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Old 12-01-2012, 11:34 PM   #361
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I'm here getting caught up. In my skim I saw enough to see that I need to ready VERY carefully.
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Old 12-01-2012, 11:40 PM   #362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
I received a dream last Night. In the dream, it was revealed to me the identity of a wolf. (I won't say who until later on in the Day.)

Elendil is still alive.
Well, well, well... Looking at a particular individual the past couple days and their behavior (and a certain pattern I noticed in their posts which was repeated Day 1), it made me hold out just a teensy bit of hope, so I'm not going to reject your claim immediately...

This is tough...

Lottie- if you don't mind me asking, if one of Amandil's line were to battle rodents, what sort would it be?

(I realize that looks like a stupid question, but if you or someone else responds in a certain way to it, it will really help me get a bead on things.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brin
Loslote, why would you (an unknown) receive a dream and not phantom or me (two known innocents). That just doesn't make sense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
Maybe Elendil didn't want to risk the dreamer being killed. I have no idea why me in particular.
I agree that Brin or I should've received the dream if there was one to be had, except for the kill angle... But how could Elendil possibly be that confident in Lottie?

Hmmm....

(still reading)
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Old 12-01-2012, 11:43 PM   #363
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
I'm going to pull the jerk move here and ask that you say what you know. Unlike Dun, there's no harm that can come from you sharing your information. We can mull over why you received the information all Day, but whether or not it's valid (and the implications of said validity) is what's important here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
And yet, watching wolves scramble when they know we know one of their own is so enlightening. I'd prefer to hold off for a while, until I can at least get a sense of how the individual players react.
Well....

You know- I'm going to side with Lottie on this. I'm not saying I believe her necessarily, but if there's any chance this is true then I definitely want to see reactions...

(still reading)
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Old 12-01-2012, 11:49 PM   #364
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
I know– but what would a Wolflote have to gain by making up a story like that, though? When she could just fake-reveal?
Hmmm... Yeah, it's tough to consider the angles here, as there's really no precedent.

Okay- pretend for a moment that Lottie is telling the truth. That means Elendil is still alive and knows precisely who a dream target was. We're getting down to the wire here so it's also possible both Elendil and the other Gifted might reveal, which would narrow the potential lynch field by a LOT, particularly with the Amandil info-holder removing himself from consideration.

So- I think what that means is that Lottie may be forced to tell the truth about her dream even if she's a KM, if you follow me. For if she lies, then it would rule out both her AND her dream as a KM, thus reducing the potential KMs in the village to 2 when in fact there are 3 still alive.

Thus KM-Lottie's only hope of survival would be to sell out her packmate and hope that when the final day arrives she is given the benefit of the doubt versus whoever the other candidate is.

Does that make sense?

In other words, I'm saying even if we choose to believe Lottie we aren't necessarily agreeing that she's innocent. I just feel that it's important to keep this in perspective.
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Old 12-01-2012, 11:51 PM   #365
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You know- I'm going to side with Lottie on this. I'm not saying I believe her necessarily, but if there's any chance this is true then I definitely want to see reactions...
Fair enough. Given ou rsize, I can certainly see the wisdom. I was mostly concerned about the effect it could have on Dun's reveal, but as long as Lottie reveals first (Dun can then reveal anytime he feels like thereafter), I'm not in a terrible rush.


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Old 12-01-2012, 11:57 PM   #366
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And now that Nerwen and Lottie have shown their faces, Steve is the only other person who potentially could contest Inzil's claim to possess Amandil information.

Steve- post as soon as you can letting us know if you did or did not receive information from Amandil.

And now thinking of the Amandil information in light of Lottie's claim- if she's legit then Inzil in fact knows the identity of Elendil rather than Isildur or Anarion, which really ought to give him a much different view of things if he rereads the thread. If she's telling the truth then we all ought to be envious of Inzil- as he's the only one with a true hope of pinning down what's going on...

(A deserved shout-out to the Moddess, I think. This is a fascinating game!)
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Old 12-02-2012, 12:15 AM   #367
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the phantom View Post
And now thinking of the Amandil information in light of Lottie's claim- if she's legit then Inzil in fact knows the identity of Elendil rather than Isildur or Anarion, which really ought to give him a much different view of things if he rereads the thread. If she's telling the truth then we all ought to be envious of Inzil- as he's the only one with a true hope of pinning down what's going on...
Finally home, and the bed is calling, but I'm very interested to see what happens in the mean time.

