[the phantom]

Just doing some quick number crunching here. We have 13 players, and currently we have 1 Shelob, 0 Spiderlings, 1 Stung, and 11 Innocents. So, let's see how many failed attempts we can afford.

DAY 1: 1-0-1-11
DAY 2: 1-1-1-9
DAY 3: 1-2-1-7
DAY 4: 1-3-1-5
DAY 5: 1-4-1-3 *game over*

So, four bad lynches gets us dead. And given the odds on Day 4 I'd say realistically three bad lynches in a row nearly kills us.

A successful protection from Sam would keep us alive on Day 5, but the numbers would be 4-5, so all of the Innocents would have to vote correctly and together.

If Sam gets both a protection and a cure we would still be alive on Day 6, but with dead even numbers we'd be as good as dead.

A successful Spiderling lynch would also keep us alive on Day 5, but again it would be tough sledding. A Spiderling lynch paired with a Sam save would again give us a longshot miracle hope for Day 6 but that's about it.

Now, if we manage to get THREE breaks to go our way (Spiderling lynches or Sam protections) then that would give us an actual chance on Day 6.

To summarize- if we kill Sam it seems to me that we're screwed. Because really, we cannot expect to be able to lynch Spiderlings with any regularity given the fact that they are not a true pack and do not have a dependable history to examine.