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Old 06-27-2014, 01:52 PM   #321
Nogrod
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Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.
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Cop – Eomer
Eomer – Inzil
Lottie – Inzil (2)
Nerwen - Mac
Rikae - Encai
Kitanna - Encai (2)
Wyth -> Zil (3)
Zil -> Mac (2)
Gil -> Mac (3)
Enca -> Zil (4)
Mac -> Inzil (5)
Greenie -> MAc (4)
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Old 06-27-2014, 01:53 PM   #322
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The people who don't like the choice right now should've voiced their preferences earlier and louder.
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Old 06-27-2014, 01:53 PM   #323
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Rikae is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.Rikae is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.Rikae is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.
Oh great. I backed off Inzil because I had the feeling he would be an especially bad person to lynch. Defensive, but not cautious.
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Old 06-27-2014, 01:54 PM   #324
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Bear goes then... I do hope.

++ Mac
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Old 06-27-2014, 01:55 PM   #325
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Cop – Eomer
Eomer – Inzil
Lottie – Inzil (2)
Nerwen - Mac
Rikae - Encai
Kitanna - Encai (2)
Wyth -> Zil (3)
Zil -> Mac (2)
Gil -> Mac (3)
Enca -> Zil (4)
Mac -> Inzil (5)
Greenie -> Mac (4)
Lommy -> Kitanna
Nog -> Mac (5)
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Old 06-27-2014, 01:55 PM   #326
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They're both kind of suspicious, but the death that I think will give us more information is:

++Mac

edit: x-ed with this page
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Old 06-27-2014, 01:58 PM   #327
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Mac is in the lead 6 5.

But

++Inzil
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Old 06-27-2014, 01:59 PM   #328
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Last minute votes will be revealing.
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Old 06-27-2014, 01:59 PM   #329
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Okay. This looks ridiculous right now. Where are you people?

I might have wished to vote Kit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
I checked people who have made points in her favour are: Mac, Cop, Encai, you, Rikae.
Let this line be checked toMorrow however it turns out toDay.


EDIT: X'd with Volo x2
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Old 06-27-2014, 02:00 PM   #330
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Well, Mac didn't do a last minute reveal, so we didn't go too wrong - or right, I guess.
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Old 06-27-2014, 02:01 PM   #331
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo View Post
Well, Mac didn't do a last minute reveal, so we didn't go too wrong - or right, I guess.
We'll find out soon enough.
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Old 06-27-2014, 02:01 PM   #332
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Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Is it too late to choose trial by battle?
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Old 06-27-2014, 02:01 PM   #333
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Silmaril

Deadline. Shush.

Mac and Inzil both got 6 votes, but because Mac reached his first, he will swing. He was a were-Lannister.

Expect a narration.
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Old 06-27-2014, 02:01 PM   #334
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
I might have wished to vote Kit.
Realistically? Should have said earlier....
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Last edited by Volo; 06-27-2014 at 02:02 PM. Reason: xd with moddess.
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Old 06-27-2014, 02:32 PM   #335
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"I demand trial by combat!" Mac shouted, leaping to his feet and facing the room.

A silence faced him.

Nobody was willing to step forward. Only a crazed Lannister would make such a request. He was dead already by the rules of the inn. Who would be mad enough to take him on?

There was a quiet cough. Everybody turned to look at Volo.

"Erm," he said, "I am willing to fight for you, Mac, even if I fear it is too late!"

“I, too, am willing to fight!” Inzil cried, spurred on by Volo.

“Oh thank the gods, any of them.” Volo exclaimed with relief. “You go ahead, Inzil. I really didn’t want to face this madman. He has the bearing of a knight and would probably cut me in two!”

Inzil, wrong-footed and frankly horrified at this turn of events, hesitantly stepped forwards.

"Well then, sir," said Mac stiffly, "I have no chance but to accept your challenge. May the gods decide which of us is true at heart, although I am personally sure they will find your loyalty to your house lacking."

"Funny, sir, I could have said the same of you," said Inzil.

"Traitor," coughed Mac under his breath.

"Lannister," Inzil coughed back, taking down the sword that had been hanging over the bar.

