T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

++Mirandir

I probably won't be back before deadline, so I will do like Salvador Allende. . . say "¡Viva Chile! ¡Viva el pueblo! ¡Vivan los trabajadores!" and take my leave.

I don't suppose it would be worth asking why...

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

No you can't. I can protect myself.

Oooh handy! Are you sure about that though?

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Where does it say that, though?

I asked Kitanna one Night.

Edit: x-posted with Miri(a? which one do you like?)

[Macalaure]

I still wonder whether Rune's interaction with Brinn on Day1 might have been staged and his involvement in the Durelin lynch is suspicious. Then again, so is Lari's and Miri's (and both were more sneaky), and I won't vote for either toDay. What makes me hesitate is that Rune is quite his usual self: a bit grumpy and utterly unafraid to speak his mind.

Beregond looks so innocent to me that it's starting to frighten me. As I said before, if he's a wraith, he's one slick specimen. Even most experienced players couldn't do it like him. I can't help but be wary of him, though.

We still haven't seen much of Nerwen since RL is limiting her. She hasn't done anything to make me suspicious, but hasn't really done anything to make me think she's very innocent either. She would be a bit of a shot in the dark.

Aganzir, nah. She's the only contributor of her level of volume left, and it'd be a shame to lynch her with reasons as vague as mine (even though I think I'm on the right track). Also, seeing the wraiths' appetite for loud villagers (Nog, Rikae, Leggit), she will probably be killed toNight and I'm unwilling to do their dirty work.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I think I will vote for one of the people Legate thought was innocent toDay. Rune, Brego, Nerwen, or Aganzir. But which one?

Ahem. Macalaure, that looks rather as if you're paving the way for a random lynch.

EDIT: X'd with Mac. Okay, you're not, then.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Ahem. Macalaure, that looks rather as if you're paving the way for a random lynch.

Nah. I will give Legate's suspects the benefit of the doubt toDay and won't vote for Miri or Menel (well, and Lari). Unfortunately, even with the narrowed field, I'm very unsure. I can't see anyone of the living as clearly wraith-ish, even though even two of them are left. I'm a bit dissatisfied with myself in this village, I can tell you.

[Macalaure]

Not confident about this vote, but out of my list of four, she just seems the least innocent.

++Nerwen

I might be around later to rethink and retract.

[Nerwen]

Thoughts:

Lari– well, we won't know what to think if she's alive toMorrow... but we still can't risk lynching her now.

Aganzir: Built up a case on Legate, so unlikely to have killed him last Night; probably wouldn't go after Mac so hard if she were a wraith, in case he really is Ferny.

Rune: One of the Durelin-voters (and look, it's very unlikely none of them were wraiths). Today seems a little too quick to dismiss Lari's claim.

Mira: Another Durelin-voter. Has seemed vaguely sneaky on and off... could be just a nervous newbie, though.

Menel: In the opposite direction, seemed rather too quick to announce that he knew Lari's identity all along, etc (however he did make that "Sagittarius" comment ages ago). Was also too quick to believe Brinn, and made that odd "on our side" remark. (Ferny trying to signal to the wraiths?)

Mac: Another cobbler-candidate. Whether he is Ferny or not, the wraiths may think he is, which would explain why he's still alive.

In fact, it would really help to know if the wraiths and Ferny are aware of each other's identities or not. I have reason to think Ferny isn't, or wasn't a couple of Days ago (explanation next post).

Finally, there Beregond, whom I keep forgetting about. Seems very innocent ... as Mac says, almost scarily so... but if he's a newbie villain, all I can say is he's doing a fine job and probably deserves to win.

EDIT: X'd with Mac. Hey!

[Nerwen]

Unfortunately, I can't find the quote I was looking for: but somewhere during Sally's closing variety act she said something about Ferny's suggestions being funny... trying to tell him some of them were wraiths, perhaps?

[Nerwen]

Am I just taking it personally, or does Mac's vote for me look kind of evil?

[Nerwen]

I thought, in his last post but two, he was saying he wasn't going to vote people just because Legate found them innocent.

