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Old 05-14-2020, 04:26 PM   #1281
Eönwë
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
Regardless of whether Boro is telling the truth or not, I think it's likely the QT'ed innocents believed him to be the Seer. We could test that theory with having them follow Boro's vote again today, if we thought it mattered.
Wow, that's giving Boro a lot of power, isn't it? To quote Pitch: *ping*
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:26 PM   #1282
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eönwë View Post
But this makes me feel a lot better about Lommy and Brinn now.
As Lottie pointed out, two of the most pivotal votes for Inzil yesterday. Neat.

Lommy I have felt better about here in the last couple minutes she's been yelling at Boro.

Brinn? Hmm.
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:31 PM   #1283
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Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
...why Brinn? Sorry, didn't follow that one.
I mean if Boro is a wolf. Day 1 was between (as far as the wolves knew) 2 innocents.

Lommy's reaction makes me feel better about her regardless.
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:31 PM   #1284
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
If any one of Ka, Rune, or Eonwe isn't a wolf, it's got to be Shasta, Boro, or Brinn - but I think there are a minimum of two wolves in that Ka/Rune/Eonwe threesome, and I really think we need to lynch one of them toDay.
So if it isn't Boro, and it isn't Rune, then that leaves Shasta (who I don't really suspect) or Brinn, who I don't have a great read on. And...oh, wait...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eönwë View Post
But this makes me feel a lot better about Lommy and Brinn now.
So maybe a Ka/Eonwe/Brinn pack makes a lot of sense after all.
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:32 PM   #1285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eönwë View Post
I mean if Boro is a wolf. Day 1 was between (as far as the wolves knew) 2 innocents.

Lommy's reaction makes me feel better about her regardless.
And how do YOU know that?
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:35 PM   #1286
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Updated full vote list

Bold is evil, italics is good.

Day 1
Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
Boro -> Pitchwife
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel (2)
Kath -> G55 (2)
Shasta -> Pitchwife (2)
Kitanna -> Pitchwife (3)
Inzil -> G55 (3)
Lottie -> G55 (4)
Greenie -> Macalaure
THE Ka -> Brinniel (3)
Eönwë -> Urwen
Rune -> Brinniel (4)
Lommy -> G55 (5)
Huines -> G55 (6)
Legate -> Brinn (5)
Macalaure -> Brinn (6)
Brinniel -> G55 (7)
---G55 Fake Ranger Reveal---
Sally -> Brinn (7)

Reminder: while G55 is evil, because she's the Cobbler she and the Infectors didn't know who each other were at this point.



Day 2
Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4
Sally -> Macalaure 4
Inzil -> Macalaure 5
Lalaith -> Huinesoron 5
Brinn -> Huinesoron 6
Boro -> Mac 6
Eönwë -> Huinesoron 7
Shasta -> Mac


Day 3
THE Ka -> Sally
QT -> Brinn
Eönwë -> Sally 2
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Sally 3
Lommy -> Sally 4
--- Sally Hunter reveal---
Inzil -> Brinn 2
Lottie -> Sally 5
Lalaith -> Sally 6
Legate -> Sally 7
Shasta -> Sally 8
Brinn -> Sally 9
Rune -> Inzil 2
Boro -> Sally 10
Pitch -> Eonwe



Day 4
Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil
The Ka -> Lhuna 2
Pitchwife -> Eönwë 2
Lalaith -> Lhuna 3
Lommy -> Lhuna 4
Rune -> Eönwë 3
Kath -> Lhuna 5
Shasta -> Lhuna 6
Boro -> Eönwë 4
Brinn -> Lhuna 7



Day 5
QT -> Rune
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Inzil 2
Shasta -> THE Ka
Eönwë -> Rune 2
Boro -> Eönwë
Inzil -> Rune 3
Lommy -> Inzil 3
Lottie -> Rune 4
Brinn -> Inzil 4
Rune -> Inzil 5
Pitch -> Inzil 6
THE Ka -> Shasta
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:36 PM   #1287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eönwë
But this makes me feel a lot better about Lommy and Brinn now.
??? Why??

The logical conclusion is the opposite, unless Boro is a wolf himself. And if he was a wolf, I don't think it would say much?

If Boro is an innocent and he didn't get killed for a seerish post that listed me and Brinn as the most innocent and you as the most suspicious, then I would think it rather points at either me or Brinn being guilty or you being innocent?

I know I'm innocent and I'm pretty suspicious of you, so this leads me to suspecting Brinn. (Whom I thought was most likely innocent but tbh I might have been a little muddled up by operating on the assumption she was "seer!Boro"'s other known innocent. )

But I'm really in a bit of a loop here because logic says I should reconsider Eönwë but then again he made that slip which implied he knows me and Brinn are innocent and sdfghjklkjh. Okay. One of Eönwë and Brinn surely is a wolf?? Unless plot twist it's Boro after all?

Guess what guys? I'm going to sleep.......


edit: xed with 1283 and onwards
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:36 PM   #1288
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Also, if Borowolf suspected the Cuties were just echoing his vote, that means he could have single handedly steered the entire living thread every single Day. If he was actually a wolf, why would he EVER give up that kind of power???
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:36 PM   #1289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
And how do YOU know that?
As in, if Boro was a wolf, that was the slip that Lalaith picked up on. See her first post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalaith View Post
Quote:
Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.
How do you know that's what happened on Day 1?
Hmm?
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:37 PM   #1290
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
Also, if Borowolf suspected the Cuties were just echoing his vote, that means he could have single handedly steered the entire living thread every single Day. If he was actually a wolf, why would he EVER give up that kind of power???
Presumably he thought he would be better served by 'coming out' about why he was pretending to be the seer.
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:38 PM   #1291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eönwë View Post
Presumably he thought he would be better served by 'coming out' about why he was pretending to be the seer.
Why pretend to be the Seer at all? If he thinks the Cuties are echoing him, and he proved yesterDay that we will absolutely follow the Cuties, then he could have just tested that quietly. He didn't need to draw attention to himself or the situation, he could have just continued to quietly steer the village.
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:40 PM   #1292
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DID EÖNWË AGAIN SLIP HE KNOWS BRINN IS INNOCENT?

(or has he given up and is fabricating wolf slips to make packmate Brinn look good at this point??)


edit: xed, okay I see not. Yeah I need to sleep.
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:41 PM   #1293
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
Why pretend to be the Seer at all? If he thinks the Cuties are echoing him, and he proved yesterDay that we will absolutely follow the Cuties, then he could have just tested that quietly. He didn't need to draw attention to himself or the situation, he could have just continued to quietly steer the village.
As I said, I think it was first a slip, then Lalaith picked up on it and got killed, then he semi-revealed to quell discussion on the topic. But toDay he realised that it was too suspicious to continue to pretend to be the seer and still be alive.
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:43 PM   #1294
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
DID EÖNWË AGAIN SLIP HE KNOWS BRINN IS INNOCENT?

