[Boromir88]

GROUP E

Erebor
FRIENDLIES:
-Minas Tirith (W2-1)
-Mordor (W1-0)

Two wins against inferior teams in the friendlies doesn't say much about Erebor, other than what we already knew. They'll be tough to beat for any of the teams in this group at least.

Their glaring weak link in the back is Thorin. His hot temper has seen him sent off the field too many times. He's not as much of a morale killer as Gorlim, but still it's all the same being red-carded makes your team play a man short. Interestingly enough in 2010, it was Thorin (playing for Rivendell then) being red-carded in the match against the Misty Mountains that allowed Misty Mountains to battle back and get the draw (keeping Rivendell out of the playoffs that year too). Girion's a solid defender that should be able to keep the other offenses in check, but if he can't keep his dwarf under control, Erebor could very well have an early exit. Beorn was nothing short of amazing last year, it seems he's found his true niche on the team.

A lot is going to depend on if Bolg can command the mid-field as he's capable of doing, but he's been up-and-down his whole career. But if the ball gets to the trio of attackers up front, any one of them are capable goal-scorers. Smaug had his best year last year, but even in the years when the dragon's teams got eliminated in their groups Smaug is hard to keep off the scoreboard. Smaug's history shows he's not a FW who is likely to give you a dominating single game performance. He's more a consistant, 1goal/per game type of scorer.


Eriador
FRIENDLIES:
-Anduin (W1-0)
-Barrow Downs (W3-0)

Their competition wasn't any better than Erebor's, but somehow the way they didn't allow a goal as well as still scoring more than any of the other teams in Group E, shows that Eriador is the class of the group.

Elrond's skill and mastery speaks for itself. Hands down the best GK in the tournament. It'll be interesting to see how the defense does compared to last year with two new players on defense (Aragorn and Arwen). Athletically I don't see why they wouldn't do well, and there won't be any problems fitting in with Elrond's system of team and unity first. It doesn't seem like they have anyone that can hold down the aerial threats of Smaug and Scatha though. That task will fall upon Gil-Galad being one of the Noldor though, he should be able to handle the beasties (including Durin's Bane).

As I had to point out to AKM last year, Eriador's MF did their jobs well last year. They're not flashy, they're not going to score a brace of goals, but the rangers work great together. The addition of NogWight won't hurt them either, since he's of like mind...the whole we're stronger together thing Elrond preaches.

Isildur is a noticeable step down from the Witch-King and that will probably hurt Eriador when they're up against tougher competition in the playoffs. Isildur's career is marked by mediocrity (-0.6). We're rather kind saying mediocre but last year really was his worst year, but even before that he was mediocre. He should improve under this team with the stronger mid-field and Glorfindel is top class, but his peak seems to be a few assists and 1 or 2 goals. Speaking of Glorfindel though, he's sort of comparable to Earendil, a well rounded attacking MF/FW...plus he's got an Arda Cup title when playing for Gondolin in 2010.

Misty Mts
FRIENDLIES:
-Imladris (D2-2)
-Barad Dur (L1-2)

Here's a team it appears no one in the media is giving much of a chance too, and we don't understand why...

Their defenses aren't as bad as they might appear in the friendlies. The sons of Elrond still bitter over their mother's capture and torture were clearly playing in a ramped-up revenge mood. And Barad-Dur is a quality offense. Now you're probably saying "wait a second...what about Wilderland and Erebor...both contain dragons!?" But aren't dragons cold-blooded? Anyone else seeing a match-up nightmare with Gwaihir the "Windlord" and Caradhras capable of blasting strong gusts of wind and ice, on the Misty Mts? Well...TTN is predicting one.

The bigger question will come on how many goals they'll be able to score. Probably not good enough to score on Eriador (but the same applies to Wilderland and Erebor). Durin's Bane was called the most over-rated player in 2009, but his game has improved since making the switch to FW. Durin's Bane mind is always on the attack, and it's definitely tough to contain the Balrog. However, when Durin's Bane is contained, it's always easy to frustrate him where he'll recklessly throw away possession. As a MF this is bad, because you've got to back track and play defense, this is less important as a FW and so he's really in the most suitable position.

Azog and Narvi are decent enough, but the rest of the MF is lacking. Seeing as the Misty Mts were not kept off the board in either of their friendlies (and that against a still tough Imladris defense, plus an improved Barad-dur defense) they shouldn't have problems getting chances against Erebor and Wilderland. Those will of course be the key games and as mentioned they already have the evil tactics to get Thorin sent off the field. Durin's Bane may be reckless, but Thorin's recklessness is more costly because he's a DF for Erebor.

Wilderland
FRIENDLIES:
-Dwarves Utd (D0-0)
-Isengard (W2-1)

The defense is not as strong as it appeared in the friendlies. It doesn't take much to keep Dwarves United off the scoreboard, and with Saruman directly calling Radagast a coward, Radagast was inspired to prove his meddle. Truth of the matter is though, from Gandalf's own words, Radagast doesn't have much courage and he'll need it if Wilderland hopes to stop Smaug and Nazgul #7. Then there's Durin's Bane who's just ruthless enough to send elves and armies of dwarves flee in fear (and even Gandalf nervous). The rest of the defense is entirely wooden and Oropher's shown reckless stupidity when his leadership comes under question.

