WW XXXIX - Do Werebalrogs have wings?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So if you Balrogs won't co-operate with lining yourselves against the wall to be executed would you then please open your mouths?

And surely everyone else is encouraged to open their mouths as well...

Which reminds me, unfortunately, the first Day is going to be a little bit tight for me, because it may happen that I am not going to be around here at the deadline so I'd be bound to vote somewhat early (wasn't it also Tuesday the first day in Gil's game?). And that would be in the morning, which is about 10 hours from now, so, not much fun. So, this is one more reason for everyone to talk, so that I may choose my vote based on some real evidence and not just randomly.

[Mithalwen]

However, it should be borne in mind that many peole are reluctant to vote for someone wh hasn't said much, "who hasn't been around to defend themselves" etc...and the wolves.... (given that it is unlikely but not impossible that all wolves are first time players) will be aware of that. Obviously deliberate non participation is a dangerous strategy but this is a small group to face 3 werebeasts and a cobbler even with a ranger about.

The innocents can't afford to be too noble .... no one can be discounted, not the quiet, not the noisy, and certainly not the pseudo helpful not the flyers-under- the radar....

but if noone else is around I shall go to my rest...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mith

but if noone else is around I shall go to my rest...

Well I'm around but there seems to be quite a little to pay heed to. I'll try anyhow. Just a moment.

[Nogrod]

As this seems to be quite sticky let's throw some balls around for catching... We should not play this game the way we have done this far but in a way actually trying to do something.

What has happened then so far?

Nogrod: Joking first post, tries to assert himself as the MC around here, at least in-characterwise. Very fishy indeed. And calls for the wet-haired one to explain her/his status? Now he must be up to something evil. I'd have all my red-alerts on at the moment. On second post he seemingly plays friendly with both Mith and Legate. That friendliness can be seen in his last post as well. And to top it all he seems to play with the possible innocense / guiltiness of himself in his second post - or the general fact of trusting / asking someone's word.

Mith: Starting with trying to make a jokingly warm relationship with Nogrod and indicating she might make the (safe!) vote for either Kath or Gil from tradition. That's as bad as saying one will vote by flipping a coin. No tracks left behind that is. Genuine wolf-tactics (Balrog-tactics): appeasing vocal players and backing up one's own vote forthcoming... On second post pure joking and passing the real discussion further. On third some general sense coupled with saying this and that cancelling each statement out = saying nothing. Looking helpful and villager-friendly while backing up her steps to come. Just what a balrog-Mith would do.

Legate: He calls people to speak but gives pretty little himself. Oh, how careful he is! Just look at them two posts! A joke, a storyline joke, making a comment on the undesirableness of non-posters, saying he won't be able to take part later in the Day, calling for people to talk so that he might make an educated deduction on what has been discussed. That is so carefully played... A balrog would mind his words that carefully.

The Might: Now what is this? What's the point of saying:

No point on blaming each other folks, as we know nothing for now. For all we know, it could be anyone of us. But the question remains...who is it?

? And not saying anything else but that!
So looking very agreeable indeed - and stating nonconsequential trivialities? Wouldn't a balrog like to stage that kind of image of himself? Helpful-sounding & -feeling but noncommitant. Like from a werewolf-handbook!

Okay. I'm probably pretty wrong with a few around here and you may guess I'm not the most serious with these at this stage. But the point is, let's start making some advances towards creating real discussion. And with probabilities I might be right with one of the people posted this far...

And as I have said and acted so many times before: I'm more than happy to vote any non-posters out on the first Day if there are no good reasons to claim that a loudmouth actually is suspicious enough.

That sure is just my point of view.

But please do start talking fellows.

[Brinniel]

Well, I'm here, though I'm afraid I don't have too much to say. With fifteen of us, I was hoping it would be a bit noisier by now. I suppose we'll just have to wait around and see who shows up.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

The innocents can't afford to be too noble .... no one can be discounted, not the quiet, not the noisy, and certainly not the pseudo helpful not the flyers-under- the radar....

I agree. These werebalrogs could be hiding anywhere among us. Everyone must be watched closely, even the most innocent seeming or these newbies among us...

EDIT: X-ed with Nogrod

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Well, I'm here, though I'm afraid I don't have too much to say. With fifteen of us, I was hoping it would be a bit noisier by now. I suppose we'll just have to wait around and see who shows up.

