Werewolf VI (the saga continues in a rather continuous way)

[the guy who be short]

LMP, my good, er, man... please address these parts of your plan:

1) We can't look at voting records to deduce wolves.
2) We eliminate that small chance of getting a wolf.
3) Gifted Villies will die anyway. At night, it is almost certain. At Day, well, we'd run out eventually.

[Holbytlass]

Firefoot, that's perfectly true, however, the importance of the ordinary villager is to cover the gifted by sheer numbers. We just don't have enough in this village. Sure we could just lynch ordinary innocents for the first two days (definitely better than the gifted) but that doesn't leave much cover for the gifted and the seer has a good enough chance of being killed the third night or maybe one night more due to the wolves figuring out who is who.
Unless, the seer wants to proclaim themselves on the third night, the ranger protect them that night and we would have 3 dreams and 2 lynches prooving peoples innocence thus narrowing down who the wolves are (assuming the seer didn't dream of a wolf). I realize this has as many holes as swiss cheese, the ranger might have happened to guard the seer the night before and therefore couldn't do it again, or the people the seer dreamt about might be the ones we've already lynched. Anyway, those are my thoughts.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

What's a fop? If you're commenting on my rather superb attire then I must say Guilty as charged. If the werewolves have any class then they'll leave such a prim and proper gentleman such as myself well alone.

*sniff*

*adjusts hat*

Firefoot, we can lynch a wolf. Let's stop all this talk of killing our own.

tgwbs, interesting habit you have there. Goose is quite superb when you can get it.

I'll speak to you all later.

[Firefoot]

Firefoot, we can lynch a wolf. Let's stop all this talk of killing our own.

Oh, I know. I am totally against deliberately killing an innocent.

I didn't realize that what Holbytlass was doing was arguing against the deliberate killing of innocents. I couldn't figure out what she was trying to say. Now that I realize that, I agree with your thoughts, Holby.

See, I'm dense like that. If you don't put quotes up for what you're responding to, like as not I'll read it as a stand alone theory. That's twice in one day now that I've done that. Oh dear. I promise, I'll read more carefully from now on.

I think our best bet for today is for everyone to vote for who they think is guilty. That way, everyone won't be voting for the same person, and that voting will leave evidence that we can make some sense out of.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I think our best bet for today is for everyone to vote for who they think is guilty. That way, everyone won't be voting for the same person, and that voting will leave evidence that we can make some sense out of.

While I agree with the plan due to the latter point, remember that the wolves have the ability to influence the vote. I'm betting on an innocent death toDay.

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm looking forward to tomorrow morning when I should be able to name and shame at least two werewolves. And you should all trust me,

Does anyone else find this odd? It does intrigue me to hear what he has to say, but isn't this a bit forward in saying he is the seer? A seer has dreams, not advance knowledge of who they are going to dream about.
Either Eomer is trying to lure the wolves after him tonight and not a gifted villager, a noble thing to do or he is trying to get the ranger to protect him so that while the ranger is busy protecting him, he and his wily pack can kill off any one they choose.

[Firefoot]

OR Eomer is one of the Shirriffs, and our Shirriffs have agreed that it is in the best interest of the village for us to know who they are, telling us of two known innocents. Then the wolves would have a choice: kill a known innocent who we will not be lynching, leaving alone the Seer and Ranger, or make an attempt to kill the Seer or Ranger, leaving us with two known innocents who we won't lynch.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Holby

Does anyone else find this odd? It does intrigue me to hear what he has to say, but isn't this a bit forward in saying he is the seer?

I'm not so sure he's saying he's the Seer. I think he's using his conker for a bit of deduction. Though you can't really tell.

[Holbytlass]

It's my turn to try and figure out what you, Firefoot, are trying to say. I'm dense like that, too. For the life of me, I can't see where you got him trying to be a shirriff but I do get the shirrif plan though.
Well, Eomer's conker is usually pretty good though, but he's being rather weird about it.

[Kath]

Don't you just hate people who confuse you? Eomer and LMP have left me completely clueless as to what they are and why they are saying some things and just confusing me in general really! Eomer especially has me in the dark with his statement about knowing who two of the wolves are. I looked at both Firefoot and Holby's ideas about why he would do this and still have no clear idea on an answer - any chance of you clearing this up Eomer?

