WW XXIIX - Queer Lodgings

[Kath]

This is what Nogrod said:

Post 13:

I would agree with Runi. No dwarf could ever do this. Not ever.

Post 16:

And just because of that, maybe a little too convenient? That would be a maddening joke indeed, but as all of this looks like a mad-joke anyway, I wouldn't put it past this Necromancer to make it just like that

. (In answer to Farael repeating the point about three non-Dwarves being wolves.)

And this is not a flip-flop how? Yes, the first post was probably merely a joke, but he did continue with it and he did alter his view somewhat. In addition, Nogrod later in-directly agrees with Lommy that the points she made weren't good (post 67), which is technically a defense of himself just done in a way that doesn't make him look defensive.

Quite clever really, and wolvish looking too.

So what I'd like to know now Voloin, is why the defense from you?

Ah what else was I going to do? Right, why spawn? So let's see what she posted yesterDay.

Post 8: Mentions Meneltarbo being suspicious because of his muddy feet, but everyone else is mentioned along with just not by name. Kitanna then picks up on this and mentions suspicion of Menel as well which is a little odd but could be in character.

Post 24: Perhaps mentioning Menel was a ploy to get people talking, she seems to intimate that it was one here. Suggests that there is a wolvish link between Dori88 and Lommy because they were arguing. Possible but tenuous on Day 1. Some suspicion of Durelin as well for not being as involved as she could. Boro then defends what he said about Lommy, which could be seen as a reaction to this suspicion, especially since he also says he feels spawn is innocent which could a way of covering his back if he intended to kill her later. Not sure if that's entirely likely though as I think Boro would be a smarter wolf than that.

Post 48: Agrees with Boro that Gloanna looks suspicious for talking a lot without actually contributing anything and for making a safe vote.

Post 50: Looks at Durelin, and mentions that she's been rather over-defensive in very few posts as well as practically describing herself in a suggestion of how a wolf would act. Notes some flip-flopping as she was originally quite suspicious of Nogrod but then said she had to choose between Runi and Kath for her vote.

Post 54: Mentions that Gloanna and Durelin are unlikely to return and reply to the suspicions she brought up. Says she thinks Farael's plan of 'lynch those that don't contribute' is a good one but points out some not so subtle hints he made about being innocent. Mentions some suspicion of Ang too because he was sleeping in the middle of the Day.

Post 70: Wonders whether Gloanna can really be a wolf because her actions are so obvious. Says her unease over Ang, Eomer and Kath is due to them 'dumbing down' and thinks it may be a wolvish ploy to get people talking without having to say anything that might cause them to slip up.

Post 84: Wonders whether there is a connection between Holby and Gloanna because Holby pretty much passes off suspicion of Gloanna using statistics, which isn't really a surefire way of doing it.

Post 89: Says her vote will go to Eomer, Gloanna or Kath presumably for the 'dumbing down' and the points she made about Gloanna. But I wonder where the suspicion of Ang went?

Post 94: Votes Eomer to keep options open as well as due to suspicion.

Now there are obvious reasons for killing spawn. Her analyses are legendary and extremely helpful, so the wolves would be getting rid of someone who might well catch them out with logic and reason later, something that is far harder to argue against than a gut feeling which is what many players rely on. In addition she would be a very dangerous Seer, which is presumably who the wolves are attempting to kill at the moment.

From what I've just read over I can't find any other reason that she would have been killed. She made good comments, analysed a couple of people but didn't have any absolute suspicions and didn't say that anyone was entirely innocent. So she left few trails and therefore was a pretty safe kill for the wolves.

At this moment Nogrod is quite suspicious to me but I have little reasoning bar that mentioned earlier. I will go over his posts (argh so many!) in a bit and see if I can find something more than I have. As well as that I think Volo is quite suspicious because he is defending Nogrod, and even if Nogrod is completely innocent it is odd for one player to defend another, so I'll be looking at him as well.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

even a chimp could convince people to lynch Eomi.

So getting him lynched takes a very clever wolf actually to make sure he dies?

[Meneltarmacil]

I find it likely that somebody in the voting list for Eomer was probably a wolf. And Nogrod does seem like the most likely candidate. He conrtibuted a lot to Eomi's lynching, but didn't vote until someone else (Volo) had already done so, so that it wouldn't look like he was starting the bandwagon.

Of course, if he's not a wolf, Lommy may be, as she jumped onto the Eomer bandwagon as well, and her vote wasn't very strategic, so she couldn't be accused of directly lynching Eomer.

As for Volo, I don't find him all that likely to be a wolf, as wolves generally don't cast the first vote in bandwagons, at least as far as I recall.

[Durelin]

Ohh, and I so thought Spawn was a likely wolf candidate after that last minute Eomer-lynching fiasco. What on earth was that about? He didn't have a single vote, and then a group of you get together and start plotting? On Day One? That sounds a little too friendly for my tastes.

But though I really want to think there is at least one wolf among those who secured Eomer's fate, I kinda doubt there is. It was Day One...the voting was spread as usual...I don't see the wolves having anything to worry about. I think, though they likely would have waited as long as they could before voting, they'd go with a safer vote. This "last minute" collaboration just stands out too much....unless a wolf is trying to hide among sheep?

A wolf has to try and look like a sheep to hide among them, and being sheepish to me means a safe vote.

Where was the safest vote in all that?

Well, the first one. Vote, your done, and you can wash your hands of it, say you're clean.

The Wolf among the Sheep: Volo

And what's interesting to me, though I'm not going to put much worth in it, is this:

Originally Posted by Volo

Actually I found one. In her first
post...

Her explanation of the Twins being good? That doesn't look like a hint to me, just more like an explanation. But could that be why the wolves picked her? Surely a second night kill isn't a major strategic point...might something this simple be the deciding factor?

