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Old 04-21-2021, 01:28 PM   #41
Morsul the Dark
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath View Post
Not enough info:
Form
Lottie
Soriman
sally
- with a caveat that hiding a wolfy nature under a Cobbler style first post is absolutely a sally way to play the game

Everyone else ... the particular questions I had in my last post point me towards Hui, Morsul and potentially Legate as lines of suspicion.

Hui's latest post (#32) is interesting. Half saying to discount the interplay with Morsul because a bigger deal is being made than it deserved, but then actually continuing the same interplay within said post. I do think though it's unlikely Hui and Morsul are both wolves here - I feel that Hui's playing style would mean they'd have no qualms about throwing another wolf under the bus, and that the suspicion of Morsul is almost too half-hearted by this post for it to be a wolf-Hui doing that. I find Morsul's switch from Hui being least suspicious to potentially wolfy (post 19) more worrisome, particularly because the original statement of being least suspicious didn't seem to have any basis behind it.

So, an early vote from me toDay for the reasons stated above for:

++MORSUL]

My switch is outlined in the post. I considered the first question genuine(not suspicious) considered continued attack of that question suspicious. It’s not deeper.

I’ve been at work so can only really scan and answer posts directed at me specifically. But that’s fine. I’ll look into everyone else before DL.

Last edited by Morsul the Dark; 04-21-2021 at 03:12 PM. Reason: Removed highlighted vote to avoid mod vote count confusion.
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Old 04-21-2021, 01:29 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
I don't know why that would be considered strange? I mean isn't it a natural tendency to focus on the person accusing and asking you direct questions?
Sure, but to the exclusion of all else? And with somewhat dramatic shifts in opinion (that were strongly stated for being based on not much to begin with? Like I said, it could be an ordoMorsul with tunnel vision, or it could be a wolfMorsul trying to invent suspicions. The one scenario I don’t think is likely is both of them being wolves - and the interactions from Morsul to Huin look more targeted than the other way around, so I’m more able to draw conclusions about Morsul then I am about Huin, who has been very active on a number of fronts so far.
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Last edited by Loslote; 04-21-2021 at 01:30 PM. Reason: Xed with Morsul and Soriman
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Old 04-21-2021, 01:50 PM   #43
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Not sure what to post about anyone else since most are just neutral posts on everyone and then Huin and Morsul are weird right? But Morsul is weirder. I called it earlier I’m an easy bandwagon and I don’t even understand how I was supposed to act to avoid being thrown under the bus. There seems to be a lot of emphasis on me becoming suddenly suspicious when I actually say why. Which also contained why I was least suspicious. (First time felt genuine((least suspicious)) kept poking((more suspicious)))

No this doesn’t feel right to me. The argument Lommie is the first one I see that makes the argument that I’m suspicious because I’m touchy(a phrase oft repeated here). Which feels like getting poked over and over and reacting and everyone goes “See why would they react?”

Kath gets a vote in early which I’m sure is based on everyone having wildly different time zones but is also an easy defense if I am killed and proven innocent.

Boro seems to see through this nonsense but annoyingly that helps if he is a wolf since he can then say “told you so”

I dunno. If Huin is a wolf then well played that was an excellent orchestration of events.

Don’t know who I’m voting. Probably Huin but I’m not set in stone on that.
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Old 04-21-2021, 01:59 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
Huh...interesting. Formendacil asked a rhetorical question about what else is there to say on Day 1. I gave a factual answer, being familiar with Formendacil, who will likely do everything in his power today to look for a reason to vote for no one today. That's not a subject of debate, it's a fact. He will make some sort of justification why he won't vote for anyone today.
I was going to argue all this, but... I mean, that's kind of true. I would say to look up my behavious in the Days 1 of Games Previous, but that's bad form.

"Won't" vote for anyone is a bit of a strong way of stating of my position, but it's not the most inaccurate thing ever. I believe everyone should have to leave a record--a voting record--from Day 1; I just don't think that it means anything intelligible until there's some hindsight to give it context.

But why are we relitigating my Day 1-antipathy?! Nog isn't even here!

Honestly, I'm mostly posting this because I'll look like a deliberate lurker going to reply to my beloved Books forum threads if I say nothing here. But there really is nothing to say.
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Old 04-21-2021, 02:02 PM   #45
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Thing is, I've seen this kind of mutual suspicion between Hui and Morsul before, and watched it happily as a wolf munching popcorn. Hui is always pushy-pokey, and Morsul is always a bit of a wild card, as well as an easy target, like he said himself. It's an explosive mixture. Right now I'm leaning towards seeing them both as innocent.


Also, I'm puzzled by this from Kath:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath #37
I do think though it's unlikely Hui and Morsul are both wolves here - I feel that Hui's playing style would mean they'd have no qualms about throwing another wolf under the bus, and that the suspicion of Morsul is almost too half-hearted by this post for it to be a wolf-Hui doing that.
So you're saying that
- it's unlikely they're both wolves
- Hui can't be a wolf because he isn't trying hard enough to bus Morsul

- therefore Morsul must be a wolf?
I'm not sure I follow this reasoning. It seems to presuppose that one of them has to be a wolf, which I find questionable. And wouldn't the very half-heartedness of Hui's suspicion rather suggest wolf-on-wolf than not? Or are you really saying that a Huiwolf would try harder to bus a packmate on D1? There's being fine with bussing, and there's pushing it without need - big difference.
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Old 04-21-2021, 02:11 PM   #46
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Boro has posed another question of the 'you say this is bad/strange, but what if actually it's not?' structure, so I'm happy to put his original version re: debates down to playstyle. Not high on my suspects list at this point.

