Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[Nogrod]

Okay. Maybe I have played too many ww-games but there is something unnerving in Rikae's confession of being the ranger. So what if she plays with a calculation that the ranger is Xyzzy who seems not to read the thread too often or too thoroughly, or The Sixth who actually seems to be a bit more active but who might also leave some parts unread? That would be her best bet. Indeed, were I a wolf in this game, in place of Rikae (eg. suspected heavily as the last wolf) I would probably have tried just that.

And see how she says that's she's going to be lynched anyhow after reading the cross-post where I say I'm going to take a look at her and also Legate had expressed concerns over her. So she reveals her actual mindset ("I'm in trouble!") after she has made the very stressful decision to put all her eggs in the same basket that is quite weak indeed?

I'm going to look at her, anyhow. It's only 14 posts so that should not be too much of a task.

EDIT: Didn't refresh the page after returning to the computer and managed to x-post with Legate. Good idea Legate. You check the two, I check Rikae...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Six

I can assure you I'm not doing such a thing to confuse you, unlike Glirdan, who may well be a bad guy.

In his first post, I already said about it the first day that this seems strange. I considered Six being clean after the first day, so I completely forgot that one.

In his second post, he speaks only about time and that he'd have to vote.

His third post:

Originally Posted by Six

Well, a few people at least think that Glirdan is a Werewolf, perhaps this means a cobbler is not involved here? And I tend to agree that he is suspicious. I need to get off the computer now, so...

++Glirdan .

Sorry mate if you are innocent, whereas if you are guilty ...

DEATH TO YOU!

AHEM!!! Now I don't see how the heck could I have seen him ok, because if this is not suspicious, then I am a were-dragon.

Next day, one lengthy post at the start:

Originally Posted by Six

I don't think Thinlomien was using some wolf kill wolf strategy. I think that might just be a bit too open on the first day. Just my opinion.

Tra-la-lah. Nothing to add. If they are three wolves, obviously, no one would want to be left alone. Continuing the post...

Originally Posted by Six

TGWBS was suspicious against Lommy and Lommy was anti-Glirdan. Plus he was suspicious about me! (the nerve ) He then has a go at Mac, and Roa (innocents I think), and proceeds to vote for Lommy. I am pretty sure he's a werewolf, myself.

Good cover trick if he is a wolf, a nice move. Though... (still continuing the same post)

Originally Posted by Six

Legate probably not. But he does say TGWBS is honest, which I am sure he is not.

Only to note this, look at the end of the post to confirm...

Originally Posted by Six

Gil-galad voted for Lommy but I don't think he's a werewolf.

Mithalwen seems to be one of the good guys. So's Roa.

Grasping the straws, literally, making friends among the innocents, as above. Or is Mith really a Lover?

Originally Posted by Six

Brinniel: I think this might be our wolf. In a vote for Roa maybe she's trying to take some of the heat off Glirdan. That's not very concealed, but it's her second game...

Surely, found a person to cast a suspicion on. Does it have something in common with Brinn's death later then? Have to review if she was against Six/Lommy very much (sorry, Roa, if you were right after all).

Originally Posted by Six

Nogrod, good guys. Rather a voice of reason. Gifted?

Trying to sniff out Gifteds or, as before, just making friends among innocents.

Originally Posted by Six

As you can see I am a great Thinlomien supporter I'm afraid.

Cf. above - quite dangerous for a wolf, however as we can see, he slipped off the radar from then. This was a quite innocentish defence for himself to explain why he is on Lommy's side.

Originally Posted by Six

So my opinions are that TGWBS, Legate(?) and Brin are the most likely in my mind to be werewolves at this stage in the game.

He voted TGWBS later then, we know. Only to mention, because it concerns me, I don't see how he came to thinking me wolf when from above, he didn't say anything significant about me. This is more like a point of interest.

Will continue, though...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

...and it's not getting better at all.

Next posts:
Only to make this complete, the clever person who posted the quote in the middle of the following quote was Gil-Galad:

Originally Posted by Six

Oh man, people I thought were innocent are plastering ridiculous accusations over each other, this only makes it harder to tell who's the wolf . . . What's more they're plastering things over me!

That was a bit of a big assumption, don't you think? After only two votes, both near the start of the day, one by a newbie (me) and one by a suspect (Lommy), do you think Glirdan would really have given himself up to his fate to make me look completely innocent? And do you think that I would have accused him so early on the game?

If Gil was right, then Six's reaction was pretty typical and for a wolf, possibly the best.

In his later post that day, where he votes (for tgwbs), he sums also everyone, and says mostly things like "Suspicious. Need to find more on him, though." Of interest is this:

Originally Posted by Six

Nogrod ~ Voted for Glirdan, late in the Day. If I was a wolf, I sure wouldn't press home Glirdan and not gain much in the way of trust, so probably innocent.