Mac was now the one to look worried. He had no weapon, and it didn’t look like anyone in the inn was about to give him one. Even if they had, he could hardly wield it with his greyscale-infected hand. Inzil took up a fighting stance and began to advance on Mac. Looking around wildly, Mac realised he had nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. This was it. With a vicious snarl, he leaped at Inzil, transforming into a huge, auburn lion as he did so.

"Sir, that is ungentlemanly of you!" Inzil cried and leaped aside.

"CHEATING!" echoed in the Inn.

Inzil and what had been Mac Connington circled each other, Inzil brandishing his sword. Mac growled and snarled but couldn't touch Inzil, who swung the sword aggressively every time Mac tried to advance. The lion’s advances became sloppy as his anger grew, and in a final desperate attempt to claw Inzil’s face off, he overreached himself and left himself open to Inzil’s blade. With a whispering slide of metal through skin, the sword found its home in Mac’s fur covered chest.

"Behold! The gods have judged and found Mac guilty!" Inzil cried, brandishing the bloody sword.

"Hear, hear!" yelled the crowd.

Light-hearted, the patrons retreated to their beds.

~ ~ ~

Dead:
Agan, moddess - slaughtered by lions on Night 1
Kath, moddess - mauled by bear on Night 1
skip spence, ordo - tasted the axe on Day 1
wilwarin538, Three-Eyed Raven - eaten by bear on Night 2
Galadriel55, ordo - murdered by lions on Night 2
Macalaure - Lannister lion - stabbed through on Day 2

Alive:
Eönwë - house Royce
Inziladun - house Tully
Kitanna - illiterate peasant
Encaitare - random peasant
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon
Boromir88 - house Bolton
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin
Nerwen - house Martell
A Little Green - house Reed
WythDryden/Lote22 - house Martell
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark
Rikae - house Tarth
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit x
Nogrod - house Swann
Colin "Volo" Mute - house (Euron) Greyjoy
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

~ ~ ~

Night has begun!

Nightly creatures may begin their activities.
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Old 06-28-2014, 02:00 PM   #336
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Nerwen’s sleep, made peaceful after the successful identification of a lion, was suddenly disturbed when her bed was jolted part way across the floor of her bedroom. Sitting up in shock, she gathered the bedclothes around her, as if they would offer protection against what was coming. In the dark, a shadow loomed.

“”Well, Bear?” Nerwen challenged, unwilling to go down without a fight. “Why have you chosen me to die?”

“Me Bear.” Came the reply from the dark. “You meat. You work it out.”

“What, no deep political motivations? No deep seated and long held hatred of my house? No personal investment in my death?” Nerwen asked, irritated. “I must say, that’s rather insulting! To be eaten is bad enough but for you not to even have a – ”

With a roll of its eyes that was all but audible, the bear interrupted Nerwen’s ranting. A giant paw ripped off her mouth in one massive swipe, and with a grunt of satisfaction the bear quickly set to gobbling up what was left of the representative of House Martell.

**

Golden sunlight flickered gently through the windows of the inn, lighting soft fur. This morning, though, the lions were not sleeping. During the Night they had mourned the death of their fellow and had decided the best way to comfort each other was to wallow in the blood of an innocent customer.

“Who will give us the most pleasure to murder?” The silver-white lioness asked her partner. “This needs to taste like revenge.”

“What about a Greyjoy?” Replied the golden lioness. “Their blood should taste of tears – salt and pain.”

“That Volo? Yes. He was ready to take a sword to our darling Mac as well, he definitely deserves to die.”

Stalking through the inn, the lions found Volo’s room and wasted no time in taking their silent but deadly vengeance.

The rest of the patrons found his mutilated body the next morning. Parts of it were still in his room, parts scattered down the stairs, parts flung around the bar, and one part, his eye-less and tongue-less head, stood upon the counter, a grim reminder of what was in store for them if they did not succeed.

