Werewolf XLII, Mist in the Barrow Downs

[Meneltarmacil]

I have noticed, disturbingly, that Rikae and Macalaure have been defending and supporting each other during the entire game and coming up with the exact same suspects, Aganzir and Nerwen.

I do know that there are RL reasons for this, but this goes beyond what I would normally expect. Mac, as I've pointed out, Rikae fell right into your trap when you asked for a "conventional vs. weird" debate, and yet you dropped the idea and never called her on it. You later said that if a wolf had fallen for it, that wolf would be lynched. Yet you let Rikae go. Why?

[Macalaure]

I don't think Rikae took my bait. She said the debate made sense (or rather that I made sense when I started it), but she didn't further it in any other way. Later she only mentioned it again because she thought I had been misrepresented (which I had been).

It was Nerwen who, indirectly, stepped into it by posting very vague and fishy things about what I had been trying to do (#101).

Rikae and I have the same suspects, that is true, but as far as I can see, we came to our conclusions independently. From my part, the fact that her opinions are the same as mine is a big factor in why I find her to be unsuspicious. Hesitating to lynch the other or defending the other from seemingly unjust suspicions could surely be explained by RL reasons alone, but declaring the other innocent indeed would go a bit too far, (edit: ) it would not be in the spirit of the game.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Of course it would also make sense for them to kill someone who's on their track, but apparently these wolves did not think so. I see three possibilities:
a) Lommy was killed due to the utter lack of trails to the wolves.
b) I'm a wolf and wanted to rid myself from her.
c) The wolves are trying to frame me.
b) I know is not the case and c) I doubt.

If you're innocent indeed why do you doubt c)? I mean if you're innocent that would be just the perfect kill for the wolves! Maybe I need to go back to see who else Lommy suspected to see who you are covering right now?

*just a moment*

Well, no actual suspicions but Mac and Rikae. And possibly LG - it's hard to say if that was an actual suspicion.

Aganzir (known innocent), Legate and Shasta were her "dream-wolves".

I've been giving this some thought. Maybe her "dream-thing" actually startled the wolves after all? Funny you Mac don't mention it in your list of possibilities but only speak of you as a wolf wanting to rid yourself from her in general... just like you tried to downplay any information we might gather from Lommy's death in the beginning of the Day? If you're an ordo you're mind takes paths quite unfathomable to me.

~*~

Okay I almost opened the Day screaming that Mac and Rikae share the responsibility of my daughter's death. Happily I reread the thread before I posted that. But then again I must say I'm a bit confused about this.

Sometimes Mac posts like a truest innocent and at other times his posts just scream a WOLF. ToDay Mac's post have had an air of coming from the dark side alone... Rikae looks and even feels pretty straightforward reasoned innocent - except her overconfidence on Mac's innocence and maybe on Nerwen's lupinity. (I need to try and read Nerwen's posting the next...)

Here I think I agree with Lommy (bolding mine):

Originally Posted by ex-Lommy

"Mac and Rikae... I'm afraid I don't like the way you court and trial each other. Careful agreements, defenses and accusations to balance it out. It looks quite fishy. But I think the most probable scenario is that one of you is a wolf and he or she is trying to get the another one to his or her side or win his or her trust. I don't like it..."

Neither do I as losing either of you as innocents if we tried it would be very bad indeed.

So please you two open your eyes and forget the rosegarden for a moment - or at least until you can actually be sure...

EDIT: x'd with Mac

[Farael]

We interrupt your regularly scheduled Werewolf day for this important announcement:

The narration including Lommy's sad demise is now up.

Also, there was a mild confusion about the role of the half-werewolves.
BEING A HALF WEREWOLF DOES NOT GIVE THE PLAYER ANY NON-ORDO QUALITIES, UNLESS S/HE HAPPENS TO BE A WOLF/HALF-WW OR A SEER/HALF-WW

Also, there are no hints on the narrations. Really. None.

Now baaaaaaaaaack to the game!

[Gwathagor]

Ok, it sounds like I need to explain a little bit. YesterDay, I had the wolves all figured out. I was pretty certain about a triumvirate involving Aganzir, A Little Green, and Macalaure. I voted for Aganzir at the end of the day, first, because I found her the more suspicious than A Little Green (and I wanted to wait before I accused Macalaure), and, second, because no one else had voted for her and I didn't want to just be a follower. I hope that's fairly clear and doesn't seem like an over-reaction (those are always suspicious).

Obviously, I was wrong about Aganzir, and, consequently, I am rethinking my suspicion of A Little Green as well.

I'm going to reread today's posts again and see if I can find anything that feels phony.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Mac

Now, this I don't understand. First you say there's not much in her death, then you say I could be a wolf. But if I was a wolf, then there is something in her death, namely that I got rid of her because she was dangerous to me. If this was the case, then obviously getting rid of someone who suspected me was not a side-effect, but the main goal.