So does Volo just think like a Wolf well, or does he have a secret?

I think Boro's right about Nogrod's behavior. I think he might well be innocent...for now.

[Kitanna]

While it is distressing to have lost the twins I can see why Spawn was picked. It has been said over and over that on later days her posts can be devasting to the wolves. I wholeheartedly agree. I don't really think she was suspected of being a twin. Volo mentioned her first post as a possible clue, but I'm not sure it was meant to be as such.

Upsetting, but not all that surprising was Spawn's death. For now I'm more inclined to concentrate my efforts on those who voted Eomer (and should time permit those who voted Kath)

Volo mentioned Eomer in post 75 stating:

Eomi, like Dorimor88 said, nothing can be found to say about Eomi. I suggest you stop you in characterism for a while and say something. If you ask me, he has contributed close to nothing but seems to be awake.

In his post for 86 he defends Kath by saying he's not sure what is so wrong with her second post. His next post he votes for Eomer, not stating his reason there, but he stated it earlier. After he votes he continues to defend Kath. Seemingly stirring the vote toward Eomer and myself.

Ok I need to go for an hour or two, but I will pick up with Volo's posts from today and the other Eomer voters.

[Nogrod]

Our little thief is either not listening to what others say or then he is knowingly trying to play down all points made to go for his wished conclusion... And who here has known targets except the wolves?

And if someone is flip-flopping in this game (if that can be made an argument), then just look at this:

He [me] conrtibuted a lot to Eomi's lynching, but didn't vote until someone else (Volo) had already done so, so that it wouldn't look like he was starting the bandwagon.

As for Volo, I don't find him all that likely to be a wolf, as wolves generally don't cast the first vote in bandwagons, at least as far as I recall.

Now trying to make a mountain out of a molehill now are we? Trying to support suspicions that have no grounds just to fool others thinking there is something? If this is not wolfy-looking, I don't know what is... And possibly covering for your friend too?

I already asked Runi yesterDay how he could find this little hobbit an innocent above all others. I had my doubts of him then but not enough. Now I think I might look at him more closely.

And I agree with Kathin about Voloin's backing me up looking somewhat fishy too. At least when I'm tending to add that as a wolf my lorebooks tell me that he is quite toned down and as an innocent he leaps here, there and everywhere...

EDIT: X'd with Durelin & Kitanna

[Kath]

Nogrod can I just ask why you think that is a flip-flop? Looking at it he's saying the same thing in a different way. He is using one point, the idea that a wolf won't vote first in a possible bandwagon, to point out guilt in you and innocence in Volo.

It seems that you either misunderstood or you're twisting words.

[Anguirel]

Everyone, I have suffered various communication woes. I'm sorry I haven't been that helpful so far, and hope to triumphantly re-engage after some sleep. I do have thoughts and will attempt to detail them at length on my return, including an explanation of my conduct vis a vis Dori88.

At first sight that Voloin case looks quite interesting, incidentally.

[Meneltarmacil]

Durelin:
If Volo was a wolf and went after dancing spawn because he suspected her of being a Twin, I doubt he'd mention his thoughts that led to the killing unless he was trying to double-bluff.

Now if anyone thinks I'm trying to say Volo is completely innocent, that isn't the case. It is possible that he's a wolf; however, he is not at the top of my list.

[Valier]

I agree with menel on this. I also looked at who mentioned the twins yesterday and noticed Spawn's first post. Volo mentioning it makes me think he is innocent at the moment. Also Menel for mentioning about Volo.
Boro seems fairly normal to me as of now and I will not vote for him.

People who have come to my mind as suspicious are Rune...he seems more helpful then normal, but we will see....Nogrod...I have been fooled before by a bad Nog and I am getting that feeling now. Farael also can be very sneaky.

Sorry but I haven't quite got a handle on everyone else yet so it's back to reading.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kath

Nogrod can I just ask why you think that is a flip-flop? Looking at it he's saying the same thing in a different way. He is using one point, the idea that a wolf won't vote first in a possible bandwagon, to point out guilt in you and innocence in Volo.

It seems that you either misunderstood or you're twisting words.

Yes you can. I tried to turn and check that one over and over again a couple of times before I posted it and thought I had it right. Let's try to see the reasoning here then as I see it.

He (menel-hobbit) says that I'm a baddie as I wait for Voloin to vote as not to be seen as one who started the bandwaggon (= those who start are looked as the guilty ones). Then he says that Voloin started it and is innocent looking (= those who start are not looked as guilty ones). I see a contradiction here. And something very fishy begging the question as goes with cases that are made forcibly, not with a genuine way the innocents try to make them...

And also it should be seen that after one or two votes it's not a bandwaggon yet. It's easy to be "wise" afterwards. It was not a bandwaggon when Voloin voted or when I did as no one else than Beornómien and Spawn knew whom they were going to vote when our votes were cast. It became a bandwaggon only after both Voloin and myself had already voted...

[Meneltarmacil]

Quite simply, it's not often that a wolf actually starts the bandwagon. They'll usually wait unti someone else has posted so as not to look suspicious. I suppose Volo could be double-bluffing there, but it'd be pretty dangerous to have double-bluffed twice at this point.

I'll be silent for a couple of hours or so starting now, by the way.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Menel

Durelin:
If Volo was a wolf and went after dancing spawn because he suspected her of being a Twin, I doubt he'd mention his thoughts that led to the killing unless he was trying to double-bluff.

Yep, that's why I'm not putting much worth in that. Still, it's a nice, simple double bluff, so it's always possible.