Isn't this just the problem? If everyone just pops in and says "oh, there's so little to say, let's wait if someone comes along", aren't we just postponing the actual start of the arguments - to back our own tails? If everyone acted like this we would be only blind-guessing at things. So people need to take risks, to commit themselves for the game to exist. Otherwise we could just run a lottery for votes and stop this posting altogether. But where's the fun then?

Like those people sitting alone in their car in the morning traffic-jam and swearing why all those other cars have to be there while they are part of the problem themselves...

[Lhunardawen]

Okay, three werebalrogs, one cobbler, and a couple of lovers hidden somewhere. And then the standard three gifteds - and I hope there aren't any lovers there. But in any case, we innocent miners do stand a fighting chance.

I don't think we should give much heed to these lovers, at least not yet while the threat of the balrogs is still more immediate, but I'm quite sure they'll be male and female. And they would be carefully tiptoeing around each other in our presence lest they lose control and start displaying public displays of affection. Of course, now that I've mentioned that, they might instead openly and passionately disagree with each other. Bah, love. It's a nuisance.

Ehem. Where was I. Balrogs. There's no use throwing non-random suspicions if a lot still have not spoken up, so I will wait. I have some mining work to do that will take at least ten hours straight, anyway.

[The Might]

What's the point of me saying that?
Well, I could just as well start thinking if Lhunardawen really means it when she says "we innocent miners" implying she's a good person or if she only wants to mislead us, or if it's reverse-reverse-reverse-psychology.
I personally wouldn't be so hasty so as to start such accusations, since really to little has been said.

See, now you could think I'm afraid you think I'm a bad guy and try to explain my last post hoping to make the night or maybe I'm simply telling my opinion.
Who knows? That's the point.

Unfortunately I must go off to bed now and I'm back tomorrow only an hour before the deadline, so I'm not sure if I'll manage to post anything but the vote before the night starts.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Isn't this just the problem? If everyone just pops in and says "oh, there's so little to say, let's wait if someone comes along", aren't we just postponing the actual start of the arguments - to back our own tails? If everyone acted like this we would be only blind-guessing at things. So people need to take risks, to commit themselves for the game to exist. Otherwise we could just run a lottery for votes and stop this posting altogether. But where's the fun then?

Yes, but if I don't have much to say, then what am I supposed to say? I'd much rather drop in and make a few short serious comments than waste my time bantering.

I don't like to form my opinions on someone based on joking and bantering. It's really hard to know what to expect from it. And when several people do it, it's easy for a wolf (or balrog) to hide within that group. Often, I've found first Day mistakes are made from misinterpreted bantering and joking.

At least I've said something. I could've just not posted at all and waited for more people to come along and provide more substance (and I wouldn't be surprised if there are players doing that at this very moment).

EDIT: X-ed with Rikae and Might

[The Might]

I must say, I agree with Brinniel on this one.
I'll take a look tomorrow and see if any posts have been made that might help make my decision.

Though I must say, Rikae has a very...special way of starting the game.

[Rikae]

Well, I have a feeling of déjà vu all over again! Something about this situation looks so familiar... I think I had a dream like this once, except that it involved Dr. Evil holding basketball games in a German university.
I can't say I agree with The Might. "No use blaming each other", eh? What do you suggest instead - blaming ourselves? That would look extremely cobblerish.
Then again, Nogrod seems to be doing just that. He has always been a sober and realistic werewolfer, not prone to wild conspiracy theories or in-character nonsense. What's good enough for Nogrod is good enough for me.
Therefore, I wholeheartedly suggest that we lynch Rikae. She has played ten games over the past year and has never been lynched - I say it's her turn. Besides, she is evil: she smashed my finger in a car door once. Oh, that's anachronistic - make it a van. She also is acting erratic and bizarre, which is clearly a sign of Balroggery.
Or, if you prefer, we could lynch 'the quiet ones':
Gil-Galad, Kath, Lhunardawen, Macalaure, Naria, Nerwen, satansaloser2005, Shastanis Althreduin and Volo. What the heck, we could throw in The Might, Rikae and Brinniel as well. Then again, that could be counter-productive.

Enough silliness. As the weaver, I am certain that Rikae is a balrog, and Mithalwen and Lhuna are her companions in crime.