I'm sensing a bit of a Morsul focus forming... Lommy highlighting it as one of the few suspicious things, Kath echoing this and adding a vote, Lottie spending most of her last two posts on it. Not a wagon per se, but a wolf in there could be pushing for one.

But then again, each time Morsul posts I'm split between thinking 'wounded innocent' and 'cornered wolf'. Mostly they sound very genuinely fed up at being unfairly suspected, but then we get:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Morsul
I don’t even understand how I was supposed to act to avoid being thrown under the bus.
Like... if you're innocent, I don't think you go around implying you're putting on an act (or that you think you should have, which is another possible reading). The "next time I'll lie" post from earlier shows the same not-very-innocent-seeming thought process.

Of the other people now around, I think Pitch looks innocent and sensible, but I'm pretty sure I always do and occasionally get bitten for it. Kath's comments also look like genuine innocent musings - her note on Greenie's comments on Legate, for instance.

Below that, nothing concrete: Lottie feels fine, Lommy is giving me undefined uneasiness, and it's nice to see Soriman but there's not much to say about them.

I also haven't gotten over my suspicion of Greenie's tagging onto suspicions (I know someone else commented on this but can't find who), but without any more appearances I can't really add to that.

hS
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Old 04-21-2021, 02:12 PM   #47
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Commenting as I go

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron
I like Lommy's implied point that 'the noisy people all look suspicious' is fairly standard TiG material while the quieter people slip by undiscussed. Not sure what to do about it, but I like it.
Well, that is a statement worthy of a captain obvious of movie!Legolas's calibre.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
I'm not quite sure what I'm saying. Something like, if a Legwolf thinks Huiwolf is behaving typically Huiwolvish he may want to pretend bad memory as an excuse for not picking it up. It's not an argument that they must be wolves together, but I think it would kind of make sense psychologically.
"I'm not quite sure what I'm saying" screamed honest innocent to me, but the convoulted argumentation that follows does not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
It is a little strange how much Morsul was focusing on Huin early, to the almost complete exclusion of anyone else. In fact, I don't think Morsul has interacted with or mentioned anyone other than Huin, with his throwaway comment about Boro posting first being the exception that proves the rule. I don't know what to make of it. It's not a great strategy if they're packmates, and he switches between suspicion and trust so quickly that it doesn't suggest any special knowledge - if I had to guess, I would say Morsul is either a wolf and Huin isn't, or Morsul is an ordo with a bit of tunnel vision. Definitely the most suspicious thing to happen thus far, although I acknowledge that that's a low bar to clear at this point in the game.
Tunnel vision is also a fairly convenient strategy for a wolf - if you pick up an innocent as your target, you can keep at it until they die and can meanwhile ignore mentioning your packmates and leaving traces, then wehn the innocent dies you just have to publicly sprinkle ash on yourself for being wrong. That being said, I don't think Morsul fixating on Hui during Day1 when there was little to go on counts as tunnel vision yet, innocent or otherwise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath
I do think though it's unlikely Hui and Morsul are both wolves here - I feel that Hui's playing style would mean they'd have no qualms about throwing another wolf under the bus, and that the suspicion of Morsul is almost too half-hearted by this post for it to be a wolf-Hui doing that.
I don't see a Hui-Morsul duo as particularly likely either, but I disagree with the latter half of what you're saying: how could Hui's suspicion of Morsul not be half-hearted? It's Day1. There's really not very much to go on. Even for a wolf grasping at straws and trying to bus/incriminate their fellow.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
So she suspects Hui because of bad vibes but not really, and Morsul for being touchy, a bit more really but then again... Seeing how Hui and Morsul suspecting each other had been most of the action so far, this feels to me much like a wolf thinking, "Hmm, either of these could become a promising bandwagon but let's not commit just yet."
I do suspect Hui for the bad vibes I'm getting. I'm just second-guessing my suspicion because it is, as I said, only based on "vibes". That's not very much, even for Day1.

As for Morsul, I think his defensiveness is fishy, but especially after seeing Kath's post, I am a little worried about Morsul's claim of always being an easy target becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

But then again, they are - alongside with you, Pitch - the people who caught my attention, so what can you do? *throws hands in the air*

Of the later-comers, Kath gives me an innocent vibe but I'm wary of her argumentation and her Morsul vote, and Lottie's commentary on Morsul's tunnel vision seems to be turning into tunnel vision from her part. Which also seems somehow... convenient.

Ah, Form. His anti-Day1 attitude always makes me want to vote for him on Day1. I refuse to give him a pass for reffusing to participate on Day1 just because he doesn't like Day1s. I am aware he does this as both innocent and wolf but it pushes my buttons every time! Like, if you're a wolf, that's not fair play! And if you're innocent stop being silly, we need your contribution! *taking deep breaths in order not to get worked up by this*
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Old 04-21-2021, 02:24 PM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
Ah, Form. His anti-Day1 attitude always makes me want to vote for him on Day1. I refuse to give him a pass for reffusing to participate on Day1 just because he doesn't like Day1s. I am aware he does this as both innocent and wolf but it pushes my buttons every time! Like, if you're a wolf, that's not fair play! And if you're innocent stop being silly, we need your contribution! *taking deep breaths in order not to get worked up by this*
At the risk of posting again--this isn't failure to participate. I inevitably (LIKE THIS VERY POST) end up participating, but since the participation is all about how the participation doesn't register until after the day has produced results, I get unfairly dinged for saying things by people complaining that I DON'T say things, when other people actually lurk through the entire Day 1 (maybe not even voting). And, since I think it's bad to deliberately lurk--I'm caught between a rock and a hard place here, I know--I end up responding to the Day 1-talk provocation.

