[Legate of Amon Lanc]

But it addresses the Night and stuff early toDay, so that it's neatly together.

So, basic ideas: the phantom would simply be killed because. just because. I mean, I sincerely doubt the WWs would have killed him just because he told them to do so. Who would!!! But, if tp is not a member of your pack, you probably consider him dangerous whichever the case. Imagine. If he is a Seer, you want him dead, if he is a Wolf of the opposite pack, you totally want him dead as well. And in fact, with the "kill me" encouragement, the WWs might have thought him a Hunter and wanted to get rid of him early on (especially if they felt safe from him??? Anyway, I think this is already a stretch, but simply put, there are like a million reasons to kill the Phantom).

Rune is of course more interesting question, I have also rearead his posts, I'll get to it in a sec.

But first - by the way. Let us bear one thing in mind. The pack that killed Rune might have contained the phantom (and vice versa. By the way what is it that makes it fairly automatic to assume Rune wasn't a Wolf? I mean, nobody much would think of it by default, right, whereas with tp it at least crosses people's minds?).

Speaking of that, given that there was the possibility that both packs might have targeted tp if he was innocent - I mean, really! Look at it, and he actually was targeted by one pack, and I think we are clear on that there are plenty of reasons to want to kill him, so the other pack might have considered it as well, and it simply didn't for some reason. - anyway, given that possibility, I would consider tp being part of one of the packs. At least it's an extra reason, even though of course different Wolves might think differently etc etc.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Rune didn't do much, but he was, well, tense, without much reason. Could be the wolves took that as a sign of giftedness. His vote was for Formendacil, but it doesn't look like the vote was because he dreamt of him, but just because he was there. He also suspected Greenie, but again, not in a way that looks seer-ish to me. If he was gifted, then he wasn't the seer, and obviously not the hunter either. Losing ranger or lovers this early would hurt us. They're not bringing anything of value back to us at this point.

Who knows. Regarding the Greenie thing, that actually interests me, since I am still fairly suspicious of her (also after seeing her post toDay, see below). If Greenie was a Wolf, and her pack thought Rune a Seer, I'd say it would be a good reason for killing: the Form vote from Rune might have been interpreted in any way, but the WWs could think that Rune is about to dream her, which would be a brilliant reason (stopping the Seer kind of unconspiciously before he can do the actual harm, also, because the theoretical suspicion would be fairly unclear, it would be a good kill as it wouldn't leave so good tracks pointing at Greenie). Lot of speculation to be sure, but working with all the possibilities and the little info we have.

Originally Posted by Mac

Form giving himself the third vote makes it very unlikely that he's gifted (I think I may say this much openly), but I also think it makes it unlikely for him to be a wolf. Very risky move there, and without any pressure.

Generally agreed. Makes sense.

Aganzir remains suspicious to me, which, before Nogrod started receiving votes, makes me wonder why none of her mates voted for Form. Maybe they already voted earlier, maybe they were waiting, or maybe she's not a wolf after all.

In any case, I think the early Nogrod voters are actually quite innocent-looking at the moment (yes, I know, wolves hunt wolves in this game). There were simply easier targets available to them at that point.

I'm grasping straws a little.

You are, here. One thing is also that I am not sure how much would WWs try to save a fellow by a bandwagon in this game in such a visible manner. The danger is you get spotted by both the village and the other pack. Of course they would probably try to save the comrades, but probably in as unconspicuous way as possible. The village is still big and they have to last long.

Same for painting the Nog votes as innocent - there are always easy targets. But, to be sure, there is something to what you are saying, there probably would be at least one baddie among the Nog voters - regardless of Nog's actual role and the role of the bandwagon. Just too good a bandwagon to pass, and I would even imagine a baddie somewhere among the earlier voters. I will want to take a look at the voters, actually, and try to think something about them.

Originally Posted by mormegil

A very odd conclusion. I would imagine that the wolves would be much more concerned about getting the Seer early on as that is their greatest threat, it's what I would do. You are trying to make a case against a dead man, why? If anything, I would imagine that the wolves thought Rune was the Seer and now a Sallywolf is attempting to have us think differently. Sorry for no bolding, I'm using my phone and it's past bedtime. Goodnight

Agreed with Morm here, sally's post did not really make much sense there. Not sure if I'd think of her being a WW immediately, but it is weird.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?

Morm's response here seems weirdly defensive. Potentially a packmate worried that, should Rune be seen as a potential wolf, they (that is, Rune and morm) might be tied together?

