WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Nerwen]

I hadn't realized how close the voting was at the time of my last post. Indeed, there was nothing to stop Nogrod saving himself by switching his vote to either Shasta or me. (Yes, that's either of us, thankyou, Might.)

So– was his Rikae vote a suicide, or was it arranged for someone to cast another vote for one of the other candidates, and something went wrong? I don't know. Perhaps he simply lost track and didn't realize he could still save himself.

This makes it all the stranger that the wolves killed Shasta. You'd think they'd have every interest in keeping him alive.



OT: I'm sorry to hear you're not well, Saucepan Man.

[mormegil]

So in reading over what Macalaure has said about Nogrod is interesting. His sole focus from essentially the first post was Nogrod and Nogrod alone. There is one post in which he considers a few others but it's merely a cursory glance.

Rereading his arguments I find some lucidity in them, which for day 1 is rather surprising. I have been vacillating between him being innocent and guilty and have leaned both ways and frustratingly I'm no nearer to a conclusion. It's irritating too because I am trying to look at others but I really want some finality in my mind. I will continue to give it more thought. In the meantime I notice that SpM has given a response to The Might that is almost identical to what I would give.

Originally Posted by SpM

Unless, of course he and Nerwen are fellow Wolves. Which could explain why Nogrod didn’t vote for her. Although it doesn’t explain why he didn’t vote for Shasta.

It may not have mattered who he voted for at that point. For convinience I'm going to copy the voting list SpM already included.

Boro: ++Kath (Kath 1)
Mac: ++Nogrod (Kath 1, Nogrod 1)
SpM: ++Nogrod (Kath 1, Nogrod 2)
Kath: ++Nerwen (Kath 1, Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1)
Farael: ++Shasta (Kath 1, Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1, Shasta 1)
Boro: --Kath (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1, Shasta 1)
Valier: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 2, Shasta 1)
Rikae: ++Shasta (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 2, Shasta 2)
Shasta: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 2)
Morm: ++Boro (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 2, Boro 1)
Nerwen: ++Shasta (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Isabellkya: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Aganzir: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Nogrod: ++Rikae (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Legate: ++Boro (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 2, Rikae 1)
Shasta: --Nerwen, ++Nogrod (Nogrod 4, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Legate: --Boro, ++Nogrod (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Eomer: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Boro: ++Shasta (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 4, Shasta 4, Boro 1, Rikae 1)

The legate switch vote is interesting as it essentially put away Nogrod and if Nerwen is a wolf it could be argued that Legate is also one and that his vote was to help prove innocence. If Boro or Eomer (not both) is a wolf that could explain why they didn't vote Nogrod but I think I'm off base and geting into unrealistic scenarios...however with that said Eomer and Boromir are perfect candidates to pull off the most unrealistic of scenarios.

Looking at earlier voting, there seems to be a lot of 'safe' votes honestly. It became very clear that there were only 3 legitimate candidates for day 1 and it would be very helpful to know what they were....we do know 2 of the 3 so in that regard the wolves helped us out a bit by killing Shasta. Knowing if Nerwen is a wolf would help tremendously in figuring out the voting pattern.

Speaking of Nerwen she still seems to be a top suspect, which I feel is good as she hasn't sat right with me but I haven't done much independent investigative work on her as I've been focused elsewhere. Honestly, I know this sounds callous, I suggest lynching Nerwen to figure out what she is and I suspect there is a good chance she is a wolf. A lot of questions would be answered. Of course, we shouldn't kill her unless there is sufficient suspicion which I feel there is a good deal of so far. I hope to be able to review her a bit more on my own soon. If I do, it will likely be much later in the day though. Can anybody help me out here?

Although now I'm looking at things a bit differently...Would the wolves, assuming Nerwen is a wolf, have all voted for one of their own? If not, it doesn't make sense to kill Shasta. ARGH! I feel I keep talking myself in circles...I'm really just typing as I think so sorry for my endless ramblings as I sit here and stare at the voting record trying to make some sense of it.

[Boromir88]

Well, to be honest, I was trying to save Nogrod...as I indicated in my last post voting for Shasta. I never like last second bandwagons, they worry me and usually turn out bad. This one happened to be a pleasant surprise, but in the spur of the moment I figured Nogrod was innocent and didn't like the votes piling up against him.

Now, onto whether Mac and Nogrod conspired a lynching. I highly doubt it. For the moment, I think Mac's sharp instincts were on and he genuinely bagged a wolf in the beginning, it wouldn't be the first time. I would hate to lynch him today when I think there are far more devilish looking people (for example, morm who I was going to vote for yesterday, but doing so would have turned out to be a waste...and today he hasn't done any good for himself by jumping out early and trying to push the Mac-Nogrod thing...or I find those who hardly had any interaction with Nogrod - Isabell, The Might, Valier - far more wolfish looking than those who aggressively went after him yesterday).

Wolves enter into a village with a tremendous advantage, they know who's side everyone is on...we don't. Why would they wish to lessen their numbers right off the start, especially since Day 1 is a "lottery"? I've seen some clever wolves, like Fea and Kuru, throw out jests and jokes in the beginning with eachother, but a wolf sacrificing himself on day 1 from the start? That's something I've never seen. Now, maybe towards the end with the wolves ability to PM Nogrod told his pals he wanted to be lynched...but Mac was onto Nogrod from the very beginning. And I'm thinking Mac, being the instinctive innocent he is, noticed something wasn't right with Nogrod and justly went after him. There are far more wolvish looking things than some crackpot theory that Mac and Nogrod planned this from the beginning.

Let's not forget that yesterday, I believe the possibility that Mac was a wolf was started by Aganzir and there was considerable discussion about it. Is Aganzir a wolf? I don't know, as far as her I'm unsure. I'm simply pointing out that was discussed yesterday and it's possible the wolves would want to come out and try to push that view...which is why I think morm is another wolf.

Also, I'm suspicious of those who had very little interaction with Nogrod yesterday. Granted these individuals didn't post as much as others, but they could be quiet wolves trying to distance themselves. I'm more afraid of them than I am of the slight possibility that Mac and Nogrod planned all that yesterday. Those like Eomer, Isabell, Valier, and The Might...but the one I keep going back to is morm. I find it interesting that Nogrod had morm pegged on his "innocent list" yet I believe that is the only time Nogrod mentioned him, and I don't believe morm had much interaction with Nogrod either. Nogrod both had interactions with Rikae and Legate, but not morm.

edit: crossed with morm

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Now, onto whether Mac and Nogrod conspired a lynching.

Why would they wish to lessen their numbers right off the start, especially since Day 1 is a "lottery"? I've seen some clever wolves, like Fea and Kuru, throw out jests and jokes in the beginning with eachother, but a wolf sacrificing himself on day 1 from the start? That's something I've never seen.

This is something I have seen and that is why I wanted to make sure we consider the possibility.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Also, I'm suspicious of those who had very little interaction with Nogrod yesterday. Granted these individuals didn't post as much as others, but they could be quiet wolves trying to distance themselves. I'm more afraid of them than I am of the slight possibility that Mac and Nogrod planned all that yesterday.

