Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Lhunardawen]

Eek, sorry for the confusion Rikae. Shtoopid Nilp forgot I was still logged on.

I haven't done more than a cursory read-through of toDay and yesterDay. But I see some people have also considered the possibility of Lommy being the EW and going after Agan. I don't know exactly how, but as I re-read their posts yesterDay (especially the ones with all caps and exclamation points - those were hilarious) the idea seemed to be likelier to me. Agan's last words certainly fit the notion, at least as I understand it.

The confusing thing for me is, I'm also getting the stronger feeling that the phantom might be the EW. Don't know how I got there. There's something fishy about him telling me that if he was the EW he would kill me if I kept on insisting that he was. I don't get it.

Anyway, Leggie is still suspicious. I can vaguely remember that he made some inconsistencies yesterDay. I'll try to dig them up.

[the phantom]

Eomer's been posting, eh? No wonder I picked up on WW vibes. He's EVIL!!

Green's still looking innocent to me. You're wrong about me though.

Originally Posted by Cai/Eomer

Well, that was pretty easy. I know you'll be offended by this, phantom, but I can just dismiss your post. By your standards it's pretty lame.

I'm not offended. I know it's lame. But I just can't shake this feeling, like it or not.

And I see I even forgot another one of my Cai=guilty reasons....

I would've scried her as the EW! Totally, without a doubt. She would've been on my list Night 1 and had I not gotten her I would've been anxious to add her to my den.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Gwath and phantom - very interesting. Now I have to go back and read Cailin's posts again. I think you guys have something there.

Ah, excellent. Hey Gwath- we have a member recruited for our Lynch Cailin Club!

Legate, my good friend and business partner, what do you think? Interested in joining?

Originally Posted by LomLom

STOP TRUSTING MY JUDGEMENT ON AGANZIR!!!!!!!!!!

See, I can kind of understand this coming from an Ordo. I've felt like that before, where I suspect someone and then people depend on me to be right and I begin to doubt myself and get to feeling really guilty about what if the person is actually innocent and I'm getting them lynched etc.

I trust Lommy.

And I'm liking Rikae more than ever. Calling the EW names. That's gutsy.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by The love of my life

The confusing thing for me is, I'm also getting the stronger feeling that the phantom might be the EW. Don't know how I got there. There's something fishy about him telling me that if he was the EW he would kill me if I kept on insisting that he was. I don't get it.

Where is your sense of loyalty? Even if you do suspect that I am the EW, as my fiance you should be supportive of me and my hobbies. That is why I'd kill you- for betraying me.

Two people who are in love should be able to work through problems. They can't let a simple matter of their-spouse-is-a-murdering-embodiment-of-evil break them apart.

[Lhunardawen]

the phantom: What's with the Lommy-Agan thing? Surely there's something to it?
Leggie: Not necessarily.

Just that? No elaboration? Trying to cover up your master and fellow slave?

Sorry, I can't help commenting on this:

Originally Posted by the phantom

*grin* I love you, Lhuna.

I know. What I don't know is why you won't just marry me already.

(And we could have the first in-game marriage! Wouldn't that be fun?)

EDIT: cross-posted with - of all people - my fiance

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Where is your sense of loyalty? Even if you do suspect that I am the EW, as my fiance you should be supportive of me and my hobbies. That is why I'd kill you- for betraying me.

Two people who are in love should be able to work through problems. They can't let a simple matter of their-spouse-is-a-murdering-embodiment-of-evil break them apart.

Well, if you are the EW, why don't you curse me? I know they've all been saying that I hate being evil - and they speak the truth - but I thought that maybe you would want me to be with you...

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

But she also casts the vote that gets Aganzir killed, which means that either she is a wolf who decided to risk sacrificing her fellow in order to build her own reputation, an innocent who made some mistakes early on, or a wolf who got scried over somewhere in between Nerwen's death and Aganzir's death.

