[Lalaith]

Nilp Fowlagund has been successfully lynched.
Anguirel: It's excellent, of course, but I may be under suspicion for defending Nilp...on the plus side though, I think that means I'm unlikely to be attacked tonight...
Lal: what about Spawn? I do remember her as a wolf once, getting found out on the first day, maybe wolfishness sits uneasily with her. I'm surprised about her asking about wolf PMs. She normally knows the rules better than anyone, and she herself has found it suspicious when others ask/bring up such things. (I remember in the last game, I reminded everyone about wolves PMing in the day, she and elempi were seers and in the post-game PMs published, she flagged it as a suspicious comment.)
Do you think Diamond would make those two wolves together?
Some more thoughts:
Mith - very defensive. But then again, she can be.. We should watch her closely.
Saucie - just making too much damn sense. Again, watch him like the hawk you are.
Cailin - she thinks highly of us which is obviously gratifying but we mustn't let flattery lull us into a false sense of security.
Jenny makes sense, I've not played with her before but she feels reasonably innocent to me. You've had more experience here...(NB, at this point Jenny was still innocent!)
Morm, Kath - I know we were suspicious of them at first and by the end of the Day, I was still wondering about them. Did you see Morm's comment about his grandmother - ie "i am little red riding hood, not the wolf"?
Roa and Nogrod - I find their rowing difficult to deal with but I realise that doesn't actually make them guilty.
Valier, Sleepy, Glirdan, Elu and Lote haven’t been especially helpful today and one of them may well be a duck. Not Lote, actually, I refuse to believe a young newbie would be so cunning as to vote for a fellow duck straight out like that. (of course, big sis wilwa might be advising her)
Valier of course made the decisive vote against Nilp which should clear her, but she's probably smart enough to do that even as a Duck.
Those who didn't vote - why? Nogrod's alarm probably didn't go off, maybe spawn also thought she'd wake up early and didn't. Elu and Glirdan were probably just preoccupied.
Some thoughts about the Hunter role: I found it difficult, when I was the Hunter, to reconcile my wish to survive with the fact that if I didn't die my gift was useless. Also, I was terrified of killing the wrong person.
How do you plan to play it? Will you try to survive regardless or will you try to die at some point?
Anguirel: This is the fun bit. We think like wereducks, and anticipate their actions, without the moral compromise and stress of having to be them!
I'll approach your suspects and points one by one :
I don't yet particularly distrust spawn yet. A little hypocrisy perhaps in her question about PMs, as you say, but I feel there's more idleness than intrigue, which I can sympathise with.
On the other hand, it seems to me that Mith rather over-eggs the anti-spawn case over the PMs question. I also agree with Kath's worry about her statistical stuff, as you know. It seems unlike her. I strongly suspect Mith and may Hunt her tonight.
Saucie-well, I agree with you. I was contorting my self to find a proper weak spot. I can't find any grounds for suspicion yet really.
I still slightly suspect Cailin although not strongly. Still I no longer take her first words as a threat.
I think Jenny might be the Owl. I can't see many other explanations for her low profile.
Kath is no longer worrying me due to her later contributions. And though Jenny picked up the Little Red Riding Hood aspect I think it's a stretch too far...morm doesn't really work like that. Remember his odd request to hire protection at the beginning though? And his flawed attempt to make us wary of Owl-hoots? Hmm.
I genuinely do suspect Roa a bit-because of the rapidity with which she moved from defending to attacking Nogrod fiercely on the Owl point. The likelihood is though that they're both innocent.
Not much to say about the quiet ones, except that when we were wolves together, I sort of tutored Valier in the paths of unrighteousness, and I pulled the same trick she might have done today-needlessly killing our fellow wolf to strengthen my cred. So I wouldn't be that surprised if she's taken up that habit.
Now, my approach to the Hawk role-I can explain best by quoting Hector. "No man shall send me down to Hades before my time." I intend to die, but in the late stages if possible when I have a much more certain bead on a wolf than I do now.

This means I may ask you to guard me sometimes, but not, I think, tonight, as I don't see there's a real likelihood I'll be attacked. You may perhaps think differently, but I think my defence of Nilp might prove fortunate.

Any Owl-hinters, do you think? I think morm might be one, but I doubt his veracity seriously. Still, I think you should either take him at his word and guard him, or guard one of the most high-profile players, like Saucie, who might be at risk if Mith is a wolf, having also contributed to Nilp's fall.
What do you think?
Lalaith: One other thing - I think Ducks will be much less concerned about finding the seer than they normally are. So I think protecting helpful players, rather than possible seers, is the way forward for me.
Lal: another question - why, if Mith is a wolf, would she try to get a high-profile player like spawn lynched on the first day? If she's worried about spawn, she could kill her at night, couldn't she? It's highly unlikely that a spawn bandwaggon would succeed on the first day...much better to go for a low-level ord.
Anguirel: Because it's what she'd do were she not a duck? Because spawn is an unusually suspicious-looking candidate at the moment? The two combine to in principle make it look like both a brave and a sensible vote-but not so sensible that spawn will actually be pushed into the lead.
I don't think Mith was expecting or hoping spawn would be lynched-a reliable wolf tactic is to strongly attack someone who's well defended and will probably not be lynched-they then sidestep all blame for deaths that follow.
I agree with you about Owls...not so much that the ducks won't try to get them, but that, bar chance, they won't be able to get them, due to the reticence of the Owl on hints...so that means that they are likely to attack whoever they think is being most helpful, or has the best potential, to the village.
This is where you have to ask: as a duck, who would you go for? You can even add: as a duck with Nilp, your fellow duck, recently outed, who would you go for? And who would you think the Nightingale would guard? Where would you feint? etc.
Think about it and try and sketch out a picture, and I'll do the same. You can of course insist on guarding me if that truly seems the best choice. Maybe it's cowardice as the Night draws on, but I'm starting to think about it myself!
Oh, and were you the Hunter, would you go for Spawn? Saucie? Mith? Cailin?
Mith and Roa are leading for me at the moment I think...arrrgh...
Lalaith: You've put me to rights about the Mith/spawn thing, thank you. (at least for now)
So, who voted for Nilp?
Other than le canard soi-meme, it was Valier, Lote and Sleepy. If any of those are the Owl, I'm a Dutchman.
You know, I'm damn glad I didn't vote for Nilp, as I nearly did, or they might have had me out for Minerva's familiar. As it is, I think I might be all right.
I do think protecting you tonight would get us both off the hook. It's a good option for first night, because neither of us really have that much to go on. Of course might regret it tomorrow if you look to be in more danger. Oh, I don't know. Maybe we should go back to plan A, where you hunt Mith/Roa and I protect, I think, Saucie.
You decide.
Anguirel: Okay. Cowardice has won, and I'd rather strike my Pyrrhic blow tomorrow night than tonight. I just don't have enough information yet.
Please protect me after all-which makes my target academic. I'll hunt morm tonight just for the principle of the thing...
I don't think I'll be attacked actually, but a successful save might actually be counter-productive at this stage. The ducks had better not attack you though...but there's nothing we can do if they decide to. There's no one more helpless than a Ranger/Nightingale...
Maybe get yourself into a more suspicious position tomorrow? Pick a fight? We really don't want them cottoning on to you.
Lalaith: The only thing I'd worry about re being eaten by Ducks is if I accidentally said the right thing and made myself look Owlish. (as I nearly did with Nilp) Otherwise, there's enough heavyweights around, for Ducks not to bother themselves overmuch with little me...on the other hand, Rangers do not have a good survival rate. Well, lets see what tomorrow brings. You're right, though, being in a Good Conspiracy is fun, rather like the French Resistance...