I agree with this Boro, but the problem with it is one day 1 people tend to get ignored because there are 18 total of us. There also needs to be some consideration given to the length of time some of us had. It is difficult enough to talk about every other villager on day 1 but during the middle of a holiday it's a tall request. So what I am asking is that you consider this as suspicion or evidence but do not solely base your theories on this...especially on day 1.

Originally Posted by Boro

Well, to be honest, I was trying to save Nogrod...as I indicated in my last post voting for Shasta

I find this as genuine, honestly.

[Boromir88]

Before I get to bed another thing about Nogrod that came to me...

There was another village when I was the seer and Nogrod was a wolf...we had lynched two wolves and Nogrod, being the sly wolf he was cast, crucial votes to get both of them lynched. So wolves voting for eachother isn't something new, but I did notice a behavior of Nogrod's that might prove useful. I never dreamt of Nogrod in that village, I assumed he was innocent because of his voting record, since I never went after Nogrod and he buddied up to me. But those who suspected him, and were after him, he aggressively lashed back and accused them.

As a wolf a couple times, those people who are onto you can be a real thorn in your side. It takes a bold wolf to kill a thorn in your side at night, because then you look bad the next day. The best way then, if you're a wolf and you have someone suspecting you, to get them lynched. You buddy up to those who trust you and try to lynch those who are a pain in the butt. That's what Nogrod did when I remember him last as a wolf...just something else to consider in the whole Mac-Nogrod, who are the other wolves, scheme of things.

[Nerwen]

Morm, before you decide to suspect me, please go back and look at the reasons people gave for voting me yesterDay. Apart from Shasta's open self-defence vote, they're all really strange. I think I'm being objective when I say that I did not do anything to warrant getting so many votes.

EDIT: fixed bolding.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by mormegil

It may not have mattered who he voted for at that point. For convinience I'm going to copy the voting list SpM already included.

But it actually does matter, because in this game it's the last one to reach the total that gets it. So he could have got Shasta or me lynched quite easily, as long as he waited until there was no time left for anyone else to vote.

[Valier]

Well I'm off to bed and not too much progress has been made today. We are back to the 24 hour cycle now right? So day ends at 10:00 pm GMT right? If so I won't have alot of time in the morning to read everything and vote and I won't be back till a couple hours past the deadline....So it looks like I will have to vote for someone now.

Uggg I'm not too sure, hopefully if anything changes overnight I will have time to change my vote before I go to work if needed.

++Aganzir

Not too much to go on, but circumstances surrounding her makes her suspicious in my books. Next on my list would be The Might or Macalaure. So if Aganzir has some good points before I go I may just change.

Sorry 'bout the flip-floppy but it's been fairly quiet and I'm just unsure.

[Nerwen]

Valier, what are your reasons for suspecting The Might?

[Isabellkya]

Boro: ++Kath (Kath 1)
Mac: ++Nogrod (Kath 1, Nogrod 1)
SpM: ++Nogrod (Kath 1, Nogrod 2)
Kath: ++Nerwen (Kath 1, Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1)
Farael: ++Shasta (Kath 1, Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1, Shasta 1)
Boro: --Kath (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1, Shasta 1)
Valier: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 2, Shasta 1)
Rikae: ++Shasta (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 2, Shasta 2)
Shasta: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 2)
Morm: ++Boro (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 2, Boro 1)
Nerwen: ++Shasta (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Isabellkya: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Aganzir: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Nogrod: ++Rikae (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Legate: ++Boro (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 2, Rikae 1)
Shasta: --Nerwen, ++Nogrod (Nogrod 4, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 2, Rikae 1)
Legate: --Boro, ++Nogrod (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Eomer: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Boro: ++Shasta (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 4, Shasta 4, Boro 1, Rikae 1)

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Wolves enter into a village with a tremendous advantage, they know who's side everyone is on...we don't. Why would they wish to lessen their numbers right off the start, especially since Day 1 is a "lottery"? I've seen some clever wolves, like Fea and Kuru, throw out jests and jokes in the beginning with eachother, but a wolf sacrificing himself on day 1 from the start? That's something I've never seen. Now, maybe towards the end with the wolves ability to PM Nogrod told his pals he wanted to be lynched...but Mac was onto Nogrod from the very beginning. And I'm thinking Mac, being the instinctive innocent he is, noticed something wasn't right with Nogrod and justly went after him. There are far more wolvish looking things than some crackpot theory that Mac and Nogrod planned this from the beginning.

It is hardly unheard of for wolves to have crackpot strategies. Strictly speaking in terms of the votes; at the present time I am having a hard time thinking Mac is a wolf, purely for the reason that he was the first to vote for [b]Nogrod[/]. It would be a very risky strategy, to place the first vote on a fellow wolf; at the risk of a bandwagon following.. especially in this case since Nogrod had been under the suspicion light. I think that there is atleast one wolf amongst the Nogrod voters. It is quite common to place a vote for your fellow wolf when they are at the risk of being lynched.

SPM was the second to place a vote against Nogrod, and it was quite early. I am doubting he is a wolf.. yet it is quote possible he could be.

Aganzir's vote against Nogrod is a bit confusing if she is wolfy. When she placed her vote, Nerwen had the most votes, followed by Shasta. If she is wolfish, then I wonder if something had been said to make her place her vote against her wolfmate; rather than go with one of the others who were more in danger of being lynched. Yet the entire timing of the vote, worries me.

Legate's vote against [b]Nogrod[/] I think jumps at me the most. Nogrod had already been in the lead, yet if wolfy why put that extra vote? To cover a behind when lynched?

Nerwen still bothers me, some of her posts have just been odd.

hmmm, more re-reading to do.

Forgot some tags.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Legate's vote against [b]Nogrod[/] I think jumps at me the most. Nogrod had already been in the lead, yet if wolfy why put that extra vote? To cover a behind when lynched?

If I am not mistaken, Legate's vote was the one which put Nogrod in the lead.

Why does it jump out at you?

[Isabellkya]

Shasta's retract voting of you, and voting of Nogrod put him in the lead.

It is odd, because he seemed to do it; to save you. Yet, you didn't need saving.

[Nerwen]

Ah, you're right– but look at the times on those posts near the deadline. Votes were coming thick and fast and crossing each other, so he probably thought it was up to him.

Anyway, Nogrod had just started acting in an extremely wolfish manner. If I'd been there I think I'd have changed my vote to him too, to make sure. It all seems quite reasonable to me.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, so it seems things are stirring.
First, I looked at Mac-Nog discussion yesterDay. I find it quite hard to believe that it would be a wolf-on-wolf debate: both Mac and Nog are very clever and experienced players of course, but planning such a thing would be rather risky. I find it hard to believe that it would be a plan (either a plan that got out of hand, being very risky in itself, or very hardly a plan prepared the whole time). So whichever direction the wind blows, I am inclined to look at Mac as on an innocent now.

