WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hey, come back! Are you saying the Seer could BE the cursed?

I believe he meant the Seer can See an innocent person one Night and the next Night the person is infected and the "known innocent" becomes a werewolf. That is a thing one has to bear in mind, really.

The funny thing is that I guess we are not even going to learn, if there is no Night kill, whether it was luck (Ranger protection) or a big problem for us (somebody turned to a wolf instead of being killed).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Farael

Besides, he said that he did not PM the roles up until he had a full complement of players

Where does he say that, though? I can't find it.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The funny thing is that I guess we are not even going to learn, if there is no Night kill, whether it was luck (Ranger protection) or a big problem for us (somebody turned to a wolf instead of being killed).

Yes, I'd thought of that.

All I can say is this: if there's a "no-kill" Night before we've got any wolves, really watch out for bandwagons the next Day. I mean– if there's five wolves, I should think they could lynch at will.

Edit: X'd with Legate, Farael and Nogrod.

[Valier]

Ok well it's day one....uggg not much to say I guess just yet, seems everyone is discussing the rules of the game. I tend to like to go with the flow, I am sure Phantom has some plans up his sleeve (which by I mean his "twists")

I don't think lingering too long on the semantics of the game will be of much help at this time. I am sure this is going to be a sort of live in the moment game, because you never know when something drastic may happen. I don't see the point of worrying about the cursed villager now, it may never happen, the cursed may do a good job and not get killed. Remember they are just an Ordo to begin with. It is something to keep in mind, but why dwell on it.
Still it does give something to talk about on dull Day ones. I guess taking into effect what people have to say about the "rules" and such and the way they say it could always be useful.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Valier

Still it does give something to talk about on dull Day ones. I guess taking into effect what people have to say about the "rules" and such and the way they say it could always be useful.

I think these unknown twists are making us all jumpy– and as you say, they give us something to talk about.

We can talk about something else, of course:

Such foggy weather we're having! Oh, and how's the basket-weaving going, Valier?

[Macalaure]

Well, well... Day One... not much to say yet. At the moment, only Noggie rubs me slightly the wrong way.

Originally Posted by Nog

Those twists better help us as otherwise it looks grim indeed.

I daresay that some will and some won't. We'll just have to wait and see. There's little point in discussing them now. I know we yet don't have a lot else to talk about, but still.

Anyway, why so pessimistic so early on, Nogrod?

Originally Posted by Nog

I'd say no. That was quite the normal procedure earlier if my memory serves me right. A kind of old-school warm up. But if you have reasons to believe it to be otherwise I'm listening.

You raise my eyebrow there. I don't mean to become too formulaic in my approach to looking for wolves, but this really fits the "passively encouraging the village to discuss nonsense while appearing to be no part of that discussion"-cliché.

(edit: crossed with Rikae)

[mormegil]

I agree with what Farael said about the seer not being the cursed because it was stated that the seer, if he/she dreamt of the cursed they would appear innocent. It definately implies that the seer wouldn't be it but I wouldn't put it past the phantom to do that either. My guess is that the seer is not the cursed but either way there isn't much we can do about it.

Nogrod, I can't figure out why you brought this up though. It seems rather odd. Right now, Farael seems the most, in your face, vocal person which always makes me wonder, but to be fair it seems fairly standard for him and I do tend to be a bit suspicious of him but if I were to pick a suspect now it would be him. Granted, there are MANY we haven't heard from yet so my suspicion is weak at best, but it's helpful to get some suspicion out on the table.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I agree with what Farael said about the seer not being the cursed because it was stated that the seer, if he/she dreamt of the cursed they would appear innocent. It definately implies that the seer wouldn't be it but I wouldn't put it past the phantom to do that either. My guess is that the seer is not the cursed but either way there isn't much we can do about it.

Nogrod, I can't figure out why you brought this up though.

Actually, I brought it up– at least I think I did.

Originally Posted by mormegil

Farael seems the most, in your face, vocal person which always makes me wonder, but to be fair it seems fairly standard for him and I do tend to be a bit suspicious of him but if I were to pick a suspect now it would be him.

But why? I can't see what he's said that's suspicious.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Ah, tp and his twists. How much point is there in trying to find them out at this point in the game, though? It kind of makes you wonder.

Another thing that makes me wonder is Farael and the nonsense suspicion list that was posted at the beginning. Could it be a wolf, hiding behind a veneer of helpfulness?

Oh dear, I think I'm experiencing deja vu. With the accents. Or without, whichever catches your fancy.

Hmm, Nerwen seems to be anxious to turn the subject onto something harmless. Basket Weaving? The weather? How is this going to help us catch wolves and turn their pelts into fur coats? I've got my eye on you, Nerwen...

so said the Illusionist. I never liked him, thought he was creepy.

Nogrod's first post was, strangely, shorter than mine. What does this say about him?

