Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I still think Volo is the more likely of the two to be a wolf.

I agree. Durelin is a strong possibility as well, but there's a much stronger case to be made for Volo.

[Nerwen]

As I said before, the case for Volo's innocence seems to consist entirely of saying "no wolf would act that wolfishly". So– what innocent would act that wolfishly?*

Similar is the "If I were a wolf I'd do such and such" argument which has bedevilled this game. Yes, it looks sweetly naive, and much too blatant to be something a wolf would say... but I'm starting to think part of the wolves' strategy has been to count on us all thinking we know what wolves would and wouldn't say.


*Apart from Sally, of course.

[Nerwen]

I have to go out now, so I don't have time to look at Lommy in any detail, but has anyone else noticed how she comes in suspecting me toDay?

Why? She never did before– and she gives no reason toDay.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

As I said before, the case for Volo's innocence seems to consist entirely of saying "no wolf would act that wolfishly". So– what innocent would act that wolfishly?*

That's simple -- an innocent who is Volo. I have seen him act this crazy and more so while innocent.
I intend to have a look at him, but if we lynch Volo simply because he is erratic and tricksy, we're lynching him because he's Volo. At this point, I think there is maybe a 50/50 chance he's a wolf, and I don't feel comfortable voting for him in that case.
But now, to analyze afresh...

[Rikae]

Nogrod -
Day 1
12 -He started off in his first post with nonsense and a rather optimistic, but obvious, assessment of the situation. Hey, I was looking forward to trying a no-gifted game too... I understand that.
28 – Introduces lynch-the-quiets plan. He seems to be talking about general principles to excess. He says THE Ka and Volo give him “bad vibes”, but then relativizes that. He also sets up the possibility that he will vote for a silent person. (Sure, that is something he brings up in every game, but you have to admit, this would be a really convenient setup for a wolf. )
Actually, one thing that has bothered me about Nogrod in this game is that he hasn't gone after me aggressively, as he almost always does. I find it easier to believe that he knew I was innocent all along, than that he suddenly became able to recognize my innocence! I feel a bit as though he's “buddying up” to me (to use a phrase that seems to be popular in this game.)
31 -Makes some points about Menel and Mac. Says he can't read Sally and Boro, and thinks Lommy's innocent but it may be harder to read those you know from RL (indeed..).
His points about Menel and Mac look reasonable to me.
76 -List of everyone's suspicions up to that point.
79 -Continues suspecting Menel. Seconds suspicions of Mac and Gwath. Has a bit too much of a go-with-the-flow feel, compared to the Nogrod I know.
81 – More suspicion of Menel, agrees with Lommy about Mac, considers it possible one or two of Sally-Dury-Gwath are wolves, but then says he'll probably vote for a “submarine”.
83 – Answers Volo's question, turns around and asks Volo why he thought it was important.
96 – Continues to make his case for lynching submarines, in reply to Greenie.
102 – Lists suspects. Top suspects Menel and Mac, “alarm bells ringing a bit louder” for Gwath. Uneasy about Nerwen, Volo, McCaber and THE Ka. Not wishing to bring up Boro, Rikae or Mith. Lommy seems innocent.
105- Vote count.
109 -Says Gwath might be a good candidate, because of his vote and lynching Gwath might shed light on Sally/Dury. Volo is strange. Repeats that he wouldn't like to lynch Mac.
(More buddying up, this time to Mac? I also think it's a bit odd the way he jumped on my Gwath/Sally/Dury thing as though it were a more solid link than it actually was. He seems a bit too quick to agree.)
114 -McCaber surely is a candidate – last minute doubts about Gwath.
124 -Mac's post makes him look more innocent... agreement/disagreement are not the marks of good/evil.
128 -Is it Gwath (too easy) or McCaber (a shot in the dark on a master deciever)?
134- Votes for McCaber.
138 -Look at Volo and McCaber toMorrow; lynching of Gwath possibly too neat.


Overall: Nogrod was definitely going along with others' suspicions more than usual, and there is much less of his typical thinking-in-circles, too. He seems to be buttering me, and later Mac, up (and possibly Lommy, too?), and backpedals on Gwath as soon as it becomes probable Gwath will be lynched.


Day 2
154 -Comments on grotesqueness of narration. Agrees with Lommy on Sally being killed because she left no tracks.
160 -Tally with minutes before the deadline the vote was cast.
163- The Gwath bandwagon a good place for a wolf to hide... far-fetched that many declared they didn't want to see Boro lynched... Volo's vote is fishy because he says he's “widening the vote scope”
166- Agrees with Mac's suspicion of Menel and McCaber. Backpedals a bit on Volo:

“It may be I kind of over-lived with the last minute bandwaggoning yesterDay and got a bit carried away looking Volo's vote as more malignant it actually was.”
172 -Looks at McCaber...could be a submarine-wolf wearing newbie mask.
194 - Looks at Volo. His vote was suspicious, he's creating the impression he's not too enthusiastic about playing, he acted defensive when suspected by Boro. Claims to agree with Lommy's concern that suspicion of McCaber is too unanimous, but then says he's not sure how unanimous it really is, and finds McCaber's assurances he'll post more later, but failure to do so, suspicious.
200 -Looks at people who said we shouldn't lynch Boro. Finds Mith, Lommy and Mac most suspicious with Volo trailing behind. Also finds McCaber suspicious for only looking at people who have already gotten votes.
205 – The Gwathwagon. Everybody who voted Gwath was voting safe. Finds everyone at least mildly suspicious. Now, consider that 4 of the seven (5, from my perspective) are known innocents...and another is Mith, who is either an innocent or playing very dirty. Also consider how scrupulously Nogrod avoided joining said wagon, although he helped it along dramatically with his “willl shed light on Sally/Dury” comment.
216 – Agrees with Lommy urging McCaber to write more.
222 – Tells me he didn't find me extremely suspicious (in his Gwathwagon post). Too friendly...
224 – Vote tally
235 - Nerwen needs to be looked at after Volo's point on her over-carefulness, Rikae a bit touchy but otherwise good and sensible, Durelin – no idea, torn about Mith (remember Rikae last time), Mac feels better all the time but Nog's uneasy about what he's capable of, Menel screams wolf (but more often than not ends up lynched as an innocent), not too easy with Volo but doesn't top his list, ready to lynch “timebomb” McCaber, THE Ka – no idea, Lommy looks innocent, Greenie's low-flying (and something else about her, but he doesn't know what) bothers him.
241 -Vote tally
245 – Could vote for McCaber, Greenie's vote looks bad, could see Menel but afraid it would go wrong, baffled by Volo.
248 – Let's not lynch Mac, he can be very helpful, if he's a wolf we'll catch him talking himself into a corner.
263 – “McCaber or Volo? I have no superior argument either way.”
265 – Votes for McCaber “the timebomb and the submarine”
270 – Thumbs up (to Mac for voting McCaber, I presume)

Overall: Although he makes sensible points now and then, a wolf-Nogrod is certainly skilled enough to do so. The way he seems to continue to try to win Mac's, Lommy's and my trust bothers me. Of course, he may just be weeding out the “submarines”, as he says, while keeping those around he enjoys playing against most... but then again, he might well have been doing the same by night! The generalized focus on the entire Gwathwagon, in retrospect, also looks rather suspect.

Day 3
284 -Wolves must feel comfortable, looking at kills – or creating that impression to move attention away from themselves... nightmare scenario: at least two of the loudmouthed are wolves keeping others of the same reputation alive to avoid drawing attention to themselves.
This would be a bold statement indeed for a wolf-Nogrod – and just the sort of bold statement a wolf-Nogrod would make, scarily enough.
286 – Promises to look at various people.
288 – Still bothered by the people who talked about wanting to “save Boro”. Mith, Lommy, Mac and Volo involved there. Crosses tables of those and the people in the Gwath-wagon.
290 – Analyzes Nerwen. Does not give his conclusions, and Menel then calls it a revealing analysis and adds his own suspicions of Nerwen! Sure, Nogrod shows Nerwen suspecting several known innocents, but since when is that wolfish, really? This raises more questions for me about Menel, actually. (Or could Menel and Nogrod be wolves together?)
296 – Nerwen is careful and suspects/votes people others have suspected. Moves a notch upwards on suspicion-list. Edit: sees latest posts and has to think again.
297 – Asks me why I'm so sure about Mac.
300 -Exhorts everyone to concentrate, agrees with me somewhat on Mac.
330 – Wolves can be right 100% if they wish (in response to Volo calling Dury innocentish), Mac one of his top suspects, inclined to trust Rikae's gut feelings on Mac... calls Lommy innocentish “as she's my daughter and I see her acting just sooo Lommyishly”, Nerwen wolfishly putting Mac alongside Rikae and Lommy, presupposing Mac's guilt and Lommy's and my innocence, still uneasy about Volo and Mith.
Now, it really looks to me as if he's trying the same thing with Lommy that I did to Mac in the last game. It's also interesting that he points out Nerwen might be doing what he could very well be doing himself if a wolf... plus, the fact that he builds an argument on mine and Lommy's innocence and Mac's wolvishness is a bit far-fetched, considering he's not supposed to know anyone's role.
393 – Votes for Macalaure, but not too happy about it, Nerwen's vote for Volo looks weird (assuming Mac is a wolf), Volo looks more weird than wolfish.
396 – If what Mac says is true, look at Rikae and Lommy.