The Problem with this is it has the unfounded assumption that the wolves know each other. Normal rules don't apply here and those assumptions cannot be made. I prefer to think of the wolves not knowing each other and that means that, if Cailin is a wolf, then that vote means nothing. Personally, if I were a wolf, I would be going after the most suspicious people, it makes you look more credible and I wouldn't worry too much about killing one or two others.

Well this is where I have read to...there have been a lot of, ummmm useful posts and I'm glad that there's not a lot of drivel to sift through.

[the phantom]

Well, if you are the EW, why don't you curse me? I know they've all been saying that I hate being evil - and they speak the truth - but I thought that maybe you would want me to be with you...

But I shouldn't have to curse you to gain your loyalty. Would you really want to be with someone that you had to put a spell on? Love and will domination don't go together. Call me a hopeless romantic, but I want to be loved out of free will.

[Lhunardawen]

I've learned from a wise man named Kuruharan in a village of old that a personality change means you're hiding something. I don't know if this is a good thing or bad when applied to Rikae. But thus far I'm inclined to trust her. I hope the calling-the-EW-names tactic is not a way of hiding out in the open.

Anyway, Kath's reason for - or the lack of sense in - voting Mac worries me:

So, I don't like Mac here. He tried to fight against Lhuna but when she gave him nothing he gave up and went after someone else.

Mac certainly didn't try to fight against me, he simply asked me why I suspected him, because admittedly I didn't really explain it well. He didn't really suspect me, so he had no reason to go after me.

That's the sound of my alarm bell ringing a bit.

I don't know how much time I have, so I have to vote soon.

Right now I'm still unsure about Leggie, but I'm willing to give him one more Day.

Maybe the reason I suspected Cailin was that she felt odd to me yesterDay - but that was because she was a he then, and Eomer always feels furry.

The person I feel most like going after right now is sally. I find her distracting, since Day 1. She posts so much with little substance.

I'm not sure if it's worth voting for Lommy simply because I'm more convinced she's the EW than I am with my dear phantom.

I'll be back.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

But I shouldn't have to curse you to gain your loyalty. Would you really want to be with someone that you had to put a spell on? Love and will domination don't go together. Call me a hopeless romantic, but I want to be loved out of free will.

Really, phantom. As if anyone could resist loving you.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

++Rikae

I would have done a normal analysis like before, but it'll be like computing the trajectory of a missile when you can perfectly see its nose heading for you.

I sense there's something wrong with her toDAY, as I've said in 593, and the way she ignores my suspicions, and . . . well, just pokes fun at serious theories--with Diamond that would have been normal; with her it feels unnatural. Something has changed in her.

[Lhunardawen]

I really wish I had more time and was certain of it, or at least more people are posting right now, but neither is the case and so I must make my rather uncertain vote.

++satansaloser2005

She's the one I feel most comfortable voting for toDay. I completely agree with her name, though.

Good night, everyone.


EDIT: Darn it, Nilp, you spoiled what could have been my triple-posting action!

[Rikae]

Anybody who trusts me is obviously evil, because I have never seen anyone so obviously evil as me. That means tp and Lhuna are both evil, evil, eeeeevil.

On another note: do we really want to lynch the EW? Wouldn't it serve our purposes better to actually get rid of somebody who's a direct threat to us? Well, I suppose at least by lynching the EW, we don't end up lynching somebody from our own side... but it is a bit of a wasted lynch, methinks.

EDIT: X'd with Nilp and Lhuna.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Mother

On another note: do we really want to lynch the EW? Wouldn't it serve our purposes better to actually get rid of somebody who's a direct threat to us? Well, I suppose at least by lynching the EW, we don't end up lynching somebody from our own side... but it is a bit of a wasted lynch, methinks.

Bingo!

That's precisely why we should lynch Cailin rather than me.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by mormegil

The Problem with this is it has the unfounded assumption that the wolves know each other. Normal rules don't apply here and those assumptions cannot be made. I prefer to think of the wolves not knowing each other and that means that, if Cailin is a wolf, then that vote means nothing. Personally, if I were a wolf, I would be going after the most suspicious people, it makes you look more credible and I wouldn't worry too much about killing one or two others.

