[Shastanis Althreduin]

Cop re: #231 - The biggest point in McCaber's favor is that no one has stepped forward to contradict him. If he's not the other Lover, there's no reason for the real other Lover not to speak up.

On to my heart and Eonwe -

The first salvo is Eonwe at #232.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Really? For someone who talks about unnecessary posting, the last two posts were an awfully long way of saying 'a Holby dream was more likely'. And then there's this point:
What you're saying here is that the sorcerers would rather kill a new player whose playing style they know nothing about and which gained him/her a lot of suspicion and confusion instead of someone who everyone thought was innocent and was fairly no-trace after the first day? Considering the normal depth of your analysis, this looks like it could be a sneaky way to make it look like you didn't consider the situation fully to look more like an innocent. I'm starting to see where the Nerwen-votes are coming from. And Holby voting for you as she died does not help.

Not to mention that I thought we'd already agreed on the Holby-dream being the most likely. I don't think anyone actually suggest a Kath-dream to be more likely, except for me within the context of a 'make-it-look-like-we-though-Echo-is-a-seer' kill.

edit: x-ed with Cop

Considering that Eonwe posted three times at the beginning of the day when one would have sufficed...

In any case, taking this argument post by post I can see the merits of thinking the wolves would rather not have killed new, confusing Echo on the very first night over no-trace Inzil. However, leaping to such a concrete suspicion of Nerwen is just that - a leap.

Nerwen responds -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No. I’m saying that if Kath was a wolf, Echo on Day One would have probably looked more like a gifted to the wolves than Inzil. This is a very simple and obvious point, such as I should have expected an experienced player like yourself to grasp quite easily. The fact that you don’t– or at least you claim you don’t... interesting...


I thought I had better do an analysis just to settle the matter, and just in case there was something more to be gleaned. There wasn’t, but how could I know that until I’d done it?

Again, a simple, routine procedure. And yet, according to you, a sign of wickedness. Really.


You mean Holby..., right?

My dear one is pretty known for her skills at analysis at this point - it's an odd sort of game if she doesn't do at least three. Given that, I'm not sure why Eonwe finds it a wolvish trait.

Moving on, Nerwen continues -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh yes–

I haven’t finished with you, yet, Mr Eonwe.

This is what you actually said, earlier in the Day (my bolding):



Here it is, plain and clear: you stated that Echo’s death potentially implicated three players (with “Holby as sorcerer” being the least likely “dream”).

I took the (considerable) trouble to examine the evidence in some detail, in the course of this demonstrating why it didn’t actually support your conclusions.

This, according to you, is a highly sinister course of action, not to mention useless, since–

Who’s “we"? You certainly hadn’t.

Here Nerwen points out a seeming contradiction in Eonwe's logic - calling the evil Holby dream as "least likely", then turning that on its head and saying it was "most likely".

Eonwe responds -

Originally Posted by Eönwë

New players are unpredictable. And with the way Echo was posting, I could definitely see the wolves opting to wait another day. If they went for him/her, it would totally implicate Kath whether or not Echo was actually the Seer. In this scenario, they would have been on the alert for seerishness from Echo yesterDay, and, well, they were definitely given it. And anyway, I find it unlikely that Zil was attempt at a gifted at all.


Ok, I know it was late and my wording was less than clear, but the two paragraphs are obviously separate scenarios. In the first one, Holby being dreamt is implicit- why would they fear Echo otherwise? In the second, it's meant to be how a wolf-Kath would approach it, and obviously for her it would be better to get people to believe the wolves thought it she that was dreamt.


The next sentence of my post holds the answer (i.e. what I just said above):




Ok, I've actually had a bit of a change of heart about this. I don't think you were posting just to look like you were being helpful. With all the confusingness that is Echo, we need as much clarity and certainty as we can get. Sometimes it is better to be safe than sorry.

What does whether or not the kill of Inzil was aimed at taking out a gifted actually matter in the current situation? This first paragraph really smacks to me of wolvish thought-process. Not something I normally put much stock in when considering someone's guilt or innocence, but this is really blatant.

I'm not understanding the second paragraph much, either. It would be better for Kathwolf for people to believe Kath was dreamt? Or Holby? If Kath, it doesn't make any sense - either way, Kath is basically outed as a dreamed wolf.

And then Eonwe proceeds to back off entirely. An innocent refocusing his energies, or a wolf realizing he's bit off more than he can chew? At the moment I'm leaning towards the latter.

Nerwen responds -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sure. You’re under no obligation to agree with my reasoning. That’s not the point, Steve.


I am aware that you were describing two separate scenarios. However, you said:
"If Echo were a Seer, the most likely dreams would either be Kath as innocent or Holby as a sorcerer. Given the sudden change, and lack of Holby suspicion on D1, the former would be more likely”
Here, yes, you’re talking about your double-bluffing scenario (where Kath is a wolf killing Echo in order to look better). But your statement that Kath would have been the supposed Seer-Echo's “most likely dream" is a general one, not specific to that scenario.

Therefore, the contradiction remains.

Now, again, you don’t have to agree with me on why Echo was killed. I could be completely wrong. Despite the evidence, it may be that the wolves killed Echo for some other reason entirely. Who knows– except them, of course. What I do not appreciate is being heavily attacked simply for analysing the posts of a dead player, and especially for examining them in the light of scenarios suggested by you yourself.

Yes, you’re trying to back away from it all now– but you were ready to scream “sorcerer” at me before. On that note, I particularly don’t care for that little bit you threw in about, “Holby voting for you as she died”. No, not just on personal grounds– I'm actually wondering now if that was something cooked up overnight– “I know, let’s try and pass off Holby’s vote as wolf-on-wolf, heh, heh..."

Nothing too much to say here, this is pretty solid. Although I don't really know if I buy the whole "wolf on wolf" thing.

The radiant moon finishes by voting Eonwe -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

True– but I have been burned quite a few times through thinking “a wolf would never vote like that”.

Anyway, since I can’t put it off any longer

++Steve.

This may look like retaliation, but even before he made that odd attack on me, I’d been uneasy about him because his speculations on the Night-kill seemed rather forced, as though perhaps he was just trying to get the village to waste time on Echo's posts. And the attack on me also seems forced– as I said, perhaps from a wolf looking for a way to capitalise on Holby’s dying vote.

That’s one way of looking at it. To be fair, another is this: Innocent Steve is highly suspicious of Greenie and Cop, to the point of seeing my Echo-analysis as somehow a defence of them (which it isn’t– I merely argued against his theory that the kill itself actually points to them), leading him to suspect me as well.

Sorry I don’t have anything better, but nobody else has been around most of the Day, so I just haven’t have much to go on.

EDIT:X’d with moddess.

The vote is fair enough here. What I'm not sure I approve of is how apologetic Nerwen seems to be about it, both bringing up an instance of how she could be wrong and apologizing for the vote itself. I don't feel like this is typical Nerwen behavior.

Of the two, I do feel Eonwe is more suspicious. However, that last post of Nerwen's does have traits of "oops, my counterattack worked too well, I hope he's not mad."