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(A deserved shout-out to the Moddess, I think. This is a fascinating game!)
Yes indeed, if rather maddening!
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Old 12-02-2012, 12:38 AM   #368
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Still can't trust Lottie's claim 100% obviously, but I've finally made the obvious logical leap to explain why neither Brin nor I was chosen.

Because Elendil knew Boro wasn't Elendil!! (In hindsight- duh.)

Given that fact he had to realize there was a 50/50 chance that he was now operating without protection from the Ranger! Thus he felt especially compelled not to choose Brin or I for the dream in case we died.

And he couldn't guarantee Shasta would be the one to die. Honestly I was thinking I was slightly more likely to bite it than him, as the KMs might be paranoid about his Ordo-info power. Thus to avoid the situation altogether Elendil selects Lottie.

There are a few reason he could've picked her, but in the end perhaps it doesn't even matter at all. As I explained earlier, given the population constraints of this village a KM might feel forced to sell out a packmate.

Let's walk through this...
There are 9 of us. Let's pretend for a moment that Inzil is confirmed innocent. That's 3 confirmed. Then let's say Anarion/Isildur reveals successfully. That's 4 confirmed. Then Inzil says who Elendil is and Elendil says he's right. That's 5 confirmed. Then Lottie reveals an innocent in her dream. If they're both innocent then that's 7 confirmed.

But that only leaves 2 villagers to be 3 KMs. So either Lottie or her target would have to be a KM. If it's only her target, then she's telling the truth. If she is the KM herself, then she has to lie about it (but of course we'll find out the truth the moment we do the lynch, then it's game over for the KMs the next day).

But if both are KMs then Lottie can throw the other to the village and try to win the game for the KMs by getting the other two unknowns lynched before her.

What I'm saying is, if the dream is legit then most probably Lottie does indeed have a KM for us to lynch regardless of Lottie's own affiliation.
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Old 12-02-2012, 12:39 AM   #369
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Extremely brief thoughts on the whole gifted situation.

It's clear we have two gifteds who have been eliminated: Boro and Shasta.

If Dun is lying, Amandil is still alive (unless someone else got information when Boro died and hasn't said anything, which doesn't seem terribly likely). I'm assuming that if Dun is lying, he's evil. I can think of a possible reason he might lie as a goodie, but I'm going to withhold that theory for the moment and see how the Day goes.

If Lottie is lying, our seer is dead, and she's a wolf. Plain and simple. We can't be sure whether her "dream" is an innocent or a packmate, but her role will be certain.

If Lottie and Dun are both telling the truth, then Shasta was clearly Amandil and Boro was either the ranger or Isildur. For obvious reasons, of the two options, I'd prefer it to be Isildur....

Hopefully I'll finish re-reading the thread before bed. Either way, I'll put up a list before I crash. Relatively certain Morsul is evil, but I don't know about the rest of you at all. Especially Lottie and Dun, at least right now. >.<


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Old 12-02-2012, 12:43 AM   #370
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Okay, so- given that no one has challenged Inzil and given my previous post that demonstrates the way a KM would be forced to give up a KM etc. I'm actually going to go ahead and recommend that no one should be voting for Inzil or Lottie today unless given the go-ahead after careful consideration by the trusted Brin and I. If you disbelieve one of them it doesn't necessarily follow that the best course of action is to vote against them. The last thing we need is people posting hasty reactionary votes that spread out enough to allow the KMs to get their candidate lynched.

(edit: remove extra word)
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Old 12-02-2012, 12:54 AM   #371
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the phantom View Post
The last thing we need is people posting hasty reactionary votes that spread out enough to allow the KMs to get their candidate lynched.
*cough* Morsul. *cough*

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Old 12-02-2012, 12:55 AM   #372
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Also, whoa. Did anybody else just get a weird error?
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Old 12-02-2012, 12:58 AM   #373
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
*cough* Morsul. *cough*
Yeah, I didn't like that much, but apparently he won't be back at all today? It sucks not to have everyone around and reacting...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
Also, whoa. Did anybody else just get a weird error?
Ha ha, yeah. I was right in the middle of removing an extra "the" from my last post when suddenly I couldn't do anything, and in other windows when I tried to open the Downs I got a funny message. Lasted about 11 minutes or so I think?