Overall: Continues looking bad. May very well have had the “look at Rikae and Lommy” already planned for this Morning (although it can also be an honest reaction to Mac's innocence.) Doubts about Mac at the last minute (when he's already dead) – that never looks good.

Day 4

409 – We can't afford too many votes that miss their target, must reconsider everything, comments on narration. Hm, it would have been particularly insufferable, knowing he killed Greenie!
414 – Casts suspicion back on Lommy and Rikae over making the kill choices.
425 – Too much comradery between Rikae and Lommy. Criticizes Lommy for trusting Rikae too easily and vice versa, criticizes Lommy's bringing in RL arguments, says he didn't know Greenie wouldn't be around. Wolves might be quiet, lettling loud people kill each other. Lommy and Rikae could be wolves together. Lommy and Volo using presupposed “wolf logic” to cast suspicion in convenient directions. Volo and Menel acting like hasty wolves.
Of course, Lommy and I both agreed in suspecting him. Making us suspect each other instead would be ideal for a wolf. Still, an ordo feeling ganged-up on might react similarly.
426 – Asks Rikae for point behind classifications of reactions to Mac yesterDay.

Conclusions: Nogrod looks about 67% wolfish to me. He's being much friendlier and more agreeable than usual (well, he is Nogrod the agreeable, but still); he seems to have been trying to buddy up to Mac, Lommy and I until today, and not only do the kills fit his eternal “kill the innocents, keep the loudmouths around” crusade (maybe as a wolf, he's finally found the chance to put it into practice), he even suggests this is what the wolves are doing. He first encouraged the Gwath bandwagon, then made a show of opposing it and used it the next day to accuse several people, including four known innocents. On the other hand, his switch from arguing Nerwen's wolfishness based on Mac's to suspecting Lommy and I based on Mac's innocence looks innocentish, although it could be explained as preplanned as well.

EDIT: Wow, I think that was my longest post ever.

[Rikae]

I'm going to bed now, it's after midnight. I only got my paper about 1/3 finished (wonder why ) so I may not have much time to post here tomorrow.
At the very least, I'll give my opinions as things stand at the moment:
Nogrod - See above.
Nerwen - One I really should analyze before I come to any conclusions. She's cast a lot of really strangely-founded suspicions around, at any rate. She seems a bit too determined to lynch Volo.
Menel - He's also made odd accusations. He was quick to jump on Lommy for banter on Day 1, and quick to jump on Nogrod's analysis of Nerwen without apparent reason. If he's a wolf, I expect Nerwen isn't.
Durelin - Actually, in looking over her past posts, I find myself wondering whether I don't partly percieve her as wolfish because of her sarcasm, which is, if I recall rightly, normal. I still find her reaction to Mac's "confession" (as well as her Day 1 words about him "jumping" on Lommy) fishy.
Mith - I'm inclined to think that she's a more honest person than I am, and making the declaration of innocence she did, as a wolf, would be too low and dishonest a tactic even for me. If she does turn out a wolf, I'll never trust her again, but for now I think she's innocent. (By the way, for what it's worth, as God is my witness -- I am an ordo.)
Lommy -- Like I said, I got the feeling she was pushing Nogrod a bit too much toDay, and I didn't like the way she simultaneously told us not to consider it. Still, since Nogrod looks suspicious too... and partly because of his repeated declarations of Lommy's innocence... hm. I think at least one of the two is most likely a wolf, at any rate.
Volo -- Well, he's Volo. As I said, 50/50.

I don't know what to do -- I think everyone but Mith is suspicious, to some degree. Perhaps it would be useful to analyze who is, and is not, likely to be a wolf with who else, but I don't have the time, myself. I hope someone else does.

*sigh*

Does anyone think Nogrod and Menel might be wolves together?

[Rikae]

Just one more quick thing -- I find it a little odd how both Lommy and Nogrod are focusing so much on this "loud wolves" theory, and very, very little attention has been given to Menel, who has been quite strange, or Durelin, except by Mac and I.
It's also slightly creepy the way both Nerwen and Menel both say Durelin and Volo may be wolves together, but Volo is more likely one. Menel actually is following Nerwen here... Volo would be a very good scapegoat for the wolves to misdirect the necessary two innocent votes onto, if he's innocent. This also could be an attempt to shelter Durelin indirectly.
Durelin-Nogrod-Menel, perhaps?

EDIT: Bolding

[Nerwen]

Actually, Rikae, I said yesterDay that I thought Nogrod and Menel might be wolves– though that's partly because it looked to me like they were trying to frame me. And as I said, I don't like the way that even now Menel repeats Nogrod's argument that I've been "suspecting known innocents"– as if everyone hasn't at some point! Please note that, for what it's worth, I am the only person who hasn't voted for one. (Although I would have probably voted for McCaber on Day1.)

On the other hand– Rikae, Volo may look only 50% guilty to you, but from here he looks about 95% guilty; I mean, what would he have to do to convince you of his guilt? You're asking me to take it on faith that he behaves like this when innocent. YesterDay you "knew" Mac was guilty, and a lot of your argument was based on his playing style and your gut feelings. Sorry, but after that I'm not ready to blindly trust your judgement toDay.

And after all, though my feeling is that you're innocent because of your reactions near the DL, I can't be sure. You've certainly done your share of lynching ordos this game.

I am not "determined" to lynch Volo. I just want to get the right person, and I think he's our best bet so far. I don't know whether I'm going to vote for him yet... I need to think.

[Thinlómien]

When discussing my and Nogrod's reactions late yesterDay, please take into account that we were sharing the computer not only with each other but with Greenie also. So that is for example why I did not react to Mac's confession at all - because I did not touch the keyboard after I had voted. Also, Nogrod was not online right the moment when Mac confessed because Greenie was posting then (as you can notice).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Please go back to the last game and look how Rikae's feelings "shone through" making almost half of the village to believe her emotional posts even if we had almost clear Seer-thing on her... So what are you talking here Lommy? This clearly is unnecessary and wrong. Why would an innocent talk such nonsense as we all know after the last game what Rikae is capable of with showing a feeling? If not to try to bring forwards the feel-good factor? And no innocent can't afford that toDay even if to save one's own neck from suspicion.

Sorry, I'm not just as dumbfounded with Rikae's brilliant performance as you obviously were. Granted, I knew Rikae was a wolf when I read her posts that convinced so many, but I didn't find it particularly convincing. Convincing maybe yes, to some extent, but some people certainly over-reacted it. Basically, you can't blame me for "making the same mistake as in last game"for I never made the mistake in first place - possibly because I didn't have the chance, that has to be confessed.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lommy knows perfectly well that I never visited the computer after hearing Greenie's lament about not being able to take part toDay too much (we were eating dinner a few hours before the deadline). So suspecting me of being the one killing Greenie at Night because I heard her schedual is just plain wrong and she knows it. The question then arises why did she wish to make a point of it... To try and lay further suspicion on someone she knows is innocent perhaps? Where she just too happy to continue her well-begun wolfy-attack on me so that she just forgot this particular case was impossible???

I'm inclined to respond as heatedly, but it will be of no use if we two start calling each other liar here. But anyway you're either lying or confused. For the thing I know perfectly well is that I and Greenie left your place about 40 minutes before the deadline and I have no means of knowing what you did after that. If you say you didn't go online, fair, I accept it because it would be quite nasty of you to lie here, but you can't assume I have some magic power with which I can know when you're sending wolf PMs and when you're not.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But another thing that bothers me a bit more generally is the seeming consensus that the wolves are "sporty" and they should be found among people who could fit the description. I mean I could see it as well the other way around where a bunch of less loud wolves would leave the loudmouths alive just to tear each other apart while they would just sit back and relax. It might be though that Lommy and Rikae indeed are the wolves here. It's perfectly possible. But what I don't like is the premature consensus.