-Nogrod is hiding "off the radar". He's obviously a wolf.
-Nogrod is too busy to pay much attention to this game. A perfect cover for a wolf.
-Nogrod is letting us come to our own conclusions, without exerting too much influence. Waiting for the right moment to make an opportune push... much like a wolf might do.

I think we have our answer here, don't you?

The herbs have made me loopy, the herbs have made me loopy....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by me in #30

I thought to have a specific goal in this game and that is not being the one topping the who posted tally for once - with of course wishing to stay alive until the end that is. But rest assured I will be quiet only compared to my own standards.

~*~

I'd agree with Rikae about Legate being somewhat overcautious - but then again he tends to be cautious everytime he plays. He's a valuable player for the village and I would leave him be on this Day unless something more drastic comes to the fore from his part. There's no sense in losing our best hands with Day1 lottery.

I'm not pessimistic Mac. I'm always the optimist. It just happens that this village has been set up quite unfavourably for us if we only take in the facts we know now and thence I was just thinking that the phantom's "twists" might / should go our way. But I believe we can win. Why else try?

I'd like to know what you would have said in the second post of the whole game that would have had "point in discussing" it with your standards?

Talking about easy and clicheéd wolf-tactics... I'd say Mac's post fits the description to the finest detail. I'm not going into them yet as it's late now (RL). But I'll be back.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Ah, tp and his twists. How much point is there in trying to find them out at this point in the game, though? It kind of makes you wonder.

I'd like to have seen your substantive posting in the beginning of the game.

I mean. Yes it's hard to come up with something to say this early but I'm beginning to feel some people are now riding the waves so to speak.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Not a lot to do at the moment other than to throw around baseless suspicion, though, right?

Such as EggNogrod and Magicalaure seemingly suspcious of each other so very early....

[Aganzir]

First of all, I won't be able to participate as much as I'd like today. Christmas celebration takes place mainly on Christmas Eve here, and there's a bunch of lovely relatives downstairs... And of course they need a hangwoman among them... He-he..

**

Another thing why the seer can be wrong: the twists. We don't know if there's a false seer, a mytho or something. And is the seer told if s/he dreams of a player with a twist?
I won't waste my time speculating what the twists tp spoke of might be, as it's really rather useless, but I thought this would be good for everyone to keep in mind.

As for irrelevant matters, I don't like how Legate tries to divert attention from finding the wolves in his very first post. It wouldn't be that bad, but his request not to discuss too much about the thing he mentioned makes my alarm ring. That would have made it quite easy for him to lead the discussion in the direction he wants and then back out quickly if someone starts suspecting him.

Has no one really considered the possibility that Boro was merely trying us with his vote? At least to me it seems quite possible.

At the moment I'm inclined to consider Farael, Rikae, morm, Noggie, Boro and Might innocent. Of the others I don't know, except for Legate and Shasta whom I suspect slightly.

**

I'm really sorry, I have to go now. I'll try to be online as much as I can, but it'll be me who ends up being hanged if I spend the whole evening here.

[mormegil]

Okay, I have only read through post 113 so far but I need to go to the woods to do a bit of wood cutting so I won't be back for a long while and I'm sure to miss some discussion. Will somebody please keep notes for me to catch up on?

Nogrod, I expect you to keep to you quite promise. That would cut the total post count down by half at least .

Boro's quick vote of Kath seems rather odd to me but early votes tend to anyway. He bears watching.

[Aganzir]

Something I realised while re-reading... Noggie and Mac's accusations against each other look way too convenient. Now that would be a very nice tactics for such bold players like them- suspect the fellow wolf quite vocally and even vote him on Day 1, then maybe drop the suspicions later...

Originally Posted by Noggie

If Mac starts posting his normally helpful stuff I'd be happy not to vote for him and rather vote for someone who doesn't contribute.

They both just took up suspecting each other so easily, as if it had been decided beforehand.

Shasta then. Suspecting Noggie, with quite forced-looking reasons. Noggie suspecting Shasta. It'd sound unlikely that three of the four wolves were accusing one another, but not impossible I think. Something worth trying if the wolves want to be sporty? Something worth trying just because people probably don't believe they would do it?

[Kath]

Let me explain, no that will take too long, so let me sum up...You accuse Nerwen, then defend it as being "confused." That's what I find supsicious, and no I tend not to second guess myself. Maybe you think that is wrong and I should go about it differently, but when I think too much it leads my mind in complete disarray and I start thinking of double-bluffs, triple-bluffs whatever...I've never been in a village with Nerwen before, but I don't find what caused the big deal.

Alrighty Boro, it looks like our problem is a difference in playing styles. I don't think yours is wrong at all, but mine is born from years of writing essays and I find it hard to reach a conclusion without arguing both sides of the argument! As to the 'big deal' with Nerwen, it is simply that her reaction to what Nogrod said seemed over the top and, to me, she explained it very oddly. I didn't defend it as being confused either, I suggested it was due to her relative newbieness which, due to her adeptness at this game, is sometimes forgotten.