Dead:
Agan, moddess - slaughtered by lions on Night 1
Kath, moddess - mauled by bear on Night 1
skip spence, ordo - tasted the axe on Day 1
wilwarin538, Three-Eyed Raven - eaten by bear on Night 2
Galadriel55, ordo - murdered by lions on Night 2
Macalaure - Lannister lion - stabbed through on Day 2
Nerwen – ordo – interrupted by bear on Night 3
Volo – ordo – ripped apart by lions on Night 3

Alive:
Eönwë - house Royce
Inziladun - house Tully
Kitanna - illiterate peasant
Encaitare - random peasant
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon
Boromir88 - house Bolton
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin
A Little Green - house Reed
WythDryden/Lote22 - house Martell
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark
Rikae - house Tarth
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit x
Nogrod - house Swann
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

~ ~ ~

Day has now begun.
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Old 06-28-2014, 03:10 PM   #337
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So now I know what giving Mac the benefit of the doubt gets me.

That's one Lion down, anyway. Interesting kills from the Bear and Lions. I would expect at this point the Bear would be focused on taking out Lions. Did Nerwen look that bad? As for Volo, I don't remember seeing anything in particular that might have made him an inviting target.
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Old 06-28-2014, 03:26 PM   #338
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Just wanted to pop in to say that my posting will be limited for most of toDay, as I am at a family gathering for the weekend. I will be reading and following along as much as I can, but my posts will be brief, if they happen at all.

Last edited by Encaitare; 06-28-2014 at 03:26 PM. Reason: Cross-posted with Inzil.
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Old 06-28-2014, 03:46 PM   #339
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Now this is an interesting point. Volo is the last to vote/votes for Inzil at 2 minutes before the deadline, and says this one minute before the deadline:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo View Post
Last minute votes will be revealing.
His vote didn't change the outcome, but did bring it to an even number of votes between the two. It's possible he voted the way he did to leave a clue, and his post certainly makes it sound that way. However, it could also be framing by the lions. Must investigate further.

Last edited by WythDryden; 06-28-2014 at 03:46 PM. Reason: Clear up first sentence.
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Old 06-28-2014, 03:58 PM   #340
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Sure. Interesting kills. Especially picking up Volo by the lions.

Both merit a closer look to begin with.


Also, it has been a long time we've had such a big game and the dynamics really look different from a basic 15-player (or smaller) village. I kind of haven't given that a real thought yet, but I think we should all consider that as well.
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Old 06-28-2014, 04:20 PM   #341
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Before going any further with Volo's posts the first one (#36) actually gives me an idea worth mentioning.

So he posts a link with a name "mild spoiler" - and there is a meme of Jaqen H'gar (to those not familiar with the SOIAF characters, he's a kind of "shapechanger" - and one who delivered kills in secret) saying "A man walks into a bar"...

Did the lions think he made an irresponsible but fun hint about him being the bear aka. someone who changes shape and kills in the dark?

It might be Volo was toying with that kind of false revelation / hint-thingy - or how else to interpret that kind of post - but it is also true the lions picked him to kill last Night...

So what does that tell of our lions that they take that kind of hinting seriously enough to act on them? Or that they might be after the Bear in the first place? Or do they only try to make us think they're that desperate?
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Old 06-28-2014, 04:21 PM   #342
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WythDryden View Post
His vote didn't change the outcome, but did bring it to an even number of votes between the two. It's possible he voted the way he did to leave a clue, and his post certainly makes it sound that way. However, it could also be framing by the lions. Must investigate further.
I'm not sure what sort of clue might have been there. He obviously didn't have any special knowledge of the situation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
Also, it has been a long time we've had such a big game and the dynamics really look different from a basic 15-player (or smaller) village. I kind of haven't given that a real thought yet, but I think we should all consider that as well.
Logically, it's easier to lie low with more players, letting the loud ones get attention.

x'd with Nog
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Old 06-28-2014, 04:26 PM   #343
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Quote:
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It might be Volo was toying with that kind of false revelation / hint-thingy - or how else to interpret that kind of post - but it is also true the lions picked him to kill last Night...

