(Sorry about the link. It was April Fool's Day and I couldn't resist.
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Using friendlies to predict the course of a tournament is a tricky business. One never knows precisely what the teams are aiming for during their run-throughs and what they are holding back as a strategy. In addition, a team can look rather off pre-tournament and suddenly find chemistry during group play. With that said (and thus our behinds completely covered) here is the after-friendly breakdown by MESPN’s football blogging team, featuring their best and most vague guesses as to what's going on.
Aman- They showed the ability to hang tough with the rough teams and run with the quick teams. They were very sound fundamentally, though undoubtedly they will have to kick up the effort a notch once the matches mean more. A decent round of friendlies for them overall, but not statistically dominant by any means, so there shouldn’t be any overconfidence there.
Barad-Dur- The offense appears to be, for the most part, primed and ready to go, and captain Sauron says that the sub-par defensive performance was partly due to all focus being on bringing the offense together. Also, it appears that their plus one scoring margin does not accurately reflect that shot margin they enjoyed against their foes, so their prospects are likely to average out to a better level.
Barrow-Downs- They began things with a couple of ho-hum ties in which they appeared content just to get a bit of practice in, but in the last couple games they turned things up a bit, making sure that they’re ready to go full speed into the tournament. The fact that they weren’t merely dominated athletically by Gondolin and Numenor is promising, though we’ll have to see if they are able to raise their game as many levels as the other elite teams when it counts.
Beleriand- They played in a similar manner to what they will in the tournament, and demonstrated the ability to keep matches close against all foes, though they only managed to scrape out two ties. Once they up the intensity and speed for the tournament, they will perhaps be better able to translate their efforts into victories, so long as their execution remains constant.
Breeland- They played in a rather loose and relaxed manner in the friendlies, but that is the way they prefer to play anyway, so in group play we can expect more of the same from the offense, but who knows if the defense will be able to rise to the occasion. Captain Strider says that they will, and that friendlies was merely “fun-time” for the team. “We’ve been training hard and needed a break from the grind.”
Bywater- In playing some rather gifted athletic teams, Bywater impressed by staying even with them for the most part. The Hobbits in particular were much improved (this year’s Ent-draught is said to be a special new formula), and the Nazgul, Wizards, horse, and elf were as good as ever. Though they were outscored, they actually outshot their opponents, and the shots weren’t poor, and so they hope to see the numbers average out to their favor all on their own.
Dale- They experienced many problems in their friendlies. Their talent is fine, but they seem disjointed- unable to piece together their talent. How best to take advantage of Roac and Carc’s aerial abilities on defense? How to get the ball up to the forwards more efficiently? These are the questions that must be answered for Dale to find success. Most of all they have to cut down on the amount of shots they allow at their goal.
Dol Guldur- They were certainly unable to withstand the skill and speed of Gondolin in that second round, but other than that they held their own with everyone, outshooting Rohan, Gondor, and Thangorodrim. Since attack is what they plan to do, I’d say they’re ready to play in tournament form, particularly when you consider that Oropher’s save percentage has surely bottomed out. I mean, it can’t get worse, right?
Doriath- Things would be much worse for Doriath if not for Melian making twenty-one saves, which partly masked the problems their defense had. Their offensive problems were obvious, and they need to figure out a way to do something on that end- anything at all to provide some balance, even if it’s only holding onto the ball and denying their opponents.
Eithel Sirion- Overall solid work on their way to sweeping their friendlies. This team proved it has top of the line talent, but Maedhros and Fingon told their team last night that “Talent alone cannot win once everyone is playing with full effort and strategy.” So, while their fans should feel quite pleased and looking forward to making a run in this tournament, the team captains are guarding against overconfidence.
Gelion- They proved that they know how to play some smart defense, holding Barad-Dur, Rivendell, and Lorien to one goal. Now in group play we just have to wait and see if they’re able to put it in the net more with their counter going full speed. Captain Beren: “We will look to utilize the element of surprise with sudden counters, so obviously it wouldn’t do to give everyone a feel for it early on in the friendlies.”
Gondolin- In the first two games they proved that they have the athleticism and skill to run away with a game when the stakes aren’t high, and that seemed to be enough for them. In the games against Barrow-Downs and Aman they elected not to ramp up their attack to counter those more cohesive defenses, but rather focus on keeping the score low and saving energy for the groups. We’ll see if that strategy pays off, or if they lose their edge.
Gondor- All in all they played even with everyone, upping their game somewhat for the better teams and relaxing when possible. They seem to have gelled early and felt comfortable using the friendlies as a mere practice- making sure they were prepared for the skill they’d see from their competitors.
Gorgoroth- They showed some very tough defense for the majority of their matches, and the other teams in their group are going to experience some soreness win or lose. The only problem is, they’re getting carded right and left, and if they up the intensity for group play, will that mean even more cards? They’d better show some control there.
Havens- They played some good ball during the course of friendlies, and showed the ability to come out ahead in low and high-scoring affairs. Given the teams they played their defense was not exactly stellar, however it must be pointed out that they were always holding the lead and were perhaps content to let the other side take their shot at the scoreboard.
