TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Intending to vote either Hakon, for calling Mira a liar via suggesting that her 'random' selection wasn't random, and for pulling meta reasoning in when it was forbidden, and for being abrasive; or for Morsul, for forcing me into a probability lesson when I'd much rather crayola my way through a fun project.

(SYTYCD is on; shan't be back for a couple hours.)

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also I think he is not reading people on even terms which always raises an eyebrow... and all that praise over someone saying that the wolves and the Bear are enemies who need to get rid of one another... is that news Saucie? Why praise Boro so many times for stating the obvious while others have been busy trying to get bad individuals caught?

Sometimes it's necessary to state the obvious.

Also when you get multiple people all discussing one topic that means statistically there's probably some villainy involved, which then gives us info to read through. I'm not saying we continue to rehash this same argument the next day and the next, but it's a good question to consider on Day 1, and seeing as many responded to it there's lots to look at.

The same goes for whether early posters are anxious wolves, or the entire confusion over the # of wolves and the good wolf...multiple people commented, now use it to try and find the most suspicious.

Edit: crossed with Sauce and Fea...ooh I better check to see if that DVRed or my roommate will kill me.

[The Saucepan Man]

++Morsul the Dark

... for reasons previously stated.

Adios amigos.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Spm

Have you been neglecting to take your exaggeration medication again, Noggie?

Oops... sorry guys...

Have you seen me not exaggerating things in ww - or elsewhere?

But to be honest you seem to be underplaying the thing saying it was a "passing mention"... how nicely phrased.


But with no good-enough candidate on Day1...

I have an impression of these people because of what they have posted / that they have posted substantially enough to give hints about what they think - or wish us to think.

Boro
Fea
Greenie
Hakon
Morsul
Nerwen
Pitchwife
Roa
Saucepan Man

So I can foresee I - or anyone else - is able to read them as the Days go by. And the more Days pass the easier it becomes (which is not to say it will become easy).

These people I have no idea about... (number of their posts after their names)

Brinn -1 (no idea but reasonable - points on Roa and Spm)
Inzil - 6 (what a failing on my side; this many posts and no idea)
Lari - 1 (no idea indeed)
Loslote 0 (where is she?)
McCaber -1 (was too keen to be nice to me, suspicious)
sally - 2 (I didn't like her two posts: showing a knowledgeable face but no input ehatsoever, trying to look nice, suspicious)
wilwa - 3 (no idea, but tend to think her readable later on)

Some may start posting in a Day or two - or even toDay. A tough call.

(I see what you people say about Morsul and even if I kind of agree with you I can see lynching him as an "easy way" as well)

But still looking at the numbers there should be at least two baddies in the latter department.

[Roa_Aoife]

I may be off and on for the rest of the Day, but I can't guarantee it, so I'm going to vote now.

++SPM

For being overly defensive, claiming that he wasn't suspecting me for other people's action but continuously bringing up the idea that I was sowing seeds of doubt, and now this whole "but we're probably two innocents duking it out" looks like he's trying to backpedal after Pitch pointed out the possibility.

[Loslote]

I'm here. Reading...

[Nogrod]

Which one is the worst?

Self-consciously joking - with only two posts but overdoing it trying to look light = Sally

Buddying up - even with time constraints only saying two people are good (me and Fea) = McCaber

Ignoring the game but posting - posting once saying "I'm here" and "pineapple". = Lari

Not showing at all - an innocent and not interested or shying away big time? = Lottie


I'll go with

++ McCaber

He looks the worst to me.


EDIT: X'd with Roa & Lottie

[Nienna]

Nienna's ghost floats in, materializes, and starts yelling.

NO META GAME.

She then looks over her glasses disapprovingly, vaporizes, and floats away.

[Loslote]

Okay, sorry. The Internet broke down and we only just got it back now. But I should be here until deadline? Hope so...

So far, Morsul looks most suspicious. His logic has left me confused while I try to figure out what he could possibly mean, and then trying to figure out where he got it.

Hakon used meta-game reasoning. Ugh. Annoying. Moving on...

I don't think SPAM is Were. He seems genuine to me, but, of course, I could be wrong.

I haven't gotten read on Roa. I'll look at her soon.

