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Old 04-22-2021, 09:06 PM   #121
satansaloser2005
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Boro being phantom-esque with his scheming toDay makes me feel good about him. Something about it feels genuine, and while I've been wrong about him before (don't hurt me, my prince!) I think my radar is correctly calibrated here.

I have the same gut feeling about Pitch, after his reaction to my (non)vote yesterDay. Unless he does something nasty, I think I trust him.

I'm always suspicious of Morsul because he is, somewhat like myself, a loose cannon. I'm not getting feelings one way or the other on him yet, so I'll leave him be for at least tonight and will revisit in the morning.

Speaking of Morsul, kind of, Lottie seems to be picking a fight with him. Rather, picking a suspicion with him. I don't necessarily disagree with what Pop is saying, but it seems more aggressive than she might be as an ordo. Pinging my radar again, this time the wolfy kind.

I get no read on Kath, which is normally safe, but again, I'll have to revisit later.

Other non-reads include Hui, Sori, and Lommy, although in her case, I'm suspicious of my lack of suspicion.

Last but not least, Legate is always evil and must die. I jest. I have no read on him either, but I'm sure that will rapidly change once he wakes up and posts some more.


So to put it in a quicker format....

Would currently vote: Lottie (for aggression), Lommy (gut instinct)
No idea: Hui, Sori, Legate
Would currently not vote: Boro, Pitch, Morsul, Kath
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Old 04-22-2021, 09:11 PM   #122
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Welp, that double post (now triple, sorry) means it's time for me to go to bed. Hopefully our European friends will have a lot to say during my night and I'll wake up to some posts to play with. Until then, nighty night!
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Old 04-22-2021, 09:22 PM   #123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
Lottie's the most off, just her posting all day is not what I've come to expect. She's typically a bigger ruffler than me, and right up there with Huey. But all day the responses are tame and reserved like here..."Ok I get it why you suspect me, but Kath?" And then misinterpreted why Pitch was suspicious of Kath.
Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
Speaking of Morsul, kind of, Lottie seems to be picking a fight with him. Rather, picking a suspicion with him. I don't necessarily disagree with what Pop is saying, but it seems more aggressive than she might be as an ordo. Pinging my radar again, this time the wolfy kind.
This is why I never bother to try to play a certain way or act "normal", no one can agree on how I play "normally" anyway. Am I normally aggressive? Am I normally a ruffler? Chalk this one up to the duality of man.
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Old 04-23-2021, 03:01 AM   #124
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Okay, I just spent like an hour by analysing the votes, so I'm gonna do this first. But before that, regarding Form's death...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark View Post
Obviously they voted Sally which for me is a predicament. I do think her initial post of “around but tired” then just a non commital “no vote vote no time” post. I find that frustrating and easily a wolffish submarine tactic. HOWEVER, the night kill obvious points at Sally which makes me think it’s too obvious it’s her and therefor not her. But also it could be a move set on making that argument and it IS her.
This actually is a thought process I can more or less follow and agree with. But I even more agree with Boro on that obviously, the WWs would be interested in getting rid of the Seer first. That - unless they are acting in some really unorthodox manner - basically means that a) they thought Form was the Seer, or b) by way of negation there was nobody they thought more likely to be the Seer. Which is something to consider too.

Otherwise: voting. Okay, let's have the list for convenience:

Kath > Morsul
Greenie > Pitch
Morsul > hS
Lommy > hS [2]
Legate > Greenie
Huinesoron > Greenie [2]
Form > Sally
Boro > Lottie
Lottie > Greenie [3]
Sally > no vote (thus making it clear at this point that her vote wasn't following)
Pitch > hS [3]
(not voted: Soriman)

It is quite interesting that the first couple of votes (Kath's for Morsul and Greenie's for Pitch) were eventually completely forgotten. From purely analytical point of view, in the small numbers in the village, I think we actually had a "healthy spread" of votes (meaning, not just one huge bandwagon for one person, and not even two bandwagons - there were two, but "big" here meant three votes, and there were votes for four completely different people still).

I actually think this is "healthy" in the sense that it does not show the, hum hmm, "herd mentality", and individual votes are more... well, individual; therefore saying more about those who cast them. That is not to say that the spread does not make it an ideal place for throwaway votes.

Kath and Greenie voted early, so it was hardly throwaway; in fact, with Morsul being discussed, Kath might have expected him to gather more. The follow-up possibility is that if one of the first voted (i.e. Morsul or Pitch) was a Wolf, the steering away from these completely later might have been the result of a specific effort of other Wolves to steer clear of one or them (or, in the most extreme case, both).

Under this model, there are lots of singular votes that by themselves do not say much except that they are still creating alternatives (and at the same time are potentially throwaway). Whom I would put under scrutiny are actually the people who made the second votes, thus making the bandwagons roll (Lommy and Hui, with the added value that Hui was acting clearly with the bonus to prevent a wagon against himself - the question of course being that he could have equally well voted for Morsul or Pitch, if it was just about that). Either of them could have acted as Wolves protecting one of Morsul or Pitch (who had votes from before) by supporting bandwagons for somebody else.

Also knowing Greenie being innocent, Lottie's vote which "sealed the deal" might have been a way of Lotwolf to save a fellow Huiwolf from the noose. But I think a scenario where Hui and Lottie are both Wolves who voted in order to save Hui would be almost to good to be true. Of course, it is perfectly possible. But Lottie doing this specifically in order to save Hui requires multiple premises to be true first.

Interestingly enough, purely based on vibe when looking at the list of votes, Pitch's vote strikes me as rather sinister because he had his opinions, then voted for Hui. And that was at the point when Greenie was leading, and Soriman was left to vote (with it not being sure whether he will). So Pitch's vote was potentially throwaway (if e.g. again the scenario that Hui was a Wolf was true - he would no longer endanger a packmate and at the same time distance himself from him) and at the same time not getting his "hands dirty" in lynching an innocent.

The one visibly "throwaway" vote is Boro's (and Form's would be too), posted at the time when there were two "bandwagons" (the quotation marks are intentional, because they were two votes large at that point - on the other hand, again, like I said, in a village of this size that is already something...) and multiple other votes he could have tied for 2, and not so many people left to vote that one could reasonably assume casting one vote for Lottie would get her lynched. So, yes, that is one thing that raises my alertness when it comes to Boro.

That is more or less it when it comes to the votes.

With all this being said, I think that the words of Form from yesterDay have quite a big of merit and I would consider looking at those who were (or are) quieter and slipping under the radar. It is good to see sally around and posting, I hope also more will follow from Soriman.

More thoughts later, I will be back. *cue in Terminator theme*
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Old 04-23-2021, 04:13 AM   #125
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Just popping in to say that today is a terrible day to have a Day for me - I have a big deadline at work and I'm seeing friends in the evening. But I'll try to make a comment post on my lunch/coffee break(s) and I'll be around for the last few hours before the DL (might stay up until the DL since it's Friday).

As for the recent events -

The wolves killed Form?? Why? I think he only grumbled about Day1s and people not participating? Maybe a safe no trace kill? I'll see if I have time to have a better look at his posts, but my first reaction to these news is confusion.