Although this is weirder, to be honest. I don't understand what would be "weirdly defensive" about morm's post. If you said "weirdly offensive" (towards sally), then perhaps. This looks defensive to me, to be honest - you being defensive of sally. Alarm flashes a bit.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Well, I suppose he did ask them to kill him. As for Runebug, I agree with Rikae, morm and Nerwen that the wolves might have had him down as a potential Seer with the way he seemed quite tense and the way he stressed that none of his suspicions was really a proper suspicion. Also, the exchange between Sally and morm (and others) looks very interesting, I'll get back to it in a moment. In any case, at least based on these two kills I'd say our two Wolfgangs (R.I.P. Nogrod) have very different strategies. The thing is, though, that even if they target the Seer, which they are likely to do, they won't know if they've caught him/her or not. Which means that they could spend the whole game targeting "potential Seers" (or, at least, until there's a reveal or something). Not sure how this is related to anything, but anyway.

Okay, here we get to the thing I mentioned above: this post again has horribly fishy tone. Especially the "by the way sally morm are weird, nudge nudge?" like these classic casual remarks Wolves do in order to nudge others to lynch people. In any case (to put it positively), it should be clear that at least one, and maybe neither of those isn't in a pack with Greenie if she is a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

At 2.30am Phantom proposes a lynching of Nogs - then Boro, Loslote follow this - and then, in the last five minutes before deadline, we have Eomer, Shasta and Sally all piling in. Who is saved by this flurry? Aganzir. (Form has fallen behind)
So, we have a couple of possible scenarios*. Either Phantom was right - Nogs was furry and Aganzir rightfully saved. Or perhaps Nogs was right and Agan was furry. His guesses might even have been so accurate that the wolves suspected him of being the Seer. Hence the flurry to get him lynched?
Anyway, I am inclined to think that Nogs was innocent, and thus Aganzir is looking suspicious to me as a result of all this.

Good points there, Agan also came back very humbly after yesterDay's end, which could also be that now she would like it to be swept under the rug now that she had managed to survive it. But with all that, I am not sure if a WolfAgan would act that way at all. Also what I said about bandwagoning, not sure if the WWs would be that obviously saving a mate. But yeah.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes, the Nog-waggon looks like a response to the Agan-waggon to me, too. And yet, I'm not sure that necessarily points to her being a wolf saved by her packmates; the Agan-waggon itself seems pretty dubious to me- very forced-looking "suspicions", so I could see honest players might react to *that*. While we're here, though, how do you know both scenarios weren't right?

Actually it would be interesting to rather think of both wagons as some baddie-orchestrated nonsense, not necessarily to save anyone, but just to wreak havoc, too. But anyway, have to think about it more still.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

First off -

Rune and the phantom? Interesting. I have nothing much to add as of yet, and no idea what to make of the phantom's successful request to be killed. (Maybe the wolves thought he's the hunter and decided to take the risk now that it's statistically the lowest? But would the phantom as a hunter really do that on Day1? Or would the wolves think he would?)

Yep, the hunter thing - exactly what I thought as well. I really think it might be a plausible reason.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Anyway, in hindsight, I think it quite likely the phantom was an ordo and thus had no qualms about painting a target on his own back (as Boro phrased it) because he's a staunch supporter of ordos sacrificing themselves for the gifted, and I think he might have also been curious about the opportunity to seize control of the dead thread.

That's what I thought yesterDay; that he is possibly an ordo. But then exactly the question is: if the WWs thought it as well, and knew about him sacrificing himself happily and so on, would they kill him? But maybe the added value of having a "cleaner thread" would have been better? But no, WWs could probably actually benefit from messier thread - in the beginning, that is; not later when everything you say will be brought against you and the more people there are, the more you say, by default, since you have to interact with more people (but also hide better in the crowd and do not have to interact with everyone, which is a great advantage). Hm, whatever, I think that depends a lot on what kind of Wolves we are talking about. Once we'd learn the identity of some WWs, we could speculate whether a pack containing this or that person would kill the phantom... but at that point, not sure if it will be relevant anymore (except if by that time we are still struggling with knowing the roles of all the people concerned).

Originally Posted by Lommy

About Nogrod - well, as I was going to bed yesterDay before the DL, I was starting to think him more and more suspicious, mostly because of his "let's lynch the phantom" meme but in retrospect I don't really know. Nogrod is quite a typical Day1 lynch and not because he'd be a wolf awfully often, so I can see the village reacting quite knee-jerkily to him again. I guess the bottom line is that a little rereading wouldn't hurt me.

I actually also started thinking Nog was pressing the phantom kill a bit too much. But hard to say. Well he's dead now, we should probably shift focus again mainly on the living, until we have a more solid info about what is happening.

EDIT: x-ed since Lommy and all