Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[The Only Real Estel]

Um...oops, my vote would go towards ++Saucepan Man, then.

edit: I guess I was looking at the post time for phantom's lynching scene & not the post time for when we discovered Firefoot's end, sorry about that I had planned on going into a little more detail than just posting a vote, but I guess that'll have to wait until DAY

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

That's ok, I am not going to adhere to the Barrow-wight's 'to the minute' tyranny!

It's not like Saucy needed another vote but.....o well. I'll post a new lynching scene momentarily.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

And so The Saucepan Man was to be put to death. The villagers had decided that they'd take their chances and kill the brewer, rather than ensure a steady supply of ale. Tough choices indeed in these evil times.

Saucepan Man himself was not exactly the opposite of merry: he had been drinking much special brew these past few days, knowing full well that his fellows would kill him sooner or later. He had enjoyed his last hours as much as possible, but it was yet nagging him that the people were so hell-bent on killing one who had served them so well. Alas! he stumbled to the gallows.

Some villagers jeered at him; others stood in silence not at all convinced that this friendly man was a malevolent threat to them. The ceremony went very quickly, smoothly and efficiently; the villagers were well-practised in the art of hanging.

And as The Saucepan Man fell and his neck broke, it became apparent that that was not the villagers' speciality; no doubt, the villagers' field of mastery was the art of voting for completely innocent people to be murdered.

The wolves in the crowd could barely contain themselves from bursting into laughter.


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
The Only Real Estel

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2
the phantom (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 3
Firefoot (Guardian) - drowned in blood by werewolves on NIGHT 4
The Saucepan Man (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 4

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 5


NIGHT 5 has begun, now that it is around 3:45 PM GMT (that's 10:45 AM EST) and 9:45 AM Central). It will end in 24 hours, or sooner if all night-time activity is reported to me by then.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

To say the morale of Storyland was at an all-time low would be......entirely correct. The village was pretty much bathing in misery. Whither now could they turn to for guidance?

Early in the morning, a scream disturbed the sleepers. They rushed out to see what had happened, and what they saw was one of their fellows weeping on the ground outside the kirk. Inconsolable, all the poor thing could do was point upwards. The friends looked.......and saw the cleric mormegil skewered on the spire, away up in the sky; and the blood was dripping down on the walls of the kirk.

The villagers knew that they had used up all of their mistakes.


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
Oddwen
Shelob
The Only Real Estel

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2
the phantom (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 3
Firefoot (Guardian) - drowned in blood by werewolves on NIGHT 4
The Saucepan Man (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 4
mormegil (Villager) - sacrified on the kirk by werewolves on NIGHT 5

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 4


DAY 5 has started, now that it is 3:30 PM GMT (that's 10:30 AM EST) and (9:30 AM Central). It will end in 24 hours or sooner if a majority vote is reached by then.

[Kuruharan]

Oh well. Like I said, play enough and you’ll be spectacularly wrong eventually. I will now take the howls of derision that are my due. I probably deserve being lynched for being that wrong.

(I hope the werewolves are enjoying this. I personally haven’t been able to stop laughing about it since yesterday. The reason why will probably become more apparent at the end, although people will probably think I have a strange sense of humor.)

[Holbytlass]

Oh, how awful!!
At least we know the church has remained pure and these devils had not infiltrated among the rightous leaders.

[Shelob]

"The reason why will probably become more apparent at the end, although people will probably think I have a strange sense of humor." ~Kuru

It seems to me I've heard those words before Kuru, but then again perhaps you meant them to echo Evisse's

"if you see me laughing on the way to the hanging spot, it's because I have a very weird sense of humour. But some of you at least are sure to cry."


Interesting, no?

Also this is likely the last chance I have to be on until 7 Eastern Time (so some 6 hours if you don't want to bother with translating between timezones)
I don't have a lot to say now but I promise I shall when I return from work.

[The Only Real Estel]

Well, I don't think there's any shame in me saying that I have completely lost confidence in my methods at this particular village. Every theory that I've had (or any theory that I've picked up on) seems to go wrong.

I am a bit puzzled by mormegil's murdering, though. You'd think they would've taken out one of the lower-profile villagers again, leaving the 'loudmouth' (asFordim so affectionately calls us ) to get lynched by fellow loudmouths. Looking back at SpM's latest theory, he thought that the three wolves were Kuru, mormegil, & Holbytlass. When SpM was proven to be innocent, I was willing to give his theory a try - perhaps that is why mormegil was taken out. Let me explain. Once SpM was hung & proven innocent, the wolves might've suspected us to look towards the trio that he had set out. Now, they weren't afraid of us lynching mormegil (obviously), but morm was not the most logical starting point. Since Kuru went to the greatest lengths to attack SpM, and since SpM himself voted for Kuru last round it was most logical that we would test his theory starting with Kuru. Now, perhaps Sauce was two-thirds right. Kuru &Holbytlass could be wolves, that would explain why they offed mormegil, to discourage us from testing Sauce's theory. I am not sure by a mile, but I thought it was something I should bring up.

Personally I'd like to hear Fordim's plan of action again, since SpM seemed so convinced of Fordy's innocence & SoN's theory that I had planned on testing holds no water anymore.

In post #311 Fordim said:

My theory: one of either morm, Kuru, TORE or Sauce are wolves providing cover for the two quiet wolves.

(he voted for a quite wolf, Holbytlass)

Well, we know that morm was not a wolf, we know that Sauce was not a wolf, & I know that I am not a wolf. That leaves Kuru (and it leaves you). Out of all the villagers that are left I think I can come the closest to trusting Fordim, though. That leaves Kuru as the cover man and then two quite wolves, Holbytlass, perhaps is one of those, I'm not sure yet.

What does everyone else say?

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

If you are reading this post, dear brethren, then I have successfully made it through another NIGHT. In hope, but no great expectation of this, I have begun this post almost immediately upon reading of the sad murder of our much abused brewer by the three wolves:

Kuruharan
Holbytlass
Shelob

I am more sure of this list than I have been of anything in this game. I am not saying that it is the definitive list and that I have got all three wolves, but at least two of those names are fuzzy monsters (it’s possible that Kuru should be replaced by TORE) . Rather than go through a whole whack of arguments of my own, I shall let them speak for themselves…

On the first DAY I proposed my strategies and received the following, near identical responses:

Holby:

I kinda like the protecting of the seer idea. I'm not going to comment about the voting idea because, right now, I'm confused. And so sad for that rascal, Eomer.

Shelob:

As to what has here been said before mine entrance I have no qualms with the plan to protect the seer. It seems like 'twill give the hairy fiends a double headache in their nightly plots. I do however feel the much debated "short-list voting" to be lacking somewhat in mathmatics.