Am I the only one who thinks Nogrod is a bit panicky here? It's like "darn, Lommy and Rikae both look too innocent, I can't get them lynched, and I'm the only remaining loudmouth, I have to find a different kind of culpirt". Even though, if Nogrod was innocent and truly believed in mine and Rikae's innocence (which he seems not to do) he could act similarly.

I don't like the tone in which Nogrod accuses me. It's too nasty and dishonest to be innocent. I mean, it looks more like a desperate wolf to me. (Even though, one thing worth noticing is that innocents are more desperate right now than wolves.)

Durelin seems taking the suspicion against her quite heavily. Normally I would see it as a mark of an innocent, but I remember previous durywolves acting just like that. I can't really judge Durelin as truth be told I have not focused a lot of attention on her but right now she feels wolfy. It might be just that I'm picking a vague gut-feeling and the common opinion and making it mine so I don't really like it. I will reread the whole game toDay to be a bit more clear on things.

Originally Posted by Durelin

I also would like to mention to everyone that those of us who are innocent need to not be spread out in our votes. We have all three wolves still alive, and since they only need an innocent lynched toDay to win, there is no reason for them to hesitate to all three vote for the same person. That means we need everyone to talk, too. I'll do my best to be around.

Goodness, I didn't even realise this. Now we have to be extra careful... somehow Durelin saying that looks like she's reminding her fellows of the fact that if they get one innocent voting wrongly, they win. Oh, this is creepy...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I have to go out now, so I don't have time to look at Lommy in any detail, but has anyone else noticed how she comes in suspecting me toDay?
Why? She never did before– and she gives no reason toDay.

We're now on the stage in which one most virtually suspect everyone. I did start the day with suspecting you a little, but after rereading yesterDay's last post, I suspect(ed) you less. Right now your sort of "keeping all doors open" looks like innocently so, so I'm not actually suspecting you that much.

In fact, I'm agreeing with Rikae that a Durelin-Nogrod-Menel trio looks at least possible, if not probable. *expects a vicious nogrodicissit attack after this statement*

I'd like to hear more of Mith's opinions on things, it could provide extra insight to Mith herself (whom I'm not considering very seriously at all) and to the identities of wolves.

Nerwen - I don't know how much you've played with Volo but I have to agree with Rikae once again: that's just his style. It does not make him look particularily innocent or guilty. I'm very baffled about him and I would like to take a closer look at his posts but I doubt I will have time to do it toDay because lynching him will be quite a shot in the dark anyway... I mean, I don't have time to focus on everybody so I'd rather focus on a few suspicious people and see who (if anyone of them) looks really wolvish. If we lynch a wolf today we can take it a bit easier toMorrow and then we can concentrate on enigmas but I do not think today is the time to do that.

Ok, now or very soon I'm off to reread the thread.

I have the bad feeling that the "fact" that Nogrod is a wolf fits everything so beautifully that I'll start seeing everything in that light... which is not nice because that's exactly what happened with Mac. If there would be a means of staying objective regardless of one's own initial suspicion I'd give a lot for it.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nerwen - I don't know how much you've played with Volo but I have to agree with Rikae once again: that's just his style.

Well, that's two people now asking me to take it on faith. And sorry, but I don't think I can trust you and Rikae to that extent. I have thought you two were okay for most of the game, but after the Mac debacle, I doubt whether you can both be innocent.

Also, as I see it half the case against Durelin collapses if Volo is innocent... leaving her looking no worse (or not much worse, anyway) than anyone else and me with no idea whom to vote for. I mean, I can't see that much in that comment you and Rikae are talking about.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'd like to hear more of Mith's opinions on things, it could provide extra insight to Mith herself (whom I'm not considering very seriously at all) and to the identities of wolves.

And Mith herself needs looking at. She was a suspect earlier... and now she's generally considered innocent because, as far as I can work out, she's been quiet for a while– and because she said she was innocent. (Honestly, what is wrong with everyone in this game?)

Not that I suspect her in particular, but I'm not giving anyone a free pass now.

EDIT: fixed bolding.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

On the other hand– Rikae, Volo may look only 50% guilty to you, but from here he looks about 95% guilty; I mean, what would he have to do to convince you of his guilt? You're asking me to take it on faith that he behaves like this when innocent.

You don't have to take it on faith - you can go look at some of his past games. A good example would be the one I modded, WW XXXIII, whre he was the seer and claimed, on Day one, to be immortal. He ended up doublt-lynched with Mac, a wolf. Looking at any of his past games should give you a good idea of how he is, though. I suggest you do so before voting toDay.

[Rikae]

While you're at it, look at some of Mith's games and see if she's the type to blatently lie.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

When discussing my and Nogrod's reactions late yesterDay, please take into account that we were sharing the computer not only with each other but with Greenie also. So that is for example why I did not react to Mac's confession at all - because I did not touch the keyboard after I had voted. Also, Nogrod was not online right the moment when Mac confessed because Greenie was posting then (as you can notice).

Thanks for pointing that out.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Am I the only one who thinks Nogrod is a bit panicky here? It's like "darn, Lommy and Rikae both look too innocent, I can't get them lynched, and I'm the only remaining loudmouth, I have to find a different kind of culpirt". Even though, if Nogrod was innocent and truly believed in mine and Rikae's innocence (which he seems not to do) he could act similarly.

He does look panicky. The probliem with using that as evidence is that Nogrod almost always acts panicky when seriously suspected.

Lommy, you're awfully quick to agree with me on pretty much everything...

[Rikae]

Quadruple posting, again (where is everybody?) -- one thought that's been haunting me is: what if Noggy and Lommy are wolves together? Of course, by going agaisnt each other like this toDay they'd be risking the quick victory, but also making the survivng wolf look quite good. I find it rather odd that they started the day off (Nogrod, actually, in his last post yesterday) suddenly suspecting each other. Also, Nogrod appeared to be buddying up to me on previous days, and Lommy seems to be toDay. It's an excellent strategy for them to keep me around, and, from this point on, we need to lynch a wolf every day. If I'm not killed at night, I can't become a known innocent without this ending the game. I have a feeling the wolves (or at least one of them) is/are trying to win me for an ally while hiding behind me, and I don't much like it.
I'm at least 90% confident that one of them is a wolf. If I can possibly find time, I'll analyze Lommy too, and their interactions.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Lommy, you're awfully quick to agree with me on pretty much everything...

Possibly because I simply happen to think along the same lines in many cases.

If I was buddying you up intentionally, don't you think I would be a bit obvious? Or transparent rather? A bit overdoing it?

I've reread a bit and while I have not managed to arrange my thoughts nor do I have time to do so right now, I must say that if possibly, rereading has made me even more confused. Rikae started to look more guilty, Nog and Dury more innocent... but I have still something against Nogrod (this will be elaborated on) and Dury as well and Rikae would seem less innocent had she not said a couple of things I doubt she'd lie about..

[Rikae]

Oh, why not go for the record... quintuple post.

I would really like to hear Mith's opinions on everyont.

I am not 100% sure of Nerwen's innocence. She has an innocentish feel, but seems to go after people with bad reasoning. Her reactions to Mac yesterday could very well have been faked (I mean, this is Nerwen we're talking about here!)

If we can lynch a wolf toDay and toMorrow, we're headed toward a very desperate, but very exciting, endgame (just to look on the bright side!) I have always wanted to participate in a 3-villager, 1-wolf final day.


If we can't lynch a wolf toDay, we've completely disgraced ourselves as a village and have no business complaining about gifteds again. I'm at the top of the list of those deserving a public flogging, too.

Nogrod, you have mostly been defending yourself and attacking Lommy and I, if I remember correctly. What do you think of Menel, Nerwen, Volo, Durelin and Mith? I would particularly like to know why you've left Menel alone since Day 1, even though he is the submariniest submarine there ever was.

EDIT: X'd with Lommy. Mist! Spoiled my record.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

If I was buddying you up intentionally, don't you think I would be a bit obvious? Or transparent rather? A bit overdoing it?

No more than you already are.