I agree with Valier about Rune's behavior, and Nogrod and Kath on Volo's behavior: they're being too practical for my tastes. Practicality will get us nowhere! Too bad we can't lynch them together.

Valier's behavior, though I perfectly understand time constraints, is also making me wary. The "I say this, I say this...but I gotta go" routine...it is likely true, but I must say, it comes across as an effort to seem distracted, which is a good, simple tactic to keep yourself looking innocent. A wolf has something to lose...an ordinary villager may not want to die, but, it's not the same. So appearing distracted rather than focused points toward innocence. Yes, yes, so my suspicion of her is all based on her "distracted-ness" seeming forced. Lynch her.


Question, Valier:

Originally Posted by Val

Also Menel for mentioning about Volo.

What do you mean, exactly? Sorry, I'm just slightly confused by that. You think Menel to be innocent because he pointed out that he thinks Volo to be more likely innocent than not?

Nogrod is seeming a little defensive...but right now I can believe that it is due to what Boro has pointed out: if Nogrod is innocent, he is quite into actively helping the village, and so more adverse to having his life threatened than some of us. And though the wolves are certainly adverse to it, they're much less likely to show it. Still, might as well lynch him, to be on the safe side.

Menel, I'm very confused by your logic. I don't like that. Lynch!

Ang is being shifty. But he's Ang. But he's shifty. Lynch him.

Boro is like Boro-lite these days. I hate "diet foods." Lynch.

Kath is Kath, but seems eager to find fault with Nogrod...he'd make a very dangerous wolf, though, so I can see why she would do that. She'd make an equally dangerous wolf, though. Lynch her.

Holby seems sensible, though for a bit there I forgot she was playing. But then it's only Day 2 after a pretty quiet Day 1, and I can't say I've fully memorized the list yet... Let's make it easier for me and lynch her.

I find it interesting how, though there were several people with the "oh, yeah, look at Kitanna all guilty over there" thing going on yesterDay, but I haven't heard a peep about her today. Funny thing about Day Ones, I suppose. She's nearly as shifty as Ang, though, which means I can't make any hasty judgments or assumptions about her. Curses. Can we lynch her anyway?

Farael's scaring me. I forgot he was playing, too. Lynch.

Lommy's vote makes her suspicious to me. But really, her vote is no more suspicious than Dancing Spawn's... I wish we could hear more from her, as she is very helpful when innocent, but I know that is difficult... And I also know she's very dangerous when evil. Lynch before it's too late?

Nilp wasn't here to vote for himself on Day 1. Let's help him out toDay. Lnycheth.

So...did I miss anyone?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Quite simply, it's not often that a wolf actually starts the bandwagon. They'll usually wait unti someone else has posted so as not to look suspicious.

First of all. Were I a wolf, I would have loved to start it to avoid any suspicions! Secondly. Please remember what I said: it was not a waggon before Beornómien and Spawn made it such. Voloin couldn't have known he was starting a bandwaggon, neither I that I would be adding to it as there were none at the time we voted. There was no bandwaggon before the last votes made it such.

And following this logic of part-time ignorance we should say that a wolf never wishes to cast a first vote to anyone (as it might be a start of a bandwaggon) which clearly is contrary to the evidence in WW...

Please people, stop being wise after the fact and even try to see it from the point of view of one who actually was there in the end. I didn't know the things you and I know now back then. And Spawn didn't know. And I believe Beornómien didn't. About Voloin I'm not so sure, but that's another matter.

Sorry. I'm getting a bit frustrated with this off-focus discussion.

If you wish, spend your whole Day speculating how I'm such a stupid villain who tries to get especially Eomi to be lynched for whatever reason and with whatever cost as far as not to play it safe instead wisely. Consider this.

If you, on the other hand think I was trying to protect Kathin or / and Glóanna, be my guests and lynch them. They're at the top of my list still (I'll make the rest of my points - as I think I have some new ones too - after I get some sleep).

Originally Posted by Durelin

Nogrod is seeming a little defensive...but right now I can believe that it is due to what Boro has pointed out

If it were just Nori88 ... What else have people been talking about toDay?

[Kitanna]

I am back to continue looking through Eomer's voters.

Volo started today with a cite of one of Nogrod's posts about Eomer. One that may have led Volo to vote Eomer yesterday, not sure. He also continues his defense of Kath. Then he says this:

His suspicion of Eomi is a mistake, but I'm the last one who can blame for that, except for the fact that it was probably Runi who started seriously talking about Eomi being guilty, here. I wouldn't go as far as voting him, Duriel just is scarier.

I'm not entirely sure how to take this. There's something in his wording that worries me. I can't quite put my finger on it yet...

Moving on, Nogrod was the next voter for Eomer. The first he really mentions any worry over Eomer is when he says:

Orilin and Eomi have seemingly left the house for toDay and not left a lot to be said of them. That I find a bit worrysome.

in post 61. His next post addresses Eomer's Day 1 behavior post. In Nogrod's post 66 he goes into detail about why Eomer is making him worried. This is the same post Volo used at the beginning of the today. He says he finds Eomer's posts fishy and wonders what Eomer is trying to accomplish. He looks at other possible folks he suspects, but he keeps on Eomer.

Then I'm pretty unsettled with Orilin and Eomi. Both have been extremely careful. A bit too careful to my taste. I have made a few notes about Eomi just earlier and will take a look at Orilin soon to see if I can add anything of value that has not been said already.

He waits until late to vote. That seems to be a normal thing for Nogrod though. His vote did tie Eomer with me.

Spawn voted next, but seeing as her innocence is proven I will move on to Lommy. She says that Nogrod is flip-floppy, but also says he is most likely just staying in character. In the same post she says she will probably not vote for Eomer (Spawn, Menel, Volo are included there as well as a reluctance toward Boromir, Nogrod, and Farael). Her next post points to Kath.

