Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

[tar-ancalime]

Well, it seems we now know how to get Wayne to post more frequently! Multiple posts already, and it's still early in the DAY.

[Firefoot]

Well, I'd like to come out with a nice neat list with everyone on it, and I've tried, but quite honestly... I'm feeling wholly un-analytical right now. Caput conficitur. (Basically - brain is fried.) So... thoughts as they come:

I'm feeling uneasy about Glirdan right now. LMP mentioned Glirdan's counter-productivity, and for the most part, I agree. He keeps going back to LMP, as well. Yesterday I was starting to think he might be innocent, and now I'm not sure again.

I'm still feeling comfortable with Kitanna and LMP; Celuien has stopped feeling entirely innocent to me.

Okay, you know what? This is not working - there just isn't a whole lot of new material to work with, mostly just a Wilwa-Wayne debate. Maybe I'll get up early and try to do this. I probably wouldn't be trying to do this at all if I didn't think I was likely to die tonight. How do I always manage to get cleared?

Oh, and the only way Wayne does not die today is if every single other person votes for Wilwa. I can already tell you that I will not - too risky in case she is the seer.

Apologies for a probably just about wholly incoherent post.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Celuien

LMP is the only one so far to have asked NOT to be dreamt about. So far, it doesn't change my opinion of him, but it could be taken as an indication of guilt. I don't know what to think. I'll trust in Wilwa's judgment.

On the contrary. I would be a very stupid werewolf to put such an onus upon myself. It's not the way I would act if I were a werewolf. Of course, you may not believe that. Still, all I can do is tell you that I said it for the obvious reason, which is that if our seer is Wilwa and has only one free night to dream, please, don't waste it on an innocent!

[littlemanpoet]

One more "damning" piece of evidence on Wayne: notice that his signature has changed since Wilwa pointed him out as a werewolf. It was an unwise move on his part, but by identifying himself toDay as one who is yet again about to lose a game of werewolf, he condemns himself.

[tar-ancalime]

One more "damning" piece of evidence on Wayne: notice that his signature has changed since Wilwa pointed him out as a werewolf. It was an unwise move on his part, but by identifying himself toDay as one who is yet again about to lose a game of werewolf, he condemns himself.

Really? This is what I found just now when I checked one of his posts:

I never win the werewolf game do I.

Isn't that what he had before? Or am I losing my mind?

[littlemanpoet]

I have a risky idea, which may end up helping to clear or indite (sp?) those who have not yet voted. My suggestion is that all those who have not yet voted, vote for Glirdan. His face-saving early vote for Wayne, along with everything else he's been saying today (even separating out his attacks against me) just make him really suspicous. If all five of us vote for Glirdan, we have a double lynching (yes, that's me recommending it ), and the chance at getting rid of two werewolves in one Day ... if I'm right about him. Before I cast my vote, I'd like to see opinions from all.

That means that Anguirel, Eonwe, Firefoot, Lalaith, and I have a chance to put our votes on the line in a meaningful way. If Glirdan turns out to be a werewolf, all five of us have gained more credibility. Of course, if one of us is a werewolf, we're playing a very, very risky dare by playing along with this, and therefore it would not really be name-clearing; however, if we get two werewolves at once, we're in a very good position.

The risk factor, however, is that Glirdan is not a werewolf, and is gifted instead. If that is the case, I'll eat a corpse. I'm not completely sure this is the best strategy, so I'm hoping for feedback.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

Isn't that what he had before? Or am I losing my mind?

I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

[Eonwe]

wow i sincerly hope taht glirdan is not gifted. (this stands for puking)

the plan has merit, assuming i can dig up wha tyou have on glirdan. and it would vituly seal our village's fate, if glirdan came out innocent. so it is defineitly a gamble that could be worth taking. defineitely needs consideration...tomarrow.

[Firefoot]

All right, I can see the merit in that. The only issue would be if Glirdan were the Ranger; that could be fatal for the villagers (well, maybe not quite, but you get the gist). If he's the Seer... I don't think he is. If Wilwa is not, I think I might know who is, and it's not Glirdan. If he's the hunter, more power to him... he should probably take out Eonwe or tar.

