Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Gil

Glirdan voted for sixth after he himself received 2 votes, so he could try and save a fellow wolf by voting for them, thus drawing any suspicion off of sixth.

Nice try, but only two people had voted. Sixth's vote and reasoning made him very suspicious, and the only reason he did not recieve more votes was because it was his first day of his first game, and everyone wanted to be nice. Glirdan's vote for Sixth clears him, if anything, since, given the timing, a turn around was highly possible. "Playing a wolf 101: When in doubt, throw a suspicious innocent to the mob."

I haven't dropped my suspicion of you since Day 1, and this certainly isn't abating it now.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Nice try, but only two people had voted. Sixth's vote and reasoning made him very suspicious, and the only reason he did not recieve more votes was because it was his first day of his first game, and everyone wanted to be nice. Glirdan's vote for Sixth clears him, if anything, since, given the timing, a turn around was highly possible. "Playing a wolf 101: When in doubt, throw a suspicious innocent to the mob."

I haven't dropped my suspicion of you since Day 1, and this certainly isn't abating it now.

now don't tell me your falling for the whole compassion thing too? as i said before, there is nobody you can trust in WW unless absolutely cleared by the Seer, which we don't know so far, but if you are defending sixth, then you are raising suspicion to yourself, for you and sitxh could be the other wolves we are hunting...

[Brinniel]

Responding to Rikae:

My last comment was a very rushed post, and what I wrote didn't exactly come out how I meant to say it. Lommy could very well be a wolf, though I still think her more innocent for reasons stated above.

At the time I voted, it looked like Lommy could be lynched, and there were a few who really wanted to save her. After all, the reasons to vote for her weren't good enough in my opinion, especially when she had no choice but to vote early on. At that moment, it looked like the only way to save her would be by voting tgwbs, and while I really have no clue if he is innocent or not, nor did I yesterday, I did not want to be the one responsible for lynching a possibly innocent tgwbs. tgwbs does make good analysis, and if he is innocent, I would hate to lose him so early in the game. Looking back at it, I could've (and maybe should've) voted for Glirdan, but I cross-posted with Rikae and voted before Nogrod and didn't think the voting would swing his way. And I chose not to vote for him for reasons I stated in my last post. I thought it would be bad of me to suddenly change my position...boy was I wrong...

Roa- Okay, correct me if I'm wrong, but checking back, it was Rikae's vote for Glirdan that tied him with Lommy. Nogrod's vote was what decided his fate. Makes Nogrod look pretty innocent to me.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Roa- Okay, correct me if I'm wrong, but checking back, it was Rikae's vote for Glirdan that tied him with Lommy. Nogrod's vote was what decided his fate. Makes Nogrod look pretty innocent to me.

You're right- I missed Legate's vote, who put Lommy in the lead over Glirdan and TGWBS. Rikae brought Glirdan up with her vote to tie him.

I question however- Assuming Nogrod is a wolf (a big assumption, but as I'm analyzing him right now and it doesn't look good, I'm willing to make it) where could he have voted? Gone for Xyzzy- a throw away vote, which would no doubt get heat? Voted Lommy to put her in the lead- if Lommy is innocent, and she definately appears that way, it clearly looks like an attempt to save Glirdan? Voted TGWBS- a three way tie which would be decided by dice roll, allowing a chance for Glirdan to die anyways, thus again looking like an attempt to protect Glirdan? Or, vote Glirdan- sealing his companion's fate but making him look innocent in return, thus allowing him a few days of un suspicion to drive the village as he pleases?

I tell you now, I wouldn't hesitate to sacrifice a fellow wolf. No "wise wolf" would. I wouldn't put it past Nogrod at all. Not to mention, all of the waffling he did before hand. (All coming up in my analysis.)

[Rikae]

Oh, now I see why there wasn't a wolf kill. It still does give us an advantage, anyway!

Regarding Nogrod, while I understand the possiblity of a wolf sacrificing another wolf, I don't think it would be likely at such an early stage. If Nogrod had saved Glirdan by voting for someone else, it wouldn't reflect badly on Nogrod until Glirdan's role was revealed, after all. The day one lynchee is usually innocent, anyway; if a wolf Nogrod had voted for TGWBS or Lommy, he could have saved his fellow wolf and "saving Glirdan" wouldn't be much of an issue if Glirdan wasn't a known wolf. It would look like a shot in the dark, which everyone's vote pretty much would be on Day 1.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Regarding Nogrod, while I understand the possiblity of a wolf sacrificing another wolf, I don't think it would be likely at such an early stage.

Don't be so sure- it's happened before. Ask Lommy. She's in the Fenris Wolf club because of her fellow wolf Ang, who managed to survive till the very last day, mostly because everyone regarded him as innocent for voting her. If I'm not mistaken, he was the deciding fact, when a vote the other way would have lynched someone else entirely. I remember- it was my very first game, and I was one of those who believed Ang innocent. I've done the very same thing, and so have many others.

[Nogrod]

Unusually I seem to be at least half-awake at this hour and can't resist commenting on a few points.

It's funny that Roa and an over-active Gil (does this sudden activity tell us anything? he's a wolf = bad for us, or he's just actually starting to play the game = good for us) are having a row. That would suggest to me that at least another one of them is innocent. If they were both wolves they would not argue like that as it would be quite clear that Roa could talk Gil to the gallows in a wink of an eye if she so wanted.

Originally Posted by Roa

Don't be so sure- it's happened before. Ask Lommy. She's in the Fenris Wolf club because of her fellow wolf Ang, who managed to survive till the very last day, mostly because everyone regarded him as innocent for voting her.

I agree with the "don't be so sure" -part here. Helping to lynch a mate is a good tactics for a werewolf in certain situations. I've done that myself as Roa has been keen to remind you.

But I'm a bit puzzled why always so intelligent Roa is so happy to jump on my vote and to try and make an issue out of it. It's the same kind of argument that some people here seem to throw on Lommy. "It was the reasonable thing to do (her vote on Glirdy and my vote on Glirdy), but if s/he were a wolf, s/he would have done the same..." That's hardly an argument. If a vote is reasonable for an innocent and if a witty wolf would thence do the same thing, it can't be counted as an argument for someone's lupinity.

With that logic everyone who voted reasonably should be seen as especially suspicious.

And that's hardly the way Roa herself thinks about the matters, right? I don't remember seeing Roa who would have carried the card of random voting yet...

Now I need to get to sleep at last. Sad I didn't have time to see Roa's analysis which I kind of hoped for. It seems she makes it with piety - at least with what comes to the time she has spent with it...

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But I'm a bit puzzled why always so intelligent Roa is so happy to jump on my vote and to try and make an issue out of it. It's the same kind of argument that some people here seem to throw on Lommy.

It's not that I find your vote suspicious. In fact if it were your vote alone, I wouldn't find you suspicious at all. (Well, at least not more suspicious than anyone else.) I'm merely arguing that it doesn't make you unsuspicious, if that makes any sense. People are keen to exonerate you for the placement of your vote. I'm telling them why that's foolish.

Now I need to get to sleep at last. Sad I didn't have time to see Roa's analysis which I kind of hoped for. It seems she makes it with piety - at least with what comes to the time she has spent with it...

I'm especially pious when analyzing you, dear. (Finally found a use for that!) If you want it done quickly next time, don't post so much.

[The Sixth Wizard]

Oh man, people I thought were innocent are plastering ridiculous accusations over each other, this only makes it harder to tell who's the wolf . . . What's more they're plastering things over me!

Glirdan voted for sixth after he himself received 2 votes, so he could try and save a fellow wolf by voting for them, thus drawing any suspicion off of sixth.