(or has he given up and is fabricating wolf slips to make packmate Brinn look good at this point??)


edit: xed
Again, if Boro is a wolf, then Day 1 was between two innocents.
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:44 PM   #1295
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
But I'm really in a bit of a loop here because logic says I should reconsider Eönwë but then again he made that slip which implied he knows me and Brinn are innocent and sdfghjklkjh. Okay. One of Eönwë and Brinn surely is a wolf?? Unless plot twist it's Boro after all?
But if it was a slip, which two would I be talking about? Because there are three people that are implied innocent by this - you, Zil, and Brinn. Zil has been confirmed.
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:45 PM   #1296
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Parting thought: we certainly need a new communication mode with the QTs toDay. Prudent subject of discussion would be: what.

I'm a little bummed out that we were basically following Boro's suggestions, not the dead innocents'.

But it did get us Lhuna.

Which would be the most evil wolf-on-wolf in history btw if Boro is a wolf, because seriously what better way to gain our trust.

But yeah. Perhaps Borowolf would rather have toned down the seer hints (so that he wouldn't eventually have to explain to his fellow villagers like he did toDay) and concentrated on excercising his power over the QT.

Anyway wolf or innocent, I think we can all agree Boro is absolutely eeevil.
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:59 PM   #1297
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Thoughts as I return to work for a bit:

Whether or not the Zil-lynch yesterDay was orchestrated by the wolves (will need to look into who got it to happen), what was shown is that the village can be pushed to ignore the innocent QT's vote. This is bad.

For this reason, even if Rune is innocent, there is probably at least one wolf in the Zil-waggon (if Rune is innocent, possibly early on, if not, potentially also later), in the posts arguing to ignore/mistrust the QT vote, and/or of pushing for B]Zil[/B] as a vote-candidate. I suspect more than one, but off the top of my head I don't know who is in these categories. I think it is a top priority of the wolves to discredit an innocent-led QT that has led to the quarantining of one of their fellows.
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Old 05-14-2020, 05:09 PM   #1298
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T

I feel like needing to hide from Lommy for a moment.

Anyway I feel like you're someone I have a pretty good read on as I said from the start your flip-flopping reads like an actual argument with yourself I can imagine when you're innocent. When you're a wolf it's like since you already know guilt or innocent you force yourself to come up with a reason to flip-flop. I don't know other way to say it other than it doesn't look natural. A few times I reconsidered. The main one your first post after sally's lynch I said wasn't particularly helpful. But at that point I was more sure Lhuna's clean voting record was suspicious. Then when she turned out wolf I thought I'd just go for it and give the plan a try for the day.

In the end seer is still alive, so maybe it didn't work as I had intended, but to some extent it did. Since it didn't work fully as I intended, I thought there's no point in trying to do it again today.

Especially considering a fickle group that waits too long to get the QT vote before the action starts. Unless Rune's actually is a wolf then maybe it did more harm than good? I don't know, after still being alive I just didn't want the QT thinking I was the seer because we're getting down to the nitty-gritty where odd plans aren't worth the risk. And it was better to get it out now instead of waiting for the QT vote.

In an effort to move on...I stand by this from yesterday:

Quote:
For what it's worth, I would say stay the course, if you weren't going to vote for Rune before the QT vote came out and are only considering him for those reasons than better to go with Ka.
Which I understood Lottie's response THE Ka didn't seem like a viable option at that point yesterday. She should be one today.

I'm rather torn with Eonwe at the moment. He was the one I was pegging down as a wolf, and the fact that my plan to be night-killed didn't happen makes me think that he's not. I jumped on him for his defense of his vote for Rune, because of the QT vote. Same reasons I'm suspicious of The Ka, her vote for Lhuna was a "well the QT says so."

Eonwe replied he'd been suspicious of Rune for days:

Quote:
I've been suspicious of Rune since the beginning (early on I put it down to his bias against me, but he's done nothing to make me feel better about him), and there's a very very low probability of the QT trying to deceive us, unlike 3 players here.
Which didn't make sense, at least Rune wasn't one of his primary suspects. He always seemed to be on me, Zil, Lommy and sally.

The single funniest comment of the game was when Mac said something about apparently Eonwe could be convinced to lynch half the village. Which I thought was accurate, so maybe technically you can claim you were suspicious of Rune since the beginning. But he didn't seem like one of your primary considerations until the QT vote yesterday.

Edit: cross posting with a bunch
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Old 05-14-2020, 09:29 PM   #1299
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Geez people, you're making my head spin!

Boro - I just don't know what to think of him and all of this. Part of me wants to think him innocent, but honestly, it could go either way.

I'm rather bummed over the results of Inzil's lynching. I really thought I was right about him and now knowing his innocence has made me realize I need to rethink some people. One of which being Kath, who I felt okay about mainly due to the fact that I agreed with her suspicions and now I'm not so sure.

Lottie I'm also less sure about. I've initially thought her more innocent due to her Hui vote and the fact that she voted Sally when she could possibly be hunting her. But I can't discount the possibility Lottie could be a very bold wolf. Anyway, I think it less likely that she and Boro are both wolves.
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Old 05-14-2020, 10:09 PM   #1300
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eonwe
there is probably at least one wolf in the Zil-waggon (if Rune is innocent, possibly early on, if not, potentially also later), in the posts arguing to ignore/mistrust the QT vote, and/or of pushing for B]Zil[/B] as a vote-candidate. I suspect more than one, but off the top of my head I don't know who is in these categories. I think it is a top priority of the wolves to discredit an innocent-led QT that has led to the quarantining of one of their fellows.
I was reading through Day 5 again and got to wondering about Zil-voters and their opinion/interaction with the QT vote that Day or their stance on the QT vote in general. Apologies in advance (especially to you Rune, I know you're not too fond of them), but this is going to be a long list post due to the volume of content from yesterDay.
Note: It does not include quotes or references directly from any day prior to Day 5. This list took me nearly two hours to compile and fix for formatting, so if you want anything earlier you'll have to go do your own data hunting, sorry.

Zil-votes Day 5:

Kath – Inzil
Greenie – Inzil
Lommy – Inzil
Brinn – Inzil
Rune – Inzil
*Pitch – Inzil

*Selected by wolves, Night 6. Villager, Non-gifted.

Previously suspected to point of voting on prior Days: Brinn, Rune.