As a just in case, though, one (or two) of the people on that list should be around at the end of voting in case Glirdan does show up saying he's gifted. If nothing else, it will corner the wolves into their kill for the next Night or two (depending on Wilwa's giftedness). It shouldn't be me; I can't guarantee my presence at the end of voting.

[Lalaith]

Hmm...I'm not sure.
If Wilwa is lying and Wayne is innocent, and then Glirdan is innocent too, we really are shafted. I'm inclined just to lynch Wayne.
Wilwa, you're welcome to dream of me tonight if you like, it would be a bit boring (for me) as I'd much rather know the identity of LMP or Anguirel, but if I'm seen as the most interesting one then I suppose I should be flattered....

One thing I would say however is that when and if Wilwa reveals to us who she has dreamt of, she should NOT say who, if any, of her dream subjects are gifted, just that they are innocent.

I think I'm going mad with paranoia...I suddenly thought, what if Wilwa, LMP and Firefoot were wolves? Firefoot attacks wilwa's revelation, then is calmed by wilwa's assurance that she (Firefoot) is an ordinary villager. Then LMP comes out with his plan for a second lynching (of an innocent). Firefoot agrees...

Now, I'm not saying this is what I really think. But it could be true, and so could a lot of other crazy things. So I think we should play it safe and just lynch Wayne today.

[Lalaith]

I hope Ang's computer isn't still down. I'd really like to hear from him quite soon.

[tar-ancalime]

I think I'm going mad with paranoia...I suddenly thought, what if Wilwa, LMP and Firefoot were wolves? Firefoot attacks wilwa's revelation, then is calmed by wilwa's assurance that she (Firefoot) is an ordinary villager. Then LMP comes out with his plan for a second lynching (of an innocent). Firefoot agrees...

Now, I'm not saying this is what I really think. But it could be true, and so could a lot of other crazy things. So I think we should play it safe and just lynch Wayne today.

That's why we have to take Wilwa at her word. Worst-case scenario? We lynch one innocent (in which case, sorry Wayne). The truth is then out. But if we start to get embroiled in more convoluted schemes, we could end up with a real bloodbath on our hands!

As an illustration of what COULD happen: suppose you're right. Wilwa, Firefoot, and lmp are the wolves but they talk us into their plan for one day. We double lynch Wayne and Glirdan. Glirdan really is the Hunter (as Firefoot hypothesized). Despite being one of the victims of the plot, Glirdan too is taken in by Firefoot and chooses me or Eonwe to take down with him. That's three innocents taken down in one DAY, one more kill that NIGHT, and three very happy wolves come morning. I say play it safe, lynch Wayne, and minimize our losses JUST IN CASE.

[tar-ancalime]

I hope Ang's computer isn't still down. I'd really like to hear from him quite soon.

Thanks for posting this. I'd been wondering where he was.

[Lalaith]

It's what he said in his Sil Survivor thread. We can only presume to believe him.

As for your other points, tar-a, I'm glad I'm not the only wuss here. It's nto that I'm not suspicious of Glirdan - I am, he still seems to flip and flop too much - but it just the whole double-lynching plan seems too risky.

Actually, having reviewed yesterday's voting, it's quite unlikely that lmp and wilwa are both wolves, given that lmp gave her a third vote at a time when there was no Menel bandwagon to speak of. But anything is possible I suppose.

[Anguirel]

Yes, I'm afraid the goose-girl is right. I've gone quite insane and have occasional bouts of lucidity only. Occupational hazard of being a fool. I'll be stark raving mad for a lot of the time over the next fortnight...

(Lalaith is right, I just prefer to avoid anachronism...and blimming annoying it is too. Accursed technology.)

I'll be back later, but for the moment, I say we go along with wilwa's plan, and that the Ranger should guard her tonight. There's more at risk defying Wilwa than there is supporting her. In the meantime, we should try and identify other possible members of the triumvirate, and choose a target for her to dream about-I suggest Eonwe myself. May Orome guide us!

[Lalaith]

What I really wanted to know, Ang, was what you thought, in your lucid moments, of the double lynching plan.