And you guys lynched Greenie after I went to sleep??? You come into my house and lynch my sister?! When she didn't do anything suspicious?? Dishonour on you, dishonour on your cow! Seriously though, I am quite baffled by this too, as Greenie seemed her normal innocent to me yesterDay, and she's not the type of player who usually gets lynched on Day1. (Yeah, I don't think it's fair some people gravitate towards getting lynched early regardless of their role, and some don't, but it's a thing. Someone like Greenie getting lynched on Day1 without a clear reason - I mean I might be biased because I didn't suspect her - makes me raise my eyebrows a little.) I will try to look at the lynch too.
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Old 04-23-2021, 04:20 AM   #126
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I was going to start by answering Pitchwife's question from late yesterDay (the answer being: no, it didn't particularly occur to me that Greenie would see their "flimsy... not confident about this" vote as being something that would attract overNight attention even from Wolf!Pitch), but then I looked at Pitch's history and I Have Questions.

These are the only comments I can find from Pitch on Greenie's alignment:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Greenie feels neutral, slightly on the goodish side.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
I thought earlier that Greenie might fit the job description for the X wolf steering clear of the Hui/Morsul business, but I don't really see anything screaming wolf in her (yet). I might go for Lottie or Kath.
Whereas he spent a fair bit of time discussing ways I might be a wolf. So, Question 1:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
If it's between Hui and Greenie, I'd actually (Legate 180 incoming) rather go for Hui just now. Anybody else?
How is 'staying with your previous opinions' now a "Legate 180"? Was the implication that he might pull a 180 in the future, er, eight minutes? If so, based on those previous stated opinions - why?

Question 2:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
sally, seriously?
In context (the "anyone else?" from the previous quote), this seems very like frustration that Sally hadn't voted for me. In which case, if the previous quote indicates that Pitch has or might "Legate 180" between me and Greenie - why this exasperation at someone not enabling my lynch over Greenie's? It seems out of proportion with Pitch's indicated uncertainty/wavering.

With all that in mind, Question 3:

Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
I have the same gut feeling about Pitch, after his reaction to my (non)vote yesterDay. Unless he does something nasty, I think I trust him.
Sally, what about Pitch's reaction looks particularly innocent/trustworthy to you?

hS
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Old 04-23-2021, 04:44 AM   #127
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Thinking about about Form's death - my first instinct was to say that even Wolf!Sally might not kill him as a suspected seer, because it would point the finger exclusively at her. I considered it more likely that he was a no-trail killing with a handy side-effect of implicating Sally.

But I've just remembered the Dead and the Ghost. The wolves know that the Seer's visions won't die with them - they can come back as a Ghost and attempt to convey them with no suspicion of lying. I think that tips the scales: they can't go "we'll kill him toMorrow Night when Sally looks less obvious as the reason", because that's another dream for the Seer that will come back to haunt them. I think they'd go for even a highly risky Seer-kill like Form's would have been for Sally.

Which means that if Sally isn't a wolf, then as Legate said a couple of posts back, none of the wolves felt they might have been scryed. I think that actually clears Morsul to an extent, because they could definitely have felt scryed yesterDay.

hS
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Old 04-23-2021, 05:03 AM   #128
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sally
Boro being phantom-esque with his scheming toDay makes me feel good about him. Something about it feels genuine, and while I've been wrong about him before (don't hurt me, my prince!) I think my radar is correctly calibrated here.
I think I have my sally-radar correctly calibrated as well. When you are busy-tired-wolf-sally you use the little time you have to try to create chaos. My first reaction to your no vote yesterday was "sally's been busy but it looks like she's trying to create chaos at the DL," which is why I was very interested to see what you would say today.

Your post #121 looks still busy-tired-sally but using the little time you have to genuinely help us by stating your opinions on where people stand with you. Now your no vote yesterday looks like you legit couldn't catch up and I can see an innocent-sally not wanting to vote for just anyone under those circumstances. It's a shame you'll still be busy-tired-sally, but now your vote and posts today look genuine and thus you were not attempting to create chaos popping in last minute Day 1.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
This is why I never bother to try to play a certain way or act "normal", no one can agree on how I play "normally" anyway. Am I normally aggressive? Am I normally a ruffler? Chalk this one up to the duality of man.
Well, by "ruffler" I mean ruffling feathers, you tend to be on a similar level to Huey, in poking and annoying people, as you did with Morsul beginning today. I don't know if it says anything about your alignment, but I agree with sally that it looked aggressive, and that is theLottie I'm most familiar with, who didn't appear at all yesterday.

That's an oddly specific and seems too narrow a net you're casting in your vote-analysis Legate. I agree with the conclusion that you really can't say there was a "bandwagon" with any of the votes yesterday and I also like Day 1s where there is a good spread of who receives votes. A true Day 1 bandwagon, in our small band would have given us little in analyzing Day 1 votes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Under this model, there are lots of singular votes that by themselves do not say much except that they are still creating alternatives (and at the same time are potentially throwaway). Whom I would put under scrutiny are actually the people who made the second votes, thus making the bandwagons roll (Lommy and Hui, with the added value that Hui was acting clearly with the bonus to prevent a wagon against himself - the question of course being that he could have equally well voted for Morsul or Pitch, if it was just about that). Either of them could have acted as Wolves protecting one of Morsul or Pitch (who had votes from before) by supporting bandwagons for somebody else.
This though is just very narrow and focused on only 2 people, Lommy and Huey (those who made the 2nd vote for either Greenie/Huey). Why do you ignore the 1st votes for Greenie or Huey? I'm not buying the "1st votes for someone aren't suspicious because it's still creating an alternative and thus the 2nd votes are more suspicious because those votes got a potential bandwagon going."

I mean I see you are the first vote for Greenie, so regardless of your alignment you're not going to suspect y ourself, but what about Morsul being the 1st vote for Huey? Why are the 2nd votes more suspicious than the 1st votes? Because 1 vote a bandwagon does not create, but the first vote for someone still has the potential to start a bandwagon, while also keeping relatively safe from scrutiny if there was a bandwagon.

I'm not sure if Pitch has trademarked it yet, but *ping* (if you have, Pitch, royalties will be sent )

Edit: crossed with Huey's 2nd post
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Old 04-23-2021, 05:04 AM   #129
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post
But I've just remembered the Dead and the Ghost. The wolves know that the Seer's visions won't die with them - they can come back as a Ghost and attempt to convey them with no suspicion of lying. I think that tips the scales: they can't go "we'll kill him toMorrow Night when Sally looks less obvious as the reason", because that's another dream for the Seer that will come back to haunt them. I think they'd go for even a highly risky Seer-kill like Form's would have been for Sally.
hS
That’s an interesting thought I hadn’t really considered the implications of the ghost strategy, and how it affects the wolves’ aggression. This certainly could point in Sally’s direction. But if your follow up is correct(they didn’t feel they were found out) there’s two possibilities;

1. None of the votes are wolves, this is unlikely just based on probability but not impossible.
This would clear Me, Huin, Pitch, Sally, Lottie. I can’t believe that. That would leave five players Boro, Lommie, Legate, Kath, and Sorimon in this crazy unlikely scenario 3/5 of those players are the pack.

