[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Since three ducks are dead, and the game has not yet ended, we must be facing either 2 or 5 ducks right now:
Day1: 1 or 2
Day2: 2 or 3
Day3: 3 or 5 minus 1 resp. 2
Day4: 5 or 8 minus 3

Our only chance of winning is if we're dealing with 5 ducks. If we're dealing with 2, then we're doomed, unless we can pull a magic "get rid of two on one day" thing again. Tomorrow, we would have either 5 ducks, minus 1, possibly! If we have 5 ducks now, we will have 10 tomorrow! However, since, if I didn't miscount, we are 12 right now, after lynch and kill, there will be exactly 10 villagers left, all of which are ducks, and therefore, all of which will have won.

[...arrest this man, he talks in math...]

Don't panic– I just thought it was part of his bluff, meaning the number of ducks (or non-ducks, because he was acting evil by then) he would kill each time he was voted.

EDIT: X'd since self.