These were two of the only positive responses to it (along with the wolves’ first victim, our seer, Evisse). That they should come so close together and sound so much alike is interesting. But not so interesting as the sudden retractions posted by both monsters when they saw that the wind of general opinion was turning against them…

Holby:

For example, I did say that I thought the seer idea was a good one. Now that it has been stated of the huge advantage for the wolves I'm not so sure that we should do it. Now, no offense is meant for you, Mr. Fordim. The mere fact that you thought of and planned two daring ideas to protect all of us is mind boggling. I could never have done such a thing in a year and all we have is a day.

Shelob:

2) Out of all the behavious and tendencies I saw there the most suspicious to me is agreeing with what either was or will be clear to everyone (ie: the the plans are flawed) but still wishing to use them. To me this suggests that Evisse was trying to avoid suspicion by agreeing, but still hoping to get the plans impemented so as to help herself (and her lycanthropic kin).

So not only are they both suddenly against the ideas, without a shred of explanation, but Shelob is now using support of the plan as a reason to lynch Evisse. Meanwhile, Holby (who is far and away the smartest and most dangerous of the wolves) is stirring up the loudmouths and setting them against one another, and directing all attention toward them:

Holby:

Looking at the little shred of 'evidence'...
I ought to vote Fordim for his plan that has caused confusion
I ought to vote Saucepan Man for his innitial suspicion of me
Maybe Phantom cause he's too wily and smart.

Despite having identified three loudmouths (who were lynched, I might add, in reverse order as given here), however, she goes on in the same post to vote for Azaelia – with that notorious “coin flip.” This makes sense as the last thing she wolfishly wanted was for one of the suspicious loudmouths to get lynched on the first day when they can be set against one another for days to come…anyway, Evisse by this point is already doomed, so why cast a vote for someone who is about to be shown innocent, thus drawing attention down upon one’s wolfish self?

That night, of course, the guy who be short was killed by the wolves in that obvious attempt to frame me. mormegil is the first to point out that it was an obvious ploy and everyone agrees with this…but for two interesting exceptions:

Kuru:

It makes me think that the werewolves killed TGWBS thinking that we would never believe that Fordim (being one of them) would do something so obvious.

However, that is just a theory and not necessarily the best one at the moment. However, Fordim has ruined the calming of my suspicions about him.

Shelob:

Well,actually, no...I can think of one other possibility...assume Fordim is a werewolf, then by killing someone so clearly opposed to Fordim the werewolves would all but guarantee that everyone looks at the kill and thinks "It can't be Fordim, this is too obvious."...I'm not saying I believe Fordim to be a werewolf right now (I still hold the confusion he caused yesterday as a point against him, but from that we've all got a point against us so it doesn't really count) I just want this possibility aired so that we don't all ignore it completely...

At this point, Oddwen makes the first of the very few accusations against Holby who responds with what is, for her, a rather surprising amount of vehemence:

Holby:

Go ahead and lynch me with another, that would make the wolves happy having villagers do their work for them!! especially 'in one fell swoop' or whatever that saying was. I'm annoyed that I'm being accused of a wolf just because I haven't said anything. I have been here for quite awhile and i'm trying to take notes, my hands are faster with a hammer than a pen. And maybe all of you who talk too much, too fast, and point fingers too often ought to be strung up in a tie! It would seem more wolfish to cause noise than to think.
Now, please, forgive me for my rant. I want to be clear on things before any votes be given or where to place my vote.

The next time Holby emerges it is to point fingers at the loudmouths again:

Holby:

Maybe Fordim's short list might come in handy....
The 2 main suspects are Phantom and Saucepan Man. Some are suspicous of one or the other and some are suspicious of both. Are there any who do not suspect either?

And only a few posts later she is joined by Shelob:

I would vote for Saucepan Man...but I would as willingly vote for you Phantom..

And the next time we hear from Shelob she’s still at it, this time even citing Kuru and Holby in support of her argument:

Shelob:

anyway to continue...as the points stand that way (and admittedly it's not a very accurate way...) it's Saucepan Man: 4.5, Phantom 4 (Kuru hinted at SpM in post 175, but since he never named names I counted it only as a half a point)

I'm not sure how to read Holby's post (190)...it says simply that the most suspicion is on those two and actually seems to suggest an idea similar to Kuru's...worst comes to worst it boosts the points up to 5.5 and 5 accordingly...

I’ve not quoted the loudmouthed Wolf very much, because I don’t feel I have to. Sauce has already made the case against Kuru more effectively than I ever could. But I would like to point out this interesting post…

Kuru:

Oh yes, then there is the other werewolf Firefoot who will vote for the phantom.

I was forgetting about her (even though I probably have less excuse for that than others).

This spurious accusation was not taken up by anyone else, and soon after it, Firefoot is dead.

With the death of our Guardian, I started making my case for the quiet wolves, and just as with happened with my initial propositions on the first DAY there’s agreement…

Holby:

I do agree that there probably is at least one 'quiet' wolf,

and yet when it comes time to vote…

Holby:

I have read all theories and posts and opinions that have been put forth so far, I feel like The Phantom did the other day when he believed all of them. Yesterday, I voted for SaucepanMan, today I do the same. I think we should put Kuru's idea into action.

++SaucepanMan

And then, once more, there’s a post after this in which the other quiet wolf mirrors the actions of her brilliant leader:

Shelob:

I still feel strongly that Kuru is a werewolf...but the only argument against him is one based on strategy...Saucepan Man has a few stronger points against him.

For such reasons I feel it to be in our best interest that I vote ++THE SAUCEPAN MAN ...though part of me still screams against it...

So once more we have a lot of smoke as they go back and forth about who to vote for, apparently confused and undecided about which of the loudmouths to go after, and then in the end they go after the same one…

There is simply too much evidence here of co-ordinated effort for it to be happenstance. At least two of these people are Wolves. For my money, Holby is the most likely candidate to be a wolf – and the smartest of the wolves. If it came to a vote between Shelob and Kuru I would vote for Shelob because it’s possible that Kuru is not a wolf, just the wolves’ unintentional patsy.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

More evidence...

On DAY 2 Shelob voted for Sauce and Holby voted for TP

On DAY 3 Holby voted for Sauce and Shelob voted for TP

What better way to make sure that the loudmouths keep going at one another than by splitting their votes and then switching them around the next DAY to avoid looking as though they have a vandetta?

For the record: on DAY 1 they both cast meaningless votes (Holby for Az) and Shelob for an already doomed Evisse. The only time they have ever voted together was to lynch Sauce when it was clear to everyone that it was going to come down to a vote between our beloved brewer and their wolfish ally or innocent dupe Kuru.

Foolish wolves, you should have killed me when you had the chance. Poor morm though....

By the way, I think that you have hit the nail right on the head with your reasoning about why morm was the target TORE

[The Only Real Estel]

You obviously have some good points in there Fordim. But I can't help but go back to my two theories of either Spm, phantom, & SoN or SpM, Fordim, & SoN. Of the first one, all of the ones in question were actually innocent, though I came to the conclusion that phantom was most likely innocent and did not vote for him. Of the second one, at least two are innocent, maybe three. I put a great deal of thought behind both of these, and had more than enough evidence (I thought), but neither of them have proved even close to right. So we have to be very careful with who we vote for this time, we can ill afford to lynch someone because we think we have enough evidence. How we can be sure that we have enough evidence I'm not exactly sure, but it is vital to be sure this time.