What if that happens at 10 minutes until deadline tomorrow? Heh heh...
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Old 12-02-2012, 12:59 AM   #374
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What if that happens at 10 minutes until deadline tomorrow? Heh heh...
Bite me.
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Old 12-02-2012, 01:10 AM   #375
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Will not lynch at present (or rather, at all):
Phantom
Brinn
Sally

Will not lynch toDay:
Dun
Lottie

Can be persuaded to vote:
Nerwen
Manwe
Steve

Would like to vote:
Morsul
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Old 12-02-2012, 01:18 AM   #376
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Heh- this has been an interesting end to the day, anyway.

Only a few times can I recall bombarding my brain with potential scenarios like this. But seriously, I need to shut it down for the night. Still not back to full health, so I need some shut-eye.

Remember not to do anything hasty. Inzil still has a card to play and we haven't talked to Steve at all, and Lottie has yet to reveal her card... Unfortunately now I feel like probably everyone is waiting for those things to happen so that they don't give away their leanings prematurely.

Thus I think I'm within my rights to request that everyone make a lynch list of the three people they want lynched the most. And if the remaining Gifteds are out there, could you please take a close look and let me know if I've done this correctly?
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:37 AM   #377
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I'm finally off to bed, and I'm uncertain when I'll return. It may be in a few hours, it may not be until after lunchtime here (eight hours or so before DL). In any case, please do not vote until I return unless you absolutely must. I've made an observation, one which I'll share once both Dun and Lottie have revealed their information. It will be worth your patience.
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:05 AM   #378
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Just dropping in to say that I *will* have to vote fairly early, or else not at all.
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:18 AM   #379
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Whoa, whoa, whoa. Ok, I'm going to need to reread this all again more slowly, but here are my thoughts.

Firstly, no, I'm not claiming to have gotten an Amandil dream. This really leaves three options:
  1. Shasta was Amandil and Zil is telling the truth. I can't see a KM making a claim when it's possible that someone else will also make such a claim, because either the KM will be lynched toDay or toMorrow, and given the numbers, I don't think that would be worth it for them.
  2. Zil is a KM and is fairly certain that Shasta wasn't Amandil. Unlikely because he claimed it so early and didn't even wait to see whether others had claims and Shasta really was Amandil.
  3. Irrespective of his thoughts on Shasta, Zil is worried that he'd get lynched toDay and wanted to pre-emptively put himself in a good position because he agrees with what I've said above.
So, basically, I'm quite happy trusting Zil unless something else makes me reconsider. And by happy I mean kind of worried, because I was quite certain that Zil was evil.

For Lottie, my thoughts are similar. It's either KM-on-KM or genuine, I'd think. So we might as well go along with it for now.
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:31 AM   #380
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I agree. It makes no sense - I can't count how often I've re-checked the pm to make sure I didn't read it wrong or imagined it or something.
No, it makes perfect sense. The most obvious choice for a kill would be phantom, so Elendil couldn't pick him. But then, the KMs know that and probably thought that Anarion was still alive. So then they might pick Shasta. But his gift means knowledge, so it would be a bad idea to kill him. So that leaves Brinn as the one to be killed. So, Elendil couldn't risk any of the three and just chose someone he found innocent. Or you could be a KM handing in one of your fellows.
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:35 AM   #381
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Old 12-02-2012, 07:06 AM   #382
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Whoa, whoa, whoa. Ok, I'm going to need to reread this all again more slowly, but here are my thoughts.

Firstly, no, I'm not claiming to have gotten an Amandil dream. This really leaves three options:[list=1][*]Shasta was Amandil and Zil is telling the truth. I can't see a KM making a claim when it's possible that someone else will also make such a claim, because either the KM will be lynched toDay or toMorrow, and given the numbers, I don't think that would be worth it for them.[*]Zil is a KM and is fairly certain that Shasta wasn't Amandil. Unlikely because he claimed it so early and didn't even wait to see whether others had claims and Shasta really was Amandil.
???And what is all this about? Has anyone doubted Shasta was Amandil? And how could the KMs know if he wasn't?
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Old 12-02-2012, 08:19 AM   #383
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Anyone around?
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Old 12-02-2012, 08:22 AM   #384
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???And what is all this about? Has anyone doubted Shasta was Amandil? And how could the KMs know if he wasn't?
Even if no one doubted it, Steve here is just laying out the only options for further mistrust of Zil now that we know no one else is going to contest his claim. Unless we think no one at all could have received the dream (because Shasta wasn't Amandil), we have to assume that Zil was the one to receive the dream and that he is, in fact, an ordo.