One thing in Kath's behaviour rings my alarms.

Really. That sounds very much like a wolfish "I-say-something-good-of-someone-just-for-the-sake-of-saying-good-of-somebody" -comment, since if you take a closer look at my post, what "good points" I can possibly have there? Those were the few first things crossing my mind after reading the thread. The post consist of crying over dead animals, ridiculing rhyme-patterns, making some jokes/corrections about bears and penguins, making one point (though not even a very incrimintaing one) against Nogrod, agreeing about Kitanna seeming suspicious without adding anything new about her, naming a few innocentish people and forbidding people to steal honey. What on earth are the "good points" over there, I wonder.

Next she says Nogrod has some good points about the fishiness of Eomer. In the same post she mentions feeling uneasy about Menel. Next she says she'll probably vote for me or Kath unless she uncovers something about us rereading our posts.

I'm quite at loss. Kathin and Glóanna don't seem as suspicious to me as they seemed before (though I still think they're both a bit suspicious), but I don't particularly suspect anyone else either.

Finally she votes for Eomer. And I'm wondering why. She thought he was a bit fishy, but a few of her last votes indicated she wasn't so suspicious to vote for him, unless I am missing something there. Her vote post said this:

Well, then: Glóanna has contributed more than Eomi.

++Eomi

I'm not sure what knocked Kath off of that completely and that I find unsettling.

Of the three voters of Eomer that live I actually find Volo the most suspicious. He seems to try to steer voting away from Kath. Such action can be taken in a few ways. Most notably to my mind is an attempt to gain the trust of an innocent.
The voter I find the next most suspicious is Lommy. At first she spoke a little of Eomer, but dropped him in favor of Kath and myself and then in her last post of the day had dropped Kath and voted Eomer. A bit baffling to me.

[Nogrod]

Just a couple of thoughts before I go to sleep. (I started this before I made my last post but decided to post this in whole)

It may be one of the lynchers of Eomi was a wolf. It goes quite without saying if you look at basic random probabilities of any collection of four dwarves (wizards, hobbits, skinchanger Beornings). Those pressing on that fact and not noticing any other possibilities I still find a bit dubious then as I can't see any possible reason for any wolf to get it's furry claws involved in such an open matter. As you can see, almost no one has remade the suspicions on Kathin or Glóanna toDay because all this concentration on the last Day's last moments... Good for them if they're furry indeed.

Most of us have generation-old knowledge and experience of these things and any sane wolf among us would avoid that kind of publicity as it's just the same for them who of us innocents gets killed. Why would a wolf wish to kill Eomi last Night, I mean so desperately as to start a campaign or trying openly to make it happen? Why? Look at what has happened to me as I was the first to actually suggest there was something fishy in Eomi's posts yesterDay! (some others had suspected him too earlier but only vaguely so far) Please give me a bit more credit... Were I a wolf I would have voted conveniently for Glóanna or Kathin about an hour before the deadline (were they innocents) as I had had some points against them earlier and just watched the things unfold with a grin.

Of Eomi-voters Spawn was innocent (and had she not died the vultures lead by the wolves would have been on her toDay as it is so suspicious to be on the third place in a waggon). Beornómien feels innocent to me with her openly displayed frustration and angst in the last moments. That kind of gave me the assurance, at least for a while now. Voloin I'm a bit concerned though, as I've already said.

So back to the tracks then?

Kathin has been more than happy to try and shift the focus from the suspicions on her yesterDay to me with almost one-sided fervour. And she has been succesful, I must say. Look at her posts from this point of view and see for yourselves.

Glóanna's guilt I was doubting a bit in the end of yesterDay and now I see her even less guilty. She might be pulling it and I wouldn't be surprised for it, but she's not my top suspect right now.

Nori88 I believe was testing early in the Day and I wouldn't go on lynching him. As I said, as long as the Seer is alive I'm inclined to trust him...

Mr. Anguirelshield I'd be watching. The points made by Nori88 late yesterDay (comparing to the Valier-story) are noteworthy. Also his happiness to make something like a last call yeasterDay to say he was unhappy with Eomi gone before he was declared innocent bears notifying. How did he know he was innocent? He can say he didn't know it, but why did he declare it? To look good?

Valier the Grey is beginning to give me the creeps also. So little and so in haste. She could pull that and laugh later... I know it.

Menel-hobbit seems to be also one who is happy to join any promising bandwaggon of suspicion to make the discussion stay on the wrong tracks. I do not like the way he interacts here. Too safe and too calculated...

Obviously all of these can not be wolves. But some of them I'm sure are.

EDIT: X'd with Glóanna

[Durelin]

Ah, I forgot, Noggy. People have been so quiet. No wonder you're upset!

In truth, my suspect list:

Volo
Kath
Valier or Lommy...tied for the number three spot.

Kath is just bothering me, and I'm not sure why.

This in particular, though it seems (and very likely might be) trivial:

Originally Posted by Kath

You made fun of the idea that the baddies and Twins had been chosen because their names rhymed, which I'm pretty sure no one else had. That was a bit of Day 1 nonsense but it was still good to see that someone knew it was nonsense.

Now, Kath is very smart. And she herself mentions "Day 1 nonsense." Surely she didn't really think everyone who mentioned the whole rhyming thing was being serious? Personally I can't see how anyone could think anyone was serious about that.


And then there's this:

Originally Posted by Kath

Good to see someone focusing on why spawn was killed, Holby. I was about to ask why no one had yet.

And then she does her lengthy Spawn analysis...hours later, other than that, all she's done is poke Nogrod a few times, perhaps just testing the waters (some very specific waters), maybe trying to get him to slip up, either to out him as a Wolf, or, I think more likely, to get him to incriminate himself.