I believe yesterDay, the wolves simply failed to save Nogrod from the gallows. Concerning his vote for Rikae, I believe it was simply a waste of a vote - unless it was a wolf-on-wolf safe vote, which is also an option (a safe one at that time; though I would expect Nog to act in a more clever way. Though maybe actually this is a clever way). Anyway, the matter now is that it was not Nog's last vote. Yet there is this why, why not to retract? Nog could have voted Nerwen or Shasta and saved his neck. So, why? The logical reason about Nerwen would be indeed that she is a fellow wolf and it wouldn't help. Yet why not Shasta, about whom we know was innocent? There is the possibility that (since Eomer's vote came first) he did not notice vote for Shasta by the time he posted, and he thought it was too late. In that case it would be logical that Nerwen could be a fellow wolf whom Nog did not want to vote for. The yesterDay's votes for Nerwen were strange, as I said, and I did not find anything suspicious about her back then. Yet there is something strange, something illogical, something unusual and creepy going around here. I get the feeling the wolves want to get us all puzzled.

Okay, whatever. I don't know if I will be here for DL toDay, and in case I won't, I will have to vote very soon, in about an hour at maximum. So please, if anyone is around here and has anything useful to say, please do so. At least thank tp for retractable votes, if I return, I can always change my vote yet depending on the events that happen meanwhile. Here are some thoughts on people overall:

Farael - quite reasonable, helpful, seeming genuine. I can agree with most of his comments and this far, I can't see anything suspicous about him.

Mac - as I said, given starting the bandwaggon and his exchanges with Nog and even the overall behavior I don't think he is a wolf.

Rikae - like I said yesterDay, seems more or less normal to me. Nothing necessarily suspicious this far.

Boro - his vote yesterDay made me feel better about him. Yet there are still things that do not sit well with me. But, I am now lowering my suspicions on him, and wait how things go in the future.

SpM - not sure what to think of him. He is seeming to be helpful, as always, reasonable, as always, and he is this always whether he is innocent or wolf. Need to form clearer picture of him yet.

Mormegil - once again one of the vocal, helpful and reasonable seeming players. Nothing sinister-looking about him this far.

Aganzir - not sure about this one. I am somewhat critical towards Mac's theory. Yet, Agan-wolf is always clever and able of good tacticising, and had they been together as wolves with Nog, well, that would make two of them capable of maneuvering through Day 1 in keeping the needed attitude towards each other. So, Aganzir remains on the edge of the orange zone for me.

Eomer is an enigma to me, yet an eyebrow-raising enigma. His vote at the end of the Day could be, in my opinion, the wolvish vote to try to save Noggins. Eomer participated so little till now, so I don't want to jump to anything till I see more from him, but the little he did makes me wary.

Nerwen. Ah well. Yesterday I did not find anything suspicious about her. Yet... I can't get out of my head the possible wolvish plot and Nog not retracting to Nerwen because he would kill a fellow wolf by it. Honestly, I don't find anything much suspicious on her, but I know she is very careful and as a wolf she would surely be a dangerous and sneaky one. I don't know what to think.

Isabell in this game very interestingly seems to act in very vocal, reasonable and helpful-looking manner. I haven't seen this side of her, and I am quite happy about it. This far, I don't find anything that would seem suspicious on her, at least not on first sight.

Kath made me wary yesterDay and she did not appear toDay still, so I will wait to form my opinions on her more precisely.

Valier is acting in a very confusing way, I must say, and the way she votes, especially, makes me feel uneasy. Her reasoning, as I said even yesterDay, is not quite... logical. Also the way she voted yesterDay could seem like simply supporting a "challenge bandwaggon" against Nogrod. And toDay, she once again votes as if under some planned scenario - "Aganzir seems that she will gather suspicion today, let's vote her", you know what I mean? I don't like that.

About The Might I am not sure what to think. In all games I played with him before, he used to act... how to say that... less independantly Could it be that he has some outer guidance? Also his yesterday's suspicions (well, they were not exactly suspicions, rather some "thoughts ventilated") on Shasta could also have been a way to join the generally suspected subject. There is something wrong about this TM, and I am somewhat concerned with him this time.

Oh, and

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Legate's vote against [b]Nogrod[/] I think jumps at me the most. Nogrod had already been in the lead, yet if wolfy why put that extra vote? To cover a behind when lynched?

If you look back then you'll see I cross-posted. So in fact, technically I was the one who put Nogrod in the lead. It was not extra vote, it was THE vote (looking from my point of view).

EDIT: x-ed with Isa & Nerwen.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

There is a simple explanation for my vote and the lack of reasoning that went with it. It was Christmas morning; I woke at 10.15; I made breakfast and opened presents until 10.45; I had 15 minutes to skim-read the thread.

It was difficult. I didn't think Nogrod was a wolf (nice bit of judgment from me there!) and Nerwen had at least caused me to ponder (as I had pointed out the day before). I didn't want to waste my vote on someone else who couldn't be lynched. That's why I voted Nerwen instead of Nogrod.

With my somewhat biased view on things () this makes me look quite innocent. If a wolf is leading the votes 5-3 (I believe those were the numbers) with two minutes to go before deadline, why would a fellow wolf appear and mount a comically late attempt to save him? Not voting is suspicious; throwaway votes are suspicious. At the time I would rather have seen Nerwen lynched. I now see how wrong I was.

[Aganzir]

What an exciting feeling. I just received my first WW vote ever.

Is there any chance the wolves thought Shasta was the seer? Vague accusations against Nogrod in his very first post, and he backs off quickly when people ask if it was a joke. Someone mentioned he looked nervous. "And even if he isn't the seer", the wolves thought, "the village will wonder all the day why he was killed."

Originally Posted by Mac

Why does she put so much pressure on Shasta? If this is a campaign to get another vote for Nogrod, then why does she only address him?

I suspected Nogrod more than Shasta. Nerwen looked more innocent than either of them. I had said I'd switch to Shasta if it started to seem Nerwen would be lynched, and reminded Shasta of this. (By the way, it was Shasta, not me, who was the first one to notice you two were so suspicious of each other so early.)
I think you're not over-interpreting, Mac, but deliberately trying to find reasons to think I'm a wolf, and that is because you'd rather I spent my time defending myself than going on suspecting you.

Ok. Another thing. Nogrod's post #164 and Rikae. Why did Noggie start suspecting her then? It could be a last-minute case against a fellow wolf. It could be a last-minute case against an innocent that is supposed to look like a case against a fellow-wolf. A bluff, double-bluff, triple-bluff?
I thought this would be good to bring forward. I don't suspect Rikae at the moment, but it always means something if a wolf makes a case against someone when it's clearly too late to lynch him/her anymore.
For example, maybe the wolf wants us to think it was a case against a fellow so that we lynch a player who is dangerous for the pack...

edit: xed with Legate and Eomer

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

"Nogrod's first post was, strangely, shorter than mine. What does this say about him?