I'm wondering: is he Ferny, and is he afraid to vote anyone who looks remotely wolfish?

[Meneltarmacil]

OK, though I have nothing solid to go on, I'm definitely getting a "not good" feeling from Nerwen at this point, probably due to her being overly suspicious of the recently-revealed Ranger and my recognition of her messages (anything about my post yesterday that doesn't fit with my statement today?)

I don't know...

More stuff: Reviewing Day One, I find that Rune actually voted for Brinniel that day, not Durelin. Oops

Speaking of Day 1, let's see what the voting reveals, now that we know more about who's who.

Rune's vote does not look like something a wraith would do, as it put Brinn in a tie with Gollum for a lynching.

Agan's vote reveals little, as it was really early in the game.

Mirandir voted for Thinlomien, bringing the total lynchees to three. I don't think this is the vote of a wraith, as one of them would be more likely to vote Gollum into the lead ahead of Brinn.

Beregond tosses in a bizarre vote for Mac, bringing the total lynchees to four and still fails to save Brinn.

At this point Nerwen steps in and votes Gollum squarely into the lead. Mac the possible cobbler and Brinn the wraith follow her lead, putting Gollum far into the lead.

The most wraithlike individual appears to be Nerwen, who cast a deciding vote for saving Brinn, with Aganzir second as her vote left no tracks one way or another.

Well, that will be it for now. Based on the voting:

--Rune Son of Bjarne

++Nerwen

See you in the morning, I hope.

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Menel: In the opposite direction, seemed rather too quick to announce that he knew Lari's identity all along, etc (however he did make that "Sagittarius" comment ages ago). Was also too quick to believe Brinn, and made that odd "on our side" remark. (Ferny trying to signal to the wraiths?)

His post about it was yesterDay, not ages ago. I don't know, but he only said he figured it out yesterDay.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

His post about it was yesterDay, not ages ago. I don't know, but he only said he figured it out yesterDay.

That's what comes of having to read through several Day's posts in a hurry. I had the impression he'd said it earlier... but if it's only yesterDay it doesn't mean so much.

[Lariren Shadow]

Post...anyone?

Vote count:
Menel -> Rune
Rune -> Mira
Mac -> Nerwen
Menel -> --Rune ++Nerwen

Nerwen 2, Mira 1

Edit: x-posted with Nerwen

Edit2: Fixed vote count

[Nerwen]

Actually, Menel's previous vote was for Mira.

So it's Mira 1, me 2. I will vote Mira to save myself if need be, but I'd prefer not to, as there just doesn't seem to be enough of a case against her.

As for what Menel is saying about me: well, I don't tend to automatically trust gifted reveals, and yours, Lari, came at an odd time. And I voted Gollum on Day One because Lommy seemed innocent, and Gollum looked the most suspicious of the other candidates. That's all.

EDIT: X'd with Lari.

[Beregond]

Thank you, Mac and Nerwen - I wish I was a wraith and able to receive your entire compliments! As it is I'll just be happy to remain so seemingly innocent.

And great analysis, Menel. That's some good stuff, looking back on day 1. Here's the complete "chronology"

Greenie -> Gollum
Lommy -> Aganzir
Gollum -> Brinn
Aganzir -> Lari
Legate -> Mac
Shasta -> Lommy
Nog -> Gollum
Menel -> Mac
Rune -> Brinn
Fea -> Brinn
Mirandir -> Lommy
Beregond -> Mac
Durelin -> Lommy
Sally -> Mac
Lari -> Durelin
Rikae -> Lommy
Nerwen -> Gollum
Mac -> Gollum
Brinn -> Gollum
Rikae --Lommy -> Gollum


It makes Rune look pretty innocent (unless as cobbler). Mac can be accused simply of saving himself. Miri isn't excused for not voting Gollum - it was her first day and first vote. Menel, your vote can't be read either way since at that point no wraith was in danger. Agan is unreadable. Lari too.

Nerwen...yes, this doesn't look great for her. In a day with few people and no clear suspects it may be enough evidence to go on.

To rehash, from looking at day 1...