Well, here were are again, then. Since it's human nature to always be fighting the last war (or last week's headlines), I suppose I am deeply suspicious of the lurkers and only mildly concerned about anyone who's posting. Perhaps I should take that mentality and say that I'll vote for whomever the most silent Day 1 person is.
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Old 04-21-2021, 02:26 PM   #49
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A List

Not particularly suspicious of so far
Boro, Greenie, Legate - all seem like their usual selves and have participated without doing anything shady that would have caught my attention (yet), would not vote for them based on what I've seen so far

Flip flop
Kath - my gut is saying innocent, my reason is telling me to keep an eye on her
Morsul - he is rather defensive, but his last post looks better to me. I'm hesitant to suspect him because it seems so knee-jerk

Vaguely suspicious so far
Form - for hiding behind Day1s being futile
Hui - mostly a gut-feeling, something about him seems off
Lottie - for the Morsul tunnel vision after criticising Morsul's tunnel vision
Pitch - his continued "Wolfate is pretending not to remember Wolfesoron's last wolf game" argument just seems odd and convoluted to me, otherwise hard to say

Needs to post more (substance)
Form (yes he's in two places, he deserves it for triggering me about Day1s )
Sally
Soriman


edit: xed with Form, and feeling much better about him. Maybe because he sounds a little apologetic
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Old 04-21-2021, 02:30 PM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
, I am a little worried about Morsul's claim of always being an easy target becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
*
Let me get some Ghost Practice just a Tolkien quotes right?

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Old 04-21-2021, 02:33 PM   #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
I could see Pitch's somewhat contra-intuitive suggestion of a Legate-Huinesoron pack as a wolf tripping over his feet to fabricate a wolf pack accusation. Perhaps especially if one of Legate and Huinesoron was his packmate actually. Or maybe they're Plot Twist all wolves together?
I find the exchange between Lommy and Pitch interesting. Lommy makes a plausible argument against Pitch here (discounting the Plot Twist which, while hilarious if actually true, seems somewhat unlikely ). Meanwhile, Pitch explains himself as follows -

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
I'm not quite sure what I'm saying. Something like, if a Legwolf thinks Huiwolf is behaving typically Huiwolvish he may want to pretend bad memory as an excuse for not picking it up. It's not an argument that they must be wolves together, but I think it would kind of make sense psychologically.
I do like the honesty here - even if it doesn't necessarily say anything about his alignment. What's more interesting is that in his next post, he switches his focus on to Lommy -

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
Actually, mind you, I'm not convinced that either of Legate and Hui has to be a wolf. So far I'm more suspicious of Lommy because of #24:

[...]

So she suspects Hui because of bad vibes but not really, and Morsul for being touchy, a bit more really but then again... Seeing how Hui and Morsul suspecting each other had been most of the action so far, this feels to me much like a wolf thinking, "Hmm, either of these could become a promising bandwagon but let's not commit just yet."
Again, the point itself is reasonable enough (at least by Day 1 standards) but the timing is curious. He doesn't make an explicit link between Lommy suspecting him and himself then suspecting Lommy, and perhaps it's genuinely a coincidence; but all the same, it does look a lot like turning to suspect the person who suspects you without explicitly appearing to do so. This makes me feel more uneasy about Pitch, but says nothing of whether Lommy would then be an innocent bystander or a co-conspirator.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath
Greenie - mentions Hui seems ok and Legate tends to be more abrasive when innocent. Not sure if she's meaning he is abrasive at the moment and therefore innocent, or that if he was innocent she'd expect to see him act more abrasively (post 28).
This was badly phrased on my part. I meant the former - I think Legate has been his more abrasive self so far, which makes me lean rather innocent than not on him so far. In general, I really like what I've seen of Kath - she brings up several shrewd points about what's been going on. Especially the following two -
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath
Legate - not liking the way Hui is behaving but more concerned about Greenie following a similar line (post 16). I disagree about Greenie just following what Hui said, as Hui was pointing it out as suspicious, while Greenie seemed to be treating it as generic banter. Continues to focus on Greenie and Hui and wondering about Hui/Boro being wolf-mates for the back and forth. Why not Morsul/Hui for the same reason?
This is a valid point. As mentioned before, I'm getting a fairly innocent vibe of Legate so far, and the discrepancy Kath mentions here could easily be an innocent Legate who just didn't think there was a connection. But at the same time, if there is an actual argument as to why Hui/Boro looks like wolf-on-wolf but Hui/Morsul doesn't, I'd be curious to hear it.