All this confusion is also giving me problems with forming any feelings one way or the other with people. I have absolutely no idea who is a wolf and who not. I understand the logic (and maths ) that say we have an unfortunately high chance of lynching a gifted villager and then having another killed at night. Therein lies the major problem as if a gifted villager revealed themselves during the day they are pretty much guaranteed to be killed by the wolves at night. Even with ranger protection they would only be safe for one night so it's too dangerous to reveal themselves. Of course they can post what they know (in the case of the Seer) but not outright so unless there is some major hint within the post we will not know that they are the Seer, and that can't really happen because the wolves are equally capable of picking up on this hint.

So really we can only hope that the mythomaniac chooses to be the Seer. If this occurred then though we would still have more gifted villagers we could then hope that both dreamt of wolves. If they said so outright we could lynch them over two days with the ranger having a one in two chance of protecting the Seer the wolves chose to go after on the first night.

Well that is the sum of my rambling thoughts. If anyone actually made sense out of them do let me know!

[Orominuialwen]

Eomer, what is going on? You're behaving in a most bizzare fashion. I have a gut feeling that says you're innocent, but innocents who behave suspiciously tend to get themselves lynched. I think we all could do with some sort of explanation.

[mormegil]

No posts from

Gil-Galad the thunder mistress (don't think I'll ever stop that one)
Lhuna
Nilp

I understand why Nilp and Lhuna haven't yet but Gil's a bit of a mystery so far. I understand we have a lot of time left, but I reassert that I want at least one substantial post from each. Incidentally that would include Saurreg. Again I understand why he hasn't posted but just wanted to say it again.

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Gil-Galad the thunder mistress (don't think I'll ever stop that one)

Gil's going to kill me!! And Saurreg is a girl.

I have an idea who might be the shirrifs but since they're not saying anything maybe I shouldn't.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

LMP, my good, er, man... please address these parts of your plan:

1) We can't look at voting records to deduce wolves.
2) We eliminate that small chance of getting a wolf.
3) Gifted Villies will die anyway. At night, it is almost certain. At Day, well, we'd run out eventually.

bad sectors on computer. NO persona. must post fast. 1 no matter. 2 is negligible. 3 is held at bay by lynching innocents for at least first 2 days. Hope this takes. May not be able to post until tomorrow morning ealry. GRRRRR!

[mormegil]

I guess before we continue pushing forward the plan to kill innocent volunteers I would like to know besides LMP is there anybody out there that is somewhat in favor of it? If it comes down to many people supporting the plan I wil consider supporting it too.

[Holbytlass]

Im not really for it. The opinions who matter most on this plan would be the 3 ordinary villagers. And would we believe them to be the ordinary villagers?

[Firefoot]

For the life of me, I can't see where you got him trying to be a shirriff but I do get the shirrif plan though.

I'm just trying to figure out why he might be acting as he is; there is no evidence to suggest that he is a Shirriff, except that it wouldn't make a lot of sense for him to be acting like this if he was the Seer because he'd be getting himself very likely mauled by wolves and us not knowing the identity of a wolf. (I'm not sure that made sense.) And a Shirriff is the only other innocent who could know the innocence of another person without a doubt.

Like Kath, I am having difficulty figuring out lmp. I can't tell if he's an innocent just kind of blundering around or a wolf pulling off an act.

I'm inclined to think that Morm and TGWBS are innocent loudmouths. No certainties there, though.

I'm also leaning towards Holbytlass' and Kath's innocence; I'm unsure about everyone else.

[Saurreg]

Originally Posted by mormegil

but I reassert that I want at least one substantial post from each. Incidentally that would include Saurreg. Again I understand why he hasn't posted but just wanted to say it again.

If you've read all the pre-game sign ups then you'll know that I'm 12 hrs ahead of you guys and that my first post was submitted at night right before bed. May I also refer you to the Fall of the North RPG where I had made a long post immediately after I posted here? That effort together with the need to sleep justified the brevity of my initial statement last night (local time).

In any case I am happy you are taking the analytical stance. Work beckons now, I will post my observations in a few hours time.