Now that's gonna be it from me til the morning I think unless I come post after midnight mass. Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night.

[Rikae]

I don't know what to make of the whole Macalaure/Nogrod conflict. To me, neither of them seems particularly suspicious: Nogrod, though I disagree with him, seems to be a quieter version of his normal self, and Macalaure doesn't ring any alarms for me, because although his points against Nogrod aren't particularly strong, they have that half-intuitive quality his suspicions generally have. I trust an aggressive Mac more than a passive one.
Mormegil's reaction to Nerwen is odd, indeed: first he defends himself for throwing weak suspicions around, than attacks me for doing the same. It seems to me like a desperate move, although, on the other hand, I seem to recall Morm having a generally touchy sort of style. I'm interested in hearing the opinions of those who have played with him more often.
Shasta seems to have confused me with Nerwen, and to generally have a hurried and careless quality about him. Is this the franticness of a wolf who feels himself cornered, though, or the carelessness of an ordo with nothing to lose? Although it seems more like the former to me, I can't say I'm completely comfortable with lynching Shasta, as he seems to be presenting the usual profile of the misguided day-one lynch - too obvious. I've seen such bandwagons go awry too many times not to question the situation that seems to be arising around Shasta.
Boro, yes, I'm familiar with Nogrod's usual line of reasoning - however, in his reply to me he seemed to be expressing not so much a "spare the vocal for now" attitude as a "spare the elite/the good players" one, and in the process, suggesting we shouldn't even make note of any suspicious activities on their part at the time being. I certainly wasn't advocating lynching Legate at that point, as I would think Nogrod would have recognized, so his reply to me seemed unreasonable.
Now, Boro' s reasoning against Kath I simply do not understand. I'll admit, I'm not that familiar with Kath's style, but to me what she said seems perfectly reasonable. Mentioning all possibilities, especially at this early point in the game, is not "flip-flopping", it's a responsible way to post when one is uncertain.
Well, then - I can't really say for whom I'm likely to vote at this point. I would really like to see more from everyone, especially TM and Izzy. Now I'm off to make dinner and decorate the tree, so: Merry Christmas to you all!

EDIT: X'd with Kath

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Something I realised while re-reading... Noggie and Mac's accusations against each other look way too convenient. Now that would be a very nice tactics for such bold players like them- suspect the fellow wolf quite vocally and even vote him on Day 1, then maybe drop the suspicions later...

They both just took up suspecting each other so easily, as if it had been decided beforehand.

Shasta then. Suspecting Noggie, with quite forced-looking reasons. Noggie suspecting Shasta. It'd sound unlikely that three of the four wolves were accusing one another, but not impossible I think. Something worth trying if the wolves want to be sporty? Something worth trying just because people probably don't believe they would do it?

Aganzir, I've already said that my suspicions on EggNogrod at the beginning were meant to be taken in jest.

As to how vocal I'm being, some of you said I should be more active... but now that I am being more active, what I'm seeing is "Hey, Shasta's being unusually active. How suspicious!" I just can't win.

Also, don't worry, those of you who haven't had me make you a suitably-Christmas name yet, I'm working on it. ^_^

Edit: X'ed with Aganzir.

[mormegil]

Here is my analysis of Eomer. It might be a bit rushed as I'm on limited time and he has a fair amount of posts but we shall see.

Post 112 is an in character post not much content overall.

Post 115 he brings up some moderate suspicion of Nerwen.

Post 134 gives some advice that regarding plots some wolves use against quiet victims and get the bandwagon rolling. He doesn't think it wise to 'stick to your guns' this early.

Post 180 states he is not happy about Nogrod getting lynched and thinks it should be Nerwen and votes Nerwen.

Post 215 he explains his vote from the day before. It seems like a fairly reasonable explanation but I could see it as a fairly prepared from the night before explanation. He tries to convince us that his vote makes him look more innocent and I can see it both ways.

Post 217 He points out some things Shasta said in regards to Nogrod intimating that the wolves killed him because they thought him to be the seer. Not a lot to make of this as knowing Nogrod was a wolf makes it easy to pick out seer hints from the day before and assume that is why he was killed. Nothing too bad here.

Post 218 Comes out and states what he intimated in the previous post and believes that, if it wasn't for seer hints, he can't figure out why they killed him.

Post 236 Here are some interesting quotes. Look back on this post, he is either brilliant at spotting wolves or is one himself because the only three he really suspects are three known wolves. My guess is that the remaining wolves saw that only they were suspected and seer or not they should be done with him at that point and went after him at night but he was not the seer but rather an intelligent, if cursed, villager and became one of them.

Macalaure: The Nogrod thing bothers me, and if Mac is innocent I along with many others will feel embarrassed at suspecting the man who did more than anything to bring the foul wolf down; but... he's creepy, that jailer.