This is once again (repeatedly and repeatedly) distancing himself from Glirdan lynching, said quite explicitely. "IF I WAS A WOLF, I WOULDN'T..." Well if he IS a wolf, he did.
The same he says on Lommy later:

Originally Posted by Six

Thinlómien ~ It might be my death, killed by wolves, lynched after she gets lynched herself, but I still hold trust in our good ol' goat farmer. I still don't reckon she would have tried to get rid of Glirdan so soon in the game if she knew he was a wolf. And if she did, it sure hasn't paid off anyways.

*shakes head* This is so eye-striking that I might have monocles if I read any more post of him... Oh yes, only about his vote then:

Originally Posted by Six

the guy who be short ~ His vote yesterday is still very suspicious. He also didn't post much since then. Very close to voting him, don't know whether to join the Thinlomien bandwagon. . .

This is as unsuspicious as a man who walks a street where a dead body lies, and he is whistling, if you catch my meaning.

Six was pretty lucky I lost interest in him after I saw he lynched Glirdan. This move he did brilliantly, as well as Lommy. The trouble is, they did it together and Lommy was revealed. I don't even know if I should continue in his analysis (but of course I will), because from this, he is either guilty as guilty Guilter from Guilterria can be, or he is veeery very unlucky to have posted what he posted.

[Nogrod]

I just love your analyses Legate! You're having the kill in them! Welcome to the club!

But let's just remember that as it's the late Days of the game already we should also be careful. Lots of what you say makes sense and The Sixth looks very bad indeed - as lots of what I said about Mac made sense and still were not true (possibly... hopefully...). Making a crushing analysis of someone oftentimes makes one himself the most convinced about the rightness of one's cause. I admit I partly fell into that trap yesterDay.

But keep up the good work!

I'm still going through Rikae (on the second Day already!) and I try also to pay heed to what Roa has said of her and kind of combine those two things somehow.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Good idea Legate. You check the two, I check Rikae...

And who will be looking at Legate?

Alright, I will. But it might take a bit.

Right now, I fear it doesn't look very well for him. Usually, an analysis is used to determine whether a person is a wolf or not, especially when one claims to not really have looked at the person for a long time. Legate's analysis of Six, on the other hand, seems mainly directed at proving to everybody that Six is guilty. It's very one-sided and biased, not inquiring, but polemic.
No offense, of course.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

The remaining posts are not easing the suspicion on xyzzy in any way. Concern among the population rose, so Six had to react, the tone is generally like this:

Originally Posted by Six

Gaaah! I was wrong! NOO! Actually I was wrong twice, because Gil-Galad was an innocent too. Curse Werewolf! Curse them, we hates them! (for a few minutes the Sixth Wizard rambles and mutters to calm his nerves)

Concerning Lommy there was this remark, in his last post, today:

Originally Posted by Six

Now I can see why I wasn't eaten, because I was unfortunately a staunch supporter of Lommy. And the ranger's gone, guys, I have to say I'm doomed.

I hope he's right in the last sentence, if he's a wolf. Only for explanation, if anyone doesn't know, he was mistaking ranger for hunter. I don't think this would signify anything, either if he was doing that trying to feign newbieness.

Originally Posted by Six

So, 1 more wolf left, no ranger or cobbler. Seer? That leaves five innocents. I think that there would be at least one more role filled. A likely explanation is lovers, in which case we have the advantage, because if we lynch one, we get the other, obviously.

For the first sentence, it might be an unintentional slip that there is only one wolf (him) and not, for example, two. When I'm already in it, I will stop at the "one more role filled" thing. I think there might not be lovers at all, according to what Six said, because he started about it himself. On the other hand, there might be lovers for a very good reason, and that's because the wolves were so eager to vote for each other (though there were surely more important reasons, it might have been like a supporting idea of why to make a sacrifice of a mate. The non-lover wolves probably also wouldn't know if lovers exist, as much as us).

EDIT: X-ed since my last post

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Xyzzy's posts no.107, 230 and 305 are containing almost nothing. In #230 he says that he's going to vote Roa just for the case if "tgwbs knew what he was talking about". This implies xyzzy read through the thread, or read at least something of it, so he is not totally "out", but still this is probably worth nothing. Only that he didn't vote for a wolf. In #305, he says "Hooray, another wolf down."

Well, I am sorry, but I'm basing very much on the "out-game" things, though it's actually in-game, but xyzzy didn't post much, so I take only what I can:

Post #114. This is of interest:

So, TGWBS sounds dangerous. Who's Lommy? Is that the Thin-something-or-another-with-non-English-characters-thrown-in guy? Wow, I'm confused...

I think I'll probably vote for TGWBS, another individual with whom I'm not familiar, but not immediately, in case something new comes up.

Which one - GG or Lommy?

Really sorry to bring this here. But unless xyzzy is really fooling us miraculously and playing dumb, then he'd probably know that Lommy is not a "he" if they were playing together.

This is all we have of him in-game, though as you can see, it is actually an evidence based on "out-game" things (sex of the Downers, all too known topic. Just today I saw one older thread where I referred to Mac as "she").

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

And who will be looking at Legate?