Opinion of QT vote Day 5: Ignore/Mistrust or Follow:

Kath -
#1097:
Quote:
And the QT made an excellent showing of themselves, too. YesterDay, quite a few people put down their planned vote options long before the QT vote had to be made. Is that something we want to do again toDay on the assumption that it did help?
(Ref. to Lhuna QT vote Day)
Quote:
Lal's push for the village listening to the QT I think again would have made the wolves suspect she might be the Seer. There goes the QT literally naming a wolf an no one seems to listen, so she brings it to the forefront.
#1103: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. Only references Eonwe’s pattern of voting earlier since Hui-vote Day.
#1109: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. Only apologises for forgetting to put ‘fake vote’ choices in previous post and resumes doing so.
#1120: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. No indirect mention of QT.
#1149: Vote-post. Mention of QT:
Quote:
I was holding on to see what the QT vote would be, but I do have to go, and I don't have time to look into the possible reasoning behind this, so I will go with what I said earlier.
(Ref. to post #1120 mention of Lhuna and Zil)
- No further posts for Day 5 -

Greenie -
#1057: Some mention of previous QT vote in regard to timing from other players of personal votes. Makes note of when players have voted before or after QT vote, specifically in Pitch and Rune analysis.
#1086:
Quote:
The Lhunawagon came about pretty quickly and only after the QT vote; though a few of us had said they found her somewhat suspicious, it looked like most people were pretty surprised by the QT picking her. So yes, I'd expect to see some wolf-on-wolf among the Lhuna voters, but not an orchestrated plot to sacrifice her.
(Ref. to selected Boro quote about Lhuna and possible wolf-on-wolf vote plan)
#1092:
Quote:
Lommy makes a good point about giving the QT some warning about what we're up to.
Gives ‘fake-vote’ prior to QT vote deadline.
#1169: Vote-post. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
- No further posts for Day 5 -

Lommy –
#1053: In reply to quote from Zil:
Quote:
it is true that he can talk about his live fellows in an incriminating way and that way the qt innocents have access to evidence we don't. Something to consider... (Not that I'm saying we should always follow the qt vote, even though that would make this game easier.
#1063: Lalaitholysis post. No direct mention of QT outside of selected quoted material in regard to Lalaith.
#1066: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1067:
Quote:
there's still a nice innocent majority there (or, nice and nice, not sure dead innocents outnumbering dead baddies is a good thing ) but there's three baddies and Lhuna is the tie breaker, so if the innocents disagree with each other and mess it up, there's a chance the baddies can wrestle control of the QT vote.
This actually possibly more as a reminder to the QT than ourselves.
#1068:
Quote:
if we want to orchestrate some communication deal with them, or if we want to agree to vote BEFORE them, then now would be the time to discuss that.
#1089:
Quote:
We have the most data so far, we could coordinate something with the qt, but nothing is happening.
Statement followed by suspicion list and explanation of each selection.
#1091:
Quote:
I think the least we can do is to give the qt pointers about how we might want to lynch toDay, like Boro just did. Since it looks pretty quiet here, I have spent some time on the Night kill and making a list (including a quick look at yesterDay's votes while making that), I might retreat for a little while. On Monday I spent most of my waking hours playing werewolf (did I mention I'm temporarily unemployed until June 2nd? ), and to be honest, I don't have the stamina to repeat that today. So, I'll be off for a few hours at least, and I'll make a mock vote if it helps the qt
Followed by ‘fake-vote’ prior to QT vote deadline.
#1101:
Quote:
The whole whether to follow the QT's choice was really a whole another kettle of fish. If the QT had voted for someone I did not suspect very much, I wouldn't have followed their vote. But since they voted for someone I did suspect, it was one factor that made me pick her over my other suspects (some of whom I suspected more). I'm considering acting with the same logic toDay, by the way. It seems prudent to me to let their choice affect but not dictate your own voting.
(Ref. to Kath about Lhuna-vote)
#1102: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1112:
Quote:
Also it's worth bearing in mind that the qt is full of innocents who are freer to think outside the box than living innocents because 1) their time/energy is not swallowed up by having to defend themselves from accusations and 2) they can't fall into the trap of kneejerk suspicion against people who suspect them unlike we do (nor can they conversely discard their valid suspicions just because they might be kneejerk). Of course, they might also be paying less attention to the game than us living ones because understandably they have less to do. But still. I do think they have certain advantages in wolf spotting if they're willing to use them.
#1122:
Quote:
I would really REALLY like to know what's going on in the QT. But I should probably be careful what I wish for...
#1125:
Quote:
I was under the impression that the ones who join the QT are allowed to read back what has been said there before? In that case they would all know as much.
#1132: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1140: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
-POST QT Day Vote-
#1152: Mentions surprise at Rune QT vote. Plans to go back and check Rune’s posts for possible answers.
#1155: Reply to Pitch about Lhuna deciding QT vote. Sides with quite unlikely, only if innocents in QT made a mess.
#1160: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1194:
Quote:
Also I don't "distrust" the QT vote. I just don't think they know so much more than us that we should follow them without a question, or that their vote couldn't be tampered with by the evil side (even though that's quite unlikely). There's a difference.
(Ref. to QT Rune-vote)
#1196: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1198:
Quote:
How do you determine which players are "opposite" choices in a way that you can manipulate with? And why would any ordo trust a known hunter/ranger's word any more than a known fellow ordo's?
(Ref. to Ka (mine) speculation on innocents trusting gifted decisions in QT)
#1202: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. Only analysis of Rune past posts.
#1205: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1209: Vote-post.
Quote:
And I'm not really convinced about lynching Rune toDay. It doesn't really help that basically the two people who I suspect the most have been the ones to jump on the QT vote.
#1218, 1228, 1230,1238: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
- No further posts Day 5 -

Brinn -
#1056: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1076:
Quote:
It seems the entire reasoning she voted Lhuna was because she trusted the QT vote. Okay, I don't recall her having any opinions of Lhuna beforehand. This could potentially be a wolf-on-wolf vote hiding behind the QT vote, especially if she didn't expect the bandwagon that followed.
(Ref. to analysis of Ka (me) Lhuna-vote timing)
#1119: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. Gives ‘fake-vote(s)’.
-POST QT Day Vote-
#1154:
Quote:
Considering he hasn't been heavily discussed here toDay, I wonder if the QT is reading into something we're not seeing.
I'm not sure if I'm ready to follow the QT vote toDay, but I definitely think he's worth taking another look at.
(Ref. to QT Rune-vote)
#1215,1231: Vote-post. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
- No further posts Day 5 -