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Old 12-02-2012, 08:34 AM   #385
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Originally Posted by Nerwen
Has anyone doubted Shasta was Amandil?
Sally also mentioned a scenario with the possibility of Amandil still being alive in one of her more recent posts. I don't really understand either why that's even being considered. We know Shasta was gifted. Why would he false claim as Amandil and why would the real Amandil not counter claim?

Okay, if Elendil was assuming that Anarion was Boro, I can see why he might not pick phantom or me. But why Lottie? She did seem on the more innocent side to me, but there's no way to be sure. And really, what is the bigger risk: sending a dream to a known innocent with the possibility they could die and no information is revealed? Or sending the dream to an unknown who could use that information to manipulate the village should they turn out evil?

I have to be at work for most of toDay, but I will be back for the last one to two hours before deadline.
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Old 12-02-2012, 08:41 AM   #386
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All right- that settles it. Inzil is unchallenged. Good. I'm here only for about 45 minutes then I'm leaving, but I'll be back after a couple hours. No worries.

And Lottie is back. I do hope she's reading everything carefully, as I still could use some help figuring things out....
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Old 12-02-2012, 08:51 AM   #387
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And Lottie is back. I do hope she's reading everything carefully, as I still could use some help figuring things out....
We've gotten something from everyone. Shall I reveal our wolfie now?

Also, as to your question from earlier - I can't make heads nor tails of it. Sorry.

EDIT: Wolfie, KM, same thing.
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Old 12-02-2012, 08:53 AM   #388
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How about post #376 then, Lottie. Does anything leap out at you about it after looking at it again for a bit?
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Old 12-02-2012, 08:58 AM   #389
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How about post #376 then, Lottie. Does anything leap out at you about it after looking at it again for a bit?
I'm sorry. Nothing.
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:04 AM   #390
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Well crap. That ruins my theory on why Elendil potentially trusted you...

So now, let me just ask- were you trying to accomplish anything in particular at all when you made your very first post at the beginning of the game?
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:07 AM   #391
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Well crap. That ruins my theory on why Elendil potentially trusted you...

So now, let me just ask- were you trying to accomplish anything in particular at all when you made your very first post at the beginning of the game?
I was not. I'm just an ordo - again, sorry I have to ruin any nice theories you might have.
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:11 AM   #392
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Well, it was a stretch I suppose. Bleh... That means I still can't be certain which Gifteds are actually alive.

When I show you after the game what I thought you were doing in that first post, you're going to laugh, because there's actually 3 potential clues there. Just shows you can find anything if you're looking for it.
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:13 AM   #393
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Ah, now I get it. Squirrels, right, tp?
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:15 AM   #394
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Yeah, squirrels. Not to mention "sneaking in the back way", as in Isildur's famous rescue of the seed of Nimloth.

And speaking of botany, her first four paragraphs spell out H-O-R-T which is an abbreviation used in horticulture.....

I thought this Elendil dream was finally making sense.
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:16 AM   #395
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Ah, now I get it. Squirrels, right, tp?
Oh! Right. No, my campus actually does have a lot of remarkably bold squirrels, and I ran into a bunch right before I wrote that post.

So! Wolf time? I have to leave soon - shopping day - so should I reveal the name now or when I get back (in a few hours)?

EDIT: xed with tp. Um...nope, didn't mean any of that! I did notice the HORT in your post, though, but decided it didn't mean anything because, really, HORT? What could that mean? *facepalm*
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:19 AM   #396
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Well honestly I don't think anyone is going to do squat until they hear who you're accusing. Plus we need to give your "KM" a chance at defense in case you're a KM and they can successfully prove they are in fact Gifted etc.
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:19 AM   #397
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Well honestly I don't think anyone is going to do squat until they hear who you're accusing. Plus we need to give your "KM" a chance at defense in case you're a KM and they can successfully prove they are in fact Gifted etc.
In that case,

++Nerwen

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Old 12-02-2012, 09:19 AM   #398
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No, hold on...
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:20 AM   #399
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Crap. My fault. I should've demanded that Isildur/Anarion reveal first so that your target couldn't claim it after the fact. Ugh...
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:22 AM   #400
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Well, that particular choice is... nice... and convenient...

Nerwen- you have the floor now obviously.

The rest of you- no knee-jerk reactions, please. Let's hear everyone out and let everyone give their take.
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