Oh, no. I thought I'd come out easy

Originally Posted by Mac

Right now, I fear it doesn't look very well for him. Usually, an analysis is used to determine whether a person is a wolf or not, especially when one claims to not really have looked at the person for a long time. Legate's analysis of Six, on the other hand, seems mainly directed at proving to everybody that Six is guilty. It's very one-sided and biased, not inquiring, but polemic.
No offense, of course.

Well, just read Six's post for yourself. It was not meant to be condemning, I was actually expecting nothing when starting to read it, I had neutral intention, but what I saw was really as if someone beat me over head with something. And I wrote it "on walk", so I just wrote with the impression still bubbling in me. "This is as obvious as a Chinese crawler tractor on a Liverpool horse-race! How could you have not seen that?" Really, read it for yourself. Just the first post really got me.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well, just read Six's post for yourself. It was not meant to be condemning, I was actually expecting nothing when starting to read it, I had neutral intention, but what I saw was really as if someone beat me over head with something. And I wrote it "on walk", so I just wrote with the impression still bubbling in me.

Originally Posted by me

But let's just remember that as it's the late Days of the game already we should also be careful. Lots of what you say makes sense and The Sixth looks very bad indeed - as lots of what I said about Mac made sense and still were not true (possibly... hopefully...). Making a crushing analysis of someone oftentimes makes one himself the most convinced about the rightness of one's cause. I admit I partly fell into that trap yesterDay.

Just remember this.

I thought of asking you Mac to do something on Legate. Good to see you took it voluntarily...

I'm finished with Rikae pretty soon. It has been a hell of a job as I have tried to be balanced and also look at what Roa has said about her (which seems to be proving the best case so far in favour of Rikae).

[Mithalwen]

Hi I am here - see admin life for RL explanation.

I am neither lover or mythomaniac. I hardly think wolf lommy would have made such an effort to get me lynched. She really pulled the wool over my eyes though .. her Glirdan vote seemed reasonable to me but I seee that Anguirel had an apt pupil.....

Well done Roa but it has made what I had expected to be an easy day more difficult.

I need to read and catch up but I do think the "no kill is significant". I am sorry to bang on but we do need to think about Xyzzy ....

[Nogrod]

The waffling Rikae-analysis (looking at her as a wolf / ranger)


D1
#4 Second post of the game, following the pure nonsense style of Glirdan’s first post.

#7 Starts up the famous row with Roa’s first post discussing the gifteds and their revealments.

I'm not sure I like the way Roa advocates mistrust toward revealed gifteds with one breath, and points out that claiming giftedness would be a risky strategy for wolves with the next.

The quoted part at least sounds a bit too odd as an opening move between the hunter and the ranger. I know they should create an air of not be seen as “friends” but still this is an open accusation that could be picked up by others – as it indeed was. Were Rikae a wolf she would know that Roa is not one and thence this kind of spreading “substantial” suspicion on a mighty player would be the thing she should go for.

#33 Decides to reserve her judgement on Glirdy so far with a lot “waffling”. Suspects tgwbs for his suspicions on Roa ("trying to sound helpful without being helpful") and because he suspected Lommy for early voting. Wonders why tgwbs doesn’t wish a hunter to reveal as it would be better for the wolves s/he didn’t.

Now this is a hard one. She manages to defend two known wolves in a same post but what she says about Roa and tgwbs looks like she is in a way defending Roa and she makes a decent point about hunter’s not revealing being better for the wolves (so tgwbs who called for the hunter not to reveal was aiding the wolves’ cause) – although that decency depends on the interpretation of the way the hunter works as there is lots of variation there between the games.

#93 Comes in four minutes before the deadline (saying she had a wrong time in mind) and votes for Glirdan for reasons “mentioned earlier”.

No problem with getting the time wrong... Voting Glirdan and bringing him back to the game (making Glirdy even with Lommy) looks good for Rikae. Although a wolf Rikae would know the value of that kind of track-record too. She could have voted for her seeming top-suspect from earlier tgwbs with some real chances of getting him lynched too.

D2
#117

Since we have no kill today, I'm assuming the wolves' intended victim was protected? Kudos to our ranger - nice work!

Still suspects tgwbs as he voted for Lommy(wolf) with wolf-Glirdy. Finds Brinn even more suspicious because she thought tgwbs “as innocent as” Lommy and had promised not to vote for Glirdy. Thinks The Sixth and myself to be innocent because of our voting.

Now the quoted part really raises some questionmarks. So giving kudos to herself from the job she had not performed? Now this could be excellent rangership – making her look as totally messed up with the role she herself has. Great tactics, I’d say. Then again her suspicions on Brinniel look a bit weird as she accuses tgwbs for voting Lommy and then criticises Brinn for thinking Lommy innocent... Also clearing The Sixth and me just because of our votes looks suspiciously like a “friend-gaining” mission. Overall her relation to Lommy is a bit disconcerting: she defends her all the way but still (like here) likes to stress that we don’t know whether she is innocent.