Originally posted by Fordim:

By the way, I think that you have hit the nail right on the head with your reasoning about why morm was the target TORE

And perhaps they were trying to implicate me as well with one swoop, given that I was #2 on mormegil's list in post #292 (page 8). It is unfortunate for me that mormegil never explained my position on his list like I asked him to, I was entirely confident that I could provide satisfactory reasons for anything that was bothering him, but since he never explained as I invited him to we'll never know why he suspected me - & I'll never have a chance to give my reasons either. But I think that since he never mentioned me again & ended up voting for Sauce (who was #6 on his list) he most likely changed his suspect list around a good deal & just didn't post it.

I suppose I am going to have to trust Fordim with the fate of the village. I am not sure of his innocene, but I am more sure of it than I am of others. Add to that that both Saucey & morm seemed sure of it (to name a few), I am going to go ahead & trust him unless I find his reasoning suspect. I think those who would truly like to see the wolves defeated should do the same.

Originally posted by Fordim:

Foolish wolves, you should have killed me when you had the chance. Poor morm though....

This is something that still makes me leery of you. Why would any wolf leave you alive for this long? Last night I thought for sure that if you were innocent you would not survive the night, & yet here you are...I wonder.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Why would any wolf leave you alive for this long?

Because I voted for Kuru on DAY one and have never believed in much or any of what he said. AND I was the first to posit and outline the "quiet wolf" theory AND I voted for Holby yesterday.

If I had been killed in the night and proven innocent, would you have any doubt of who the wolves were??

or

You are a wolf and I have fallen for your ploys making me your perfect patsy. I find this hard to believe simply because the only allies I can see existing with either you or Kuru are the quiet wolves I've now implicated.

or

on a very outside chance, TORE and Kuru are both wolves, and I have selected an innocent quiet wolf to go after (Holby). This is very hard to believe given my interpretation of the evidence above, and the voting records of each. Still, it's a possibility...if only an extremely remote one.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Well...what a sad predicament we are in. If we don't play it right, this is our last day as a village. If we lynch an innocent now, the wolves will win. I have voted wrong every single time.

At this point, I will tentatively agree with Fordim. What he's saying makes sense...
but TORE makes a good point, too: what wolf would leave him alive this long?
It's too early at this point for me to formulate a complete opinion.

And I have to apologize for my absence yesterDAY. I was off visiting relatives in a nearby village. I barely had a moment to myself all day long. So I was unable to make it here. I'm very sorry.

[Kuruharan]

Because I voted for Kuru on DAY one

-Fordim post #332

It depends on what you mean by “voted for me.”

That having been said, I am going to cast my vote against

++SaucepanMan

-Fordim post #59

You voted to hang Saucepan Man on DAY ONE. That was before I started arguing against him. That makes it kind of hard to figure out what you mean by “voted for me” because you did not vote with me or against me that DAY.

[Shelob]

Interesting theory Fordim...except for these:

>> "on DAY 1 they both cast meaningless votes (Holby for Az) and Shelob for an already doomed Evisse"

I voted first for Evisse...and the only person I knew might vote the same way was Saucepan Man...how could I have voted for 'an already doomed' person if they had no votes against them? It was only after Saucepan Man and Kuru voted that the votes rolled in for Evisse...

>> "So not only are they both suddenly against the ideas, without a shred of explanation, but Shelob is now using support of the plan as a reason to lynch Evisse."

I went over this with Saucepan Man

I still think that the 'short-list' idea is inheirently wrong, maybe it's not flawed as I first saw it to be but something about it is just not right...as to the 'seer-protection' plan I still think that the idea has some merit, clearly it doesn't work if it's first suggested in the game but I think that it, or a variation of it, could still be potentially usefull

...secondly you said
"then ended up voting for Evisse (an innocent) on the basis of my reasoning that those supporting that proposal were to be suspected"
What I did was use your usefull list as a summary of behavours so that I could post before being dragged off...what I actually said was
"Out of all the behavious and tendencies I saw there the most suspicious to me is agreeing with what either was or will be clear to everyone (ie: the the plans are flawed) but still wishing to use them"
...I disagreed with one, and so didn't want to use it, and didn't mind the other, so didn't mind using it...Evisse disliked both but didn't mind using both...it was that behaour that I found suspicious...not the fact that she supported the idea...

(both from previous posts of mine)

Isn't it convenient how you 'forgot' about those posts?


Now...on to TORE's plan

"This is something that still makes me leery of you. Why would any wolf leave you alive for this long? Last night I thought for sure that if you were innocent you would not survive the night, & yet here you are...I wonder."

I have had similar suspicions myself...at first Fordim drew a lot of attention, never enough to be lynched...but enough that once his innocence seemed proven people gave him little to no more real thought and turned instead upon the other 'loudmouths'...Were he a werewolf this would be wonderful--a risk well worth the reward...were he innocent then once he was thus 'proven' innocent the werewolves would likely want to get rid of him because he could only harm them (he would no longer draw attention away from them and in his death the villagers would learn nothing new because they already knew he was innocent)...

Also, looking back on it, Fordim's post saying

"At the risk of hubris I rather suspect that I might have been the beneficiary of our brave guardian's aid that night."

makes me rather nervous...When first I read it I thought that his reasoning was sound and that it makes sense...but if the werewolves had tried to kill him once it is likely they would have tried again...esp. once they got the Guardian out of the picture...but now that he has not yet died I begin to feel that the above mentioned post was meant to make us trust that the guardian had saved him...but perhaps poor Firefoot had saved another and a werewolf was trying to buy another point of innocence (for clearly the Guardian could neither dispute nor confirm this assumption with out announcing themselves to theworld and to the werewolves)

And Fordim was not the only one to make this assumption...Mormegil, innocent Mormegil, said:

"I honestly feel that I was saved by the guardian last night. I say this because who else has been as vocal as I against those who are most suspicious."

This reasoning makes as much sense as Fordim's does and has since been supported by Mormegil's rather gruesome death...



I feel that I had more to say...but I got called off to clean the kitchen and can't remember now...oh well, you'll hear of it when I think of it...

[Holbytlass]

In response to Shelob sounding like me, if we were both wolves, we would make an effort to sound different when we agreed on something.

I said it probably wouldn't be a good idea to use the 'seer protection plan' AFTER it had been proven that the plan would actually point out the seer. How is that wolvish not to use something that would hurt our seer? A wolf would want to keep using the plan, like Fordim.

I did state a 'short-list' with Phantom and SaucepanMan, I was echoing pretty much everbody, cause at that time they WERE the main suspicious ones.
I voted for Azalia with the coin-toss because it was so early in the game that I didn't want to bandwagon. If anything, I slept guilt free the following night after it had been discovered that not only was Evisse innocent, she was the seer! That has been my only guilt free night. I voted for SoN to save myself and I thought he was a wolf. I voted for SpM twice till his death and I thought he was a wolf.