Nerwen: Still unsure. SPM made good point about wolf-Nerwen probably keeping Shasta alive. She seems a bit wrong to me, but I'm leaning towards thinking she's innocent.

Rikae: Exactly like Mac -- seems creepy to me. Not sure why but I never trust her.

Post 256 not a lot in there really. Plus I"m getting shorter on time

Post 264 votes Nerwen again, who was a wolf.

Post 293 is rather interesting in light of my new theory and it fits with Eomer's typical playing style. He is the one that points out we may have a new wolf on our hands and seems to piece the Valier thing together. A fairly clever thing to do for an innocent or a wolf but very bold if you were the cursed turned the night before because who would suspect that person of bringing it up? He says something about a little bird giving him an idea???

Post 314 states he doesn't understand what Boro means when he suddenly switched on considering me innocent because Valier was the hunter and he could talk to her and the hunter only would kill a wolf. Now this post is fine because Boro hadn't explained himself and I was confused too.

Post 321 Now Farael is on his list as well as the Might. Mac has dropped off but Rikae stayed. You obviously don't want to drop your suspicion all together of your fellow wolves but he is adding others and dropped one of the two wolves.

Post 347 he somewhat defends Mac by stating he doesn't understand why all this uncertainty revolves around him.

I really am out of time now but I remember it was around this day that Eomer began sticking out to me and I noticed some things that seem odd to me. Of course, my theory is that he was turned on the second night and we know that he wasn't protected. It seems to fit that the wolves, obviously, are after the seer first and foremost and with labelling the 3 remaining wolves as suspicious it would have screamed SEER to them. It is probable that they attacked him based upon that.

I'm fairly confident that either The Might or Eomer is the remaining wolf

[mormegil]

Here is the best effort I can give on Aganzir

Post 120 is her first post and talks about the seer and other possible roles that would be twisted. She begins to suspect Legate.

Post 126 it's interesting here because she points out the Nogrod/Mac thing and says that two bold wolves could pull this off and that they are possibly this bold. I'm not sure how this makes her look. If I assume that the cursed has been killed then this is very questionable if I assume, as I am assuming, that the cursed is the remaining wolf then this means nothing other than she spotted this wolf on wolf attack early on.

Post 131 she talks about a couple of trivial such as Zali and first day behavior but brings up Kath and oints out something about Kath saying 'She's not defending Mac' which stuck out to her and found it odd.

Post 159 has a post count and says of the remaining two she prefers Nogrod or Shasta

Post 162 she votes Nogrod and doesn't understand why people are suspicous of Nerwen. Notably she states that she is willing and ready to switch her vote to Shatsa.

Post 173 states who hasn't voted yet. Threatens Shasta to vote for him if he doesn't change his vote to Nogrod.

Post 216 She starts off by rejoicings that she has her first ever vote (odd) then she explains her vote and suggests that the wolves thought that Shasta was the seer and gave some explanation as to why this is the case.

Post 229 she talks a lot about the Mac/Nogrod thing again. If she is a wolf from the start then I see this as somebody who is trying to ride that wave to prove her innocence.

Post 248 states that she thinks Mac and Legate are guilty. Goes on to almost gloat over her the fact that she won't be lynched but Mac might be.

Post 253 she questions Isabell on her suspicions because Agan was on Isabell's suspect list.

Post 260 tells Isabell that she should look back to ost 216 to see her explanation for her reason for voting Nogrod.

Post 306 she is rather defensive and seems to get aggresive anytime somebody suspects her. She is also aggressive against Mac.

Up to this point she seems very aggressive and one tracked but innocent enough to me. I can see why she was gathering some suspicion at this point though. Being that Mac is guilty, yet it was unknown at this time her aggresiveness could be seen as rather odd but with the hindsight she looks quite good.

Post 310 she responds to Nerwen who is questioning her suspicions of Mac because he voted Nogrod. Realizes that she is on one track and that this is not a good thing.

Post 327 she gives her suspicions and thoughts of who is innocent. Most relevant are that she thinks Mac and Legate guilty, Nerwen and Rikae innocent

Post 329 goes after Mac again and votes for him.

Post 339 responds to Mac again. She seems avid to answer anything Mac says. She really is a laser beam on Mac.

Post 349 begs for somebody to switch their votes so she is saved and if she dies to please look at Legate and Mac closely.

Post 352 she retracts her vote and revotes for Mac. Proclaims her innocence.

This marks the end of day 3 and she is looking fairly innocent at this point and is going after Mac rather avidly, and that to me seems like somebody the wolves would think the seer. That fact alone makes me suspect her at this point. She never, in my opinion, made a great arguement about Mac but continued her single-minded pursuit of him. My guess is that the remaining wolves, Rikae and Mac thought her to be the seer and decided to kill her. Obviously she wasn't the seer which lends creedence to my theory. I hope to have time to review the remaining days but it is getting late. I will begin to get through what I can.