I believe the sentence is clear: I am inclined to think Lommy was killed simply to leave no track, and as side effect, you eliminated a person who suspected you.

Okay, speaking of Mac - I am also somewhat concerned by the way he treats Rikae this time, though I am very well aware that Mac might simply be a little more knightly than usual, but what of things like this:

Originally Posted by Mac

The suspicions against the two were independent of one another, so there's no necessity to back off from Nerwen now - at least from my perspective.

Here Mac speaks about Rikae. I know, there are these RL things - but come on, defending each other in this way? This is just not normal and I don't like the idea of these two really being wolves together. Well, as we all know, nothing is impossible. I am beginning to seriously think about this possibility.

I must say Noggins makes pretty much sense and looks also far more active than yesterDay. On the other hand, Sally keeps me wondering about her daring playing style.

Originally Posted by sally

I know others have said it, but I must echo it. That sounds so very false. It's like he's saying "Yes! We've killed one with ease, but I've been caught in the act. Backpeddle! Backpeddle!" I do have a random thought though. Would you care to hear it? *waits, but no response* Good, no one objects.
Okay, let's assume he's being sincere, that he's upset because Agan was an innocent. Perhaps he is angry because he was hoping to rid our group of its seer? I'm sorry, I know it's a bit out there, and I'll have to look at Agan's posts to see if that's even a plausible theory, but I'll put it on the table for everyone to look at.

I know it can be an innocent playing, but the style... I am just worried about it. These are all sort of a half-fun but very daring theories which the poster herself immediately relativises. And that itself stirs my attention. Yes, worrying is the right word. If I were to form a conspiracy theory around here, I could imagine a Mac-Rikae-Sally wolf pack right now.

Well, I am probably going to sleep now - will be back in about nine hours at maximum. Hope to see more people posting around.

[satansaloser2005]

Quick announcement!

Apologies. I know I said I'd post again in a second, but I nodded off, and I need to rush to work. I'll be back sometime tonight, and will most likely have time to post quite a bit ahead of the deadline again. Faretheewell all!

[Macalaure]

While I have to admit that I cannot follow your logic, Gwath, I think your explanation looks innocently genuine enough to make me less suspicious for now.

Originally Posted by Legate

I believe the sentence is clear: I am inclined to think Lommy was killed simply to leave no track, and as side effect, you eliminated a person who suspected you.

Your sentence is clear, but it's completely illogical:
If I was a wolf, then she does leave a highway of a track - towards me!

Originally Posted by Legate

I know, there are these RL things - but come on, defending each other in this way?

No RL whatsoever. By defending her continued suspicion of Nerwen, I also defend my continued suspicion of Nerwen.

[Nerwen]

First off, I should apologize for the no-vote yesterday. I messed up the timing– my computer clock is apparently slow, plus I had an RL emergency to deal with.

The way the votes went was odd. Given that Rikae was, for whatever reason, determined to save Mac– why did they not vote Sally?

Are they all wolves together? If so, why didn't they go for Shasta, Gwath or Menel?

Are Rik and Mac wolves who wanted at all costs to eliminate Aganzir as a threat (maybe the Seer)? Or are they innocents who were, for some reason, absolutely sure she was a wolf?

Reading the lasts posts (didn't have time until after the DL), I noticed that people didn't seem to realize I hadn't voted yet. I need to think about how this might have affected things.

Now, as to what Macalaure says about me: I did not post "vague and fishy" thngs at all. I just asked him to explain his peculiar behaviour. The way he went for me (and everyone else who questioned him) suggests a high degree of paranoia to me. Fact is, he was acting strangely enough to virtually ensure that people would wonder about him.

Funny thing is, in the previous games I've played here, he was much cooler– and he was a wolf in all of them. So what's going on now?

Now I'd like to hear from Gwathagor.

Edit: X'd with everyone since Gwath.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Gwath is still fishy-looking, not because of the Agan-vote but because of his Day1 behaviour (the same reasons I suspected him for then), and because there was something weird in his toDay's post. I don't suspect him as much as I did on Day1, however.

Today's post was convoluted because I added stuff when I edited it. So the natural flow of thought got kind of screwed up.

EDIT: X-ed with loads of people

[Nerwen]

Gwathagor, you shouldn't edit your posts, except for stuff like mentioning you x'd with people. Posts are all the evidence we have to go on– and people can think you changed something incriminating.

Well, your explanation sounds innocent enough (if you're a wolf you're doing well)– and also pretty straightforward. I don't know why Macalaure can't follow it.

[Gwathagor]

Sorry. I won't do it anymore.

[Nogrod]

Nerwenalysis
+ various thoughts in brackets...

#97
Points on Mac being somewhat confusing while first asking people to concentrate on those flying under radar and avoiding controversiality and then telling he had only wished to trigger “senseless” discussion to reveal the wolves. Says it’s a handy plan but asks how Mac would have proceeded if it had worked.