The funniest thing about Fordim now gunning after me is him calling me the 'smart wolf'. Anyone who has ever come into my shop or has had dealings with me in the past knows that smarts, quick-witted and fast-thinking are not my strong suits. Therefore, I am a little flattered about Fordim's 'sort-of' compliment. On the flip side, anyone he thinks is also a wolf ought to be highly offended.

Since Fordim has brought up the subject of intelligence, if I am the 'smart wolf' then he is the 'Alpha brillinat genius wolf'.
It is Fordim who thought of the 'short-list and 'seer protection plan' in the first place. If the village went for it, the seer would be pointed out, and innocents could easily be put on the list to be voted against. If the village didn't go for it, the Fordim still looks good because he was just trying to help. Sure there was alittle suspicion but there is none now.
It is only Fordim that TGWBS suspected and he got killed. Fordim is brilliant enough to know that someone would point out the 'obviuos' frame-up and could possibly get away with a double-bluff, and he seemingly has.

It is Fordim that switched gears to the quiet group, I still agree that there is a 'quiet' wolf but Fordim switched suddenly when he still has a little bit of wiggle room in the 'loud' group. The only thing that differenciates Fordim from everyone else, is that he is the only one saying there is 2 or more in the quiet group.
If we are to believe him, and vote for a quiet villager than there is more of a chance to get an innocent (such as myself) to get lynched and then he and his pack have killed off this village.

I know in a battle of words and wits, I have lost to Fordim even before I started, and if I loose and get lynched it is a loss for the village and a win for the Alpha wolf, Fordim.

[Holbytlass]

Heh-heh, I give a grim chuckle. I see that Shelob has posted almost exactly one hour before me!! IT MUST BE AN OMEN!!
*this is dripping in sarcasm*

[The Only Real Estel]

A few thoughts on my suspicions (if any) on the remaining villagers:

Azaelia of Willowbottom- Hasn’t posted enough for me to be suspicious yet (unless you count being suspicious because of a lack of posting). As far as I can tell she has only posted four times, twice to vote for phantom on days 2 & 3.

Fordim Hedgethistle- I was originally suspicious of both Saucepan Man, SoN, & him; then was suspicious of SpM & him after reexamining SoN’s last theory. Now that SpM is gone & has proven innocent I am having trouble trusting my own methods & feel the need to turn to Fordim since Sauce & Morm (the two latest to die) both thought that he was innocent. Was also defended by Firefoot (along with SpM & I) before her horses were killed & she drowned. Outlined a ‘short list’ of SpM, phantom, & I – with two of those widely-known innocents & the other one I am entirely sure of his innocence. Still, I am under the impression (as was Saucey) that he did this to obviously to have had wolfish intent (unless it’s a sort of double-bluff tactic...).

Holbytlass- A little surprised by the ‘surprising amount of vehemence’ she displayed as described by Fordim above, but generally I haven’t given many of the ‘silent ones’ much thought. Saucepan Man seemed to become convinced of her guilt before he was unfortunately hung, but I’m not entirely sure that I see his reasoning behind that (other than that she voted for him). Fordim’s recent post on her, among other things, I am still considering.

Kuruharan- Was strangely defensive when questioned by only two villagers – Saucey & Firefoot (who both have proved to be innocents) – and that was in the very early going. Strange that he should make such a big deal of two people questioning him, but he did. Still, this did not make me overly suspicious. Has been rather ‘single-minded,’ as the late Saucey put it. Heightened my suspicions a bit when he went a bit overboard on the ‘evidence’ against Saucey. It would seem that he tried to convince the villagers of an innocent’s guilt by overwhelming them with how much evidence he could bring up to support his theory, which would usually point towards someone not having many really strong points to draw upon.

Oddwen- Indicated in post #318 (page 8) that her top three suspects were SpM, Morm, & Holby. SpM & Morm have since proved innocent, but I cannot come close to convicting her on such evidence as this.

Shelob- Voted for Saucepan Man because his evidence seemed to be ‘to well put together.’ I am not sure that I would want to lynch someone on the basis of trying to have an airtight case, unless his or her post included facts that none but a wolf could possibly know... Accused by Fordy in his above post. I am still thinking it over.

The Only Real Estel- I have no reason to suspect myself that I know of.

Originally posted by Shelob:

I still feel strongly that Kuru is a werewolf...but the only argument against him is one based on strategy...Saucepan Man has a few stronger points against him.

You justified voting for SpM instead of Kuru because the only argument against him was based on strategy. I would argue that about the only arguments that hold much water in this ga-er-village are the ones that are based upon ones strategy/patterns/voting record (though the voting record can be easily manipulated as I've said before).

Originally posted by Fordim:

"At the risk of hubris I rather suspect that I might have been the beneficiary of our brave guardian's aid that night."

Originally posted by Shelob:

makes me rather nervous...When first I read it I thought that his reasoning was sound and that it makes sense...but if the werewolves had tried to kill him once it is likely they would have tried again...esp. once they got the Guardian out of the picture...but now that he has not yet died I begin to feel that the above mentioned post was meant to make us trust that the guardian had saved him...but perhaps poor Firefoot had saved another and a werewolf was trying to buy another point of innocence (for clearly the Guardian could neither dispute nor confirm this assumption with out announcing themselves to the world and to the werewolves)

And Fordim was not the only one to make this assumption...Mormegil, innocent Mormegil, said:

"I honestly feel that I was saved by the guardian last night. I say this because who else has been as vocal as I against those who are most suspicious."

This reasoning makes as much sense as Fordim's does and has since been supported by Mormegil's rather gruesome death...

Good point. I would definitly expect the wolves to go right back to Fordim after having failing once - and especially after they had dispatched of Firefoot. If we assume that it was Mormegil who was guarded that night then it all makes perfect sense - the wolves tried to kill morm, couldn't, figured out that Firefoot was most likely the guardian (which she was), killed her, then proceeded to kill morm. This is exactly the way I would expect it to go, but it is clearly not the way it went if the wolves had tried to kill Fordim that night. But of course it is quite possible that Fordim simply thought that he was the one protected that night, & happened to be wrong (or he could be right, for all we know). This whole 'who was guarded' argument really only clears up one thing - that it was most likely not Fordim, & that proves nothing as to his guilt or innocence.

I am going to take a moment to finish reviewing the thread & then I'll post again, but RL is going to keep me from voicing my vote in the morning (as I'd like to, so that I could hear more evidence) so I'll probably have to do it tonight. Alas, to be rushed on what could be the last night to live...

