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Old 05-17-2020, 04:15 AM   #1394
A Little Green
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Colour-coded spreadsheet of doom is back! I added everyone’s interactions with THE Ka, and based on what this gives me, my best guess would be that our remaining wolves are among Kath, Brinn, and Eonwe. Rune and Boro are also very much possible. Lommy and Lottie would be unlikely. Overall, I'm a bit unnerved by the fact that a majority of our remaining villagers still look compatible as fellows to our dead wolves. I shortened the bits about previous wolves for convenience, but didn’t leave them out altogether since they’re still relevant. Again, here’s the whole thing –


Lommy
Possible match with Huin, unlikely with Lhuna, fairly unlikely with Ka.

Huin and Lommy – Mutual suspicion without votes, could be wolf-on-wolf.

Lhuna and Lommy
– Mutual suspicion with votes. Lhuna votes for Lommy with barely a reason on D2, Lommy freaks out about Lhuna’s bandwagon comment in the same post. On D3 Lommy points out Lhuna noticing Huin’s slip as possibly wolfish, which would be pretty brutal if they were fellows. Then on D4 Lommy casts a fairly crucial vote for Lhuna. None of this looks wolf-on-wolfy to me.

THE Ka and Lommy Ka barely mentions Lommy. As for Lommy, on D1 and D2 she lumps Ka together with Kath under reasonable and innocentish. On D3 she says Ka's D2 vote looks bad in light of Huin's role, lists her as slightly suspicious and says used to consider her innocent on very little evidence. Then on D4 she says "THE Ka - still very much in her own bubble, which freaks me out a little. But is that enough reason to considering voting her? Ehhhh...". On D5 she says she’s been saying for Days how Ka seems harmless by playing in her own bubble and avoiding controversy and this is alarming as it reminds her of past Ka-wolves; considers voting her but prefers Eonwe. Then on D6 says Ka is a very likely wolf and votes her. This could go either way, but overall seems like a fairly natural thought process to me. I know I always say consistent doesn’t equal innocent, but this kind of consistency – starting from one opinion, slowly beginning to doubt it, then consolidating a different opinion and following through with a vote - doesn’t ring alarm bells.

Other observations: I still think her reaction to Boro’s non-reveal looks very genuine and makes me feel better about her.


Lottie
Unlikely match with Huin and THE Ka, fairly unlikely with Lhuna.

Huin and Lottie – On D1 Lottie agrees very vocally with Huin several times and even points this out herself; on D2 casts a fairly crucial vote on Huin.

Lhuna and Lottie – Mostly either consider each other innocent or have low-key, could-go-either-way interactions. On D2 Lottie suspects Lhuna for discussing Kitanna but later forgets to suspect her for it. When called out by Pitch, Lottie is open about how she probably has a biased frame of mind since she didn’t suspect Lhuna previously; I’m not sure a Lottiewolf would say she literally had a biased frame of mind where a fellow is concerned.

THE Ka and Lottie – Mutual suspicion with votes. On D1 Ka points out Lottie's repeated complimenting of Huin which would be pretty brutal from a fellow wolf on D1, later lumps her with Brinn as suspicious but suspects Brinn over Lottie. On D2 Lottie says Ka is helpful but under the radar, Ka suspects Lottie for playing safe and polished and is second to vote for her. Then on D3 Lottie finds Ka and Rune's votes for herself suspicious and lists both under "dubious". On D4 Lottie says she doesn’t trust Ka but doesn’t have solid reasons to suspect her, either. On D5 Lottie points out Ka's Lhuna vote could be wolf-on-wolf (again somewhat brutal if they were fellows), pre-votes Inzil or Ka, says she is beginning to suspect Eonwe but would prefer to lynch Ka, and says Ka's case against Shasta could indicate Ka and Eonwe being packmates. Later Lottie says she doesn't want to lynch Inzil after all but go for Rune, Ka or Eonwe; votes Rune over Ka due to better likelihood of a Rune lynch. On D6 Lottie still suspects Ka and votes for her.

Other observations: The Shasta kill makes Lottie look good, as Shasta was Seer hinting pretty heavily about having dreamed myself and Lottie as innocent, and the wolves obviously bit.


Boro
Somewhat possible match with all three.

Huin and Boro Huin light-suspects Boro; on D2 Boro doesn't want to vote for Huin and votes for Mac at a crucial moment.