(I’m still a bit loss with this one. Do you people mean that when Mac says in his first post that: "Strangely, everybody seems reluctant to discuss the useless things and remains quiet because there is yet nothing useful to be said. While it is doubtlessly honorable to focus on what's important, it's not actually helping us today. As contradicting as it may appear, we need to discuss futile topics in order to be productive and make at least an educated guess when twilight comes.” then this is a masterplan after which all the wolves jump in joy and go forwards talking nonsense? I mean c’mon people!)

#101
Answers Gwath’s suspicion on Agan (known innocent) and LG with: "even casually stating your belief in a fellow-wolf's innocence can be rather risky". But then again says LG’s last post was sugary. Gives a tip (to Gwath I suppose?) to look at “staged” suspicions as they may be wolfy.

Points on Menel’s suspicion that “Rikae appears to have taken the bait” that Rikae had started talking about gut feelings already before Mac started his "let's suspect anyone who sounds sensible thing”.

(I’m totally baffled about this. How does this relate to anything that was said?)

Then adds the following:

I'm still not sure what to make of Mac. Was he trying to set a wolf-trap, as he claims? Or is he furry himself, and backed away from his scheme when he saw ii wasn't working? Either way, it was a rather dangerous ploy. If he's a wolf, he risked drawing suspicion on himself– if not, he risked giving the wolves the go-ahead to lynch helpful innocents.

Counters Menel’s suspicions of Shasta for him just being in-character longer than others and his suspicions being pretty jokey.

#107
Clarifies the rules to Gwath’s questions.

Makes a very roundabout notice of Sally’s vote-explanations: not liking it, Sally looking too eager to cover herself – but if sick then possibly not able to think clearly.

#109
Answers Mac:

I mean, if your idea was to encourage the wolves to act silly, and to go after anyone who was being helpful (thus revealing themselves), how did you plan to accuse them– when you'd previously said what they were doing was the hallmark of innocence?

(I admit I have totally lost my track trying to follow this logic... and what’s worse I’m not sure anymore if it is Mac’s logic, Nerwen’s logic or my own that is the weirdest.)

#116
Counters Mac’s conspiracy-theory of herself and Agan trying to help Gwath-wolf by asking why would they need to answer him. But questions Agan’s answer to Gwath as possibly wolf-matish (trying to indicate the other one is overdoing the “not knowing anything” -stuff) – or a wolf trying to lay suspicions on an ordo.

(This indeed looks somewhat suspicious. She ducks the initial question by Mac by kind of “re-asking” why would they need to answer Gwath and then goes on suspecting the other side to the suspicion who is now a known innocent...)

Adds the now famous:

Mac will probably jump on me now, and announce that I'm obviously trying to distance myself from my wolf-colleagues.

(A conscious ordo or a bold wolf pre-empting her stance?)

#142
Late from voting but still posting.

Would vote for Mac or Sally. Feels LG is better now and Gwath is a newbie so she wouldn’t like to vote for him either.

(Quite easy choices at that point of the Day – but admittedly the very same I thought the most suspicious by then.)

Questions why Rikae trusts Mac who acts “in a notably peculiar way”. Says that: “far from "misrepresenting" him, I was simply honestly saying what I thought he meant.”

Says: “Sally's vote for Shasta was perhaps the single most wolfish thing anyone has done today.” The problem was the reasons given but again backs off from it with: “this is Sally we're talking about. She's always weird. Also, it seems she's ill, which may account for some of the extra weirdness.”

DAY2

#169 You can read it just up above so comments only...

There's nothing to apologise for with RL-emergencies but why add the clock thing? Also I tend to disagree with her about Mac acting strangely. Mac has been more active participant than in a long time but not strange - wolvish to be sure but also innocentish. I quess this is again one of those things I don't get in this game: why do you think Mac acts weirdly?

~*~

Summa summarum: I don't know. I can now surely see where Mac and Rikae are coming from when suspecting her. The question to me remains which side of the argument is the true one. I have had my doubts, mostly on Mac, and I do have them still. But this needs to be thought of.


Just ot add a few short ones in the end.

I'm continuing to feel Sally's vote yesterDay a suspicious one. Most strongly the fact that her self-proclaimed "random vote" yesterDay hit Shasta and changed toDay into the "safely-picked one" as no one would vote for Shasta. I'm afraid there might be something fishy in there.

I'm lowering my suspicions on LG a bit as her first post yesterDay was just too aggressive - throwing suspicions all around - to be a wolf-post. And she has made a lot of sense since then.

EDIT: x'd Gwath x 2 + Nerwen

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Rikae's confidence not only in Mac's innocence but also in Nerwen's guilt (her reference to "Nerwolf" in her latest post) strikes me as very weird. How can she be so certain, especially after being mistaken about Agan?