2. Far more likely, if they didn’t feel they were found out, it’s likely if they received vote(s) the reasoning behind those votes didn’t trouble them. This requires a must closer scrutiny of votes and reasoning.

Xed Boro
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Old 04-23-2021, 05:15 AM   #130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark View Post
1. None of the votes are wolves, this is unlikely just based on probability but not impossible.
This would clear Me, Huin, Pitch, Sally, Lottie. I can’t believe that. That would leave five players Boro, Lommie, Legate, Kath, and Sorimon in this crazy unlikely scenario 3/5 of those players are the pack.
It's not quite that bad! Sally's voter was killed overNight, so they might have thought him the Seer. Pitch's voter was killed in the lynch, so they knew they weren't. That only leaves three of your "clears", and as you say:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark View Post
2. Far more likely, if they didn’t feel they were found out, it’s likely if they received vote(s) the reasoning behind those votes didn’t trouble them. This requires a must closer scrutiny of votes and reasoning.
I've already said I think you come out looking pretty good. Obviously I'm not unbiased about myself, but I think wolf!Lottie would (or could) have seen Boro's vote as standard Day 1 reasoning-based.

(And since I trimmed the end off a sentence in my last post: this "clear" of Morsul only applies if Sally is innocent!)

hS
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Old 04-23-2021, 05:33 AM   #131
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So looking through the votes and reasonings the oddest one, to me, is Lommie’s vote which happens to overlap with Legate’s look at second votes thought.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post


I do suspect Hui for the bad vibes I'm getting. I'm just second-guessing my suspicion because it is, as I said, only based on "vibes". That's not very much, even for Day1.

As for Morsul, I think his defensiveness is fishy, but especially after seeing Kath's post, I am a little worried about Morsul's claim of always being an easy target becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
++Huinesoron

I don't think anything would make me kick myself more than if I caught a wolfy vibe from him TWICE and let him off the hook because "maybe it's just his playing style" TWICE and he was a wolf BOTH TIMES.


edit: xed with everyone
So while not directly contradictory I do have to say that this stands out to me. Lommy(I’ll decide if it’s Lommy or Lommie at some point not this post.) talks about me accidentally bandwagonning myself, fair enough, but then adds the first second vote based on vibes for Huin. Truth is though while this is odd to me they were pretty consistent on Huin from the start. So that’s a thing.

Edit: just adding I just got called and will be doing a later shift so I might be voting early since I’ll be at work during DL and can’t guarantee I can sneak away. I may or may not have been told to get off my phone Wednesday :rolls eyes:

Last edited by Morsul the Dark; 04-23-2021 at 05:37 AM. Reason: Removed highlight on quotes vote to avoid confusion.
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Old 04-23-2021, 07:11 AM   #132
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Commenting as I read, starting from yesterDay after my bedtime

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
I would agree with this, but we don't have anyone who could qualify as a 'lurker' who I would be willing to vote. It's Soriman's first game, so it's expected that he'll be posting less often as he gets the hang of the game, Sally is usually quieter, especially on Day 1, I've really appreciated Kath's posts when she was here, and I think I'm next up for quantity of posts...
You want to vote for someone with only a few posts, but not Soriman because he is a newbie, not Kath because she's helpful, and not Sally... because she's Sally? I feel like Lottie is letting Sally off the hook a bit too easy here, which could be a wolf conveniently giving a fellow a pass on not particularly legit grounds. If either of Lottie or Sally turns out to be a wolf, I'd have a closer look at the other one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
My memory may be imperfect, but what I remember from playing with Huinwolf was feeling like we were on the same page, he's contributing great stuff, top of my innocent list, and then Legate caught something - a vibe or what, I don't remember - and we voted him out over a very short period of time. I am not getting that same vibe this game. Again, memory may be faulty - it's been a while - but toDay he feels more like the innocent Huin that I've played with before, who is always the first person stirring the pot and poking and prodding people. I'm not saying I trust him fully, just that I don't suspect him, and I think the people who are pushing that suspicion are pulling it a bit out of thin air. It's Day 1 - that's understandable - but you're acting like it's blatantly obvious that he's a wolf and it's bizarre that I'm not on board with that suspicion, when really, there's nothing more to this suspicion than there is to any other suspicion based on zero information. It's really easy to suspect Huin, and I don't know why you're so convinced of his wolfyness based on, from my perspective, not a ton to back it up.
I did not mean that it was weird that you consider(ed) Huin innocent-seeming or defended him, just that your rather strong language there caught my eye, as well as the fabricated seeming argument based on his performance in previous games. Something about the combo made me think "wolf protecting a fellow she doesn't want to see lynched on Day1".

Side note: based on these two minor points, I would be really tempted to jump into contemplating a Lottie-Sally-Huin pack, but I don't think I've ever made a 100% correct pack prediction on day2 so... But if turns out to be them, then I TOLD YOU SO, ALREADY ON DAY2.

Ok now that I got that off my chest, let's proceed...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
Everybody hates seeing innocents lynched, but somebody will be lynched toDay, and if you don't vote you're just washing your hands. Wolves kill at Night, whether we lynch or not, and lynching is our only way of getting at them. So pick someone and remember, it's all just a game.
Can I have this on my tombstone? (Ok, maybe that's not a good thing to say during a ww game. ) But really, beautifully articulated. I should maybe steal it for my signature. This is exactly why I hate people suggesting - on Day1 or otherwise - not voting as an option. It's just stupid. That being said, RL problems or no, I'm not a fan of Sally's no-vote. If you're an innocent, you should vote. Even if you haven't had the time to properly read through everything. By abstaining from voting, you're giving the wolves' votes proportionately more weight.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
I will also trust my read on Lommy in my last post. It's weak, but every time I read her posts and get the image that she's arguing with herself, like Smeagol/Gollum it's a good sign. I mean it might not be good for her own sanity, but that reaction is hard for someone to fabricate.
Finally, someone who understands me and my struggles!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Morsul
I’ve been consistent on Kath I think her early vote is convenient for a wolf.
Yeah but also the deadline is at midnight for her, so it's not a surprise if she chooses to vote early. Ergo, just "voting early" is not really a very strong grounds for suspecting her.
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Old 04-23-2021, 07:11 AM   #133
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Question Conspiracy Corner with Boro

So Today's conspiracy theory post is centering on Legate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
I am not entirely sure how Boro's comment constitutes as "launching a Day 1s are pointless-debate".

Now Hui seems to be poking around inquisitively overall, which is an activity that by itself can serve both good and evil purposes, so if this is just a part of that, whatever; but the formulation (the not-outright-accusing, yet suggestive "I find it a little suspicious", while putting words into Boro's mouth) does not seem right to me. Even stranger is that Greenie basically repeats the same, which just gives me the vibe of "quoting without checking the source", i.e. having seen Hui slightly suspect Boro and just latch on to that. That would be a very good move for a Wolf to pull.

Overall it's just weird because I don't read it as Boro "launching" any "debate" on "Day 1 pointlessness" in the first place.