There are five of us now who haven't voted, and three of them (LMP, Eonwe and Firefoot) seem to like the double lynching plan. I really don't, as I've explained, I think it's too high-risk and even possibly a wolvish strategy. Tar-a has illustrated one possible scenario, here's another: even if wilwa is really the seer, and wayne a wolf, what if Glirdan is the Ranger? Then we would lose wilwa, and an extra dream, tonight....

However if all four of the other remaining villagers were willing to risk it then I might be persuaded. So before I rush in to vote for Wayne, which is what I'm inclined to do, I'd like all four of you to say unreservedly you would prefer a double lynching - after all, you can't all four be wolves....

I still would like the seer, wilwa or A.N. Other, to dream of LMP or Anguirel, if they haven't already done so. But of course, it's up to you, seer dear. And could wilwa please come back and say what her dreams were about?

[wilwarin538]

My other dream was of Anguirel, he is innocent.

I've been thinking very hard about my next dream. I'm debating between Eonwe and Kitanna now. I'll be back right before voting is closed to explain why.

I have to go now though. Sorry for not giving any reasons.

Oh and LMP, Wayne's sig has been like that for quiet a while, way before this game started.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

On the contrary. I would be a very stupid werewolf to put such an onus upon myself. It's not the way I would act if I were a werewolf. Of course, you may not believe that. Still, all I can do is tell you that I said it for the obvious reason, which is that if our seer is Wilwa and has only one free night to dream, please, don't waste it on an innocent!

I know. I believe what you said. But since there's still suspicion swirling about, I was worried that the request to dream about someone else instead of spending the dream on you would help stir up the controversy, so I was swaying back to my original idea that Wilwa should put an end to the lmp is a wolf theory tonight. It seems like every day's discussion is dominated by that argument, which makes it harder to figure out who the wolves are.

And please, Wilwa, tell us who the other known innocents are even if they don't come back to give permission. The Ranger needs to know who to guard over the next few days.

Off to the shop!

EDIT: Cross-posted with Wilwa.

[Firefoot]

I don't really care whether we do a double lynching or not. But I do have to vote soon, so if a clear decision has not been reached I will vote for Glirdan so that we're not penned in one way or the other (as someone could still vote for Wayne).

Wilwa - obviously, I haven't seen your reasoning yet, but if those are the two you're debating between I would go for Eonwe unless you really do have a good reason for dreaming of Kitanna. Kitanna seems very innocent to me right now.

So if we take Wilwa's claim as true (I am starting to trust her more), then the three wolves must come from this list:

Celuien - She isn't wholly innocent in my eyes, but she is less suspicious than about four or five other people.
Eonwe - I'm pretty suspicious of him. A seer dream here might not be a bad idea.
Glirdan - Hm... I'm really not sure. He could be guilty, but now that I'm actually awake and thinking, I'm not seeing him as so guilty any more. My opinion of him flip-flops about as fast as he does. If we decide not to lynch him, a seer dream here would probably be effective.
Kitanna - I think she's probably innocent. Her analyses have all seemed straight-forward and honest to me.
Lalaith - Right now I think she may be innocent. However, a closer look at her posts might not be a bad idea.
LMP - I honestly do not feel very suspicious of him. Not to say that he isn't a superb bluffer, but at this point I think he is innocent.
Tar - 50-50. Sometimes her posts seem innocent; othertimes, guilty. She could bear a closer look.
Wayne - will be lynched; presumably is a wolf.

One of the things I would like to do is look more at possible trios - this will be easier once we know Wayne's (and Glirdan's?) roles.

I really wish I could have done something more in depth, but hopefully if this is the last chance I ever get to post, you all will know where I was going.

[Firefoot]

As I said I would:

++Glirdan

My final opinion is probably leaning against a double lynching, purely because of the risk factor; but if the four rest of you all decide that the double lynching is the best way to go, I would go along with that. Good luck.

[Eonwe]

ok here's how i take it. there is almost assuradly one wolf in teh votes for wayne. wayne is a wofl. that leaves one left to cast a vote. he is in a bad place, becasue wayne is already as good as dead now. that means of Anguirel, Eonwe, Firefoot, Lalaith, and LMP i think there is a fine chance there is a wolf. ang and firefoot are cleared. that leaves me lmp, and lalaith. i know im innocent. that leaves lmp and lalaith.

i would suggest dreaming of lmp, lalaith, or me. but i think lalaith has teh most potential.

ill try to go back and collect teh votes up to this point adn analyze them...