But back to that quote in particular... Why does she want to look so closely at why Spawn was killed? It's the first Wolf kill pick...Day 1 was prime Wolfing time (pretty much as usual). Spawn was innocent...I think that's plenty enough reason for her to get picked by the wolves, and then there's the fact that she can analyze and all that. Why spend so much time looking for a trail on the first kill?

Distraction from anything worthwhile. Not pointing to anyone specific while still appearing quite helpful.

Maybe (and quite likely) I am reading more into these things than I should, but...whatever. Like there's such a thing in this crazy world with Werewolves, anyway.

Plus, the Kath and Volo connection is a good possibility.

But...why make it so obvious? I still feel like Volo is very likely not innocent...or Kath very likely isn't. But I can't say that both likely are at all. I'm actually sensing a Fenris Wolf. If Volo is a wolf, I'm pretty tempted to say that proves Kath innocent. Is it possible Volo is setting us up for his lynching, and pointing us in a nice wrong direction?

And is one of his Wolfish pals sitting back and laughing as they help the village hone in on him?

Speaking of reading too much into things... I'm going to go for a while, and come back with my mind refreshed...hopefully. I'll have to vote in just a few hours, unfortunately.

[Kitanna]

I'm feeling quite under the weather and will turn in soon. I will probably get on about a half an hour before day ends, but that will have me rushing to vote before deadline. So I cast my vote now in case I sleep through the end of day or I get on with no time to speak and comment properly.

Volo and Lommy have me the most worried. I have stated more than once that Volo seemed to be steering away from Kath, trying to state her innocence. I find it a rather reckless move, but a cunning one at the same time. There is something unsettling in his first post (mainly what was said about Rune). There's something that feels wrong. He has been helpful, but some of his posts have seemed "just helpful enough" to make him appear as an innocent to all eyes. And in his last post of yesterday he tried to get the last voters to either vote for Eomer or myself (a cross-post with the last votes for Eomer I believe), that post looks very odd given its nature of trying to help Kath. In all that I'm not sure what to say about Kath.

Lommy seems slightly more innocent. She went back and forth on her feelings toward Eomer and Kath. I'm surprised she voted for Eomer. The way I look at her vote and the posts leading up to it, it seemed like she was being pressured to do so by various other posters. That eases my mind about her, but not enough to completely remove her from my suspect list. I will continue to watch her closely.

For my vote:

++ Volo

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Noooooooooooooooooo! Spawn is dead! Dead! And to think she were the reason I'm here . . .

I shall be forced, once again, to take up my swor--axe, and avenge her.

(I'll be posting something more useful later, I promise. ^^Y Give me time to masticate.)

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I already asked Runi yesterDay how he could find this little hobbit an innocent above all others. I had my doubts of him then but not enough. Now I think I might look at him more closely.

No you didn't. . . You made a statement about not being able to see why I though Menel Innocent.

Anyways I don't know wether I should be conserned about the suspicions people have mentioned or flattered. I am glad if I am being more helpfull, one allways try to be, but one do not want to get lynched either.

This post is not really going to be helpful, but I have something I want to say.

There is to me a difference between being helpfull and making unesisary long posts. . .Sometimes it seems like people are analysing for analysing sake and using up lots of space on saying nothing. I personaly prefer when the post goes straight to the point with out too much weaving, it is makes things more comprehencable. . .sometimes it feels like slow death to read through them all and you end up fearing neither Eru or Ocean.

I am not asking people to use one liners, just don't keep writing when you have said what you wanted to say.
I will be back later with some thought on who to lynch.

[Farael]

Real Life getting in the way, no time for a proper vote... and since Nilp won't do it, I'll say

++Farael

[Boromir88]

Nori88 I believe was testing early in the Day and I wouldn't go on lynching him.~Bofgrod

And for today you passed.

As you can see, almost no one has remade the suspicions on Kathin or Glóanna toDay because all this concentration on the last Day's last moments

In no way have I forgotten about Gloanna...I don't see what all the fuss about Kathin is...but Gloanna is a wolf.

Glóanna's guilt I was doubting a bit in the end of yesterDay and now I see her even less guilty.

Oh really...how did you get that impression. I see Gloanna falling hook-line-and sinker here. She is pushing for the focus on the Eomi voters, seems like she trying to keep the village looking that way.

One thing Bofgrod, about you...you're an amazing villager, if you be innocent I praise Aule that we're finally on the same side...But you overthink yourself at times more than your own good, when a werewolf is sitting right dead in front of your face. There's no doubt at times I can do the same, which lead me the wrong way, but I try my hardest not to. You know once in a while there is a bold, crafty wolf out there that will double-bluff but there are 2 more of them, and no matter how guilty they may look as wolves, they still to the typical wolf-style. And that right there is their very cover! As people start overanalyzing and saying 'Oi, that's way to obvious to be a wolf.'

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Made this long post that made some sense--which was surprising, considering what I thought before I made that--but lost it. Argh!

Will attempt to recapture essence of that post. Curses!

[Valier]

I have reread everything, but this cold is doing a number on my brain. Yes I am distracted, and no I know it's no excuse, but I am sure I will be feeling better really soon.

I was suspicious of Farael and now he votes for himself....bluff? well I am willing to let him go seeing as only an innocent would throw in the towel (or a very bold wolf) Nog just isn't sitting right with me as well as now Lommy. After reading her posts she seems well....calm. Lommy I find tends to get a little freaked out when she has a role (no offence ) I just have this weird feeling......I am not sure if I will have time to vote later on, so I shall do it now. I may have time to comment quickly before the day ends.