#125 Tells that she had realised why there wasn’t a kill. Makes a point why a wolf-Nogrod would not have killed his fellow that early in the game (well he might have done, but the point is reasonable).

So not acting the puzzled-one anymore or actually getting to grips with things only now? The problem is that if the latter, then the idea of her “playing” the ignorant (while being the clever ranger) is not more looking less a possibility. Were she a wolf she might have wished to make me feel good not to start suspecting her – but no innocent would wish to jump on someone they honestly thought innocent either...

#190 Informs us (after I requested people to do it) being inclined to vote for tgwbs or Brinniel.

#207 Defends The Sixth against Legate and wants him to be watched more closely in the future. Votes tgwbs. The reason for the vote:

who I've suspected from the beginning, as I've said; there seems to be no better lead (though Roa makes a good point about Gil).

She brings Roa forwards. Now would a ranger bring the hunter forwards this way? Might do, as a way of not being able to resist the urge to kind of confirm the pack they have? I don’t know. I would like to throw a line or two to the other one I would be in cahoots with. Surely.

#216 Answers on overtime Legate’s post attacking Lommy. Says she hasn’t seen a plausible case against Lommy yet.

Edgy with it?

D3
#256 Makes an analysis on Glirdy’s interactions on Day1. Makes two points abvout Roa:

While I wouldn't put sacrificing a fellow wolf beyond Roa (she's said she would do it in this game alone), I somehow doubt wolf-Gil [Glirdan?] would leap on the first hint of a suspicion like that if it was for a fellow wolf. He could just as easily have ignored it.

and

Roa, in spite of her initial suspicion of Glirdan, votes for TGWBS. Slightly suspicious, though she gives several reasons.

Thinks Legate looks the most suspicious, then me.

Looks like she’s learning something from Roa eg. she has started to play the same subdued tactics? But she’s even more subdued with Lommy.

#295 Votes Gil-Galad.

Okay. This has been discussed somewhat already. So she didn’t trust Mac’s revealment. I can’t blame her as I doubted it to begin with also. And if she’s the ranger she had additional reasons to doubt Mac as he (quite wisely) didn’t say Roa is the hunter. So he might have just said she’s innocent (a wolf-Mac would know that) and ranger-Rikae would know there is something missing...


--------------------
Roa on Rikae

#9 Explains her point. Says:

Gifteds, if they are in this game, will just have to be more clever than that.

Pretty neutral. But the quoted thing kind of looks interesting. It’s a question we know no answer that whether the hunter and the ranger were able to PM each other or not. That has not been told to us. Knowledge of that might help us interpreting this one.

#118 Lists what people thought about Glirdan the Day before. Puts Rikae in the “unsure / thinks innocent” –section.

#119

Strictly by placement of the votes, Sixth looks most innocent (especially given Glirdan's reaction), followed by Rikae, then Lommy.

#124 Admits Brinn’s correction to her vote-count that it was Rikae who raised Glirdan even to the lead.

Probably just a mistake? Can’t see any significance here but it somewhat spoiled her point on me...

#126 Reminds Rikae that she should not be so sure about my innocence as backstabbing has happened before.

So the “mother-hunter” yet again correcting her apprentice the ranger? But in this case they would not have a right to PM each other.

#148 Attacking tgwbs she says:

Also, all this "Rikae must definately be innocent" worries me. Yes, she just happens to have the perfect vote placement, but she herself said that she hadn't read through the thread. Maybe she didn't know that a vote for Glirdan would tie him with Lommy. Or perhaps she made a mistake and miscounted the votes, like I did, and thought to do the safest thing (for herself) and vote to lynch Glirdan. (The point I used for Nogrod applies here as well.) I'm not saying she's definately guilty, but we really should know better than discount someone for a mere Day 1 vote. I've only seen her as a wolf once, but I know she's very good at avoiding suspcion.

It might be the careful distancing between the two. It really could be. At least it seems Roa herself never got back to this even as she noted that Rikae is good in avoiding suspicions... But why would she say that to remind all of us of the fact?

#154

Also, if someone with more time could analyze Rikae- people getting ignored for for a vote is just waaay to convenient.

Saying this in earnest? Wishing people to do that indeed? Or making appearances towards the wolves that the two have nothing shared?

#243

And don't think I've forgotten Rikae. I still don't like how people are quick to discount her becuase of vote placement. If she's a wolf, we'll have played right into her hands.

#245 Makes an analysis on Rikae. It’s on the upper part of page7. I’ll only include the conclusion, but feel free to check it.

On the whole, she looks more innocent than guilty. However, there are a few things that irk me, and her reponse to my first post, which was used by a known wolf to attack me, makes me wonder. I can see her laughing evilly as a wolf because very few people suspect her, but I could also see her as a really good innocent. It's a tough call. I never like to exonerate anyone completely (that's how wolves slip by) but I don't think that justifies lynching her toDay. Tomorrow may be a another story.

This really looks like a friend keeping a distance. She made some points in the analysis but still ends up clearing her – with some “waffling”... (sorry Roa, I will be pointing to your waffling for some time to come after this game...)