Clarifications, anyone?
Now yesterday I took this as a good point in Legate's favor. I wasn't attempting to launch a Day 1 debate and he observed that 2 people (Huey and Greenie) made it sound like I was and were attempting to point suspicion my way.

What is interesting to note here is that Greenie is lynched and now confirmed innocent. Then today...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Under this model, there are lots of singular votes that by themselves do not say much except that they are still creating alternatives (and at the same time are potentially throwaway). Whom I would put under scrutiny are actually the people who made the second votes, thus making the bandwagons roll (Lommy and Hui, with the added value that Hui was acting clearly with the bonus to prevent a wagon against himself - the question of course being that he could have equally well voted for Morsul or Pitch, if it was just about that). Either of them could have acted as Wolves protecting one of Morsul or Pitch (who had votes from before) by supporting bandwagons for somebody else.
So again, Legate narrows the discussion to 2 people (the ones who made the 2nd votes for someone yesterday). Those 2 people are Lommy and Huey. This makes the 2nd time Legate's steering to Huey + someone, but he offers up an extra point in Huey's favor that he was "voting to prevent a bandwagon against himself"

Now if I were to believe in conspiracy theories, it looks like Legate and Huey are packmates.

Huey's driving and getting the suspicions stirring against innocent people. Legate is narrowing in on Huey + 1 other, to softly suspect Huey and fall back on as a wolf-on-wolf vote, but trying to put the attention on the other person (Greenie Day 1 and now Lommy today).

Edit: crossed with Lommy
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Old 04-23-2021, 08:44 AM   #134
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Just noticed this from earlier toDay (emphasis mine):

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
...I didn't mean "giving direction to the ghosts" (as in the person that is selected to return as a ghost) but "giving direction to the dead players on what person they should vote for today as a way of giving the living information."
Um... what information?! They're a pair of ordos! The only information they could have is 1) their own beliefs and 2) some arbitrary piece of data from the Mods, selected from a list we've never seen; it would be literally impossible for us to gain information on that from a single vote. The fact that apparently you looked at that and went 'hmm, I bet people are going to try and construct a scheme to utilise this valuable resource' is just... like, did you forget that you didn't manage to kill the Seer, Borowolf?

With that in mind, I took a look at this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
That's an oddly specific and seems too narrow a net you're casting in your vote-analysis Legate. I agree with the conclusion that you really can't say there was a "bandwagon" with any of the votes yesterday and I also like Day 1s where there is a good spread of who receives votes. A true Day 1 bandwagon, in our small band would have given us little in analyzing Day 1 votes.
I happily accepted the 'narrow net' comment at face value on my first readover, but that's the point of a good wolf misrepresentation: it's close enough to true that people will remember the misdirect better than what it's purportedly summarising. In fact, looking at Legate's post #124, he not only discusses me and Lommy as 'second voters', but also highlights Pitch's vote as "sinister... potentially throwaway", and highlights "the one visibly throwaway" vote as... Boro, noting that it "raises my alertness when it comes to Boro".

So Boro's comment, which reductively summarises Legate's "net" as catching just me and Lommy, doesn't just ignore his comments on Boro - it strongly implies that they didn't exist, and looks very much like a wolfish attempt to memory-hole the suspicion.

The fact that this has now led into a self-titled Legate-hS "conspiracy theory" - didn't Pitch have one of those yesterDay? - does nothing to take away from that impression. (And yes, "if I were to believe in conspiracy theories" is another wonderful way for a wolf!Boro to put an idea out there without quite claiming to believe it... deniability, always deniability.)

hS
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Old 04-23-2021, 09:15 AM   #135
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So far today I suspect Pitch and Boro, plus Sally on procedural grounds (ie, if Form's death was an attempt to get the Seer then Sally is a wolf). It occurs to me that Pitch's late vote was a good way to let Greenie - who could have been a Seer who saw wolf!Pitch - get lynched while making Pitch look like he was trying to stop it.

I semi-clear Morsul on similar procedural grounds - if Sally isn't a wolf, then there's at least two people wolf!Morsul could see as potential Seers.

I was going to look at the other people who've posted today, but only have time for one. Lottie makes some solid points in their early Day 2 discussion with Morsul. Sally sees this as more aggressive than normal, while Boro (#128) "agrees with Sally", but then describes it as "the Lottie I'm most familiar with". I think that inconsistency (ie, is it too aggressive, or normally aggressive?) says more about Boro than it does about Lottie, so I'm not suspicious of Lottie at this time.

Still need to look at Lommy and Legate, and I hope we hear more from Kath and Soriman soon!

hS
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Old 04-23-2021, 09:26 AM   #136
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I have 15 minutes, so I'm going to look at Form's 9 posts:

#5, #44, #48, #52, #58 are mostly grumbling about Day1's. He was perhaps a little baited into this by Boro, and later, by yours truly, AND last by Hui. #52 also includes a joke (I presume) suspicion of me because I'm not finding his Day1 grumbling suspicious (anymore).

#61 argues for Hui's innocence while acknowledging he might be making a terrible mistake. This makes Hui look a bit better to me - I guess the wolves could have interpreted this post as seer!Form defending his known innocent? (I mean obviously Wolfesoron could have also picked Form as a no trace kill, thinking that would make him look good, but that's getting a little convoluted. If Form's death has anything to do with Hui, it's more likely that he's innocent.)

#78 ranks people based on how much they've contributed so far, saying:
Quote:
I'm probably going to vote "too quiet."
Leans towards Sally, saying:
Quote:
On the basis of this very quick list, I would likely aim for either Sally or Kath under this rubric and on the basis of nothing more than gut and the ill-digested remnant's of last year's game, I would lean Sally.

Which, I suppose, is kind of an honour. If I may refer to events of the First Age, time was that folks like Morm or Saucepan would be lynched Day 1 nearly every game "just to make sure" early. So... you're welcome, Sally?
Now this doesn't look like seerish suspicion to me, but whoever said it looks so unseerish maybe Sallywolf thought Formseer was trying to masquarade his suspicion of her as random while it was actually dream-based. Possible, but I'm not sure Sally of all people would be this paranoid as a wolf. She seems more happy go lucky and reckless usually. But yeah, also echoing whoever said that Form's death is one more reason to hope for more presence from Sally toDay. I'm sure I'm not the only one concerned about her flying under the radar, even if she has good RL reasons for her silence.

#84 speculates about a Sally/Lottie wolf combo, but discards his own suspicion

#93, vote post, quoted in full:
Quote:
The deadline is coming up and we don't have a definitive bandwaggon yet... but Hui and Greenie are frontrunners. I don't particularly suspect either, which doesn't help deciding if you should save either. If I wait any longer, a vote for the Lurkers is even worse than a vote now, so...

++Sally
This makes me think the wolves didn't think he was a seer who dreamed of an innocent Hui, unless you apply the same kind of "masquerading your seer dream as casual and lumping your dream target with another player in order to further hide it" logic that I said about a Sallywolf dream earlier. Anyway the wolves couldn't have thought he dreamed of both wolf-Sally and innocent-Hui, anyway.