-Nogrod is hiding "off the radar". He's obviously a wolf.
-Nogrod is too busy to pay much attention to this game. A perfect cover for a wolf.
-Nogrod is letting us come to our own conclusions, without exerting too much influence. Waiting for the right moment to make an opportune push... much like a wolf might do.

I think we have our answer here, don't you?

The herbs have made me loopy, the herbs have made me loopy.... "

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Maybe the wolves thought it was a straight-forward seer hint. Seems most likely to me. If that's true then I'm not sure what more Shasta said that worried them, if anything.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I found out I have less time on my hands as I spent too much time writing the post above. No time. I would have needed some more time to sort things out, yet there is none.
Therefore, I vote

++Valier

for what I said above. I really hope I will be able to return before DL, though I cannot say that for sure nor even grant if I'd have time to read things properly even if I return. Good luck.

[Boromir88]

I don't know whether I'll be back before the deadline today...usually I can be but today I have to run my car into the mechanics to get a wheel bering, that I hear can take a couple hours.

Valier is acting in a very confusing way, I must say, and the way she votes, especially, makes me feel uneasy. Her reasoning, as I said even yesterDay, is not quite... logical.~Legate

Valier use logic? Well, you could say she uses her own form of logic, it's not the logic you use however.

hmmm...I think I'm going to vote for:

++mormegil

[Nerwen]

I'd just like to talk about Kath, and her attacks on me yesterday, which I think are quite wolfish:

Early in the Day, Nogrod said

Originally Posted by Nogrod

the cursed one who could be our toughest enemy later in the game... as even the even the word of the seer can't be trusted 100% in the end.

and I replied,

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hey, come back! Are you saying the Seer could BE the cursed?

Now, for a moment there I actually had thought that's what he meant. (In fact I'm still not quite sure he didn't.) I asked in a slightly over-the-top way because, well, that was the mood at the time. Everybody was half-joking, trying to get things started.

Then, later in the Day, along comes Kath:

Originally Posted by Kath

Nerwen, well I know she's naturally loud but she seems unnaturally jumpy at the moment. When she screamed at whoever it was to come back because they'd made a comment about the Seer possibly being the cursed, which they actually hadn't. I know that she hasn't played with a cursed before (well I say I know, I'm pretty sure) but the wording in tp's early posts seemed pretty clear. Could have been a sudden 'what the-' reaction but it seems over the top

Now there's two things I'd like to draw attention to in this post. One is her use of hyperbole ("screamed"), the other is how careful she is to avoid mentioning Nogrod's name ("whoever it was"). I think she must have just read those early posts– did she really not know who had (apparently) made the original suggestion?

Then Nogwolf himself gets in on the act:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Nerwen: She's calm and makes good and valuable points, especially about the wolves (which could go either way). Her lightness of tone sounds not the most comfortable to my ear. If someone could be accused of trying to lead the discussion into the nonsense -area it would be Nerwen with her suggestion of the seer being possibly the cursed one.

So I tried to explain:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Regarding my controversial Cursed Seer theory: okay, yes, it was silly– but it was early in the Day, nobody was being serious– so I find it a bit odd the way Nogrod and Kath have reacted.

But that still isn't good enough for Kath:

Originally Posted by Kath

Nerwen, you say your suggestion of a cursed Seer wasn't serious, but it certainly felt it. People were throwing out ideas and though they were unlikely scenarios (such as tp telling certain people to post certain things in the pre-game discussion) they were meant seriously, so I don't see that you can put your own unlikely theory in the same category if you meant it in a facetious way.

I really couldn't be bothered taking her up on that. I was starting to feel that she wanted to make me spend the whole Day defending myself, all because of a trivial comment.

Then I said this to Aganzir (in the course of a post that was mainly about other people, and replying to her suggestion that Nogrod and Mac were wolves):

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Aganzir, I've thought of that too. Their reactions do seem over the top. I'm not ready to vote for either of them yet, though, but I'm watching them.

On that note, what about the possibility that Boro and Kath are both wolves?

Kath's response (posted shortly afterwards):

Originally Posted by Kath

Back quickly as I've discovered I won't have a chance to vote before the deadline tomorrow. So:

++NERWEN

She was my top suspect as of my last post for her jumpiness and her confused explanation of her early theories.

Now, I just don't believe her. I don't think I was jumpy, I don't think my explanation was confused and I don't think my interpretation of Nogrod's words was unwarranted.

Oh, and if anyone cares to read through Kath's posts, I think you'll see she's been pretty jumpy herself.

EDIT: X'd with Eomer, Aganzir, Eomer again, Legate and Boromir88.

[Kath]

I've only a few minutes as we're going to lunch (I have eaten so much the past few days I'm not sure I can take anymore!) but I thought I'd answer Nerwen's points against me since I'm here and I just read them.

I said screamed because the way it was written sounded so over the top that I could practically hear you yelling in my head. I didn't put Nogrod's name because I couldn't recall who had said it. It was your reaction more than what you were reacting to that caught my attention. At the time I had to post quickly (as seems to be a recurring theme at the moment ) and so I didn't bother to look since it didn't really matter.

And you know I pretty much did want you to spend your time defending yourself. I was suspicious of you, for fair enough reasons in my own mind even if you do not believe them, and I wanted to know what you had to say for yourself. You do seem jumpy, spiky even, determined that no one should think evil of you even for a second, or at least that's how it seems. And I still think your explanation was backwards.

Nogrod's death came about in such an odd way. He is a very experienced player and knows the kind of thing that is likely to get you lynched, and that comment he made on Rikae's throwaway last line is exactly the kind of thing that will get people's attention. Now, I may be biased by my opinions above but I think it quite possible that Nog would sacrifice himself to save a wolvish Nerwen in order that for the rest of the game she might be considered mostly innocent.

I will come back later and ensure I look at other angles, as I have found to my cost many times that focusing on one individual is just not a good idea.

[Macalaure]

Some thoughts on Boromir.

Originally Posted by Boro

Wow, is this village stacked, or what? If I was a wolf I would be as scared as hell.

I think I missed this line yesterday. It does sound as if it could have come from a bold werewolf, which Boro would be.

There's been a lot of talk about the "us" thing. I think this comment looks innocentish. The "Batman" line made me grin. What is odd is that he gives a lot of valid criticism on Nogrod, but still thinks he's acting like he always does. If he thinks that, then why spend so much time on those criticism?

His vote for Kath doesn't ring an alarm for me. The way he responds to Farael's suspicions is strange. I can't say whether good strange or bad strange. I could see it both ways. In the post where he retracts from Kath he sounds rather reasonable.

He votes for known innocent Shasta instead of known evildoer Nogrod. Still, the way he gets there is understandable. Today (except for hesitating on my case against Aganzir ), he's only made statements I agree with, especially the worrisomeness of mormegil.

Conclusion? I think, at the moment, I'm leaning more towards the innocent side with Boromir, but not any more than leaning.

Originally Posted by Boro

There was another village when I was the seer and Nogrod was a wolf...we had lynched two wolves and Nogrod, being the sly wolf he was cast, crucial votes to get both of them lynched.