I see you're sticking with the "if I was a wolf" tactic... it has served you well thus far, hasn't it? I never thought it was innocentish, myself, but it's not enough reason to lynch you, either, especially in our dire circumstances.

I'm interested to hear what else you have on Nogrod. He is my top suspect right now (by a slight margin, ahead of... everybody but Mith.) What makes him look more innocent, too? And what makes Durelin look more innocent?

[Nogrod]

This is looking all the more creepier.

Okay answering two things in a way to both Lommy and Rikae: my tone was a bit "frustrated" I'd myself say it was as I first see you two looking like forming an alliance to get me lynched - and thence give the victory to the wolves - and then Lommy goes on making untrue RL arguments to give me one more push.* I was indeed quite disappointed with her - and in a sense am still.

About the "buddying up" thing. As you have yourself noted already I'm against lynching vocal players early in the game unless there seems to be reasons to actually suspect them over others - and I also know that loudly voiced suspicions may end up generating a lynch. Had I seen something that looked as wolfy as Mac's posts in the early Days I would have surely jumped on either of you two (or Boro for that matter).

Also it's funny that as my last reaction to Mac's revealed innocence was that people should look at Lommy and Rikae if I'm not around anymore the next Day begins with those two buddying up to get me lynched...

But this is no time for retaliatory actions. Two miss-votes toDay and we're done for. And it could be anyone... any three. I mean even if Nerwen is one of my top candidates still I must agree with her that Volo being Volo just isn't enough to let him fly under our radars. And I would like to hear something from Mith.

So what then? I'm sadly still having piles of essays to read and can't play much but I will come back later and try to do my best then.


* Just a quote from the roles & rules, the first lines.

Originally Posted by Agan

-Three werewolves. They may PM at Nights and pick a kill, which should be sent to me at least an hour before the deadline - otherwise there will be no kill.

Lommy herself said they had left 40 minutes before... But okay, no more of that from my part.

EDIT: X'd with many Rikae's and one Lommy

[Mithalwen]

Sorry not to have been around before - day from Mandos yesterday. To answer someone's question I am still alive not because I am a wolf (I am not) but because I am, a bit clueless . Why I keep getting asked to play is beyond me. I have been quieter than usual and a bit shifty looking. I suspect that there is at least one wolf who finds me a useful foil and why kill someone at night who you might get lynched? Remember the wolves form a powerful bloc now.

This is our last chance isn't it...... I have a little time now and will be back for the last bit.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And Mith herself needs looking at. She was a suspect earlier... and now she's generally considered innocent because, as far as I can work out, she's been quiet for a while– and because she said she was innocent. (Honestly, what is wrong with everyone in this game?)

Not that I suspect her in particular, but I'm not giving anyone a free pass now.

Fair enough but I am notorious for going loopy under the stress of a special role. I have only been a successful wolf once (Roa, novice and rule assisted) - the first time I was Fenrised and the second I confessed out of boredom..... I have declared both times as a gifted.... I am a heart -on-sleeve type, trying to be otherwise takes a huge effort and tends to result in me cracking up...

Rikae may realise this.. of course she may just know I am an ordo cos she is a wolf .......

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nogrod, you have mostly been defending yourself and attacking Lommy and I, if I remember correctly. What do you think of Menel, Nerwen, Volo, Durelin and Mith? I would particularly like to know why you've left Menel alone since Day 1, even though he is the submariniest submarine there ever was.

You haven't been giving me too many chances to do other things with your pressure on me.

Menel I'm pretty torn with. Boro's point of him being that way everytime took me off his tail back then but I sure need to reconsider him toDay. Volo is in the same category: sometimes I think it's just Volo and sometimes I tend to think he's the real tricksy wolf using a perfect cover (remember he can play that way as a seer so why not as a wolf?).

Mith and Durelin have flown under my radar basically the whole game and I know I'd need to do something about it. I'll try it later toDay

There wasn't a tie between Nerwen and Mac which I thought there were but she's one of my top suspicions still.

So if I had to give my hunch of the moment I'd say Lommy - Nerwen - Volo. They could produce the Nightly kills, there would be at least one Gwathwagoner & Boro-friend, Nerwen and Volo against each other would be nice tactics while both made it so monomaniacally that no one believes it - and Lommy looks like detaching herself from the two.

Okay that's just one scenario but now I really must go back to work.

EDIT: X'd with Mith x2

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

If I'm not killed at night, I can't become a known innocent without this ending the game.

Why not, Rikae? I don't get it.

Originally Posted by Rikae

You don't have to take it on faith - you can go look at some of his past games. A good example would be the one I modded, WW XXXIII, whre he was the seer and claimed, on Day one, to be immortal. He ended up doublt-lynched with Mac, a wolf. Looking at any of his past games should give you a good idea of how he is, though. I suggest you do so before voting toDay.

I've done so.

Oh. My. God.

Volo in WW XXXIII:

My role is called the Reincarnation of Tolkien. And because Tolkien is immortal, I can't be killed. I am on the side of the Innocents. My goal is to lynch the Wolves. If I am to be lynched or killed at Night, my role will be revealed, but I won't die.

I take your point, Rikae. (And thanks for a good laugh .) I still think he's likely a wolf, though, but I'll revise it down to... I don't know... 75%. (Anyway, I'm not about to vote anyone in a hurry.)

Re: Lommy and Nogrod– yesterDay, in my analysis of Lommy's Day 1 posts, I said,

Comments: Well, on Day One Lommy is indecisive, throws suspicion around, and now and then it looks as if she's taking instruction from Nogrod.

but I dismissed it.

I need to re-consider Lommy. Most of the game I've been pretty sure she was innocent and being unfairly targeted... but maybe the fact that she kept saying she thought I was innocent has biased me in her favour? It's easy to do.

On the other hand, Rikae, you must realize I'm not at this stage prepared to trust anyone else either, including you. As I said, I think it's very likely either you or Lommy is a wolf– though if it's you, you did a brilliant job of acting after Mac "confessed".

EDIT: X'd with everyone since Rikae at #254.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

About the "buddying up" thing. As you have yourself noted already I'm against lynching vocal players early in the game unless there seems to be reasons to actually suspect them over others - and I also know that loudly voiced suspicions may end up generating a lynch.

You always advocate leaving loud players alone, but I've never actually seen you act on it so extremely before. I have also never been thought innocent by you for so long.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

* Just a quote from the roles & rules, the first lines.
Lommy herself said they had left 40 minutes before... But okay, no more of that from my part.

I wonder whether you needed to PM at all, though. Perhaps you could just speak to your fellow wolf?

All this is beside the point, though, really. I think the issue is that you might have killed Greenie knowing she wouldn't be around? This actually makes me wonder whether Lommy was giving us her own reasoning behind killing her sister...

At any rate, please give us your opinions on everybody else -- I'm quite anxious to hear them. Also, can you explain why you helped the Gwath wagon, and then denounced it... and why you voted for Mac so halfheartedly, but only after he was already done for?

EDIT: X'd with Nerwen

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why not, Rikae? I don't get it.

Because lynching one innocent will end, and lose, the game.

[Nerwen]

Sorry, brain wasn't working– I didn't realize you mean that. It's late here.

I just realized, my last post X'd with heaps of people.

[Nogrod]

Okay, absolutely the last post for the time being (I'm going to shut the PC down so as not to be able to see any more posts in a while).

Originally Posted by Rikae

At any rate, please give us your opinions on everybody else -- I'm quite anxious to hear them.

What I gave just a few minutes ago in #461 sadly is the best I have now time for...

Also, can you explain why you helped the Gwath wagon, and then denounced it... and why you voted for Mac so halfheartedly, but only after he was already done for?

You could go back and read your summary or rather my posting then - and I explained it once already the next Day after being asked. He was looking suspicious but as the Day draw closer to the end I started to have second thoughts among many others - and as I saw still the huge wagon emerging including half of the village I thought it too fishy as there had to be wolves there and they wouldn't lynch a partner that easily on Day1 so Gwath was more probably innocent than not.

I voted Mac as soon as I got the computer from Greenie and I had seen him confess his wolvery, therefore the "as it actually looks pretty clear now, then...." - if that's what you mean. I don't know if that is halfheartedness but more like a statement of the inevitable (he confessed so let's be done away with it then).

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I voted Mac as soon as I got the computer from Greenie and I had seen him confess his wolvery, therefore the "as it actually looks pretty clear now, then...." - if that's what you mean. I don't know if that is halfheartedness but more like a statement of the inevitable (he confessed so let's be done away with it then).