Conclusions: ...yeah, not much to conclude. Maybe I'm a little more concerned about Sally and a little less concerned about Hui, but I don't think Form was very likely killed as a potential seer based on what he said about other players. I think it was more likely a no trace kill (with the side effect of implicating an innocent Sally? would the wolves make a no trace kill that actually implicates one of their own?) or because Form pinged the wolves' gifted radar for some reason I can't see.


edit: xed with Hui
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Old 04-23-2021, 09:32 AM   #137
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I'm at work, so more like a quick chime in. I should however have considerably more time couple of hours before DL.

Some generic thoughts:

As far as toDay goes, thus far, I am thinking Morsul comes across as genuinely trying to unravel things.

Sally seems to have lots of her thoughts based on "gut feeling", which is something one can't really verify, even though she is a lot more specific in regards to Morsul and Lottie. So that is at least some data - I would however prefer to see more. Her first post toDay came across as genuine, the second one was more all over the place.

Hui is very much active again, I find at least that he is giving things a thought. That said, his speculation about the Ghost and Seer in #127 sounds almost like he's given it too much of a thought, perhaps overNight (and then saying "he just remembered it"). But it may just be a byproduct of thinking things from very many angles, which I would understand.

Lommy's first post toDay seemed rather contentless, although that may be attributed to lack of time. The second one was however pretty analytical, to the point of some complicated constructions of Wolf packs; but she brings up good points about Sally and Lottie.

As for Lottie herself, I can't really make any clear image of her myself, the radar is blurry (and has remained so for a while). She is contributing and seems to bring up constructive points, but with what intent I can't decipher.

I am becoming increasingly unclear, if not suspicious about what Boro is up to, because while yesterDay I overall leaned towards trusting what he was doing, toDay I am increasingly dubious about what his role in everything is. It may be influenced partly by his throwaway vote yesterDay and lastly the conspiracy theory post - I cannot tell whether that is supposed to be a mental exercise or whether he is subtly trying to cast suspicion around. Besides, speaking of that:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
This though is just very narrow and focused on only 2 people, Lommy and Huey (those who made the 2nd vote for either Greenie/Huey). Why do you ignore the 1st votes for Greenie or Huey? I'm not buying the "1st votes for someone aren't suspicious because it's still creating an alternative and thus the 2nd votes are more suspicious because those votes got a potential bandwagon going."

I mean I see you are the first vote for Greenie, so regardless of your alignment you're not going to suspect y ourself, but what about Morsul being the 1st vote for Huey?
I have never said that we should look only at these and disregard all the other votes (and I think a large share of my post was devoted to considering others, Morsul included). And you are right that Morsul started the bandwagon, and I am not contradicting that - even though I daresay that with having already a vote at that point, whether he is a Wolf or innocent, he would have likely acted similarly.

Anyway, typing this took a while as I was called off in the middle a few times - I am going to leave it at this now because I may end up being interrupted for an unknown amount of time any moment again, but as I said, I'll be around later after my work ends. I'd especially like to see Souriman and others who haven't appeared or posted much yet. The "lurkers" should not indeed be just left lurking (even though I think essentially everyone has been posting now).

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy and both Hueys
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Old 04-23-2021, 09:40 AM   #138
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Okay, just as a remark, I see Hui has arrived to similar conclusions and spotting similar inconsistencies regarding Boro. That at least makes me think of genuine thinking on his part. Also Lommy's post looks fairly genuine, the kind of analysis a Wolf would not maybe even bother with in the first place.

Now off.
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Old 04-23-2021, 09:44 AM   #139
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On my lunch, so only a chance to respond to something directly. Will be able to return in 4-ish hours and then around until the DL.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post
Um... what information?! They're a pair of ordos! The only information they could have is 1) their own beliefs and 2) some arbitrary piece of data from the Mods, selected from a list we've never seen; it would be literally impossible for us to gain information on that from a single vote. The fact that apparently you looked at that and went 'hmm, I bet people are going to try and construct a scheme to utilise this valuable resource' is just... like, did you forget that you didn't manage to kill the Seer, Borowolf?
Hmm...am I detecting at "let me distract Boro by trying to create an argument over something that has no bearing on who he suspects or plans to vote for." Thus derailing the day's conversation about Boro saying he would ignore any plans to direct the dead thread vote, instead of actually debating suspects and lynching a wolf today?

I think I do detect an attempted distraction. So, sorry Huey, won't engage in a conversation that looks like you're trying to derail and argue with me about something I said I was going to ignore.

What I will argue about though is Legate's vote analysis:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huey
I happily accepted the 'narrow net' comment at face value on my first readover, but that's the point of a good wolf misrepresentation: it's close enough to true that people will remember the misdirect better than what it's purportedly summarising. In fact, looking at Legate's post #124, he not only discusses me and Lommy as 'second voters', but also highlights Pitch's vote as "sinister... potentially throwaway", and highlights "the one visibly throwaway" vote as... Boro, noting that it "raises my alertness when it comes to Boro".

So Boro's comment, which reductively summarises Legate's "net" as catching just me and Lommy, doesn't just ignore his comments on Boro - it strongly implies that they didn't exist, and looks very much like a wolfish attempt to memory-hole the suspicion.
You're right in that post he mentions my vote as a throwaway as mildly suspicious and Pitch's was "sinister." Not sure I like that comment very much. Pitch's vote is a throwaway in that it wasn't going to change the outcome, Greenie had already reached 3 votes first, but I don't know how that makes it "sinister."

But my "narrow net" comment is about how he waves away the other people who voted for Huey and Greenie. He sort of waves away the 1st votes (his and Morsul) under the "1 vote doesn't make a bandwagon, so the 1st votes were people offering more alternatives." And focuses the scrutiny on the people who made the 2nd votes (Lommy and Huey)...which as noted in my conspiracy post. It's the 2nd time that Legate has seemed to direct the scrutiny on "Huey + one other"

The reason it's a conspiracy is because I think Legate looks the worst out of the two (him and Huey). So, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Legate would simply attach himself to an innocent Huey to keep a smaller list of suspects.

Edit: crossed with Legate twice, have to be away though. Will return in 4ish hours
Edit 2: Changed the 2nd quote, I mistakenly assigned it to Legate. So corrected it to Huey
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Old 04-23-2021, 10:51 AM   #140
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Back from work and catching up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post
How is 'staying with your previous opinions' now a "Legate 180"? Was the implication that he might pull a 180 in the future, er, eight minutes? If so, based on those previous stated opinions - why?
Because earlier I felt you and Morsul were most likely two innocent at odds(see #45) and one or more wolves might be fanning the flames. My speculations about the chances of your being a wolf were concerned with posts by others about you (as in the infamous case of Legate's temporary amnesia, or what Kath said about wolf-on-wolf between you and Morsul) rather than your own, which I didn't find very suspicious - so voting you was a "Legate 180" on my part, as in: a sudden turn manœuver named after him because he has it copyrighted, like Lommy for flip-flopping and the phantom for grand schemes.