Umm...I hope you're not trying to mislead us here, morm? Of course it's a valid assumption. It's a risky thing to do for the Evil Team, yes, but it's too much to say that we can't make any such assumption.

[Isabellkya]

Okay, I'm here and I have to vote soon.
Unfortunately for today it is decent weather outside, which means I have to attend this family fishing outing - which means I may be back before deadline, but I don't want to risk saying my two cents and a vote in case I'm not. I'd debated with myself about holding it until later, since it is so early, but then I may not have time to skim whatever is new and has happened toDay. *hopefully it starts raining on the way there.*


I wouldn't mind voting for Diamond, I'd seen there was a lot of joking but had not really realized how much of it there was. Which joking is fine, but how far will that help in hunting for wolves? She wouldn't be my top voting choice, but I wouldn't mind it.

I've only skimmed the thing between Lommy and Aganzir, and vaguely remembering the game where it was an all-female wolf pack..Volo's game.. I remember (if correctly) Lommy and Aganzir were both wolves - and Lommy claimed gifted. So I wouldn't put it past either of them to be up to shenanigans together. I think most of us believe that the wolves and EW don't know each other. Could be very true, but I don't think the EW has to let ALL of the wolves know/communicate between themselves. If they'd picked two particularly sneaky schemers, s/he could've informed the two of each other and let them loose on the board.

In which case I would like to take a closer look at Lommy for that very reason, assuming I am remembering correctly.

I would like to take a closer look at Lalaith because I don't really remember much of what I've read about her, but from today it is almost kind of odd. I know you said it toDay atleast, but I can't find the blasted post now. Anyhow, it seems in your list/searching it was based on people whom are/could be wolves based on whether or not the EW thought them potentially the GW. Which strikes me as a very limited avenue of recruiting wolves. I don't know if you actually believe that the EW would be doing such a thing, but weird nonetheless.

Greenie, if I look bad based on activity or possibly lack-there-of; then you my dear sister-in-law must look far worse. :P

Cailin, I wouldn't mind voting for her based on some actions yesterday of shopping her vote around. Though it does bring a new light that Eomer is there in - well haunting spirit sometimes.

I think that is all for now. Will be back shortly with my vote.


X'd with nilp, Lhuna, Rikae, phantom, Lhuna

[Lalaith]

I said before and I still think its true...a sensible EW would give her wolves a shortlist of lynchables. There's no danger in that, because even if a wolf were turned and spilt the beans to the village, well, the list might not still be valid as she might in that case scry a new wolf off the shortlist.

[Lalaith]

thought them potentially the GW. Which strikes me as a very limited avenue of recruiting wolves. I don't know if you actually believe that the EW would be doing such a thing, but weird nonetheless.

Because the only way the EW can find the identity of the GW is by scrying. The GW on the other hand has two alternatives: her scrying or her Seer.
Of course, it could be that the EW just wants to sit back and wait to let the GW find her, but I don't think so - I think she would try to combine the two activities.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Izzy

Cailin, I wouldn't mind voting for her based on some actions yesterday of shopping her vote around. Though it does bring a new light that Eomer is there in - well haunting spirit sometimes.

Come on Izzy. Vote Cailin please. *gives puppy dog eyes*

The fact that Eomer is already involved only makes her more dangerous. We must oust her while we can, for soon between the two of them they will dominate the village!

[Isabellkya]

I could easily vote for you phantom, for trying to wile votes to your cause.


In any case,

++ Diamond

For reasons stated before, and I guess I had not been paying attention, she was on the Mac bandwagon yesterDay.

Ahh, I guess I had not really realized that Lalaith. Though I'm still not comfortable in thinking the EW is picking wolves based almost solely on their potential of being the GW. Nothing can be done about either until toMorrow - so very easily the EW could've picked some of her wolves based on something else/more than GW attributes.