[Saurreg]

Eomer
Voted for:
Posting Behaviour: First to post. Offers nothing substantial. Claims to know two innocents. Could be a talented character (but how can he account for two - sheriff?) or a sly lycan throwing in his gambit.

Firefoot
Voted for:
Posting Behaviour: Logical rejoinder and counter-suggestion to TGWBS's aborted plan. Thinks Eomer might be a sheriff. Questions Mormegil's suspicions. Not much to work with.

Gil-Galad
Voted for:
Posting Behaviour: Single short non-substantial post. Does not answer to Mormegil's punt. Interesting...

Holbytlass
Voted for:
Posting Behaviour: Read to much into the mod's 1st post. Offers nothing substantial,sShe agrees immediate to TGWBS' plan without batting an eyelid, when everybody has yet to endorse. Worth taking a closer look.

Kath
Voted for:
Posting Behaviour: Angst induced rambling (apparant). Nothing to work with. A lycan testing the waters?

littlemanpoet
Voted for:
Posting Behaviour: Wants volunteer lynching of three innocents. Wants Seer to remain highly inconspicous (read - ineffective). Very bizzare. To be observed closely. Highest suspect yet.

Lhuna
Voted for:
Posting Behaviour: No posts. Nothing to work on.

Nilpaurion Felagund
Voted for:
Posting Behaviour: No posts. Nothing to woek on. Strangely enough, his absence is vouched by Mormegil. In cahoots? Sherriffs or lycans?

Orominuialwen
Voted for:
Posting Behaviour: Insubstantial post. Nothing to work with.

the guy who be short
Voted for:
Posting Behaviour: Most vocal. Suggested an aborted scheme. Suspects nobody yet but homs in on Hoby and Lhun for unknown reason. Rivalry forming between him and morm.

Mormegil
Voted for:
Posting Behaviour: Suggested a less than perfect scheme that might end in random senseless lynch (what for?). Singles out TGWBS and Oro (why?) out of no where and then thinks TGWBs si innocent. Highly erratic post behaviour. The delivery of that post contradicts its meaning. A lycan?


Werewolf behaviour to note:

1. Unless they have access problems, they will monitor the development of events very closely and try to swerve opinion by direct intervention.

2. They will not usually bandwagon outright to avoid suspicion. However they might be tempted to try so as a gambit (last resort), as a bluff call.

3. Good lycan players throw red herrings and create confusion. This is done by active post direction with sensational contents.

Eomer I so happen to watch the Simpsons and I know what Lionel Hutz is. If that is your plot to bait me into a flame and get me into trouble with forum authorities simply because of our run-in in the last game, you will not succeed. That meaningless sentence only serves to show how petty and shallow you are in person.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

No posts from

Gil-Galad the thunder mistress (don't think I'll ever stop that one)
Lhuna
Nilp

I understand why Nilp and Lhuna haven't yet but Gil's a bit of a mystery so far. I understand we have a lot of time left, but I reassert that I want at least one substantial post from each. Incidentally that would include Saurreg. Again I understand why he hasn't posted but just wanted to say it again.

Saurreg, I said I understand why Lhuna and Nilp haven't posted yet...the whole Phillipines thing. Not just Nilp. I also understand your situation. That's what I meant. I'll say more clearly that I expect better from Gil-Galad in particular. That substandard post will not count as substantial and I will suspect him of being a wolf hiding by giving us little to nothing to be suspicious of.

I will not explain myself regarding my idea of random killings other than to say I was not totally serious and that should suffice.

Edit: Very nice post with good substance Saurreg.

[Lhunardawen]

Alas for poor Fea...Who could have done this to such a fair maiden?

*takes a deep breath, composes herself*

My apologies for dropping in late, but as you all know very well I live in a very weird time zone. And I see that this fact has brought some to look upon me suspiciously. *glares at tgwbs* But I'll give you the benefit of the doubt; after all, you've been a consistent loudmouth. And I don't know how reliable you think that abacus of yours is, but I'll tell you one thing: It is not reliable.