I remember that village vividly. It's part of the reason why I find it very probable that Nogrod told his fellows, or one at least, to cast a deciding vote against him, which Aganzir did.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I suspected Nogrod more than Shasta. Nerwen looked more innocent than either of them. I had said I'd switch to Shasta if it started to seem Nerwen would be lynched, and reminded Shasta of this.

I buy this, but I'm not sure whether it makes you less suspicious. You still gave Nogrod a deciding vote while maintaining a possibility to get out of it. I still don't understand what exactly made you suspicious of him. Your plan could have been to either look unsuspicious because of a crucial vote for a dead wolf, or to save your fellow without looking too suspicious because you at least put him into danger.
Like Nogrod, you only defended yourself against the accusations you were able to defend yourself against. But I just note it, I'm not telling you to do so now, because I'd be far more interested in regular posts by you.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Ok. Another thing. Nogrod's post #164 and Rikae. Why did Noggie start suspecting her then? It could be a last-minute case against a fellow wolf. It could be a last-minute case against an innocent that is supposed to look like a case against a fellow-wolf. A bluff, double-bluff, triple-bluff?
I thought this would be good to bring forward. I don't suspect Rikae at the moment, but it always means something if a wolf makes a case against someone when it's clearly too late to lynch him/her anymore.
For example, maybe the wolf wants us to think it was a case against a fellow so that we lynch a player who is dangerous for the pack...

I have thought myself that the attack on Rikae probably means something, but I don't think there's any point worrying about it yet.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

(quoting Shasta) "Nogrod's first post was, strangely, shorter than mine. What does this say about him?

-Nogrod is hiding "off the radar". He's obviously a wolf.
-Nogrod is too busy to pay much attention to this game. A perfect cover for a wolf.
-Nogrod is letting us come to our own conclusions, without exerting too much influence. Waiting for the right moment to make an opportune push... much like a wolf might do.

I think we have our answer here, don't you?

The herbs have made me loopy, the herbs have made me loopy.... "

I think that's pretty convincing. And it's only logical that they thought he was a gifted– I can't think of any other reason why he was killed.

Now, about Eomer himself: my current feeling is that his vote to save Nogrod was quite innocent. I think a wolf would have tried to cover himself more (firstly, by not saying he was trying to save a fellow wolf).

Then there's Valier: I think it would be nice if she gave actual reasons for her vote, as opposed to muttering vaguely about "circumstances".

I assume, though, that she's falling in with Mac's theories on Aganzir– which sound very, very forced to me. I mean, it's more than likely that there was at least one wolf among the Nogrod voters, but I don't think it was her.

EDIT: X'd with Kath and Mac.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kath

I said screamed because the way it was written sounded so over the top that I could practically hear you yelling in my head. I didn't put Nogrod's name because I couldn't recall who had said it. It was your reaction more than what you were reacting to that caught my attention. At the time I had to post quickly (as seems to be a recurring theme at the moment ) and so I didn't bother to look since it didn't really matter.

Okay, maybe you're not so wolfish as I thought, Kath. But what you did do, then, is take that post right out of context. Apparently you could never even be bothered re-reading it, but you were prepared to lynch me on the basis of it.

Originally Posted by Kath

And you know I pretty much did want you to spend your time defending yourself. I was suspicious of you, for fair enough reasons in my own mind even if you do not believe them, and I wanted to know what you had to say for yourself. You do seem jumpy, spiky even, determined that no one should think evil of you even for a second, or at least that's how it seems.

Well... I just can't see it. You, on the other hand, seemed jumpy to me– and still do. And would you have listened to anything I had to say in my own defence? Or would you have attacked me for being "defensive"?

Now that you've explained yourself I'm less inclined to think you guilty, but I can't say I'm happy about the whole thing. We'll see.

[Valier]

Well I see not much has been written while I slept. I would like to address a few things....I have explained this time and time again...I have a hard time explaining myself in these games. I read the thread and my brain comes up with weird connections. Sometimes I am unable to articulate what I found odd or suspicious about people. But I do try when it appears clearly to me.

My vote today, yes was a little hasty, as I was unsure if I would have time today to post before work. I got up a wee bit earlier and had time to read what has been said.

I think the exchange made recently between Nerwen and Kath seems odd. Why would you write up a whole post about why you defended yourself on Day one, when noone really asked? Then Kath just happens to come on after and "explains" herself and Nerwen your ok with that now and your whole posts which are all fairly close together, mean nothing now? looks orchestrated by wolves to me.

--Aganzir

++Nerwen

I'm not sure if this is the best move,and I hate to use my retract so early, but after I reread, Nerwen still looks suspicious from yesterday, more than Aganzir. and her posts today, just don't sit right with me.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Valier

My vote today, yes was a little hasty, as I was unsure if I would have time today to post before work. I got up a wee bit earlier and had time to read what has been said.

I think the exchange made recently between Nerwen and Kath seems odd. Why would you write up a whole post about why you defended yourself on Day one, when noone really asked? Then Kath just happens to come on after and "explains" herself and Nerwen your ok with that now and your whole posts which are all fairly close together, mean nothing now? looks orchestrated by wolves to me.

But that is not what happened, Valier. I wasn't explaining why I defended myself, I was giving reasons why I thought Kath might be a wolf. I said so at the top of my post. Do you actually read these things properly?

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I'd just like to talk about Kath, and her attacks on me yesterday, which I think are quite wolfish:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But that is not what happened, Valier. I wasn't explaining why I defended myself, I was giving reasons why I thought Kath might be a wolf. I said so at the top of my post. Do you actually read these things properly?

The top quote to me sounds like you are trying to make Kath look guilty because she accused you, but you in turn are doing the same. So her "attacks" on you could not be warrented? She was only giving reasons why she thought you were a wolf, aren't you doing the same thing?

And yes for the most part I do read "these things" properly! It is super early in the morning here for me and I am trying as hard as I can to be useful. So my day and vote are not wasted!!

[Aganzir]

I've just spent hours experiencing with my new Linux & don't have too much energy at the moment.

Originally Posted by Mac

I still don't understand what exactly made you suspicious of him.

Well, at least this is simple: you. Not your points against him but the argument you two were having.

I see the situation this way. Of the people alive now, I was the first one to mention Nog and Mac's dispute looked wolfish (Shasta, who noticed it first, is dead). Before Nog died, he accused & voted Rikae, possibly hoping we would think it was a wolf-on-wolf vote. I dare to guess Rikae is one of the most dangerous players for a Macwolf.
And when Nogrod is revealed to be a wolf, what does Mac do? He makes a big case against me. I'm not quite surprised. Trying to make me use my energy on defending myself rather than suspecting him. Ha, and even says I'm not defending myself enough ("only defended yourself against the accusations you were able to defend yourself against"). Doesn't work.

Originally Posted by Mac on Nog

Seriously, read everything he posts for today very critical. If you think he's innocent, listen to him, if not, then don't let him twist your mind and please don't hesitate to vote for him.