[Eonwe]

and here is voting up to now:

voter - vote

wilwa - wayne
wayne - wilwa
glirdan - wayne
kittana - wayne
tar - wayne
celuien - wayne
firefoot - glirdan

analysis may follow shortly...

[Anguirel]

I agree with Lalaith that a double-lynching at this point would be too perilous.

Can anything be divined from the Day One votes, when Wayne was a leading candidate? I think, for instance, we can clear Celuien definitively...

I'll return with more when I can.

[Kitanna]

Looking back on the posts made after I went to bed I see some very interesting things floating around.

I'm not sure what to think of lmp's idea of the double-lynch of Glirdan and Wayne. I can see how it could help us if Wayne is a wolf and then so is Glirdan, but if we're wrong...I mean I feel Wayne is most likely a wolf, but if we're wrong about Glirdan, then what? If he's the ranger then we're out when it comes to protecting Wilwa and confusion is going to reign tomorrow. If he's the hunter he may just take down an innocent. But if he proves to be a wolf then we take down two and our chances greatly increase in finding wolf number three.

It is a very risky strategy to enact. If we do get a double lynching and Wayne turns out guilty and Glirdan innocent I suggest a dream about lmp. If we get a double lynch and both are wolves I suggest Lalaith. If neither are wolves I suggest the real seer dream of lmp or Firefoot (it'll be pretty clear at this point Wilwa is a wolf.).

But I really can't say I agree with this double-lynching. If we're wrong we have a lot to lose.

[Eonwe]

ok think on this:

these are the situations that arise when you have my knowledge (ei. that im innocnet).

lmp and lalaith are wolves.
either lmp or lalaith is a wolf, and their partner voted for wayne already.
neither are wolves but there are two wolves in the votes for wayne.

lmp, me, lalaith, firefoot adn ang have not voted for wayne yet.

ang and firefoot have been cleared. if we could clear lmp and lalaith, we would have two wolves left int eh voting for wayne. (well, i guess i would be the only one who could say that)

lmp: i'm not to sure of myself. he plays an awfully bold game for a wolf. that makes me lean toward thinking he is innocnet. though of all the unknowns, i would pick lmp to play a game like that. which makes me unsure. but when you throw the seer hints in, i think that would be too far for a wolf.


lalaith: i havn't really looked into her much. she gives a good acounting of lmp's plan and wilwa=seer situation. that lends some credability to her.

me: i know im innocnet, but nobody else does.

i suggest wilwa chooses the most suspicious of us three to dream of, and everyone else do their best to dig up whatever damnation the can on us. we will hopefully be able to agree that we are all innocent.

and that would lead us to two wolves hidden in Glirdan, Kittana, Tar, and Celuien. which would be very helpful.

maybe it would be time for teh hunter to come forth. that would narrow the dragnet still further.

so, tell me what you think of lmp, lalaith, and me.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I think I'm going mad with paranoia...I suddenly thought, what if Wilwa, LMP and Firefoot were wolves? Firefoot attacks wilwa's revelation, then is calmed by wilwa's assurance that she (Firefoot) is an ordinary villager. Then LMP comes out with his plan for a second lynching (of an innocent). Firefoot agrees...

Hee hee! I had the same paranoid thought going, minus the part you outline for me. Which is why I stick to my Occam's Razor guideline: go with the simplest explanation that accounts for all the variables. My hypothesis is that.

I'm not convinced that a double-lynching of Wayne and Glirdan is the best idea. It might be wise to promise ourselves that Glirdan is the wolf to be lynched toMorrow unless something makes it clear that he's not a werewolf. We have the time and the numbers to take a chance at one more Day.

Firefoot, I appreciate your provisional confidence in my plan, but I'm quite willing to leave Glirdan alive one more Night, as two werewolves (at this somewhat early stage in the game) is not really any worse than one, since they can't split their kills.