That was a bit of a big assumption, don't you think? After only two votes, both near the start of the day, one by a newbie (me) and one by a suspect (Lommy), do you think Glirdan would really have given himself up to his fate to make me look completely innocent? And do you think that I would have accused him so early on the game?

now don't tell me your falling for the whole compassion thing too? as i said before, there is nobody you can trust in WW unless absolutely cleared by the Seer, which we don't know so far, but if you are defending sixth, then you are raising suspicion to yourself, for you and sitxh could be the other wolves we are hunting...

Cobbler?

My new list of suspects...

TGWBS
Legate of Amon Lanc
Brinniel
Gil-Galad

Retalitory? Moi?

[Roa_Aoife]

Nogrod (Summary in regular, thoughts in Itallics, final analysis in Bold)
Day 1

1st post - Agrees with Mac about people bemoaning Day 1, says the village should keep talking with less roleplay, will suspect people more for saying Day 1's are useless, thinks Roa was making a reasonable point, but remembers Roa is reasonable as a villain, hesitates to lynch Glirdy based on record, confirms that Lommy has no choice but to vote early

Standard "Day 1's are NOT useless" spiel, to be expected, interesting "Roa makes sense but could still be evil" point, followed by, "Glirdy looks bad but could be innocent," followed by, "Loomy has a valid excuse, but could be using that to her evil advantage." Waaaay more waffling in the first post than I expect from Nogrod. Very inconclusive for him. Sets off some alarms.

2nd post - Thinks Mac, Rikae, and Roa are being "cool and wise" but worries that they could be deceptive, thought Rikae was suspicious for point against Roa, but finds her sharing the suspicion of TGWBS, thinks TGWBS suspicion of Lommy is suspicious, doesn't think Lommy is innocent, but thinks the case against her is worrying, thinks that a wise wolf relaxes on Day 1, but doesn't rule out a wolf trying to steer the voting, concerned by Legate, also sixth, but doesn't want to lynch him on his first day.

Again with the waffling. For talking so much, he says very little of impact. His best suspicion is TGWBS, but basically for his case against Lommy, whom NOgrod waffles over some more. This is followed by a lot of, "So and so is confusing, so and so is odd" but nothing concrete. He said himself that a wise wolf sits back and lets the innocents decide who to lynch- so far, his posting style looks like just that. Even worse, he looks like what Iwas doing as a cobbler, throwing a little bit of suspicion everywhere and letting the innocents decide who to go after.

3rd post - points out that the fault of a "flood" is not the first poster but those who want to carry on the discussion, thinks the discussion surrounding Roa's post will be usefull later.

Actually, this post seems fine. At least he says something somewhat definite.

4th post - Lists the votes and the stated reasons for each vote, plus vote count

He's putting some meat into his vote counts now. I wonder if he'll draw any conclusions or continue waffling.

5th post -
Lommy's vote for Glirdan- not suspicious, but doesn't make her innocent, doesn't want to lynch her just yet.
See: Waffling
Sixth's vote for Glirdan- see Lommy
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/waffling
Glirdan's vote for Sixth - doesn't like retaliatory voting, thinks it's counter productive to never vote like that, tangent about Day 1's, uncomforatble lynching Glirdan, wants to think about it
What's that sign say? oh, "Waffle House"
Roa for TGWBS - doesn't think the reasoning is good, doesn't want to vote her with out more evidence
Most conclusive thing yet
Gil for Lommy - disturbing, "confused" about his mentioning of the gifteds, wonders about Roa suspecting Gil for the same reason, (?) doesn't want to lynch him for the same reasons he doesn't want to lynch Glirdan- the two usually turn out innocent
That defense almost worked for the Lupine Glirdan. Almost.
TGWBS for Lommy - somewhat suspicious and unnerving, thinks the case is weak, thinks TGWBS is voting in the same way he did when he was a wolf (last game), suspected him then for the same reasons, not impossible for him to be a wolf two days in a row, doesn't want to vote him on Day 1.
He almost had it, he really did. Almost a genuine solid anything, but it was not to be. Dashed upon the accursed rocks of "But he could be helpful if he's not evil, even though he's clearly evil looking."
Feels more unsure of everything, vaguely pointing to the quiet

This is the most surprising of all. The normal Nogrod will usually aim for the quiet first, but here his gesturung towards them is almost feeble! I know you like to be cautious, but this is taking it too far. Where's the Nogrod who pulled a case against me literally out of thin air? I'm getting deeply concerned by this behavior.

6th post - question about time

7th post - Wants to relook at TGWBS, gives credence to Mith's plan to lynch xyzzy, says mathmatically he has about a 3/13 chance of being a wolf

The waffling aside, this has all the alarms ringing. Just a few posts ago, we had a possiblity of catching a wolf. Now he might go for a mostly random vote? He didn't want to kill Sixth because it was his first day of his first game, but the same doesn't apply to Xyzzy? Further more, he has a perfectly good lynch candidate, the most suspicion person he has, and somehow now, he's dropped him. What happened to looking at TGWBS further? This looks a great deal like a wolf trying to feel out his fellow players to see where the lynch is likely to go.

8th post - worries that waiting to lynch xyzzy will cause us to forget him enitrely, still "puzzled" by TGWBS, some of what TGWBS says makes sense, but other things are more suspicious, thinks TGWBS feels more malevolent than inocent, hopes Brinniel returns, wonders where Rikae is

Again he thinks TGWBS is supicious, but does nothing about it.

9th post - Thinks that lynching xyzzy may be best if she isn't coming back, but is unsure about that, thinks it's better if we vote for a possible wolf who's been present

And TGWBS doesn't count? Oh right, if he's innocent (because he's clearly not suspicious in anyway) he'll be very useful later

10th post - Thoughts on everyone Conclusions, maybe?
Upstairs
Gil and Glirdan - Post normally and look highly suspicious. Could go either way. Waffle, waffle, waffle
Sixth - first timer, doesn't want to vote for him
Roa and Thin - could be evil, but doesn't want to vote for them with so little evidence
I almost wouldn't mind him suspecting me, if it meant he be conclusive about something
Mac and Mith - not suspicious at all, but doesn't want to call them innocents "No way"
Brinniel - Sensible, doesn't suspect her anymore than anyone else
that's like a conclusion
Downstairs
Rikae and Legate - slightly suspicious
first I've heard of it
TGWBS - Worried about him, but still not dure he wants to lynch him
Of course not, why lynch someone you suspect, when you can lynch someone you have even more doubts about?
Xyzzy - already discussed
last resort safety vote, got it.

One or two wolves could be in upstairs list, but wants to vote for someone from downstairs list, or maybe Gil or Glirdan

Wait, so all this time you've been saying "Yeah, Glirdan looks suspicious, but he always does, and he's always innocent. I don't want to vote for him." Now, he suddenly a possible lynch candidate? And you prefer to vote from someone in the "downstairs" section (carefully not labeled with strong wording such as "More suspicious") where TGWBS is, but you don't mention him. The only consistancy you've had so far is that he looks more suspicious than anyone else, and yet you don't even mention him as a possible vote.

11th post - wants to wait for xyzzy

I'm not even gonna bother.

12th post - urges village not to shy away from opinions

You're one to talk

13th post - "Seven votes to cast - probably six as Xyzzy is one of them - and the leaders in votes have two each... Everything is possible."

14th post - Disagrees the TGWBS might be gifted for being sensitive to gifted talk- thinks a gifted would merely shy away from discussion.

Why is it that the only conlusions so far have nothing to do with catching wolves?

15th post - Agrees with Mac's vote for TGWBS, thinks it's reasonable, but disagrees with how he voted, "no further points or taking part on the discussion," thinks it's detached and that a wolf would do the same, mentioning that he might be killed, suggests everyone look at Mac and Roa (because Roa "jumped" on Gil)

So, you agree that TGWBS is suspicious, but instead of actually voting for him, you find someone else who voted for TGWBS suspicious. And why? Because he voted and left. No one else who did that merited suspicion from you, why him? And, just because it's iritating me- I didn't jump on Gil, so much as I mentioned that it made me suspicious of him, which you did as well. I recall many wolves accusing innocents of behavior that they themselves were doing in the past. It's in that book that Lommy mentioned, "How to Spot a wolf."