Post 411 she is the one that brings up the cursed being wolverised which could be perceived as either way of being a turned wolf making sure to point it out so as to help 'prove' her innocent or as a helpful innocent.

Post 413 tries to make an arguement that Rikae or Nerwen was likely the cursed turned wolf it seems to me to scream "it's not me!'

Post 421 is a post I don't fully understand as it is a bit of contextual post and I don't have the time to go back and review the whole posts she is talking about despite her quoting it.

Post 427 she decides that Rikae is a wolf. I think that a wolf Agan would be willing to go after her fellows but doesn't really go after either with the same gusto that she did the day before.

Post 429 votes Mac but again never established a viable arguement. Seems to have backed down on her attack of Mac. Agan seems to be the type that would have gloated over being shown that Mac was a wolf, yet she didn't do anything like that. She really did calm down her suspicion of Mac.

Post 457 she begins her suspicion of Isabell and renews her Legate suspicion.

Post 462 and 463 she brings up her attack on Legate. I only skimmed this due to time.

Post 480 she responds to my question about why she posted her suspicions of Legate so quickly. Stated that she had to do so quickly because she may not be back later, which I understand (this is 5 hours from the last post). It should be mentioned though I'm not sure it will help us but Rikae did vote for her on this day.

Post 509 states that she still thinks we should suspect and lynch Legate as he could be an evil twist. It's so obviously guilty looking that it makes one look innocent, yet she votes for Isabell. Agan is experienced enough to know that this overtly guilty looking behavior can work to help show you innocent because the though would be that no wolf would be so overt.

Post 517 switches her vote from Isabell to The Might. States that she is a stubborn innocent. She is still insistent upon Legate being a cobbler. I can understand this honestly as I think he could have been one too but I don't understand why she was so adamant about bringing him up continually.

Post 537 she says she's not surprised that Legate wasn't killed because a wolf would want to keep a possible cobbler. States she is still suspicious of Isabell.

Post 539 she has a long post, which I only skimmed, about her suspicions of Isabell. Thinks her mainly sensible but vascilates that she is a wolf and could be either and original or convert.

Post 544 states that she is likely going to vote for Isabell today.

Post 548 she goes over a little bit more about Isabell and votes for her.

Phew...I'm certain that I won't have time to get through Saucies posts...this took way too long. Around 2 hours. Anyway it seems that she does change her tone a bit on day 4. The fact that the wolves would have wanted to kill her on night 3 makes sense because she was so adamant about Mac. Her behavior did change and of the three she seems most suspcious. She was fortunate because she was moderately suspected before she was wolverised but the Mac and Rikae revelation from Farael she was able to slip under the radar and has been successful in hanging out on the fringes. Being helpful enough but not overly suspicious. I feel she is the final wolf. I will wait and see if I can look at Kath more closely but for now I need some sleep...5:30AM comes early.

[Aganzir]

Kath: unknown but innocent-looking.
morm: probably innocent at least until Day 2, after that the cursed was turned, innocent-looking anyway.
Saucie: innocent at least at the beginning, after that the cursed was turned, innocent-looking anyway.

I'm beginning to wonder if there are any wolves left. I know I am not a wolf and all of you just feel so darn innocent.

There's something from yesterday I want to answer despite the fact that the person who stated it is dead.

Originally Posted by Isabell

Quite interesting that yesterDay you were pretty trigger happy to see me lynched, yet today you actually deemed it it neccesary to 'analyze' my posts before you made your vote.

The Day before yesterDay I was abroad, sitting in a net cafe with just enough time to skim the thread and post.
I don't do an analysis as a reason for a vote I have already decided to cast- I want to know if I think someone is guilty even after I've concentrated on them properly.

Mormie's project then... Let's see if I can shed some light on it.

Post 216 She starts off by rejoicings that she has her first ever vote (odd)

I was not rejoicing I got my first vote, I was rather gloating over not being voted ever earlier (despite being a wolf twice, as Mac kindy pointed out). So not odd but conceited.

Post 306 she is rather defensive and seems to get aggresive anytime somebody suspects her.

As far as I recall I have always been aggressive when suspected, whether I'm a wolf or not.

Post 427 she decides that Rikae is a wolf. I think that a wolf Agan would be willing to go after her fellows but doesn't really go after either with the same gusto that she did the day before.

Post 429 votes Mac but again never established a viable arguement. Seems to have backed down on her attack of Mac. Agan seems to be the type that would have gloated over being shown that Mac was a wolf, yet she didn't do anything like that. She really did calm down her suspicion of Mac.

Tell me why you think it would have been necessary to keep coming up with points against someone the seer has already revealed a wolf.

Stated that she had to do so quickly because she may not be back later, which I understand (this is 5 hours from the last post).

12 am- I posted and went to sleep. 5 am- I woke up early enough to post again before leaving.