[The Only Real Estel]

Well, as I posted before, RL will keep me away from & out of all discussion tommorrow (Sunday), probably all day, though I might be able to check on the happenings Sunday night (if the village hasn't been razed (sp?) by the wolves by that time). So now I must cast my vote. I am not certain of anyone's guilt, & although I would like to vote for Kuru (partially to avenge Sauce in the same way Kuru suggested we hang Sauce if we hung an innocent Fordim early on) but something within me warns me against it at the moment. The same thing warned me against voting for Evisse, although at least I averted two innocent deaths by voting for her anyway; it warned me not to vote against phantom, which I didn't; and, at the last second, it warned me not to vote against Sauce. The last one startled me, &, since it was so last second, I ignored it. This time I will not. My vote goes to ++ Shelob, & if she is guilty than perhaps I will be more sure about Kuru. Though I am wondering why we haven't seen any more of him then we have lately...

[Kuruharan]

Though I am wondering why we haven't seen any more of him then we have lately...

I've been waiting for something to happen. It hasn't yet, but if I say any more about it, then it might not happen. (Although, it might not happen anyway.)

In any case, it is worth waiting till tomorrow to see if it does. Besides, if I said anything at the moment, I wouldn't be believed (and probably shouldn't just yet. )

I'm going to wait on voting until the morning.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Oh dear TORE, you have gone and forced my hand here, and not precisely the direction I wanted it to go. With only one more innocent than there are wolves (4 to 3), all the innocents are going to have to vote for the same person. So, much as I wanted to vote for Holby I will have to vote now for:

++SHELOB

Of course, you could be the loudmouthed wolf -- something I've not dismissed yet -- but as I still think there may not be a loudmouthed wolf, and given that we are at the point where someone is going to have to trust in someone else, I am willing to follow your lead in this.

And may god have mercy on me...

[Holbytlass]

I agree the innocents have to stick together, I hope you are right in this vote.
But I think maybe so, on re-reading especially Fordim's accusations against me and Shelob, it points to Shelob sticking with me, the old follow along with an innocent routine. And Fordim, you should be glad TORE has forced your hand away from me, I am innocent. ++SHELOB

[Oddwen]

Well, it would appear that the wolves are laying in wait to force their hand.

Which I'm willing to bet means that there's been no vote for an innocent.

++SHELOB

[Kuruharan]

Hmm…I was hoping for a little bit more of a selection here, perhaps accompanied by a little bit more argument. Instead we have everybody making one choice opposed by dead silence.

I guess I’ll go along with the one choice and authorize a lynching.

++ SHELOB

EDIT: Cross-posted with Oddwen.

[Shelob]

Thanks ever so much.

I bet it's not worth it with just half an hour left to this day to try and convince the remaining villagers of my innocence (and I really don't have the time anyway as I'm supposed to be baking a cake.) But I do warn you all that this is a mistake...It is not for me for whom you should cast your vote, but for one who has played the part of werewolf better than I ever could...with that I cast my vote for ++FORDIM

[Shelob]

Wish I had seen those earlier Oddwen and Kuru...

Fare thee well my friends.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Majority reached, so voting is over (with a few moments to spare; goodness!)

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I agree with everyone else. And it's not as if my vote would really make any difference anyway, since I believe there is a majority.

so I vote for ++Shelob

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Only one stray vote this time, and that was cast by she whom all others suspected. Or did they? Maybe it was just the sheer reality of the numbers which forced the villagers to vote this way in such a strong manner. Whatever had happened this day, Shelob was going to die this evening.

The accusation would have seemed laughable to any impartial onlooker; the story-teller was such a sweet young thing. How could she, of all villagers, be a werewolf? Well, there were not too many villagers left to accuse.....

Sobbing quietly, she was led to the gallows. Please don't kill me she muttered feebly. And considering recent events, the townspeople almost imagined letting her off the hook, so abysmally wrong they had been recently. But the 'rules of the game' dictated that someone must die; they had to save Storyland. It was the girl who had previously personified the spirit of the queer little village that was to disappear forever.

And so the noose went around her neck; and her eyes blazed. She had bluffed and she had failed. Used to getting her own way, the girl had banked on crying her way out of the situation. But the villagers, though teary-eyed themselves, were not to be stopped from fulfilling their duty; and Shelob realised that she had made a great mistake.

Get this off me! she screamed. You're going to pay for this! A madness was in her eyes and it startled the villagers.

You will get what's coming to you, you wretched....people!"

Terrified, the excecutioner pulled the lever, and the girl suffered the break that would kill her, but not before beginning the horrifying process of turning into a werewolf. Her huge teeth jutted out and her eyes were like devils to look at, dying though she was.

The villagers screamed for a good couple of minutes as Shelob writhed in agony. When she finally hung still, the people felt their spirits lift truly for the first time in several days and they cheered long and loud.

They had finally killed a werewolf.


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
Oddwen
The Only Real Estel

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2
the phantom (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 3
Firefoot (Guardian) - drowned in blood by werewolves on NIGHT 4
The Saucepan Man (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 4
mormegil (Villager) - sacrificed on the kirk by werewolves on NIGHT 5
Shelob (Werewolf) - lynched by villagers on DAY 5

Score:

Werewolves: 2
Villagers: 4


NIGHT 6 has started, now that it is about 4PM GMT (that's 11AM EST) and (10AM Central). It will end in 24 hours or sooner if all night-time business is reported to me by then.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The villagers awoke with a slight spring in their step, after all they had killed a werewolf yesterday. But apprehension was still rife; they guessed that the werewolves had not been idle during the night. Anxiously, they rushed to the Town Hall. They were straightaway surprised by the lack of numbers present.

Four? they questioned. That's not too many. And they waited for longer than usual. The Sun was getting higher in the sky but still no-one joined them. Where were Holbytlass and Azaelia?

The villagers marched off to the cobbler's little house first. There were no signs of a struggle. The front door was locked. They broke the lock, had a quick look around and, seeing nothing out of the ordinary, stepped back outside.

Hmm...

So off to Azaelia's house they went. It was just as small and just as homely. Fitting places really, for two such delightful villagers to live in. But Azaelia's house was now a mess. Even from the outside, it seemed to cry of murder. So inside the four villagers went. And they were met by a spine-chilling sight.

A wolf lay dead and bloodied just in the doorway. It had been shot through the heart with a quite huge arrow, and blood had poured out of the wound for a long time, as the surrounding green carpet was now a very deep dark red.

But at the other end of the floor there was a much more heartbreaking sight. The torso of Azaelia was lying against a door, a shocked expression on her face. Her limbs had been torn off and were nowhere to be seen, but a crossbow lay by her side. She had killed one werewolf just before being ripped apart by the other werewolf, and she had died with honour.

The villagers now realised that Holbytlass was the second werewolf, and that only one remained at large in the village.


Living:

Fordim Hedgethistle
Kuruharan
Oddwen
The Only Real Estel

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2
the phantom (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 3
Firefoot (Guardian) - drowned in blood by werewolves on NIGHT 4
The Saucepan Man (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 4
mormegil (Villager) - sacrificed on the kirk by werewolves on NIGHT 5
Shelob (Werewolf) - lynched by villagers on DAY 5
Holbytlass (Werewolf) - slain by the Hunter on NIGHT 6
Azaelia of Willowbottom (Hunter) - ripped apart by a werewolf on NIGHT 6

Score:

Werewolf: 1
Villagers: 3


DAY 6 has started, now that it is about 3:40 PM GMT (that's 10:40 AM EST) and (9:40 AM Central). It will end in 24 hours or sooner if a majority vote is reached by then.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Aha!! Foul fiend Holby!

