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Old 01-20-2008, 08:05 PM   #9
Brinniel
Reflection of Darkness
 
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Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
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Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Hello, I'm here.

First off, I just want to take a quick look at these previous Days. A lot has happened, and I think it's important to examine them and put out some thoughts here and now.

Day 0.1

This was certainly an interesting Day to watch, though quite honestly I cannot get any clear suspicions from that Day simply because all three seem rather suspicious. The case against Legate seems to be based off mainly Day 0, which I've already stated I think isn't a particularly helpful Day since odd behaviour isn't necessarily wolfish behaviour, if you get my meaning. Of course since they were the first three, they didn't really have a choice but to use Day 0 for discussion, which is unfortunate.

Menel made the daring move of voting first. His suspicions against Legate came pretty early and he seemed fairly confident of his guilt considering there wasn't a whole lot to go on. Could be a Menel Wolf who decided early on that Legate was a bigger threat than Valier and it'd be safer to eliminate him.

Valier was much more undecided and unsure when she made her vote. Of course since it was the deciding vote, it'd only be smart as a wolf to act unsure of who to vote for. Because casting the deciding vote too hastily would look wolfish.

I think it's more likely that one of the former two is a wolf. Because on the very first lynch Day especially, it is really easy for a wolf to manipulate the voting. Anyways, Legate didn't seem very wolfish at all throughout the Day. The only thing that makes me question him is his statement about what his role may be or is not after he knew he was dead. It does give off the appearance of being helpful, but I could also see a Legate Wolf making one last desperate attempt to throw us off for the next several Days before his role is known.

Like I said, all three seem fairly suspicious, but if I had to pick the most suspicious, it'd be Menel. Because for a Menel Wolf, Legate probably would be a greater threat, plus Legate had posted more frequently on Day 0, making it easier to create a case against him.

Day 0.2

I think it's unfortunate Roa had to die merely from bad luck. Random lynches certainly are no fun. But I don't think McCaber's no vote necessarily makes him wolfish. It's more likely he didn't vote due to a RL error. After all, if he were a wolf, it'd simply be smarter for him to vote. At that point, he was completely safe from lynching and I think voting would be the less suspicious move than simply leaving it to the randomizer. But I would really like to hear an explanation come from McCaber himself come Day 1.

Roa certainly was acting very careful. But someone later on (I can't remember who) mentioned her behaviour could've been due to giftedness and I would agree. Roa can be a very dangerous player, but right now I'm getting more innocentish vibes from her than anything.

Out of the three, I think Naria is most likely the wolf. She is defensive, which in one way is understandable since she had already received a vote. But that vote came because Naria had been MIA up to that point, and since Roa thought McCaber more likely innocent, what was she supposed to do? She wasn't sure Naria would show up at all; if she had voted McCaber, he would probably vote her and if Naria didn't show, the lynch would be randomized. So, Roa's vote made perfect sense to me. Naria's response is simply overly aggressive and sarcastic. She's desparate, and with one vote already I can understand- but she just seems to be trying too hard.

Day 0.3

Well, very little was said this Day. Shasta was a very easy lynch, with the said excuse that "he contributes less." But I think a Shasta that contributes less is most likely an innocent Shasta, since I've noticed he contributes more when he has a role other than an ordinary innocent.

From previous games, I already know Aganzir can be a dangerous wolf, but I've never played with Ka, so I know nothing about her. However, I feel almost postive that the wolf is among these two and not Shasta. Aganzir stands out a little more in my mind because she was the first to state she'd rather vote Shasta because Ka contributes, and that reasoning just doesn't seem very good to me.

Day 0.4

Another interesting Day. It was certainly entertaining to watch Nogrod and Lommy bump heads with each other.

I must say, I certainly was very sad to see Might's self-vote. But I think everything he said was sincere and if he were actually a wolf, I don't think he would've let his fellow mates down and simply quit like that. Which leaves Nogrod and Lommy...

Nogrod was a bit too aggressive for my liking...but I'm not sure if that aggressiveness is actually wolfish behaviour. I'm a bit more worried about Lommy and her reaction to Might's self-vote. I quite honestly cannot see how she would still seriously consider the possibility of him being a wolf after his self-vote (like I said, I don't think a wolf give up so easily because it would only be hurting his teammates). But what I even like less, is how she accuses Nogrod of wolfishness because he thinks Might is innocent. And of course Nogrod's going to think Lommy's guilty if he thinks Might is innocent because surely he wouldn't accuse himself. I actually felt okay about Lommy throughout most of the Day, but her last couple posts (particularly the last one) make me uneasy about her. I almost get the feeling that she's nervous about something...maybe because Nogrod has her pegged...

Day 0.5

It's a shame Gil didn't show up at all. Sally and Kath's vote for him makes sense. He was a no-show and it'd be silly to vote for each other and risk a randomized lynch (even if one had voted Gil and the other for someone else, it'd look way too suspicious).

Not much was said, and there was a bit a banter. Sally was a little odd (not in a wolfish way, but in general) and I don't really have anything to say about Kath. I think if Gil were a wolf, he would've gone to greater efforts to read the guidlines and return on his designated Day. So I do think either Kath or Sally is our wolf; I just have no idea which one it is.

---------------

Okay, so that was a long post, but I just wanted to get the ball rolling. We need something to discuss at first, and as I said before, I think it's important to put out some clear thoughts about Days 0.1-0.5. I do not want to use Day 0 as the basis of my vote; I think it'd be better and more accurate to base my suspicions on whatever will be said toDay. But that's just my opinion.

Anyways, it's good to see Zali has shown up. And hopefully Groin will appear soon as well. I don't think any of us have played with each other before which means we're all new to each other....so I think this should be an interesting Day.
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