[Lalaith]

Eonwe: Firefoot and Ang are only cleared if Wilwa really is the seer.
Ang: first day votes for Wayne are only relevant if Wayne is a wolf.

The answers to the second question will be revealed of course at the end of this Day and to the first either tomorrow DAY or the DAY after.

Of course, after Wayne's lynching, there will be no opportunity to discuss strategy so it's best to get that clear now.
Here's what I think.
If Wayne is a wolf, Ranger obviously protects Wilwa. Hunter does what s/he thinks best. Wilwa, if seer, dreams of who she thinks best. If someone else is Seer, don't bother dreaming about wilwa, she's obviously a wolf. In this scenario, Kitanna's Firefoot/Lmp suggestion isn't a bad one.

If Wayne turns out to be innocent, Ranger and Hunter must obviously think very hard about what to do, the wolves will be hunting madly for the real seer in the Night.

[Lalaith]

Ok, just seen LMP's post. The consensus seems to be against a double lynching, for which I am grateful.
++WAYNE

[littlemanpoet]

Way too many corpses and grave digging toDay, so I must vote. And I'll settle the double lynching thing here and now because having suggested it, I don't think it's the wisest course of action.

++ WaynetheGoblin

If you really want another known innocent, go ahead and dream of me.

We know that Firefoot and Anguirel are innocent, based on Wilwa being a seer (if she is). That's three known innocents, which gets proven tonight. Either Firefoot or Anguirel die tonight, it's pretty obvious (not saying this as a threat but sheer deductive reasoning - just to make that clear).

So the Ranger needs to guard Wilwa. I suggest that the Hunter pick either Glirdan or Eonwe, and that Wilwa dream of one of these two. I'm pretty convinced of tar-ancalime's innocence. If this is all proven wrong, it's back to the drawing board and we are in really, really big trouble.

[Eonwe]

i must be leaving for school, and most likely won't have a chance to get back on before 4pm (my time). so i must vote now. becuas thtere is no point in voting for glirdan anymore, i will go for wayne as well.

++wayne

[Anguirel]

Well, unless we've all been bamboozled up the lum and back, this looks like a pretty bad evening for the wolves. And I say wilwa should dream of Eonwe, on whom we have far less information.

++WAYNE THE GOBLIN (again, gratifying to know I was apparently right first time)

[wilwarin538]

Alright, it seems many people want me to dream of Eonwe. That's probably what I'll do.

But I will tell you why I considered these two.

Kitanna pretty much beleived me right off the bat, not many others did. Why did she have such convidence in me, when I had so much suspicion? If she is guilty she was probably trying to get on my good side so I wouldn't dream of her toNight. If she is innocent, then she was just trusting me, for what ever reason.

Eonwe said something about him seeing a post from Wayne where Wayne named Kitanna as the other wolf. No such post excists. Was he perhaps trying to set Kitanna up, so he would seem innocent?

Obvioulsy this reasoning can't work for both of them being guilty, since it would have to require Were-Eonwe to expose Were-Kitanna. Which isn't likely.

But I'm pretty sure atleast one of them is guilty. I will dream of Eonwe toNight. If he is guilty we know who to lynch tomorrow, but that won't necassarily clear Kitanna, if he is innocent I suggest we go for Kitanna.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Well, unless we've all been bamboozled up the lum and back, this looks like a pretty bad evening for the wolves. And I say wilwa should dream of Eonwe, on whom we have far less information.

As you know I've been pushing for our seer dreaming of Glirdan, but I think Anguirel has a point here. Glirdan's behavior has been a lot more obviously werewolvish than Eonwe's.

Just to review, Glirdan has, all day toDay, been trying to get us off track of what we all seem to have been pretty sure about, saying there's a werewolf hiding in such and such votes ... and saying that we should spread our votes around when, as tar ancalime makes very plain in her astute posting, we need to make sure of enough votes for Wayne. Finally, his flip-flopping has been mentioned. All werewolvish. So he seems rather obvious. Eonwe seems suspicious to a number of us, but his behavior has been far less obvious. In fact, until I go back and have a really good look, I'd have to say that the primary problem I can recollect with Eonwe was his vote placement on Day one, which I can't ever remember what it was now, just that my analysis produced that result. sorry that I can't be clearer in my hurry.