As for the second important point Kath raises -
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath
I find Morsul's switch from Hui being least suspicious to potentially wolfy (post 19) more worrisome, particularly because the original statement of being least suspicious didn't seem to have any basis behind it.
This is an interesting catch, especially the latter part. Again, there's an element of turning to suspect the person who suspects (or in this case, questions) you, but what makes this case curious is that Morsul does single Huin out, very early on, as the least suspicious out of everyone. I haven't quite worked out the possible implications of that, and I feel like I'm getting a bit too sleepy to give this bit the attention it deserves. At the same time - and I apologise for the flip-flop - if I were to go by vibes alone, the vibe I get from Morsul just now is more frustrated innocent than wolf.
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Last edited by A Little Green; 04-21-2021 at 02:33 PM. Reason: x-ed with Form, Lommy and Morsul
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Old 04-21-2021, 02:34 PM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
edit: xed with Form, and feeling much better about him. Maybe because he sounds a little apologetic
Well, that's not what I'd have expected at all!

Normally, my crotchety and irritated demeanour as I push the Sisyphusian rock of Day 1-antipthay is to be suspected of being a Wolf for it.

Since Lommy always suspects me, this must mean she's not herself--i.e. a Wolf.
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Old 04-21-2021, 02:45 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark View Post
Let me get some Ghost Practice just a Tolkien quotes right?

“ Surely you don't disbelieve the prophecies because you helped bring them about?”
Morsul, if you're innocent please don't be so fatalistic. I think at least half of the people discussing you think you're innocent, and most of the rest are flip-flopping from moment to moment. You haven't actually been done at this point. Who do you suspect, and why?

Lommy doesn't seem to be making me uneasy in their last couple of posts, so that's good.

Form... I don't know. Are you actually taking a stance that it's impossible to read anything off anyone on Day One, despite all the suspicion flying around? Because that seems pretty tenuous for an innocent.

Greenie is back, and what earlier looked like buddying-up now comes over as fairly considering each person's points.

hS
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:00 PM   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
Pitch - his continued "Wolfate is pretending not to remember Wolfesoron's last wolf game" argument just seems odd and convoluted to me, otherwise hard to say
I give you "odd and convoluted", but you realise it's only "continued" because you and Greenie asked me for clarification and I replied, right? (I'd still like to hear if Legate has anything to say about the matter.)

Continuing speculation about the Hui/Morsul altercation (doesn't that sound like an episode title from The Big Band Theory?), I like Boro's reply to Lottie in #39. Actually make that 'I really like Boro so far, period'. And I'd laugh my head off if we had a pack of any three of Hui, Lommy, Lottie and Kath, although I suspect it's not quite as easy - there's probably a wolf steering meticulously clear of the whole affair. Also I'm ironically flip-flopping about Lommy, her last couple of posts sound more innocentish than before. So, could it be Lottie, Kath and X?
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:02 PM   #55
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Quote:
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Morsul, if you're innocent please don't be so fatalistic. I think at least half of the people discussing you think you're innocent, and most of the rest are flip-flopping from moment to moment. You haven't actually been done at this point. Who do you suspect, and why?
Ah it was just some dark gallows humor.

As for most suspicious to be perfectly unhelpful everyone is giving off fumbling in the dark vibes and I don’t see any discernible patterns that I usually jump on even if a bit backwards and in a “makes sense in my head and no one else’s” arguably Boro’s rather strong defense of me is counter intuitively a small flag because unless he’s a wolf he wouldn’t be sure I’m an innocent.

Then there’s some chatter about strategies and such that certainly have merit but are based on certain knowledge of the players.

You and Boro top my list. kath feels like it was an easy vote and easy to wiggle out of but it really could be day 1.

This is why people don’t vote day 1.
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:06 PM   #56
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++ Pitchwife

I'm not confident about this one, but it's 2 hours past bedtime for me and I can't stick around any longer. Basically, Pitch suddenly turning to suspect Lommy right after she started suspecting him, while carefully not mentioning any connection between the two, is arguably the dodgiest thing I've seen toDay. Lommy's interpretation of his Hui/Legate speculation as potential stumbling wolf-logic doesn't make him look better, either. It's flimsy, but less so than anything else I've got.

I'm not comfortable voting for Morsul because he does act more like a frustrated ordo at the moment, and if indeed innocent, would make an entirely too convenient Day 1 bandwagon. I may, however, want to revisit the subject with a fresher brain toMorrow if I'm still here.

One last thing - I had a quick scroll through the thread, and noticed this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Soriman
Pitch has made some strange arguments against Huin but I don't believe anyone should read into this.
Nothing suspicious about this in itself, but if Pitch does turn out to be a wolf, I'd take another look at Soriman.
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:06 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Now this is a strange thing to say for a player who sniffed out a Huiwolf, on D2, pushed for his lynching and was killed for it just two games ago (granted, that was last year, but still).
I'm actually embarassed, and feel like I should apologise to Hui for forgetting about this interaction we had. (I am worried however how much this is a sign that I am getting, ah, so old and forgetful, children...)

Anyway, to the matters at hand. I spent a lot of time gathering provisions, cooking and re-reading; but here is a list of my impressions of people so far (which is probably gonna crosspost with a dozen, so I'll have to post more later, but anyways; for now):

Boro - has been vocal, as expected, and overall in the centre of attention. Even though I have to say that he was more in the centre of attention because others started speaking about him, rather than him going out and questioning others, as is more oft his habit. What to make of that shift I am not certain.

Form - has not said nearly enough to merit any reasonable judgment, so I would like to see more from him before I could state anything.

Greenie - actually of all people, the way she posted seems to me the most suspicious. I am still not convinced that she did not have an evil intent in signal-boosting Hui's potential suspicion-wagon. There is also something slippery in general about the way she responds, as opposed to sharper and more focused that I'd expect.

