[Nerwen]

Nogalysis

#81.
Doesn't like votes so far, especially Gil's for me.

#97.
Still doesn't like Gil's vote, but partly accepts his explanation that it was a "test".

Originally Posted by Nog

Then again, bringing on some pressure by exactly giving a second vote to someone that early could be reasonable tactics to see whether the dog barks the stick hits...

This sounds reasonable, but ignores how late Gil's explanation was in coming, and also the wildness of his claim that his "test" had in fact been a success. Hasty reading? A baddie trying to keep his options open?

#98.
Explains to Pom (#95) that he was saying "thee" not "three" in his poem, and was thus not confused about the number of Wizards.

#97.
Discusses the mechanics of suspicion and bandwaggons. Will neither defend nor suspect Cop "at the moment". Warns us all to beware those who "hold their horses and only have nice things to say about other players".

#124.
Pom's infamous post is "pretty natural" from an innocent, though it could also be the work of a wolf trying to "look considerate".

#129.
Replying to Boro's accusation of being "non-commital" (#123), says he has only had time to "skim through and make some fast general comments".

#134, #135.
Greenie is suspiciously plausible and over-confident, making too detailed a case for her vote: "the wolves, well the Wizards, know how to use their time unlike us". Suspects Gil for his belated explanation. Suspects Pom "a little" because of her post at #124. Not suspicious of the early voters. Most worried about "all the people who fly under our radars at the moment... like Volo, Sally, Lottie, Zil".

#140.

With Cab I'm most bothered about his last answer where he says he voted early because he doesn't like the last ten minute surprises while a) voting hours before the DL, and b) still had over an hour to hang around and post after his vote.

I need to check back about Copper next, as to how bad his vote was to compare to these later developements.

Reasoning in this post is perfectly valid- in fact I agree with it- however, at 30 minutes to go it is Nog's first ever mention of the player he winds up voting.

#147.
Disagrees with the "meme" that Cop claimed her vote was well-substantiated.

#148. Vote-post. (2 minutes before DL.)

Originally Posted by Nog

I'll add...

++ McCaber

So it's Pom now (first with as many votes) with which I agree - so any further votes could be telling us something.

Okay, this one's really weird. Firstly, despite having been fairly active and having discussed various other players, Nog had mentioned McCaber only once before, and not in a way that seemed to indicate particularly strong suspicion. Secondly, if he agrees with the lynch of Pom, why vote someone else? Thirdly- and most significantly- with this post, unless I miscounted, he is actually tying McCaber with Pom, with the outcome still undecided- even though he says "it's Pom now".

Conclusion: Some of this is standard Nog, like his warning against submarines. Some I would accept as legitimate from a player in a hurry due to RL pressures. Overall, though, I think he looks pretty bad. No smoking gun here, but the whole pattern could well fit either a vacillating cobbler or wolf hoping to save his fellow without committing himself too far.

EDIT:X'd with Cop and Brinn.