I've been counting with my fingers for the longest time, and I realized that there are only three ordinary villagers compared to six gifted ones. (I'm bad in math, so there.) In doing a random lynching we are more likely to lynch one of these gifted villagers than an ordinary villager OR a werewolf. On the other hand, I don't really think voluntary lynching of an ordinary villager is a good idea.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I think our best bet for today is for everyone to vote for who they think is guilty. That way, everyone won't be voting for the same person, and that voting will leave evidence that we can make some sense out of.

For now I agree that's the best we can do, and maybe we can pick up the pace eventually from there. I just hope we don't choose to lynch a gifted villager...

Originally Posted by tgwbs

While I agree with the plan due to the latter point, remember that the wolves have the ability to influence the vote. I'm betting on an innocent death toDay.

Then, sadly, we'll have to live with that. At least from there we'll have an idea who the werewolves possibly are.

P.S. By the way, Nilp might not be able to post toDay due to some...financial difficulties. His words exactly.

EDIT: Gil-galad, just because of that totally senseless post, I'm keeping an eye on you from now on.

[Lhunardawen]

Just a thought...by lynching an innocent during the Day, don't we increase the chance of the werewolves killing a gifted by Night?

[mormegil]

Well I gave my warning that I would pass judgement on those who refuse to post anything of substance. Thank you Lhuna for posting and for informing us of Nilp. I do hope that he will be able to post tomorrow or else I may take exception to him. However I understand that due to you time zone and country troubles it has been difficult and I am sympathetic with that. However Gi-Galad's post leaves much to be desired and either he hasn't read much of anything or didn't take me seriously.

It is due to my time zone that I need to vote now. Yes we still have 8 hours but it's approaching midnight for me and I work in the morning.

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

funny how its always the small villages that gets attacked...oooh maybe they'll kill me next, i can't take the tension...*ah-hem* I don't want to be dead! I want to be alive! Or, A Cowboy!

Well Gil you may become a dead Cowboy!

++Gil-Galad

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Just a thought...by lynching an innocent during the Day, don't we increase the chance of the werewolves killing a gifted by Night?

Yes but only slightly. But similar logic states that by killing a wolf we are less likely next time. We have a 50/50 chance of killing somebody in the gifted category and somebody in the innocent/wolf category (3 of each)

[Lhunardawen]

It's highly probable that I won't get to post later tonight, so I'll have to cast my vote:

++Gil-galad

Dejá vû, eh?

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Saurreg

Eomer
Voted for:
Posting Behaviour: First to post. Offers nothing substantial. Claims to know two innocents. Could be a talented character (but how can he account for two - sheriff?) or a sly lycan throwing in his gambit.

littlemanpoet
Voted for:
Posting Behaviour: Wants volunteer lynching of three innocents. Wants Seer to remain highly inconspicous (read - ineffective). Very bizzare. To be observed closely. Highest suspect yet.

I quoted these two (see? written in blood right here) ---produces forearm--- because I think Saur's onto something in the first one, an' I'll defend myself regarding the second. Second first: I'm not even going to say whether I'm innocent or a werewolf. Figure it out for yourselves. That's your problem. I know what I am and I'll do what I can, but the lot o' you don't trust me no how so it don't much matter. The Seer shuttin' up about bein' the Seer potentially saves the Seer's life so that said Seer can be useful toward the end game when Seer is most effective. Yes I know it involves the risk of losing the Seer if the wolves get lucky, but I still think it's worth that risk because if the Seer shuts up about being seer early, the only way the wolves will get Seer is if they're lucky. Get it? Fart for brains?

Saur, yer attempt at ana - ana - um - bein' smart says ta me that yer either innocent or a wolf playin' poker face. We'll see. I'm leanin' toward innocent, but that c'ld change.

About Eomer. Actin' way too silly. He better out with his theories now before votes or I'm votin' fer him. An' if he votes fer me, fine. I'd expect it from a fop.

About Gilly: I think you guys are rushin' t' the kill on shoddy grounds. So he says next to nothin' worthwhile in one post. It don't mean nuthin one way or the other. Yer just usin' it as an excuse not to think harder. Too bad fer you. Wasted vote.