Hui - was certainly very inquisitive, which like I said by itself means nothing, and I was not entirely convinced by his response to my question about him. While questioning people is a perfectly legitimate thing, throwing casual "XY makes me a little suspicious" or sort of implicating the people along with it is a Wolfy tactic. Whatever the case, he is certainly a sharp player, which is a reason why I might prefer to have more time to observe him.

Kath - appeared in her typical style. The one thing that just pinged my radar once was her vote for Morsul, because choosing him of all is something a Wolf with little time to spare could easily focus on - if he is innocent, an easy target (see below). But then again, she had to vote somebody, and her reasoning about the 180-turn is valid.

Lommy - her first posts were somewhat noncommital, but later she started posting some good observations. She is also one of the people who mentioned Morsul multiple times, which, if Morsul is innocent, may be jumping on an easy target - see above and below. Otherwise however seems like normal Lommy.

Lottie - seems very... ponderful (that's a word, I just made it). On first sight did not rub me wrong in any way, is a bit under my radar, but that can be hopefully rectified in the future.

Morsul - he was also in the centre of things, he had some back-and-forths with others. Made some points without giving explanation, such as randomly saying that Hui is "the least suspicious", but him then switching so suddenly makes me think a Wolf would not act so brazenly. Plus, Morsul often tends to rub people the wrong way. That in fact makes me alert about those who jump at him easily, because if innocent, he could be easy prey. That is not to say the 180 is not noteworthy, but exactly that raises the question if it isn't too blunt for a Wolf.

Pitch - whereas I am grateful for him reminding me of stuff I forgot (and embarrassed for him doing so), I find his acrobatics around it just puzzling (as in, firstly, as an argument it's horribly meta and I am not even sure what it should mean, and secondly and more importantly, I am not even sure Pitch knows himself; or at least I am not able to decipher his thought processes). Logical conclusion would be: Cobbler. I am probably going to let this sit and see about him in the future.

Sally - need more posts from her. One appearance with talk about chewing and blood, while sinister, does not make good data for deep analysis.

Soriman - I absolutely hope to see more from him. I am not sure what he means by "Pitch making strange arguments against Huin" - can you perhaps elaborate on this a bit, Soriman? (as in, what in particular do you have in mind, why would you consider it "strange" and how does this fit together, or doesn't, with your own feelings about Hui? I am not entirely sure what were you trying to say there)

EDIT: x-ed with like a billion
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:09 PM   #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post
Form... I don't know. Are you actually taking a stance that it's impossible to read anything off anyone on Day One, despite all the suspicion flying around? Because that seems pretty tenuous for an innocent.
With the exception of the Wolves, Day 1 is Wild Mass Guessing and distinguishing the two--especially when you're playing with people you've played WW with before (possibly many, many times before) is More Wild Mass Guessing until you have Facts: which, unfortunately, is a body count.

That doesn't mean that someone can't luck into a correct answer, but WW is an ever-escalating game of "normally I zig, so I need to zag" and "XXXX seems suspicious, but they always seem suspicious, but it's suspicious that I usually end up not thinking they're suspicious, and it's suspicious that they're aren't suspicious, and even more suspicious that they're a little bit suspicious rather than exact enough suspicious."

Throw in a heavy dose of "I've never played with YYY before, so I have no idea" and you have Day 1.

Although there was a time once--maybe around when the Moon first rose in the West--when I didn't feel thusly about Days 1, that was a long, long time ago.
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:19 PM   #59
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Ugh, I should go to sleep too. I have read all the recent posts but I feel like I'm not really computing them.

I'm still wondering what is more stupid, voting Huinesoron just based on gut-feeling, or ignoring my gut-feeling and giving him a free pass which is exactly what I did last time when he was a wolf.

I could also vote Pitch, but that feels a bit like making a mountain out of molehill when it comes to his weird Hui/Legate argument. Then again I guess Day1 is a molehill Day.

I'd also like to see Lottie say something about something else than Morsul because that would help in determining whether my suspicion of her is founded or not. (Is "founded" a word? Or just "unfounded"?? Help, I can't English at this hour.)
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:20 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post
[b]

But then again, each time Morsul posts I'm split between thinking 'wounded innocent' and 'cornered wolf'. Mostly they sound very genuinely fed up at being unfairly suspected, but then we get:
[Morsul asking how to act]

Like... if you're innocent, I don't think you go around implying you're putting on an act (or that you think you should have, which is another possible reading). The "next time I'll lie" post from earlier shows the same not-very-innocent-seeming thought process.
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++Huin

This just feels like pushing a bandwagon while pretending to not wanting it.

My quote conveniently out of context was basically saying I said an answer and you saying I didn’t use the right words. All of which weren’t the actual answer. Hence the lying quote. My posts were what I thought and said because they were true. Could I have worded them differently? Perhaps but I certainly wouldn’t lie.
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:25 PM   #61
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This will be a terrible post in hindsight if [b]Hui[b] turns out to be a Wolf, but purely on the basis of Day 1, I am against lynching him toDay--that is EXACTLY what we did last game and we are going down that same garden path and it was a horrifically stupid loss for the Village, and for exactly the same reasons.

...which is me breaking protocol and referencing past games, I guess, but even insofar as Hui is the anti-me (i.e. trying way to hard to analyze Day 1 during Day 1), I think lynching him for that on Day 1 would be as bad as lynching me.

