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Old 10-07-2010, 03:00 PM   #121
Legate of Amon Lanc
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
If I know Shasta he would have left at least one clue for us to the one dream he had. When he was the ranger he always left behind clues to his protections. Now the problem is just finding it.
You can try, if you wish. I didn't spot anything this far, at least on first sight; though I am basically rereading the thread now so there is lot of time still...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozban View Post
Legate I have been voting in synch with my conscience. Eventhough my vote can't accomplish anything, I won't hide in the crowd, I'm not such a hypocrite. I'm not afraid to speak up and fight for what i believe.
Fair enough. Of course if people vote like that, it is okay. But Wolves do that too, or a certain kind of them, if they want to seem "noble". I have no problem imagining you as one of that sort - also given that you have never suspected Shasta and Lottie in the first place, not by the slightest bit. It has two edges - you can be either just really having your own mind and seeing things correctly from the very beginning, in that case, fine. But it can also be that you knew they were innocent - because you are not innocent yourself. I don't have any 100% suspicion about you or anything like that, but of the non-Shasta votes, yours is one that looks the most suspicious to me. So I will be watching you carefully.
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Old 10-07-2010, 03:13 PM   #122
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Yep, go Ranger! And ouch for the lynch.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
If I know Shasta he would have left at least one clue for us to the one dream he had. When he was the ranger he always left behind clues to his protections. Now the problem is just finding it.
Unless I'm overlooking something, he didn't talk about or suspect anybody very much except for myself (for reasons which baffle me more than ever now that his role is known), Lottie (defending himself against her) and Greenie (for saying Lottie sounded genuine). Apart from that, he was okay with Nerwen, disagreed with Legate about the cobbler and replied to you about past fake-reveals (the latter more banter than anything else). Nothing that sticks out as a Seer hint to me, so it seems most likely to me he'd dreamed an innocent (possibly Nerwen?) - unless you think he'd dreamed a Pitchwolf and masked the dream behind that bogus case he made against me; which I know he didn't, but obviously I can't prove it.

Speaking of hints, I've got a question for skip:
Quote:
Originally Posted by skip #64
As it stands I might vote Shasta toDay for reasons I'd rather not disclose at this point...
Care to disclose them now, and explain what this was about? For if it wasn't a fake Seer hint (and implying you might have dreamed a Shastawolf) I don't know what it was.
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Old 10-07-2010, 03:27 PM   #123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
You can try, if you wish. I didn't spot anything this far, at least on first sight; though I am basically rereading the thread now so there is lot of time still...
Well my only reaction so far was it doesn't look good for Pitch.

Post 10.

Quote:
It's true, you are, and this very trait is what led me to think you evil when last we met. However, given that you've said that you're stirring up the rest of us here... I believe I'm okay with you, for now, Legate.
"I believe I'm ok" and "for now" doesn't sound like a seer-dream on Legate. Just an innocent stating a general innocent-vibe about someone.

However same post...

Quote:
In other news, I'm finding something slightly off about Pitch. He's only made one post thus far, but as I read it there were points at which I felt he was being awfully... well, the pun is inevitable... agreeable.
Now that's odd, he's quick to point out Pitch's only post and then be "slightly off" about him for being...well Pitch.

His next few posts one is a joke to me about a prior game and then clarifying the hunter role with Wilwa. And entirely agreeing with Nerwen (disagreeing with Legate) about the cobbler business. Nothing seems seer hinty to me.

Post 31.

Quote:
Lottie - That's silly. I clarified a rule for Wilwa. What about that should be worrying? I'll give you a hint - the answer's 'nothing'. And as for being 'nonconfrontational' - I was the first to evidence actual suspicion of a specific person (Pitch, to be precise), so I don't really know where you're getting 'nonconfrontational' from.
The response is to Lottie, but he also points out that he was the first to point any actual suspicion towards anyone and remarks again that the person was Pitch. So I hardly think his Post 10 when he says Pitch was "slightly off" was a bantering, joke suspicion.

Post 33.

Quote:
In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment and most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler). I'm going to try and sleep now - although I don't hold out too much hope considering the dark dankness of this cell.
Least ok with Pitch, most ok with Nerwen. The thing about this post is he provides a reason for being most ok with Nerwen, and continues to repeat suspicion on Pitch for no stated reason.

Post 46.

Quote:
Not really liking Greenie at the moment - mostly for saying Lottie 'feels genuine' when I already pointed out her reasons for suspecting me are bunk.
This would seem to point the possible dream to Lottie and not to Greenie. Greenie's kind of the middle person who got her head stuck into a curfluffle, because Shasta's reasons for not liking Greenie were for what Greenie said about Lottie.

Although the Lottie dream doesn't seem all that probable because Shasta seemed more annoyed that she was suspecting him. Doesn't look much like a dream for Lottie.

Post 58. He quotes a long post from Pitch only to say...