I'll look at everyone else now...those are just the ones I've noticed so far in my admittedly quick read-through.

EDIT: xed with Nienna

[Inziladun]

Hmm. I had been seriously considering going for SPM toDay. I don't have great deal on him; mainly I thought his responses to Roa looked somewhat overblown at times.
I didn't much like Morsul's vote for him, though. That was completely out of left field to me, and it seemed, from what I can tell, to be entirely based on Nog saying SPM was a likely cobbler. Now Roa has followed suit. Her vote, at least, wasn't exactly a surprise.
McCaber I would certainly like to see more of. I know he can be a very accomplished submarine, and he's had an uncanny ability in the past to totally slip by me. I think he bears watching, but I don't see why I should vote for him just yet.
Pitch's vote for Boro came across as rather forced, and a way to avoid being associated with a band-wagon. Granted, Boro's comment about Sally being the most suspicious was a bit weak, but how was Pitch's justification for Boro any better?
Hakon is not worth a vote just yet, but if he insists on keeping up the meta-gaming, I may have to agree with the others that he ought to be lynched just for causing unnecessary confusion.
And Morsul? Again, his vote for SPM feels foul.

x/d with Loslote
Time to ruminate for a bit.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Pitch's vote for Boro came across as rather forced, and a way to avoid being associated with a band-wagon. Granted, Boro's comment about Sally being the most suspicious was a bit weak, but how was Pitch's justification for Boro any better?

I meant out of all those who discussed the "early posters" that sally was the most suspicious of the bunch. Based on her stating she wanted to avoid the early posters are suspicious crap, but still being an early poster and saying nothing. I'm not making much of Pitch's vote, I will ask though, when does someone joking automatically mean we should ignore it and not find it suspicious? Are you not familiar with the evil jesters?

And if anyone is the most suspicious to me it is Morsul...although I'm wary about the people popping out to say the same. His vote seemed sudden and non-chalant, but how would a wolf-Morsul benefit by voting for an innocent-SpM? I mean if he was throwing a vote out of the blue...unless he was trying to cash-in on the Roa and Sauce battle.

I also have an unexplainable suspicious feeling towards Nogrod. I've only scanned the posts past #55, but his suspicions against Greenie make me wary. I've read Greenie horribly wrong before, but by Nogrod pointing out he's usually suspicious of Greenie, so maybe we should take it as a "pinch of salt" looks safe. Like he has picked someone he usually suspects and tells us we shouldn't think to0 much about it. I haven't read through his posts on Sauce and Roa yet.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

in theory 4 days is our time limit for the village...

Am I missing something? I didn't know there was a time limit.

[Hakon]

He arrived at four days because there are two kills a night and one lynch a day. 17 of us total and two die a night and one a day. Assuming we do not kill the bear in that time frame you are talking about 4 lynches and 8 kills at night. There are 12 innocents counting gifteds. I am hoping we will at least get a wolf in that time frame but Morsul is right in theory we have four days well less since the wolves just need to be at equal numbers and then it would become wolves versus bear which would be cool but boring in a way.

[satansaloser2005]

Over four pages. I hate you all. *whimpers* Off to read; back if I can.

[Boromir88]

I double <3s Mira's new sig.

at this point I'm just going to read down the page and comment as I go...

55-wilwa's looks ok, she brought an interesting point about the Lovers, but she doesn't have enough posts right now to form a more solid opinion beyond "ok."

66-Nog concludes Sauce is the cobbler. That is something I completely did not think about. There's a difference though between causing confusion because you can't figure out something the mod said and intentionally causing confusion for the sake of confusion (wow confusion was used way to much in that confusing sentence ). Also, would the cobbler say the bear should kill the wolves?

68- Is my computer crazy or did McCaber grey-out part of his post?

69- Nog's suspicion of Greenie looks better than what I thought about my previous scan. I am suspicious of Greenie because of some of her playful commments like her being "caught" as a wolf, and in #23 when she feels like she wants to do a list but won't because of the # of people who haven't posted (what about those who had?)

75- Greenie, your first posts were bear-focused...I wouldn't go so far as an obsession but you pointed out you had never been in a village with a bear and talked about the bear frequently early on.

Alas, so true. I wonder if I shouldn't take my own suspicions seriously because I always suspect you. A pinch of salt, indeed.