16th post - Updated list, thinks he might vote Mac, but doesn't want to spread the vote

Voting TGWBS, your primary suspect from your second post on wouldn't spread the vote.

17th post - Might consider joining xyzzy vote, would more likely vote Mac than TGWBS, doesn't want to vote either, thinks Mac's way of playing is too clean

where did that come from? You went from slight suspicion to likely vote in three posts, all without Mac doing anything at all! And what's with this xyzzy nonsense? You look like a wolf trying to find a safe place to hide.

18th post - Asks if anyone wants to go with Mac or Xyzzy

I'm incredualous at this. Out right asking for people to jump on a bandwagon either for someone who hasn't even shown up yet, or for someone whom suspicion of just matierialized out of no where. Why did he suddenly drop TGWBS? Sure, he didn't want to vote for him because he might be useful, but the same certainly applies to Mac. Why is it better to vote Mac than TGWBS? I can only think of one reason- Lommy is tied for the lead (I'm counting the cross posting as Nogrod didn't know she was in the lead) with Glirdan and TGWBS. He's blatantly encouraging everyone to lynch someone else, a substitute who hasn't even gotten votes yet. He said himself- nything could happen.

19th post - Doesn't want Lommy to go on such futile reasoning, thinks we should watch Legate

but it's okay for Mac to go on the same?

20th post - Decides to kill Glirdan "a shot in the dark"

Lommy makes a convenient excuse to suddenly change your mind about killing Glirdan and gaining a very secure seat for the next few Days. Why did you drop your suspicion on TGWBS for Mac? A vote for TGWBS would have at least given a chance for your top suspect to go down. I might expect this from someone else, but not from you, Nogrod. You're usually more definitive.

21st post - "I guess we got lots to think from these last moments for toMorrow..."

Overall, this is not the Nogrod I'm used to. He talks alot with out saying anything definitive. In fact, he reminds me of a wolfish SPM. Not to mention he completely droped his suspicion of TGWBS when there was a real possibilty of getting him lynched. Not a true contradiction, prehaps, becuase he did say repeatedly that he didn't want to vote for TGWBS. Of course he also said the same about Mac, and then turned around and blatantly tried to start a bandwagon for him in the last minutes. All Day he said nothing certain, which looks to me like he was trying to keep his options open, waiting like a wise wolf, as he so elegantly put it, to see who the unknowing villagers would lynch. When it looked like Glirdan was going to be lynched, he dropped his "Glirdan is usually innocent" attitude, and went for a vote that would no doubt make him look innocent to everyone. (See, it worked.)

The question remains- is this enough to lynch him? In the end, it comes down to odd behavior, and "fluff" as it were. Alarm bells are ringing, and unless he can justify this satisfactorily, or something better comes along (I'd really like to see an analysis of the others, plus one of TGWBS and Legate), he'll definitely be at the top of my list.

I have a lot to do in the morning, so I need to sign off now. Becuase of my schedule I may not be able to vote. However, I would rather not vote at all than vote now. See the admin thread for my reasons.

[Brinniel]

Gil- Your suspicions on Lommy are rather confusing. At first you say:

Lommy, sixth, nogrod and rikae are the only ones to have voted for Glirdan, so by following the math, they obviously tend to be the more innocent ones then

And then you place on your suspicious list:

suspicious ~ Lommy, sixth

Now, perhaps you are going more on gut instinct rather than mathematical reason. Do you still suspect her for the same reasons as your comment yesterDay?

but i got a little itch from Lommy's post... she just came right out and tried to defend Roa... could be a virtuous villager, but everyone should know that if they are an ordinary, they are on their own

If you could please further explain your reason here, I'd appreciate it.

Roa- Like always, you are indeed persuasive. And perhaps I am more easily convinced now that I don't really suspect like I did yesterDay, in fact, I hardly suspect you at all anymore. Of course, I won't completely let you off the hook; I am still wary and would hate to be completely misguided...again. Now, I haven't really had a reason to suspect Nogrod thus far, but your argument does seem quite clear. Nogrod still isn't at the top of my suspicion list, but I have bumped him from "possibly innocent" to "unsure." And I will be sure to take a good look at his future posts.

I would still like to analyze some possible suspects, but it is getting late, so I might not get that far before retiring for the night. I think I will get up earlier than normal to look deeper into this thread, as I have class in the afternoon and won't be back until an hour before deadline, which won't give me enough time to do any good analysis.

[Thinlómien]

People seem rather edgy and snappy considering that we're doing really well, one wolf dead and no dead innocents this far...

Even though I'm happy that no one died last night, I would almost have preferred someone dead. Before you start shouting: "Eek! She wants the wolves to kill us! Lynch her!" please listen to my reasoning . We outnumber the wolves right now quite clearly at this phase so it would not have been that horrible to lose one of us to gain evidence. I don't doubt there's plenty of evidence in yesterDay's voting and discussion - especially as the lynched one was a nasty lycanthrope - but kill evidence always gives some further information about the wolves' way of thinking and who are they afraid of/want to see dead, and thus clues of who they might be. But maybe it's good this way after all, the more innocents alive, the better for us, even one villager can make the difference. (So what was the point? I was just thinking aloud I guess... )

Roa, I find your analysis of Noggie extremely funny, but I've not yet decided whether I agree with it or not.

A longer post to come...

[Brinniel]

For a big chunk of the end of Day One, there was a discussion on whether to vote for xyzzy. As of right now, I feel pretty confident that at least one wolf was involved in this debate.

Here are some quotes that come from this discussion:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So if it looks like pure random or very improbable in the end we should perhaps consider Xyzzy?

Originally Posted by Mac

It seems like Xyzzy hasn't realised that the game has started. Lynching newbies on Day One is not nice.

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, I would say this is not nice if xyzzy plans to show yet - maybe he has some troubles we don't know about...

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I know it is not "nice" and that it is cynical and if htey had logged on more recently I wouldn't have suggested it but I will seriously consider doing so if I don't become more certain of the guilt of the current votees ..

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Anyways, I don't intend on voting for him. I do not like to vote for people who have not had the chance to speak. Let us wait and see if he shows up toMorrow, and then we can come up with a decision.

Originally Posted by Legate

what do you think about xyzzy? Is there a possibility to vote for him, or are we leaving this out? I am for that if nothing, it would not harm the village - probably. But if someone else, then someone else... just to know who to vote for.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I know I will be thought a hard hearted witch for this but I think I am still seriouly considering going for Xzzy.....

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I think it would be a waste of toDay to vote xyzzy, when we can vote for someone who is actually suspicious. I plan to give him at least another Day to show up and I ask that everyone else does the same.

Originally Posted by Legate

it seems that it's up to us whether to lynch or not xyzzy. For this, I'd maybe reconsider and wait. Reversing Nogrod's theory, he's 10/13 an ordo, so even if he does not do anything, he is still an ordo to count against the wolf numbers

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

his is cruel but I would rather hang fire on TGWBS and take my chance - Brinniel we don't have later ...
++ Xyzzy

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If there is to be a Xyzzy vote, I might consider joining it as the other possibilities look quite problematic.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Nothing else to do now. Better to shoot at darkness with Glirdy than Lommy.
++ Glirdan

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, if you said earlier, I might have voted for xyzzy. I hope I'm not wrong.

Oh geez, that's a lot of quotes... But it basically summarizes the entire discussion.

Okay, we do not know for sure whether xyzzy is innocent, but for right now let's theorize in the instance that he is...

Mac and I were the only two who were directly against voting for him. Mac didn't want to kill off a newbie on Day One and I wanted to give him another chance to show up. I have no regrets about my stance to not lynch him yet, and I still think it was for a good reason.