I am not certain about Nerwen. I said “It may be that Nerwolf escaped” (italics added). The words “may be” clearly indicate uncertainty, but there is no uncertainty about whether Nerwen escaped, so clearly the uncertain possibility is whether, in fact, Nerwolf escaped, ie, whether Nerwen is a wolf. I do think it's likely, for reasons I'll explain in a moment.


Now, regarding Macalaure, I am indeed quite confident about his innocence, and it has nothing to do with “the rose garden.” Mac is a good player, but I don't think he's good enough to hide his role from me. I know him better than anyone, and I can spot a wolvish Mac. If we had one of those on our hands, I'd be the first to point it out and call for his lynching (as I did in Nogrod's game) I find the implication that I wouldn't vaguely insulting.


Now, why I find Nerwen suspicious (although she is not the only one, especially after some of the nonsense I've witnessed toDay), also concerns Macalaure, because the main thing that bothers me about her is the way she seemed to try and paint his attempt to start a debate as something it wasn't – it didn't read like normal misinterpretation to me, but as misrepresentation.
Added to that is the way she avoided voting, while still managing to look as though she tried to vote. Sure, it could be an honest debate – but wouldn't it be convenient, especially in the light of the fact that the Agan-voters seem to be the only ones under scrutiny toDay? It actually doesn't make sense, because the last place a wolf generally wants to be is in a small group that lynches an innocent. It suits them much better to throw their votes away and remain untraceable – and if they can get away with not voting, they get to cast accusations anywhere they like without having the suspect's innocence revealed.


Speaking of this, I find it extremely unnerving that all the suspicion toDay is directed at the Agan voters while those who did not vote, or who voted safely, get a free ride. I can imagine the wolves laughing in the shadows, while everyone focuses on Mac and I – in fact, I'm the only person, yesterday, who took any risk at all, and yes, my vote basically decided the lynch. I voted for the person who looked most suspicious out of those I could vote for and prevent the lynching of the person who looked most innocent, and that's, after all, all I could do. I'm confident I can read Mac, but this doesn't mean I can read everyone. Still, I'll post my impressions of everyone in a minute, and see if that gets us anywhere.

EDIT: X'd with Noggie/ added spaces (typo)

[Meneltarmacil]

While I believe you would point out a wolfish Mac under normal circumstances, Rikae, I still consider you to be my prime suspect. A wolf would, at best, send a subtle hint to her fellow wolf to get him to keep his head down, or would do nothing at all until she had a chance to PM him at Night. If Mac is not a wolf, you would simply let him live so he'd draw suspicion away from you.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I can spot a wolvish Mac. If we had one of those on our hands, I'd be the first to point it out and call for his lynching (as I did in Nogrod's game) I find the implication that I wouldn't vaguely insulting.

It's not only money that makes the world go around...

I do agree with Rikae that those laying the last and / or deciding votes are normally the most scrutinised the next Day and careful wolves will do anything to avoid getting into that situation. But bold wolves will take it as a test, or excitement, and to further their goals - in a word to have fun. I know it as I've done it myself a few times.

But even you Rikae can't deny that Mac's first posts toDay were terribly wolfy. Check them again if you don't see it. He did indeed get better later the Day but those first ones... I might have let him go and concentrate on other areas if not for those posts.

Still just looking at the situation right now I'd be very happy to see fresh openings. I need to go to sleep myself though (1 AM here).

Losing innocent Agan and Lommy has been bad as they are ones who can make a difference with their keen eyes. I'm getting very careful with my votes and whom I would suggest people should vote - if that had any consequence in the first place.

[Rikae]

Legate - He's giving me a bad feeling, and it has nothing to do with his insolence. He encourages the focus on the Agan-voters --- which is not particularly good wolf-hunting strategy and something he should know better than to join. He has a way about him that seems to twist people's intentions and describe situations in slanted ways.
McCaber - At this point, he's getting away with lurking in the shadows and contributing exactly nothing.
Sally - I still find her innocentish, though strange and misguided.
Gwathagor - He hasn't done anything to make me think he's a wolf, but he hasn't done anything to make me think him innocent either. I don't find his vote for Aganzir suspicious because she was suspicious, but I do find the sudden way he placed it somewhat questionable.
A Little Green - The whole joking/not joking business yesterday was questionable, and toDay she seems to bring up flimsy reasons for her suspicions.
Macalaure - As I've said, he reads as sincere to me. A word about his 'dammit' - he curses that odd way often, and I thought it was insincere at first too, seeing it in print. You see it isn't when you've heard him speak, and I don't think anything of it.
Nerwen - As I said in my previous post - she looks wolfy to me.
Meneltarmacil - I was determined not to suspect him yesterday, simply because he's easy to wrongly suspect, mostly because of the absolute and determined attitude he takes. I don't know what to make of him --- when he says things like "Aganzir was hardly considered a genuine target before" or "Rikae fell right into [Mac's]trap", I have to think that he couldn't possibly be *that* confused, and that there may be malicious intent there.
Rikae - Hey, that's me!
Shasta - He, even more than McCaber, is getting away with flying under the radar, big time. In such a small village, it really shouldn't be tolerated.

