[Aganzir]

Helloooo.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Well then, since I have permission, I do believe I'll work on a very non-fluffy post.

The opposite of fluffy is smutty, isn't it?

I was going to do the numbers thing but the phantom beat me to it. Hardly surprising considering that I missed the first half of day 1. (I didn't play from work though! Well technically I'm still at the office, only not working anymore but waiting for Lommy).

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I see a small hitch here. How can we believe anyone's claim if no roles are revealed upon death? There's no way of checking a claim, so basically we could have Seers revealing left, right and centre with no one able to verify which one is telling the truth - or, at least, no one but a resurrected dead person, and even that ony about whoever the dead happen to have checked.

And how can we know if the seer has died? We may think somebody was killed for "possibly looking like the seer", but even then we won't know for sure. I wouldn't presume to advise the seer (still never having been one), but if they happen to dream of another gifted, establishing a connection (if it can be done discreetly enough not to endanger either party) might not be a bad idea at all. That way at least there'd be somebody to steer the village (discreetly or not) in the right direction at the event of the seer's death.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Basically, we purposefully tie the vote every day and let the Dead decide who gets the bonus vote (and thus who dies). It's possible that it would be a good tactic (because the Dead will always know more than the living as they have access to the roles of the Dead). So basically we just debate which two to place on the chopping block and let the Dead call the shots. I mean, simple odds certainly say that we can trust the dead since 2/3 of them will be Wolf kills (thus unlikely to be Wolves). Plus we'll probably lynch a non-Wolf today.

Ooh I like this idea. It's obviously difficult though because no matter what we do, there will always be the end of day fuss, especially in a village this size, and we just can't prevent cross posting (except with fascistic in-game legislation and vote ordering).

I don't think false reveals are unlikely at all, and I'm willing to bet actual money that we'll see one or more during this game. It's just the kind of brilliant, tempting thing a lot of us are into (not me though, ever!). Ahem, anyway, if a wolf is desperate enough to reveal, she's desperate enough to face the ensuing chaos. Besides wolves like chaos.

I like phantom's idea of passing messages between the living and dead thread and want to think more about it later.

I also like phantom. I don't necessarily find him innocent but I like him. Hey phants I missed you.

I haven't read Legate's posts yet but I'm nominating him for the Nobel Prize for literature. Hah okay he's freaking out. Well for your information man, not all players. (I'm actually quite enjoying myself already.)

If it was possible (which it isn't), I'd like to eliminate one wolf pack at a time. That would get rid of the two night kills. But it won't be possible because wolves are too clever and know how to drive a bandwagon and prey on people's doubts. One can always wish.

Originally Posted by the phantom

We can then tell the Dead thread, "If Lottie was evil give your bonus vote to Rikae or Nerwen, if she was innocent give it to Morm or Green, if you didn't check her give your bonus vote to someone else.

I see a couple of problems here.

1. If the dead mess it up once, for one reason or other, we'll misinterpret vital information.
2. Timezones. Let's say we only kill Europeans - we'll have to vote waaay earlier than you and may miss something important that only comes up later in the day.

I really like Firefoot's post #37. (Have we ever played together? If yes it must have been years and years ago - anyway hi!) I'm strongly in favour of tying the vote today. Normally I'd think it's a rubbish idea, but we learn very little from the lynches, way less than from the wolf kills. That would also save an extra slot for role-finding in the dead thread (it only starts on night 3 in any case, but we can decide whether there's 3 or 4 people to choose from).

Originally Posted by Firefoot

4) As far as victim choice - sort of a shot in the dark anyway - do we go random? Ask for volunteers (at least we don't get a gifted - but then I guess it narrows the wolves' choice for who is gifted, so maybe that's a poor strategy)? Might as well pick Nilp since he's already got a vote?

In any case, if we're doing this, I'll be happy to volunteer (oooh is she a selfless ordo? is she a bluffing gifted? is she a bluffing wolf? is she something else? we can never know) provided that it actually works and you don't lynch me by accident. I was one of the lovers in the last Mandos game and died early thanks to my beloved Lúthien getting killed on Night 2 (blows a kiss at Shasta), and while the Dead Thread is a fun place to be, I'm not going there alone. So TL;DR, vote for me all you like, but if you mess it up, it had better not be me or there will be actual consequences (such as every person who votes for you later having a double vote).

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Well, strategy-maker, I think tying our votes could be useful to attempt to coordinate and leave it in the hands of the Dead who should know more. But to do so today would mean we wouldn't get an active Dead thread until NIGHT 3. It takes 3 Dead to start it, and to have no lynch today would set the Dead thread back 1/2 day.

Well. They start talking as soon as they land there. But see what I just said - they won't start voting on identity reveals until the first night there's 3 of them, and if we lynch somebody today there'll be 4 not 3 people at the first opportunity.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Anyone remember how nobody believed Nogrod was the seer all game last time?

Makes me chuckle. He persistently kept dreaming in the Dead Thread though, only for us to vote to find out his target's "true role" later.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Ah, now we come to the other problem: this plan seems to me virtually to ensure that we occupy two or three days with organising pseudo-lynches of randomly-chosen players, instead of, you know, trying to find wolves.

I'd do it as a one-off thing. There's no sense in continuing it for longer, but today it's as good a plan as any and better than most.

Originally Posted by the phantom

I mean really- we're not going to attempt something useful because we're afraid our own side will suck too much to pull it off? No, no, I'm not okay with that.

This. Thanks phants.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Especially since we as a village have (as I believe Mac said) a 25% chance of catching a wolf, whereas the Night kills have a 15% chance. I'd also like to add that we as a village have a further 21% (5/24) chance of accidentally killing a Gifted, where the Night kills have a 25% (5/20 - assuming we do not ourselves lynch a Gifted toDay) chance of purposefully killing a Gifted. It's much much riskier to trust the wolf killing to the wolves, since they are far more likely to kill a Gifted than a wolf, whereas we are slightly more likely to kill a wolf than a Gifted.

Well, if we lynch an innocent today, the wolves' chance of killing a gifted increases as well. In the end it comes down to whether we want slightly better odds for not killing gifteds, or deaths that give us more information (because what we learn from the unknown day 1 lynch doesn't amount to much in the end).