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Macalaure · 06-04-2015, 12:48 PM

Nerwen's “And Mac and Mith just sort of crawl on to the waggon.” irked me, so I looked back to refresh my memory of events, and then I got carried away and it turned into this.

Agan, Lommy, and everyone around.

#66 Agan jokes about killing Europeans
#67 morm jokes back
#69 Agan misunderstands morm's joke in a way that, to me, strongly suggests a wolf slip
#70 Lommy crosses with Agan, and in the edit is immediately notices it
#74 Greenie thinks Agan was trolling, not slipping
Then the whole thing disappears for a whole stretch of time. Nobody comments on it on page 3 at all.
#123,127 Agan posts, not commenting on Lommy's #70
#129 Lommy returns and makes her case against Agan. A case that I consider solid.
#131 Yours truly lists Agan as suspicious, refering to #69 (crossing with Lommy, which in light of Nerwen's suspicion is probably important)
#139 Lommy lists Agan as suspicious
#144 Agan replies to Lommy's case. Now she does quote #70. She states she understood morm's joke and simply continued it (could be). She also asks what a wolf would gain from her behavior, which doesn't make sense, since the accusation is about a wolf slip.
#150 morm says that he took Agan's #69 as a joke, but that her behavior since raises eyebrows
#155 Agan votes Lommy.
#157 Lommy votes Agan and defends her case. Some of her point 3) seems a bit far-fetched. It's worth noting that Lommy is still around afterwards to make a few more posts.
#159 morm states again that Agan is behaving oddly
#165 Shasta states that he didn't see Agan's slip, but suspects her due to her reaction
#166 Lommy replies to Agan one last time.
#168 Yours truly states his intent to vote for Agan
#170 Form says that their argument is fishy, but that we will only see the truth in a few Days. States they could both be wolves, one could be a wolf, or both could be innocent (duh), but suspects one is a wolf (maybe I thought was most likely innocent too quickly, because this post looks bad)
#172 Nogrod takes up Lommy's case
#174 McCaber says he didn't like Lommy's reaction, but felt it innocent. Agan's reaction felt opportunistic/trying to provoce reaction to him.
#178 After not commenting on the exchange in his detailed list before, Legate now comments. If one is a wolf, it's Agan to him, but most likely both innocent.
#181 Nog votes Agan, not mentioning the argument, but citing different reasons (doesn't mean he discarded the older points, and is probably just adding to them?)
#182 Mith comments on a different post of Agan, suspecting misinformation by her (smelling a bandwaggon and trying to jump on without being too obvious about it? Nah, I think she's genuine.)
#184 Rikae says Agan-Lommy looks wolf-on-wolf, no explanation
#186 list by Form: Lommy too defensive but probably innocent, Agan more innocent than guilty
#188 I'm feeling like repeating myself and say that I'm still going to vote for Agan
#190 Form votes himself. Also thinks that Agan could be guilty, but not strongly enough.
#193 Mith votes Agan
#194 tp needs stuff explained to him

#196 Lottie sees where the Agan suspicions come from, but she's not her top choice
#197 tp wants to vote Nog over Agan/Form, but only with support
#200 Firefoot thinks the argument was odd, but doesn't know which looks more suspicious
#202 Lottie offers to go along with tp
#203 Eomer thinks both Lommy and Agan are most likely innocent
#204 McCaber votes Agan. Out of the ones he'd considered, she had the best chance of getting lynched
#205 Lottie tells Eomer not to count Lommy/Agan out just because they were loud
#206 Boro calls Agan's #69 an innocent(!) Freudian slip
#208 Rikae says she suspected Agan earlier but doesn't now anymore (but Agan hasn't posted in a while, what changed your mind?) Lists Lommy as an option for her
#210 Nilp “echoes others' sentiment that it looks wolf-on-wolf” (thought Nilp was pretty innocent so far, but I'm not liking this one that much)
#215 Rikae votes for Lommy
#216 I vote for Agan
#220 Lottie feels more strongly about Nogrod than Agan and votes him
#222 Eomer votes for Nogrod because he doesn't buy into Lommy/Agan wolfness (could have picked Form earlier on)
#223 Shasta votes for Nogrod since he's more suspicious than Agan, though it seems like they are both good options to him

Ugh, not going to do the same for toDay, as I originally thought I'd do.

Thoughts:
I still think Agan is most likely a wolf, but I'll grant that there's a possibility that she's innocent. But why then was she so upset about Lommy's suspicion? It just makes more sense for a wolf who messed up.
I don't see why Lommy is suspicious to some people, and especially the wolf-on-wolf people (Form,Rikae,Nilp) raise eyebrows to me, Form especially. Firefoot's “I don't know who's more suspicious” raises one, too.
Shasta stays a little bit on the fringes, going for Nogrod in the end. Lottie, too.
I don't see Mith's involvement as suspicious. McCaber might look a bit opportunistic, but I don't really think so.
Boro's “innocent Freudian slip” is a red flag I didn't notice before. The way I see it, it was either an innocent joke, or a not-innocent Freudian slip. Or am I seeing something wrong?
Of the others involved, morm, Legate, and Eomer look fine. Greenie's comment could be interpreted wolfishly: trying to calm the flames first, then staying far away once everything's on fire.