Rune -
#1095:
Quote:
Seems quite plain to me. It is an innocent who starts to second guess her own reasoning because of external factors.
(Ref. to Lommy about Lal’s comment on previous QT Lhuna-vote)
#1096: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1098: Gives ‘fake-vote’. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
-POST QT Day Vote-
#1163: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1179: Reply to Zil, doesn’t believe QT-vote could be correct twice, but understands why they would say such.
Quote:
I expected to get a bit of attention today, but honestly I thought it would have regarding the timing of my vote yesterday (considering Lhuna turned out being an infector). Really surprised as both Legate and Lalaith to be reasonably convinced of my innocence.
(Ref. to direct quote of QT vote that Day)
#1193:
Quote:
Though taking recent events into consideration I would like to stress that an innocent QT thread is clearly quite capable of mistakes.
#1213:
Quote:
Nor do I understand why an innocent would be so eager to support the QT thread, suggesting all that doesn't are suspicious... too brasen too opportunistic for an innocent.
(Ref. to Eonwe role speculation and previous voting pattern)
#1214: Reply to Loslote’s reasoning for voting along with QT vote for Day over previous suspicions of Ka.
#1217: Vote-post. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1224:
Quote:
If nothing else today has made me quite firm in my belief that Inziladun and Eönwë are two of our remaining infectors. Brinn was my third choice, but I am not sure it adds up anymore.
I get why it is compelling to want to leave your vote in the hands of known innocents, nobody likes making difficult choices, but the way it was seized upon by Eönwë and Inziladun just confirms my suspicions.
#1225, 1234: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
- No further posts Day 5 -

*Pitch – (For reference):
#1055: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1059:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
I'm certainly going to continue the good ground we began yesterday with the QT vote and feel I should get a tiny apology. Not a big one, but a small one, because the living and dead worked together and we did what I advocated we should have done for days.
Pitch in reply:
Quote:
Considering that yesterDay was the first Day this actually made sense, it'll have to be a small one.
#1060, 1062: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1071:
Quote:
It's 6:3 now; Hui & Lhuna can PM behind the others' backs, and we can count on G55 to vote with whatever the wolves come up with, so yes, a concerted baddie action to derail the QT vote is not out of the question. We'll all have to see what the Cuties come up with and decide whether we're willing to trust it.
#1093, 1100: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1118:
Quote:
All good points.
(Ref. to Lommy’s post #1112 on helping QT vote)
#1127: Gives ‘fake-vote’. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
-POST QT Day Vote-
#1150:
Quote:
Dang. How likely is it that Lhuna decided this vote?
(Ref. to QT Rune-vote)
#1157:
Quote:
Yes. I meant whether there was a tie and she broke it. But we can't know that.
(Ref. to Zil’s statement that Lhuna in QT would only have power to break tie)
#1171:
Quote:
All it would have taken is an early innocent vote for Rune, three baddies pile on that, votes are tied, Lhuna breaks it. It's possible.
But assuming the innocents voted wolf!Rune conventiently happens to work in your favour, doesn't it?
Reply to Zil.
#1181:
Quote:
I'm not ready to vote Rune quite yet, but I could go with either of Ka or Eönwë (duly noted about Morgoth's Breath)
#1191:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eonwe
I'm also very suspicious of anyone trying to immediately discredit/minimize what the QT has said - obviously, the innocents don't know anything, so reasonable doubt is merited, but I don't like these two reactions
Reply to Eonwe:
Quote:
I don't think it's such an outlandish reaction when they vote somebody you felt very much was innocent.
#1211: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1219: Vote-post. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1239: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
- No further posts Day 5 -


I haven't checked the thread since two hours ago, so if any of this has been answered, I apologise again. On that and with a long day tomorrow, I'm going to sleep.
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Old 05-14-2020, 10:17 PM   #1301
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Back briefly. Just realised that I forgot to go back and add the newly-known innocents to my previous vote list. So here it is again, fixed:

Bold is evil, italics is good.

Day 1
Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
Boro -> Pitchwife
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel (2)
Kath -> G55 (2)
Shasta -> Pitchwife (2)
Kitanna -> Pitchwife (3)
Inzil -> G55 (3)
Lottie -> G55 (4)
Greenie -> Macalaure
THE Ka -> Brinniel (3)
Eönwë -> Urwen
Rune -> Brinniel (4)
Lommy -> G55 (5)
Huines -> G55 (6)
Legate -> Brinn (5)
Macalaure -> Brinn (6)
Brinniel -> G55 (7)
---G55 Fake Ranger Reveal---
Sally -> Brinn (7)

Reminder: while G55 is evil, because she's the Cobbler she and the Infectors didn't know who each other were at this point.



Day 2
Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4
Sally -> Macalaure 4
Inzil -> Macalaure 5
Lalaith -> Huinesoron 5
Brinn -> Huinesoron 6
Boro -> Mac 6
Eönwë -> Huinesoron 7
Shasta -> Mac


Day 3
THE Ka -> Sally
QT -> Brinn
Eönwë -> Sally 2
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Sally 3
Lommy -> Sally 4
--- Sally Hunter reveal---
Inzil -> Brinn 2
Lottie -> Sally 5
Lalaith -> Sally 6
Legate -> Sally 7
Shasta -> Sally 8
Brinn -> Sally 9
Rune -> Inzil 2
Boro -> Sally 10
Pitch -> Eonwe



Day 4
Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil
The Ka -> Lhuna 2
Pitchwife -> Eönwë 2
Lalaith -> Lhuna 3
Lommy -> Lhuna 4
Rune -> Eönwë 3
Kath -> Lhuna 5
Shasta -> Lhuna 6
Boro -> Eönwë 4
Brinn -> Lhuna 7



Day 5
QT -> Rune
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Inzil 2
Shasta -> THE Ka
Eönwë -> Rune 2
Boro -> Eönwë
Inzil -> Rune 3
Lommy -> Inzil 3
Lottie -> Rune 4
Brinn -> Inzil 4
Rune -> Inzil 5
Pitch -> Inzil 6
THE Ka -> Shasta
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Old 05-14-2020, 11:50 PM   #1302
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Concrete thoughts on each living player

I haven't really had a chance to collect my thoughts on each person left, and given the last two Days, it looks like I probably should start reassessing everyone. So I'm skimming over my old posts in the thread to see if there's anything I've forgotten/need to follow up on now that we know more. These are the concrete thoughts I've mentioned in the thread about about reasons people looked good or bad (more than just feelings/vibes/sub-radar location) that are still relevant:




Thinlómien
  • Neutral: Seemed (to me on Day 1) to avoid getting too deep into the fake vote discussion.
  • Bad: In Day 2, it looked to me like she was attacking Boro and then backed off once it was gaining traction.
  • Bad Early on in Day 3, discounted the idea of wolf-on-wolf for Huin. We only know Lhuna and Huin's roles, so we'll see whether there were any in time, but in principle I didn't like this at the time.
  • Probably good: Her all out on the Sally quarantine (originally I thought this didn't exonerate her - and it doesn't - but it does look more good than bad).
  • ????: She's on Hui's list of suspects. The others turned out to be innocent. Does this mean that she's the one wolf he snuck in there or just another innocent he wanted to quarantine/infect? Not sure.
  • ??: Mentioned by Lhuna as a possible wolf.
  • Bad: Flimsy case against me based on Legate-seeming-like-a-seer theory.