Okay, I'm off now; *hopes for rain*

[Lalaith]

Actually, thinking about what I said just now....the EW can of course also use wolf-kills to discover the GW. Perhaps that was what was going on, on Night Two (Volo could have been a potential wizard) but probably not on Night Three.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Ah, excellent. Hey Gwath- we have a member recruited for our Lynch Cailin Club!

Whoa there. We aren't friends yet, and I still suspect you as much as anyone else. Yesterday you gung-ho for helping Cailin string me up, but as soon as Cailin starts to look bad, you drop her and start ingratiating yourself with her opponents. Nice. Where's your sense of loyalty?

[Gwathagor]

As much as I don't like Cailin (which is a lot), tp's campaign to get her lynched looks nearly as bad. It's really really scummy. "Legate, my good friend and business partner, what do you think? Interested in joining?" "Come on Izzy. Vote Cailin please. *gives puppy dog eyes*" "Bingo! That's precisely why we should lynch Cailin rather than me." He kind of reminds me of a corrupt politician who will say anything and befriend anybody in order to get votes he needs.

[the phantom]

You're right, Gwath. I'm doing anything I can to get voters.

1) I really do think Cailin is suspicious.

2) If I'm wrong then the GW might want to look into me.

3) If I'm right the EW and the GW might want to look into me.

So this is sort of a great situation that I'm in. I really truly believe that I'm right about Cailin, but even if I'm wrong it increases my chances of getting a role.

And as far as my cry for Legate's help- it's partially in character (he's my fellow sheep herder). But it's also because he is one of the ones I trust and I'd like to forge an alliance.

As far as buddying up to you, I was just happy to see someone else who seemed to share my suspicions.

What, are you feeling a bit like Lommy yesterday- not comfortable with people following your hunches?

[Roa_Aoife]

Alright, I'm here and alive (mostly). Before I go through toDay's posts, some thoughts from the previous Day:

Phantom, this time you were not in danger, and yet you still chose to hop on someone else's suspicions rather than your own. You even complained after someone else voted for me that they came after your vote. Why so afraid to be the first to vote for me? Why not cast a vote for who you really want to rather than hang around trying to find someone among the people who have already been voted? You're bandwaggoning. You're doing nothing but bandwaggoning. I do believe toDay is the first day that you've actually openly tried to get someone, and I doubt you'll be the first to vote her.

Edit: cross posted with phantom- the GW isn't going to scry if you're at risk of being scried by the EW in the same night, so give it up. Of course, if are a wolf, then you have nothing to fear by being scried by the GW.

[Rikae]

Sorry tp, I know you aren't the EW. Besides, I'm not entirely opposed to lynching the EW, anyway.

Nilp, you're wrong. I am always like this. I don't think you've played with me before, have you? Those who have are so used to me acting strangely, I couldn't get lynched if I wanted to. Allow me to demonstrate:

++Rikae

EDIT: X'd with tp and Roa

[Roa_Aoife]

I find Rikae's post ironic in that it's responding to Nilp, who is famous for self-voting.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I find Rikae's post ironic in that it's responding to Nilp, who is famous for self-voting.

Ironic, but not at all suspicious, eh?
Last time I self-voted, I got lynched for it. Now there's nothing new under the sun.

That's ok. I'm the GW, anyhow - so you really couldn't lynch me.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Roa

Phantom, this time you were not in danger, and yet you still chose to hop on someone else's suspicions rather than your own. You even complained after someone else voted for me that they came after your vote. Why so afraid to be the first to vote for me?

I didn't really want to vote for you. I did suspect you a little bit, but never as much as others. I kind of want you to stick around. You're fun, and opinionated.

Does this mean you're feeling a bit better, btw?

Ah, and Rikae votes for herself. You're brilliant, mother!

I couldn't get lynched if I wanted to.

Don't say that. People might... erm... interpret it in a certain way....

[Cailín]

Over Rikae, I can't understand. Let me digest this madness.