Quote:
Here you are, Pitch. Bolding mine. I've noticed several other points ("Thanks for the advice" sticks out most noticably) as I've read the Day, as well.

I have to vote in a few minutes. I'd prefer not to turn this into Shasta vs. Lottie, but I will if I have to.
Here again it doesn't seemed like his dream was of Lottie, because he specifically says he doesn't want this to turn into "Shasta vs. Lottie." The "I will if I have to" was probably more that he would of course want to save himself if it came to that.

Post 60.

Quote:
++Pitch

I don't like Lottie's contrived reasons to vote for me, but she more often contrives reasons to vote when she's innocent, so I'll leave her alone today. Pitch sticks out as more suspicious to me today - agreeable, doesn't touch on more than the obvious topic of the cobbler, etc.
Make of it what you will, but he seemed stuck on suspicions for Pitch for the entire day. Where Greenie and Lottie he seemed more annoyed with and not particularly suspicious of. And none of the people he said he "liked" didn't seem like very confident "likes" at the time.

Edit: crossed with Pitch. But dinner time for me shall be back late late tonight.
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Old 10-07-2010, 03:28 PM   #124
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Oh dear. Has the Power of the Lord of Waters withdrawn from the Great River that flows beside this accursed isle at last? We have slain the one who could've been most useful for all of us!

But onwards, forwards!

I gotta sleep now but two things I leave for you to discuss if you will.

Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not. I felt that there was a distinct possibility that she was the Seer and that she dreamt of a Shasta-wolf, and as his subsequent reaction did not console me that was the best I could come up with at that point. A mistake, obviously.

But Lottie, I think you should explain to us again why you found Shasta suspicious.

Another thing. I suppose that had Shasta dreamed an innocent the first Night we'd find no clues as to who that was. But if he did dream a wolf, wouldn't he have left something for us should he chance to die? And Shasta's main suspect seem to have been Pitch. Could he have dreamed of him?


Aurë entuluva!


Edit: Xed with a few people including Pitch whose question I've answered.
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Old 10-07-2010, 03:41 PM   #125
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It seems we're getting into this old discussion I haven't seen in a long time. So what is the right thing to do when the vote is more or less clear? Do you go with whom you suspect the most plain and simple whatever the result is going to be ("not being a hypocrite" even if it means that someone whom you think is more innocent than others facing the gallows in real terms will die - but you keep your own posture of integrity) or do you choose from those who are near the chopping block and pick the one you're most suspicious of - even if it isn't your number one suspect - or try to drive the lynch to save the one you think the most innocent of the probable lynchees?

Or, which is even better a question: who would like to pose as someone who is right and self-assuredly denying to take part in the lynching of an innocent? Well, only those who know the one that is going to be lynched in fact is an innocent! I do suspect Boro heavily on his last minute declaration of moral highground - and to a slightly lesser degree also Steve (what Legate said him seemingly being in a hurry). Ozban I'm not so sure about: an idealistic newbie or a calculating wolf? I'd lean towards the former at the moment.

And btw. Legate: I'm quite ready to admit that I did suspect Shasta and voting him with what information I had then was the most reasonable thing to do, wagon or not. I said that I don't like bandwagons, but if the wagoned one is one of the few I'd feel even little confidence in voting for, then I'll vote thus.

And anyway, if half the village votes for someone, then it isn't quite so random Legate seems to think (or would like us to think?). Even if all the wolves were included (which I doubt), it would still leave at least four innocents thinking him suspicious - most probably five or even six (I agree at least one wolf must have bite the chance). So what were you aiming at Legate claiming that randomness? You can't say Shasta wasn't looking suspicious with his odd to and fro with Lottie and "out of the blue" suspicions (made incredibly poorly) on Pitch?

Okay, needs to take a short break... too much coming fore puzzling my mind.

EDIT: x'd with many
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Old 10-07-2010, 03:49 PM   #126
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skip
Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not. I felt that there was a distinct possibility that she was the Seer and that she dreamt of a Shasta-wolf, and as his subsequent reaction did not console me that was the best I could come up with at that point. A mistake, obviously.
OK then, that makes sense... especially as I had the same idea at the time, although her repeated disclaimers about having no proof, possibly being mistaken etc. made me doubt it - but then again, these could have been meant to keep the wolves from guessing her. Then, when you wrote those mysterious lines, I thought it could be you, or at least it was probably one of you two... and together, we got the real Seer lynched in the process. Bigtime failure.
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Old 10-07-2010, 03:57 PM   #127
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I have spent now quite some time with re-reading the thread, here are my conclusions about people based on yesterDay. Then I will see the posts of those who posted meanwhile (since my last post) and then go to sleep. So:

Greenie - she is somewhat, hmm, chaotic, there is very little actually from her, but it seems more like her innocent self. Also when I look at her several times remembered list of four options from yesterDay, I don't think she would post something so self-evident if she was a Wolf, it really looks like a sort of personal thought-process; a real one.