Originally Posted by Nogrod's vote

But as it actually looks pretty clear now, then...

++ Macalaure

But that done I must say I'm not at all too happy with this whole thing. There were too many easy bandwaggonings toDay and I must agree with Volo that I do not like it. With the unanimous decision the fellows have just slipped in to join.

Okay, I see... I misinterpreted. I thought you hadn't seen his confession yet. It is strange, though, that you take such a pessimistic view of lynching a "known" wolf, at any rate.

[Rikae]

Okay, Nogrod looks a little better, considering the above.

I'm uneasy about the fact that, although she has been talked about as being creepy, no one (but me) is seriously suspecting Durelin. I actually would tend to think, considering the general creepy feelings mentioned about her, the wolves would have taken the opportunity by now to scapegoat her, were she innocent. I also dislike the way that Menel is being completely ignored. To me, his behavior has been more blatently suspicious than Volo's.

So, a summary:

Suspicious:
Menel
Lommy & Nogrod (like I said, I think one is a wolf, probably not both)

Unsure:
Volo
Durelin

Of the two, I think Durelin's more likely a wolf because Menel appears to be protecting her, and there is so much silence around her. No one seems willing to analyze her (I fear I might not have the time, myself). Volo's voting is the one thing about him that really looks particularly suspicious to me.

Innocentish:
Nerwen
Mith

Nerwen has an air of sincerity, though I'd still consider the possibility she's a wolf. Mith I'm basically leaving alone for now, for reasons previously mentioned. Even if she is devious enough to be a wolf after her previous performance, there are two other wolves out there.

I really don't like the fact that so few people are really analyzing - now, when we need it most!

EDIT: Removed redundant "about him"

[Volo]

I'll be at home after about 40min. Just decided to drop into the library after school.

I got the feeling that Nogrod is a Wolf during a long walk in a nice snowy forest yesterday. I came to quite the same conclusions as Rikae (hah, now I'm buddying you up).

Especially Nogrod's last posts look that of a Wolf, now that Rikae mentioned the buddying up, Nogrod posted a post with thoughts that are very far from anybody elses - it looks very unprobable that he could actually convince people to vote the people he "suspects", and that sure is suspicious from Nogrod. While I do agree that it is possible for Lommy and Noggie both be Wolves, I think it more possible that Nogrod is one on his own. At least I don't think that Lommy is a Wolf and Nogrod isn't.
The picture of Lommy being a Wolf and Nogrod not looks far different, deducting from preveous games. Lommy would be far more nervous and Nogrod would attack more aggressivly.

I can't really decide who could be Nogwolf's partners. Dury is still probably my second suspect, about Menel I don't know. However if we manage to survive till Morrow, a lot more will be seen.


Ok, I'm on my way to giving the whole evening to WW.


Xd with everything since #465.

[Rikae]

A look at Menel:
There is so little, I can quote his posts in their entirety.
Day 1
20 -

Originally Posted by Menel

I really do not like the look of Lommy here. She seems to be deliberately provoking Gwathagor and casting suspicion on him for no good reason. Could be nothing, but it still isn't helping anything.

Originally Posted by Menel

I also predict that Boromir88 will do something in the future that appears innocent to everyone except me. I will become suspicious of him, and he'll start attacking me if he hasn't done so already. He'll be innocent during the whole thing, though.

Suspects Lommy for obvious banter, banters with Boro. Could be seen as buddying up to Boro. (This was actually first pointed out by Nogrod.)

23 -

Originally Posted by Menel

More along the lines of "jokingly casting suspicion" than anything else. Check the abuse you gave him in your second post. I can see it was intended as a joke, but wolves have shown a tendency to toss out "silly" suspicions on Day 1.

The “abuse” in question was:

Originally Posted by Lommy

“It is now Day 1. Wolves stop PMing. Start talking.”

Just noticed this: looks like only wolves can talk now. So did we now reveal ourselves, Gwathie?

33 -

Originally Posted by Menel

To be honest, I believe people have their own styles of playing and tend to use them regardless of their roles. I honestly don't think we can find a wolf by playing style here, and I would doubt that Lommy actually plays differently based on her role.

*sigh* And now there's my playing style coming back to bite me. Why must I always focus on a single suspect to the exclusion of all else?

Oh, and Nogrod, my comment about Boro being innocent was made because he usually was innocent whenever I suspected him. I am not certain of his role by any means.

This actually looks sincere and sensible enough, in itself. However, he is basically following Mac here.
43 -

Originally Posted by Menel

Frankly, I am somewhat puzzled as to why Macalaure should make a big deal out of Nogrod's "protect our assets" line. The leap from that line to "Oh, he must be referring to himself as an asset to avoid being lynched" seems pretty weak to me. All I see in Nogrod's line is a simple statement that we can't rely on a ranger to protect us.

This also looks relatively reasonable (I had the same thought about Mac's response to Nogrod at the time.)
[OFF TOPIC – this just jumped out at me. Look at how mildly Nogrod responds to Mac suspicting HIM in post #28:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mac and Boro have already cast some suspcions around and Lommy has pointed out things in others' posting as well. That's what we need to do to both look at the reactions and to gather information about what others think (or what they want us to believe they think).

[/OFF TOPIC]
72 -

Originally Posted by Menel

Originally Posted by Macalaure
I think I made it quite clear that I'm not making a big deal out of it. I only mentioned it because it was the only suspicious thing I saw at all at that point. Should I have said nothing at all instead?

I probably wouldn't have read it as suspicious at all, and I don't see why it was worth discussing.

As for McCaber, I don't know what to make of him. He seems to be a suspicious character regardless of what his role is.

Very mild, very noncommittal.
101 –

Originally Posted by Menel

Let's see here:

Lommy and Mac have been noted as odd, and I'm inclined to suspect Mac more.

Gwathagor... Well, I've read what you've been saying about his defense of Durelin and Sally, and it doesn't seem TOO suspicious at this point, given that Mac really did seem to be more aggressive than Boro. The only odd thing I can see about it is the words he used, and I've seen enough of his style lately to know that he tends to take things personally to a certain extent, enough that this sort of abruptness isn't overly strange for him.

I think I'll be voting for

++Macalaure

for now. It's a bit weak, I know, but none of us really have a whole lot to go on.

Earlyish (46 min before DL) vote, on admittedly weak grounds. Mac is unlikely to be lynched at this point, so a safe vote.

Day 2
179 -

Originally Posted by Menel

Ungh...

I have a lot of work to do, and I doubt I'll be posting much at all toDay.

I'm inclined to suspect Mac and McCaber. The former was suspicious enough yesterDay, and I doubt that the Gwathagor bandwagon was entirely wolf-free. McCaber got a lot of votes near the end, and if he's a Wolf, it would explain why the Gwathwagon needed reinforcement.

I know, I should provide more reasons, etc. but I don't have the time right now. I'm sorry.

*goes back to drowning in homework*

Here, he's following Nogrod's focus on the Gwathwagon and Nogrod's suspicion of McCaber. He's playing it very safe.
189 -

Originally Posted by Menel

OK, I don't have many real leads. I agree with Boro's sentiment that Mithalwen has been posting a lot but saying little. This is suspicious.

Then there's McCaber. Problem with him is that he tends to be suspicious wherever he goes. Yet, I can see what everyone sees in him. His constant suspicion of Gwath with little reason other than "He hasn't formed an opinion" puts me off. Why should anyone have formed a definite opinion that early on?

I doubt I'll be doing much on here later (big day, lots of work), so

++McCaber

Real life obligations I can understand, but Menel is really flying under the radar and riding other people's coattails here. Boro said that this is like him, but I recall a more aggressive Menel from past games.

Day 3
289 -

Originally Posted by Menel

With an innocent McCaber, I think we may have a good idea of where to start looking for Wolves.

I think one may have hid in the Caberwagon on Day 1 while another voted for Gwath, and the third one voted for someone else.

I also think there's a wolf in the latest Caberwagon, the one that lynched him.

As for the possibilities, I see a few:
Volo voted for Gwath and McCaber, not counting his Ka-vote. Staying in bandwagons is hardly ever good. Plus, all his votes were for known innocents, again not a good sign.

Nogrod votes for McCaber both times. Good choice to cover one's tracks, claim that you voted for him before, therefore you must legitimately suspect the latest bandwagonee.