Trying to convince Nogrod he shouldn't vote for you because he usually finds you suspicious?

79- Greenie votes Nog

Next page...

[satansaloser2005]

P.S. Does anyone love me enough to give me a vote count? Please?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

And if anyone is the most suspicious to me it is Morsul...although I'm wary about the people popping out to say the same. His vote seemed sudden and non-chalant, but how would a wolf-Morsul benefit by voting for an innocent-SpM? I mean if he was throwing a vote out of the blue...unless he was trying to cash-in on the Roa and Sauce battle.

Could be the latter. Morsul's vote was only the second one of the day. I could see a baddie having to sign off, but seizing on some previous suspicion thrown about by others to start a train.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I also have an unexplainable suspicious feeling towards Nogrod. I've only scanned the posts past #55, but his suspicions against Greenie make me wary. I've read Greenie horribly wrong before, but by Nogrod pointing out he's usually suspicious of Greenie, so maybe we should take it as a "pinch of salt" looks safe. Like he has picked someone he usually suspects and tells us we shouldn't think to0 much about it. I haven't read through his posts on Sauce and Roa yet.

Nog hasn't stood out to me much thus far, but his vote for McCaber did appear to be less well reasoned than I might expect from him.

[Morsul the Dark]

I've had a total of maybe 3 hours out of 24 to figure out who to vote for and I wasn't sure If I'd be back before the deadline because of my show...

I had to vote for someone based on the earliest posts that caused so much confusion about "Good" wolfs and the evidence placed by others I voted for SPM the vote was at best a 50-50 shot e was just in my opinion, the most suspicious out of those who had posted(When I voted).

I'm so Confused by Everyone thinking my vote was from left field?...

Sure my reasons weren't solid but then again day 1 not much to go on...

[Inziladun]

For Sally:


Greenie--> Nog (1)

Morsul--> SPM (1)

Pitch--> Boro (1)

SPM--> Morsul (1)

Roa--> SPM (2)

Nog--> McCaber (1)

[Morsul the Dark]

Ah thanks Inzil I was just about to do that

[Mirandir]

Just for the record, if anyone needs a vote count for the rest of the Day, I have my handy dandy notebook up to date next to me.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Ah thanks Inzil I was just about to do that

You're not the only one. Darn.

I've got to vote now, so

++ Morsul

because he's the most suspicious one so far.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Only popping in for a moment before I go to do my show... might have to vote now Even though I have nearly zero suspicions after reading everything.

Ok so the only one who really has a strong case would be SPM... the friendly wolf thing... but we were all confused.... but by the math not the wording...

SPM- you said we should always lyncha known cobbler rather than an unknown so Whether you're a cobbler or Wolf ....t]

Meaning I felt e was trying to confuse us... Note te first sentence I had nearly zero suspicion meaning I voted for SPM based on the fact he was the most suspicious of not suspicious people if I didn't have to vote I would've abstained because no one(At the point of that post) jumped out at me.

Does tat clear up my reasoning for anyone?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I've had a total of maybe 3 hours out of 24 to figure out who to vote for and I wasn't sure If I'd be back before the deadline because of my show...

I had to vote for someone based on the earliest posts that caused so much confusion about "Good" wolfs and the evidence placed by others I voted for SPM the vote was at best a 50-50 shot e was just in my opinion, the most suspicious out of those who had posted(When I voted).

I'm so Confused by Everyone thinking my vote was from left field?...

Sure my reasons weren't solid but then again day 1 not much to go on...

The reason your vote looked sudden and suspicious to me was the fact that you hadn't voiced any reservations about SPM before, and it looked like you were picking up on what Nog had said.

x/d with Lottie and Morsul

[Morsul the Dark]

that is true yes however being only able to come on for about 3 hours I didn't really ave time to do much of my own analisyss I had to hope that what I read was accurate enough... Thursday will be spotty as well

[Boromir88]

Not a whole lot on page 3, besides Hakon's posts and many people's reactions. I see no use in reading into any more about that. It is what it is.

The rest is basically between Roa and Sauce.