++Rikae

EDIT - X'd with Lhuna

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Which reminds me, unfortunately, the first Day is going to be a little bit tight for me, because it may happen that I am not going to be around here at the deadline so I'd be bound to vote somewhat early (wasn't it also Tuesday the first day in Gil's game?). And that would be in the morning, which is about 10 hours from now, so, not much fun. So, this is one more reason for everyone to talk, so that I may choose my vote based on some real evidence and not just randomly.

Yup, it was. Like in the preveous game, I'll be able to play only near the end of the Day. Timewise the game is uncomfortable for me... I might get to a computer during the Day for a short time.

Anyway, no unthought accusations from me, yet.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right, seems at least something is starting to happen. The main crisis is behind us.

Nogrod, as always, had a very nice "kick in". Now, of course, the problem is that with him, you never know whether he seems joking, helpful, or whatever he just seems, because he is joking, helpful or whatever; or because he is hiding behind this mask. But personally, he gives out "normal" vibes to me, at least nothing too suspicious.

Brinniel seems quite all right to me, with her reaction to Nogrod - I believe a guilty Brinn would act differently.

Now Rikae... I can quite imagine her looks when she was posting that, she was laughing aloud - but then it's still the question whether she is a cobbler (Nerwen, I believe cobbler is some sort of a pie or something... is that correct?) or something else...
And I would like to bring forward that she's lying (about not being lynched in ten previous games): I can remember very well that in the first game I was playing, she was lynched the first day. And that was, if I'm correct, WW XXX, so it's only nine games ago.

The Might is a new one around here, so there is nothing much to compare his behavior with. He has this interesting double-triple-whatever-combination theory that I know very well (using that often ), but this does not signify anything by itself, only a style of playing (maybe). It will need more input. I'm a little bit afraid to let this out of my lips, because people may start sticking to that, and some balrogs the most, and that's not good; but I'll be probably reluctant to vote for someone of the new ones on the first day. Though, it is true that this far, they all seem quite active (or at least, make that impression), so maybe with enough input, there will be enough evidence to lynch one of them even toDay

But sally and Nerwen, to this point, seem quite genuine to me. Maybe sally... I don't know, maybe it's his style, the second paragraph of his post does not fit the whole frame of his post, or so it seems to me... we all know that saying "I am innocent" is the most ambivalent thing to be done... but whatever. Let's wait yet.

Heck, I don't have time now, have to leave. But I will be back in a few hours, finish my thoughts (mainly on Rikae, for I did not have chance to finish it all; and on Mith, about whom I'll surely say something), and then probably vote.

[Brinniel]

So far:

Nogrod- So far, most of him posts seem to be banter. Up until he criticises the "just dropping in" posts that have little substance. Could be a balrog hiding among harmless joking, but at this point it is hard to say.

Mithalwen- Taps in on the thought that we cannot discard anyone; non-participation could be a strategy. Not sure what to think...I alway have a hard time forming opinions of Mith, and usually when I do, I am wrong.

Lhuna- Haven't really heard from her except for her comment on lovers.

Legate- Appears to be the most helpful poster so far. And I happen to agree with mostly what he says. At this point, he doesn't ring any alarms.

Might-

Well, I could just as well start thinking if Lhunardawen really means it when she says "we innocent miners" implying she's a good person or if she only wants to mislead us, or if it's reverse-reverse-reverse-psychology.

Okay, I find this quote here to be rather confusing. I don't want to simply disregard newbies, but I don't know Might's style, so I'm not sure whether this confusing behaviour is suspicious or not...

Volo- So far, he has given no real substance.

Nerwen- I do agree with her thoughts on Rikae. So far, she gives off an innocentish vibe.

Shasta- Comments on Rikae's self-vote. Otherwise, no real substance.

Sally- At first I was really confused with her cobbler comment because I thought she was talking about the cobbler role, but now I realise she was just creating a metaphor with dessert. Silly me.

Anyways, I don't get any vibes from her just yet, but I would like to hear more from her.

Rikae- Oh, Rikae. I think her post was meant to cause controversy, and certainly it has. The possibilites:

-She is an innocent who either doesn't care much for her own survival, or she simply won't be able to return before deadline, therefore she chooses to accuse herself rather than point fingers at random players for no real reason.
-She is a cobbler and is trying to confuse us all (and hey, it's working).
-She is a balrog who thinks her self-vote will be viewed as too attention drawing and foolish to actually be suspicious and disregarded by most players.