And then there's Mac... Oh, what am I to do with you? Same bandwagons as Volo, and I've suspected him before. Well, I doubt he and Volo are both wolves, as voting the same bandwagons twice in a row would be dangerous.

After appearing to “take lessons from Nogrod”, he suspects him on Day 3. If they are wolves together, I would expect Nogrod to advice him to do just that. His reasoning generally looks odd here, anyway. His point about Nogrod is legitimate, though.

291 -

Originally Posted by Menel

Well, Nogrod, that is indeed a revealing analysis.

Of, course, this praise is brought to you by a wolf trying to suck up to the guy who plans to lynch him*, but still, I can see what that means. Anyone who casts that much suspicion on known innocents is worth looking at.

Also, note the way she "suspects" Mac early on:
Quote:

Yes, but let's not allow that to get twisted into, "well, hey, it doesn't matter who we lynch". I suspect the wolves may try that.

Notice that this is not phrased as a suspicion! It's more of a "Stop behaving like a wolf!" warning. I've known wolves to caution their fellow pack members this way before.

The no-vote on Day 1 is interesting in light of the pattern I mentioned earlier, as it definitely gets her out of the bandwagons.

Also, this would suggest that Nogrod be taken off my suspicious list for suggesting her. However I'm not doing that unless Nerwen is found guilty

Originally Posted by Menel

This is the weird and creepy thing I mentioned in my analysis of Nog. Nogrod hasn't actually given his conclusions yet, but Menel jumps on the analysis to build his own case against Nerwen. It looks too calculated, to me – I could see it as a too-hasty attempt to “stand on the shoulders” of an innocent Nogrod, or perhaps of a wolfish comrade... it could even be the results of a “let's focus on Nerwen” agreement from the previous Night. At any rate, it looks like a blunder by an overeager wolf-Menel to me.
302 -

Originally Posted by Menel

Here we go again. Nerwen is trying to "suspect" Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. Notice how she mentions some "strange edginess" and doesn't explain, but tries to shut down the more valid criticisms of him?

346 -

Originally Posted by Menel

++Macalaure

He's voted in major bandwagons before, I've suspected him when he cast suspicion for little reason on Day 1, and if Rikae has a bad feeling about him, she's probably onto something. (unless she's a wolf)

Worth noting he's again following Nogrod's reasoning (about my gut feelings being valid *wince*). Also, the “I've suspected him when” ... the wording implies he's voting for Macalaure not because he actually suspects him now, but because he's mentioned suspecting him in the past. It's a small thing, but slightly wolf-slip like, as Menel seems to be focusing more on how he can justify his vote than on how suspicious Mac actually is.

Originally Posted by Menel

Gaaaa! Wait, Volo saying it's possible that he himself is a Wolf?

Well, that and his Ka-vote on Day One... He's definitely being quite the oddball this time, and I don't exactly know why.

Are the votes retractable, by any chance?

Originally Posted by Menel

Now, the question is, would a wolf-Menel make this show of surprise and wanting to change his vote? I'm not sure. Certainly it would be a good move for a wolf at this point, but I'm not sure it's one Menel would make.
362 -

Originally Posted by Menel

Yes, Volo, I see what you mean. In the absence of a Seer, every little comment can be jumped on for maximum value due to us having no solid leads.

EDIT: X-posted with Mac

I started thinking Volo looked less suspicious after further reflection too, so I don't see Menel doing so as necessarily suspicious.
387 – (About Volo and Mac being wolves together)

Originally Posted by Menel

I wouldn't exactly count on that. As I've said earlier toDay, both of them are unlikely to be wolves together, since they voted for the exact same people on Day 1 (Gwathagor) and Day 2 (McCaber). Unless this is some complicated form of double-bluffing, I don't thnk the wolves would do something like that.

Could be sincere, could be not. Good job of acting sincere at any rate – showing some concern what happens after the lynch is decided. Volo and Menel are unlikely to be wolves together, I think, based on this – or Menel wouldn't bother to tie Volo's innocence to Mac's (about to be disproven) guilt.

Day 4
402 -

Originally Posted by Menel

Macalaure, how dare ye!

My sentiments exactly.
410 –

Originally Posted by Menel

I would add my two cents' worth with my suspicions:

Nogrod: The way he joins the Caberwagon on Day 1 and on Day 2 looks like clever Wolf-strategy to me. "Look, I'm bandwagoning! But I joined his bandwagon earlier, so I'm legitimately suspicious of him!"

Volo: Bandwagons for Gwath on Day One and bandwagons for McCaber on Day Two. Ka was also a known innocent. Plus, he's just been acting STRANGE lately, as I've mentioned before.

Nerwen: Well, I don't like the way she's suspected so many known innocents, but now that we know she can't have been giving Wolf-Mac hints (since he wasn't a wolf), I'm inclined to back off on that. Her suspicion of many known innocents still bugs me quite a bit, though.

Ok, now he persists in suspecting Nogrod, for reasons he (I think) came up with on his own the other day. This makes him look better in my eyes, and also argues against the idea of him being a wolf with Nogrod slightly. This is not a good time to put pressure on a wolf-buddy Nogrod – however, a wolf-buddy Nogrod is one likely to plan to be sacrificed, too. He is, however, following Lommy and I with this, and thus continuing to go with the flow.
437 -

Originally Posted by Menel

OK, at the moment I'm inclined to trust Rikae on this. Except I don't think Durelin is quite as likely to be a wolf as Volo is. There are just too many things about him that don't add up.

Still, a Durelin-Volo connection could well be what we're facing here. I've gone back and read her posts, and while she tosses a bit of suspicion at him, it tends to be the kind of "he's not acting right, but I'll let it go for now" sort. The same sort that one wolf would use on another that's slipping up.

This is a rather weak argument for the two being connected, and I really get the impression he's simultaneously trying to look trustworthy to me by admitting Durelin is suspicious while arguing against lynching her. If Menel is a wolf, this post is good reason to believe Durelin is one of his companions. Also – I thought at first it was Menel who followed Nerwen in this (because he repeats it later on, agreeing with her), but it's actually Nerwen who repeated it a couple posts later. She did not mark this as a cross-post with Menel, and it makes her look a bit worse to me than before.
441 – (In response to Nerwen)

Originally Posted by Menel

I agree. Durelin is a strong possibility as well, but there's a much stronger case to be made for Volo.

Now, this is worse than Nerwen's repetition. He's repeating himself now, and it really looks like an attempt to win Nerwen's trust. Also, Nogrod has dropped completely out of the picture, again.

Conclusions: He looks fishy enough in his own right, for going with the flow and flying under the radar, as well as making some very weak arguments and appearing over-eager to get bandwagons rolling. In connection with a possible Nogrod-wolf, he looks worse still – one question that has gone unanswered is why Nogrod has largely left Menel alone, when he is as much a submarine as McCaber was. Nogrod suspected him a bit on day one, then backed off without explanation and focused on others – Menel did the same with Nogrod toDay. It's generally fishy that no one has really drawn attention to Menel's behavior, when he's far from innocent looking, and suggests to me that he has some wolf companions working on keeping attention elsewhere.
Actually, I think I might prefer to lynch Menel over Nogrod toDay. As I've said, it seems to me possible that Lommy is framing Nogrod or vice versa, but Menel looks quite wolfish in his own right and either of them could be seen as responsible for directing attention away from him. There is also the fact that, thinking them both wolfish, I expect we can get more evidence out of Nogrod than out of Menel later on (and more entertainment, too... it *is* a game, after all.)
At this point, though, I could vote for either.

EDIT: Fixing spacing and bolding.

[Rikae]

You know what drives me crazy? I've put more effort into this game than anyone - at least, it looks that way to me - and I've been nothing but wrong so far. Quite depressing, as well as embarrassing. If I'm wrong again toDay, I might just hang up my ... keyboard? ... and retire from WW.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay answering two things in a way to both Lommy and Rikae: my tone was a bit "frustrated" I'd myself say it was as I first see you two looking like forming an alliance to get me lynched - and thence give the victory to the wolves - and then Lommy goes on making untrue RL arguments to give me one more push.* I was indeed quite disappointed with her - and in a sense am still.

