The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Mandos Thread: DEAD ONLY!

Nogrod · 02-04-2011, 06:53 AM

Sorry, but I'm now going to end this "I know you can't trust me on this issue, but maybe you could be so nice as to consider..." etc. stuff and will go straight into how this game is now. You can then think yourselves whether you consider it worthwhile or not. Up to you.

Residents of Mandos:

Mänwe - ordinary innocent (N3 dream)
Nogrod - the seer
Blind Guardian - innocent whose role has been taken away
Feanor of the Peredhil - ordo or cobbler
Aganzir - Beren (also N1 dream)
Shastanis Althreduin - Lúthien
Thinlómien - ordo or cobbler
Nessa Telrunya - ordinary innocent (N4 dream)
Loslote - ordinary innocent (N5 dream)
Mithalwen - unknown innocent

In the living thread are still:

Glirdan
A Little Green
elronds_daughter
Nerwen
satansaloser2005
the phantom - a cobbler (N2 dream)
Boromir88
Anguirel

So 8 players.

3 wolves (until either Wilwa or Legate were wolves) and at least one cobbler (tp). Unless Mith is the ranger, there are four innocents including the ranger and the hunter.

Be that as it may, the most probable scenario seems to be there are 3 wolves + 1-2 cobblers (wilwa or Legate could have been cobblers but probably not wolves) vs. 3-4 goodies.

Looking at how easily the wolves have handled the lynches thus far there is no reason to believe they'd fare any worse toDay with the remarkably smaller village where they are even able to take some risks toDay to meet their ends.

In any case, they need only two non-wolves killed and they win, while the chances that the villagers manage to actively lynch one of them are slim indeed, in not just nonexistent.

So in practise the thing that could grant us some added time is the hunter getting killed and taking one wolf down with her/him.

Here: enter the cobblers who know their math.

My prediction: the phantom will try to get lynched toDay to give the wolves a non-hunter to the gallows to make it safe for the wolves (and he'd love to get in here to spend even the last Night among us here - basically to brag; I presume

). And why not, if there is another cobbler, s/he might try the same... (whom, if identified correctly by the ranger would lead to the odd situation where the ranger's best bet would be to protect a cobbler...)

A ranger-save could prolong the game with at least one Day as well.

Although the wolves might drive for a double-lynch as well toDay.

All in all, I'm not too optimistic about the general situation, but I am slightly optimistic that we can come up with decently believable chart of the roles down there among the living with the aid of which we could try to help the villagers with the lynch - if they can pull their act together that much as to get one wolf contending for the lynching for real. Without that there's no way we can help them now.

EDIT: X'd with Rikae & Mith - So Legate was a cobbler! Good news for a change.

02-04-2011, 06:53 AM	#202
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Sorry, but I'm now going to end this "I know you can't trust me on this issue, but maybe you could be so nice as to consider..." etc. stuff and will go straight into how this game is now. You can then think yourselves whether you consider it worthwhile or not. Up to you. Residents of Mandos: Mänwe - ordinary innocent (N3 dream) Nogrod - the seer Blind Guardian - innocent whose role has been taken away Feanor of the Peredhil - ordo or cobbler Aganzir - Beren (also N1 dream) Shastanis Althreduin - Lúthien Thinlómien - ordo or cobbler Nessa Telrunya - ordinary innocent (N4 dream) Loslote - ordinary innocent (N5 dream) Mithalwen - unknown innocent In the living thread are still: Glirdan A Little Green elronds_daughter Nerwen satansaloser2005 the phantom - a cobbler (N2 dream) Boromir88 Anguirel So 8 players. 3 wolves (until either Wilwa or Legate were wolves) and at least one cobbler (tp). Unless Mith is the ranger, there are four innocents including the ranger and the hunter. Be that as it may, the most probable scenario seems to be there are 3 wolves + 1-2 cobblers (wilwa or Legate could have been cobblers but probably not wolves) vs. 3-4 goodies. Looking at how easily the wolves have handled the lynches thus far there is no reason to believe they'd fare any worse toDay with the remarkably smaller village where they are even able to take some risks toDay to meet their ends. In any case, they need only two non-wolves killed and they win, while the chances that the villagers manage to actively lynch one of them are slim indeed, in not just nonexistent. So in practise the thing that could grant us some added time is the hunter getting killed and taking one wolf down with her/him. Here: enter the cobblers who know their math. My prediction: the phantom will try to get lynched toDay to give the wolves a non-hunter to the gallows to make it safe for the wolves (and he'd love to get in here to spend even the last Night among us here - basically to brag; I presume ). And why not, if there is another cobbler, s/he might try the same... (whom, if identified correctly by the ranger would lead to the odd situation where the ranger's best bet would be to protect a cobbler...) A ranger-save could prolong the game with at least one Day as well. Although the wolves might drive for a double-lynch as well toDay. All in all, I'm not too optimistic about the general situation, but I am slightly optimistic that we can come up with decently believable chart of the roles down there among the living with the aid of which we could try to help the villagers with the lynch - if they can pull their act together that much as to get one wolf contending for the lynching for real. Without that there's no way we can help them now. EDIT: X'd with Rikae & Mith - So Legate was a cobbler! Good news for a change. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...