INNOCENT:

Rune
Berry


NO READ:

Miri
Mac
Menel
Agan
Lari


SUSPICIOUS:

Nerwen


We have to keep in mind that Frodo wasn't yet stabbed, and Ferny likely as in the dark as anyone. So my conclusion is that Nerwen is most likely to be a wraith. Miri, Mac, and Rune are frontrunners for the positions of henchman and turncloak. None of the others are completely off my list by any means, even Agan.

For the record I tend to believe Lari's claim. Either way she shouldn't be voted off the island.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Menel

Lynching a wraith-to-be if xe were revealed is a bad idea, Agan? It may be a bit harsh, but that would at least keep the number of wraiths from increasing.

Yes. A really bad idea. Firstly, if Frodo had revealed, it doesn't seem very likely the wolves would have attacked xem. Secondly, if they for some reason had, we would have known who Frodo was and could have lynched xem only then. Up until that xe would have served as a known innocent. I fail to see why xe should have been lynched before xe was turned.

Originally Posted by Menel

the strange need to refute everything Mac says seems unusual as well.

You can consider it a tradition.

Originally Posted by Menel

Ah, I see that Lari has confirmed what I suspected about her from yesterDay.

Hmph and I thought it was a cobblerish remark.

Originally Posted by Menel

Answer to Aganzir: I just ment it is easier when you can find a pattern in the voting. . .if it appears random you can use it to very little.

That's what I thought but I don't think wolves vote in any special pattern very often so I wasn't sure I had understood it correctly.

Originally Posted by Mac

What? If she's not the real ranger and the real ranger reveals himself, he'll be dead. If he stays hidden he can still make a save and buy us an additional Day! Then we would lynch Lari and probably find her to be the cobbler and nothing is won.

Okay that's true. Although I don't see how you ended up with the cobbler conclusion - a suspected wolf could try to pretend to be the ranger as well. And it wouldn't matter even if we lynched the cobbler because we have to get one baddie today, or at latest tomorrow, but then it'll be somewhat more difficult.

I am a bit baffled about Mac wanting to vote one of the people I consider innocent.

I wonder if a Menelwolf would have left Lari alive after figuring what she meant with the Sagittarius comment. Unless he was a wolf who thought it was a cobblerish remark or vice versa, but the former seems unlikely to me.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

but if he's a newbie villain, all I can say is he's doing a fine job and probably deserves to win.

I said the same about Lari last game so being a newbie doesn't mean getting a free pass from me anymore.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

but somewhere during Sally's closing variety act she said something about Ferny's suggestions being funny... trying to tell him some of them were wraiths, perhaps?

It's clear from your suggestions for night kills
The lights are not all on upstairs
But we're talking lyches and victory
Your options are far beyond compare

Originally Posted by Nerwen

does Mac's vote for me look kind of evil?

Yes. I'd much rather lynch Mac himself than Nerwen who is one of the most innocent-looking here.

I don't like Menel's analysis. Using day 1 as a grounds for one's vote seems a bit far-fetched at this point of the game. First Mac votes for an innocentish person and then Menel comes up with several points against her concerning her day one behaviour. I don't think Nerwen's vote was suspicious, and it's definitely not her fault if a wolf and the cobbler decide to jump on the bandwagon.

I could vote for Menel, Mira, or Mac.

I'll go make some tea. Back in a few minutes.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Beregond

In a day with few people and no clear suspects it may be enough evidence to go on.

No it isn't! It most definitely isn't! It's just an easy way out.

[Beregond]

Well, maybe I was a little quick on the gun, but I wish I could find something better to go on. I haven't voted yet.

[Nerwen]

This is just what I was afraid of...

Originally Posted by Beregond

Well, maybe I was a little quick on the gun, but I wish I could find something better to go on. I haven't voted yet.

After Mac and Menel's recent performance, I should say there's quite a good case for voting either of them.

[Aganzir]

Well analysing day 1 voting on a day we have to get either a wolf or the cobbler seems rather mischievous to me. If you formed your opinion based on voting every day, it'd be alright, but picking just one day, not to mention the first, and using it to justify a vote for someone I think is a very likely innocent...