**

I hate to say this now because it will surely look like some kind of a revenge, but I started thinking about it already during last Night. Could it be possible that morm was the cursed? Boro's change on opinion on Day 3 was quite strange and the wolves noticed it (as can be seen of Nerwen's reaction). Morm had been quite after Nerwen anyway so it wouldn't have been that surprising if the wolves had decided to kill him.

Ok, time to go. I'll be back in some hours.

[mormegil]

Post 104 she talks about some of the first day main suspects, namely Farael, Shasta, Rikae, Nogrod and Nerwen. Seems that she feels Nerwen is the most suspicous of the group.

Post 121 she speaks to Boro about the way she analyzes things. She comments to Nogrod that there are some, like Valier, who are more hunch players than anything.

Post 127 She responds again to Boro who had responded to her. She simply explains that they have a difference of opinion and playing style and gives the root of hers.

Post 138 comes back quickly to vote. She votes Nerwen because she seemed jumpy, which is something I noticed and pointed out so obviously agree with. Day 1 Kath seems fairly innocent.

Post 222 she responds to Nerwen of her use of the word 'scream' and feels that Nerwen was screaming against whatever was said. I remember this and agreed with Nerwen's reaction as screaming as it seemed such to me too.

Post 239 gives her run down of how she feels about the village and notably finds Nerwen and Rikae in the top 4 suspects and that on Mac she 'just doesn't know' what to think or feel about him.

Post 292 states she should be back before the deadline but votes for Nerwen in case she cant' be back in time.

Post 338 decides to leave her vote for Nerwen. States:

I know that I will be preoccupied with Nerwen this entire game and here's a chance to know for sure. I hate that that's my strongest reason for leaving my vote as it is, but it's a strong one to me. I dislike getting bogged down on one person.

This marks the end of day three and I felt and still feel that Kath seems innocent to me. I can see that the wolves may have thought that with her suspicion of Nerwen they could view an innocent Kath as the seer especially the way she stated the above quote but I doubt it honestly.

Post 420 talks about the Farael revelation and wants to trust him because he has shown two wolves but also mentions how it could be a wolfish plot as he hasn't revelaed the ranger. I remember commenting on this too that Farael could have been either a wolf or cobbler type role hoping to lure the ranger and seer out.

Post 423 corrects her invalid assumption of how the ranger's death might effect the seer.

Post 442 votes Mac as this makes the most sense to her as either way we won't be losing a gifted.

I need to leave for 20 to 30 minutes, (I'm at work and need to do a few things and run elsewhere) I'll finish my post then on Kath (hopefully)

[Aganzir]

Ok, this hasn't much to do with the subject, but I found it funny. Could it be another reason why the wolves decided to kill Shasta?

Originally Posted by Shasta's first post

Hmm, Nerwen seems to be anxious to turn the subject onto something harmless. Basket Weaving? The weather? How is this going to help us catch wolves and turn their pelts into fur coats? I've got my eye on you, Nerwen...

**

Rikae, Day 2:

Originally Posted by Rikae

However, (although I hate to say it) Macalaure's post indeed looks sinister to me. I don't see how his arguments against Aganzir for turning so suddenly and viciously against Nogrod don't apply to Mac himself just as well, for although he opposed Nogrod from the beginning, he had little to back it up at first - it came out of the blue in what was quite possibly a preplanned way. Furthermore, his final "PS" sends chills up my spine. There is the same taunting, gloating quality there I saw Macwolf demonstrate in the last game.

Originally Posted by Rikae

At this point, my vote is likely to go to Macalaure, whose suspicions toward Aganzir simply have too little to back them up (why Aganzir? He seems to be just trying to convince us it's possible for her to be a wolf, without telling us why it's likely), or to Valier ...

Rikae, Day 3:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm glad Mac clarified his suspicions of Aganzir. It actually does put my mind at ease, to some degree, about him, although I'm not quite convinced of Aganzir's guilt, either. One thing that does worry me about Aganzir is the whole "he's accusing me so I won't accuse him" thing. It sort of came out of nowhere, seemingly. I think it might be useful to test Mac's "hunch“ on Aganzir – he was, after all, right on Nogrod, and he actually is a highly skilled wolf-hunter. If he's mislead us, we have time to deal with him later.

Based on this quick change, I guess it's safe to say that if either Rikae or Nerwen was the cursed, it was Rikae. On Day 2 she had been suspecting Macalaure to the extent of almost voting him, on Day 3 she was completely on his side. This indicates that she's either the cursed or that she's the seer who dreamt of innocent Mac. It's not hard to decide which one sounds more probable.

I must run now. Back later.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Farael

SPM you talked yourself into a knot there...

Well, I thought myself into a knot there. I was concerned that my earlier suspicion of Mac might be biasing me against him and in favour of you, and so started thinking about the plausibility of you and Boro being Wolves or Wolf and Cobbler. Problem is, I found it quite plausible. Or, should I say, plausible as the Wolves killing one of their number not once but twice.

