I'm not going to make a proper analysis as it would take ages and I don't feel it would be of that much use. I'll just post here the things that caught my attention:
Nogrod suspected
Gollum and
Gwath, just a little, for dropping in and voting at the last minute on the previous Day. Ended up suspecting
Gollum more than
Gwath.
Suspected
Kath.
(Half-jokingly) suspected
Lommy and
Legate of loverism.
Nogrod thought innocent
Mith,
Brinn and
Gaunt.
I don't think
Nogrod's suspicions look seerish. He's too uncertain about them and/or has too many reservations. His list of innocents then... maybe? Maybe something in the way he talked about
Brinn and
Mith and
Gaunt made the wolves think he had dreamt of two of them? I think he at least supported
Mith and
Brinn's innocence without much reservations... Hm....
Others' attitudes to Nogrod
Gwathagor considered him innocentish.
Rune was unsure about him but inclined to consider him innocent.
Legate didn't find him particularly suspicious.
Gollum suspected him.
Brinn wasn't enthusiastic to lynch him.
Gaunt argued with him and suspected him a little.
Kath found him suspicious but retracted much of that later when
Nogrod corrected her.
Lommy found him innocentish.
The rest did not talk about him yesterDay.
I don't know what to make of this. It really doesn't look like anyone would have had especially many or few reasons to kill him. Except that
Brinn and
Rune and if there were other people who did so too would be rather two-faced if they were wolves: say they don't want to lynch
Nog and then go and kill him. I'm not saying it's impossible or even improbable, but it's rather nasty.
Nogrod tried to interpret the rules a few times. Maybe the wolves know more than we do and killed him because he was getting too close to the truth about the rules? (Like, maybe I and
Legate really are lovers and were scared he would convince others that his so very serious theory is correct?
) He didn't have any very clear theories though, except the possibility of lovers, which I myself consider unlikely. I think we would know if this was a lover game and I think no mod would start the game with just two baddies who both die and lose the game if one of them dies. Looks a little too unfair.
Okay, in conclusion: I think
Nogrod was killed to a) remove a smart guy, b) to confuse us or c) because he was suspected of seerism and at least two of
Mith,
Brinn and
Gaunt are innocent.
edit: xed with Golly