The upshot is that since a number of us feel rather sure of Glirdan, our seer ought to dream of Eonwe. I hope all that makes sense.

I'll shut up now.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Wilwa. I need your case to be stronger against Kitanna. Glirdan seems much more likely to me, three days running.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

A day full of discussion had ended. The Village Daydreamer had claimed to be able to see interesting dreams at night, too, and the votes had been cast, but the townspeople weren't quite sure whether they had caught a lycan or not.

"A wolf! A wolf! We've got a wolf!" half of the villagers racketed pointing at Wayne.

"How do we know that he is a wolf? Just because she told us?" the other half romped pointing at Wilwarin.

"Quiet, quiet. Quiet! There are ways of telling whether he is a werewolf", Eonwe, who was a learned man, said.
"Are there? What are they?" Celuien inquired.

"Tell me, what do you do with werewolves?" Eonwe asked.
"Hang!" Anguirel bawled.

But remembering their first hanging attempt that was a more or less eccentric performance, they came up with another option.

"Burn!" "Burn them up!"
"And what do you burn, apart from wolves?" Eonwe led the villagers.
"More wolves." Glirdan blurted.
"Wood", Kitanna said enthusiastically.
"Good. Now, why do wolves burn?"
"B... because they're made of... wood?" tar-ancalime said hesitantly and scratched her head.
"Good", Eonwe commended. "So how do you tell whether he is made of wood?"
"Build a bridge out of him", Celuien suggested.
"But can you not also build bridges out of stone?" littlemanpoet reminded.
"Oh yeah", she admitted.
"Does wood sink in water?" Eonwe helped.
"No, no, it floats!... It floats! Throw him into the pond!" Firefoot shouted.
"No, no. What else floats in water?" sighed Eonwe.
"Bread!"
"Apples."
"Very small rocks."
"Cider."
"Gravy."
"Cherries."
"Mud."
"Churches."
"Lead! Lead!"

"A Goose", notified Lalaith.

"Exactly", Eonwe smiled. "So, logically..."
"If he weighed the same as a goose... he's made of wood", Anguirel concluded
"And therefore...", Eonwe looked the crowd inquiringly.
"...A werewolf!" they squealed.

By mere chance, there happened to be a large enough scale in the Village, and Lalaith was told to fetch one of her geese for weighing. Littlemanpoet and Glirdan lifted Wayne on the one scale pan and the goose on the other. Although it was quite obvious that Wayne did not weigh the same as the goose, the villagers decided to burn him anyway.

Wayne was quickly tied up to a pole and placed in the middle of the village square. Cords of branches and dry leaves were brought at his feet. "You fools! You'll curse the day you killed me", he growled. "Yeah, right", the villagers muttered and lit the pyre. The kindling caught on fire instantly, and red flames reached towards the dusky sky. Thick smoke made Wayne cough and suddenly his body started twitching spasmodically. A blood-curdling howl burst out of his mouth that had became a furry snout, and sharp claws grew out of his huge paws, but the ropes holding back the beast didn't break. A horrendous black wolf glared at the villagers behind a wall of fire as they watched the goldsmith slowly burning to death.



Living:
Anguirel - jester
Celuien - luthier
Eonwe - militiaman
Firefoot - traveller who has a dog
Glirdan - undead with Michael Jackson's nose
Kitanna - goat herder
Lalaith - goosegirl
littlemanpoet - village undertaker
tar-ancalime - charlatan
Wilwarin538 - official town daydreamer

Dead:
dancing spawn of ungoliant(mod) - mangled, tangled and strangled in fishing nets on Night 1
Bergil(ord) - hanged to death with profitable consequences on Day 1
Kuruharan(ord) - half devoured and prepared to be turned into haggis on Night 2
Meneltarmacil(ord) - sat on, roasted, minced and boiled by three passing by trolls on Day 2
Kath(ord) - chopped up and organized alphabetically on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin(wolf) - burned to death on Day 3

Score:
Villagers: 10
Wolves: 2

It is now Night 4. Wolves and Gifteds, you know what to do. Villagers, go to sleep. The Night ends in 24 hours at 9:00 pm. GMT. Good Night!