I just wanted to express frustration over what the phantom is doing. Nice to see that Gwath, who does suspect me, can see this with an open-mind. Phantom, I don't see what's so great about the situation you're in. Forget about what the wizards want to do for a moment: You can easily get lynched for such behaviour, and at this stage I wouldn't mind much.

Here, let me try:

Please everyone, vote for the phantom. I really, really think he's suspicious. Incidentally, be my friend.

But you may just be saved by whatever the hel Rikae's doing.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Rikae

That's ok. I'm the GW, anyhow - so you really couldn't lynch me.

Really? I never would've guessed.

Then who would you recommend that we lynch?

[Lalaith]

Hmmm...very odd. I am ready to believe that Rikae is telling the truth, in that she would be a likely wizard.

But why would the GW declare now? She is a team member down, and as I've proved earlier, the EW hasn't found her yet.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by naughty boy

Then who would you recommend that we lynch?

You!

[Rikae]

No, seriously, though, lynch Legate. He's evil.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, it has a little bit to do with him. But only because a lot of what I said about the EW was in response to him. I see that a lot of people just breezed by those posts because they didn't want to get involved. So, as I survive another day without being killed or wolf-ified, I'm going to recompile all that I said. Please read it.

Originally Posted by Me

Or the EW could have counted on people assuming that no one obvious would be picked and so picked the most obvious. We can't know for certain, and so we shouldn't rule anyone out.

Originally Posted by me

The reason the EW may not want the wolves to know her identity is because if the GW scries a werewolf, that wolf imediately changes sides and becomes an ordo. More importantly, an ordo who knows the identity of the EW and can share it with the village. Each wizard wants to protect their own identity sso that they can challenge the other wizard on their own terms, ie. when the conditions are in favor of their respective teams. So the EW is hesitant to the wolves any information.

Originally Posted by me

Every EW will work differently. The EW could have picked someone who was high profile as a smokescreen to hide behind. Look, the second we start ruling people out, those are the people the EW will pick. Trust me on that one- I was there. Let's not make the choice any easier for her. Trying to avoid the GW was only one of concerns, and it was more from the fact that I'd be discovered by him if we scried the same person at the same time. He was theonly one who could stop me, and so he was the only one I feared. That is no longer a problem.

When I was the EW, I picked wolves from all over. I had high profile wolves, I had under-the-radar wolves, I had wolves that I planned to sacrifice. I'm trying to share what I learned from my experience with the village. Never rule anyone out as a potential wolf, and no one except the GW is a known innocent until they're dead.

Originally Posted by me

Also, on the point of the deaths of Volo and Kitanna- it is more likely that they were killed because the EW believed them likely scries by the GW, and she picked correctly for one of them. I hope for the sake of our gifteds that the GW is scattering his choices around abit, and not sticking to players of certain qualities.

Originally Posted by me

You may be right in that the EW would not want to risk it. But I was the EW, and I did risk it. Heck, I was down a wolf (due to the double pick fiasco) and I still did it. So your definite "NO" is definitely not definite.

Also, I don't know why you are so certain that the EW gave her wolves possible lynch candidates. I never did, and my wolves did just fine. The GW did something like that for the entire village, but only after his role had been revealed. In fact, I even encouraged my wolves to lynch as they liked. Someone acts suspiciously? Lynch them! It makes the wolves harder to trace because they aren't having to lie about their suspicions.

Originally Posted by me

That's very nice, it's true. However, there are more options than that available. The EW may be willing to give up that extra kill for one Night in order to act out another more sinister plan. Not all of us think that simply, and it's folly to suggest that the current EW must think that way.

Originally Posted by me

It's about making assumptions about the EW's behavior which have little backing other than your own preference, which the EW may or may not share. So, you can't expect us to rule out this possibility just because you wouldn't do it.

Originally Posted by me

And how do you know what the EW believes is necessary?

Originally Posted by me

Again, why are you so certain of this? What in past history has led you to believe that this is the way the EW will operate? There's no logic or proof behind this theory, ...., and it can be dangerous if everyone assumes it's true if it's not. We could be led on a wild goose chase trying to figure out a supposed short list of lynchees that doesn't really exist.