This is not something an innocent says. If Mac thinks Noggie is a wolf, why on earth does he tell others to listen to him? He's saying "Even though I think Noggie is a wolf, I hope you others won't do that. Don't pay too much attention to my opinions, I can be wrong as well."
I can't put my finger on it any better, but it was something I didn't like even when I read it on Day 1. With Nogwolf dead, it makes me feel only worse about Mac.

I must go and look for some chains in the cellar now. Surely we don't want today's victim has a chance to escape, like Nog tried to do.
Will be back some hours before the deadline.

xed with Nerwen and Valier

[The Might]

I really dislike the way Valier throws accusations around without really saying why...seems quite wolvish to me. Of course yesterDays's vote could theoretically be an orchestrated event by the wolves, but I still doubt that Nerwen is a wolf, to me she rather seems to be an innocent getting to many accusations (I know how that feels). This feeling about Nerwen's innocence is also increased by Eomer's vote for her, considering the fact that Eomer is at the time my prime suspect. His vote seems quite wolvish and this explanation toDay of why Shasta could have been chosen seems as if he knew why the Wolves did that as one of them and tried to look helpful. All in all, Eomer seems quite furry and so I feel the need to vote: ++Eomer I am not quite sure if I will be able to be back until the deadline, I shall try and if I happen to change my mind based on the posts that will follow I might also change my vote for toDay. And to Legate, this has something to do with the fact that I have vacation now and thus a lot more time on my hands. So instead of learning for some test I can think a bit more rather then just post quickly. Btw, I strangely seem no to be able to bold anything?!?!? EDIT: Also my paragraphs are all mixed together...and when I'm posting the background is grey not black as usually...and I can't use smilies`...huh?

[mormegil]

I'm to post 225 and have a few comments.

Boromir seems rather cocky about the whole thing. A few comments have been given and the manner in which he presents himself doesn't sit well with me. I also find it odd that he basically refuses to believe the possibility that Mac/Nogrod were conspiring simply because 'it's never been done before'. Seems rather weak and that he's not open to other possibilities. His votes have been without any real reason. Something stinks of wet fur with that one.

Nerwen seems rather jumpy and wolfish too honestly. Sadly I haven't been able to do the detailed review of her but from what I read the first time through I get a sense that she is up to no good.

Kath seems to be pressed for time and a little irritated that she doesn't have more, which I can understand. I think her innocent.

SpM seems genuine but he can seem that way even if he is guilty. I am thinking innocent.

Isabel gives off bad vibes to me but I am unfamiliar with her so it could be a Kath/Farael/Lommy syndrome type person for me (I usually suspect those regardless)

Eomer ,while completely touched in the head, I think is innocent.

Valier is a bit more short and less substantive than normal which is unnerving.

The Might...I have no idea

Agan...I have no idea but some good points have been brought up and I have been dupped before by her so I think more pressure on her is a good thing.

Legate seems innocent and helpful

Mac despite my thought of the Mac/Nogrod conspiracy I think he is likely innocent though he is one that I will continue to monitor more closely.

I've probably missed a few but these are the ones on my mind the most right now...I will have time later to look a bit more and vote, though digging through old posts will be improbable for me at this point.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Valier

The top quote to me sounds like you are trying to make Kath look guilty because she accused you, but you in turn are doing the same. So her "attacks" on you could not be warrented? She was only giving reasons why she thought you were a wolf, aren't you doing the same thing?

*sigh* Here we go again. Valier, I did not think Kath guilty because she accused me. I thought she was guilty because of the nature of her accusation. Do you not understand the difference?

I thought there was a real chance she might be a wolf, so I wanted to discuss it. Then she responded, after which I decided it was less likely she was a wolf. That's all.

I am getting rather sick of you throwing accusations around based on either obvious misreadings or nothing at all.

Now how about you answer my question from earlier. What is so suspicious about The Might?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

OT: I'm sorry to hear you're not well, Saucepan Man.

Thank you, but actually I’m fine. It’s my internet connection that keeps dying. I was trying to express it ‘in character’.

Originally Posted by morm

Although now I'm looking at things a bit differently...Would the wolves, assuming Nerwen is a wolf, have all voted for one of their own? If not, it doesn't make sense to kill Shasta. ARGH! I feel I keep talking myself in circles...

Hehe, I know the feeling. Something weird was happening towards the end of Day 1, I am sure, but it’s got me completely confused. As to your substantive point, if Nerwen is a Wolf, it doesn’t make any sense that they would kill Shasta. If NogWolf’s behaviour was down to the fact that NerWolf’s head was also on the block, Shasta’s proven innocence takes away any cover that she might have had in that regard. I don’t think a Wolfish Nerwen would have killed Shasta.

Originally Posted by Boro

Wolves enter into a village with a tremendous advantage, they know who's side everyone is on...we don't. Why would they wish to lessen their numbers right off the start, especially since Day 1 is a "lottery"?

Well, if Mac is a Wolf, I don’t believe that was their original intention. On this line of thinking, they would have started out trying to distance themselves, but it got out of hand when others also started suspecting Noggie, so they hatched a plan to make Mac look good by encouraging Nog’s demise. That whole thing with Nogrod’s cod reasoning against Rikae and Mac jumping on it just looks starnge to me. Were it not for that, I would be more comfortable dismissing the MacWolf theory.

Another thing about Mac. He has slightly backed off his Aganzir theory. I wonder whether that might be because it was pointed out (by Rikae, I think) that the same line of reasoning applied to him (indeed moreso, given my earlier point that a MacWolf had more to gain from Nog’s death than an AganWolf).

The other possibility is that either Aganzir or Legate is a Wolf (or both are) and agreed with Nogrod in the final hours that they would turn against him to make themselves look good. Aganzir has explained her behaviour in voting for Nog and encouraging Shasta to do so, and it looks credible. And her vote came before Nog’s strange reaction to Rikae’s Christmas song. For that reason, Legate’s vote (on the basis of Nog’s starnge Rikae vote) actually sticks to me out as the more likely Wolf-on-Wolf vote fo the two.

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Legate's vote against [b]Nogrod[/] I think jumps at me the most. Nogrod had already been in the lead, yet if wolfy why put that extra vote? To cover a behind when lynched?

I agree, but not for the reason that you have given, but rather for the reasoning above.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Anyway, Nogrod had just started acting in an extremely wolfish manner. If I'd been there I think I'd have changed my vote to him too, to make sure. It all seems quite reasonable to me.

Have you considered the possibility that Nog started behaving in an extremely Wolfish manner precisely because he wanted to give cover to a fellow Wolf to vote for him?

Originally Posted by Legate

I believe yesterDay, the wolves simply failed to save Nogrod from the gallows.

I really don’t agree with this. I am sure that there was at least one Wolf plus Noggie here at the deadline yesterDay. Given that they can communicate during the Day, they surely would have been able to save him had they wanted to.

Originally Posted by Legate

Concerning his vote for Rikae, I believe it was simply a waste of a vote - unless it was a wolf-on-wolf safe vote, which is also an option (a safe one at that time; though I would expect Nog to act in a more clever way. Though maybe actually this is a clever way).