Now you're being unfair and besides you're getting insulting. You can't assume me to know the wolves' deadlines or ok, you can assume that I have read the rules, but you can't assume that I remember the insignificant parts. It is very ridiculous of you to claim that I'm very aware of what is the wolf kill deadline and then say you might possibly have been sending wolf PMs after that and think that no one will notice. Just because I'm confused I'm not stupid and you should know that I would never make a crap case like that intentionally, even if I was a wolf like you seem to "know". Sorry but I'm becoming slightly frustrated with the overall tone of your posts and the mindlessness of your accusations. And sorry for everyone who has to listen to this kind of ugly speaking from me, but you can be assured I would not speak this bluntly to any other 'downer...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also it's funny that as my last reaction to Mac's revealed innocence was that people should look at Lommy and Rikae if I'm not around anymore the next Day begins with those two buddying up to get me lynched...

Now that is an unfair and false interpretation of the Day as far as I'm concerned and if you're innocent you should be sorry for letting that kind of things out of your mouth, which goes for the previous quote of yours as well.

Mith... please talk about something else than yourself as well... I at least would need your opinions more than your defenses...

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm interested to hear what else you have on Nogrod. He is my top suspect right now (by a slight margin, ahead of... everybody but Mith.) What makes him look more innocent, too? And what makes Durelin look more innocent?

I said I'd elaborate so I don't know what was the point in asking that... Anyway, what things I got from a reread

- I really really doubt Rikae's a wolf because then she's a blatant liar. Before Nogrod jumps on this, I would say that Rikae is a convincing and good and bold liar, but not a blatant liar. It would be very unsporty of her to claim that she'd never campaign for getting an innocent Mac lynched if she was a wolf after she had said Mith would be really unsporty if she'd go to such extents of swearing she's innocent.

- There's interesting interaction between Nogrod and Menel. Menel seconds a lot of Nogrod's causes very easily yet he does not jump on other people's cases on this extent. It looks like he's seeing what his fellow is doing and following suit. Suspiciously so. If Menel is a wolf but Nog's an innocent my kudos belong to Menel for pulling a perfect Greenie (referring now to the game in which se beautifully got innocent morm lynched after dying as an obvious wolf). As to Nogrod's relationship to Menel and his suspicions towards him, it looks precisely like it's a fellow he's ready to sacrifice for looking good. Then, he slowly stops talking about Menel up until now and when he's asked straight, he makes up some wishy-washy could be anything statements. Because of course his "main suspects" can't be his fellows because it is so easy ofr him and his buddies to win toDay.

-

Originally Posted by Volo

I'm quite inclined to vote for Nerwen, but I'll do such a nasty deed as to see if there's any sense to vote for her. Otherwise, my targets are Boro and Ka - Ka slightly more. I'm falling for Boro's frustration, it looks a bit like SPM's in the first game I modded. But I won't vote in a such way that Boro is left alive, in a case that neither [b]Ka[b] nor Nerwen is on the way to be lynched.

The use of the word "target" is just not right...

-

Originally Posted by Durelin

++Macalaure
Of the random voters for Gwathagor he worries me the most. Of course I don't feel good voting for the same person as Boro, but I can't say I trust any of you sneaky lot, so what's the use spending another 40ish minutes on this...

Sounds wolvishly senseless. I mean, what? Besides the "I can't say I trust any of you sneaky lot" just looks a bit feigned...

- My feeling better of Dury and Nog was mostly based on gut-feeling of some of their early-ish posts. I can't really elaborate on it. I could look back and find those posts, yes, but as I was not smart enough to mark down which ones they were I don't have them right now...

That being said, I had a boring lesson and wrote very freely words and short phrases about everyone here, simply what came to my mind and no, I won't post it because no doubt someone would find it offensive (because when I write for myself I'm very straightforward and even careless in how it sounds like because I know what it is supposed to mean) and secondly because posting a censored version would be pointless. Suffice to say that in conclusion, what popped to my mind then is that briefly, on some people:

- Volo manages to be both jumpy, careless, relaxed and secretive at the same time and it is more than a bit weird.

- Durelin is very confident and cheerful. I know those adjectives have often been attributed to myself and I've been dozens of times unjustly accused simply because I have retained my cheerful spirit in tough situations. However, there is something wrong with Durelin's attitude, she's too carefree. She never seems really perplexed and although was at one phase annoyed, has never really lost her nerve in any way, just smiled all along. If you add that she usually comments everything yet really says nothing, nothing very unoriginal at least or nothing that would make people react to her words and that she's been too "right" and playing too conveniently, she looks quite wolvish.

- Nogrod has been quite laid-back and nice until he was suspected (not even so strongly!) toDay, when he started being quite aggressive. (He has used extensive aggressiveness as a means of flushing out wolves in the past, when he was a known innocent, but it would be quite reckless of him to do it in this kind of situation.) Also, when reading through the thread I realised he has been quite reserved for his normal self and giving out less of his thoughts and feelings than usual. I don't find it particularily comforting.

- Nerwen too, is somewhat reserved yet that seems to be her nature. If you combine it with her occasional single-mindedness and long analyses, it makes me feel like she was living in a bubble of her own (heehee, which might be quite true, looking at the timezones ). There is something feigned, or maybe veiled, in her overall attitude but on the other hand she seems quite sincere too.

- Of Menel I mostly managed to spot incriminating or neutral things: quietness, submarineness, bandwagoning, a certain unoriginality of suspicions, quickness to agree and a certain aggressiveness. Although some of this is characteristic to him, I think he looks quite lycantrophiquesque.


edit: xed with Rikae x2

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

That's simple -- an innocent who is Volo. I have seen him act this crazy and more so while innocent.

I agree. Though Volo has been surprisingly calm toDay, now that he seems to have come under some pressure.

Nerwen's really starting to seem like she's putting on a show.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Lommy, you're awfully quick to agree with me on pretty much everything...

Well, everyone's been finding various wolf-to-wolf messages...could this be one? I certainly agree with Rikae...she even echoed Rikae's "translation" of my reminder about what kind of situation this village is in. In Lommy's next post, she gives her now typical defense of this ("if I was a wolf I wouldn't be trying to buddy up to you so obviously") and turns around and says "Actually, Rikae looks more guilty now that I look back."

Lommy slightly turned around from "buddying up" to Rikae, but I don't think Nerwen has ceased to do so this the entire game. Her "suspicion" of Rikae has been little more than a comment here and there seemingly attempting to separate herself from her. A simple "I know I can't trust you."

Menel has been very much going with the flow, but so is Volo toDay. He's been much more calm and apologetic.

I wish Mith had more time. I remember giving a busy Nilp the benefit of the doubt and losing in the end because of it.

I need to look at Nogrod when I get back from class later, but I think the way he's been going after Lommy seems a bit contrived, the whole "straw-clutching" thing. Of course, Lommy bothers me, too.

Most wolfish, in some sort of order:
Rikae
Lommy
Nogrod
Nerwen
Volo

Argh, I wish I could post more, but with classes and the network here being so flippin' terrible it, making it take at least twice as long as it should for me to look through the thread and post, I am having some difficulty.

Edit: Crossed with Rikae x2 and Lommy.

Edit #2: Maybe this Nog vs. Lommy is wolf-on-wolf?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

You know what drives me crazy? I've put more effort into this game than anyone - at least, it looks that way to me - and I've been nothing but wrong so far. Quite depressing, as well as embarrassing. If I'm wrong again toDay, I might just hang up my ... keyboard? ... and retire from WW.

Although I have probably not used as much time to this game as you have, I'm feeling about the same. (And before you or Nogrod start accusing me of agreeing with you or buddying you up or whatever Nogrod should be my witness that I already said this aloud after Mac's role was revealed on Saturday...)

I'm suddenly very frustrated with this game and it's really a pity since I've enjoyed it this far a lot, I mean really a lot, possibly more than some games in ages. Maybe I'm just frustrated at myself and I really should be at least annoyed at myself I'm frustrated by such a minor thing (gasp, she is not saying ww is the most important thing in life!) as being wrong all the time in ww...

edit: xed with Durelin

[Thinlómien]

Somehow that post of Durelin's looks like the Menel+Nogrod+Durelin theory could be very right. Bad news is that when it starts to look obvious it's probably incorrect.

Anyway - Durelin, did you intentionally leave Menel and Mith off your list?

[Volo]

Durelin

I'm not sure that I'll be able to make an objective analysis, but for my own sake, I'll try.
Doesn't include all her posts!

Originally Posted by Durelin

Okay, wait. Who is this 'Little Green Person'??

She must have known something about Lily before asking this. I don't think that Durelin would have otherwise had any motivation to say this. Might point at Nightly discussions - with either Lommy or Noggie.