06-04-2015, 12:48 PM	#312
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	Nerwen's “And Mac and Mith just sort of crawl on to the waggon.” irked me, so I looked back to refresh my memory of events, and then I got carried away and it turned into this. Agan, Lommy, and everyone around. #66 Agan jokes about killing Europeans #67 morm jokes back #69 Agan misunderstands morm's joke in a way that, to me, strongly suggests a wolf slip #70 Lommy crosses with Agan, and in the edit is immediately notices it #74 Greenie thinks Agan was trolling, not slipping Then the whole thing disappears for a whole stretch of time. Nobody comments on it on page 3 at all. #123,127 Agan posts, not commenting on Lommy's #70 #129 Lommy returns and makes her case against Agan. A case that I consider solid. #131 Yours truly lists Agan as suspicious, refering to #69 (crossing with Lommy, which in light of Nerwen's suspicion is probably important) #139 Lommy lists Agan as suspicious #144 Agan replies to Lommy's case. Now she does quote #70. She states she understood morm's joke and simply continued it (could be). She also asks what a wolf would gain from her behavior, which doesn't make sense, since the accusation is about a wolf slip. #150 morm says that he took Agan's #69 as a joke, but that her behavior since raises eyebrows #155 Agan votes Lommy. #157 Lommy votes Agan and defends her case. Some of her point 3) seems a bit far-fetched. It's worth noting that Lommy is still around afterwards to make a few more posts. #159 morm states again that Agan is behaving oddly #165 Shasta states that he didn't see Agan's slip, but suspects her due to her reaction #166 Lommy replies to Agan one last time. #168 Yours truly states his intent to vote for Agan #170 Form says that their argument is fishy, but that we will only see the truth in a few Days. States they could both be wolves, one could be a wolf, or both could be innocent (duh), but suspects one is a wolf (maybe I thought was most likely innocent too quickly, because this post looks bad) #172 Nogrod takes up Lommy's case #174 McCaber says he didn't like Lommy's reaction, but felt it innocent. Agan's reaction felt opportunistic/trying to provoce reaction to him. #178 After not commenting on the exchange in his detailed list before, Legate now comments. If one is a wolf, it's Agan to him, but most likely both innocent. #181 Nog votes Agan, not mentioning the argument, but citing different reasons (doesn't mean he discarded the older points, and is probably just adding to them?) #182 Mith comments on a different post of Agan, suspecting misinformation by her (smelling a bandwaggon and trying to jump on without being too obvious about it? Nah, I think she's genuine.) #184 Rikae says Agan-Lommy looks wolf-on-wolf, no explanation #186 list by Form: Lommy too defensive but probably innocent, Agan more innocent than guilty #188 I'm feeling like repeating myself and say that I'm still going to vote for Agan #190 Form votes himself. Also thinks that Agan could be guilty, but not strongly enough. #193 Mith votes Agan #194 tp needs stuff explained to him #196 Lottie sees where the Agan suspicions come from, but she's not her top choice #197 tp wants to vote Nog over Agan/Form, but only with support #200 Firefoot thinks the argument was odd, but doesn't know which looks more suspicious #202 Lottie offers to go along with tp #203 Eomer thinks both Lommy and Agan are most likely innocent #204 McCaber votes Agan. Out of the ones he'd considered, she had the best chance of getting lynched #205 Lottie tells Eomer not to count Lommy/Agan out just because they were loud #206 Boro calls Agan's #69 an innocent(!) Freudian slip #208 Rikae says she suspected Agan earlier but doesn't now anymore (but Agan hasn't posted in a while, what changed your mind?) Lists Lommy as an option for her #210 Nilp “echoes others' sentiment that it looks wolf-on-wolf” (thought Nilp was pretty innocent so far, but I'm not liking this one that much) #215 Rikae votes for Lommy #216 I vote for Agan #220 Lottie feels more strongly about Nogrod than Agan and votes him #222 Eomer votes for Nogrod because he doesn't buy into Lommy/Agan wolfness (could have picked Form earlier on) #223 Shasta votes for Nogrod since he's more suspicious than Agan, though it seems like they are both good options to him Ugh, not going to do the same for toDay, as I originally thought I'd do. Thoughts: I still think Agan is most likely a wolf, but I'll grant that there's a possibility that she's innocent. But why then was she so upset about Lommy's suspicion? It just makes more sense for a wolf who messed up. I don't see why Lommy is suspicious to some people, and especially the wolf-on-wolf people (Form,Rikae,Nilp) raise eyebrows to me, Form especially. Firefoot's “I don't know who's more suspicious” raises one, too. Shasta stays a little bit on the fringes, going for Nogrod in the end. Lottie, too. I don't see Mith's involvement as suspicious. McCaber might look a bit opportunistic, but I don't really think so. Boro's “innocent Freudian slip” is a red flag I didn't notice before. The way I see it, it was either an innocent joke, or a not-innocent Freudian slip. Or am I seeing something wrong? Of the others involved, morm, Legate, and Eomer look fine. Greenie's comment could be interpreted wolfishly: trying to calm the flames first, then staying far away once everything's on fire.