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Old 08-14-2009, 11:02 PM   #34
Mirandir
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
 
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Analysis Part 2 of 3: Hakon

For the sake of my own sanity, I'm going to skip the meaningless banter posts from the first few pages.

#20
Wants to know why morm said lynch phantom first in the admin thread.

#25
Actually attempts analysis on Day 1.

#35
Agrees with phantom's points (bear kill wolves, gifteds leave clues, psuedo-deadline)
thinks phantom is probably gifted

#132
Contemplates importance of the surveys

#137
Reeeally wants to look at surveys.

*insert lots of posts about the surveys and bantering with Rikae and a case of mistaken identity here*

Really started getting on a lot of people's nerves (especially Rikae's) with the whole survey business. Could he have been distracting from something else? Such as a slip he had made previously that I missed? Maybe.

/end mini-analysis

#170
"I still think the bear can kill at least one person we are suspicious of."
Thinks the bear will help the village

*insert morm vote for Hakon*

#178
Admits is very arrogant. What can he hope to gain from this, Mira wonders. Still thinks the village can convince the bear to do its bidding.

*insert Rikae getting really annoyed and threatening to vote Hakon out of sheer irritation*

#182
"If we figure out who the bear is, the bear will either end up lynched or a wolf will kill it. So if we figure it out then during the night phase the bear can kill a possible cobbler or wolf since the second the next day phase starts the bear will most likely by lynched or the bear will die int he night phase because a wolf kills it."
Makes what I (and apparently Nerwen) think is a completely useless statement.

#184
Still harping on the bear.

#189
Says this topic is causing an unnecessary argument and we should focus on the wolves.

*insert morm retracting vote for Hakon and locking in vote for Hakon*

*insert somehow getting back on the topic of surveys which I thought we had already dealt with*

#237
"For players I trust I think I had said Mac and Shasta. For players I distrust I think I had said Nessa and Inziladun."

#263
Thinks Rikae's optimism about lynching a wolf Day 1 is because it happened in the past 2 games.

#268
Feels people need to vote Fea or Hakon will die.

#273
Responds to Rikae's analysis of mod-choosing of the roles about trusting and not trusting certain people and the likelihood of having feared or distrusted people as the seer.
"As for the wolves one is probably a feared, one is a distrusted person and the final one a trusted person."

*insert sally not wanting to discuss surveys*

*insert Rikae saying Hakon is a safe vote, easy lynch, and probably innocent*

#278
Doesn't like morm's vote for him. Cites last game as reason why he shouldn't by lynched.

#288
Agrees with Brinn that morm voted Hakon because of Hakon's comment about morm fearing phantom.

#296
Likes the idea of voting Fea.

#303
Wants Rikae to take Inzil off her suspicious list on the grounds that he has been around and contributing unlike some other people. If he wasn't a known ordo I would suggest he was trying to protect a fellow wolf.

Boro, when the cobbler is killed is his role revealed as such or as an ordo?

#315
Suspicion list:
1. morm - nothing but a gut feeling
2. sally - might be cobbler
3. phantom - "He actually seems very innocent it just that he is very active and suggesting good ideas. In in my opinion that is the best way to hide being a wolf."
4. Rikae - might be bear

#322
Thinks the bear is someone who talked about the bear a lot, such as Rikae.

#350
Would like to know why Pitchwife finds Nessa the most cunning of the newbies.

#387
Doesn't like autumne's wagon-vote for him.

#394
Thinks Shasta makes a good point about Pitchwife

#463
Votes Pitchwife to save himself.

~~~~~

The one solid connection I've found between the two dead that I've analyzed so far is that Rikae had a lot of interaction with both of them. This could be nothing or she could be evil. Hakon thought she might be the bear, but I seriously doubt that a Rikaebear would make such an obvious kill choice. The bear is probably someone who was annoyed by Hakon and his speculation about the bear role (or in general).
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Last edited by Mirandir; 08-14-2009 at 11:02 PM. Reason: x-ed since my last post
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