I was thinking much the same. It is quite possible that a Wolf facing the gallows would put in a throwaway vote for a fellow Wolf to make them look good. But is it too obvious for Noggie? Either way, I don’t think that we can dismiss Rikae from the mix. She looks to have been acting fairly typically so far, but then I would expect a Wolf who was under no pressure to do exactly that.

Both Boro and Eomer have effectively ‘come clean’ and admitted that they were trying to save Noggie, because they thought him innocent. As I said earlier, if either was a Wolf and wanted to save him, they could have coordinated with Nog himself to do it. They both sound genuine enough to me so, for now, I am prepared to regard them both as putative innocents.

One villager who is beginning to concern me, however, is Valier. As we all know, she is a ‘hunch’ player, but my recollection is that she is normally quite confident in her hunches. Here, however, she seems far less sure about them. It doesn’t quite ring true to me, so I’ll be keeping my eye on her.

One final thought. If Azaelia does not post and vote toDay then, according to the phanto-mod’s rules, something bad will happen to her side. Not good if she’s innocent. But it may help us if she is a Wolf and, either way, might at least indicate which side she is on (assuming that she doesn’t get modfired as well).

[mormegil]

The more Nerwen speaks the more I think she is a jumpy wolf that feels that she needs to defend everything she does or says and any accusation thrown at her. Wolves often fall into this pitfall of getting overly jumpy and anxious and I think Nerwen has fallen into that pitall.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Thank you, but actually I’m fine. It’s my internet connection that keeps dying. I was trying to express it ‘in character’.

Well, that's good. You had me fooled.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Have you considered the possibility that Nog started behaving in an extremely Wolfish manner precisely because he wanted to give cover to a fellow Wolf to vote for him?

No, I hadn’t. That’s something to think about.

Originally Posted by mormegil

The more Nerwen speaks the more I think she is a jumpy wolf that feels that she needs to defend everything she does or says and any accusation thrown at her. Wolves often fall into this pitfall of getting overly jumpy and anxious and I think Nerwen has fallen into that pitall.

So I guess you've had an attack of total amnesia about your own behaviour yesterDay, Morm?

Anyway, I have to vote now, in case I'm not able to later. While there are a number of people I suspect, I think Valier is the most prominent. I know people say she has "hunches", but this time, at least, I think she's using her reputation. It's all so much easier when you don't have to give proper reasons for your suspicions.

++Valier.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

There are so many villagers that discussion can get a bit complicated. So far I've backed off a bit and been more of an observer. This allows slightly less jumbled debate (because there is less of it). However, in the event of my death nothing much will have been achieved by my life (other than my beautiful grave which I have already dug), so that's why I'm going to summarize my current thoughts on all the villagers.

Aganzir: Clever. I think she's good to have around, and I have agreed with her on a few points.

Azaelia: N/A

Boromir88: Seems quite typical of him. Good for discussion. Could well be wolvish but if so will be found out later by his busy mouth.

Farael: Again, good for discussion. Considers everything. Useful for now.

Isabellkya: Clever; not too involved. Possibly playing observer like me. Will probably be much suspected later on.

Kath: Seems pretty innocent to me. I think Nerwen is wrong about her.

Legate: Doesn't feel too comfortable to me. I will watch him closely.

Macalaure: The Nogrod thing bothers me, and if Mac is innocent I along with many others will feel embarrassed at suspecting the man who did more than anything to bring the foul wolf down; but... he's creepy, that jailer.

Mormegil: For now I trust Mormegil. Fairly comfortable about him.

Nerwen: Still unsure. SPM made good point about wolf-Nerwen probably keeping Shasta alive. She seems a bit wrong to me, but I'm leaning towards thinking she's innocent.

Rikae: Exactly like Mac -- seems creepy to me. Not sure why but I never trust her.

The Might: Voted for me which I must disagree with. But I don't think he's a wolf. Worth watching maybe.

Saucepan Man: Sometimes he stirs me the wrong way; but often I find myself just agreeing with whatever he says. Here and now, I'm pretty sure he's innocent. It would be mad to lynch him now anyway.

Valier: There is no other player I find so wolvish everytime I see him/her. Valier worries me endlessly and I can never really explain it. She has a furry soul.

[Macalaure]

I am suspicious of the way morm's been mentioning me over the day. Everybody but him more or less quickly made up their mind about the Mac-Nog-wolves thing, even if they ended up with only a 'maybe'. Morm first puts me in the spotlight in the very first post - without any reason given. Then he mentions me again later - in an astoundingly fence-sitting way (and at the top of his post 202). It appears as if the Mac-Nog theory is the way he'd like to go, but is afraid to really pursue this path without properly testing the waters first. Later again, when only few people went this way, he backs off and declares me likely innocent.
I'm also suspicious of the way morm tried to get to friendly terms with Boro in 204.

About Aganzir I said enough. Saucepan, yes I backed away a little from her. This is exactly because of what you noted, too: her explanation sounds credible. She rings less alarms than Nogrod did yesterday, so I won't campaign against her like I did against him. I still think she's the most suspicious one at the moment.

I have yet to see a convincing case against Nerwen. The bandwaggon that seems to be slowly forming itself reminds me of the one that just lynched her innocent mother on Day 1.

I'm not sure what to do with Valier. She usually suspects and vote with little conventional reason, and I was happy to see her vote for Aganzir, but now she retracted to Nerwen. I think she's one to keep in the corner of one's eye, but there's nothing I could say about her yet.

I'm also at a loss concerning Isabellkya and Kath.

No or little alarms there are from Farael, Legate, Rikae, Saucepan, the Might, Boro, and Eomer. The number of innocent-looking people alone suggests that I'm probably wrong about one of them...

[Rikae]

It turns out that I'll have far less time today than I thought I would, so I fear I'll have to vote soon.
This debate between Nerwen/Kath/Valier looks ugly to me. None of them are really making any sense -Nerwen's original points about Kath seemed quite solid to me (the wording of "screamed" seems odd to me, too, and I don't see why Nerwen's confusion about the rules should have looked so suspicious to Kath yesterday), and I don't really see why she dropped it so quickly, as Kath's explanation really is no explanation at all. Still, I agree that a wolf-Nerwen would have been unlikely to kill Shasta.

Then Nerwen goes for Valier in a tone I don't quite approve of, but for reasons that I have to agree with, again. I can't see how Valier managed to misread Nerwen's points against Kath so flagrantly, and hunches aside, I simply don't trust this "no explanations" style of play. Macalaure has tracked down wolves by pure intuition as well (in other games - I don't quite trust him now), but at least he tries to find some factual support for his "hunches" rather than expecting the rest of us to go along with them simply because he says so.

At this point, my vote is likely to go to Macalaure, whose suspicions toward Aganzir simply have too little to back them up (why Aganzir? He seems to be just trying to convince us it's possible for her to be a wolf, without telling us why it's likely), or to Valier, who indeed seems to be "using her reputation", and her misinterpretation of Nerwen's post seems more like a deliberate misrepresentation to me.