A few short remarks to follow...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Really sorry to bring this here. But unless xyzzy is really fooling us miraculously and playing dumb, then he'd probably know that Lommy is not a "he" if they were playing together.

This is all we have of him in-game, though as you can see, it is actually an evidence based on "out-game" things (sex of the Downers, all too known topic. Just today I saw one older thread where I referred to Mac as "she").

YEs but Xyzzy has hardly been here .... I RPGed with Nilp for months uncertain of his gender .... I thought Morm was female until part through a game I modded.. I don't think that is significant....

[Nogrod]

Post-analysis thoughts on Rikae.

So either Rikae is a clever Ranger who fumbled a little one or two times but learned quickly from her mate Roa the hunter - and she had terrible hunches, defending Glirdy and Lommy both to their ends.

Or she is a wolf who first tried to jump on Roa but after that hunkered down and started playing more safely and got forwards with the flow mainly: suspecting tgwbs, Brinn and then me (all non-wolves) at the times these three were generally suspected. She also helped her mates to the end - even risking the attention of not voting Lommy yesterDay.

With this I would be totally at lost with her.

Roa's posting kind of clears her though. The way she handled her looks like she was trying to keep a distance but still cover for her.

With this I would say let's not lynch Rikae - unless there will be someone claiming rangership as well. And even thence I might be compelled to start with the lynching of the contestant.

I have promised to visit my mom and the bus goes in a minute. I will be back at least about an hour or two before the deadline...

[Mithalwen]

I would point out that it is tactically better for a ranger not to be on the money in the game discussions. Their priority is different in that they need to stay alive as long as possible and need to tread a fine line between neither being too threatening to the wolves that they are a night kill priority nor being so suspicious that they get lynched.. of course this is why they can get mistaken for low-flying wolves....

[Macalaure]

The Legate of Amon Lanc


Legate is truly eloquent. You really have to read between the lines with him. My comments are the ones in brackets.

#23
goes after Six and, lesser so, at Lommy - sophisticated debates are useless this early (ewww..) - suspects Rikae, Roa, Glirdan a little - adds his opinion role-reveals

#40
thinks the quarrel between Roa and tgwbs speaks for their innocence (I disagree) - says Roa might have a "teacher syndrome" (attempt of downplaying a powerful innocent?)

#48
pessimistic about catching wolves on Day One (already said I didn't like this) - suspects Nogrod because of his summary, even though Nogrod said it will be followed by conclusions (this could indeed have been a mistake by Legate) - suspects Brinniel because of things which are due to her schedule (this whole post really doesn't look good at all)

#57
hesitant about lynching xyzzy (more than hesitant, he gives points for and against, keeping all the options)

#63
takes back suspicion towards Brinn - continues discussing xyzzy - defends tgwbs from a weak point of mine

#72
reads sense into Gil's post and ups his suspicion of Lommy, because he had pondered something similar before - continues on xyzzy

#79
keeps on talking about lynching xyzzy (without giving away any preference about it, he's really sneaky here in fact)

#87
puts his suspicion of Nogrod aside and votes Lommy (at Glirdan 2, Lommy 2, tgwbs 2; this looks extremely innocent, especially since there were only few votes left. However, Lommy voted Glirdan, too. It's possible that the wolves were planning it this way, though this probably takes it too far. Legate's suspicion against Lommy is awfully thin, though on Day One, that's excusable)

#101
Lommy voters (Gil & tgwbs) don't look like wolves to him (fair point. However, if anybody did look like a wolf to him (why emphasise the Lommy voters otherwise?), why didn't he vote that one?)

----

#138
criticises my way of making Mith look innocent (good point, of course) - gives more points on Lommy (why now and not the Day before when they could've done harm to his seeming prime suspect?) - no longer wants to lynch Six because he's a newbie

#146
list of suspects (I'll just pick the interesting ones: ) - very uncertain about tgwbs - unsuspicious of Rikae - Mith seems innocent but watchworthy - will focus on Nogrod, Lommy and me

#159
keeps up suspicion on Lommy - sees connection between her and Six - drops me off his list - Nogrod is either a great wolf or a great innocent (don't say ) - will keep his vote for Lommy back (why does he emphasise this?) - realises the start of the Lommy-waggon

#167
misunderstood something I've said (though, if he's evil, it might have been an attempt to start a side discussion)

#181
confirms my explanation - dislikes meta-debate (I like it that he does, though, obviously, a wolf would think this way, too)

#193
states he has nothing to add (would a wolf dare to admit that?) - nobody said something to change his mind on Lommy (which is true, it went pretty slow during that time)

#201
won't vote for tgwbs because he doesn't seem like a wolf to him (knowing Lommy was evil, I thought so, too)

#209
votes Lommy when all is decided

#212
says even if he had voted earlier, it wouldn't have changed the vote

(it doesn't take a lot of imagination to think Legate held back his vote because he realised Lommy could indeed have been lynched. Though he clearly stated he will vote Lommy, he doesn't try to make others do so, too. He plays his suspicion suspiciously unaggressive. Then again, why didn't he just vote somebody else? Did he fear that after Lommy's death (somewhen later), people would have recognised this?)