(I realise I've offered no alternative, but "the most lurky" seems as fair a way to do it as any. Actually... can I propose a rule for future games? No? Okay, but let me put a pin in this for post-games. I have a rule-change proposal. )
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:28 PM   #62
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Okay, since before I did not have data on Form, apparently now he can get an entire post of his own...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Formendacil View Post
At the risk of posting again--this isn't failure to participate. I inevitably (LIKE THIS VERY POST) end up participating, but since the participation is all about how the participation doesn't register until after the day has produced results, I get unfairly dinged for saying things by people complaining that I DON'T say things, when other people actually lurk through the entire Day 1 (maybe not even voting). And, since I think it's bad to deliberately lurk--I'm caught between a rock and a hard place here, I know--I end up responding to the Day 1-talk provocation.
Well the avoidance sounds just like a) a bad strategy, b) irresponsible towards the village. And c), anyway - even bantery participation eventually reveals something. Because inevitably you end up talking about something actually relevant for the game, even if only briefly. So. But now since you spoke, you participated, so, problem solved.

Otherwise I think the lurking is a valid point (and some have mentioned it here before, too), but exactly - all that is cured only by everyone posting more. That being said,

Quote:
Originally Posted by Formendacil View Post
Well, here were are again, then. Since it's human nature to always be fighting the last war (or last week's headlines), I suppose I am deeply suspicious of the lurkers and only mildly concerned about anyone who's posting. Perhaps I should take that mentality and say that I'll vote for whomever the most silent Day 1 person is.
Stating whom you vote and why (and doing it) is essentially the minimum one would ask. Not that I wouldn't think there may be better reasoning based on content rather than the absence of, but I actually think, of all things, voting for purposefully slipping under the radar is a sound basis for voting. Of course also a way to make a throwaway vote, but any vote can be throwaway - it only depends on the circumstances.

Anyway, generally this gives me a fairly good vibe about Form all in all.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy, Morsul and Form
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:29 PM   #63
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++ Pitchwife

I'm not confident about this one, but it's 2 hours past bedtime for me and I can't stick around any longer. Basically, Pitch suddenly turning to suspect Lommy right after she started suspecting him, while carefully not mentioning any connection between the two, is arguably the dodgiest thing I've seen toDay. Lommy's interpretation of his Hui/Legate speculation as potential stumbling wolf-logic doesn't make him look better, either. It's flimsy, but less so than anything else I've got.
This makes me feel much better about Greenie - I'd picked up a hem-haw-y vibe from her earlier in the Day, but I appreciate her suspicion of Pitch (I don't agree with it, but I appreciate where she's coming from) and the fact that she stuck to it and voted that way before seeing anyone react to the suspicion negates the vibe I was getting earlier.

I actually agree with Pitch that something about Lommy's suspicion of Huin feels a little forced to me. I've focused more on Morsul than on Huin, but overall, Huin hasn't struck me as being particularly suspicious, and he's coming across like I remember him from previous games. I would not want to vote him toDay. So, I don't want to vote for Huin, Greenie, or Pitch, all three of whom are people who've drawn votes and attention so far toDay. I might be willing to vote Morsul, but frankly, I think it's just as likely he's innocent as a wolf, so I don't love that option, either. Hopefully something changes before DL...
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Last edited by Loslote; 04-21-2021 at 03:30 PM. Reason: xed with Legate and Form
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:30 PM   #64
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++Huinesoron

I don't think anything would make me kick myself more than if I caught a wolfy vibe from him TWICE and let him off the hook because "maybe it's just his playing style" TWICE and he was a wolf BOTH TIMES.


edit: xed with everyone
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:31 PM   #65
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I may, however, want to revisit the subject with a fresher brain toMorrow if I'm still here.
I realise Greenie is gone, but am I missing some reason they'd think they might not be here? I was feeling pretty good about them, and I only remember one other person commenting on them at all. I know WW can shift rapidly, but it sounds like a bit of a guilty conscience.

Then there's their vote, which is because "Pitch suddenly turning to suspect Lommy right after she started suspecting him" and not mentioning it is dodgy. Except there's been a whole conversation about how natural that exact reaction is.

Couple that with:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Greenie - actually of all people, the way she posted seems to me the most suspicious. I am still not convinced that she did not have an evil intent in signal-boosting Hui's potential suspicion-wagon. There is also something slippery in general about the way she responds, as opposed to sharper and more focused that I'd expect.
And I'm starting to think I was right on my first (er... last-but-one, at any rate) feeling.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark View Post
Ah it was just some dark gallows humor.
Fine, but:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark View Post
Boro’s rather strong defense of me is counter intuitively a small flag because unless he’s a wolf he wouldn’t be sure I’m an innocent.
All I can find for 'rather strong defence' is this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
I don't know why that would be considered strange? I mean isn't it a natural tendency to focus on the person accusing and asking you direct questions?
Which is nothing of the sort, and pushes me yet again over to the "wolf" interpretation of you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Formendacil View Post
That doesn't mean that someone can't luck into a correct answer, but WW is an ever-escalating game of "normally I zig, so I need to zag" and "XXXX seems suspicious, but they always seem suspicious, but it's suspicious that I usually end up not thinking they're suspicious, and it's suspicious that they're aren't suspicious, and even more suspicious that they're a little bit suspicious rather than exact enough suspicious."
I mean... to an extent, but I don't think it's as hopeless as you're making out. But at least you're consistent in your viewpoint - I think (or Wild Guess) that's a good thing.

