We have something of a dilemma here. To lynch Roa or not to lynch Roa. Let's have a look at the possibilities:
1) We lynch Roa and find that she is the Cobbler, thus proving Rikae to be the Seer and Nogrod an innocent.
2) We lynch Roa and find that she is innocent, thus proving Rikae is not the Seer and Nogrod is unknown.
3) We do not lynch Roa and Rikae is killed toNight and found to be either the Seer (proving Roa's guilt) or not (disproving Roa's guilt).
4) We do not lynch Roa and Rikae is not killed toNight, meaning that nothing is certain and we spend the whole of tomorrow arguing the same point.
Now, for the most part I am inclined to think that option 1 is the best. However, on a re-read through just now I noticed something TGWBS said:
Quote:
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although I thought the Seer would see the Cobbler as an innocent
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This was something I had forgotten. I know this was the case in previous games but it is possible that Mac had changed the rule here.
With the 'lynch Roa' options we do at least get some facts. We'll know if Rikae is the Seer or not. The problem there is that the second we have confirmation the wolves will kill her anyway. However, if we do not lynch Roa the wolves may well leave Rikae alive toNight in order that the village stays stuck on determining the roles of those two tomorrow. There are enough villagers around that it is more likely Rikae will dream of an ordinary villager than of a wolf so the danger is not that great for them.
Basically, lynching Roa, whatever she turns out to be, looks to be the best option for the good of the village. The only way that changes is if she is Gifted. We need to know whether Rikae is the real Seer or not or we're going to be relying on false information for the rest of the game. We could lynch Nogrod in an attempt to prove or disprove her claim, but there are many innocents and only one Cobbler.
So, unless Roa suddenly reveals herself as Gifted my vote will stand as:
++ROA
EDIT: Apologies, had an erroneous possibility.