I would also like one thing clarified (sorry if I missed something): Boro, you say you changed your vote to Shasta to save Nogrod. Why, then, didn't you switch to Nerwen instead?

EDIT: X'd with Mac

[Kath]

Rikae, my suspicion of Nerwen has nothing to do with confusion about the rules, it was just the way she reacted. Basically my suspicion of her rests on the idea that she was being completely over the top. I like that she is defending herself because I think it possible that the two of us are seeing things from completely different points of view and that's causing the problem. Which is also why I wanted you to keep answering me yesterDay Nerwen, I would not have said you were being 'overly defensive' because I wanted an explanation. Your lack of one is what finally convinced me to vote for you.

Oh, and speaking of that, I was going over the posts from yesterDay and you said that I voted for you right after you came up with a Boro/Kath wolf theory and that that made me suspicious. Can I ask why because I didn't entirely understand that.

But, now, as interesting as this all is I do need to take a look at the rest of the village while I actually have some time (everyone is now too stuffed to demand my attention!). So let's go for that tried and tested method, a nice list.

Aganzir ~ short but subtantial. I'll have to have a look at why people think she's suspicious in a bit because I haven't seen that and am inclined to think her innocent at the moment.

Zali ~ sadly non-applicable.

Boro ~ really not sure about him. He takes a comment by someone and then turns it into a generalised piece of advice. There was some more individual stuff later though.

Eomer ~ well he had a point about arguing yourself in circles. Still, I always want to see more from him. I know he observes, as I usually do, but a few more words would be nice.

Farael ~ as I said yesterDay he has actually been pretty reasonable. I'm not sure that I've seen him evil before though, and he is playing a little differently to normal, so maybe there is something there. He hasn't latched on to anyone to lynch yet and that's giving me pause for thought. He's been flicking between people and that just doesn't seem like him.

Izzy ~ not a lot of substance there.

Legate ~ there was some suspicion of his for his pre-game theory but I don't think there's much reasoning there. It was something to say to start off the Day and get people talking. Again he seemed to be being pretty reasonable.

Mac ~ I don't know. I just don't. I don't think I've ever been able to read Mac and I simply can't make up my mind about him.

morm ~ is feeling innocent to me, which has me worried (). What has me even more worried is that he actually has the same suspicions as I do. We'll have to see how that goes.

Nerwen ~ we know my feelings here.

Rikae ~ she does seem to be twisting words somewhat, at least when it comes to the argument between Nerwen and myself.

Might ~ I would like to know why if Shasta was guilty I would be too, that was an interesting comment. Also, within the space of about a minute he seems to change his mind over Nerwen, not sure if Might is the flip-floppy type but it was definitely odd.

Sauce ~ ... well, it's Sauce! What am I supposed to do? The Seer could reveal him as innocent as I'd still be suspicious. I may reserve judgement for now as we've seen so little of him.

Valier ~ as I recall I accused her of playing on her reputation last game and she turned out to be innocent so I'd like to give her the benefit of the doubt. Also, she seems to be defending the way she plays rather than advocating it this game.

Hmm, that isn't quite as comprehensive as I'd like it to be but I have to go again. I will just quickly outline my suspicions, though not in any particular order.

Suspicious:
Nerwen
Farael
Rikae
Might

Innocent:
Valier
Legate
Aganzir

No idea:
Sauce
morm
Mac
Izzy
Eomer
Boro
Zali <-- obviously.

Given a little more time I should be able to cut down that 'no idea' list a bit because it is way too long. I would really love for Izzy and Eomer to be a bit more vocal because I want to put them on the innocent list as I'm leaning that way, but I want a bit more information first.

[The Saucepan Man]

At the moment, I am toying with voting for one of yesterDay’s Nog voters. But I don’t want to focus too much on one aspect of the game, so my current thoughts on everyone are as follows.

Aganzir: I think that there is some merit in the theory that she colluded with Noggie to get him lynched and thus acquire a mask of innocence. However, because her vote came before Nog’s spurious case against Rikae and because her explanation for her vote seems credible, I am less inclined to think her guilty than some of the others who voted for Nog. Other than that, she seems to be making sense.

Azaelia: No show.

Boromir88: I am inclined to trust him for now, for the reasons stated earlier. And I agree with Eomer that, being a talkative soul, a Wolfish Boro will get himself into trouble sooner or later.

Farael: Farael seems to be genuine so far, coming up with ideas and throwing out theories to test the water. I would like to hear more from him toDay but, other than that, no major concerns.

Isabellkya: I haven’t got much of a read on her yet. She hasn’t really said or done anything controversial, which worries me slightly, and is liable to be overlooked, if we’re not careful. But I have no real reason to suspect her as yet.

Kath: I am slightly worried about Kath. Her case against Nerwen looks to have been built on weak foundations, yet she persists with it. I have a vague suspicion that the Wolves may have picked Nerwen as a lynch candidate toDay, using the fact that Nog failed to vote for her to save himself, and Kath has added that as one of her reasons for suspecting Nerwen.

Legate: If there was a late Wolfish vote for Nogrod, it may well be here. Legate’s reaction to the Nog-Rikae thing could well have been contrived to make him look good. Also, he too raised doubts about Nerwen on the basis of Nog not retracting to vote for her. I would like to hear more of an explanation from him as to why he switched his vote to Nog.

Macalaure: I am still unsure about this Nog-Mac theory, but I have said more than enough about it already. Suffice to say that I think it a possibility and so could see myself voting for Mac toDay.

Mormegil: I could go either way on morm. I suspected him yesterDay for his strange (to me) accusations of Farael and Rikae. But, it was Day 1 and he seems to have come up with some more solid ideas toDay.

Nerwen: I can see what others mean when they say that she is coming across as jumpy and nervy, and I am not sure what to make of her spat with Kath. However, I still think it unlikely that a Wolfish Nerwen would have slain Shasta. Of the two, Kath concerns me more.

Rikae: Other than Nog’s vote for her, I have no reason to suspect her. However, as I said earlier, I would expect a Wolfish Rikae to act normally, especially when under no pressure. She suspects Mac, which I find interesting. Nog put forward the theory yesterDay that she and Mac are Wolves together and, while he undoubtedly did so with Wolfish intent, I wouldn’t put it past him to tell a truth so as to conceal it, particularly if he was already planning with his fellows to contrive his own demise.

The Might: I have no idea at all about the Might. I think that he is on the wrong track with Eomer but, whether Wolfishly so, I cannot tell.

Eomer: As with Boro, I am inclined to trust him now for reasons stated earlier. It also helps that his thoughts on everyone are quite similar to my own.

Valier: Valier has given very little away about her suspicions, other than to involve herself in the Kath-Nerwen spat, on the side of Kath. As explained earlier, she does not seems as confident in her hunches as normal, which could indicate Wolifshness. Of the non-Nog voters, she is probably my main suspect at present.