#82. It might be just my opinion, but Durelin is quite overdoing it. She doesn't really have much to say, but she says it anyway.
The things that do bother me are her attitude to players she doesn't know. A lot of asking what kind of player somebody is (Sally), it works as an easy point that doesn't lead to anything if someone confirms her point wrong or then an excuse to lynch a new player.
I don't believe in slips, but

Originally Posted by Dury, my bolding

So, Sally - if you were a wolf, would you come out and tell us and make sure you got lynched?

#113
Otherwise looks ok, but it strikes me that she's too quick to decide that Gwath is Innocent.

Originally Posted by Dury

Yes, who knows, but putting forth an easy lynch like that will give a good hiding place for wolves, eh?

#133 It might be stupid to blame her, but she votes for McCaber in pretty much the same way as he voted Gwath, and because of that. Wouldn't say that this points at anything.

#176

Originally Posted by Dury, bolding by me

For one thing, as Boro has pointed out himself...we don't know who is innocent, unless we are guilty ourselves.

I might not believe in slips , but this looks suspicious. Otherwise Durelin feels ok, except that she either concentrates on thence already dead players, or by now known Innocents, and quite easy targets.

#213

Originally Posted by Dury

I guess I'm making the assumption that wolves are not overtly careless, and I guess really that could be a tactic as well.

From this post I get the feeling that if Dury is a Wolf, her partner is more likely Lommy and not Nogrod. What do you think?

#279 Well, this looks good on Nerwen if Durelin is a Wolf.
Her talk about Rikae and Mac can be interpreted as setting them on each other. With the example.

#299

Originally Posted by Durelin

I really don't know why you bothered quoting Nerwen's initial in-character banter in your analysis, Nogrod. Straw-clutching a bit? Makes a good bit of it seem almost contrived... But I am glad someone's looking at Nerwen seriously.

Who's clutching on what straws? The last sentence looks quite suspicious.

#388 I've mentioned this before and this is the main reason I suspected Durelin before. Her "'comrade in wolfyness'", "If we're wrong, we're pretty screwed." and "Rather boring confession, Mac." are, hmm, rather creepy. This looks like Durelin was confused by "Mac being a Wolf".
And likewise "Uh oh...Mac, I feel more sorry for you than this village." in her next post. I may be nasty to say this, but she trusted Mac to say the truth this time too quickly.

#433 I'm a sucker for rants and when I first read this, I felt better about Durelin.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Your only *analysis* on me is placing me and Mac together as wolves. So I really don't know what you're referring back to on me.

As for my response to Mac's confession - in the heat of the moment I dared to feel smug, but no, nothing more. Saying something like "YAYz, we got him!" like Greenie or Nerwen...that is so far from...me. I'm sorry, I am not an energetic person. When I was a wolf, and faked a "yay!" after one of my fellows was lynched, everyone leapt on it so fast...and they were right to, because it was so obviously faked.

Her point about the analysis looks quite weak. Somebody already said that her point about the "yay" could be a slip.


Well, what can I say. Several things that could be slips. I'm quite ready to vote for Durelin, or Nogrod.

Oh, I'm tired. Should have slept more last night. :/


EDIT: Xd with everything since my preveous post.

[Durelin]

Yes, I did. Menel feels like a scapegoat, Mith I just have no idea. I hate going with the flow on that one, but I agree with Rikae when she said something along the lines of "there are two other wolves out there".

I am very frustrated with this game, as well. This is my lovely *return* to WW, and it's not only making me feel even dumber than my programming class does, but it's making me late for it. >< I will be back in about an hour...

Edit: Crossed with Volo.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

You know what drives me crazy? I've put more effort into this game than anyone - at least, it looks that way to me - and I've been nothing but wrong so far. Quite depressing, as well as embarrassing. If I'm wrong again toDay, I might just hang up my ... keyboard? ... and retire from WW.

Cheer up. You've very nearly convinced me that it would be better not to vote Volo toDay– and that's taken some doing. I was virtually certain he was a wolf after yesterDay– I still think he's likely one, but maybe you're right and it's too much of a risk. Menel had sort of slipped off my radar yet again... maybe because he stopped attacking me and started agreeing with me.

Besides, it’s not just you. I’ve been hopeless. I had the excuse of not being able to participate much earlier– but that doesn’t apply to the last two Days. In fact this whole game has been a disaster. I just think the whole village has been played for fools (village idiots?) all along.

About that "Volo looks worse than Durelin" argument– no, I didn't cross with Menel, it's actually what I thought. I'm not so sure now.

What do you think about Lommy, now? I keep (appropriately) flip-flopping on her. Read one way, some of her recent posts could be furry... and then I read them again and they seem quite innocent.

EDIT: X'd since Rikae at #471.

[Thinlómien]

Somehow I'm beginning to be amused with this... really, are we all this frustrated? I mean, after I wrote that rant of mine and fetched some disgustingly sweet bubblegum I've been feeling much better. We might be frustrated, but let's not give up, regardless of what we are. It can still end well for either party.

And no, Volo, that was not a slip of any kind. I don't hold a grudge against the wolves (unless they win ) and I just couldn't phrase that in any better way.

edit: xed with Nerwie

[Rikae]

One think I find especially creepy about toDay is that, just when everybody should have a wide focus (and just when it's easy to do so, with only 8 players), people seem to have divided themselves into groups and narrowed their focus, each, to pretty much a single person.
Lommy and Nogrod's behavior toDay I've already talked about... I get the feeling one or both of them are trying to absorb all my attention in their "duel" as well, to the exclusion of all else.
Nerwen and Menel's focus on Volo (and indirect defense of Durelin, while agreeing that she is suspicious) is another case.
Volo's latest post basically agrees with me. The cynic in me says "of course he agrees with you, you've been defending him." Previously, he seemed as fixated on Nerwen as she was on him.

Okaaay - possible connections. If you think I'm wrong, please point it out and why. I don't want to come to any erroneous conclusions. For the sake of completeness, I will include myself. It is not possible I'm a wolf from my perspective, but from yours (four of you, anyway) it is.

I do not think Mith is a wolf. If she is, she is going to get my vote on Day 1 from now on.

Nogrod:
Good chance of being a wolf with:
Menel
Could be a wolf with:
Nerwen
Durelin
Less likely to be a wolf with:
Lommy
Volo
Mith
Unlikely to be a wolf with:
Rikae

Nerwen:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Menel
Durelin
Could be a wolf with:
Lommy
Nogrod
Rikae (or am I likely? I've tended to agree with her. Sorry, can't be objective there - make your own call.)
Unlikely wolf with:
Volo
Mith


Menel:
Likely to be wolf with:
Nogrod
Nerwen
Durelin
Could be a wolf with:
Lommy
Unlikely a wolf with:
Volo
Rikae
Mith


Volo:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Rikae
Could be a wolf (more or less likely) with:
Nogrod
Lommy
Unlikely to be a wolf with:
Menel
Nerwen (especially)
Durelin (Judging by Menel and Nerwen's behavior)
Mith

Lommy:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Nobody in particular (that I've seen so far)
Could be wolf with:
Nogrod
Nerwen
Volo
Rikae
Menel (actually, slightly more so because of his Day 1 defense of her)
Durelin
Mith
Unlikely a wolf with:
Nobody

Durelin:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Nerwen
Menel
Could be a wolf with:
Nogrod
Lommy
Mith
Unlikely to be a wolf with:
Volo (indirectly)
Rikae

Rikae:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Volo
Could be a wolf with:
Lommy
Nerwen
Mith
Unlikely a wolf with:
Durelin
Menel
Nogrod

Mith:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Nobody in particular
Could be a wolf with:
Lommy
Rikae
Durelin
Unlikely to be a wolf with:
Nogrod
Nerwen
Volo
Menel

Okay, as far as I could see, Lommy could be a wolf with pretty much anyone, but doesn't look particularly like a wolf with anyone, makign her a risky choice for toDay's lynch. Volo is more unlikely to be a wolf simply because he doesn't seem to have a possible wolf-pack aside from Lommy or Nogrod and I, and we are unlikely to be wolves together. It could be that his companions have decided to sacrifice him, but would they do so with victory so close? In that case, Nerwen's attack on him looks innocentish because it began yesterday, Menel's less so. Nerwen and Menel may be wolves or Menel and Volo, but I don't think Nerwen and Volo are both.
Menel looks to have the most possible wolf-connections to me, and therefore looks the most likely to be a wolf on this scale.

EDIT: X'd with everything since Lommy's post 472