So what does that tell of our lions that they take that kind of hinting seriously enough to act on them? Or that they might be after the Bear in the first place? Or do they only try to make us think they're that desperate?
Hm. One wouldn't think the Bear would give any sort of clue. It's counterproductive. Would the Lions have thought the real Bear that careless?
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Old 06-28-2014, 04:29 PM   #344
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Cop – Eomer
Eomer – Inzil
Lottie – Inzil (2)
Nerwen - Mac
Rikae - Encai
Kitanna - Encai (2)
Wyth -> Zil (3)
Zil -> Mac (2)
Gil -> Mac (3)
Enca -> Zil (4)
Mac -> Inzil (5)
Greenie -> Mac (4)
Lommy -> Kitanna
Nog -> Mac (5)
I'll laugh if Zil and Mac are both lions. Because both have had bandwagons D1 & D2 and now Mac is dead a lion.
I honestly thought he was a lover.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WythDryden View Post
His vote didn't change the outcome, but did bring it to an even number of votes between the two. It's possible he voted the way he did to leave a clue, and his post certainly makes it sound that way. However, it could also be framing by the lions. Must investigate further.
Quote:
I'm not sure what sort of clue might have been there. He obviously didn't have any special knowledge of the situation.
I took his "last minute votes will be revealing" to mean something along the lines of "who is going to try to save Mac?" He made that post and Mac was in the lead. Though Volo voted Zil, tying them at 6 each, so I don't know if that can even be assumed of the statement.
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Old 06-28-2014, 04:33 PM   #345
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Yesterday was a fairly quiet day, but man I was glad that in the vote-war Mac was a lion. It was a close vote, even with Mac assuming he was in the clear. I would look more closely at the Zil voters, seeing as they might be Lions.

I was hoping that the night kills would bag us a lion, instead it was two rather surprising kills in the sense that Volo and Nerwen weren't really aggressive in their posts and not that involved.

x,d since zill
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Old 06-28-2014, 04:47 PM   #346
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inziladun View Post
I'm not sure what sort of clue might have been there. He obviously didn't have any special knowledge of the situation.
Good point. I got ahead of myself and forgot that it'd be made clear if they were a gifted of some sort, and I looked back at the post to see that he is labelled ordo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitanna View Post
I took his "last minute votes will be revealing" to mean something along the lines of "who is going to try to save Mac?" He made that post and Mac was in the lead. Though Volo voted Zil, tying them at 6 each, so I don't know if that can even be assumed of the statement.
That's a good angle I hadn't considered. Though, with only one minute to spare and most of the people who had been active yesterDay had already voted at that point, there wasn't much time left for someone jump in to save him necessarily. Also, if they had it's pretty flashy and puts them in a position to be suspected. The same could've possibly been made for Volo himself if hadn't been killed in the night revealing his identity.
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Old 06-28-2014, 05:08 PM   #347
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Originally Posted by WythDryden View Post
Good point. I got ahead of myself and forgot that it'd be made clear if they were a gifted of some sort, and I looked back at the post to see that he is labelled ordo.
And as our Seer is dead and gone (and our ranger hasn't saved anyone), so there is none with any special knoweldge about anymore the lions could have gone after trying to read hints from the posting on D1 & D2 - well the lovers to be sure, but yeah... that's the stinger - did they think him the Bear or not?

As I said - and Inzil agreed - it would be quite reckless from a Bear to go on doing that kind of hinting... but why kill him then?

Did the lions think him the hunter who tried to lure them into attacking him at Night and though they'd better take their chances with the hunter now than later when the hunter might become a more formidable threat?

Anyway. Volo talked about the lovers (and the bear especially) a lot and insisted we should forge an alliance with them. He even said: “I'll count the Bear as a kind of friendly neighborhood Assassin to begin with”.

Late yesterDay he argued though, that Mac is the Bear and said we should not lynch the Bear, and added also that Mac had contributed (so it's not anymore a reason to not lynch a Bear but not lynch Mac) - then he also tried to avoid the lynching of Mac in practise by his vote - and added these:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo's two last posts
Last minute votes will be revealing.

Well, Mac didn't do a last minute reveal, so we didn't go too wrong - or right, I guess.
So the lions killed the one who tried to save one of them?

There is something fishy in here, but I can't say what.

What is it I have forgotten?
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Old 06-28-2014, 05:20 PM   #348
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Well, that was lucky - I say lucky, because I, and I think most, thought Mac was "just" a bear. I'm kind of sad to see him go, though - he seemed so happy to be playing again (I thought it might have been in part because of a special role).

I imagine the race between Mac and Inzil will be revealing, either with lion-on-lion or some desperate jumping on the Inzil-wagon, and I want to take a close look at it later tonight or tomorrow; right now I don't have much time. I still don't think Gal was a suspected seer, since others went after Mac more than she did. Volo might have been - or the meme might have made him look like a bear or hunter. I'm not sure why the lions would be going after hunter-hints, especially when this hunter is less dangerous to them than most with a 50% chance to do nothing, but maybe they have nothing better to go on.