99- Sauce accuses Roa and Nog of being aggressive...not sure if that should be too shocking to Sauce. Roa is always aggressive and Nog while not always, can be. Is aggressiveness a sign of wolvery? If Sauce wasn't over-reacting to the suspicions before, he did in this post.

104- Sauce has a point, Roa throwing up her hands and trying to make it look like Sauce over-reacted to her very "moderate" suspicions.

Roa, in no way is this an insult, because it's a fine quality in werewolf. You push people, and you push hard, hence why some may look like they are over-reacting to what you think is a mild suspicion. Trust me, I know from first hand experience.

119- Nog doesn't like the buddying up people are doing, particularly Sauce. Noggers, I didn't take his words as appraisal and if he was and looking for favour, it didn't work.

Edit: crossed since Mira.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

The reason your vote looked sudden and suspicious to me was the fact that you hadn't voiced any reservations about SPM before, and it looked like you were picking up on what Nog had said.

Was going to say that, but I think the bigger point is in post #17 he argues how possible is it for Sauce being a wolf two straight times, and did so until Fea corrected it.

[Hakon]

++Morsul

I will not mention half my reasons for this vote since half are meta data. Half are not. The half that are not are pretty clear. They have been mentioned and I feel no need to repeated them in this post. I am out for the night although if I have still not finished school work I will pop on around DL and see who we lynched and what their role is.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

that is true yes however being only able to come on for about 3 hours I didn't really ave time to do much of my own analisyss I had to hope that what I read was accurate enough...

Okay, that's suspicious. You didn't have time to do your own analysis? Then vote who seems the most suspicious to you, but don't vote because other people give good points against them! This may be a perfectly reasonable vote, and you could even be right (although I don't think so) but that reasoning just made me even more sure of my vote.

EDIT: xed with Hakon

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

On a more serious note, the Living number seventeen. There are five baddies (three out of four Wolves, on the basis that one of them is on our side, one Bear and one Cobbler).

He started this this whole thing...

We misunderstood How many wolves because Mira accidently said seven ordos instead of six...

However until SPM said this I simply thought three wolves....

Good point. I assume that the friendly Wolf counts in the Wolves’ numbers for the purposes of determining victory, just as the Cobbler counts for the Innocents. But, he is, of course, playing for us, so it would be somewhat ungracious to kill him, if we can possibly avoid it.

Continues even says keep one wolf alive

After that I had a lot of reading and ended up skimming. That's when I read Nog's post it seemed logical to me. Maybe he could be a wolf tricking me into thinking SPM but I felt it was a sincere post:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Spm

In his first post he playfully argues why all the three first posters are wolves and then adds that Nerwen's "audacious accusation" towards Sally (saying she is too self-conscious in remarking about the first posters) is very suspicious.

In his next post he addresses the Bear; "how good you are, no pressure..." (and a smilie). Followed by a kind of humorous self-revealment for Nerwen's remark ("Lightning never strike in the same place twice, except in horror stories, of course... er ..." (and a smilie).

In his third post he introduces the "Friendly-wolf" -interpretation and talks about "ungraciousness" if we killed him.

In his fourth he turns now to Inzil who had questioned him of getting after Nerwen too readily and says Inzil looks suspicious for making that interpretation (like reduplicating his own suspicion on Nerwen).

In his fifth he says the friendly wolf would not turn against us if he was left the last one.

In his sixth he agrees with Nerwen on not willing to kill the friendly wolf before he has gotten a chance of "leaving trails or helped in other ways".

In his seventh he backed down from the "friendly wolf" interpretation (as it started turning more and more obvious it was not the case - I mean how did you read that from there to begin with???).

In his eighth he is sad because the friendly-wolf -stuff would have confused the wolves. Starts suspecting Roa for jumping on his Friendly-wolf -hypotheses and says it would be bad for a wolf to try that (which might be true, but it would be very good for a cobbler... and even better for one to say just this).

In his ninth he defended himself (very reasonably indeed) and went on the suspicion raised by Brinn against Roa, adding to it his own suspicions (Roa suspecting him & Nerwen from early posts).

So what should I say, other than he looks like a cobbler to me?

All this creating of confusion, all that could be seen as "contact-making" (more of that with Greenie), all the suspicion thrown around like at random (well that could be argued for as a tactics of an innocent as well) and to top it; his defence of himself of saying it would be bad for a wolf to do what he did... heh, so not a wolf, but... a cobbler?
..