There are many question marks in the mid-field...we'll just have to way and see what the first-born can do. They are prone to wander off the straight road though we'll see if that's applicable on the pitch. Having a Nazgul only ever helps a team, they're all around dependable players. But the wraith will be expected to lend its effort to the attack, which is clearly the strength of the team.

Scatha and Thranduil are reunited and they worked well together playing for Mirkwood back in 2008-09. Their WAR for those two seasons, Scatha +1.9, Thranduil +1.2. They'll have to get back to that old form playing together once again. That's more of questionmark we place on Thranduil, because of all the dragons, Scatha has consistantly performed the best.

Projected Standings:
1. Eriador
2. Misty Mountains
3. Erebor
4. Wilderland

GROUP F

Minas Tirith
FRIENDLIES:
-Erebor (L1-2)
-Gondor (D2-2)

AKM will have you believe that last year they were a team that only advanced to the playoffs because they played in a crummy group. Their group was weak, but the facts are also once in the playoffs...they went INTO Angband, and came out with a victory. Let's take a brief tour of our Arda Cup history and 1st round playoff games hosted by Angband:

2008. Fornost loses 0-2.
2009. Romenna loses 0-2 (and Morgoth wasn't even on that Angband roster, as he was playing for Valimar that year)
2010. Gelion loses 0-2.
2011. Tol Eressea loses 0-1. (Not even the mighty Valar Ulmo could go into Angband and beat Morgoth)

2012, was the first year a team went to Angband, for the 1st round playoff, and beat Morgoth's team...and that was Minas Tirith. The White City was not a fluke last year, nor the product of benefitting from a bad group. And they will not be an easy snack for any team in this group.

Having said all that, gearing up to play 1 match against superior talent is a lot different than trying to sustain that adrenaline and energy against 3 teams...all with superior talent. Plus they play a much different game than Angband. Tirion and Nargothrond will just plain wear down and out run your defenses. Tol Eressea plays a very similar style to Minas Tirith, but they just do a better job at it. So it's a cruel reality for us in the White City, Minas Tirith doesn't have talent to advance from this group...but don't underestimate them. Nor underestimate their ability to give an amazing single game performance that can shuffle the cards in this group and impact which 2 of the 3 others go through.

Nargothrond
FRIENDLIES:
-Armenelos (D3-3)
-Anfauglith (W2-1)

Nargothrond, by appearances, looks to be in better form this year than last. Even if their defenses will still leak big time and Orodreth is not a shut-down GK...WAR tells us he was still a better keeper than Nargothrond attempting to shuffle Beor and Barahir into the position.

It's all going to rest on how well can the FWs hold the ball in their opponents half, and keep up the pressure, because Nargothrond's own mid-field and defense won't be able to do much. This will be a brutal fight to see which 2 can make it out of this group. Nargothrond's style is better against Tirion's who appears to have switched to a more balanced game then their straight out offense when Miriel and Nerdanel were with the team. It's not a good style to play against The Sea or Minas Tirith...because they will defend, defend, defend,..defend with all 11 behind the ball...and defend some more...then hit you with a counter, which Nargothrond's defense will be completely incapable of stopping. So, it will depend on if Orodreth can get a few stops.

The Sea
FRIENDLIES:
-Valimar (W1-0)
-FC Valinor (D0-0)

The Sea's game is simple...they're not going to change it ever and it's a strategy that works fantastic in group rounds, but not extremely successful in the playoffs. We should clarify, not successful because of the way the current roster is built.

Bottomline with this team is, they will always have 11 players defending and it's going to frustrate offenses like no other defense can (I mean they quelched Arien's fire and then not even FC Valinor's forwards could put one in). And unlike Dwarves Utd, Tar Minastir is a much better, more proven forward, than Legolas. Tar Minastir is capable of scoring 2-3 goals a match (maybe not in this system, but point is, the chances he scores at least 1 goal in a game are very high.) He performs better in the group and tends to shrink in the playoffs, however.

Taking a look back at the make up of Vinyamar's 2010 team...you might ask, well how can Ulmo's style not be successful in the playoffs? They were silver-medalists! Yes, but they had Tuor, Penlod, Duilin, and Idril as well. All good at keeping possession but also scoring goals. And there's the problem with this Sea team, only Tar Minastir can be a reliable scorer. The rest of the midfield, great at keeping possession...can't turn that possession into goals.

Tirion
FRIENDLIES:
-Gondolin (W2-0)
-Angband (D1-1)

We are making the picks in this group with very little conviction or confidence...because as much as we look at Nargothrond and think they have a better style against Tirion...we look at Tirion and see their balanced approach is much better against The Sea and Minas Tirith. So, it's just going to be fascinating seeing how this all turns out.

Defensively we (yes) still love the pick up of Caranthir, and that should only benefit Amrod and Amras...who weren't ever able to lead defenses on their own, but should get along fine with Caranthir.

The real question for Tirion is, just how is Tirion going to be able to get the ball up to their FWs...consistantly. Without sacrificing their defensive effort by having to bring Caranthir up, or sacrificing their offense by moving Finwe back to the MF. Mahtan's got a powerful strike, but he's not a possession guy. And well the other mid-fielders are questionmarks. There's no doubt Finwe and Aredhel can score (and also hold the ball up to get Mahtan, Rumil and Caranthir - when necessary - involved), but we can see this being a problem for Tirion.


Projected Standings
1. The Sea
2. Nargothrond
3. Tirion
4. Minas Tirith