Wolfyest:

Nerwen
Greenie
Legate

Wolfy:
McCaber
Menel
Shasta

Unwolfy:
Sally
Gwath
Mac

EDIT: X'd with Menel and Nogrod

[Rikae]

Whoa - I just left Nogrod off my list!
Somehow it got erased when I was typing Legate's entry, I think.
Well, there isn't really much to say. I'm glad to see he's posting more toDay, as I was beginning to miss the old Nogrod - he seems up to his old tricks re: Mac and I, but I don't find him suspicious... he goes in the "Unwolfy" category.

[McCaber]

'Tis true, I have been rather close-lipped of late, but that is really due to a lack of time and content then any wolvery on my part. So here I try to provide content:

I suppose it's a cliche to say this now, but I also suspect Nerwen of wolvishry, for much the same reasons as others have said.

Sally still seems off to me, but that may just be Sally being Sally. Sometimes she baffles me.

Menel seems a bit less suspicious now than on the last Day. Something of what he says makes sense, and he conveys what seems to be an honest opinion. He is rather single-minded, but I believe he raises some decent points.

Macalaure and Rikae as a wolf team would be worrying, but I believe Mac is more likely to be one.

This Little Green creature worries me the most. Her speakings yesterDay and toDay do not seem to match up.

And I also await for Shasta to appear. In the meantime, I will rest and think. I will come back with clearer opinions and methodology. Peace in Our Lord.

[Rikae]

McCaber, could you elaborate? Why do you find both Nerwen and Mac suspicious? What doesn't match up about Greenie's posts?

[Gwathagor]

Both Thinlomien and Aganzir voted to execute Macalaure yesterDay, and now both of them are dead. I find this suspicious. Granted, I cast the first vote against Aganzir, but the decisive votes were Macalaure's and Rikae's. Maybe werewolf Macalaure (and possible compatriot Rikae?) found it in their best interests to eliminate his chief accusers?

Sally's over-the-top posting style is so completely impenetrable and obscure that I really don't know what to make of her; however, it would be a decent disguise for a werewolf, if one was to maintain it consistently, as one could simply attribute any discrepancies or oddities to one's posting style.

Shasta and McCaber are only suspicious because they haven't said much, and I'm inclined to think that at least one of the werewolves would be hiding in the shadows, rather than in the midst of the discussion with its fellows. It stands to reason that they wouldn't be found all in one place.

I don't know what to make of the others yet.

[McCaber]

But of course, sister Rikae. First, on Nerwen. Her posts such as

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I mean, if your idea was to encourage the wolves to act silly, and to go after anyone who was being helpful (thus revealing themselves), how did you plan to accuse them– when you'd previously said what they were doing was the hallmark of innocence?

and

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sally's vote for Shasta was perhaps the single most wolfish thing anyone has done today. Or rather, not the vote itself, since Shasta was already under a bit of suspicion, but the reasons she gave for it.

strike me as a wolf trying to cast suspicion on innocents. She seems waiting for a mistake to pounce on it to try to make an issue of it.

Nogrod and Menel have raised the possibility of a Mac/Rikae wolf team. I do not say that this is impossible, but I think that it is unlikely. Rikae strikes me as slightly more innocent, because such as

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Let us go for one who flies under the radar, one who doesn't say anything controversial, one who seems eager to not rub people the wrong way.

seems too perfect a wolf scheme to pass up. I do realize that this point has been argued about, but it and everything which comes after does not change my suspicions much. Perhaps the interplay between Nerwen and Mac is merely wolves trying to throw the village off. It seems much too serious for that, but perhaps ...

And about this Lily Green. I do not know why she found Gwathagor suspicious on the last Day, and she explained it not. Admittedly, she changed her focus, but it would still be the best to know why she suspected him and not others. That is not the main reason I look at her, but a factor nonetheless. I just find some quality missing in her posts toDay that was there on the last. It seems as if she realized something was not working in her schemes and suddenly switched tactics.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by McCaber

And about this Lily Green. I do not know why she found Gwathagor suspicious on the last Day, and she explained it not. Admittedly, she changed her focus, but it would still be the best to know why she suspected him and not others. That is not the main reason I look at her, but a factor nonetheless. I just find some quality missing in her posts toDay that was there on the last. It seems as if she realized something was not working in her schemes and suddenly switched tactics.

It's possible that A Little Green voted for me because earlier I had voiced suspicions about her. Also, I have been a little erratic thus far; the newbie mask would fit a wolf very well.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Both Thinlomien and Aganzir voted to execute Macalaure yesterDay, and now both of them are dead. I find this suspicious. Granted, I cast the first vote against Aganzir, but the decisive votes were Macalaure's and Rikae's. Maybe werewolf Macalaure (and possible compatriot Rikae?) found it in their best interests to eliminate his chief accusers?