Lhuna and Boro – A lot going on. On D2 Boro defends Lommy against Lhuna and flip-flops on whether he finds Lhuna suspicious or not; on D3 still not comfortable with the Lommy vote and says he'll vote for Inzil or Lhuna; on D4 speculates on Lhuna-Lottie-Inzil pack, is first to pre-vote Lhuna but then ends up voting for Eonwe after it no longer matters given Lhuna's lead (presumably to flush out potential packmates? This makes him look slightly better). Lhuna, meanwhile, suspects Boro from D2 onwards but doesn't act on it.

THE Ka and Boro – On D2 Boro analyses the G55- and Brinn-wagons for potential suspicious votes, doesn't mention Ka or several other Brinn voters (Mac, Legate, Sally) at all; later, after this has been brought up by others, says Ka's vote placement was suspicious and wants to look closer at her. On D5 Boro agrees with Lottie's "wolf-on-wolf" take on Ka's Lhuna vote, and says Ka's case against Shasta looks opportunistic. On D6 he finds Ka the most suspicious and votes for her. Boro doesn’t really take the lead in suspecting or voting for THE Ka, but that doesn't necessarily say anything about his role.

Other observations: This was really interesting, actually. The non-reveal brouhaha yesterDay initially made me feel better about Boro, but looking at his interactions with our known wolves does make me reconsider somewhat.


Rune
Somewhat possible match with all three.

Huin and Rune – Barely interact with each other.

Lhuna and Rune – On D1 Rune says he always believes the best of Lhuna; as discussed before, this could be Runewolf hiding behind what he always does (in the same post he also said he always suspects Eonwe, and has consistently suspected Eonwe for most of the game). On D4 Rune says he would like to have a better look before voting Lhuna and won't just follow QT, which tallies with his previous independent voting and doesn’t tell much either way. Meanwhile, Lhuna barely mentions Rune aside from mentioning on D4 that he could be a submarine wolf; on the same Day Lhuna also casts doubt on Lommy's conclusion that the Legate kill makes Rune look good. Again as discussed, this doesn’t necessarily make them less likely fellows after all; as Lommy pointed out, this could as well be Lhuna pointing out a flaw in a theory that she only spotted because she knew that the premise (Rune is innocent) was faulty.

THE Ka and Rune
- On D1 Ka lumps Rune together with Lhuna in her long-ish discussion of their time constraints; I know I said this made me think Ka and Lhuna were fellows, but I’m not sure whether she would single out two fellow wolves this way. On D2 Rune says Ka is leaning good, insightful and helpful, but nothing concrete. On D4 Ka subtly questions Lhuna's criticism of Lommy's theory re:Legate that would point to innocent Rune; this would make sense with Ka being a fellow of both Rune and Lhuna. On D5 Ka downplays the QT vote for Rune. Then on D6 Rune says Ka seems more innocent than not, probably the last person aside from Eonwe to think so.

Other observations
: This would be a lot easier if we actually knew why the wolves killed Legate. Because I agree with Lommy, if they were looking for possible Seers it’s fairly unlikely that Rune is a wolf.


Brinn
Somewhat possible match with all three.

Huin and Brinn
Huin vocally defends Brinn, Brinn votes for Huin. As mentioned before, the latter could be Brinn trying to distance herself from a fellow wolf who had attached himself a little too closely to her.

Lhuna and Brinn
- Mutual suspicion since D2. On D2 Lhuna speculates about Brinn-Huin wolf pair, though only after it had already been brought up by others. On D3 Brinn feels worse about Lhuna, does an analysis and finds her suspicious but doesn't consider voting her as she hasn't been around; on D4 Brinn is seventh to vote for Lhuna. Could pass for wolf-on-wolf.

THE Ka and Brinn – Mutual suspicion here too. On D1 Brinn says THE Ka seems level-headed and leaning innocentish, while Ka suspects Brinn for playing safe and votes for her (3., with G55 4 and Pitch 3). This would be risky but not unthinkably so for D1 wolf-on-wolf as both G55 and Pitch were ahead of Brinn. On D2 Ka continues to suspect Brinn but votes for Lottie (both had 1 vote at the time). On D3 Brinn forgets Ka from her list of non-Mac/Huin voters and then says she needs to keep a better eye on her, later analyses her but doesn't come to a conclusion. On D4 Brinn still hasn’t come to a conclusion about Ka but says Ka's vote for Lhuna could be wolf-on-wolf. On D5 Brinn pre-votes Inzil and "to a lesser extent" Ka; then on D6 follows Boro on suspecting Ka and votes for her. Ka votes for Brinn, though she was so universally suspected by this stage that I don’t think we can give much weight to her vote either way.