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

"Happy hunting, you double-faced carnivore"

The villagers had caught their first werewolf last evening, but there were still two lycanthropes around, and it was clear that they were furiously eager to avenge their fallen comrade. When a new day dawned, there were only nine people left in Shamville. To the surprise of the villagers (and to the relief of the persons concerned), both Firefoot and Anguirel were quite alive, though. "But where is Celuien!" Wilwarin cried out. It was true, there was one luthier less on the village square than yesterday.

Presto prestissimo the villagers rushed to Celuien's workshop where she used to build and repair different instruments. The band stepped inside, and in a heap of sawdust they found Celuien. A deep wound on her temple and splinters on the floor revealed that she had been hit on the head with her own mandolin. The stroke had been fatal both to the instrument and Celuien. As though for a final finishing, a violin's bow had been thrust molto violente through her stomach.

"Alas! Poor Celuien, she was so sound a girl", littlemanpoet lamented.

"Yes, always longing for harmony", Kitanna sobbed.

"And she was our Ranger!" tar-ancalime breathed pointing to the back of the room.

On the wall beside all the lutes and viguelas, there hung a quiver full of arrows and a longbow. "Maybe she was just an avid, umm... duck-hunter", Lalaith tried to suggest. But, of course, a name badge with "ranger" written on it and a sleek spandex outfit with an embroidered "R" on the chest, which Glirdan and Eonwe soon found, kind of ruined the theory. The villagers looked at each other devastated. There was no one who would protect them now.



Living:
Anguirel - jester
Eonwe - militiaman
Firefoot - traveller who has a dog
Glirdan - undead with Michael Jackson's nose
Kitanna - goat herder
Lalaith - goosegirl
littlemanpoet - village undertaker
tar-ancalime - charlatan
Wilwarin538 - official town daydreamer

Dead:
dancing spawn of ungoliant(mod) - mangled, tangled and strangled in fishing nets on Night 1
Bergil(ord) - hanged to death with profitable consequences on Day 1
Kuruharan(ord) - half devoured and prepared to be turned into haggis on Night 2
Meneltarmacil(ord) - sat on, roasted, minced and boiled by three passing by trolls on Day 2
Kath(ord) - chopped up and organized alphabetically on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin(wolf) - burned to death on Day 3
Celuien(ranger) - mauled with musical instruments on Night 4

Score:
Villagers: 9
Wolves: 2

It is now Day 4. Wolves, please stop PMing. Villagers, you may start discussing. The Day ends in 24 hours at 9:00 pm. GMT. Have a nice Day!

[littlemanpoet]

Celuien? What the devil? What are these werewolves up to? Okay, they couldn't go after the seer, which we have strong evidence is Wilwa, but stronger is needed in a confession from Wilwa as to whom she drempt of last night, and whether that person is werewolf or innocent. And I figured the werewolves would be going after Firefoot or Anguirel.

The only three reasons I can think of for their choice were:

1) hey, see what LMP thinks, let's prove him wrong so that he looks like a werewolf. But that's almost stupid.

2) Wilwa is not the seer, but a werewolf, and the werewolves have known that Wayne was unlikely to last anyway, so they went for a really bold bluff and have been lucky to pick out believable people as innocent, one of whom may in fact be werewolves, and were going after Celuien because they thought she was the real seer. That definitely does not follow Occam's Razor at all, and seems quite far-fetched to me, because is also means that either Firefoot or Anguirel is the third werewolf, and that just doesn't look at all right. This little hypothesis cannot be ruled completely out of question, but it seems to be way back on a distant back burner.

3) they're thinking in ways that just don't work for me.

Of the three possibilities, number 3 seems the most likely to me, although number 1 has possibilities.

So, Wilwa, who did you dream of last night, and is that individual a werewolf or innocent?

[wilwarin538]

Celuin? Wow, that's definetely a surprise.

I dreamt of Eonwe last Night just as I said I would. He is innocent.

So that leaves us with:

Glirdan
Kitanna
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
tar-ancalime

Two are wolves, two are innocent, and one is the Hunter.