Legate, however, seemed a bit confused on whether or not to vote for him. He thought about it, but ended up deciding to wait and voted instead for Lommy. After Mithalwen's vote, he again switched back to thinking he should've voted for xyzzy, but by then it was too late. I suppose we could keep an eye on Legate, but I don't think what happened here makes him seriously suspicious. He seems more like an innocent caught in the middle of confusion on who to vote for and feeling a rushed with the deadline only minutes away.

Nogrod was the one who originally came up with the idea to vote xyzzy, and Mithalwen followed in agreement, though she was the only one who ended up voting for him. Now if xyzzy is innocent, then a werewolf Nogrod or Mithalwen, or even both, would knowingly push for the lynching of an innocent, using his absence as an excuse.

If Mithalwen were a wolf, she could play her innocence saying she voted for xyzzy because she was rushed and unsure on who else to vote for, and she'd rather vote for an absent innocent than a present one. Seems like a good excuse...or a credible cover.

Now let's say if Nogrod is a wolf, whether he is one with Mithalwen or not, the most sensible thing for him to do is to separate himself from her and her single vote for xyzzy and vote someone else instead. Now it seems unlikely that a werewolf would send a fellow wolf to his grave, but if Roa is right in her theory, then it makes perfect sense. After all, what better way to lose suspicion than to vote for the werewolf?

If Mithalwen or Nogrod are wolves, then why would Mithalwen vote xyzzy over tgwbs and Nogrod vote Glirdan over Lommy? Of course, the most obvious answer could be that either Lommy or tgwbs are wolves. But then, we also must remember at this time Lommy and tgwbs were tied in votes with Glirdan. If either had voted for one of them, they could've easily helped to seal the fate of an innocent...which could end up directing suspicion towards them.

Alright, I know this is a major theory I have here, and while I may quite possibly be completely off, I still think we should keep it into consideration. It's probably very unlikely that both of them are wolves, though it could happen. If one of them is a wolf, then I think it is more likely to be Mithalwen based on her voting.

I'm still considering Gil and Rikae as slightly suspicious (perhaps this comes from more of a hunch than anything), but since I do not immediately see any major evidence going against them as of right now, and I would like to go to bed, I will not worry about them until later.

EDIT: X-ed with Lommy

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mac

2. Sixth for Glirdan ~ No way would a wolf have voted like this.

I'm not too sure. A cunning and bold wolf might. But I agree that a Sixthwolf wouldn't probably, since that sounds more like some experienced player's trick.
I don't like how Mac is trying to make everything too simple. This, and the things he said about me and Brinn. Kind of raises my eyebrows.

Just a little piece of advice for you, Sixth. If you think someone looks gifted, don't say it aloud, since the wolves might pick your gifted-suspect (that they'd not have noticed before) and if they too think s/he looks gifted, kill him/her.

As you can see I am a great Thinlomien supporter I'm afraid.

Haha, thank you.

What has happened to Gil??? I quite like his new self, and would not like voting him right now without strong judgement.

Originally Posted by Roa

Don't be so sure- it's happened before. Ask Lommy.

Don't ask me. I have traumas. (Not really. ) Even though that game might have something to do with the fact that I never want to be a wolf again... *shudders*
Anyway, enough with old, funny memories. Roa's right here. A wolf could very well do a thing like that.

I'm suspicious of TGWBS. I know I always am, but his actions yesterday were quite weird and eyebrow-raising. I will take a closer look at him before leaving.

I'll unfortunately have to leave and vote within an hour, I hope I manage to make a few posts before it.

edit: xed with Brinn

[Thinlómien]

Brinniel - I think she's innocent. I think she seems genuine when speaking about her "faults" and she's reasonable and has good points, especially that last post of hers was very interesting. This far, I have no reason to particularly suspect her.

Gil-Galad - Like I said, I like his new self. I don't know whether he's innocent or not, but as it's still early game and he isn't particularly suspicious I suggest we keep him around and see what happens... It's be a pity to "reward" him for his increased participation by lynching him. So this early, I won't be voting him unless he is clearly suspicious. Later, I won't be giving him any benefits.

Legate of Amon Lanc - He prances around like a hog on laughing gas. I hardly believe anything else than an ordo would be doing this. This is in contradiction with his late yesterday actions, which I find somewhat suspicious. I think he was not taking any stance and jumping around from one suspicion to another like a mad frog. (Sorry, Legate. ) Difficult to define...

Macalaure - He's far too hasty and edgy! Where has his normal, cozy self disappeared? Suspicious...

Mithalwen - I always have hard time suspecting her since her posting style - which is so sympathic and amusing - somehow always set my alarms off. She feels innocent, but Brinn has very good points about her possible guilt. So I think she's kind of "middle/gray zone" for me.

Nogrod - Unlike Roa, I think he seems mostly like his normal self. But that does ceratinly not mean he's innocent, he seems the same as a wolf too. Though I think he's maybe summarising more than he usually does this early in the game... hiding behind summaries? Anyway, it's such a minor thing I won't let it grab my attention. So all in all, Nogrod as well is in the "gray zone" for me.

Rikae - Could be any way. I honestly don't have any idea about her. Need s to be watched.

Roa_Aoife - Seems innocentish for her reasonableness and her day1 interactions with Glirdy. However, I think her cause against Noggie was a bit too fierce and slightly far-fetched. For example, she (IMO) totally unnecessarily attacks Nogrod's minor gut-suspections. Anyway, I think Roa seems more innocent than guilty.

the guy who be short - His case against me is quite stupid. I mean, he seems to try to make everything say suspicious in some way. He also seems to deliberatedly misunderstand Roa. Also Roa had good points against him.

The Sixth Wizard - Judging on his vote, Glirdy's vote for him and the general feel of him, he seems innocent-ish. I remain quite unsure about him, though, before I hear more of him and can make more solid conclusions.

xyzzy - Well not much to say but unless he starts posting more frequently, I wouldn't mind lynching him in such a easy situation for us as it's right now. (One wolf already dead, all innocents still alive.)

I'll probably be voting TGWBS or Mac, unless I get some last-minute-frenzy against Mith or Legate.

[Thinlómien]

++TGWBS

His case against me was ill-constructed.

Originally Posted by he

Isn't that what Roa, who she defends, was doing?

I was not defending Roa in general, and that should be easy to see. I said I found nothing wrong with her points. I didn't say that role talk is suspicious. If I had said so, I'd definitely be flip-floppery. But I said we shouldn't specualte about them too much, meaning that it's a secondary thing and gets the attention away from the important. Also, he deliberatedly seems to misinterpret Roa by saying she says gifteds shouldn't reveal. Furthermore, like Roa pointed out, he says that gifted-talk is no way helpful, but continues it himself. He seems very edgy/jumpy too.

And the worst crime, he's a conservatist...

Originally Posted by TGWBS

I am suspicious of Thinlomien for a number of factors. Observe-ye:
. . .
4. Tradition!

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

This is a point with which I don't disagree at all! I must say I will be looking tgwbs much more closely toDay. He raised my suspicions yesterDay and this kind of stuff brings me back to suspect him even more. Good point.

Um, I only said it would've been a good move to save Glirdan, which is actually quite obvious, and not a very good point. And "His reasoning isn't the best" surely isn't.
It's weird you point this one out like that.


Concerning Brinniel, I think I'll buy her explanations for yesterday. I'll put her back to 'averagely suspicious'.


Roa's analysis, wow... truly excellent. *bows*
... and appetizing as well. Is anybody else fancying a waffle right now?


Let's have a look at Nog's voting situation:

If Nogrod is evil, then in all probability either tgwbs or Lommy aren't (4 wolves in a village of 13? No way.)

Case 1: Lommy is evil.
Wouldn't he have secretly welcomed my vote for tgwbs then? Sure he wouldn't be open about it, but why'd he be so adverse to it? I think an evil Nogrod would've reacted along the lines of "tgwbs? Hmm, yeah, well, maybe, what do the others think?" Unless.. he was already sure he wanted to do some backstabbing at this point, and my vote gave an alternative he didn't, in fact, welcome anymore.