Nerwen was somewhat suspected, as was Wilwa. Perhaps the bear is trying to kill lions after all, but we can't be sure of that. The lovers may just be going for kills they think will throw the village off their trail in some way. I'll have to give this more thought.
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Old 06-28-2014, 05:25 PM   #349
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Looking at Nerwen first, then Volo

I'm focusing on yesterday's posts for right now.

Nerwen
Her first post was a recap of Wilwa, didn't really give much on her own thoughts.
Her next post was a recap of Galadriel.

After her recaps she gets into what she actually thought of the Night 2 kills.
Quote:
No idea, really– she was killed by the Bear, whose motivations are hard to guess at this point. Certainly, though, her preoccupation with that role was very noteworthy yesterDay (even if it seemed to begin as IC posting). I would say that (from my list at #217), scenarios #1, #2 and #3 are all quite possible, while #4 is very unlikely, unless our Bear and Maiden are a nervous pair indeed. (Can’t comment on #5 for reasons already stated.)

Unfortunately I don’t think she left any really clear indication as to whom she actually did dream (if of a baddie, it would surely be Mac as the Bear).
Quote:
This is also puzzling. As a matter of principle, the player the wolves most want to kill is always the Seer (unless they’re cubs who don’t know any better). However, she in fact said little that seemed obviously Seer-ish, leading me to point out the same thing I did last game: sometimes wolves have so little lead to the Seer early in the game that they are forced to choose the kill for other reasons entirely (yes, I was a wolf that game– but it was also quite true, as you may recall). For this reason, I think the ideas that she might have been killed as a false trail/Targaryen/general “special role” all have merit.

Again, though *if* she was killed as a “Seer” her supposed dreamed villain (if any) would be Mac or Volo (possibly Wyth if we accept Mac's idea that the Lions took her #6 joke-post as a hint).

It is interesting how Mac shows up as a possible suspect based on both kills– yet, the reasons are contradictory. It can’t very well be both that the Lovers killed Wilwa for thinking him the Bear, while the the Lions killed G55 for thinking him a Lion. Unless the Lions had (correctly) guessed Mac to be the Bear while (mistakenly) thinking “Seer” Galadriel had dreamed him. (Yeah, I’m thinking this out as I go along.)
Seeing as Mac was a lion, from this post I don't see the lovers concluding Nerwen was also a lion and attacking her based on it.
Quote:
Interesting. I was just reading through yesterDay, and Lommy's explanation of how the Lions and Lovers could join forces for mutual profit actually struck me as being rather suspicious. Not “String ‘er up!” suspicious, but certainly eyebrow-raising. I mean, yes, it’s something an innocent might legitimately bring up too– but I wouldn’t myself dismiss it just on the grounds of being “too risky”.
Her next major post is a look at Skip. Concluding with this:
Quote:
Rikae was the first to express actual suspicion on skip, then later got cold feet, suspected people for suspecting him and voted someone else. (Bear in mind that known innocent G55 did much the same thing.)

Zil and Kit kept on arguing against skip'splan after there seemed to me much point to doing so– it was clear by then that it wasn’t going to gain any support. (Mind you skip just wouldn’t back down– people can develop tunnel-vision in such cases.) Zil's vote (or the reasons for it) also strikes me as a little too easy.

Mac, as noted, suddenly seems almost to agree with skip's plan for no real reason. Why? A baddie suddenly seeing a chance to dispose of the hunter?

Lommy casts suspicion on the skip-voters, while still leaving herself the option of voting him (see #121)
Quote:
Given that Eomer had expressed doubt of both the skip and Mac wagons, I don't think it's surprising he tried to keep out of them; this strikes me as a rather forced reason for voting him.
She ended up voting for Mac, which was no real surprise. She mentioned him the most. She was also the first to vote him. I'm actually surprised the lions didn't target her.
She didn't mention anyone else as suspicious enough to be vote worthy (She made some mention of Zil, Eomer, Rikae, and me). Lommy was the only one she made any inclination toward guilt. Even then it was only "certainly eyebrow-raising", but enough for Nerwen to vote her.

