Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure
Grimoire thread, post #190
Chances of lynching wolves, based on the first 31 games played:
Day 1: 29% (sample size: 34)
Day 2: 31% (36)
Day 3: 43% (40)
Day 4: 35% (34)
Day 5: 34% (29)
Day 6: 29% (17)
Day 7: 55% (11)
Day 8: 0% (3)
All better than the random 25% we have, and it looks even better considering that most villages have a smaller wolf ratio than ours.
Now I'm itching to turn these into confidence intervals.  But the sample sizes are small, so the result would probably not be very good. Maybe if I compiled it for all games played, but do I really want to do that?  |
Actually I think ours might even be the usual ratio. The average game I remember is something like 16 players, 4 wolves or 12 players, 3 wolves.
Still, slightly better than chance. It is known!