Ithilien- They kept the game at one goal difference gainst Valimar, Havens, and Wold, so nicely done there, except for the fact that losing by one goal doesn’t gain points. Though perhaps all this new team cared about was gaining confidence, and showing themselves they could compete while saving their best effort and tricks for group play. We’ll see.
Lorien- Overall decent play from Lorien, but they had better be ready to show more on offense once group play starts, though it’s true that they did what was necessary for the most part against defensive oriented teams. Galadriel was as solid as ever, so she’ll be pleased with that end. Celeborn needs more looks on the other end though if they plan to keep even against shot-happy teams. Galadriel can only save so many.
Minas Anor- They didn’t let any of their opponents run and hide on them, but the fact remains that they were statistically beaten and they need to do something different to start picking up points in the standings. Their shot selection was not good, which is probably the primary problem that needs to be addressed.
Misty Mts- They proved to be as violent as advertised, and didn’t let anyone get away from them, suffering three single goal losses and forging a tie. If other teams wear down before they do, it is then a promising style for later rounds especially. Though of course there is the problem of cards- it’s difficult to win when you’re one man short.
Mithrim- It was a nice warm-up for them, going up against several good teams and coming out ahead on the stat sheet every time. Once things get more serious, expect Turin and Beleg to turn up the heat like usual. They’ve worked together so much that they never have to worry about using friendlies to get rid of rust, and elected to rest for the most part during friendlies.
Nargothrond- Don’t jump off a cliff yet, Nargothrond fans. While they may have finished with no victories or ties, they were competitive in every contest and were even on the stat sheet at the end of friendlies. So while they certainly aren’t in a position to feel accomplished, they are poised to compete, and with an increase in efficiency can do just that.
Norbury- There’s no getting around the fact that Norbury lost their games and was beaten statistically to boot, but the die-hards aren’t panicking at this point, as Norbury was visibly playing with low energy and effort. It is quite usual for these lads to play according to the moment, rising to the occasion when necessary, particularly with late game heroics. This is a very frustrating team for a prognosticator to deal with.
Numenor- Opening with three solid wins, Numenor certainly showed that they hadn’t lost everything from last year, but their final game against Barrow-Downs wasn’t the way to end. Perhaps the critics are right when they say they’re missing the necessary flair this year. They look like they’ll have some success, but to go far they’ll have to find that edge.
Pelennor- They started off looking promising, but those last couple of ties with Bywater and Gondor were perhaps a bit lucky, as Theoden had to face more and tougher shots than his comrade on the other end of the pitch. He showed last year he’s up for a challenge, but the defense needs to protect him better.
Rivendell- Elrond was at it again, saving 15 of 17 shots he saw. But while allowing two goals in four games may look promising, the fact remains that the defense did not do a good enough job in getting the ball up into the other half of the field. And when they did, the possession game of the offense was off, and they weren’t able to secure the best shots. That needs to change if they want to advance deep.
Rohan- They had promising friendlies overall, showing that they were working well together and hanging around athletically with everyone they faced. The real downside was the way they finished, with Dol Guldur really able to be effective against their defense. They were lucky to get the tie in that one, and they’ll need to step it up in group play.
Thangorodrim- Up until Utumno no one was able to bother Thangordrim’s offense much, as they pretty well held it when they wanted and went where they wanted, and with finishers like they have naturally that led to goals. Always running out to three goal leads, there was never any reason for the defense to do their best, so we’ll have to see how they do when called upon.
Tirion- They played a rather curious round of friendlies. Successful (three wins and a tie), but not at all in the style expected. They kept their explosive offense reigned in, and instead played as if holding a three goal lead at all times, focusing on defense and holding the ball. They allowed fewer shots on their goal than any other team. Captain Feanor: “We expect to find ourselves ahead a lot, so we wanted to work on holding a lead. We’ll let loose with our offense once group play begins. No reason to waste energy now.”
Utumno- It definitely appeared as if Utumno was conserving their energy for group play, coasting along on their top-notch talent through the friendlies, content with a couple close wins and a tie. Knowing full well that Valimar could very likely be a playoff opponent, Utumno really went into a shell for that game, showing as little as possible to their foes. That’s a good strategy so long as Utumno is able to turn it on and play well full speed once it’s time.
Valimar- Their defense was suffocating and the offense was efficient, but we already knew they were savvy, experienced, and athletically capable (which translates to friendly wins). The question is, will they still be that effective once everyone is going all out against them? Will they find some fire? They never had to exert themselves, so their first major test in group play will tell much more about them.
Vinyamar- They played extremely conservatively and without any sort of life, almost as if wanting to fast forward to group play. With the talent they have and their style, it’s not completely surprising that even playing like that they managed not to lose, but not losing isn’t good enough once the tournament begins. They’d better be able to kick it up at this stage.
Wold- Despite picking up three wins and a tie, Wold shouldn’t get too comfortable. They had the fortune of playing exclusively against ineffective or apathetic offenses, and actually got out-shot by three of their four opponents. So while they were a pleasant surprise in not making errors and playing cohesively and with good spirit, they still need to improve to make a run.