Loslote
  • Too under my radar for anything apparently.


Kath
  • Bad: Quoting known-wolf Lhuna saying my voting was suspicious, and then saying it for herself.

A Little Green
  • Too under my radar for anything apparently.

Boromir88
  • Bad: Lots of strange/not-actually-helpful posting on Day 1
  • Bad: His focused Day 2 post felt like it was trying to narrow the general discussion (and made him look better by omission).
  • Bad: Again focused on a specific subset, and did the same thing as Lommy in avoiding talking about wolf-on-wolf. Again, we'll see in future whether this shielded anyone.
  • ??: Mentioned by Lhuna as a possible wolf.

Brinniel
  • Neutral: Seemed (to me on Day 1) to avoid getting too deep into the fake vote discussion.

Rune Son of Bjarne
  • Bad: Admitted that he naturally suspects me, but went along with that anyway.

THE Ka
  • TBD: If Brinn is evil, could've engaged in some risky wolf-on-wolf on Day 1 (if she didn't think Brinn-voting was as likely as it actually was).
  • TBD: Expanded votes on Day 3. At the time, I was suspicious because I thought it was possible Mac was evil. Looking back, this still could be bad (but not as bad) if Lottie is good - she may have been trying to start a Lottie-waggon to prevent a Hui quarantine as Mac-suspicion was losing steam.
  • Bad: Potentially trying to pin me and Shasta together in suspicion.

Shastanis Althreduin
Good:
  • Good: His #322 looked like it was intended to minimize the Kit discussion. Though it should be noted that it could've been wolvish (and calculated to look good, and low-cost if he already was confident she was actually the ranger), but that seems less likely.
  • TBD: If Brinn is evil, he added added Pitch to viable alternative candidates.
  • Bad: Holding his Day 2 vote (when a wolf was on the line) until it didn't matter.
  • Bad: Potentially trying to pin me and THE Ka together in suspicion.
  • Possible wolf slip, followed up by 'subtly' pretending to be the seer.



Topics not included above:
  • The Rune-Legate discussion (See my #1075). There's a chance that Lhuna could have argued against Rune seeming innocent to leave open the possibility of throwing a packmate under the bus, but again, this needs to be looked over in more detail.


Ok, what does this tell me? I've definitely had too much tunnel-vision. I need to reassess everyone.
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Old 05-15-2020, 12:23 AM   #1303
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Ok, let's analyse the votes day-by-day:

Day 1
We can only tell anything if Brinn turns out to be evil, otherwise it's three (as far as the wolves knew at least) innocents.

If Brinn is evil, then THE Ka could theoretically be trying a kind-of-dangerous-but-not-too-dangerous wolf-on-wolf. All non-Brinn voters other than Brinn herself (Boro, Kath, Shasta, Lottie, Greenie, me, Lommy) could also theoretically be suspicious too. So if Brinn is evil, only Rune really looks good.

Summary: if Brinn is evil, Rune looks good.




Day 2

Lhuna's relatively safe vote for Lommy could be wolf-on-wolf.

Greenie's vote for Mac could've been a way to protect Lommy or Brinn if Greenie and at least one of them is evil.

If Lottie is evil, Rune and THE Ka's votes could be safe 'throwaway' wolf-on-wolf votes to come back to later. If she's good and Mac interest seemed to be waning (I seem to remember Sally's at least came suddenly), it could have been a late attempt to start a counterwaggon to Hui's

Boro's vote directly allowed for a chance to save Hui.

Lottie's Hui vote could have been semi-dangerous wolf-on-wolf, but is admittedly a bit risky.


Probably the only really suspicious vote this Day was Boro's, and to a lesser extent the Lottie-voters (Rune and THE Ka) - the rest are a lot more speculative.


Summary: Bad vote from Boro, kind-of-bad votes from Rune and THE Ka.




Day 3
Hard to tell disentangle this mess. Wolves could easily hide among Sally voters. Sally voters after the reveal (Lottie, Shasta, Brinn, Boro) are more suspicious than before (THE Ka, me, Greenie, Lommy). Rune's late vote looks kind of throwaway, and may have been planted as a way to bring back Zil suspicion in future (as a I mentioned previously, it looked like the Zil vote was semi-planned). Kath's was earlier, so it was still possible to quarantine him at that point.

Summary: Lottie, Shasta, Brinn, Boro, and Rune are a little suspicious based on this.





Day 4
Non-Lhuna voters after the QT vote are generally more suspicious: Lottie, Greenie, Rune, Boro , with Rune and Boro looking the worst of these (really trying to keep Lhuna from being quarantined). The only Lhuna-voter that could have been hiding is Brinn - that's the first Lhuna vote where her fate was already sealed.

Summary: Rune and Boro especially bad, followed by Lottie, Greenie, and Brinn.





Day 5
Hard to analyze. I'm still pretty suspicious of anyone who didn't vote Rune, but we know at least one innocent did that so (and clearly there aren't 5 wolves left), so I'll have to think about it.
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Old 05-15-2020, 12:25 AM   #1304
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Correction: in my post #1302, the seer thing was clearly meant to be Bad and go under Boro.
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Old 05-15-2020, 01:55 AM   #1305
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I am not going to pretend that I understand the fine details of Boromir’s interaction with the QT thread, but I am inclined to believe his “reveal”. Personally I thought there was a chance he was the seer (i definitely had no better leads), so I decided to steer clear of him for a while and focus attention elsewhere. Reading Lommy's post I realise that there are better ways to help a potential seer. I was wondering why he kind of turned on me yesterday, as he had mostly seen me in a favorable light, but I ended up concluding that if he was the seer then he had yet to dream of me.

If he is right that QT followed his hints, then how would the known innocents have kept their trust in him a secret from the infected? Is there something I am missing?