I think I'd be willing to vote for Menel.

edit: xed with Nerwen. Yeah I could go for Mac as well.

[Aganzir]

Is there anyone else around but Nerwen, Berry & me?

[Beregond]

Okay, this might be the worst flip-flop of all time, but

++Menel

You've changed my mind. I thought back to the post I was going to write before Menel posted, and it had Menel and Mac among the suspects and Nerwen and Agan on the good side, but I changed my mind quite easily (and have again). Whatever, I don't care. We'd just better be right this time.

[Nerwen]

Apparently not even Berry, now.

Would you be willing to vote for Mira? I don't feel nearly as sure she's evil, though...

EDIT: X'd with Beregond.

[Mirandir]

Oh my. I haven't been around today have I? Crap. The next 20 minutes will be spent attempting to come up with a justifiable vote.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Would you be willing to vote for Mira? I don't feel nearly as sure she's evil, though...

I'd rather vote for Menel. He's been looking much more suspicious than Mira, but also more innocent. I'm just trying to sort out my thoughts concerning them.

Another option would be Mac but he doesn't have any votes yet so I don't know.

[Nerwen]

We're running out of time

++Menel

[Aganzir]

Of the people alive, Menel looks the most suspicious, but he has done some pretty innocentish-looking things as well (like believing Brinn at first, which would be a bold thing to do for a wolf). Anyway, he's suspecting 2/3 of those I find innocent, and his examination of day 1 voting looks deliberately irrelevant/misleading.

Mira has been suspicious, too, but I don't know how much of it is just that she's new. The late kill choices look somewhat newbie-ish, though, and she's more suspicious than Berry. Gah I'll take a look also at him tomorrow.

Mac's vote was simply bad. Many people thought Legate was killed by someone whom he suspected, what does Mac do? Decides to go and vote for someone he found innocent. The cobbler who's afraid of accidentally voting for a wolf, eh?

[Aganzir]

++Menel

I really hope we got it right, otherwise this is going to look dark.

Rune -> Mira
Mac -> Nerwen
Menel -> --Rune ++Nerwen
Berry -> Menel
Nerwen -> Menel
Agan -> Menel

Menel 3, Nerwen 2, Mira 1

[Beregond]

Looks like Lari and Mira are the contestants on tonight's Beat The Clock.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Mira has been suspicious, too, but I don't know how much of it is just that she's new. The late kill choices look somewhat newbie-ish, though, and she's more suspicious than Berry. Gah I'll take a look also at him tomorrow.

Well the late kill choices could be explained by me being a newbie, but also because I like to wait and see what everyone has to say before I make a decision. Sometimes new information comes to light nearer to deadline (such as reveals) and I'd rather have that information before voting, even with the option to retract.

As for the vote. I had a decent reason for voting Berry as a wolf/cobbler and a suspicion as to who his fellow wolf/cobbler was aaaaaaaand then something shiny flew by and I completely lost it. But at this point it doesn't appear that voting for him would do anything and would be a throwaway so I'll bandwagon and go with Menel. Sigh.

++Menel

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Mirandir

Well the late kill choices could be explained by me being a newbie, but also because I like to wait and see what everyone has to say before I make a decision. Sometimes new information comes to light nearer to deadline (such as reveals) and I'd rather have that information before voting, even with the option to retract.

No I was talking about the wolf kills.

[Lariren Shadow]

Well I guess I'll vote the same way:

++Menel

Mostly because I need to vote right now.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

No I was talking about the wolf kills.

My bad. I'm rather tired and out of it and supposed to be working.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Mirandir

My bad. I'm rather tired and out of it and supposed to be working.

No problem, it just took me a few seconds to realise what you were talking about.

[Beregond]

Would love to hear your evidence against me tomorrow, Mira!

Kitanna, just wanted to point out your punctuality, coming in at exactly the deadline every or almost every day. It's nice for us knowing the cutoff is regular (maybe it always is, I don't know).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Mirandir

As for the vote. I had a decent reason for voting Berry as a wolf/cobbler and a suspicion as to who his fellow wolf/cobbler was aaaaaaaand then something shiny flew by and I completely lost it.