Guy, I get it finally on yer #1 point above. If we all vote for the same ungifted innocent, THEN we can't tell werewolf voting patterns whereas if everybody votes to their thinking, werewolf thinking can maybe be found out. Okay. That was the weaker part of my plan. The big part is seer, stay shut up until you have sumthin worth talkin' about like a wolf or two.

Eomer, you got a little while to defend yerself.

[littlemanpoet]

++Eomer

I don' trust his screwy posting. Making suggestions about this and that, tryin' to redirect people's thoughts in a suspicious way. I expect more. Playin' games with people's minds.

[the guy who be short]

May I ask everybody who can to stop and WAIT before they vote, please? We see a situation where G-G could be bandwagonned simply for being who he is.

If he doesn't come up with something to say, let's kill him. If he does, deflect the votes.

For myself, I will probably be voting Firefoot. She's quiet, she's present but not noticable, she wants to kill innocent villagers. As I've said, this plan has immediate flaws. No voting records to look at. No way to work out wolves. Higher chance of Gifted Villies dying in the Night. With as many Gifteds as we have, some will die anyway.
Perhaps the same could be said of LMP, but at least he is present and admitting the weak points. I can only see him as innocent.

I have a "semi-plan" to share. If the Seer looks like s/he is about to be lynched, tell us who you are! We lynch somebody else, wolves kill Seer at Night. It works better than way.

If a Shirriff is about to by lynched - tell us who the other one is! The werewolves are forced to lynch them.

[Saurreg]

Eomer is a wild card. He could be a very bold wolf masquerading as special villager or he could really be one. If he is a special villager then he would be either our seer or one of the sheriffs.

However I really question his boldness in proclaiming his knowledge on who the two innocents are. Would a special character risk everything so soon by proclaiming privilege information, especially when there are so many suspects about? I should think that any special character would try to drop subtle hints whilst laying as inconspicous as possible until the time comes to reveal himself and to quote a famous seer loosely, "carry out the crusade with impunity"

[Saurreg]

TGWBS has a valid point about Gil-galad. But quite frankly I'm reading more into the votes levied against him.

mormegil stated that his vote on the first day is more or less random but based on who was the most suspicious in my opinion. That is quite fair and in the spirit of gamesmanship, morally correct. I see nothing wrong.

But...

Lhun who has been pretty quiet herself immediately joins Morm and votes for Gil for whatever reason, we don't know.

Ten minutes apart. Interesting no?

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Saurreg

However I really question his boldness in proclaiming his knowledge on who the two innocents are. Would a special character risk everything so soon by proclaiming privilege information, especially when there are so many suspects about?

I'm quite certain he is neither a Seer nor a Shirriff - it would be stupid for the Seer to come out so early, and there is no seond Shirriff supporting Eomer. I find it much more likely that he'll be trying to work things out logically.

[Saurreg]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

I'm quite certain he is neither a Seer nor a Shirriff - it would be stupid for the Seer to come out so early, and there is no seond Shirriff supporting Eomer. I find it much more likely that he'll be trying to work things out logically.

And pray tell, what logic are you referring to?

[Kath]

Lhun who has been pretty quiet herself immediately joins Morm and votes for Gil for whatever reason, we don't know.

I was a little concerned about that also but maybe it was due to the fact that she will not be back later and had little time to make a decision. It could be seen as bandwaggoning of course (I love that word!) but it could also just be that she agrees with Morm's ideas and saw no need to put them again.

The problem with that is that I don't understand mormegil's reasons on voting for Gil. He said it was due to the lack of substantial posting, but Gil never posts a huge amount so it is difficult to use this as a reason, especially seeing as how Oro has made even fewer posts with just as little in them. I realise he now can't answer for himself but I'm just wondering if this strikes anyone else as odd.

And Saurreg, I apologise for my meandering, rambling post, but I needed to get my thoughts written out so that when I try to work out what on earth I meant I have something to go back and refer to.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Saurreg.

You really threw me there. If you were joking then shame on you! For it quite hurt me to read that.

Let me explain the 'Lionel Hutz' comment. I was not comparing the two of you. I was not calling you a tricky lawyer. I merely insert Simpsons quotes in some of my posts. I used to do it all the time in Crazy Captions. I was quoting Sideshow Mel because he used the exact same tone of voice I demanded. It was as if I was standing up and saying forcefully I want to hear from Saurreg. Because I really did; you are clever and have much to offer.