I have briefly skimmed through the posts, and nothing much has really changed my perspective.
As I might have mentioned yesterday, I don’t think I am capable of imagining a scenario where Eönwë isn’t a wolf.
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Old 05-15-2020, 03:46 AM   #1306
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I've finally caught up on everything that happened yesterDay and toDay! From now on, if I say someone looks blatantly wolfish, please lay off them as they’re probably innocent.

Overall general impressions? Lommy's reaction to Boro makes her look very innocent. (Also I can relate.) THE Ka is probably my best lead where possible wolves are concerned. I'm re-evaluating Rune, too. I need to do some further thinking re: Boro and Eonwe as both give me a headache.

So starting from yesterDay -

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath
In response to Boro's comments. Boro had suggested a pack of Lhuna, Lottie, Inzil + one more. Greenie seems to discount Lottie from this list and I agree based on the reasons I gave previously. Boro and Greenie - what linked Lhuna and Inzil for you, given you seemed to agree on that point?
I didn't really see a link between Lhuna and Inzil at that point if I'm honest (that was before we found out Lhuna's role). Rather that I suspected both of them and didn't see them as actively incompatible with each other, either.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath
Greenie votes Inzil for being the most suspicious and mentioned suspicion of Lhuna and Boro. Having previously said you'd be tempted to follow the QT, Greenie, why the decision to stick to Inzil in the end?
Fair question. I did seriously consider it, but in the end decided to go for Inzil because he was my top suspect at the time and I felt the argument against him was stronger. Also, a few others already had a vote by that point and none of them were people I felt very good about, so there was also an element of "que sera sera and let's see who defends whom and what falls out". Another element is probably a personality thing - I'm not good with quick changes. I might as well just stop waiting until after the QT vote since getting possible new information very shortly before I need to make my decision tends to lead to me ignoring the new information as I don't have enough time to process it properly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
I'm not sure about Eönwë-Shasta but I keep seeing Greenie-Eönwë and Greenie-Shasta as things. But it's hard for me to evaluate it because I know both Shasta and Eönwë are among Greenie's best 'downs buddies so that might make them likely to lowkey team up regardless of their alignments, especially if they were innocents genuinely thinking the other one innocent too.
True, I might have a bit of a blind spot where those two are concerned. I still think Shasta looks more innocent than not (especially if THE Ka does turn out to be a wolf) but I'm starting to get confused about Eonwe.

Re: Rune. If Boro is right and the Cuties only voted for Rune because they thought Boro was the Seer, the information value of the QT vote is somewhat diminished. That said, it also doesn't automatically mean that Rune is off the hook, either. I found this point by Lommy noteworthy, regardless of the actual motivation behind the QT vote:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
Now that you mention it, I guess you could read me and Lhuna's exchange as Lhuna trying to look good by pointing out a flaw in my reasoning, while it didn't really work because it didn't look like a flaw to anyone who didn't know Rune is a wolf?

If Rune is a wolf, I would hazard a guess that THE Ka is too. Remember how she compared me and Lhuna's arguments (in a manner that I can't call anything but weird) and came to the conclusion that mine is better? How convenient if Rune was her packmate and she was basically saying "shh Lhuna, let the innocents faultily conclude our packmate is innocent".
Particularly that first paragraph - I remember thinking that something in Lhuna argument against Lommy's conclusion about Rune seemed off, and couldn't really put a finger on it. I think this is a possibility. And speaking of Lommy's theory of Rune and Ka being fellows, Ka's reaction to yesterDay's QT vote isn't exactly reassuring. It's just noncommittal enough as not to come across as a defence of Rune, while sowing further doubt about whether we should trust the QT pick:

Quote:
Originally Posted by THE Ka
As for the QT vote... not expecting that and I don't really see why Rune.
Also on Rune, this gave me pause as well:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
But re: Eönwë and Lhuna, I find it rather interesting that on Day1 he said:
Quote:
Just so you know I am biased (or blind) in some ways. I naturally suspect Loslote and Eonwe, I believe it has always been thus. I always want to believe the best of Lhuna, I know it has always been thus.
Is he really a self-fulfilling prophecy, or was this him laying grounds for trusting fellow!Lhuna and going for innocent!Eönwë (and possibly innocent!Lottie) later in the game?
This is also possible - actually it reminds me of Lommy and Huin's conversation on D1 about how doing "what you always do" is a natural cover for a wolf.

And that's all I've got from yesterDay. I picked out quite a bit to comment on from toDay as well, but that'll have to wait - I'm currently on sick leave because I can't sit in front of the computer for longer than about 15 minutes at a time so this post took a few hours to write. I'll come back and continue in a while!
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Old 05-15-2020, 04:55 AM   #1307
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
DID EÖNWË AGAIN SLIP HE KNOWS BRINN IS INNOCENT?

(or has he given up and is fabricating wolf slips to make packmate Brinn look good at this point??)


edit: xed, okay I see not. Yeah I need to sleep.
Maybe we're all a little bit rusty. It's at least provided The Nogmod with an epic game...as we all continue tearing our hair out.

I will say the stand out day was really Day 4 with Lhuna's lynched.

Day 1 Chaos DL, cobbler lynched

Day 2 chaos DL, wolf lynched

Day 3, chaos hunter, sally lynched

Day 4 was the stand out...it was our most orderly and organized lynch. That was also the first day the QT was in control of the innocents. It suggests, that perhaps the wolves did decide to bus Lhuna, because it had such a completely different feel than Huey's lynch.
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Old 05-15-2020, 05:01 AM   #1308
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Oh and I must be away for several hours...slowly reopening is killing my mood of staying home for the last 2 months.

+-THE Ka

I'm torn with Eonwe's blood thirst in this game. It seems like he can be convinced to lynch half the village. At the same time he was the one I was really sending "dreamed wolf" of clues on and if he was I would have expected my plan to work.

So, I'll go with other option today, because of how orderly Lhuna's lynch was and when I read Ka's reasons for voting Lhuna it boiled down to "because the QT said so" but she didn't add any further suspicions to Lhuna.
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Old 05-15-2020, 05:46 AM   #1309
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I gotta admit Boro's non-reveal sort of triggered a werewolf fatigue in me, I hate to be back to square one again. But I will try. ToDay and toMorrow are crucial Days, and I hope our brave seer is dabbling in maths as well as clairvoyance. But as long as they are in hiding, we have to use our little gray cells.

I am a bit reluctant to start untangling the whole Boro-Eönwë-Brinn mess, because frankly it makes me a little uncomfortable. I am really tempted to ignore deeper implications of recent events and go with my general feeling of Boro and Brinn being innocent and Eönwë being guilty, but I'm not sure this is a wise course of action.