The best theories I can come up with on why the lovers went after Nerwen are
1) Mac fell under suspicion D1, so maybe the lovers thought Nerwen was a lion throwing her teammate under the bus in an attempt to look good and helpful to the village.
2) The lovers have chosen an alliance and it isn't in favor of the village.

Volo
In his first D2 post he said he believed the lovers were actually trying to kill a lion.
Quote:
I'm inclined to think that G55's change of playing style (based on what you say), which seemed erratic and outspoken to me yesterDay, is something which was interpreted as not-Ordo. My intuition was Lion. For the Lions, it's obviously Crow, 3idCrow (likely), Targaryen, Bear or Maiden.
He defended his Galadriel vote a few times when questioned.

Quote:
Some suspect Mac to be the Bear, or the Maiden perhaps. I have had a similar suspicion since some point yesterDay, when we began the Targaryen revelation stuff. However a) I would prefer not to lynch the Bear. b) Mac has contributed a lot.
The problem with this kind of thinking is that it might give a LionMac a free pass. However, I'll give Mac the benefit of doubt for now.
Then of course his Zil vote and cryptic last statement.

Volo was talked about more than he actually talked. He was talked about because Galadriel mentioned him and Mac, thus sparking the discussion that "did the lions think she dreamed one of them?" With Mac dead maybe Volo was attacked because it would be harder to use that same logic again and get Volo lynched D3? Volo, though talked about a lot, didn't actually receive any votes.
Or maybe they read his cryptic message as a hint. Nog pointed out a GoT reference from early D1, saying
Quote:
Did the lions think he made an irresponsible but fun hint about him being the bear aka. someone who changes shape and kills in the dark?
It's not a terrible theory. Though I don't know how likely it is. Maybe they thought he was ranger or hunter. That last statement was too odd to have gone unnoticed, and if Volo was alive I would be wondering myself if he wasn't playing a gifted role.
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Old 06-28-2014, 05:29 PM   #350
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Originally Posted by Inziladun View Post
I'm not sure what sort of clue might have been there. He obviously didn't have any special knowledge of the situation.
B
*A familiar voice re-emerges out of the shadows and speaks as if his absence was never noticed. But in truth was he ever absent?*

But the lions who killed him wouldn't have known he was an ordo when they killed him last night. Obviously they wouldn't fear he had any special knowledge with the seer gone, but either they killed him to set you up as a lynch candidate today or you're hoping no one starts suspecting some lion-on-lion voting. Set up an early kinslaying to make one of you look better? Convenient the seer isn't in the way anymore to check. Also even more convenient it was the bear that got wilwa.

Even I must admit I laughed at Wyth's observation about my disappearance yesterday.
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Old 06-28-2014, 05:35 PM   #351
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Voting Day2

Cop – Eomer
Eomer – Inzil
Lottie – Inzil (2)
Nerwen - Mac
Rikae - Encai
Kitanna - Encai (2)
Wyth -> Inzil (3)
Zil -> Mac (2)
Gil -> Mac (3)
Enca -> Inzil (4)
Mac -> Inzil (5)
Greenie -> Mac (4)
Lommy -> Kitanna
Nog -> Mac (5)
Eönwë -> Mac (6)
Volo -> Inzil (6)


Things I think can be read from the voting-tally...


Eönwë most probably isn't a lion. That would have been totally unnecessary from him compared to fex. failing to vote or voting someone else and hoping for the best.

I also find it hard to think Greenie would be in cahoots with Mac looking at the instrumental nature of her vote on Mac.


Gil could of course be a Lannister giving a lion-on-lion vote - but I'd not put that high on my list of probabilities unless I had other reasons to believe it to be so. Zil again could have been trying to rid himself of suspicion he had gathered quite a lot and voted for a mate to clean his image... but that also, I think requires other information or reasons to suspect him than the vote.


But if there was someone who tried to save Mac (on top of Mac himself and now known innocent Volo), then that person is Encaitare. Her vote-placement looks pretty bad indeed.


Lommy's vote is a kind of "washing my hands from this mess" -vote. It could be both ways: a frustrated innocent unhappy with the options given or a frustrated lion trying to escape bad choices...