Originally Posted by Farael

Of course, since there's reason to believe the cursed was turned, you may very well be a wolf now (which would explain your confusing logic) but then, since I know I am the Seer, anyone suspecting me sounds kinda dubious.

Now this I don't like. I come up with a Wolfael theory, and you immediately respond with a post designed to 'get me on side', as it were, while also attempting to tarnish me with possible Cursedness. It doesn't make you look any better in my eyes.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Especially as Rikae had said she'd switch to Nerwen in order to save Mac. Surely Nerwen hadn't missed that; she had to know she was going to die if she voted him. But if both Mac and Rikae are wolves, what a nice little plan it would have been to clear them both.

But surely, if they are both Wolves, it would have made more sense for Rikae to leave her vote where it was (particularly as her last minute switch would draw attention to her) and for Nerwen to switch to you. It might have meant Nerwen being lynched toDay, but it wouldn't have made Rikae and Mac look particularly bad, and would have got rid of an innocent rather than a Wolf yesterDay (assuming that you are innocent).

Arrgh! I am still torn. I need to hear more from Rikae and Mac before making up my mind.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Boro

I was fully expecting to be dead, but I think Farael's sudden aggressive attack against Mac yesterday tipped the wolves off so I protected Farael.

But surely, if you are the Ranger and the Wolves had picked up on your hints (which I am sure they would have done), their best move would have been to attack you, given that the Ranger cannot protect himself. Even if they had spotted a Seerish Farael, they could not have known whether he would be protected or not.

If Mac and Rikae are Wolves, I think that you would have been their likeliest target last Night.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

There's nothing in the rules about the Ranger and the Hunter being able to communicate in private. Are you, Boromir, perhaps trying to sway Mormegil to your side by buddying up to his innocence? Possibly the only reason you know he is innocent is because he is not a wolf like you.

Just a thought.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

There's nothing in the rules about the Ranger and the Hunter being able to communicate in private. Are you, Boromir, perhaps trying to sway Mormegil to your side by buddying up to his innocence? Possibly the only reason you know he is innocent is because he is not a wolf like you.

Just a thought.

To be honest, I'm kind of a sucker for such tactics. I tend to suspect those that suspect me and vice versa it's fairly pathetic really

I'm glad to see both SpM and Eomer not trusting either party as I think it's 99% certain that you are not both wolves...at least one is innocent and it's good to get your perspective on things.

[Rikae]

Well, well. I must say, it's difficult not to suspect Nogrod for not only failing to advocate lynching the quiet ones, but actually being rather quiet himself. I take it this is the new style?
I suppose somebody should provide the usual quiet/loud discussion, then. I suggest that we get rid of anyone who isn't pulling his or her weight in this villiage early on, rather than leave them to the last as unknown quantities when we can't afford to lose them.
No, Rikae, actually, it's better to keep them around, because it's better to have even a few short posts to go on than none at all.
Yes, but you don't understand. We can force them out of the shadows by threatening them with lynching!
Well, not so much now, can we, Rikae?

Yes, I know the above is pointless, but no more so than attempts to figure out TP's twists. Honestly, it could be anything at all, and throwing random ideas out isn't going to accomplish anything.

Instead, I suggest tossing around some accusations. For instance: I dislike the way Legate brings up the topic of the pre-game discussions while telling others - twice - not to discuss it. It shows a certain overcautiousness, if you know what I mean.

[Nerwen]

Calm down. What are you so jumpy about? I'm not accusing you. I'm just asking people to consider how incredibly easy the set-up makes it for the wolves to orchestrate a lynch. It's really worrying me.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Yes, I know the above is pointless, but no more so than attempts to figure out TP's twists. Honestly, it could be anything at all, and throwing random ideas out isn't going to accomplish anything.

I don't know about that– I think it might be worth discussing possibilities.

[Nerwen]

Calm down. What are you so jumpy about? I'm not accusing you. I'm just asking people to consider how incredibly easy the set-up makes it for the wolves to orchestrate a lynch. It's really worrying me.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Yes, I know the above is pointless, but no more so than attempts to figure out TP's twists. Honestly, it could be anything at all, and throwing random ideas out isn't going to accomplish anything.

I don't know about that– I think it might be worth discussing possibilities.

EDIT: X'd with Isbellkya. (The "you" I'm adressing is Mormegil.)
EDIT #2: And somehow I just double posted. Sorry.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

I agree Nerwen; with the wolves being able to communicate at all times; it shall be easier for them to form a bandwagon/lynching party.

Well, hey, just the numbers will do that. We had four wolves last game and they led the village around by its collective nose. (Uh... so to speak...) The fact they they can communicate during the Day makes it twice as bad.

Of course they might also decide they can afford to start accusing each other, even this early in the game.

Either way, we need to be on the lookout for accusations without substance.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, hey, just the numbers will do that. We had four wolves last game and they led the village around by its collective nose. (Uh... so to speak...) The fact they they can communicate during the Day makes it twice as bad.