As for Greenie, that part wasn't 180 - I wasn't happy with her voting me, but otherwise by the end of the Day I was willing to bet she was innocent.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post
In context (the "anyone else?" from the previous quote), this seems very like frustration that Sally hadn't voted for me. In which case, if the previous quote indicates that Pitch has or might "Legate 180" between me and Greenie - why this exasperation at someone not enabling my lynch over Greenie's? It seems out of proportion with Pitch's indicated uncertainty/wavering.
It was primarily frustration that she hadn't voted for anybody, but truth is I felt more confident that Greenie was innocent than I felt about you, and I'd have liked to save her, so yes, it was also frustration that the cavalry was failing to show up and my own vote ended up being effectively throwaway. If the choice had been between you and somebody else my vote might have been different.
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Old 04-23-2021, 11:32 AM   #141
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Grrrr. Things keep popping up at work today, and it's my last day before I'm out for a week, so I'm horrendously busy. The good news is I will be around pretty steadily once today is over. The bad news is I will probably have to vote early because I don't want to forget again.
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Old 04-23-2021, 11:35 AM   #142
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Speaking of turns (although this is rather a quicksandy shift):
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie #63
I don't want to vote for Huin, Greenie, or Pitch, all three of whom are people who've drawn votes and attention so far toDay. I might be willing to vote Morsul, but frankly, I think it's just as likely he's innocent as a wolf, so I don't love that option, either. Hopefully something changes before DL…
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie #95, the vote post
Okay, it's getting towards the deadline, and I'm still struggling a bit with this one. I would honestly prefer to vote Morsul or Pitch, but I don't know who all is still around to vote, so I'm probably going to go with one of the two candidates who've received multiple votes, at least in part to make sure it's less likely a sudden bandwagon on Boro's vote leaves me all alone in the Dead Thread (). I've been back and forth on Greenie all Day, but I suspect her more than I suspect Huin.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie 113
First to reach the tie wins it, and I knew there were very few people left to vote (myself, Pitch, and Soriman and Sally, who were unlikely to vote at all). I wasn't very afraid for my own life in this game, because I didn't think Sally or Soriman would vote for me, but you never know.
So, Lottie would have liked to vote two of the four people she'd earlier said she didn't want to vote, but with no support forthcoming, she ended up voting a third of the same four people because she suspected her more than the fourth. What happened?



Also, Lottie, since you didn't think sally or Sori would vote at all, if you were concerned for your own life you could have voted me (not that that would have been any better), and by the Rule of First you would have been safe. So whom were you really trying to save, yourself or Hui?
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Old 04-23-2021, 11:48 AM   #143
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What some people seem to forget about Pitch and I is that we were packmates in the last game, so I feel like I have a pretty good read on him solely based on that. Besides, and innocent Pitch would be aggravated by someone no voting, while this would obviously have benefited a wolf Pitch because he knew one of Greenie or Hui would die, and if he were a wolf with Hui, he wouldn't have pitched (har har) him for lynching in the first place.
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Old 04-23-2021, 11:49 AM   #144
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Also, Pitch is making some great points about Lottie in his post above mine. I'm very comfortable voting Lottie today, though I'll still wait to see if something else comes out of the woodwork.
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Old 04-23-2021, 12:02 PM   #145
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So this is flimsy but I’ll toss it out there Lottie gave me a hard time for not having reads on two people but in Post 123 gave Sally a pass for the like four people she had no read on in her list.

This with her saving Hui

My very flimsy theory entirely contingent on WolfLottie is Sally Lottie Huin pack

Xed Sallyx2
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Old 04-23-2021, 12:09 PM   #146
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I have had less time than expected so am just catching up!

Initial thoughts based on the end of yesterDay and the kill overNight are kind of summed up by a comment from Pitch yesterDay.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Everybody hates seeing innocents lynched, but somebody will be lynched toDay, and if you don't vote you're just washing your hands. Wolves kill at Night, whether we lynch or not, and lynching is our only way of getting at them. So pick someone and remember, it's all just a game.
Well said, and with that in mind the person who immediately springs to mind is sally. I know Soriman also didn't vote, but they seem to have missed the voting rather than chosen not to vote.

Kath --> Morsul
Greenie --> Pitch
Morsul --> Hui
Lommy --> Hui
Legate --> Greenie
Hui --> Greenie
Form --> sally
Boro --> Lottie
Lottie --> Greenie
sally --> no one
Pitch --> Hui

Soriman missed the voting

Choosing not to vote helps no one but the wolves, because it leaves no voting record. With Greenie on 3 and Hui on 2 it was a pretty vital moment and any vote would have been better information for toDay than no vote.

Then the kill. The wolves have to aim for the Seer, they can't afford not to. So either they saw something Seer-ish in Form, or they thought he'd dreamt of one of them. He voted for sally out of quite a few 'lurker' options he was thinking about, so even if killing him points toward a sally-wolf, the pack may have thought that getting potential Form-Seer out of the way early on was worth the risk.

Posting this then reading through toDay.
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Old 04-23-2021, 12:12 PM   #147
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Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post
Um... what information?! They're a pair of ordos! The only information they could have is 1) their own beliefs and 2) some arbitrary piece of data from the Mods, selected from a list we've never seen; it would be literally impossible for us to gain information on that from a single vote. The fact that apparently you looked at that and went 'hmm, I bet people are going to try and construct a scheme to utilise this valuable resource' is just... like, did you forget that you didn't manage to kill the Seer, Borowolf?
Exactly, it's useless, so we shouldn't waste any time trying to milk the Dead for info rather than try to catch wolves. (Does the name Macalaure mean anyting to you?) Isn't that just what Boro said?
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Old 04-23-2021, 12:33 PM   #148
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Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
You want to vote for someone with only a few posts, but not Soriman because he is a newbie, not Kath because she's helpful, and not Sally... because she's Sally? I feel like Lottie is letting Sally off the hook a bit too easy here, which could be a wolf conveniently giving a fellow a pass on not particularly legit grounds. If either of Lottie or Sally turns out to be a wolf, I'd have a closer look at the other one.
If we voted Sally for being quiet on Day 1 every time it happens, Sally would never make it past Day 1 unless it conveniently fell on a weekend. I don't think it's fair to vote someone for something out of their control, especially because we know Sally does get more talkative later in the game and when she's not as busy. I would be willing to vote a "lurker" if it's someone who isn't posting much or is sticking to banter or whatnot even though they are clearly around and keeping up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark View Post
So this is flimsy but I’ll toss it out there Lottie gave me a hard time for not having reads on two people but in Post 123 gave Sally a pass for the like four people she had no read on in her list.