Well, I think you already said that, actually, Gwath, but I can see why you find it worth repeating, since everyone seems to agree with you.

Actually, I've been wondering how this "meme" of "a wolf among the Aganzir voters" got started, so I think I'll look a little closer at its development.

Gwath started it (in fact, he really started it yesterDay, as he knew Mac and I would both prefer voting for Aganzir to any of the other options):

Originally Posted by Gwath

Since Aganzir was innocent, and the wolves knew she was innocent, it seems likely that one or more of them would have voted to execute her. So, if I'm right, either myself, Rikae, or Macalaure could be a wolf.

I didn't respond to this at the time, because I thought it was an obvious newbie-blunder and didnt need a response. I mean, any experienced player would recognize the likelihood of innocents lynching innocents, especially on day one, right? Not to mention the absurdity of assuming that wolves would vote for someone "because they knew she was innocent", when they knew 10 people were innocent...
but it appears not, because:

Originally Posted by Legate

About those voters. I think it's probable that there could be a wolf among Aganzir-voters.

No reason given - I suppose you agree with Gwath's reasoning, then, Legate? Or does it just suit your purposes to ensure that the voting is focused on innocents again toDay?
Then Sally decided to one-up Legate and Gwath with:

Originally Posted by Sally

Honestly, I don't think there's a wolf in that group. I think there's two.

Her explanation being:

Originally Posted by Sally

a wolf (or wolves for that matter) jumped on the chance to get Agan out of the way.

Now, why exactly the wolves would want to get Agan out of the way, she doesn't say. Why exactly she thinks it's wolfish that I chose to vote for someone I found suspicious, rather than unsuspicious, I don't know -- nor why it's wolfish for Mac to save himself. I'm not saying Sally is a wolf -- I think she probably isn't -- but this is really not good reasoning.
Still, Gwath has said it and Legate gone along with it --- so why shouldn't Sally follow suit?

When corrected by Mac about his "5 minutes" statement (a twisting of the facts that has gone ignored), Legate replies:

Originally Posted by Legate

Yes, you are right. However, I am aware of the fact that it might have suited a wolf to raise such a last minute bandwaggon - and imagine what would've happened if for example Aganzir were a Seer.

Yeah, sure, but was there, as I said before, any more reason to think Agan was the seer than that Sally, Shasta, Menel or Gwath was? Not that I can see. This is not an argument at all, but amid all the mist that seems to be floating around toDay, it passes for one.

Greenie then joins the crowd -- clearly the "troublesome Aganzir voting issue" needs no further clarification, as it's obvious at this point that a wolf will be found among the Aganzir-voters. Greenie then goes on to raise very insubstantive points against all three... actually, if there were ever a case of a wolf riding the waves in the most deliberately uncontroversial way possible, Greenie's post is a perfect example.

Anyway, from that point forward, almost no one has looked at anyone but Mac. Nogrod seems to think he's a wolf primarily for "downplaying anything we could learn from Lommy's death", but really, Noggie, do you think a wolf-Mac would be so foolish as to kill both people who suspect him? I'm not saying he mightn't do it for other reasons, but he certainly wouldn't do it to eliminate them, and therefore isn't any more likely to be a wolf on that basis than not. I also can't see him saying, under any circumstances, "The wolves tried to frame me!" I wouldn't, anyway, regardless of my role -- it's a silly and defensive thing to say. Open your eyes, Nogrod.

Well, I've written another novel, I fear... but I'm becoming very frustrated with this village. Everyone seems to be piling nonsense on top of nonsense and I'm fairly sure the real wolves are slipping through our fingers (while adding just the right twisted words, here and there, to keep the nonsense going.)

I think we have too many people allowing their suspicions to be influenced by others' opinions rather than by actually reading the posts. For me, the most evil looking players here are those who repeat others' words, or give flimsy reasons to suspect those already suspected - those are wolvish behaviors, and the parties most guilty of this are Greenie and Legate.

EDIT: X'd with McCaber and Gwath

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, I think you already said that, actually, Gwath, but I can see why you find it worth repeating, since everyone seems to agree with you.

Nope, first time I've mentioned it. It only just occurred to me.

[Rikae]

Sorry to double post, but something just occurred to me:

Originally Posted by Me

Gwath started it (in fact, he really started it yesterDay, as he knew Mac and I would both prefer voting for Aganzir to any of the other options):

Why did Gwath choose Agan, after all? He could have voted for anyone -- he hadn't listed any previous suspicions, after all, so he had a "clean slate". However, regardless for which of the people already on the list he voted, he could be pretty sure Mac would follow his vote to save himself. Now, if Gwath knew they were all innocent, he wouldn't want to put himself in a position of being responsible for an innocent's death, would he?