Case 2: tgwbs is evil.
Nogrod's "tgwbs is suspicious but I will rather shoot into the dark than vote for him" looks horrible in this light. Actually, it looks almost too horrible and obvious.

Case 3: they're both innocent.
In that case, Nogrod had all the options he wanted to save Glirdan without drawing attention to himself. If we were talking about anybody else but Nogrod, I would probably dismiss this possibility, but Glirdan's game, where Wolfgrod lynched more wolves than the innocents did, still gives me shudders.

I'm really puzzled about Nogrod and looking forward to his reaction to Roa.

Originally Posted by Lommy

People seem rather edgy and snappy considering that we're doing really well, one wolf dead and no dead innocents this far...

You know, these are the tiny things that really make my alarms ring. Why, why, would an innocent say things along the lines of: "Oh, come on, we're doing well, let's just play it the easy way now"?


edit: crossed with Lommy's last two

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I only just read through the today's posts, so these are just immediate reactions to what I marked down while reading them through. (revising it, it is quite chaotic) Will follow after some time with forming my opinions on everyone.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

8. Mith for Xyzzy ~ This looks like throwing away, but she was encouraging everybody to follow her vote. I think it looks quite innocentish.

I marked this one, since saying "it looks quite innocentish" is quite easy way to dispatch the case. Though I wasn't suspicious about Mith for that, I would look for any possible connection between Mith&Mac, just to be sure.

Mac's post reminded me yet of something Lommy said yesterday, I marked it, so I post it here:

Originally Posted by Lommy

He looks quite bad. (Though possibly he looks too bad to be a real baddie. )

This is why I suspected Lommy in the first place. I think generally, ambivalence is the typical sign of werewolfery. "Oh, I would vote this [fellow wolf], but perhaps I am just too suspicious." "I don't know about this [innocent villager], but I just am not sure."

The problem is: a) It might be quite stupid of Lommy being a wolf to say such things as above. b) Voted for her comrade? It's dangerous because someone might jump the bandwaggon and she couldn't know the vote on Glirdan would be safe, on the other hand, early votes go often out later in the day. How could she know if the vote will win? Be she a wolf or not, true is, what Mac says, that she probably had no better option to vote at that moment. (and I don't see anything suspicious on Mac saying that... who said that? Roa?)

Originally Posted by Six

I don't think Thinlomien was using some wolf kill wolf strategy. I think that might just be a bit too open on the first day.

But she didn't know at that time, so it actually wasn't open at all. It might have played to her favor that she didn't have enough time. Cf. above.

Originally Posted by Roa

Sixth looks most innocent (especially given Glirdan's reaction)

I agree with this, though for me better argument than Glirdan's reaction is that he was one to join the Glirdan bandwaggon. If he didn't, the solitary vote of Lommy might have gone unnoticed or whatever... so I don't think Sixth guilty now. While I suspected him yesterday, I didn't want to vote for him for the "killing newbies is not nice" reason, and now, since Glirdan proved to be a wolf, I think him innocent. Though by this reason I would consider Lommy innocent as well, she was the first one to vote for Glirdan and could not be sure what it will produce, cf. above, so this suspicion lasts.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Oh, now I see why there wasn't a wolf kill. It still does give us an advantage, anyway!

You see why there wasn't a wolf kill? Tell us, why?

Oh, and one thing I just have to add:

Originally Posted by xyzzy

Who's Lommy? Is that the Thin-something-or-another-with-non-English-characters-thrown-in guy?

Yes, she is that guy.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy's last two and Mac's

[Nogrod]

I don't know what to say of Roa's little analysis... funny perhaps is the right word? But it also make me a bit more worried about Roa.

So why?

Firstly: The main argument seems to be that I waffle and am not decisve. I myself am more than suspicious of people who are very decisive on Day1's. Being decisive this early normally means that one has some knowledge we others don't have. Or that it's a wolf who tries to cover her/his tracks in a monomania.

Secondly: It looks like it is just a bit too fabricated. As I've said before, I know Roa to be an extremely good player and she really has an evil eye with her summarisings / analyses. But this is just not the quality I've used to. And even though I know she loves to show how good she is in making damning analyses, as a villager she would in the end wish to help us others and not try to artifically make points from where there are none.

Just a few corrections.

I'm a wolf because I didn't want to lynch tgwbs yesterDay? Now that would be quite stupid from a wolf-Noggie. Were he a wolf it would have been my best choice as it would look pretty good in my voting record and were he not I would have gotten rid of a formidable enemy quite easily leaving no suspicious tracks behind.

I brought Mac up because I thought he was acting suspiciously. That happened late in the game, not on the early stages. You can't suspect someone's actions before they act... Mac's early posting looked okay, his late posting didn't.

Why I was suddenly ready to go for Glirdy? Simply because it was a choice between him and Lommy. Both were shots in the dark for me, but I believe Lommy can make a difference if innocent - and she had acted reasonably, unlike Glirdy who had acted suspiciously.

Xyzzy then? Maybe all of you who make your points about that affair should read what was said about lynching him yesterDay once more before you continue? Mith suggested the "cynical idea" based on the possibility that he will not join the game in the first place (it would not have been the first time when a first-timer doesn't show up). I thought it worth considering as Mith said he had been online on Saturday the last time. I voiced my concern that there is a possibility he could show up on some phase of the game and then it would be cruel (although I don't know how long one could be allowed to not appear just because they are newbies). After Brinn told us about the birthday stuff, I decided not to pursue that track anymore.

[Nogrod]

I'm inclined to trust Brinn and The Sixth right now. And I have no major worries about Legate, Mith or Rikae. Xyzzy I can't say anything about.

Gil and Lommy are hard to judge. There are reasons to suspect them and there are reasons to judge them innocent. Need to look at them more closely toDay.

I have some slight concerns on Roa and Mac, but I don't believe (at least yet) that they could both be wolves so I must be wrong at least with the other one of them, possibly both.

tgwbs still tops my list of suspicions. Where is he now, anyway?

I'll be away for a few hours but will be back in good time to do some analysis - I hope to have time enough to look at Gil, Lommy, Roa and Mac - and of course tgwbs.

[the guy who be short]

Well, I'm here now.

I'll just say my general feelings, having read over the thread, before I go on to proper analysis of yesterday's going-ons and try to draw conclusions from them.

I am still suspicious of Lommy, and especially don't like the way she's voted for me again. More on that later. I'm also very wary of Roa, who has built a case against Nogrod out of air (or waffles). I think these two are likely to be a lupine pair.

Finally:

and honestly: do you think someone could "analyse" tgwbs in less than two minutes?).

17 years and they still don't know what's wrong with me!

[the guy who be short]

Edit: From above, I didn't mean "again." Lommy has only voted for me once so far, of course.

Lommy

She's just voted for me for voting for her with an "ill constructed" case. Retaliation is not in the village's interests, and I feel my case to be both justified and reinforced by her behaviour today.

Firstly, in her first post, she supports Roa's post about the gifteds. Rikae (sensibly, in my opinion) picks holes in Roa's argument, but Lommy thinks she's innocent too, merely misunderstanding. She attacks Glirdan for supporting Rikae's "feeblish accusations" - feeble-ish? It's a sound accusation. Roa advocates mistrust of any person revealing themselves as gifted; how is that possibly good? She then votes for Glirdan.

To me, with hindsight, this looks very much like a wolf-on-wolf vote. Lommy says her evidence is feeble, so she can distance herself from it in the future, but she still manages to vote for a fellow wolf. Saying her evidence is feeble also decreases the potential of the vote becoming a bandwagon.


In response to Lommy's post today:

I was not defending Roa in general, and that should be easy to see. I said I found nothing wrong with her points.