Of course they might also decide they can afford to start accusing each other, even this early in the game.

Either way, we need to be on the lookout for accusations without substance.

The wolves being able to discuss isn't necessarily bad for us. I've seen it before where they discuss strategy mid-day and you see one change rapidly thus exposing themselves. So I would watch for that behavior too.

[The Saucepan Man]

Apologies for not being more vocal but I am unfortunately experiencing internet connection problems. Currently, my only way of accessing the net is via my BlackBerry, which is very cumbersome and not at all conducive to playing WW.

It should sort itself out, but I don,t know how long it will take. Possibly, I may not be able to do anything more toDay other than vote.

I have only really been able to skim read the conversation this far, but here are my current suspicions, for what they are worth.

I tend to find those who come across as cautious on Day 1 as suspicious, as I always think that is the best approach for a Wolf at the outset. The two who have come across as most cautious thus far are Nerwen and Legate. As I think Noggie mentioned, caution is Legate's normal modis operandi. Not sure about Nerwen, but I am uneasy about the way that she seems to be portraying herself as so helpful.

On the other hand, while he is coming across as anything but cautious, I tend to agree with what others have said about Shasta being unusually vocal and somewhat jumpy.

As I said, I doubt that I shall be able to do any more toDay than vote (my thumbs are aching already) and, unless there are any radical developments, I shall probably vote for either Nerwen or Shasta.

Toodlepip.

[Kath]

Okaay. Boro, I don't entirely know where you got that suspicion from. When trying to argue out a point you generally give both sides and come to a conclusion, which is what I did. Are you actually suspicious of me or did you just need to vote early?

Back on Nerwen, you say your suggestion of a cursed Seer wasn't serious, but it certainly felt it. People were throwing out ideas and though they were unlikely scenarios (such as tp telling certain people to post certain things in the pre-game discussion) they were meant seriously, so I don't see that you can put your own unlikely theory in the same category if you meant it in a facetious way.

Finally I want to pull up something Noggie said too:

Because everyone has hunches and feelings but a villager seldomly tries to build up general distrust just based on a hunch with nothing to support it.

Seldom but sometimes. Valier is a prime example of that, and there are times when there simply isn't the evidence to support such an assertion, which is often that case on Day 1. I'm not defending Mac (who was the subject of this discussion) but I do want to point out that it does happen.

[Macalaure]

When I made my last post I gave some points against Nogrod because they were all that I could come up with so early on. Now I will focus on him because he's clearly up to no good.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

He's (Legate) a valuable player for the village and I would leave him be on this Day unless something more drastic comes to the fore from his part. There's no sense in losing our best hands with Day1 lottery.

I'm not pessimistic Mac. I'm always the optimist.

You'd be the first optimist to call Day 1 a lottery. While I don't share the suspicions of Legate, I find it somewhat strange that you discourage considering him too strongly this early on. On this day, we all will probably have to vote because of weak reasons in the end, simply due to the nature of Day 1, but if the strongest of those weak reasons point towards a 'stronger' player, I'm all for lynching that one.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'd like to know what you would have said in the second post of the whole game that would have had "point in discussing" it with your standards?

You could have said something instead of letting others do so and remain in the background of that particular obviously nonsensical matter - like Legate did.


And then he blows up very feeble points to a long ramble to make them look like something, dropping names like "bogus post", "smelling a rat", etc. Note also how he mixes what I said with Shasta's strange/joking arguments to make them look bad by association.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

When a player says that someone "rubs them the wrong way" or that s/he "doesn't sit right" with her/him - or that they "raise the eyebrow" - but will not bring forwards anything more solid I'm smelling a rat. Why? Because everyone has hunches and feelings but a villager seldomly tries to build up general distrust just based on a hunch with nothing to support it. An innocent villager normally stands up for her/his case when s/he has something. With the wolves it's different as they have no actual case or any real suspicion as they are trying to get an innocent to the gallows.
....
Generally it makes me wonder why such a bright player like Mac had nothing to say at that point of the game but to bring forwards all this "out of thin air nothing" about my posts. I mean yes I might be mistaken as when some people just jump on you with this kind of nonsense you tend to feel they are wolves trying to get you. But at this point it's my best explanation to Mac's behaviour.

The way I see it, then his only argument is, that I used "rub the wrong way" and "raise an eyebrow. The rest is general ramble that you could accuse anyone with at this early stage. I don't see why an innocent should bother to do such a thing.

Note also the way he shortened my post in his quote to make it look less like a careful early day one comment and more like a baseless accusation with no points! (check 82 and 113, please)

The whole thing looks very, very contrived and written with evil intent.


I only took a short look at anybody else, I admit. I'm short on time today. On this short look I didn't see anything obviously wolvish. I will have to vote soon. Nogrod is probably going to get my vote for reasons stated above and before.