[Nogrod]

Just trying to make sense of the main points in my earlier post...

The wolves had yesterDay a situation of 4 (wolves) + 2 (shifty innocent counting) lovers against 5 real innocents. Had they managed to lynch an innocent they would have been at 4 + 2 + 3 toDay (with a succesful Night-kill) and a deal with the lovers would have been remarkably easy toDay - I suppose (looking at how Saucie and Fea react).

It is doable to them even with the numbers we have toDay, eg. 3 + 2 + 4, but not so easily anymore - I hope. And the wolves should have known that.

So that makes me think the wolves wished to save McCaber - and thus the one (or two) last just had to give up her/his or their hope as s/he or they saw there was no easy way out? (as there needs to be at least one wolf among the McC-voters - and especially if Roa is a wolf too!)



That to my mind lays heavily on Roa & Sally.

(heh, if Spm and Fea are wolves it would fit nicely indeed and be the coup of the century... but I would like to hear the full rules on the lovers from the authorities before making any further suggestions along those lines.)



Of the McCaber-voters one must be a wolf - and it's possible there are two in there. All of them had good grounds to vote him as the suspicion was so largely shared by then - so none needed to pull an effort to say s/he suspected McCaber. So what other matters were there?

Loslote - as I said looks more genuine than not. One could say it was the first vote thrown and as such an easy one, but it would have been a daring deed indeed - looking at the situation where the wolves would have loved to keep their numbers intact for a possible victory on the next Day... so putting the probable / possible wagon rolling doesn't look like an early-voter wolf's strategy - especially as the lynch would be decided on just a few votes anyway and so adding to the pile that early would be really risky as things might develop ortherwise as well and the sacrifice might not have been needed.

Inzil - if you read his posts from page 10 you get an odd feeling where he kind of repeats the words others have said or were just plain accepted common views (and right in that!); that McC had surely earned a vote / no one can argue he doesn't look suspicious / gives an uneasy feeling, but also that he is: "too easy a vote". But he clearly tried to continue with his suspicion of Lottie as if looking whether that could bite in the end - and leaving him an open door not to vote for McCaber. Finally he came up with hinting on thinking Roa more suspicious, and being conscise that his vote might break the game - even if there clearly were at least some votes to come, and he only made McC one vote ahead...

Nerwen - I've mentioned her theory of the relations between McC, Roa and Sally. And it makes sense indeed; I think / hope I have managed to open the implications of it toDay a bit further. Also her vote was quite like the deciding vote which could speak good for her. My only problem with her is that she could be one of those few - if wolves with Roa - that could come up with such a strategy (note Roa's vote for her backtracked!). Well, if it is that way I will kind of humbly offer the win to them as they deserve it in that case. Or should I? The thing against her is mainly quite bad: being too on spot of things all the way, like making "too good" speculations on how the wolves would act very early on - as that was something she spent a lot in the early hours of the game. But looks to me more innocent than evil.

Brinn - Makes decent points about the lovers, suspects Roa (because of her vote-switch - which I kind of am ready to buy Roa's explanation of) and McCaber (from the earlier Day on). Voices doubts on Lottie and Nerwen (needs to see better, she says). Later "slightly concerned about Sally", defends Roa's vote for Nerwen (although says Nerwen is okay in her "book"). She goes to and fro a bit too carefully and sends McCaber to his doom as the second last voter (she probably din't cross-post as there were five minutes between her post and the one before hers) - while everything was already settled. It looks pretty hard to figure her out: her reasoning looks fine but her timing looks just evil (if trying to find unhappy McCaber -voters that is)!


We have three wolves - those making cases against someone or trying to slip through! So three cases are plain wrong (including Sally & Roa) So a consensus is no proof as the wolves would love to hide themselves within a consensus...

Looking at the possible "winning scenario" by the wolves and the reality I'd say Inzil and Brinn look the worst from the McC voters (the first made a decisive thing out of his vote when it was not so, and the other had it easy to just confirm what was inevitable) - but it doesn't make Nerwen innocent either (it was pretty decisive but still she could have realised her position and do it to make herself look better as there were scarcely good-looking alternatives).

So

Sally or Roa?

Inzil or Brinn?

There should be three within them...

I'd call Lottie and maybe also Nerwen okay for toDay...




ADD... Okay. Seeing Mira confirm the rules I'll drop my scenario of the two being wolves...