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Okay, that's suspicious. You didn't have time to do your own analysis?

You're right, I should put my entire life on hold for WW, sorry but basing a vote on me on my having a life is pretty lousy reasoning itself oh well I suppose if I am lynched I'll have more time on my hands.

*headlaptop* (no desk around)

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

He started this this whole thing...

We misunderstood How many wolves because Mira accidently said seven ordos instead of six...

However until SPM said this I simply thought three wolves....

Continues even says keep one wolf alive

He did not start it, he gave a statistic that he thought was correct. The whole thing snowballed...SPAM's first post would have come to nothing if people hadn't jumped on it. It wasn't that ground breaking.

He says it would be a shame to kill the wolf that's on our side. I see nothing wrong, other than the fact that there is no wolf on our side.

EDIT: xed with Morsul

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

You're right, I should put my entire life on hold for WW, sorry but basing a vote on me on my having a life is pretty lousy reasoning itself oh well I suppose if I am lynched I'll have more time on my hands.

I didn't say that. I said you should have looked at the person you were voting for, not just what other people said about him.

[Morsul the Dark]

Let's keep a wolf alive, sounds like a good idea when the point is to get rid of werewolves? I'm not saying He IS one I'm saying I feel there is enough evidence to place a albeit fairly shallow vote for him.

[satansaloser2005]

++Hakon

The level of shiftiness worries me. That and he should know better than to use meta reasons by now.

Sorry, but I don't have much else than that. Feel free to overrule me if the rest of you innocents wish, but I don't feel up to doing any work right now so this is as good as it gets. Good night, all, and hope to see you all in the Morning!

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I didn't say that. I said you should have looked at the person you were voting for, not just what other people said about him.

Fair enough sorry got a little miffed when I read suspicion based on my lack of time.

"Hands Loslate a Cookie" Downer's Friends? (meaning still WW nemesis

[Inziladun]

Updated:


Greenie--> Nog (1)

Morsul--> SPM (1)

Pitch--> Boro (1)

SPM--> Morsul (1)

Roa--> SPM (2)

Nog--> McCaber (1)

Lottie--> Morsul (2)

Hakon--> Morsul (3)

Sally--> Hakon (1)


Totals- Morsul= 3
SPM= 2
Nog, Boro, McCaber, Hakon= 1

[Morsul the Dark]

WOO 3 votes day one! avoided all suspicion as wolf last game... attracted all suspicion as a non-baddie this game

[Lariren Shadow]

Am sick, haven't slept a lot, and currently despise writing papers.

++Hakon

His reasoning being mostly meta game and then flat out saying that he will not tell us the other half of his reasoning? That just seems way to secretive. Also basically claiming that Mira picked roles instead of it being random? Basically saying she lied? I just can't function these reasons. maybe its the Day 1 thing but at the same time I have this anger over that.

[Brinniel]

Sorry, sorry...I meant to be back earlier, but that didn't happen. Not to mention, I only got two hours of sleep last night and am already crashing...

Some quick thoughts:

-So far Spm doesn't give me any suspicious vibes. Actually, if you want to go back to the whole Friendly Wolf thing, his confusion on the issue seemed most genuine compared to others. Anyway, I'm not going to bother looking back at all that again since the FW thing has become one big headache that I really don't care to sort out right now.

-Does Greenie always vote Nog on Day One? I'm getting the sense of déjà vu here...

-Nogrod's vote for McCaber seemed to come out of nowhere, which makes me a bit wary.

-While Morsul's posts do seem a bit sketchy, I'm rather worried about this bandwagon I see developing. Of the Morsul voters so far, Loslote seems to be the opportunist. She came in right as a discussing bandwagon against Morsul was forming, and was quite eager to add to that suspicion and then vote him.

-Hakon's earlier meta-reasoning doesn't concern me so much as he's made these sort of errors before. But the fact that he states that half his reasoning to vote Morsul is meta after everyone tells him not to is indeed concerning. Now, I don't know if he's an innocent going on the wrong track, or a baddie who is using flimsy reasons to come up with suspicions, but he really does need to start coming up with a new strategy now because meta-reasoning just won't do.