I had written the following post before seeing that our brave hunter saved us from this wolf. Now read on, fellow innocents, and let's lynch the remaining beast:

Again, dear brethren, if you are reading this, I have survived the night. Once more, in hope of my survival, I have begun this post immediately after the hanging of the wolf.

Kuru, for what it is worth, I no longer think that you are wolf, only an innocent patsy. That is, of course, if you are still alive…

The Only Real Estel and Holbytlass, on the other hand, you are both fuzzy monsters, and clumsy ones at that. Your little charade yesterday of handing over to us your companion has not worked. TORE: your heavy-pawed attempt to save Holby by forcing me to vote for Shelob was about as subtle as a sledgehammer. And Holby, your triumphant crow about your own innocence as you offered up your sacrificial victim rang just as hollow. I’m no fool, I know that even if you lost one wolfish-ally you would still be in charge today. In fact, you were probably hoping that after giving up Shelob you’d have a shot at getting the Cursed Villager to replace her. Too bad that failed…

And I’m also not fooled by your attempt to discredit me: “Look everyone,” I can already hear you saying, “Fordim wanted to vote for Holby, who is clearly innocent because she voted for Shelob. It’s a good thing that TORE and Holby pointed you all in the right direction…Fordim would have led you astray: he must be the wolf!” The fact that I am alive this DAY is demonstrable proof of your strategy…

As I did yesterday, however, I shall allow the wolves to speak for themselves. I have already demonstrated Holby’s guilt, so all that remains is to show up TORE for the monster that he is using his own words.

When the game began, his response to my plans was virtually identical to that of Shelob and Holby:

While I see your point on the short list, Fody, I think that I would also be more for the seer protection idea than the short list. I think anyone that votes for an innocent to be lynched is automatically elevated to the top of everyone's suspect list, though they might not announce it for everyone to hear/see. And pretty much the same goes for anyone that didn't/couldn't vote, although that's sometimes based more on the villager's 'real life' circumstances.

Just like his counterparts, of course, he suddenly decided that he did not like the plan when the other loudmouths turned on it. Just minutes before Holby weighs in on the idea, TORE writes:

edit: I am now split on the seer idea. I do see how it would help the villagers (that seems pretty obvious), but I also see 'short guy's' point about how it could potentially undermine some of the basic guesswork and sleuthing that are involved in the four-letter-word-that-starts-with-'g.'

Having done his wolfish flip-flop, the first targets he names are all loudmouths:

Whether we end up implementing Fordim's plan or not seems to remain to be seen. I'm caught in the middle of it myself (as I've said before). If it is to be a gauge for us to discern werewolves who are reluctant to set it up, we should be at least casting a glance or two in the direct of the guy who be short. He has been rather adament about not liking the changes, so that could be looked upon as suspicious. At the same time I realize that he could have perfectly impeccable motives for not liking the new plan--as I said I myself have reservations but neither do I suspect myself.

As to Mormegil, I think we can be fairly certain that we know absolutely nothing about his innocence or guiltiness. One cannot proclaim him guilty simply because of his profession (one could argue that because my business has fallen on hard times that makes me a desperate man [or wolf], so our choices of employment cannot realy be used against us).

Two of those three were killed by wolves after it became clear that there would emerge no clear consensus to lynch them; and in both cases I was the intended target. tgwbs was killed to stir things up around me; morm was killed so that I could stay alive, allowing TORE and Holby to stage their little “Let’s-rally-round-Fordim-and-prove-our-innocence” dance. But back to TORE’s posts…

As the first DAY wore on, he distances himself from my plans (again, just like Holby – something which The Phantom noted) and begins to focus on a mixture of loudmouths and innocents who were lynched very early on:

then I should be following Saucey's reasoning and vote for Evisse, SoN, or Fordim.

He goes on to vote for Evisse, saying at the time:

If you are indeed innocent my attention will turn to SpM & tp.

Really quite brilliant, I think; I doff my cap. At one fell swoop you vote for an innocent who is already clearly doomed, following the logic – as you are clear to point out – of another innocent. You then state that “if” the innocent is found innocent you will have grounds to suspect two other innocents! And we all remember what happened after this: the loudmouths got out of control and, quel surprise, of the five people you mention in these posts, four are dead within a couple of days… I also note your care in not going after our resident loose cannon Kuru, which was SpM’s one real mistake.

TORE then goes very quiet for almost a full day before putting up a long post in which he details his two theories:

I now wonder, what if both of their sides are wrong? I have gotten two theories into my head that I cannot get out – Saucepan Man, phantom, & SoN are wolves; or Saucepan Man, Fordim, & SoN are wolves.

Again, putting attention on loudmouthed innocents, and not going after the wolves’ patsy Kuru. And he bangs away in this vein for the next while:

I do not think I will vote for phantom because Saucepan's seeming pardon of Fordim has me uneasy and makes me want to substitue Fordim for phantom in my theory (because it would work just as well that way as with the phantom in it)

That night, however, he votes to lynch Sono, and does so at the very last minute. The following DAY he gives us this shocking explanation for having waited so long to vote, but only after another long silence which he broke only once to explain that he would have to delay answering the question put forth about the lateness of his vote:

Yes Fordim, you did prevent me from tying things yesterday. I had hoped for a double lynching. Yes, I said that right. And yes, I am going to get some strange looks for admitting this, but here my reasoning. I was 90% sure of both SoN's & SpM's guilt, so I saw a great opportunity to lynch two wolves with one noose, especially since we are beginning to run out of time. I was hoping that Fordim would vote for Sauce and I could then tie it, but when he didn't, I saw there was little reason for me to hold my vote any longer.

Frankly, I’m ashamed that I did not see this for the self-serving claptrap that it was at the time and zero in on this fiendishly clever wolf a lot earlier…

By this point, TORE has hit his stride and he continues on with the same basic strategy. Sometimes he supports The Phantom, sometimes he supports The Saucepan Man; he stops going after Kuru – his patsy – and I – whose innocence is largely now accepted, and concentrates entirely on keeping everyone’s attention on the two biggest loudmouths.

And again he is one of the last to vote, this time for Saucy, predicting at the time:

...with Saucey probably going to vote for phantom & Shelob probably going to vote for Saucey.

Again, I doff my cap: brilliant! “Hey, he based his whole voting strategy on the assumption that Shelob would vote for Sauce and she didn’t! They clearly can’t both be wolves!”

And just in case you missed it, TORE is careful to point it out just a few posts later;

I am somewhat suprised that Shelob has voted the way that she has, especially given that she voted for Saucepan Man last DAY…If Shelob voted for Sauce last time I would expect her to follow through with it this time...unless she isn't following through because Sauce would be gone if she voted for him this time.