++ Thinlomien

[Durelin]

Unfortunately, I also have to vote, because I am not getting up early in order to do so before school. Sorry guys.

++Kath

I think Volo's a waste of time (sorry Volo), at least for now. If he is a wolf, he's a bold one, a foolish one, or a Fenris...or something. Maybe. I don't know.

Though Kitanna's moved up on my suspicion list. I think Boro makes a good point about her, and I'm willing to trust him for now. There's been too much focus on the Eomer voters, and I contributed to it...though personally I had to work my way from that into the bigger picture. If only I had time tomorrow before the deadline.

Anyway...sorry, it's off to bed with me now. Ta. And don't go killing someone random at the last minute this time, please.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

It's a list of votes. Holby already made one, but I decided to make my own, with my own comments.

[Times are in GMT +8; known innocents are underlined]

05:47am Éomer - spawn (spawn - 1)
07:44am Kitanna - Naria (spawn - 1; Naria - 1)
09:22am Durelin - Rune (spawn - 1; Naria - 1; Rune - 1)
04:04pm Naria - Kitanna (spawn - 1; Naria - 1; Rune - 1; Kitanna - 1)
07:23pm Kath - Farael (spawn - 1; Naria - 1; Rune - 1; Kitanna - 1; Farael - 1)
08:34pm Rune - Farael (spawn - 1; Naria - 1; Rune - 1; Kitanna - 1; Farael - 2)


This was the first vote cast for a person already with a vote, the makings of a bandwaggon. Were there indications of such a thing being made?

There were jocular accusations thrown by B88 (18) and Ang (26), but Kitanna (28) seized upon B88's aforementioned post and made something of it. Menel (41) thought it was fishy. Afterwards B88 (47) and spawn (48) have made excellent cases against her. But I digress--later on that.

Nevertheless, Farael (44) was suspected using something that made sense (qq.v. Kath 53, Holby 56, Rune 59.) So I see little fishiness--or hairiness, I should say--in the votes against him.


10:22pm Menel - Kath (spawn - 1; Naria - 1; Rune - 1; Kitanna - 1; Farael - 2; Kath - 1)
10:31pm Holby - spawn (spawn - 2; Naria - 1; Rune - 1; Kitanna - 1; Farael - 2; Kath - 1)


This vote tied spawn with Farael. (Speaking of, are there double-lynchings?) An attempt by a wolf to save her fellow? Perhaps. But with nine vote still uncast after this, I think not. It could be that Holby will be unable to get online after this, and trusted her fellow wolf/wolves to hold the fort. But since there was no outstanding suspicion on spawn, this plan would have better worked by casting a vote on someone more suspicious. Nicht wahr?


10:44pm Ang - B88 (spawn - 2; Naria - 1; Rune - 1; Kitanna - 1; Farael - 2; Kath - 1; B88 - 1)
10:54pm B88 - Kitanna (spawn - 2; Naria - 1; Rune - 1; Kitanna - 2; Farael - 2; Kath - 1; B88 - 1)


This ties Kitanna with Farael and spawn. Although it is less interesting than the events that follow, it should be noted that there was an excellent case against Kitanna, which I am inclined to believe. Should she turn lupine, I'd say either Volo or Nogrod might be one of her fellows, seeing as they distracted the rest of the village, and shifted suspicion from her.


11:17pm Volo - Éomer (spawn - 2; Naria - 1; Rune - 1; Kitanna - 2; Farael - 2; Kath - 1; B88 - 1; Éomer - 1)
11:21pm Nogrod - Éomer (spawn - 2; Naria - 1; Rune - 1; Kitanna - 2; Farael - 2; Kath - 1; B88 - 1; Éomer - 2)
11:22pm spawn - Éomer (spawn - 2; Naria - 1; Rune - 1; Kitanna - 2; Farael - 2; Kath - 1; B88 - 1; Éomer - 3)
11:22pm Lommy - Éomer (spawn - 2; Naria - 1; Rune - 1; Kitanna - 2; Farael - 2; Kath - 1; B88 - 1; Éomer - 4)


These last four votes already have been discussed exhaustively.

Since I appear to be unable to return here after this, I must cast my vote now. She has been unable to explain away the case made against her yesterDAY, using the aftershock of the NIGHT death, it seems, as a cloak. Therefore I vote for:

++Kitanna

Good day, all.

[Meneltarmacil]

I'm back again.

Boromir88 worries me less now than before. He seems to be explaining himself a lot more than on Day One.

As for Nilp *throws a pie at him,* I'm glad to see he finally spoke up, as I missed his attempted self-lynching. Good analysis, my friend, and I don't find you suspicious.

Anyway, I'm not going to lynch Nogrod just yet. I'll worry about him later. I'm probably going to vote for Kitanna and see what happens.

[Anguirel]

On Nori88:

He's right that I often vote for him on Day One, but it's not part of a system or a trademark action. I'd never even noticed the fact that I do it particularly often before. However, I think I can explain this propensity. In WWX, Nori88 pulled the wool over my Ranger eyes so thoroughly that I've been wary of him ever since.

Look at my voting post though; I did mean what I said. I found that consequence-led statement about "If Gloanna is lynched, then I'll investigate X and Y" dangerous thinking (especially, I admit, as Y was I think myself...)

However, had I saved my casting vote I would have undoubtedly saved Eomer. I wasn't sure he was innocent - indeed he behaved in a similar way as he did in Fea's game, where he was guilty - but it seemed cruel to finish him before he got into his stride.


On Voloin:

I could see that highlighting of dwancing's Twin interests as a giveaway gloat of a victorious wolf.

I've done it myself before. The wolf appears helpful and lucid, and colours the evidence with his own thoughts, so it's an astute move, though it might have proved risky for Voloin.