The rest of the village? I still think Lottie is innocent, Greenie seems pretty good to me too, and I am a bit hesitant to jump on the Rune suspicion because I don't have much good reasons to suspect him and it sort of looks too easy? Meaning, (if Boro is right which it looks like he is), the whole Rune suspicion arose because he signaled the QT about him and they responded because they trusted him, not because they distrusted Rune. Granted, we have maybe collectively been giving Rune too much of a pass, but the new wave of suspicion is on really flimsy grounds. Lots of room for brain farts here.

Kath and Shasta? Neither of them looks super guilty to me, but neither do they look super innocent. I guess that if my innocent list in the above paragraph is correct, then it's very likely one of them is a wolf. Which one? Who knows.

THE Ka I think a very likely wolf because like I keep saying, her "disconnected" playing style strikes me as fishy, and so are her connections to the dead wolves. Like there is nothing glaringly obvious all in all, but it's more like a process of elimination. We still have three wolves left and I have hard time imagining a scenario where Ka is NOT one of them.

Therefore as it stands I would vote +-THE Ka

Also my suggestion for the QTs for toDay: ignore Boro and just vote whoever you think is suspicious. I think we need a little help here.


PS. I have skimmed through/ quickly read the discussion that happened while I was gone. I will likely get back to it at some point toDay but now it's a whole lot of EURGH I CAN'T DEAL WITH THIS for me. (Yes I still want to smack Boro a little, but I guess I will forgive him if he's innocent. If he's not then )
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Old 05-15-2020, 06:08 AM   #1310
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What is with this village and Gifted's? Fake reveals, real reveals, reveals of fake-ness. I'm not sure I understand even half of what Boro is claiming to have been doing with his Seer act. You suggested Rune because you didn't think he was suspicious and just wanted to see whether the QT would follow your lead? And then the wolves would think you were the Seer because if Rune was a wolf, they'd think you'd spotted him, and if Rune wasn't a wolf ... what, you'd just not dreamed of him then? But the wolves didn't go after you, so Pitch must have looked more Seer-ish. That said, I've read through Lommy's Pitch-alysis and I have to largely agree. There didn't seem to be much there that would indicate him being a Gifted and seemingly being vital for them to kill.

And now Rune is in the midst of all this. I want to see if Boro is actually right that no one else really put him up as a candidate prior to the QT vote yesterDay, and therefore the QT must have been following his ideas. I feel like the last time I really saw Rune properly discussed before all this was in the context of Legate possibly having been killed for Seer-ish vibes, but I'd ended up feeling quite good about him as a result of that, so I need to go back and look at it.

Also, I don't understand this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta
Regardless of whether Boro is telling the truth or not, I think it's likely the QT'ed innocents believed him to be the Seer. We could test that theory with having them follow Boro's vote again today, if we thought it mattered.
I thought that the QT could read the game thread. So wouldn't they now know that Boro is saying he isn't the Seer and so wouldn't follow his vote?
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Old 05-15-2020, 06:51 AM   #1311
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Trying to unpick Boro.

So first off – I only made one note yesterDay while reading the thread. This is what it says:

Boro Seer-hinting/slipping (note to self: if Boro still alive but not revealing toMorrow, have a closer look)



My immediate reaction to his non-reveal (I love that word btw) was that he’s innocent. I still think that’s the more likely scenario, but I also don’t think I can afford to trust anyone, especially someone like Boro who could totally pull a stunt like this whatever his role, and especially given my impressive track record of being wrong in this game so far. So. Starting point: I think whatever his role, Boro is probably telling the truth about pretending to be the Seer, doing some testing and realising the QT think so too. But beyond this –

Scenario 1Boro is innocent.

This does look exactly like something a Borordo would do. But as noted above, it’s pretty curious that he’s still alive. We’re getting to a point where the wolves really, really have no option but the gun for the Seer, so even if the wolves were inclined to think he was bluffing, it would be really bold of them not to eliminate him just to be safe. So if he isn’t a wolf himself, the only other feasible explanation (in my head at least) is that he was so blatantly wrong in his hints about someone that the wolves knew he wasn’t the Seer. So for example if Lommy is a wolf, they would know Boro wasn’t the real Seer. Likewise if Eonwe is innocent.

Scenario 2
Boro is a wolf.

Possible, if with some reservations. The starting point – pretending to be the Seer, gaining the trust of the QT, and rolling with it – would definitely be a possibility even if Boro is a wolf. Lommy mentioned phantom-esque double bluff ploys, and I actually don’t have a problem imagining Boro pulling off something like that. That said, there are a few issues with this theory.

Most obviously, why would he come out now instead of pressing his advantage and continuing to manipulate the QT? My immediate thought would be that a Borolf would keep going with the charade as long as we let him, then come out with an actual reveal if he started being suspected and try to draw the real Seer out in the process.

Possibly he thought he’d come under fire about not being Night-killed, and wanted to avoid it getting that far – especially if this implicated a fellow. Coming out like this does make him look pretty innocent, and as long as we don’t lynch him, we won’t get anything definite about the fellow he was trying to protect, either. Additionally, following up on Lottie’s point about how Eonwe challenging Boro toDay looks like an attempt to distract from himself – if they are fellows, this would be a masterstroke. All we’re doing is talking about Boro, and most people seem inclined to believe him – and his innocence would also make Eonwe appear innocent. Meanwhile, they are sufficiently suspicious of each other so this doesn’t look too buddy-buddy.

--

I still think scenario 1 is more likely, but I managed to make scenario 2 sound like such an awesome stroke of evil genius that I’ll be almost disappointed if it’s not true Regardless, I’d be tempted to draw a simplistic conclusion that Boro and Eonwe are on the same side. That is, either they’re both innocent or both guilty. I’m leaning towards both innocent at the moment, but reserve the right to change my mind.
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Old 05-15-2020, 07:05 AM   #1312
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It is true that it's hard to see why Borowolf wouldn't follow through and reveal as the seer.

Think about it.

He has laid the perfect grounds for it for Days, he has plenty of material to point to in order to back up his claim. He has been making loud enough seer hints that he could hope a few innocents would be partial to his reveal on the spot.

Especially if he revealed before the actual seer came forth? I think he might be initially believed far more than the real seer.

Wait I'm thinking and maybe I'll do a legate180 --

What if Borowolf was setting himself up for a fake seer reveal the whole time?? And then toDay, he chickened out for some reason, and decided to claim he's an ordo trying to fake to be the seer?

Maybe because if he made his seer claim toDay and there was a counter claim from the real seer, even if we believed him and lynched the real seer, we could bag a wolf toMorrow by lynching him.