EDIT: X'd with the three above
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Old 06-28-2014, 05:47 PM   #352
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Originally Posted by Kitanna View Post
The best theories I can come up with on why the lovers went after Nerwen are
1) Mac fell under suspicion D1, so maybe the lovers thought Nerwen was a lion throwing her teammate under the bus in an attempt to look good and helpful to the village.
2) The lovers have chosen an alliance and it isn't in favor of the village.
The first is the more likely. The numbers favor the village, and the Lovers are going to ally themselves with the side the most likely to win.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitanna View Post
Maybe they thought he was ranger or hunter. That last statement was too odd to have gone unnoticed, and if Volo was alive I would be wondering myself if he wasn't playing a gifted role.
It's possible. But as Nog pointed out, Volo might have come in for some suspicion toDay for potentially trying to save Mac, so if your scenario is true, there must have been some pretty strong Gifted vibes around him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
[I]But the lions who killed him wouldn't have known he was an ordo when they killed him last night. Obviously they wouldn't fear he had any special knowledge with the seer gone, but either they killed him to set you up as a lynch candidate today or you're hoping no one starts suspecting some lion-on-lion voting.
Wyth was trying to say that Volo's "clue" might have some meaning for us toDay. You're misunderstanding, or deliberately misrepresenting.
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Old 06-28-2014, 05:52 PM   #353
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What are the lions (and bear) trying to gain from their kills at this point in the game? There is no seer to try to find. Rangers are difficult to catch until after they've revealed, so the lions could only have tried to spot general "gifted vibes" which might have also pointed to a hunter (who they probably don't want to kill at this point) or a lover (who they also probably don't want to kill, since they've been benefiting from the second Night-kill thus far. So would they try to kill people who are giving off gifted vibes? I don't know that the risks are worth the reward of killing the Ranger, especially not with the second Night-kill lessening the impact of a successful Ranger-save.

The lions are also not killing people who are suspecting them. That would be a giant neon sign pointing directly at them. So what are their options at this point? They could either try to frame someone - kill someone who heavily suspected another innocent and try to get that innocent lynched because of it - or they could be killing people who have not said much about them and are about as much of a no-trace kill as you can get at this point in the game. This would be an especially helpful strategy if they had not fallen under suspicion yet, and wanted to keep their heads down and wait for the village to trim itself down further. I would suspect that that's what happened with Volo and Nerwen, which would mean that Zil is probably not a lion or a lover after all and that Lommy, Kit, and Rikae are also not lovers.

Of course, that's assuming the lions (and bear) are trying to keep their heads down, which might be a completely wrong guess. But if Volo was killed in an attempt to kill the suspicion against Zil, there were plenty of other people who had been more vocal in their distrust of him and who would have served that purpose better. As for the people Nerwen suspected, only Kit had really been suspected by anyone else, and in Kit's case, Nog or Lommy both suspected her more vocally than [b]Nerwen[b] had, so that doesn't really work either. I would guess that Volo did not suspect any lions and that Nerwen did not suspect the bear or his lover.

EDIT: xed since Boro
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Old 06-28-2014, 06:02 PM   #354
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What are the lions (and bear) trying to gain from their kills at this point in the game? There is no seer to try to find. Rangers are difficult to catch until after they've revealed, so the lions could only have tried to spot general "gifted vibes" which might have also pointed to a hunter (who they probably don't want to kill at this point) or a lover (who they also probably don't want to kill, since they've been benefiting from the second Night-kill thus far. So would they try to kill people who are giving off gifted vibes? I don't know that the risks are worth the reward of killing the Ranger, especially not with the second Night-kill lessening the impact of a successful Ranger-save.
It's tricky. The Lions are served by the double-kills, yet they're also potential victims. The question is whether they think the pros of the Bear outweigh the risk.
At any rate I can't see that being what brought them to Volo last Night.
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Old 06-28-2014, 06:15 PM   #355
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Lommy's vote is a kind of "washing my hands from this mess" -vote. It could be both ways: a frustrated innocent unhappy with the options given or a frustrated lion trying to escape bad choices...
Now that's interesting, the read I get off of Lommy's posts yesterday is the same, trying to turn focus off of Mac and Inzil. Could be she's an innocent who thought 2 other innocents were going after each other...it's not like we're unfamiliar with those situations. What does an innocent Lommy gain by casting a "washing my hands from this mess" vote? Other than pumping up her honour in staying out of a mess between two innocents. But we know it's a fact one of them was a lion.