Hang on! Why do you say this now?

[Kitanna]

Time, Menel's death will be soon.

[Kitanna]

Menel was drunk again. As usual. The village was surprised. But they were now coming to believe Menel's drunken fool act was nothing but a clever disguise. It was obvious this drunk was a wraith and they were prepared to test the theory.

Agan and Rune tackled Menel while Mirandir got a chair, Beregond got some rope, Mac got a funnel, and Nerwen and Lariren got four jugs of wine.

The villagers tied Menel to the chair, while he squirmed against the ropes bonds. “I'm innocent! I swear!”

Rune held Menel's head still while Mac put the funnel in his mouth. The villagers then began the process of forcing the town drunk into drinking the wine. Menel sputtered some out, rivers flowed from the corners of his mouth, but for the most part the wine was getting into his system. As a career drunk Menel's body was conditioned to taking lots of alcohol in in a 24 hour period. However, his body wasn't accustomed to so much, so quickly.

In a serious act of rebellion Menel's liver exploded. His death followed seconds later, blood dripping from his mouth and nose, mixing with the red wine. Menel had died with the bottle, the same way he had lived. And he was completely innocent of all crimes except drunken shenanigans.

Living
Lariren Shadow
Mirandir
Aganzir
Beregond
Nerwen
Rune Son of Bjarne
Macalaure

Dead
Kitanna – Made an example of Night 1 (moddess)
Gollum the Great – Eaten by hogs Day 1 (innocent)
Shastanis Althreduin – Forced to swallow a sword Night 2 (innocent)
Durelin – Hanged on Day 2 (innocent)
Nogrod – Disemboweled and hanged by own intestines Night 3 (innocent)
Feanor of the Peredhil – Hoed to death Day 3 (innocent)
Brinniel – Set on fire and turned into Mrs. Lovett Day 4 (wraith)
Thinlómien – Brain forcibly removed and made into a treat Night 5 (Butterbur)
satansaloser2005 – Brained by Rune Day 5 (wraith)
Rikae – Skinned alive Night 6 (innocent)
A Little Green – Slipped on a banana peel Day 6 (innocent)
Legate of Amon Lanc – Eaten by a bear Night 7 (innocent)
Meneltarmacil – Impossible liver explosion Day 7 (innocent)

[Kitanna]

The next morning the villagers awoke to find Beregond missing from the morning meeting. The few villagers that remained walked along to Beregond's home. They hoped he was just sleeping in, but by this point everyone knew better.

Outside Beregond's home the wraiths had displayed the smith's head on a nice long spike. Someone they had even managed to make his death face smile. Beregond looked happy, despite the complete lack of body.

The villagers continued on to see what had become of the body. They found it propped up in front of the fireplace in what looked to be a nice cozy chair. A string was tied to Beregond's wrist and when the villagers opened or closed the front door the arm waved to them. With a smile and a friendly face Beregond moved on to the next life.

It was almost endearing, except for the blood everywhere.

Living
Lariren Shadow
Mirandir
Aganzir
Nerwen
Rune Son of Bjarne
Macalaure

Dead
Kitanna – Made an example of Night 1 (moddess)
Gollum the Great – Eaten by hogs Day 1 (innocent)
Shastanis Althreduin – Forced to swallow a sword Night 2 (innocent)
Durelin – Hanged on Day 2 (innocent)
Nogrod – Disemboweled and hanged by own intestines Night 3 (innocent)
Feanor of the Peredhil – Hoed to death Day 3 (innocent)
Brinniel – Set on fire and turned into Mrs. Lovett Day 4 (wraith)
Thinlómien – Brain forcibly removed and made into a treat Night 5 (Butterbur)
satansaloser2005 – Brained by Rune Day 5 (wraith)
Rikae – Skinned alive Night 6 (innocent)
A Little Green – Slipped on a banana peel Day 6 (innocent)
Legate of Amon Lanc – Eaten by a bear Night 7 (innocent)
Meneltarmacil – Impossible liver explosion Day 7 (innocent)
Beregond – Beheaded and put on display Night 8 (innocent)