I don't really think his Eomi vote makes him more or less likely to be lupine. But at the moment I do suspect him.


On the kill:

It's possible that Dwalin was targetted purely because she'd voted for the lynch-victim and thus left little in the way of a trail. She was also one of the most helpful analysts around, in my view. A very sad loss.

[Thinlómien]

I'll make just a quick response to Voloin, since my lesson begins in five minutes. I'll be back with more things in a few hours.

Voloin, you misunderstand me. My suspicion about Balthin wasn't very strong at any phase. I did find her comment about my post suspicious, but otherwise, she didn't seem very suspicious. So, in general, she was "slightly suspicious" in my opinion, which was more suspicious than most of the rest of the "village".

[Thinlómien]

As quite many of you have been confused of my vote yesterday, I think I should maybe say a few words about it. I had been suspecting both Balthin and Glóanna - but neither very much, and everytime I reread, I became less assured I was interpreting them the right way. Then, there comes the possibility lynch Eomi. I had not been very suspicious of him earlier (as you might recall I said he seems innocent in some of my first posts), but as Bofgrod really had a point againt him and I was all the time feeling that maybe after all looking at Glóanna and Balthin was looking at the wrong direction. I admit the vote for Eomi was in a way quite rash, and less thought-of than a vote maybe should be. It was just the thing that felt most right back at that moment.

As to not mentioning Balthin in my voting post, rereading a bit did reduce my suspicion of her, and my choice was then between Glóanna and this new lynch-idea Eomi.

I hope that's enough about me, I think I have other things to say too...

Originally Posted by Bofgrod, about Anguirelshield

Also his happiness to make something like a last call yeasterDay to say he was unhappy with Eomi gone before he was declared innocent bears notifying. How did he know he was innocent? He can say he didn't know it, but why did he declare it? To look good?

I noticed just the same and wondered it too! I might be exagerrating and overinterpreting this, but to me that sounds like he knew Eomi was innocent. And how could he know it? By being a wolf or the seer. And seers definitely are more careful than to do slips like this and don't have an urge to make comments like this, unlike wolves or ordos could have.

The village has mostly concentrated on Eomi-voters today. It's good that the bandwagon is analysed, but aren't we giving it a bit too much attention? Like Bofgrod says, this gives the wolves not involved in the bandwagon (in my opinion it is possible that there were two wolves - Voloin and Bofgrod - in the bandwagon or that there was one wolf or that there were no wolves at all in the bandwagon) a nice way to slip under the radar. As I'm quite assured some of you won't leave this topic (maybe even for a reason) the whole day, I have hereby decided to concentrate on other things so that they are analysed and looked through too...

Don't murder me for this, but I'm actually glad the twins are dead. I'm less glad about the fact that they were Naria and spawn, good players both. Spawn will especially be missed. But no we know that none of our lynches or none of the wolves' kills can kill two people at the same time. Later in the game, the swaying of balance like that could be fatal for the village.

Balthin, I understand your explanation of your statement about my post. That was actually the way I thought it could be interpreted. I'm sorry to say, but your explanation however doesn't make me less suspicious of you, since that's just the kind of explanation that can be either genuine or fabricated by a wolf afterwards.

Though I'm not sure what to think of his innocence/guilt, I'm glad to see Voloin this active in the discussion. Cheers!

One villager I'm less pleased with is Valier. Like Durelin, I don't like her come and go- tactics. It smells slightly like a werewolf wanting to say as little as possible, fearing she will reveal herself. Also, she votes me though she has not thought me suspicious before, though she haad other suspects in the previous post (Runi, Bofgrod, Durael).

Originally Posted by Durelin

And I also know she's [Lommy] very dangerous when evil.

Errr... how? I've been evil just once, and I was a Fenris Wolf... Weird statement.

I will be back in some hours, with a complete list of what I thought about everyone, since I don't have the time to make it right now.

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Valier

Nog just isn't sitting right with me as well as now Lommy. After reading her posts she seems well....calm. Lommy I find tends to get a little freaked out when she has a role (no offence ) I just have this weird feeling.

Valier, this doesn't make sense to me. You say she's calm and then you say when she has a special role she freaks out, so by that logic I would say that you would find her innocent.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

Valier, this doesn't make sense to me. You say she's calm and then you say when she has a special role she freaks out, so by that logic I would say that you would find her innocent.

I wondered about it too, but then I thought she meant that "special role" means gifted (though I can't see how wolf is not a special role), and I'm not gifted-looking at all so it's safe for her to vote me, because in her opinion I'm either a wolf or an ordo.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

As I said I find Nogrod suspiciouse, even before the whole Eomi deal. But I must admit that he has made points with some merit and I am convinced it would be better to let him be for now. I am not at all putting in the clear, but I feel that there are other people I would like to see off first.

I might vote Valier. . .I cannot figure out what to think about her, she seem to be very random in her appearentses and in her statements. This is something that is always a concern of mine as it will be almost impossible for me to form an opinion of her and I would hate to vote for a person on those merits alone later in the game.

Then there is Farael, my view on him has not changed since yesterday, infact he just pussles me more than before. I am of course talking about his vote today.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

ok I am going to let Farael off this time as he did give reason for his vote, which I can kind of understand. I would probably never do so my self and find it a bit odd, but I can understand why one would want to do it.

So I will vote Valier

Because I am very unsure about her and doubt that I will become more sure later, yeah I am just very uncomfortable with having her around.

++Valier

[Holbytlass]

++Thinlomien

I think she was trying to save a fellow wolf

[Meneltarmacil]

Interesting idea about Durelin, Lommy.

But for now, I'll vote for:

++Kitanna

[Nogrod]

Back for the last one and half hours.