I see Morsul has now voted me - well, they said they were going to! I think the claim that my response way back was "you saying I didn’t use the right words" is deeply flawed - it wasn't about precise wording, it was about meaning! My 'example answers' were all very different in meaning from the one Morsul actually gave.

So it's between Morsul and Greenie for me at this point.

(Crossed to Lommy's vote.)

hS
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:33 PM   #66
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Basically, Pitch suddenly turning to suspect Lommy right after she started suspecting him, while carefully not mentioning any connection between the two, is arguably the dodgiest thing I've seen toDay. Lommy's interpretation of his Hui/Legate speculation as potential stumbling wolf-logic doesn't make him look better, either. It's flimsy, but less so than anything else I've got.
I saw that one coming, and I get how it would seem like a sudden turn, but it wasn't, see my #27. Also, did you notice my subsequent backpedalling? And as for 'carefully not mentioning', would it have made you feel easier about me if I'd said, 'Oh, and btw she sucks for suspecting me?'


Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
One last thing - I had a quick scroll through the thread, and noticed this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Soriman
Pitch has made some strange arguments against Huin but I don't believe anyone should read into this.
Nothing suspicious about this in itself, but if Pitch does turn out to be a wolf, I'd take another look at Soriman.
This makes me not want to counter-suspect Greenie (dang) because if she were a wolf she'd know I won't, so writing this would be a waste of bandwidth.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
I find his acrobatics around it just puzzling (as in, firstly, as an argument it's horribly meta and I am not even sure what it should mean, and secondly and more importantly, I am not even sure Pitch knows himself
Finally someone who gets me!
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:33 PM   #67
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Maybe it's just because I suspect them both, but Lottie's sudden defense of Huin rubs me the wrong way. Especially since she's talking about him being the same as in "previous games" like it was a point in his favour, while we have talked in length about Huin recently having been a wolf. That argument just doesn't add up.


edit: xed with both again
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:34 PM   #68
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Okay, seems like things are heating up, but I realise that I should vote soon (or rather, very soon) too, because I am certainly not staying up for DL, so...

I would personally prefer to vote for Greenie, even though it does not seem like much of a thing; but then again, majority of people have not voted yet.

A moment to think.

EDIT: whoa, x-ed with several
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:35 PM   #69
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(I realise I've offered no alternative, but "the most lurky" seems as fair a way to do it as any. Actually... can I propose a rule for future games? No? Okay, but let me put a pin in this for post-games. I have a rule-change proposal. )
I would agree with this, but we don't have anyone who could qualify as a 'lurker' who I would be willing to vote. It's Soriman's first game, so it's expected that he'll be posting less often as he gets the hang of the game, Sally is usually quieter, especially on Day 1, I've really appreciated Kath's posts when she was here, and I think I'm next up for quantity of posts...
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:38 PM   #70
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I would personally prefer to vote for Greenie, even though it does not seem like much of a thing; but then again, majority of people have not voted yet.
I think I remember voting an innocent Morsul who felt a lot like this one out in my first game, so I would prefer Greenie at the moment, barring possible ties.

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Old 04-21-2021, 03:44 PM   #71
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Okay, I think I will just go with my top suspect. I am sure there is still a lot that may happen before DL, but I have to go to sleep. I would be okay with Hui as well, but I still think Greenie has been acting in a more definedly suspicious manner.

++Greenie

Good Night, village, and may we sleep safely.

EDIT: x-ed with Hui
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:46 PM   #72
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Form... I don't know. Are you actually taking a stance that it's impossible to read anything off anyone on Day One, despite all the suspicion flying around? Because that seems pretty tenuous for an innocent.
I think Form's stance is usually it's impossible to make anything of Day 1, meaning on toDay. It's only useful when we get to Day 2 after we know the roles of the lynch and the pack's night kill (or failure to kill).

I agree with him, that as much as he grumbles about it, he is always willing to engage in whatever is going on. I would say to him it's more "try to pick out the quiet and uncontroversial" people on Day 1s.

As there are likely to be a, or multiple loud/controversial wolves in a pack, they always get tripped up from their blabbing mouths or grab the attention of the seer.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark View Post
As for most suspicious to be perfectly unhelpful everyone is giving off fumbling in the dark vibes and I don’t see any discernible patterns that I usually jump on even if a bit backwards and in a “makes sense in my head and no one else’s” arguably Boro’s rather strong defense of me is counter intuitively a small flag because unless he’s a wolf he wouldn’t be sure I’m an innocent.
Well, I wouldn't take my posts and question to Lottie as a strong defense of you, ergo I know your role at all. I was just wondering why it's considered strange when someone (you) were getting direct suspicions from someone else (Huey), that you would then focus on and respond to Huey.

I think I got a good read on Lommy and can see the genuine flip-flop Lomminess and frustrated with Form's Day 1 attitude.

I'm still slightly concerned about Greenie. She seems careful still not to commite towards anything.

I'm more concerned with Lottie. She's usually more aggressive and in your face. I'm reading her response to my question in a "alright, let me just back away a bit from Morsul/Huey so I don't get implicated early."