Other observations
: I still don’t know what to make of the Cutie votes for her – or more specifically, of the Cuties voting for her again with an innocent majority. Brinn being a wolf would also explain why the wolves didn’t believe Boro’s fake Seer hints.


Eonwe
Somewhat possible match with all three.

Huin and Eonwe Eonwe casts deciding vote on Huin, though as discussed he will probably have been aware of this at the time so this doesn’t necessarily clear him.

Lhuna and Eonwe Eonwe doesn’t suspect Lhuna; Lhuna supects Eonwe on D2 but in the same post says she considers voting Lommy, Brinn or Boro, then on D4 Lhuna elaborates on her Eonwe suspicions and votes for him.

THE Ka and Eonwe – This gave me a headache. On D1 Eonwe says he likes Lommy and Ka so far, and is wary about Brinn agreeing with him on this. On D2 Eonwe points out Ka and Brinn as possible fellows, but also says she still seems good. On D3 he lists Ka under "concerned about" based on her Lottie vote and says he "could vote" her or Rune. Then on D4 he "feels better about Ka" due to Mac turning out innocent and lists her under "unsure, leaning good", but later the same Day he is wary of Lommy, THE Ka, and Brinn due to discussion over Legate. On D5 Ka suspects Shasta because he is defensive of Eonwe, Eonwe thinks this could implicate Ka and Shasta as fellows. Finally on D6 Eonwe lists Ka with two TBDs and one "bad" over lumping him and Shasta together, also calls her D2 vote "kind of bad". Later he starts suspecting Boro/Lottie/Shasta for framing him and Ka, then backtracks saying that if Ka is a wolf he needs to look elsewhere; votes Ka after she is already a goner. This is so messy that I don’t know what to think. Ka’s suspicion of Shasta based on him being defensive of Eonwe – while saying remarkably little about Eonwe himself – is very interesting. At the same time, I’m not sure an Eonwolf would really say he and Ka are innocents being framed by wolves in a situation where Ka looked like a very likely lynch. Also just in general, Eonwe's opinion on Ka flips and flops almost too much for them to be fellows; a careful Eonwolf would possibly try to decide whether to wolf-on-wolf and then stick with it rather than waver this much.

Other observations
: The Shasta kill looks really bad on Eonwe, as it looked like Shasta was a wolf who had dreamed myself and Lottie as innocents, Ka as a wolf, and Eonwe as either another dreamed wolf or at the very least a likely next dream.


Kath
Possible match with all three.

Huin and Kath – Barely interact with each other.

Lhuna and Kath
Lhuna barely mentions Kath. On D1 Kath berates Lhuna for Nilping; on D3 says Lhuna would've been her second choice for lynchee due to her role in discussing Kit (voted Inzil); on D4 pre-votes Inzil or Lhuna, fifth to vote for Lhuna. I disagree with Eonwe’s conclusion that this vote is unlikely to be wolf-on-wolf. Kath had said for two Days that her top suspects were Inzil and Lhuna, so voting for anyone outside of those two would have raised eyebrows. By the time she voted, Inzil had one vote and Lhuna was in the lead with 4 votes to Eonwe’s 3. Voting for Inzil instead of Lhuna would have looked really fishy for her the next Day if Lhunawolf did end up lynched, which was beginning to look likely at that point. So fellows or no, I don’t think Kath had a choice but to follow up on her suspicion of Lhuna and vote for her.

THE Ka and Kath – barely interact with each other; on D2 Kath questions Ka on whether she actually suspects Lottie or not, then on D6 Kath votes for Ka after she is already a goner.

Other observations: Kath is doing a good job of contributing actively while keeping out of the spotlight. She does this regardless of role, but her lack of interaction with both Huin and THE Ka makes me pretty uneasy. The suspicion of Lhuna, while a lot more substantial, isn’t incompatible with being wolf-on-wolf, either – especially coupled with the fact that she kept Lhuna as a second choice behind Inzil, and that Lhuna doesn’t really mention Kath.
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Last edited by A Little Green; 05-17-2020 at 04:16 AM. Reason: x-ed with Lomzy
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