The next day, in a long post(279), TORE begins by saying that there’s merit to my quiet wolf theory, entertains for a moment that I might be right about Shelob and Holby and then goes on to incriminate Sauce and me. This same strategy is present in all his posts through the next DAY…

And I also hear you about specific statements, that is why I am trying to chew on SoN's broader theory of you (SpM) & Fordim - with the help of some specific statements.

No mention of the quiet wolves, of course, and no dangerous gestures toward the patsy Kuru. It all culminated, of course, with his vote to lynch Sauce, this time actually past the voting deadline…

Which brings me back to the events of the last DAY, which I have already commented on above. The only thing that needs to be mentioned here is that on every DAY, The Only Real Estel was either the very last, or among the very last villagers to vote. Not so yesterday. Yesterday, he could not vote fast enough. Yesterday, he was the first to cast a vote, thus forcing my hand. This cunning wolf – who, throughout the game always wanted to “wait and see” to “weigh his options” – chose to cast the first vote on the one DAY on which casting the first vote determines the outcome of the vote.

Ladies and Gentlemen, may I present to you the final two wolves:

Holbytlass, and The Only Real Estel. I would suggest we lynch them in that order.

[Kuruharan]

This has been a strange ga...I mean village.

I'm going to wait and see what Estel has to say for himself before posting any theories. Perhaps Oddwen would also have something to say.

(Has anybody else noticed that when I play the village is reduced to a ghost town or at least always grinds out to the very last couple of people? )

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

To my fellow Innocents, Oddwen and Kuru:

Victory is in our grasp. As a follow-up to my long post I wanted to clarify a couple of points. As I said above, I wrote that post during the NIGHT not knowing, of course, that the wolves would get our hunter (praise her with great praise!!) and that she would take one of them down. This has changed things somewhat.

First, I find it impossible to deny TORE's guilt knowing that Holby was a wolf. It was only his sudden vote for Shelob yesterday that saved Holby. The connections that I found between his voting and posting strategy and hers now makes it a lock.

A special note to Kuru: as I have said twice now, I wrote my above post during the NIGHT and before our hunter (praise her with great praise) brought down Holby (clever wolf). At that time I thought we would be dealing with two wolves today, and I deemed it in my own interest to portray you in a poor light as the "patsy". I did this in anticipation of their next move, which would have been to get Oddwen and I to vote for you. With me apparently "on their side" in the Shelob vote they would have figured they could get me to vote for you next...and by painting you as the "patsy" I was hoping to given them enough room in my argument to try and argue that your "patsy" behaviour was clear evidence fo wolfishness, and thus try to shift my vote away from them and toward you. I was going to use this attempt to prove demonstrably that they were the wolves. But now, it is no longer needed...

To be clear, then: I don't think of you as their patsy, only as their unwilling dupe -- just as I have been their unwilling dupe, and as were all the loudmouths, may they rest in peace.

Much as I would like to lynch TORE immediately and be done with it, I will force myself to hold off on voting until I have seen the others post. It will also be nice watching that wolf try to wriggle and squirm his way out of the noose.

All praise our great hunter Azaelia! Priase her with great praise!!

[The Only Real Estel]

Much as changed since I last posted .
I am afraid that I have to leave for a previous engagment, which Fordim will no doubt find suspicious.

I will post again tonight.

[Oddwen]

Well, this is a turn of events and no mistake.

If we still had a bard, I would ask him to sing now the lay of "No-limbed Zali and the Werewolf of Doom", but I guess I can't. Eglerio! (or is that "praise them"?)

TORE has been niggling on my suspicions of late - Fordim, thank you for your post(s) that have cemented my suspicions.

I won't be on until tomorrow, so I must vote now -

++The Only Real Estel

[Kuruharan]

I was going to apologize for my absence today. There has been a more than adequate amount of lightning about my abode. (There was a cold front parked literally just next to my place. Storms were firing up over and over again just as soon as the last batch had moved off. Most annoying.)

However, I see Estel has not replied in detail yet, so I'll be polite and wait for him.

Where's Oddwen got off to?

(Fordim: It’s okay. )

EDIT: Never mind, cross posted with Oddwen. (As seems to be getting to be my usual habit.)

[The Only Real Estel]

Just a note, I am working on a post but have an absurd 10 minutes time limit that is out of my control . Just so you know I am here & typing...

[The Only Real Estel]

Kuru, for what it is worth, I no longer think that you are wolf, only an innocent patsy. That is, of course, if you are still alive…

What is the reasoning behind the sudden change of thinking?

The Only Real Estel and Holbytlass, on the other hand, you are both fuzzy monsters, and clumsy ones at that. Your little charade yesterday of handing over to us your companion has not worked. TORE: your heavy-pawed attempt to save Holby by forcing me to vote for Shelob was about as subtle as a sledgehammer.

I voted for Shelob because I trusted that you were right in your theory. You seemed equally sure of both Shelob's & Holbytlass's guilt & I was more sure of Shelob's. Knowing that I would not be able to be on in the morning (as I clearly posted), I had to cast my vote when I did - and I cast it for Shelob, hoping that it would clear up something I had been thinking about. After all, we could always lynch Holby next round, I thought.

And Holby, your triumphant crow about your own innocence as you offered up your sacrificial victim rang just as hollow. I’m no fool

The 'crow of innocence' didn't fool anybody, I don't think. I know I still planned on voting for her today.

I know that even if you lost one wolfish-ally you would still be in charge today

Actually, I had thought of the possibility of a Fordim, Shelob, Holby alliance, after you implicated both of them there would be no way in the world that we wouldn't trust you. You could then lead us to lynch the last villager that seperated us from a tie.

And I’m also not fooled by your attempt to discredit me: “Look everyone,” I can already hear you saying, “Fordim wanted to vote for Holby, who is clearly innocent because she voted for Shelob. It’s a good thing that TORE and Holby pointed you all in the right direction…Fordim would have led you astray: he must be the wolf!”

This would indeed be the most clumsy, 'heavy-pawed' tactic on the face of this earth.

The fact that I am alive this DAY is demonstrable proof of your strategy…

Why does this prove anything? You said yourself:

If I had been killed in the night and proven innocent, would you have any doubt of who the wolves were??

Why would that change? I fully expected the wolves to leave you alive & then we could work together to bring down Holby; apparently you are actually bent on bringing the village down, not the wolves.

As I did yesterday, however, I shall allow the wolves to speak for themselves. I have already demonstrated Holby’s guilt, so all that remains is to show up TORE for the monster that he is using his own words.

The only way that this would happen would be if my words were twisted...

Just like his counterparts, of course, he suddenly decided that he did not like the plan when the other loudmouths turned on it

I gave a good reason. I was basing my partial support of the theory on totally faulty & completely ignorant evidence. He who can not change his mind in need is in fetters. Besides, I seem to remember quite a few other people who have proved to be innocent that 'switched lanes'.