Here's the score again... and please people, what are you thinking with this spread of votes? Like Holby said earlier it doesn't help at all as all votes begin to look more or less safe ones here!

Kitanna –> Volo
Farael –> Farael
Valier –> Lommy
Durelin –> Kath
Nilp –> Kitanna
Rune –> Valier
Holby –> Lommy (Volo1, Farael1, Lommy2, Kath1, Kitanna1, Valier1)
Menel -> Kitanna (Volo1, Farael1, Lommy2, Kath1, Kitanna2, Valier1)

EDIT: score upgraded with Menel's vote.

[Thinlómien]

- In my eyes Holby seems quite innocent. There is no especial reason for that. She is calm, reasonable and helpful (though sometimes nearly to a lupine extent, but I'm still quite at ease about her) and this

Originally Posted by Holby

I did see that but didn't take it as a clue because I was going to answer Anguriel's question since I had originally asked it on the admin thread, Dancing Spawn beat me to it.

speaks for her innocence. Also, when she was a lovercreature last time I played with her, she was a lot more jumpy and less reasonable.

- I'm not entirely sure what I think about Rune. He's a bit confusing (and maybe confused?), but there's nothing that'd make me suspect him. So seems pretty innocent for now.

- Farael's self-vote made me think him quite innocent. I'm aware that Farael is a bold player, but I don't think he would vote himself, be he a wolf (or gifted, for that matter) after being suspected more than slightly and by numerous villagers. Only an ordo can be that careless of his life, though even that is not (in my opinion) a recommendable attitude.

- Nilp seems pretty innocent too. One could argue that his post was a wolf-hiding-behind-statics -post, but I don't think he seems wolvish. He has a genuine air.

- Menel is very difficult. I have my reasons to consider him innocent and there's no problem with the "overall feel" of him, but he's indeed flip-floppy, and as pointed out, eager to join bandwagons.

- Durelin has been really convincingly innocentish today. She's been helpful and she's had good points. But her yesterday wasn't as innocentish and her "lynch all" post, though a joke it was, was something a wolf would be glad to do, not having to take sides on anything. I'll be watching her to form a clearer picture.

- I don't see Volo particularly suspicious by behaviour, but I'm not sure at all about him. Maybe I'm so delighted of his greatly increased participation that I mix it with him looking innocent? I don't know, he's difficult to analyse. But I think (no offense) that if he was a wolf, he'd be more jumpy. But on the other hand, he has been slightly somewhat jumpy/defensive today... So I don't know what to think of him.

- Boro is difficult too. Lately, when he has been a wolf, he's every single time given me a bad feeling I've not been able to define. In this game, he's not giving me one. (Not that he would give me an innocent feel either.) Should I, based on this, think him innocent? No! Boro is far too dangerous to be overlooked and I'm not any kind of prophet. By reasoning, it is always difficult to tell whether Boro is innocent or guilty, and this time is no exception. I'll be watching him.

- Now, Nogrod. He's a difficult one too. Some of the things he says just sound wrong. Kath does have a good point about him. But he's also reasonable and I like his attitude of pointing out things others don't notice or concentrate on, and "shaking" the village. All this feels quite innocentish too.

- I think I should have voted Kitanna after all. She has failed to answer the accusations directed at her and has focused all her energy today to the Eomer-voters. She hasn't commented on anything else! I think I'm going to really vote for her today, unless there is something more incriminating against someone else today.

- Kath is a bit suspicious. Her yesterday's comment about my post still bugs me a bit. Also, as has been pointed out, she's a bit too eager to attack him. But, she's not overtly suspicious. If you forget those little faults, she seems her normal, calm and helpful self. One must keep in mind she's a dangerous and good player...

- Anguirel is quite worrying too. His Eomer-comment just before the deathline yesterday is certainly odd. There's also another thing. Last night (ww-time) I checked the posts on this thread. He had second most posts (12). I remember him being present, but I don't remember him argumenting/ discussing/ making points very much. That worries me too.

- Lastly Valier. Truth be told I'm annoyed with her tactics. As I said, she could easily be a wolf avoiding to be caught by talking the minimal amount. She fails to convince me of her innocence. Okay, I admit, I might mix her annoying me with her being suspicious... Valier, you're a nice and clever gal, please speak up!

--------------

Originally Posted by Nilp

(Speaking of, are there double-lynchings?)

Nope.

Originally Posted by Rune

I see that I made a mistake, I thought Thorin said he would probably vote Durelin not Durin

As funny as they are, should we give up the names if they create this serious confusions? (Or this good excuses?)

In addition, Nogrod later in-directly agrees with Lommy that the points she made weren't good (post 67), which is technically a defense of himself just done in a way that doesn't make him look defensive.

True. Rather than that fact itself, the thing that worries me most is that by saying that he avoided answering the accusation.

edit: xed with the last three posts

[Boromir88]

Before I get into the rest of these posts here while I was away...I now believe Bomburlass is innocent.

[Anguirel]

Okay. I don't intend to spread the vote further - as far as I'm concerned, those six are an acceptable shortlist, though personally I'd include Dori somewhere in there. I think his relinquishing of his former anxiety about me is slightly suspicious.

Good catch, Beorn, about Orilin's nonsensical reference to you being dangerous when evil...but I don't think it's particularly suspicious. It's simply that your myth has spread beyond your accomplishments in the lupine arena, I suppose!

I know it's quite intolerant of me, especially if she's ill and drugged to the gills, but our wizard's elusiveness is worrying. Then again, I haven't been garrulous myself today.

All in all, I think perhaps we could do worse than follow up the prevailing suspicions of Day 1, so I am, after all, tempted to vote for Gloanna...