----

#236
says what Roa says makes sense, even if she lied (huh?) - says Roa's points make Lommy look good, but doesn't put a lot of weight on them - thinks Roa suspicious because of her thoughts on Brinniel - "I doubt we can read something significant from this one. After all, wolves are wolves and do NOT want to be found." (there's that pessimism again)

#244
debates that debating Brinniel "without actively posting anything" is useless (indeed, indeed) - defends himself from Roa, again about Brinniel - doesn't like to vote Lommy when she can't show up

#258
Gil started to smell -

I do not meddle in "mainstream discussions", because there are many people involved in them and I generally do not want to meddle in their debate unless I have any concern of supporting either of them. I generally rather watch from the outside and wait if someone of them slips or something like that. Because if I focused on that dispute mainly, it would deepen the concentration on this particular problem, which would help to make the village's view quite narrow. And this is not what we need.

(can't believe he just said that, I must've overlooked it previously, otherwise it would've made me very suspicious. Compare to his comments on xyzzy!)

#261
says Gil might've tried to give tgwbs a wolf-hint - will flip a coin between Gil and Nogrod (a joke, though once more, he keeps up all his options)

#265
defends himself against Mith, who didn't like his vote-lingering

#269
quarrels with Mith again

#273
votes Gil - if Gil is innocent, look for Mith (I once vocally urged the lynching of Menelwolfmacil only because he said something like that)

#275
continues quarreling with Mith

#280
if Gil is innocent, Mith probably is a wolf (he said it again! *prepares stones*)

#282
suspected me of being seer before, trusts me therefore

#286
discusses with Nogrod and wants to know my dreams

#291
wants me to take away his comments on Mith (uhmm... no )

-----

#312
calls Nog and Mith 100% innocent (nah!) (he waffles a lot in this post)

#313
seconds Nogrod and likes the ranger to reveal

#314
wants to hear explanation from Rikae (has overlooked her short one)

#320
didn't expect Rikae to be the ranger - xyzzy and Six remain his only options

#322, #323. #326
tirade against Six (where is Legate and what have you done with him? No seriously, where's the eloquent and unagressive Legate gone? These posts look like he's trying to frame Six)

#327
clears xyzzy

#328
jokes - claims his intention was neutral when he started analysing - says he wrote "on walk" (he wrote on walk and was neutral in the beginning... why then does he condemn Six from his first sentence on? He contradicts himself on a very important point. Btw, he reacted on my comment exactly the way I thought he would if he was lupine)


Conclusion

Starts and urges many side discussions (xyzzy, Brinniel, Mith)
His behaviour towards Lommy could be interpreted evilly, but many things can. The important thing is, that it does not clear him of suspicion in any way.
His comment about Gil and Mith is straight out of the "Things wolves have to do if they want to be lynched by Mac"-manual.
His case against Six is far too condemning and one-sided to be innocent.

The chances are high that I will end up voting Legate toDay.


edit: If ever again I volunteer to make a long analysis, please, somebody beat some sense into me...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

edit: If ever again I volunteer to make a long analysis, please, somebody beat some sense into me...

Eg. back again.

I must say I have left Legate to fly under my radar almost the whole game, mostly due to those blasted meta-reasons as well. But now we can't lean on them anymore than when we had lot to choose from. So I'm also willing to consider this again. Hopefully no one is in a hurry to vote immediately... hopefully some people turn out in the first place... it would be really good to hear from Xyzzy and The Sixth.

[Mithalwen]

Thanks Mac that is helpful.

I have reread in the light of what we now know and have these conclusions.



Macalaure - Seer beyond doubt.
Mithalwen - Ordo. Not Lover .
Nogrod- Ordo



Rikae - ranger soi disant. No point in lynching today - if she is true let the wolves take her.. we have scope to wait.
The Sixth Wizard - seems innocent. If Rikae is lying I guess he is the ranger since he seemed to state that Roa was one of the Good guys having said I seemed to be.. but I may be reading too much into syntax.

xyzzy Not knowing thte gender I can accept but I thinkif they had liased he would have registered that Thinlomien + Lommy - I am sure in any discussion for example Glirdan would have addressed her as such. However with Lommy away over the weekend Xyzzy on the face of it seems like most likely candidate to miss a kill.

Legate Silver tongued but not ringing true.... stirring stuff up but never committing... and the interraction with Lommy doesn't seem right. She made a very funny dig which he never responded too... sorry if I am wrong but I think he will be my choice.

I really want to go home soon so any thoughts before I commit?

[Macalaure]

I really want to go home soon so any thoughts before I commit?

I think you're on a very good path.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

The Sixth Wizard - seems innocent. If Rikae is lying I guess he is the ranger since he seemed to state that Roa was one of the Good guys having said I seemed to be.. but I may be reading too much into syntax.