This with her saving Hui

My very flimsy theory entirely contingent on WolfLottie is Sally Lottie Huin pack
No offense, but if I was packmates with Huin and Sally, I would never be that blatant about not wanting either of them to be lynched! I didn't comment on Sally's list at all, I didn't "give her a pass", I just didn't comment on it. I don't have to comment on every list post that doesn't have strong feelings about people. Yours stood out to me because the two people you didn't have strong feelings about were people who had posted a lot, and you had stronger feelings about quieter people, which struck me as odd.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Speaking of turns (although this is rather a quicksandy shift):

So, Lottie would have liked to vote two of the four people she'd earlier said she didn't want to vote, but with no support forthcoming, she ended up voting a third of the same four people because she suspected her more than the fourth. What happened?
Let me explain what happened using your own words:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
It was primarily frustration that she hadn't voted for anybody, but truth is I felt more confident that Greenie was innocent than I felt about you, and I'd have liked to save her, so yes, it was also frustration that the cavalry was failing to show up and my own vote ended up being effectively throwaway. If the choice had been between you and somebody else my vote might have been different.
I felt more confident about Huin than I did about Greenie. I strongly suspect both of them were/are innocent, and the wolves were sitting back breathing a sigh of relief. Obviously I could be wrong about Huin, but we were in exactly the same situation - we slightly trusted one over the other - I just got my vote in first. If you'd voted first, I would have been sitting there waiting for the cavalry.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Also, Lottie, since you didn't think sally or Sori would vote at all, if you were concerned for your own life you could have voted me (not that that would have been any better), and by the Rule of First you would have been safe. So whom were you really trying to save, yourself or Hui?
Huin, obviously. I also wanted to vote early to ensure I would be safe, regardless of any last minute bandwagon, but the primary motivation was that I trusted Huin slightly more than Greenie. I am genuinely surprised you're the one harping on this, Pitch - the two of us were in exactly the same boat, we only differed by which person we slightly trusted more.
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Old 04-23-2021, 01:04 PM   #149
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I’ll be around for about 45 minutes on lunch break. I might be forced to vote at the end since it is quite busy. I hate voting early.

Lottie and Sally are my top choices Lottie for her vote and behavior as outlined before. Sally for decided no vote along with Form’s night kill.

Huin is next but a far third mostly based on Lottie’s vote which is out of their control so not solid.

I feel like we’d get more information from a LottieWolf than a SallyWolf
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Old 04-23-2021, 01:15 PM   #150
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I haven't made it to toDay yet as I forgot how much I missed between voting and deadline yesterDay! Standing out to me from that is Hui.

As I read, it struck me that a lot of Hui's suspicion of Greenie was based on her seemingly taking other people suspicions and reiterating them. But in terms of Hui's suspicion of Greenie, they first agree with Legate that Greenie's comment about 'Boro launching the Day 1s are pointless debate' was overstating it and then use Legate's reasons against Greenie again to further suspect Greenie. So ... pot/kettle? Then we get:
Quote:
Greenie is back, and what earlier looked like buddying-up now comes over as fairly considering each person's points.
Which seems to suggest Hui was then feeling better about Greenie, but then followed by Hui saying Greenie worrying about possibly not being alive the next Day smacked of a guilty conscience. I have to disagree with that. She was being talked about a fair amount, and I think that's a fear anybody has in WW.

Actually all the way through yesterDay Hui seems to be sort of following Legate's lead. Even in post #70 Legate suggests Greenie as a vote and Hui then suggests that would be a vote they'd be comfortable with.

I don't know that I'm saying there's a Legate/Hui wolf-pack here, but it struck me as odd.
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Old 04-23-2021, 01:15 PM   #151
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark View Post
I feel like we’d get more information from a LottieWolf than a SallyWolf
If there was a LottieWolf, maybe. I am not a wolf. You will get no information from lynching me, and the people who are spending the whole Day barking up this tree are giving the wolves perfect cover in which to operate. Please, just look at one (1) other person toDay. The village doesn’t benefit from wasting the whole day suspecting the same (innocent, believe it or not) person.
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Old 04-23-2021, 01:16 PM   #152
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I'm definitely not posting this while on a conference call.

I don't want to vote super early, but the more Lottie talks, the more suspicious I'm finding her. Not that she doesn't make sense, but she seems more....touchy, though of course not in a mean way, just a suspicious way.

I'll be back over a break, at which point I'll have to vote. I'm working late tonight to make up for being gone next week, so I won't be able to be on again until after deadline.

Edit: x'd with Pop
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Old 04-23-2021, 01:21 PM   #153
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I don't want to vote super early, but the more Lottie talks, the more suspicious I'm finding her. Not that she doesn't make sense, but she seems more....touchy, though of course not in a mean way, just a suspicious way.
Well, yes. Several people have said nothing all Day except that I seem suspicious. I am getting tired of that - look at other options! My vote stands out because it was the deciding one. Well, if Pitch had voted before me and Huin had turned out to be innocent, maybe my vote would have been the throwaway vote and his would have been the one that saved Greenie and you all would think Pitch and Greenie were packmates. That's just the position we were both in at the end of yesterDay, because people didn't vote, and I strongly suspect two innocents were the ones most likely to go home. I made a decision. I didn't especially suspect Greenie, but I chose to keep Huin, and now you and Morsul are all but refusing to look at anyone else because of it. It is frustrating, and I am a bit touchy at this point. I'm not a wolf, and I really, really wish you guys would spend more time looking for wolves than just reiterating that you suspect me. I get it, I do, but please don't just let the wolves skate by completely unnoticed because you can't stop talking about me!
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Old 04-23-2021, 01:25 PM   #154
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
If there was a LottieWolf, maybe. I am not a wolf. You will get no information from lynching me, and the people who are spending the whole Day barking up this tree are giving the wolves perfect cover in which to operate. Please, just look at one (1) other person toDay. The village doesn’t benefit from wasting the whole day suspecting the same (innocent, believe it or not) person.
I feel this. Definitely has frustrated ordo vibes. Also could be frustrated at saving a pack mate just to be thrown under the bus by other wolves. I don’t think there’s been a lack of suspects today.

Sally and Huin are on my radar. Legate is on others pitch features in others.
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Old 04-23-2021, 01:31 PM   #155
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Alright, back for the rest of the day. I haven't read any posts after my last one #139 yet, I wanted to expand more on my suspicions about Legate's vote analysis post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
I have never said that we should look only at these and disregard all the other votes (and I think a large share of my post was devoted to considering others, Morsul included). And you are right that Morsul started the bandwagon, and I am not contradicting that - even though I daresay that with having already a vote at that point, whether he is a Wolf or innocent, he would have likely acted similarly.
True and I never claimed otherwise. 6 people voted for Greenie and Huey yesterday...in order it was:

Morsul > Huey
Lommy > Huey (2)
Legate > Greenie
Huey > Greenie (2)
Lottie > Greenie (3)
Pitch > Huey (3)

It's also true that you considered Morsul being the first to vote for Huey, but to me, you very clearly wanted to put the attention to those who cast the 2nd votes (Huey and Lommy)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Under this model, there are lots of singular votes that by themselves do not say much except that they are still creating alternatives (and at the same time are potentially throwaway). Whom I would put under scrutiny are actually the people who made the second votes, thus making the bandwagons roll (Lommy and Hui, with the added value that Hui was acting clearly with the bonus to prevent a wagon against himself - the question of course being that he could have equally well voted for Morsul or Pitch, if it was just about that). Either of them could have acted as Wolves protecting one of Morsul or Pitch (who had votes from before) by supporting bandwagons for somebody else.
(Bolding my emphasis)

And my argument is, a single vote a bandwagon does not make, but a single vote has the same potential to start a bandwagon. What I mean is with Lottie's vote yesterday:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
Okay, it's getting towards the deadline, and I'm still struggling a bit with this one. I would honestly prefer to vote Morsul or Pitch, but I don't know who all is still around to vote, so I'm probably going to go with one of the two candidates who've received multiple votes, at least in part to make sure it's less likely a sudden bandwagon on Boro's vote leaves me all alone in the Dead Thread ().
My first reaction is why is Lottie nervous about acquiring a single vote (mine)? But she's right and it's a good point to consider when looking at votes. At that time Huey and Greenie had 2, with 3 others (not including Lottie) left to vote my vote had the same potential to start a bandwagon, as did anyone else who made the first vote for someone else.