I'm still thinking Kitanna is a wolf. I know my reasoning isn't to strong but I just have this gut feeling she's one of the wolves.

I won't vote now of course, but if I had to it would be for her.

[littlemanpoet]

Okay. Thanks, Wilwa. Please accept my apologies for doubting you, Eonwe.

If Wilwa is lying, which I doubt, then she is a werewof, and one of Firefoot, Anguirel, & Eonwe is a werewolf, the other two innocent and being duped like the rest of us. Just noting that as an "aside" hypothesis.

If Wilwa is the seer, then I must take a good hard look at ...

Glirdan
Kitanna
Lalaith
tar-ancalime

... because I know I'm innocent, and anybody who thinks I'm a wolf has greater respect for what I might do as a werewolf than I do.

Let me just bring one thing to everyone's attention, going back to Day One:

On Day One, werewolves are looking for any chance of any innocent saying something that gives them the chance to cast doubt on that individual. Up until my "elect a leader" post, nobody had done that, and I can imagine that the werewolves must have been pretty frustrated up until then. Immediately after my "eal" post, Glirdan hits me with a ferocious attack. Eonwe provides a reasoned analysis, and my response to these two is (1) reasonable with Eonwe, (2) suspicious of Glirdan. Following this, Glirdan backpedals so fast, he disappears into distance. This, my friends, is the most werewolvish behavior I've seen from anyone at all outside of Wayne. I'll take a closer look now at the rest of those still under suspicion.

[Glirdan]

Wow!!! This is definetly a shock!!! Celuien, the Ranger. This is not a good thing for the village. But why would the Wolves decide to attack Celuien? Was it purely random? Because there is nothing in the posts that I see that point to the fact that she was the Ranger. Was she hitting close to home on some of her theories and the Wolves felt that they better get rid of her?

Glirdan backpedals so fast, he disappears into distance.

Care to explain yourself here Lmp? I'm quite confuse at what you mean. And yes I did hit you with a ferocious attack, but what else are you supposed to do when something as suspicious as that pops up? Tell me, what would you have done in my place Lmp?

You are not cleared from suspicion in my mind, not yet. And even though Firefoot, Anguriel and Eonwe have been cleared by Wilwa, we cannot forget the fact that there is still a Cursed amongst us. They are cleared, unless the Wolves are able to get the other lycan with them in which case they will have to be watched once more.

The other one I'm really suspicious of is Lalaith and I thought that a dream here would have been more beneficial. There was really no evidence that Eonwe was a Wolf. A dream for Lalaith, Lmp and myself probably would have beeen more beneficial for us, but now there is no more chance for us to know who's what because it's highly likely that the Wolves are going to go after Wilwa tonight and I'd be very surprised if she wasn't attacked.

Kitanna doesn't seem to suspicious in my eyes and niether does tar, yet I'm still going to watch them

[Firefoot]

Celuien? What the devil? What are these werewolves up to? Okay, they couldn't go after the seer, which we have strong evidence is Wilwa, but stronger is needed in a confession from Wilwa as to whom she drempt of last night, and whether that person is werewolf or innocent. And I figured the werewolves would be going after Firefoot or Anguirel.

Yeah... what LMP said. The best thing I can think of is that maybe the wolves are going to try and play suspicion off of Wilwa, Ang, and myself.

There is a fourth option that LMP did not mention, and that is that Wilwa is a wolf and that none of Ang, Eonwe, and myself are wolves, but that is seeming pretty far-fetched right now. Right now, I'm pretty comfortable saying that Wilwa really is the Seer.

So of those remaining, I would say that LMP seems the most innocent to me. I'm not too concerned about Kitanna, either (I could probably be persuaded otherwise, though), which would leave at least one, possibly both, wolves between Glirdan, Lalaith, and tar. For one thing, I highly doubt that all three wolves voted for Wilwa on Day 2, which would mean that either Glirdan and/or tar is a wolf. Glirdan is currently more suspicious to me than tar is. Lalaith is definitely confusing me; I had been pretty sure she was innocent. But I would like to see if we couldn't get some pretty good analyses on these five people today. Could be telling.