Err...I'm not sure what to think. I really hope she comes back to explain herself.

So far, Gil, Mac, Kath, and Naria have yet to speak. I really hope they do turn up; we can't afford yet another game of no-shows.

It's way too late and I must go to bed now. Just a heads up: I have to vote 2 1/2 hours early. So if you have something to say, say it before then.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Huh? What? Nothing happened while I was away? Or are you all waiting for me to finish? How nice of you.

So, a few more thoughts. First, Rikae:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

At first glance, her vote against herself appears to be either a joke or an act of self-sacrifice. But a single vote against her doesn't really endanger her very much. Let's look at its immediate effect– to divert suspicion from herself.

Hmm... it may be so. One could say, having in mind what you said, that she is really asking to be lynched. You want to be lynched? Okay, we'll give you that! If you are a cobbler, no harm done. If you are a balrog, here we go - we caught you! However, this point of view would be a little oblivious to the possibility that Rikae is innocent. Personally, I don't see an ordo Rikae likely to risk in such a manner in order to divert suspicion from herself (if anything, it would have to be a joke). However, since she did not comment on her behavior this far, one cannot drop in too much conclusions...

Second, Mithalwen. There is something on her behavior that seems a little bit... confusing to me (or is it: confused?). That sort of a jumpylooking-jokinglyaccusing-nothingsaying-deepvalleyblack-deepvalleyforested gloomyland, err, wait, that was something else... anyway; what was I saying, her posts seem, well yes, confusing. Though on second look, there is something of real value inside them (like what she says about some people not willing to lynch the ones who did not have the chance to speak), but nevertheless, it's confusing.

People like Shasta, Volo, and who knows who else was here and slips under my radar, is slipping under my radar, for there was hardly anything that caught my attention about them. Now if that itself could be taken as a sign of danger... I'm leaving this thought to others. Currently, I'm afraid that I don't have ANY high suspect, which is really bad.
Oh, now, really! I just noticed one person whom I totally left out. Lhuna is one of those I have not noticed at all. Interesting. *points up* What does that say, that either I am just oblivious or that she is so inconspicious... (maybe intentionally...)

But, good news at least, it looks like I'll be able to make it for the DL after all, even though it might be in a hurry, but still I believe something that will point me in some direction may show up meanwhile.

And where are those who did not post at all yet?

EDIT: just x-ed with Brinn. Shame, you destroyed the effect of my opening of the post, having two posts in line...

[Macalaure]

I don't have much time right now, but here are a few thoughts.


Nogrod is a little too happy for my liking. He ridiculously over-analyses the first 10 posts, making it look like a parody of "looking helpful while not being helpful". I can see his traffic-jam argument, but something about him doesn't entirely sit right with me - at least this early. We'll see.


I'm tempted to call "cobbler" on Rikae, but I can't help but to think she would play that role differently, staying calm and waiting to make a devastating impact late in the game. Rikae, my dear, you leave me confused.
Good points about her by Nerwen and Legate.


The Might says little and then snaps at the first little suspicion against him. Though it's not very helpful, it feels rather innocent.

Brinn starts by saying nothing and only agreeing. She then snaps at the first criticism, too. In her case, it seems less innocent than in TM's. Her later thoughts appear much better, though.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

There's no use throwing non-random suspicions if a lot still have not spoken up

There isn't?

[Kath]

I'm here, but I won't be for long I'm afraid. I've got to get on a train in about an hour and then I won't be able to get on a computer before the deadline. It's going to mean a very early vote though, so time to look at what's been going on.

Noggie ~ I'm tempted to try and kill him off already just to keep the number of pages down! Has posted nothing while posting a lot. Keeps calling for people to talk which, yeah, great, but we know that and after the third post asking for chat you don't really need to do it again. Plus, that post that concluded everyone he'd looked at was a possible balrog? I don't know, maybe it's just his playing style this game, but it's making me suspicious.

Mith ~ Being a little down in the dumps, but then the numbers often look bad from the start.