Originally Posted by me

First, phantom, you're statistics aren't even logical, because you leave out : a. the hunter, b. the ranger, and c. the EW herself, who might change a gifted into an ordo instead of an ordo into a gifted, thus keeping the wolf population down.

Second, those who think losing the seer isn't such a bad thing, consider what would happen if it was Day 4 and the EW knew the GW's identity. She could then challenge and take the GW out before she had a chance to replace the seer, and the village would be in trouble. Who was saying that again?

Originally Posted by me

The EW:

In the last game, I took care to avoid people that might be scried by the GW, not so much because I was worried about losing a wolf (until morm accidentally found me out) but because if we scried the same people on the same Night, my identity would be revealed. That is not the case this game. If the wolf doesn't know anything, then losing him to the GW may not be so bad. However, if the GW and the EW scry the same person in a Night, that person dies. This is a third kill for the evil team! The GW is the one who will be avoiding scrying possible EW picks in order to keep innocents from dying. (Which, by the way, is why I believe the phantom will not be picked by the GW.)

So lose the mentality that the EW won't pick likely GW scries for scrying. It will only mislead you into to looking away from those that could be wolves. Until we know who the EW is, we have no way of knowing who they might have picked. YOU CANNOT RULE ANYONE OUT FOR THE REASON THAT THEY ARE UNLIKELY PICKS. The EW may have very well counted on that thinking. Until we know who the EW is, you must look at everyone with equal possibility.

Edit: cross posted.... Oh my

[the phantom]

You!

Whatever.

You've dreamed about me already, haven't you?

I'm quite insulted that you dreamed me rather than scried me though. I would've made an excellent replacement Seer!

[Roa_Aoife]

Rikae, I'm assuming that your seer dreamed him?

And phantom wasn't evil when your seer dreamed him? When was that?

[Roa_Aoife]

And the first him I'm reffering to is Legate.

Is he a wolf or the EW?

[Diamond18]

I'm not at all impressed by EoCailin's defense.

Yes, I brought up the idea of Eomer voting having something to do with... anything... but I don't like how readily EoCailin has jumped on this as the answer to everything. Frankly, I brought it mainly to see how Cailin responded.

She could even be lying. But even if it is "the truth" then, duh, if Cailin is evil Eomer most certainly is. So we've go double the evil posting under one name. Two evil brains! It's horrifying. Lynching Cailin is practically a double lynch as you exorcise the evil ghost of Eomer, too.

Anyway, the main reason I'm not convinced by the idea that Eomer posting helps explain away any inconsistency is this (which happened in the same day) --

It doesn't answer, in my mind, why Cailin threatened to get me lynched, but then abruptly dropped her case when I told her flat out that being guilty of starting a lynch campaign against an innocent should prove very bad for her if she was successful, especially in light of Nerwen's death.

Instead of continuing to suspect me, she just went "Diamond's dying to be picked " (sorry not a direct quote, I'm freestyling here) and pretty much dropped her "case."

Why?

Because she (HE?) knew I was right. She knew that going with the flow was better than starting a campaign against an innocent.

I don't like smug threats to get someone lynched. That's soooooooo wolvish. Innocents don't feel the sort of power that a wolf does, ergo don't go around saying "Don't complain to me when I get you lynched haha."

[Rikae]

I didn't say anybody dreamed tp at all.

EDIT: X'd with Roa and Diamond. Legate is a wolf.

[Lalaith]

Ah, there you are, Roa. I wanted to ask you stuff about EWing.

EW gave her wolves possible lynch candidates. I never did, and my wolves did just fine

Ok, that's interesting. I would assume that an EW would guide her wolves.

And - did you really not use your scries to try to find the GW? Or did you find him so early that you could devote your time just to making wolves? As I seem to remember I think the latter scenario was the case, that your wolves found Gurthang pretty early on.

Oh and another question - can we trust anything you tell us now?