Same difference. If you agree with someone's points, you agree with them.

I didn't say that role talk is suspicious. If I had said so, I'd definitely be flip-floppery. But I said we shouldn't specualte about them too much, meaning that it's a secondary thing and gets the attention away from the important.

Fair enough. This is a problem is misinterpretation on my part; I thought the comment about role talk meant that Lommy thought role-talk in general should be discouraged.

Also, he deliberatedly seems to misinterpret Roa by saying she says gifteds shouldn't reveal.

She says we shouldn't trust anyone who reveals. Nice andh andy thing for a wolf to get into people's minds early.

Furthermore, like Roa pointed out, he says that gifted-talk is no way helpful, but continues it himself.

In response to others.

He seems very edgy/jumpy too.

That what Werewolf's about.

I'm also wary of the Lommy-fanclub that seems to be springing up, and think it's at least partly wolf-influenced.

[the guy who be short]

Lommy -> Glirdan
Sixth -> Glirdan (2)
Glirdan -> Sixth (Glirdan 2, Sixth 1)
Roa -> tgwbs (Glirdan 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 1)
Gil -> Lommy (Glirdan 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 1, Lommy 1)
tgwbs -> Lommy (Glirdan 2, Lommy 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 1)
Mac -> tgwbs (Glirdan 2, Lommy 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 2)
Mith -> xyzzy (Glirdan 2, Lommy 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 2, xyzzy 1)
Legate -> Lommy (Glirdan 2, Lommy 3, Sixth 1, tgwbs 2, xyzzy 1)
Rikae -> Glirdan (Glirdan 3, Lommy 3, Sixth 1, tgwbs 2, xyzzy 1)
Brinn -> Roa (Glirdan 3, Lommy 3, Sixth 1, tgwbs 2, xyzzy 1, Roa 1)
Nogrod -> Glirdan (Glirdan 4, Lommy 3, Sixth 1, tgwbs 2, xyzzy 1, Roa 1)

From this, to me, Sixth looks innocent for a secondary Glirdan vote.
Mac's vote for me looks like an attempt to create an alternate bandwagon to Glirdan (and Lommy), especially since he says numerous times that he doesn't want to lynch Glirdan (while still keeping suspicion on him).
Mith's vote for xyzzy... I disagree with the idea, but it's the kind of idea she has when she's innocent, done in good faith.
Rikae must be innocent.
Brinn's vote is incredibly random and odd, but I don't see it as reason to suspect her. I don't think a wolf would do such a thing in her position.
I don't think Nogrod is a wolf. If he were, and presuming Lommy to be a wolf too, I think the sensible course of action would be to vote for me so that there would be a 1/3 chance of an innocent dying, rather than 0.

Interim Conclusion:
Suspect Lommy and Roa.
Mildly suspect Mac.
Quite sure Nogrod, Rikae and Mith and Sixth are innocent.

Of the rest, I haven't formed any conclusions yet.


Just found this:

Originally Posted by Mac

He defends himself against Roa, who had voted for him. The line Nogrod quoted already indeed looks interesting. If he feels forced to be speculating about roles, then why does he? He didn't have to, at least not to that extent.

I feel forced to, as I said. I can't let misinformation reign. Roa says not to trust outed gifted, of course I have to confront that. Mith reinforces Roa's view that it is suspicious for gifted declare, so I have to counter it again.

[The Sixth Wizard]

if you think someone looks gifted, don't say it aloud, since the wolves might pick your gifted-suspect

Yeah, I'm aware, but sometimes I just kinda blurt stuff ou- FREE DAVID HICKS! Er, hehehe...

Seriously though, here comes my final opinion for the Day. I would have posted this before Lommy voted but had to go to swimming training for a couple of hours. A vote awaits!

Brinniel ~ May be a wolf, but not really suspicious at this point in time.

Gil-Galad ~ Accused me rather feebly with bad reasoning, then tried to back it up to Roa, calling her a suspect as well, and without any real evidence.

Legate of Amon Lanc ~ Originally suspects me openly, then retracts that when he sees no-one else agrees with him. Still suspicious, but I'll wait 'till later to vote 'im.

Macalaure ~ Complicated. Inclined to find out more.

Mithalwen ~ As mysterious as ever.

Nogrod ~ Voted for Glirdan, late in the Day. If I was a wolf, I sure wouldn't press home Glirdan and not gain much in the way of trust, so probably innocent.

Rikae ~ Also voted Glirdan, after Nogrod. Same as above.

Roa_Aoife ~ Sheesh, and you say Nogrod waffles ... teeny weeny bit suspicious...

the guy who be short ~ His vote yesterday is still very suspicious. He also didn't post much since then. Very close to voting him, don't know whether to join the Thinlomien bandwagon. . .

Thinlómien ~ It might be my death, killed by wolves, lynched after she gets lynched herself, but I still hold trust in our good ol' goat farmer. I still don't reckon she would have tried to get rid of Glirdan so soon in the game if she knew he was a wolf. And if she did, it sure hasn't paid off anyways.



...10 mins later, after reading TGWBS's post...

Yep, that's done it.

++ the guy who be short

By the way, that's probably my last message for the day.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Don't be so sure- it's happened before. Ask Lommy. She's in the Fenris Wolf club because of her fellow wolf Ang, who managed to survive till the very last day, mostly because everyone regarded him as innocent for voting her. If I'm not mistaken, he was the deciding fact, when a vote the other way would have lynched someone else entirely. I remember- it was my very first game, and I was one of those who believed Ang innocent. I've done the very same thing, and so have many others.

It was partly the Lommy sacrifice, and partly because I misinterpreted something the player later revealed to be the seer said as clearing him definitively - fortunately i realised they had been referring to the vote not a dream just in time to make the right decision...

Doing a lunchtime flit so unlikely to be much of substance til later.

Feel rather more positive today .... wolf gone... and it seems we have a good rangery type person ...

I would just say that my Xyzzy vote was intended as a damage limitation exercise not as a throwaway. Fortuanately you all ignored me I think I have been playing this game too long.. overcomplicating it...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I don't feel it right to just drop someone off of my list of suspects, but I guess it's the best I can do now if I am not to end in total confusion.

Six is not that case, however - I think him innocent based on his Glirdan voting.

Brinniel is what goes with the above. From many things she says, she could be a not-so-clever newbie wolf, since certain things she says wouldn't be much wise for a wolf to say. But I'd rather think her an innocent.

Tgwbs makes me slightly nervous. Though I thought him okay after his arguing with Roa at the end of page 1, some suspicions started to bubble inside me later then. On the other hand, last post (#143) of his has one significant thing about it: all the thoughts stated there correspond with my thoughts. Should I be worried, should you be worried (of my intelligence), or should I be happy?
Well, all thoughts, except for this:

Originally Posted by tgwbs

Rikae must be innocent.

Only simply saying that? These out-of-nowhere conclusions seem strange.

The same goes for Roa. I think she's okay, though she can be as much a wolf as innocent, I don't know her that good to tell this. On these two (her and tgwbs), I don't have any clear opinions formed.

Rikae At first I thought she might have been suspicious, later dropped it. The point is also that she voted for Glirdan at the moment Lommy was one vote ahead, and she herself admits she didn't have time to go through the posts of Day 1 before. A wolf who wouldn't know if there didn't appear a better suspect than Glirdan during the day would probably still try to vote for someone else, like catching the Lommy bandwaggon or voting on xyzzy and using the fact that she wasn't around as an excuse if the lynched proved innocent.

Gil-Galad looks like "normal" Gil-Galad, apart from his sudden burst of activity. Which might be just a momentary anomaly, like a sudden burst of activity in sun spots. Whatever the case, I am not able to learn anything "for" or "against" from his posts, so I am leaving him out now.