But by choosing someone who didn't have a vote yet, he basically absolved himself of responsibility for anyone's death. It wouldn't be possible for Mac to save himself that way until I followed Gwath's vote, and thus the choice became mine and Mac's rather than Gwath's. He seems to have been well aware of that, too, because he made sure to mention it right off the bat toDay.

I'm beginning to reconsider my suspicions...

EDIT: X'd with Gwath - I suppose that's partly true, since before you only claimed we wanted to eliminate Aganzir because she was innocent, rather than because she suspected Mac - still, same old tune: "Mac and/or Rikae is a wolf". Besides, Nogrod, I believe, already brought up the point of Aganzir and Lommy both suspecting Mac.

[Gwathagor]

Ok, what I meant is it hadn't occurred to me before that the two who voted to execute Macalaure are now dead.

EDIT: Xed with Rikae just now

[Meneltarmacil]

The situation I'm seeing here is this:

We've got a Rikae-Macalaure-Sally team of wolves going on here,.

Rikae was suspicious enough yesterDay, and my suspicion level has jumped quite a bit toDay. She and Macalaure constantly defend one anoother, and as Nogrod and I have observed, they've both been doing a good job of overlooking each other's wolfish aspects.

Sally has been suggested before as a possible third wolf, and I'm inclined to agree based on the voting patterns of Rikae and Mac, something that has been pointed out.

I'm convinced that Rikae is a wolf, and Macalaure is a close second. Sally is a distinct possibility, but I suspect the other two more.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

The situation I'm seeing here is this:

We've got a Rikae-Macalaure-Sally team of wolves going on here,.

Rikae was suspicious enough yesterDay, and my suspicion level has jumped quite a bit toDay. She and Macalaure constantly defend one anoother, and as Nogrod and I have observed, they've both been doing a good job of overlooking each other's wolfish aspects.

Sally has been suggested before as a possible third wolf, and I'm inclined to agree based on the voting patterns of Rikae and Mac, something that has been pointed out.

I'm convinced that Rikae is a wolf, and Macalaure is a close second. Sally is a distinct possibility, but I suspect the other two more.

Menel, yes, we know - but could you explain one thing? Why would Mac and I have voted as we did yesterday if we were wolves together?
Why, in fact, wouldn't I have voted for you? Mac would have followed, and you'd be off my back.

[Meneltarmacil]

You voted to save your fellow wolves; Macalurefollowed suit. You couldn't vote for me because killing someone who suspected you would make you look like you had something to hide, so you'd been hoping people would have thought it was "Menel being Menel," which is why you'd been calling me a misguided innocent for most of the Day, and since Gwath had voted for someone you'd frequently mentioned as suspicious, voting for Aganzir would have looked legitimate for both of you.

As to why you didn't vote for Sally, it's simple: She's the third Wolf.

[Nerwen]

Rikae, at #184 you're saying that it's pointless to examine the Aganzir votes .

In your next post (#186) you start examining Gwath's vote for Aganzir– saying you're starting to "reconsider your suspicions".

Explain, please.

And also

Originally Posted by Rikae

I mean, any experienced player would recognize the likelihood of innocents lynching innocents, especially on day one, right?

Indeed– and also the likelihood of wolves lynching innocents. Are you seriously surprised that people are looking into it? Really?

Edit: X'd with Menel, Rikae and Menel again.

[Rikae]

Menel, you've suspected me from your very first post, and there has never been a bit of reason in it. I've ignored it until now, but it's getting on my nerves, so let's see – of what does this “wolvishness” of mine consist?

Originally Posted by Menel

Rikae would seem to be the one most guilty of this "nonsense posting". She makes a post full of jokes, then asks that others contribute to the discussion which she hasn't contributed much to herself.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Rikae.

Yeah, that's right, you cross-posted with me contributing. However, this doesn't change the fact that you find me guilty because (gasp) I didn't post something substantive in the second post of day one.


Now, what could I have posted that would have had substance? Theory, perhaps? No, Menel dislikes theory, apparently:

Originally Posted by Menel

Rikae continues to worry me, though. She apparently thinks a "conventional vs. weird" debate has merit, and also advocates using gut feelings. Not that there's anything wrong with using instinct, but "I have a gut feeling about him" would be a good way for a wolf to sway the voting without having to make up a reason.

Yep, theory is out. He also seems to think I advocated using “I have a gut feeling” as a reason, when I had specifically said:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm not saying we should refrain from giving reasons for our suspicions

Then he goes on to claim:

Originally Posted by Menel

Oh, and so as to not wander too far from today's business, if Mac was trying to catch a wolf in his net, Rikae appears to have taken the bait.

This is obviously a complete misunderstanding of what Mac said, as Mac explained, but Menel still holds to it as valid, I suppose. Apparently, his reasoning is that because I thought it was reasonable to say conventional, uncontroversial behavior is suspicious, I must be a wolf. Now, if that isn't ridiculous... it *is* reasonable. Uncontroversial behavior *is* suspicious, always has been, always will be, and if this makes me a wolf, it's because I was being uncontroversial by agreeing with it! Of course, I don't think anyone can call me uncontroversial in general...