And you really made me gasp by referring to our run-in in a previous game. Run-in? What on Earth? Because I accused you of being a werewolf? But that's part of the game! We are meant to get at each other viciously (just look at LMP in this game ). Saurreg; we did not have a run-in. Remember your Eomer-sig? I said that was brilliant in the best signatures thread. In the few posts you have made which I have been fortunate enough to read, I have gained much admiration for you.

Sorry for interrupting the game like that, but I really wanted to clear things up.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I can't believe how seriously some of you took my comment. Did the whole Royalty thing throw you?

By two innocents I meant me and someone else. I am quite content to keep this (likely) innocent quiet for now.

As to the wolves, I'm working on it! Let me re-read everything.

[Holbytlass]

My initial vote is for Eomer, but since it is not retractable I'm waiting for his evidence, which I hope is compelling.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, let's get some dialogue going Holby.

What exactly do you mean by 'his evidence'? Evidence that I'm innocent? Well, I have none. And neither does anyone else.

What do you want from me exactly?

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

As to the wolves, I'm working on it! Let me re-read everything.

My mistake then, I thought this implied you had something therefore I am willing to hear what you had to say and not rashly vote for you.

[Saurreg]

I will be away for the rest of the night (local time) and therefore I must cast my vote now. I would have like to wait for TGWBS to reply to my query and perhaps see who he votes against. However RL beckons.

++Eomer of the Rohirrim

Had I more time, I would have waited and perhaps chose someone else depending on circumstances. However as of now I am most suspicious of him and the moltives behind his posts. I believe him to be a werewolf which is trying to confuse the village with a bold gambit.

[Firefoot]

Okay, so here's where I'm at after catching up on the stuff I missed overnight:

Eomer - is posting in a confusing manner. He tells us he has information, then does not share it. It seems to me that he is either the Seer, a Shirriff, or a Wolf - the only three who know the identity of any innocents. Or maybe he's the hunter, who doesn't actually know any other innocents, and he's trying to get killed (yeah, that's a shot in the dark). I'm not sure what to think, though - I want to hear something conclusive from him.

Gil - one brief post, holding non-pertinent information. Nothing to work with - he's either being himself or being a wolf, or being both.

Holby - is opposed to deliberately lynching innocents, probably a good sign. Not a lot else to work with, though.

Kath - I'm not really sure. She could, like Saurreg said, be a wolf testing the waters, or she could be innocent. She seems pretty clueless, though (no offense, Kath ) - I suppose I'm leaning innocent.

Lhuna - What she said makes sense, but she didn't really contribute anything new to the table. That could go either way - either she's a villager who hasn't been able to make much sense out of the posting so far, or she's a wolf not wanting to put her nose out too far. Her vote for Gil is interesting, but not really conclusive. There just isn't any substance to Gil's post, so barring any other suspects, a vote for him makes sense. Or she could be a bandwaggoning wolf. Unknown.

LMP - wants to lynch ungifted innocents. Even if I don't agree with his logic, I can mostly follow it. I do, however, find his response that not being able to deduce wolves from voting records is no matter - this doesn't make sense to me. Voting records are some of the best evidence we have, especially this early in the game.

Morm - expects people to live up to certain expectations - i.e. contributing something of substance every day. This could be a wolvish ploy to take the spotlights off himself, but I'm coming to think that's just the way Morm is. He has tended to make sense to me. At this point I can't tell if he is bluffing or innocent.

Nilp - No posts. Nothing to comment on.

Oromin - Two brief posts, nothing conclusive to comment on. Possibly a wolf trying to slip under the radar.

Sauregg - His analysis made sense to me. Could be a wolf but I doubt it.

TGWBS - I'm not really sure. He's very vocal. His plan would have been good but for the fact that a Ranger can't guard the same person twice - if he honestly didn't catch this, he is innocent. If he tried to get by with it, he's likely a wolf. But we can't prove that either way. He accused me of wanting to lynch innocents even though I specifically said I didn't, but that's no grounds for lynching.