Mith. Seems innocent = this is the best word to use. She seems innocent, though she may be a very, very, very cleverly playing wolf. I'm gonna keep an eye on her, but I cannot lynch her just because she looks innocent

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Feel rather more positive today .... wolf gone... and it seems we have a good rangery type person ...

Excuse me, but I have the idea I'm missing something. I thought (judging from the admin thread) the wolves didn't agree on whom to vote, or didn't post it, or whatever, so from where the speaks of ranger? (Sorry if I am dumb.)

Of xyzzy I, obviously, cannot say anything.

This leaves my favourite suspects, Lommy, Nogrod, and newly emerged Mac. Unless something drastic happens, I'm going to focus on these three and pick one of them for my today vote.

Will be back and explain what and why.

[the guy who be short]

Post 3 - In role.

Post 8 - Accuses Roa on the back of Rikae's comments. Bear in mind that Day 1 is perfect for wolf-on-wolf suspicion.

Post 20 - Apologises to Roa. Now, this is interesting - he says he is suspicious of Lommy and Sixth for voting for him, but he says he is more worried about Sixth, and votes for him. If Lommy is a wolf, this could be Glirdan suspecting her for the future, but avoiding voting for a fellow wolf (Which at that point would mean 2 wolves on the voting list, 0 innocents).

And that's all he said.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

She says we shouldn't trust anyone who reveals. Nice andh andy thing for a wolf to get into people's minds early.

For the last time, that is not what I said. I said we should be wary of revealing gifteds because it's a lot easier for a wolf to do so in this game. I can almost garuntee a gifted who feels pressure won't wait till the last moment to reveal. It wouldn't do any good since we don't have retractables, and their chance of being saved would be almost nil. It's not like someone's going to come out in the last 10 minutes and say "No wait!" and we're all going to waste time trying to figure if they're lying. We'd have plenty of time. We don't even know if we have gifted, let alone if someone claiming to be gifted is lying. I know you seem confident that we have at least a ranger and seer, but I honestly don't know why. We could three shirrifs, or maybe all hunters, or maybe just a birthday dreamer. It looks more to me like you're setting up for a "reveal" and are upset that I'm ruining your plans.

Also, all this "Rikae must definately be innocent" worries me. Yes, she just happens to have the perfect vote placement, but she herself said that she hadn't read through the thread. Maybe she didn't know that a vote for Glirdan would tie him with Lommy. Or perhaps she made a mistake and miscounted the votes, like I did, and thought to do the safest thing (for herself) and vote to lynch Glirdan. (The point I used for Nogrod applies here as well.) I'm not saying she's definately guilty, but we really should know better than discount someone for a mere Day 1 vote. I've only seen her as a wolf once, but I know she's very good at avoiding suspcion.

Concerning my analysis of Nogrod- I love it when people discuss my analysis, even if they're against it. It forces people to say something concrete and form opinions. That said, Nogrod's reaction to my post gives me pause. He's calm, rational, even, and doesn't brush it off with a "Well, I guess we just misunderstand each other," or "We're both loud and that's probably why we suspect each other so often." ON the other hand, waffling, as Legate pointed out when discussing Lommy, is incredibly wolvish, especially to the extent Nogrod did it.

One more thing gives me pause though, and while Nogrod was right in suggesting we not use the information learned from last night's events, I can't help but think that a wolvish Nogrod would never let a kill get away.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Roa

For the last time, that is not what I said.

Originally Posted by Roa Day 1

We must be extremely wary of people who come out as gifteds at any point in the game, because without knowing what we have, it would be easy for a wolf to use that as a cover. So, even if a gifted proclamation goes uncontested, it's posible that the role isn't even in the game. Gifteds, if there are any, will need proof greater than a lack of contest if they plan on revealing.

How could you possibly interpret that as "we should be wary of revealing gifteds" rather than "we should not trust people who reveal themselves as gifted?" This is beyond me. You are contradicting yourself and digging your hole ever deeper...

[Gil-Galad]

I don't like this... Lommy defends Roa first day... now Roa defends Lommy second day... and Sixth is attacking me because i attacked him first... which is totally understandable...


hmmm... i'm not sure who my vote is going for today, TGWBS seems innocent to me, so i have no ill-feelings towards him.

bah... can't really decide... i haven't heard much from Mac and Mith lately, my two other slightly suspicous... but with Miths last post, i think i'm going to have give my vote to her, reason:

Feel rather more positive today .... wolf gone... and it seems we have a good rangery type person ...

Seems to me, your just stalling for your post and stating facts that can't really be brought into the spotlight

I would just say that my Xyzzy vote was intended as a damage limitation exercise not as a throwaway. Fortuanately you all ignored me I think I have been playing this game too long.. overcomplicating it...

Again, she said something that would bring very little suspicion onto her, and she tried to give a reason for her vote... but i still beleive that this might be a wolf trying to cover for Glirdan and now with Glirdan gone, she is trying to move on and hope that nobody remembered this, but i did...

I've always tried to catch the whole "sneaking-under-the-radar" move for Wolfs... so hopefully i caught me one Lupine...

++Mithalwen


Edit: X-'ed with Roa

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The main argument seems to be that I waffle and am not decisve. I myself am more than suspicious of people who are very decisive on Day1's. Being decisive this early normally means that one has some knowledge we others don't have.

Caution is understandable, but what you did was rediculus. In fact, what you did looked like a wolf/cobbler throwing suspicion in as many directions as possible, waiting for one to bite. And while you had a perfectly good suspect, with more than enough evidence, you dropped it. You, who says "Day 1's are useful- we can catch a wolf on Day 1," were terribly indecisive, and that just doesn't match.

It looks like it is just a bit too fabricated.

A convenient catch all statement. But I see you avoid saying how.

I'm a wolf because I didn't want to lynch tgwbs yesterDay? Now that would be quite stupid from a wolf-Noggie. Were he a wolf it would have been my best choice as it would look pretty good in my voting record and were he not I would have gotten rid of a formidable enemy quite easily leaving no suspicious tracks behind.

At the time, TGWBS would have been in a three way tie for the lead. He was a possibilty, no ta sure thing. Perhaps you didn't want to risk two fellows at once. And it's not like voting Glirdan didn't have the same effect, except that Glirdan was more finalized.

I brought Mac up because I thought he was acting suspiciously. That happened late in the game, not on the early stages. You can't suspect someone's actions before they act... Mac's early posting looked okay, his late posting didn't.

Your reasons for suspecting Mac are as bad as TGWBS's reasons for suspecting Lommy, if not worse. He's suspicious becuase he left after he voted? Since when is that a mark of a wolf? And you went from suspecting him to trying to start a bandwagon in three posts. You could have just as easily asked people to help you lynch TGWBS, but you didn't. Becuase you didn't want to get rid of someone who could be a good ally? You said the same about Mac.

While it may seem rude, Glirdan, who has difficulty with suspicion and being present, is a much better sacrifice than TGWBS.

Why I was suddenly ready to go for Glirdy? Simply because it was a choice between him and Lommy. Both were shots in the dark for me, but I believe Lommy can make a difference if innocent - and she had acted reasonably, unlike Glirdy who had acted suspiciously.

Saving an innocent and voting a wolf? How perfect for you. Of course you couldn't vote Lommy to save Glirdan- you had said that she looked innocent and that you wouldn't vote for her with out better evidence. It would be a huge contradiction. With Glirdan, on the other hand, you had at least opened the door a few posts back when it looked like no one else would go for your attempted bandwagons.

What I really don't understand is why you tried to bandwagon for two people who had almost no evidence against them, but not for the one person for whom you had expressed any real suspicion.

Edit: Crossed with Gil

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

How could you possibly interpret that as "we should be wary of revealing gifteds" rather than "we should not trust people who reveal themselves as gifted?"

Because I said:

We must be extremely wary of people who come out as gifteds

Oh, you're right, the "extremely" there makes it into a statement of not trusting gifted at all. I can totally see where you're coming from, and it doesn't look like you're twisting my words at all.