ToDay, he comes up with:

Originally Posted by Menel

Then, seeing a vote in play, Rikae jumps in to save Macalaure, followed by the would-be lynchee himself.

Apparently this is why he finds me even more suspicious toDay. Well, I made it clear that I wanted to make sure I could save Macalaure with my vote at the time. Honestly, no other action would have made sense at the time (I can say this until I'm blue in the face and no one will hear me, will they?) I suspected Agan, not Menel, Shasta, Sally or Gwath, and thought Macalaure was the most innocentish of all. I did *not* “jump in” to save Macalaure, though, as I waited for a chance to do so by voting for an actual suspect.

Originally Posted by Menel

I have noticed, disturbingly, that Rikae and Macalaure have been defending and supporting each other during the entire game and coming up with the exact same suspects, Aganzir and Nerwen.

Well, I've been defending him since I made up my mind he was innocent. I never hid this, and I've explained my thinking already...

EDIT: Crossed with Menel and Nerwen; fixed spacing.

[Rikae]

So, Menel, it makes sense for Mac to lynch someone who suspects him, but not for me to do so?
I could have easily come up with reasons to suspect you if I had wanted to, trust me. It's coming up with reasons not to that's difficult, but my gut feeling tells me you're innocent.

[Gwathagor]

Rikae seems to be in a bit of a panic; at any rate, she's posted a lot in the last hour or so. Is this because she is innocent? Or is it because I struck a nerve in post #181?

Regarding Rikae's post #186: that is a very good plan that I thought of. Diabolical, in fact.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Rikae, at #184 you're saying that it's pointless to examine the Aganzir votes .

In your next post (#186) you start examining Gwath's vote for Aganzir– saying you're starting to "reconsider your suspicions".

Explain, please.

I didn't say being an Aganzir voter made one innocent. I didn't even say it was pointless to examine us. What I disagree with is the fact that onlyAganzir voters are being examined, and everyone seems to have made up their minds (against all reason I can see), that there must be a wolf among them.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Indeed– and also the likelihood of wolves lynching innocents. Are you seriously surprised that people are looking into it? Really?

I am definitely suprised that people seem to be dead certain there is a wolf among the three of us. If you honestly think that an innocent being lynched on day one means wolves must have voted for her, you haven't played much Werewolf. It would have been the easiest thing in the world for the wolves to avoid that spotlight- - it only took three votes. To put that in perspective, three people didn't vote at all (and you were one of them, no?) I wouldn't be surprised if there was a wolf or two among the non-voters (Nerwen, Menel & McCaber) and one or two among the safe-voters. That is, after all, where wolves generally prefer to be.

Remember, wolves don't really care who gets lynched, as long as it isn't one of their own (and even then, they're liable to turn on the one who's going down.) They don't need to jump into the middle of close races... they can sit back and watch the innocents lynch each other, which is statistically more probable than lynching a wolf.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Rikae seems to be in a bit of a panic; at any rate, she's posted a lot in the last hour or so. Is this because she is innocent? Or is it because I struck a nerve in post #181?

You absolutely did - my last nerve. There's only so much balderdash and group-think I can tolerate before I get annoyed.

[Meneltarmacil]

No, it would certainly make sense for both you and Mac to lynch somebody that you'd been frequently mentioning as being suspicious. Aganzir featured regularly in both of your suspect lists, while you kept saying that I was innocent. Suddenly reversing direction on me would look really suspicious, like you were going after me solely because I suspected you, and flip-flopping like that is hardly considered a good sign. Voting for Aganzir, whom both of you had been building a case against, looks a lot better.

Edit: Cross-posted with Rikae.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

No, it would certainly make sense for both you and Mac to lynch somebody that you'd been frequently mentioning as being suspicious.

Maybe because we found her suspicious?

Originally Posted by Menel

Aganzir featured regularly in both of your suspect lists, while you kept saying that I was innocent.

That certainly wasn't something I had to do, as you were saying weird things from your very first post.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Rikae

You absolutely did - my last nerve. There's only so much balderdash and group-think I can tolerate before I get annoyed.

The feel of the noose settling about one's neck would be enough to make anyone panic, whether wolf or human, but maybe your distress was a bit premature for an innocent human? It's hard to say, and I'm not certain either way. Let the wise confer.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I am definitely suprised that people seem to be dead certain there is a wolf among the three of us. If you honestly think that an innocent being lynched on day one means wolves must have voted for her, you haven't played much Werewolf. It would have been the easiest thing in the world for the wolves to avoid that spotlight- - it only took three votes. To put that in perspective, three people didn't vote at all (and you were one of them, no?) I wouldn't be surprised if there was a wolf or two among the non-voters (Nerwen, Menel & McCaber) and one or two among the safe-voters. That is, after all, where wolves generally prefer to be.

This is a good argument.