I recommend you to look at least at one of his posts for yourself. Though I might have gotten carried away by emotions, the content is not normal. He is either a wolf or a mystically unlucky and cursed person who posts like a wolf, talks like a wolf and looks like a wolf.

and the interraction with Lommy doesn't seem right. She made a very funny dig which he never responded too... sorry if I am wrong but I think he will be my choice.

Which? I don't know now what are you referring to.

[Mithalwen]

Hog on gas..... summat like that.. I may have missed a riposte but ... it was rather startling...

[Macalaure]

This is the one, I think.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Legate of Amon Lanc - He prances around like a hog on laughing gas. I hardly believe anything else than an ordo would be doing this. This is in contradiction with his late yesterday actions, which I find somewhat suspicious. I think he was not taking any stance and jumping around from one suspicion to another like a mad frog. (Sorry, Legate. ) Difficult to define...

edit: crossed

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

To Mac:

I generally do not want to meddle in their debate unless I have any concern of supporting either of them.

This is true, but it has nothing in common with the xyzzy-lynching thing. What was important for me at that moment was to find out whether the village can agree on lynching xyzzy, so that we use a non-harmful lynch for us (as it seemed at that point that he might not show at all), though as I brought forth when Menel told us that he's not going to be auto-killed if he shows up, he would be good even if "in hibernation", but counting into the number of living innocents (if he was one, Nogrod's 3/10 rule or how was it). Or whether I should try to sort my thoughts on someone else, because (as every time the first day) nobody was so sure about any of the possible lynchees.

[Nogrod]

I got a bit forced feeling from Legate's analysis on The Sixth but it is possible he got a bit carried away too. I do think Mac has a few considerable points on Legate as well but to make myself confident in either accepting them as a reason for lynching him or doubting them to be as inspired I need some time. Sorry, but I just came back and need to think a bit. *darn cigarettes that help you think*

[Mithalwen]

There is something so outrageous about that ...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

There is something so outrageous about that ...

In what? Please Mith, if you could, tell us more often where or to what do you refer to...

[Mithalwen]

Sorry ... this really seems the most plausible.. I would love to be certain that we could win today but unless we have a cursed the odds are in our favour .. can't believe we would have more than one wolf .. though if we do this is almost sure fire....

++ Legate of Amon Lanc

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

This is the one, I think.

Oh yes, I know. I didn't like it when I saw it, but I didn't think it has any real value, and starting about it would be starting a fighting debate, which is what we don't need ever.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

In what? Please Mith, if you could, tell us more often where or to what do you refer to...

Sorry I am rather stream of consciuousness ... but Mac is right..... it just seemed so outrageously rude to be a wolf insulting an innocent... I missed it at the time though...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Sorry I am rather stream of consciuousness ... but Mac is right..... it just seemed so outrageously rude to be a wolf insulting an innocent... I missed it at the time though...

And you are jumping on it like that? You always voted later. Anyway I think it is not good that we debate about me, since there are wolves elsewhere. I really suggest to look at Six's posts and make conclusions for yourselves. Aren't you a lover after all, Mith? Otherwise I can't explain why you jump on it like this.

[Nogrod]

Okay two things.

My impression from what kind of made me feel uneasy with Legate's analysis on The Sixth was the way he at one time made The Sixth look like a clumsy beginner wolf and on others he suspected him of being highly clever and cunning one. Now he can't be both at the same time - unless there is a trend where he had gotten advice during the Nights and gets better and better by Day. This should be checked. I try to do it if I have time.

I agree with Mith that it is perfectly plausible that a ranger needs to hunker down and stay out from the heat. And Rikae has had pretty low profile this far. But now after she revealed her role she has been at least as quiet as before. There is RL of course or deliberate decisions to play less involvedly, but I would think she would try to do something for our cause if she in fact is the ranger. So I'm just wondering where she is...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And Rikae has had pretty low profile this far. But now after she revealed her role she has been at least as quiet as before. There is RL of course or deliberate decisions to play less involvedly, but I would think she would try to do something for our cause if she in fact is the ranger. So I'm just wondering where she is...

Well, I also guess it's RL, but I don't think she'd necessary need to be around to help - what exactly would she be supposed to do? As a Ranger, she has no more information than we do, the only person she knew was Roa and she is dead. The only bonus of Ranger is at night, not at day.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well, I also guess it's RL, but I don't think she'd necessary need to be around to help - what exactly would she be supposed to do?

Two eyes see less than four, three brains pick up less than four... Taking account that both Xyzzy and The Sixth are having a very low profile here I would welcome anyone's considered point of view - either to gain insight or to start suspecting the one voicing it. Not the least one's that we should believe is an innocent...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Two eyes see less than four, three brains pick up less than four... Taking account that both Xyzzy and The Sixth are having a very low profile here I would welcome anyone's considered point of view - either to gain insight or to start suspecting the one voicing it. Not the least one's that we should believe is an innocent...