You've been trying to get me lynched since Day 1, even going so far as to put comments against me in your analysis of other players. Why not just get it over with and analyze me? It's what you want to do.

[Roa_Aoife]

I really must vote now- I have to go to work. Right now, my top suspects are:

Nogrod- for the reasons I stated above
TGWBS- Everything else aside, he's being very backhanded in his attacks on me, sneaking them into analyses on other players, etc, and he keeps twisting my words to make them seem different
Gil - because while I appreciate his greater activity, the things he's saying are sending up all sorts of red flags- his deliberate pointing out potential gifted, his baseless case against Sixth, (it's not compassion Gil; it's common sense), and lastly, his dropping his suspicion against Lommy and Sixth and going for Mith. Mith is is suspicious, no doubt, but the reasons he uses are fabricated at best

And I'm going shamelessly metagame (use outside knowledge) and vote

++Gil

Because he's the most likely to let a kill slip away.

I know you didn't want us to use that, Nogrod, and that's honorable and admirable, but I can't help having that thought in my head. It seems silly to ignore the common sense of the matter.
Otherwise, it honestly would have been a coin toss between TGWBS and Nogrod.

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, if someone with more time could analyze Rikae- people getting ignored for for a vote is just waaay to convenient.

[the guy who be short]

Do we have to go into semantics, Roa? Nowhere in that first post of yours does it even indicate that "we should be careful not to accidentally reveal our gifteds." It very clearly advocates mistrust of anybody who claims to be gifted. I do not need to analyse you, because your unreasonable obstinance on this matter is more than enough to make me confident of your wolvishness.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Gil - because while I appreciate his greater activity, the things he's saying are sending up all sorts of red flags- his deliberate pointing out potential gifted, his baseless case against Sixth, (it's not compassion Gil; it's common sense), and lastly, his dropping his suspicion against Lommy and Sixth and going for Mith. Mith is is suspicious, no doubt, but the reasons he uses are fabricated at best

wow... i didn't say i wasn't suspicous of lommy and sixth anymore, i just said that i was confused about the whole Lommy-Roa relationship that has made me thinking...

and now yo uare defending Sixth about being compassionate... sigh... now don't tell me that is not fabricated, i may drop my suspicions of Sixth if somebody shows me a complete post, but for now i'm still wary of Lommy and Roa, i don't like this tag-team againest me one bit...

i say to ye vilalgers, if you join this bandwagon, then i urge you to persecute Roa and Lommy because i don't like being cornered by everyone


in conclusion, i say that Roa's reasons are fruitless at best againest me...

[Macalaure]

I'll try a new approach, I'll list all the people who look innocent to me.. and then go for who is left.

Innocent:
Brinn. Appears very honest and helpful today. Ignoring her vote, I see no reason not to trust her right now.
Legate. Seems earnest. I don't agree with everything he says, but his points don't look made up, but honest. Curious to see why he suspects me, though. I hate being suspected by people who I trust in turn.
Mith. Did not say much today so far. I trusted her yesterday, and nothing has happened to change that.
Sixth. His vote yesterday looked innocent, and so does his general behaviour.

Very probably innocent:
Rikae. Another innocent-looking voter yesterday. I always find it difficult to read her, though.
Roa. I find nothing suspicious about her at the time. However, she's Roa, so she never looks entirely innocent.
tgwbs. He seems to attract quite some suspicion today. Interestingly, what he said today makes me feel a lot better about him. Like with Legate, I don't always agree with him, but what he says looks honest.

Unsure:
I still don't have a clear picture of Gil and Xyzzy.

Which leaves me only with: Nogrod and Lommy.

If you look at Nogrod from one angle, he looks very wolfish, from the other angle, he looks rather innocent. I simply don't know how to judge him.

Lommy is my (only ) real suspect right now. I will have a close look at her later.


Apart from that:

Originally Posted by Roa

Your reasons for suspecting Mac are as bad as TGWBS's reasons for suspecting Lommy, if not worse. He's suspicious becuase he left after he voted?

Well, I did not leave after I voted. I just don't like voting in the last minutes. I even have to admit that I did try to start a bandwaggon against tgwbs, which some suspected. It's because that's what I like to do with my votes: achieve to lynch somebody! I would've been more active on it if I had a better reasoning.

[the guy who be short]

I'm afraid I must leave now.

++Lommy for reasons already stated.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Whatever might have happened here today and yesterday at the end, I went through everything and I realized I have to stand behind my early option. Thinlómien. One other thing emerging here today about her would be the possibility of her and Six being connected. I know they are both early-voters, but we are not in Day 1 anymore. See: Day 1 - Lommy has to leave, votes Glirdan. Six has to leave, votes Glirdan. Day 2 - Lommy has to leave, votes tgwbs. Six shouts about Lommy fanclub, votes tgwbs. Eeek. Something smells here. Though I have said I'll leave thoughts on Six to later then, this is strange.

Mac I was getting a little bit suspicious of because there still seemed to be something slippery on him; particularly I was interested in his case against tgwbs, which I felt to be fabricated. I must say, the main point is because I felt tgwbs innocent and didn't feel it right to accuse him. It crushes with my logic, if they were both innocent, that this case appeared. However, after going through all Mac wrote, I now see him clearer than ever and am prepared to drop him from my suspect list. He seems innocent and logical.

Nogrod I have very strong opinion on: either he is a total wolf who should be lynched rightaway, or he is a very good and intelligent innocent and... yeah, lynching him would be the worst thing to do. I somehow can't put the evidence together this time, I am not as concentrated as I should, or something like that. I am not dropping him, but probably, unless something else happens, I am going to vote for Lommy today. I am saying this in forward, though I am not going to cast my vote now yet in case something happens (so far there was just a tgwbs and Mith bandwaggon forming, and who knows what might happen), but if anyone else thinks we should vote for Lommy, I say straightforward I am for it and I will cast that vote later. I just want to use the advantage of having time till later before the deadline, so I'll cast it later (if we had retractions, I'd have cast it at that point).

EDIT: X-ed with Gil and the last two.

Edit - Ad Mac:
Okay pal, in your last post, you swept off the last suspicions. I drop everything against you - if you are a wolf, then you must have miraculous abilities.

Edit - Ad tgwbs:
Seems the Lommy bandwaggon has started, so I am not alone (cf. above). Will still wait yet, though...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa

One more thing gives me pause though, and while Nogrod was right in suggesting we not use the information learned from last night's events, I can't help but think that a wolvish Nogrod would never let a kill get away.

Originally Posted by Roa

And I'm going shamelessly metagame (use outside knowledge) and vote
++Gil
Because he's the most likely to let a kill slip away.
I know you didn't want us to use that, Nogrod, and that's honorable and admirable, but I can't help having that thought in my head. It seems silly to ignore the common sense of the matter.

Okay. So be it. And now that you mentioned these again I guess the milk is spilled wide enough anyhow. And looking at the brighter side of this: if Menel has some nasty surprises for us in this game maybe it's just fair we can also use some unfair means of getting our wolves... (I remember Lommy once got my ancestor who was a wolf by mod-Glirdy slipping the sex of the wolf in the narration... so this would not be the first time)

So you're absolutely right with the first one. I was there before and after the deadline and would never let a kill slip. If I were a wolf and my mate wouldn't be around near the deadline I'd take action by myself, not bothering to wait for my lazy / unfortunate mate (I'd send a kill to the mod on my own and added that it's subject to change if my mate miraculously reappears from somewhere before the DL, or something like that).

And what you say about Gil is just what I have been thinking myself. That's why I picked him back to my "needs to analyse" list as I wished to be able to read him through and find something else to suspect him for than this "probably the one to be able to miss a kill" -argument...

In fact I'm going to try and do just that now. And take a look at few others as well as I think I need to do some rearranging in my mind about certain people - mainly dropping them from my suspicions if the rereading allows that.