(Posted by me, reposted by Fordim in an effort to prove that I wolfishly flip-flopped:

While I see your point on the short list, Fody, I think that I would also be more for the seer protection idea than the short list. I think anyone that votes for an innocent to be lynched is automatically elevated to the top of everyone's suspect list, though they might not announce it for everyone to hear/see. And pretty much the same goes for anyone that didn't/couldn't vote, although that's sometimes based more on the villager's 'real life' circumstances.

What is wrong again with this reasoning? The only thing that you said was that I changed my mind...

Having done his wolfish flip-flop, the first targets he names are all loudmouths

I've already re-mentioned my reasoning behind the switch. Funny that you did not fully represent the facts by posting both sides of the story.

Whether we end up implementing Fordim's plan or not seems to remain to be seen. I'm caught in the middle of it myself (as I've said before). If it is to be a gauge for us to discern werewolves who are reluctant to set it up, we should be at least casting a glance or two in the direct of the guy who be short. He has been rather adament about not liking the changes, so that could be looked upon as suspicious. At the same time I realize that he could have perfectly impeccable motives for not liking the new plan--as I said I myself have reservations but neither do I suspect myself.

I belive it was the innocent SpM who originally brought up that your 'plans' might be really just a gauge, I expounded on this theory.

As to Mormegil, I think we can be fairly certain that we know absolutely nothing about his innocence or guiltiness. One cannot proclaim him guilty simply because of his profession (one could argue that because my business has fallen on hard times that makes me a desperate man [or wolf], so our choices of employment cannot realy be used against us).

I fail to see why posting in the defense of someone early on is being used against me...

TORE and Holby to stage their little “Let’s-rally-round-Fordim-and-prove-our-innocence” dance

I thought that because SpM, Morm, & Firefoot (to name a few) considered you to be innocent I could trust you to help guide the innocent villagers to the right decisions. Obviously Holby and any other wolf would vote for Shelob after your 'all the innocents must post together' bit - who in their right mind would vote otherwise after that? But perhaps my trust has been misplaced after all...

Posted by me:

If you are indeed innocent my attention will turn to SpM & tp.

Posted by Fordy:

Really quite brilliant, I think; I doff my cap. At one fell swoop you vote for an innocent who is already clearly doomed, following the logic – as you are clear to point out – of another innocent. You then state that “if” the innocent is found innocent you will have grounds to suspect two other innocents! And we all remember what happened after this: the loudmouths got out of control and, quel surprise, of the five people you mention in these posts, four are dead within a couple of days… I also note your care in not going after our resident loose cannon Kuru, which was SpM’s one real mistake

I would suspect anyone who vicously attacked an innocent, & any innocent villager should have looked at those two in that particular situation.

TORE then goes very quiet for almost a full day before putting up a long post in which he details his two theories

If I remember right this was on Sunday, a day that I specifically posted and said I would not be able to post on until late, if then. And yet this is being used against me?

(referring to my SpM, SoN, tp theory):

Again, putting attention on loudmouthed innocents, and not going after the wolves’ patsy Kuru. And he bangs away in this vein for the next while

SoN had cast suspicions on himself by posting infrequently, how does that qualify him as a 'loud-mouthed' innocent?

Posted by me:

I do not think I will vote for phantom because Saucepan's seeming pardon of Fordim has me uneasy and makes me want to substitue Fordim for phantom in my theory (because it would work just as well that way as with the phantom in it)

Saucepan Man switched lanes to declare you innocent based on the same evidence that he was using to suggest you were guilty. How could I not be suspicious?

That night, however, he votes to lynch Sono, and does so at the very last minute. The following DAY he gives us this shocking explanation for having waited so long to vote, but only after another long silence which he broke only once to explain that he would have to delay answering the question put forth about the lateness of his vote

I voted to lynch him for the 'shocking reasons' that I have already posted before. And I am sorry that I couldn't show up sooner, I seem to remember RL sideling you at least once as well (forcing you into an early vote for the departed phantom)?

Frankly, I’m ashamed that I did not see this for the self-serving claptrap that it was at the time and zero in on this fiendishly clever wolf a lot earlier…

I still don't see it as being self-serving claptrap...

Posted by me:

...with Saucey probably going to vote for phantom & Shelob probably going to vote for Saucey

Again, I doff my cap: brilliant! “Hey, he based his whole voting strategy on the assumption that Shelob would vote for Sauce and she didn’t! They clearly can’t both be wolves!”

I would hardly consider that to be good evidence for us to not be wolves.

I am somewhat suprised that Shelob has voted the way that she has, especially given that she voted for Saucepan Man last DAY…If Shelob voted for Sauce last time I would expect her to follow through with it this time...unless she isn't following through because Sauce would be gone if she voted for him this time.

I was taking some stock in Kuru's theory. Forgive me.

The next day, in a long post(279), TORE begins by saying that there’s merit to my quiet wolf theory, entertains for a moment that I might be right about Shelob and Holby and then goes on to incriminate Sauce and me. This same strategy is present in all his posts through the next DAY…

Remembered SoN's theory. I thought I would have a better chance of bagging a wolf in the 'loud' group, since the quite ones had posted so little to work with.

Which brings me back to the events of the last DAY, which I have already commented on above. The only thing that needs to be mentioned here is that on every DAY, The Only Real Estel was either the very last, or among the very last villagers to vote. Not so yesterday. Yesterday, he could not vote fast enough. Yesterday, he was the first to cast a vote, thus forcing my hand. This cunning wolf – who, throughout the game always wanted to “wait and see” to “weigh his options” – chose to cast the first vote on the one DAY on which casting the first vote determines the outcome of the vote.

Strange that you have not been posting my specific explanations for voting/disappearing as I have. And why does it bother you that we lynched Shelob instead of Holby? There would have been plenty of time to get her today, as I had planned on doing - but good Az took her out to shorten things for us.

I'm way past my time limit. Since Shelob was a wolf I suspected Kuru because of Shelob's absurd 'reasoning' behind voting for SpM instead of Kuru. Now that Fordim has attacked an innocent villager, I am considering him as well. And there is still this inner feeling in me that is telling me not to vote for Kuru...I will vote tommorrow, Oddwen, I'm sorry that you've fallen for this. Lynching me will cause the wolves to lay waste to the village, do not lynch me!

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Oddwen: quiet, yes, but she was the very first villager to draw attention to Holbytlass. Could be the cleverest wolf of all.

Kuruharan: loud and determined to get SpM, but no demonstrable proof of any kind of co-ordinated effort with the proven wolves. Could be a wolf.

Estel: loud but also oddly quiet; having a hand in the lynchings but never really taking a lead role; could be the victim of circumstance and bad-timing in his votes, particularly yesterday, but that's an awful lot of bad-luck...

++THE ONLY REAL ESTEL

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I didn't mention before, but am I right in thinking that the villagers must find the wolf today or all is lost?