Legate ~ The xyzzy comment, am I missing something? Seems to have the opposite opinion of Noggie to me, but then so do most people usually. He is being a bit pedantic about Rikae though. 9 games is very close to 10. Maybe there was a miscount, or he missed a junior game. It just feels like suspecting for the sake of suspecting.

The Might ~ Has definitely picked up 'how to be confusing' from someone. I'd say Nilp but it looks like Rikae it the one who has taken advice from him!

Brinn ~ I'm liking her posts. Straightforward and not worrying a point to death.

Lhuna ~ I think we might be wise to follow Lhuna's advice on lovers. She's been one so many times she probably does know how to deal with them! Of course, she knows how to deal with them from the inside so we might actually want to do the opposite of whatever she says!

Rikae ~ Well, as I said, someone's been taking lessons from Nilp! Are you one who dislikes Day 1's or did you just have no time and decide to vote for yourself because so few people had spoken?

Nerwen ~ Not sure I understand her. She said Rikae voting for herself was a way to divert suspicion, and then asks us to look at others reactions as proof of that. Yet if we look at Brinn's reaction in particular there is definitely no diverting of suspicion there, more the opposite. I would actually say it was an attempt to divert suspicion from other people if there's anything sinister at all. Perhaps Rikae is the cobbler? Unlikely to draw attention to herself so early on though.

Sally ~ Had the thought about Rikae being the cobbler too. But also says 'oh yes, I'm an innocent' right from the start, which just immediately makes me suspect her.

Shasta ~ Mentions Rikae's vote.

Volo ~ Pops up with an excuse for not being here but adds nothing constructive.

Mac ~ Well, I have some support for my suspicion of Noggie at least. His points seem pretty well made.

We have, what, three newbies this game? The Might, Sally and Nerwen. Unless one of them actually comes out and says 'I'm a balrog, please lynch me' I'm pretty much going to ignore them in terms of possible lynchees for toDay at least because I've been killed first Day as a newbie and it sucks.

Otherwise my suspects seem to consist of Noggie, Legate and very possibly Lhuna. Ignore the lovers she says, perhaps too bold for someone who actually is one, but it's still worth looking at.

Now, since I really do have to go and he is my top suspect:

++NOGGIE

[Mithalwen]

Very quick post ..... Either Nog is over analysing or suspicious ..... I am not that calculating believe me ... I just believe one should particiapate as much as possible and in the early hours of the game stating ther only thing to talk about was the basic situation and possibilities (apart to flippant refs to those who have bamboozled me in the past). Given the non retractable votes I thought it particulary important to remind of a few possibilities...

RIkae -Cobbler? crazy or genius? discuss....

[Nogrod]

Oh Kath... you're on it again.

I've only had time to skim through the posting toDay and need to attend a meeting in half an hour. I will be back with hopefully more elaborate points then for the last couple of hours of the Day and with some actual time to do something.

This far I'm feeling pretty good about Brinn and Nerwen. They both have made good points and contributed to important questions. Same could be said of Legate as well, but with him I would be a step more cautious.

Shasta and Volo I'm a bit disappointed about this far but I hope they will straighten their backs and get into the fray yet toDay.

Of those posted I'm somewhat worried over Rikae, Mith and Lhuna, possibly Sally too.

With Rikae it's pretty clear she's no gifted so in a sense we can lynch her with no fear of losing an important aiding role to us. But Rikae can be an important aid as a player when the game gets going. So I'm a bit reluctant to vote her on Day1.

Mith I talked about earlier and must say I still have the same points that bother me. But that's somewhat weak in any case.

Lhuna just feels foul. I don't know why in any analytical measures. Maybe it's because she has once already tricked me by being just like she is now - going under radar as a sensible person and then on the right moment attacking ruthlessly. I may counting too much on my previous experiences though.

Sally's way of discussing Rikae can easily be read as a balrog-defence of another balrog. Also her point that she is "quite certain" about her innocense sounds odd indeed. But that's not much I admit.

Sorry. Have to go now. I'll be back.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I don't have much time right now, but here are a few thoughts.

I'm tempted to call "cobbler" on Rikae, but I can't help but to think she would play that role differently, staying calm and waiting to make a devastating impact late in the game. Rikae, my dear, you leave me confused.

Well, I don't really know any of you people yet, but I agree that it doesn't make sense for the cobbler to try and get lynched at this point.

On the other hand, if she merely wants to get us hopelessly confused... it's working.