Quote:
Sure, but to the exclusion of all else? And with somewhat dramatic shifts in opinion (that were strongly stated for being based on not much to begin with? Like I said, it could be an ordoMorsul with tunnel vision, or it could be a wolfMorsul trying to invent suspicions. The one scenario I don’t think is likely is both of them being wolves - and the interactions from Morsul to Huin look more targeted than the other way around, so I’m more able to draw conclusions about Morsul then I am about Huin, who has been very active on a number of fronts so far.
Thoughts? Someone argue and be my contrarian.

Neutral on Form, Pitch, Kath and Legate so far. Hopefully since I'll be around from now until the DL I will have more conclusions when I read their recent posts more than just scanning them.

Edit: Ooof x'ed with a lot
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:46 PM   #73
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Maybe it's just because I suspect them both, but Lottie's sudden defense of Huin rubs me the wrong way. Especially since she's talking about him being the same as in "previous games" like it was a point in his favour, while we have talked in length about Huin recently having been a wolf. That argument just doesn't add up.
My memory may be imperfect, but what I remember from playing with Huinwolf was feeling like we were on the same page, he's contributing great stuff, top of my innocent list, and then Legate caught something - a vibe or what, I don't remember - and we voted him out over a very short period of time. I am not getting that same vibe this game. Again, memory may be faulty - it's been a while - but toDay he feels more like the innocent Huin that I've played with before, who is always the first person stirring the pot and poking and prodding people. I'm not saying I trust him fully, just that I don't suspect him, and I think the people who are pushing that suspicion are pulling it a bit out of thin air. It's Day 1 - that's understandable - but you're acting like it's blatantly obvious that he's a wolf and it's bizarre that I'm not on board with that suspicion, when really, there's nothing more to this suspicion than there is to any other suspicion based on zero information. It's really easy to suspect Huin, and I don't know why you're so convinced of his wolfyness based on, from my perspective, not a ton to back it up.
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:51 PM   #74
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I think I remember voting an innocent Morsul who felt a lot like this one out in my first game, so I would prefer Greenie at the moment, barring possible ties.
hS
What I was saying above.


I thought earlier that Greenie might fit the job description for the X wolf steering clear of the Hui/Morsul business, but I don't really see anything screaming wolf in her (yet). I might go for Lottie or Kath.
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:52 PM   #75
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Approximately 1 hour left. Here's the current vote tally, assuming I'm not x-posting with anyone.

Kath -> Morsul
Greenie -> Pitchwife
Morsul -> Huinesoron
Lommy -> Huinesoron
Legate -> Greenie
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:57 PM   #76
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Maybe a definitive statement about the breaking of ties, your Moddesses? (since Hui asked on the Admin thread and wasn't answered) First/Last/My Everything?
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:57 PM   #77
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I thought earlier that Greenie might fit the job description for the X wolf steering clear of the Hui/Morsul business, but I don't really see anything screaming wolf in her (yet). I might go for Lottie or Kath.
Really? I get why someone might vote for me, there's been some suspicion flying around, but it seems frankly bizarre to me that you're considering voting for Kath just because she suspected Morsul. I understand you have your Lottie, Kath, and X theory, but that's really not very substantial and a bit convoluted - and frankly, if Kath and I were packmates, we probably wouldn't both spend so much time suspecting the same person - and there has been a lot more going on in the thread since then. I'm surprised that's still your best bet in terms of who to vote.
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:59 PM   #78
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So, barring another option (like rescuing someone off a bandwaggon), I'm probably going to vote "too quiet." Here are my very-impressionistic (like, Monet with wearing bottle-ends) rankings of quietness:

Boro - Not Quiet
Formendacil - Me
Greenie - Not Quiet
Huinesoron - Not Quiet (Quiet by his standards?)
Kath - Quiet (but not bad for Kath)
Legate - Not too Quiet (Quiet for Legate?)
Lommy - Not Quiet
Loslote - Quietish but Waking up
Morsul - Not Quiet
Pitch - Not Quiet
Sally - The Most Quiet
Soriman - Quiet, but gets the Newbie 1-Day Free Pass

On the basis of this very quick list, I would likely aim for either Sally or Kath under this rubric and on the basis of nothing more than gut and the ill-digested remnant's of last year's game, I would lean Sally.

Which, I suppose, is kind of an honour. If I may refer to events of the First Age, time was that folks like Morm or Saucepan would be lynched Day 1 nearly every game "just to make sure" early. So... you're welcome, Sally?
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Old 04-21-2021, 04:02 PM   #79
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I get why someone might vote for me, there's been some suspicion flying around, but it seems frankly bizarre to me that you're considering voting for Kath just because she suspected Morsul.
Not because she suspected Morsul, but because I found her reasoning rested on the assumption that one of Hui and Morsul was a wolf and Hui wasn't for reasons that I didn't and don't find convincing.
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Old 04-21-2021, 04:04 PM   #80
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On the basis of this very quick list, I would likely aim for either Sally or Kath under this rubric and on the basis of nothing more than gut and the ill-digested remnant's of last year's game, I would lean Sally.
I mean, I don't love this - it feels like an abdication of responsibility for your vote, which is a way for a wolf to not leave a trail - but a note for the future: IF Form or Huin or, I'd say, Greenie turn out to be a wolf, Form seems to be gearing up to throw his vote in a completely different direction, which a) doesn't save the people on the chopping block and b) doesn't leave a trail connecting Form to either of them. That probably suggests Form isn't a packmate with either of them. Again, just a note for the future.
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