Oh, yes, on that I agree - I thought you were speaking of it because "she has to do it, she's the Ranger!" or something like that

Well it's not as live here as it seemed - ah, so apart from xyzzy&Six she's the only one who hasn't appeared here for some time?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well it's not as live here as it seemed - ah, so apart from xyzzy&Six she's the only one who hasn't appeared here for some time?

And it will get much worse if we're going to lynch the louder ones. Those villages with less than ten posts a Day overall are just pathetic... and give the wolves pretty free reign.

But there are other things too. In the worst scenario we have only one chance of missing the wolf. A second miss toMorrow can be the doom of the village if we have lovers / two cobblers. So we can't just shoot in the dark with Xyzzy I'm afraid.

Were he the wolf it would be the least earned victory in ww-history I guess?

What I have been a bit worried about Legate is that he has been really involved toDay. Waffling again I think I am, but that could speak of two things:
a) he's the wolf so near the victory that he does his best and tries all the possibilities to win the Day.
b) he's an innocent who sees the direness of our situation and does what he can to help us.

Hard to say. There are so many possible plots around that spotting the actual one is darn hard.

[Rikae]

Nogrod, because in your post just before mine, you seemed to expect the wolf to claim to be the ranger; plus, the wolf probably would rather kill me than attack Mac only to have me protect him.Out of Xxzzy, Legate, and Sixth, I'm most suspicious of Legate & his latest posts haven't helped his cause, as far as I'm concerned. What do you think, though?

EDIT: Crossed with a whole boatload of posts that for some reason didn't show up the first time I refreshed the page.

[xyzzy]

I'd like to point out that while I'm low-profile, it's because my playing style, and most of the people I paly with, are very low-profile.

Example...

By the way, I'm male... sorry for not making that obvious.

I suppose I must vote, though it'll probably be for the wrong person. Legate and Sixth seem evil for, ironically, totally opposite reasons. I guess in defense of other low-profile players, I shall vote:

++Legate

[Macalaure]

Nogrod and Mith are innocent as far as my dreams go.

Rikae said she's the ranger, and I believe her claim.

xyzzy is likely to have missed a kill, but good reasons for his innocence have been given. Tomorrow he'll be one to consider, of course, but not today.

Six is acting weird, but that seems to be his style. Meta speaks against his wolvishness.

Legate looks a good deal wolvish and wasn't able to shake off my suspicion.


That's how I see it at the moment and unless a sudden event changes things, I doubt I will vote somebody else than Legate.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

a) he's the wolf so near the victory that he does his best and tries all the possibilities to win the Day.
b) he's an innocent who sees the direness of our situation and does what he can to help us.

Well, if you want me to confess, I am neither of them. First, I don't believe in four wolves - and even if they are, then the rest are Six&Xyzzy, which is not such a problem, being they quite quiet ones. Even if you lynch me today, and they'd kill one of you at night, you'll be still three to two the next day, you'll lynch one, and then the other will kill one of you, that would be two on one, and you have him.
Oh, but to what I wanted to say - I am actually c) I am an innocent who, from this morning on, sees the lucky situation we are in, unless we lynch me, and do what I can to make our victory complete. Which, after I read Six's posts, probably means for me even revealing the remaining wolf, since I really think Six it is and no one else. After that, I want to have "slate clean" with my WW-survivals

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I saw this - so it's two votes for me? Please, people, no! You want to pro-longate this for one another day? Who's left to vote - me, Mac, Nogrod, Rikae, Six? Well it's obvious Six would be voting for me, so Mac, Nog, Rikae - I beg you to vote for Six, otherwise I'm gone! Or at best, Menel is flipping a coin.

(All this post is lead in almost hysterically-laughable tone. If you have lovers and two wolves, the grimmest variant, you might yet even lose if you vote me out.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Six is acting weird, but that seems to be his style. Meta speaks against his wolvishness.

Legate looks a good deal wolvish and wasn't able to shake off my suspicion.

Okay. Let's bang the last barrier down then. Legate was posting at the Downs about an half an hour before the Day started when the wolves missed their kill. So "meta" might also speak on his favour.

But as I said, we should drop the meta-stuff now as there are possibilities that these postings in the Downs do not necessarily clean anyone in the end. All the posting around the deadline were done by people who had only played once or twice before or none at all (I posted to the "Fellowship of the Fourth Age discussion thread" then also as I awaited to Menel's decision - and filled his PM-box - but deleted my post as I saw what was happening not to be seen by anyone that I actually was there so that it couldn't be used by the wolves or the innocents). They might have lost the deadline too withou a senior wolf to make sure of things (sorry Legate, I don't quite believe this from you but it's possible anyhow). The meta-reasons suited as narrow-downs to us earlier in the game, but I think we should now look at everyone from the same level.

The Sixth surely looks like he's quite lost many times but he also posts things that at least look pretty complicated. Xyzzy clearly hasd played a totally different game outside the Downs.

I must say I'm pretty insecure now. Hopefully I get some good ideas in less than an hour from now.

EDIT: X'd with Legate X2