How would a Lannister-Lommy vote, I wonder?...I mean in that situation where it seems clear between either Inzil or Mac. Why not protect herself and throw Mac under the bus? Or if she feels family actually means something, how could she vote for a fellow lion? If that's the case, why not try to help Mac by voting and likely getting Inzil lynched? Unless she already painted herself into a corner earlier in the day...when she declared Inzil has been acting like a normal Inzil:
Quote:
Inzil - people keep suspecting him but I think he looks the same as always. Which of course doesn't mean anything since he's probably been wolf half of the games I've played in.
She can't vote for Inzil...not after having made those statements. Or well she could have, but she couldn't without arousing suspicions that she's trying to save Mac. So she does the only thing she can do...try to argue Mac vs Inzil will lead us no where and we should drop it to look some place else.
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Old 06-28-2014, 07:05 PM   #356
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Originally Posted by Kitanna View Post
She ended up voting for Mac, which was no real surprise. She mentioned him the most. She was also the first to vote him. I'm actually surprised the lions didn't target her.
We don't know that the lions DIDN'T target her, we just know the bear got there first if they did.
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Old 06-28-2014, 07:15 PM   #357
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We don't know that the lions DIDN'T target her, we just know the bear got there first if they did.
I don't see anything in the rules saying if the same person is targeted one team has to pick a new kill. I figured that just meant only one kill. I guess picking a new kill is always a possibilty. Can a moddess clarify?

Addendum: I'm basing my assumption on the fact if the ranger protects someone the lions/bear don't pick a new victim. So why would the lions/bears get a second pick just cause the other got there first?
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Old 06-28-2014, 11:10 PM   #358
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I've read through the thread thus far... It's hard to see much in the way of clues from the deaths. It seems to me that the Lions, or the Lovers, or both, were trying to lay low.

I am feeling more at ease about Inzil now, as it would be a very transparent move for the Lions to kill Volo after he brought Inzil up to tie 6-6 with Mac. I think Inzil is smarter than that. That doesn't mean he can't be a Lover, but he feels less Lionish to me now.

Now to address this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod
But if there was someone who tried to save Mac (on top of Mac himself and now known innocent Volo), then that person is Encaitare. Her vote-placement looks pretty bad indeed.
I had said throughout the Day that Inzil was one of my top suspects, and laid out my reasoning for choosing him over the others. In the final minutes before the deadline, there were many posts coming in quickly, so my vote did cross-post with the three votes before mine.

As I said, I'm less worried about Inzil now, but am wondering if one of the Skip voters I considered less Lionish should be on my radar now. My posting will be limited again tomorrow, but I'll try to follow along as best I can.
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Old 06-29-2014, 04:01 AM   #359
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I don't see anything in the rules saying if the same person is targeted one team has to pick a new kill. I figured that just meant only one kill. I guess picking a new kill is always a possibilty. Can a moddess clarify?
Just one kill.
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Old 06-29-2014, 04:28 AM   #360
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Encaitare View Post
I had said throughout the Day that Inzil was one of my top suspects, and laid out my reasoning for choosing him over the others. In the final minutes before the deadline, there were many posts coming in quickly, so my vote did cross-post with the three votes before mine.
Fair enough. There seems to be two for Mac and one for Inzil crossing your vote-post - which kind of makes it look less dubious.


Boro brings up fair points on Lommy's vote. Although I think a Lannister-Lommy could have voted Inzil even after she said of him:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
people keep suspecting him but I think he looks the same as always. Which of course doesn't mean anything since he's probably been wolf half of the games I've played in.
I mean she could just have said, that it seems these two (Mac and Inzil) are those of whom one is to be lynched, and of the two she doesn't actually think are lions she'd hold Inzil’s the most likely candidate.

The nasty thing from the POV of Lommy sure is - were she innocent or a lion - that her vote that late in the line sure draws attention. And she must have known that already when she made it. So why didn't she choose a less controversial vote? (Well, at least I would have seen taking sides between Mac - Zil less controversial.)
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