While maybe he figured that he can't wait until toMorrow to make the claim after his parting post yesterDay which was going to look fishy otherwise.

I mean, it is important for the wolves that we lynch an innocent both toDay and toMorrow. Then they win. If we lynch a wolf on one of those Days, the game continues still. A fake seer reveal might start looking like a worse choice than just crossing their fingers that the actual seer hasn't dreamt of any wolves?
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Old 05-15-2020, 07:17 AM   #1313
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More jumbled thoughts

Hmm. On the other hand, if Boro and Eönwë were both wolves, don't you think Boro would be pressing the "my not-death proves I was wrong about Eönwë" angle a little harder toDay?

Also if "suspecting Eönwë" is the question on which Boro's lack of getting Night killed supposedly hinges on, then why is the one who actually died Pitchwife who *dramatic drumroll* suspected Eönwë??

And why is virtually nobody talking about the fact that Boro "not getting killed" could be just as well about being wrong about his supposed "known innocents" ie me and Brinn? Why is Boro not second guessing his trust in us if he's innocent?

I think the only thing I'm certain of is that there is no way in hell that all of Boro, Eönwë and Brinn are innocent. But that's not very much to go on.
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Old 05-15-2020, 07:43 AM   #1314
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
And why is virtually nobody talking about the fact that Boro "not getting killed" could be just as well about being wrong about his supposed "known innocents" ie me and Brinn? Why is Boro not second guessing his trust in us if he's innocent?
Why is my own sister calling me "virtually nobody"? Rude.
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Old 05-15-2020, 07:56 AM   #1315
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While we're tossing ideas around -

What's going on with Brinn? She's still playing pretty safe and uncontroversial. The best arguments for her innocence (as far as I can tell) have to do with her role in the Huin lynch; she voted for Lhuna, too, but only after she was already a goner so this doesn't give us much. The other argument for Brinn's innocence is how evil QT voted for her twice and then good QT laid off her. Though if good QT's choices have been informed by fake-Seer Boro, the likely reason they dropped her is because they saw the "Seer" hinting at her innocence, not because they'd have some evidence about her innocence that we don't (ie. dead Huinwolf's posts). The only thing we can get out of the QT turning away from voting Brinn is that if she is indeed Huin's fellow and the early QT votes for her an effort to make her look better, he at least managed this without slipping about her role in the QT.
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Old 05-15-2020, 08:50 AM   #1316
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rune
If he is right that QT followed his hints, then how would the known innocents have kept their trust in him a secret from the infected? Is there something I am missing?
I don't know if they'd have needed to. As soon as they're the ones controlling the vote, they could discuss potential Seers completely openly. The only risk is that if the QT later becomes evil-dominated, the bad guys could then try to signal to their living fellows re: the identity of a potential Seer. This seems pretty hypothetical to me though, as any "Seer" hinting directly enough for the QT to notice would probably have been noticed by the living wolves already anyway.
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Old 05-15-2020, 09:31 AM   #1317
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A list, simplified:

Could be a wolf:
Ka
Eonwe
Brinn
Shasta

Probably not a wolf:
Boro
Rune

Probably innocent:
Lottie
Lommy
Greenie
Kath

Now, this is bold, and I am fully willing to admit that I could be wrong to put some of the players that I did in the probably innocent category - but I feel very confident that our three wolves are among the four players in the could be a wolf category. I'll also add that I don't suspect Shasta, I just think that he's the person I'm most possibly wrong about, and so if I'm wrong about any of my three main suspects, he's the person I would then look at. I would be willing to vote for any of Ka, Eonwe, or Brinn today, but for the Cuties:

+- Ka
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Old 05-15-2020, 09:44 AM   #1318
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I'm not sure what to make of this whole Boro mess. It's proved to be quite the distraction so far toDay, which could be brilliant if he's a wolf. On the other hand, I agree with his reasoning for suspecting Ka. And I like Greenie's "unpicking Boro" post. Her analysis seems genuine and find myself agreeing with her conclusions, particularly with the possibility that both Boro and Eonwe are innocent.

So my suspects for toDay:
Ka - similar reasons that Boro stated and also for the reasons I mentioned yesterDay
Kath - now that I know Inzil was innocent, I find her more suspicious for voting multiple Days on someone who was universally suspected. Her vote for Lhuna could've been wolf-on-wolf; if she had tried to save her at that point, it would've looked fishy indeed.
Rune - to a lesser extent. His voting record and suspicions don't look terribly innocent, but I'm not completely sold that he's a wolf.

I don't like how quiet it is right now. Unfortunately, I have a business meeting scheduled for the last two hours of the Day, so at maximum, I might be able to slip in a vote, but you'll see little else from me.

For now, my vote would go to +-Ka.
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Old 05-15-2020, 09:52 AM   #1319
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Quote:
Originally Posted by THE Ka View Post
#1179: Reply to Zil, doesn’t believe QT-vote could be correct twice, but understands why they would say such.
Excuse me for being pedantic. It is not a question of "belief", I know if the QT-vote was correct twice in a row or not (it wasn't). The real question is if you believe me or not.

Anyways for reasons previously stated.

+- Eönwë

I might cast an early vote today, as I am not certain I can be around for deadline.
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Old 05-15-2020, 10:03 AM   #1320
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Quote:
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I'm not sure what to make of this whole Boro mess. It's proved to be quite the distraction so far toDay, which could be brilliant if he's a wolf. On the other hand, I agree with his reasoning for suspecting Ka. And I like Greenie's "unpicking Boro" post. Her analysis seems genuine and find myself agreeing with her conclusions, particularly with the possibility that both Boro and Eonwe are innocent.

So my suspects for toDay:
Ka - similar reasons that Boro stated and also for the reasons I mentioned yesterDay
Kath - now that I know Inzil was innocent, I find her more suspicious for voting multiple Days on someone who was universally suspected. Her vote for Lhuna could've been wolf-on-wolf; if she had tried to save her at that point, it would've looked fishy indeed.
Rune - to a lesser extent. His voting record and suspicions don't look terribly innocent, but I'm not completely sold that he's a wolf.
You really have nothing to say about Eonwe beyond agreeing with Greenie and therefore lumping him and Boro together? I personally don't understand her argument that they're on the same side at all. Like, I don't understand what the argument is. What I see is, Eonwe came out swinging, very like a wolf who decided not to kill him and to instead try to argue that his fake reveal was suspicious, and who was surprised to find that the village wasn't super interested in suspecting Boro when he assumed they would be. Eonwe already tied the two of you together by trying to say that you looked innocent like Lommy - now you're saying he looks innocent like Boro? Looks a lot like two packmates to me.
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