If you want to call my vote a throwaway, I can see that being the case for people who don't know my alignment. I still would beg to disagree. It was Lottie's and Pitch's vote that made mine a "throwaway." I was pretty clear throughout the day I was more worried about Lottie and voted that way. Lottie herself admitted there was the possibility that she could be bandwagon lynched. So, in my opinion, to call my vote a "throwaway" is inaccurate, it's only a throwaway because Lottie's, Pitch's votes, plus sally's and Soriman not voting made it a throwaway.

Now I did make a mistake in not recognizing Legate's comments on Pitch's vote:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Interestingly enough, purely based on vibe when looking at the list of votes, Pitch's vote strikes me as rather sinister because he had his opinions, then voted for Hui. And that was at the point when Greenie was leading, and Soriman was left to vote (with it not being sure whether he will). So Pitch's vote was potentially throwaway (if e.g. again the scenario that Hui was a Wolf was true - he would no longer endanger a packmate and at the same time distance himself from him) and at the same time not getting his "hands dirty" in lynching an innocent.
I chalked this up to perhaps being a language barrier difference, because I agreed with your overall conclusion that Pitch's vote was a throwaway and looks like "keeping record clean" when Greenie is revealed innocent. I didn't register Legate categorizing Pitch's vote as sinister until Huey brought it up in his post #134.

It may very well be a language barrier thing, but if anything Lottie's vote is the sinister one and Pitch's is the "safe throwaway." What I mean is this:

I don't know Pitch's alignment and I don't know Huey's alignment, we all know Greenie is innocent. If Pitch is a wolf in this scenario, he would know even casting a 3rd vote for Huey the innocent-Greenie would still be lynched, thus it's safe and "keeps his record clean."

That is the case, if I go with the assumption Pitch is a wolf. The problem with just going by that assumption is I don't know Pitch's alignment, and I don't know Huey's alignment. I do now know Greenie's alignment, therefor of the voters who brought Greenie and Huey to 3, the more suspicious vote is Lottie's being the vote that lynched a known innocent.

I'd be even wary of classifying Lottie's vote as "sinister" because that would suggest I know Lottie's a wolf and thus was motivated to get Greenie lynched. But currently as far as I know, Pitch is an unknown alignment, and Huey is an unknown alignment, so I don't know how his vote for someone's alignment I do not know should be classified as evil.

Ok, will read and catch up on the posts I missed.
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Old 04-23-2021, 01:33 PM   #156
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Ok, this will probably bite me if it’s wrong, I feel Lottie is a highly frustrated Ordo based on her last post. And I’ve been there. And since I can’t guarantee I’ll be back before DL

++Sally

Not only is she my second in line suspect if she is a wolf and I help her bandwagon an Ordo that won’t do anyone any good.

Lottie I really hope your an Ordo. Otherwise you get an Oscar

Xed Boro

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Old 04-23-2021, 01:43 PM   #157
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Well I didn't expect that. Fair. I mean, wrong, but fair.

I can't do much else toDay. I need to vote.

++Lottie
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Old 04-23-2021, 01:48 PM   #158
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Actually, I have a question for Pitch. At what point yesterDay did you realize that the first one of the two of us to vote would probably decide the lynch? Was it before or after I voted? You seemed like you didn't realize it until Sally no-voted, but I realized after Boro's vote. Were you really not aware that you had the power to decide who went to the Dead Thread? If you felt that Greenie was more trustworthy than Huin, knowing that the first vote wins in case of a tie, why didn't you vote earlier? Why did you wait and let me make the choice, then bemoan your lack of power after the fact?
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Old 04-23-2021, 02:03 PM   #159
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Please, just look at one (1) other person toDay. The village doesn’t benefit from wasting the whole day suspecting the same (innocent, believe it or not) person.
Duly noted.

I'm just going through Formy's posts and loved this so much I had to rep him for it:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Formendacil
That doesn't mean that someone can't luck into a correct answer, but WW is an ever-escalating game of "normally I zig, so I need to zag" and "XXXX seems suspicious, but they always seem suspicious, but it's suspicious that I usually end up not thinking they're suspicious, and it's suspicious that they're aren't suspicious, and even more suspicious that they're a little bit suspicious rather than exact enough suspicious."
To which I'd add "X doesn't suspect me, does that mean they're an innocent who has a good read on me or a wolf trying to buddy up to me? I don't really suspect them either, does that mean I should? If I don't suspect them, is it just because they don't suspect me? But I'm actually innocent, so if they don't suspect me that's OK, isn't it?" - Boro and sally, this is about you.

Anyway. Reason I went through Form's posts is this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath #146
The wolves have to aim for the Seer, they can't afford not to. So either they saw something Seer-ish in Form, or they thought he'd dreamt of one of them. He voted for sally out of quite a few 'lurker' options he was thinking about, so even if killing him points toward a sally-wolf, the pack may have thought that getting potential Form-Seer out of the way early on was worth the risk.
And I don't see it. I think he made it pretty clear that he was channeling Nogrod and hunting submarines. He singled out Kath, sally and Sori a 'Quiet' (#78), gave Kath a pass as 'not bad for Kath' and Sori for being a newbie, and sally was left. Seriously, if I were a wolf in sally's place I don't know that I would have panicked enough to think him the Seer and kill him, or if I did I hope my packmates would have talked me out of it.

So I think this is much more likely to be a no-trace kill (the second-best thing if you can't kill the Seer, and if you can use it to frame an innocent, so much the better.)

But then again, this also means there was nobody else the wolves thought more likely to be the Seer (as I don't remember who and am too lazy to check said before me). This could speak for Hui's innocence (as I think Morsul noted). But if the wolves (or most of them) felt safe yesterDay we should look at those who didn't get any votes:
Boro
Kath
Legate
Lommy
Soriman
Which is half the remaining village, and I think it's highly likely there's at least one wolf among them.
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Old 04-23-2021, 02:10 PM   #160
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
Well, yes. Several people have said nothing all Day except that I seem suspicious. I am getting tired of that - look at other options! My vote stands out because it was the deciding one.
This is true. I feel like I've made some good points about Legate and so far I think only Legate himself and Huey have responded to it.

I'm wary if I continue then I'll just be tunnel visioned on Legate and thus my day is stuck on 1 person. If I had to vote right this moment it would be for Legate, and I would definitely love to hear what other people think about this? (Morsul? Sally? If you're able to come back at some point in the day...Lottie? Pitch? Kath? Soriman - where are you?)
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