Lottie - I don't know what to think. What I find curious is that people voted Shasta rather than her, as she was definitely far more suspicious than Shasta, who, of course in retrospect, didn't really do anything... I am curious to hear more from her, and what she thinks now that her initial gut-feeling suspect turned out to be the Seer.

Nerwen - Nerwen, a question. Whom would you have voted in case you happened to be around earlier? I know it doesn't matter so much anymore and you can make up whatever you wish, but anyway I would like to hear the answer...

Nogrod - like I said, somewhat uncomfortable with him. It is also interesting that in the beginning (post 42), he wanted to be careful about making conclusions about Shasta and Lottie, but later he basically straightaway switched into suspecting Shasta (while leaving Lottie be, saying she gets innocently lynched usually, which is true, though).

Pitchwife - I am wondering about him. I do not find him any particularly innocent, but neither particularly suspicious... one thing seems clear to me: he and Boro are not the Wolves together. Unless there is some Cobbler-signal between them in this, the matter is just very untransparent to me still. Anyway, he seems reasonable in some way... his analysis of Lottie and Shasta close to the end of yesterDay seems genuine. Certainly not my first-hand pick now or anything like that.

Skip - like I said, somewhat "riding the tidal wave". His first post repeats mostly things already said - that won't be bad by itself, but he is hardly constructive (although it's possible he doesn't have time or strength for it, but still); later he is sort of submarinish and his vote for Shasta in a kind of "who cares" manner. Lost in the crowd. Might be he just had a lot to do, but...

Glirdy - okay, here is another of our rather suspicious people. Firstly, he is agreeable ("thanks to Legate for starting the conversation and to Pitch for questioning him") and at the same time (as already hinted in the previously mentioned quote) lays down some basis for suspicion, possibly in case if later it came handy. And he does the same for Pitch too. And joins the sort of suspicion bandwaggon on Shasta and Lottie. Really, honestly?
If there is somebody really suspicious now to me, it is him.

Inzil is another peculiar person. Very, sort of, unreadable. Hard to say anything concrete about him. Mostly he says "okay, thanks, nice" to people who clarify something which they said before to him - it happened two or three times. Sort of, well, it just catches one's attention that he is doing mostly that, of all things. Also, he says it will be too easy to see a Wolf among Shasta and Lottie, and he straightaway dismisses the possibility of them being Wolves both. Just seems a bit too sure, in a similar matter to Ozban. The point is that he does not even question the possibility of their wolfishness on the basis of "no, I think it's just banter" (like Ozzy did) or something concrete, but just "it's too easy". I mean, what kind of a reasoning is that?

Of Boro I can't say much. He remains a questionmark for me, which is slightly unnerving, but well - hope to see more from him in the future, this far he is in no-idea cathegory.

Similar with wilwa, with the fact that generally her actions seem innocentish to me.

Of Ozban I spoke above basically in my previous post... I think he has generally sort of good style, it just remains to be seen whether he is hiding fur behind some mask or not.

And Eönwë... his only and rather late appearence didn't say much, he could have been genuinely clueless innocent or just a Wolf who was also genuinely clueless as well, since he hasn't been around all day. So hope to see more from him still.

Now on to all those I x-ed with...
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Old 10-07-2010, 04:09 PM   #128
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I've been a bit under the weather all day, so I'm going to bed now and find out whether I'm going to come down with the flu or not. See you tomorrow (hopefully with a clearer head).
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Old 10-07-2010, 04:22 PM   #129
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Well, I need to take back my words on Boro - or then he is the worst fellow-pusher I've ever seen (the stuff was there anyway, and someone would have inevitably found it, so why not do it oneself?).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Lottie - I don't know what to think. What I find curious is that people voted Shasta rather than her, as she was definitely far more suspicious than Shasta, who, of course in retrospect, didn't really do anything... I am curious to hear more from her, and what she thinks now that her initial gut-feeling suspect turned out to be the Seer.
Okay, two things with one quote...

I share the anticipation of hearing what Lottie has to say. She tends to be "naturally suspicious" (as I think I phrased it yesterDay) and so her looking that way is no news and says nothing about her lupinity. Also I think that the probability of her being a wolf rested on the scenario of them having a wolf-on-wolf yesterDay. Now as it turned out it wasn't a w-on-w... well, let us hear.

I see Legate keeps repeating this "Shasta was in no way suspicious-looking" -mantra - and it makes me worried. It does feel like the wisdom of the Owl of Minerva only taking to flight after the fact - or of someone who wishes others not to see the facts as they are - namely what Boro brought forwards from yesterDay.

I suspected Shasta for real yeaterDay - and was wrong, and sadly know better now. But him being the seer quite so explains the "out of the blue" consistent attacks on Pitchie - and the oddish case he made against him, and why he didn't vote for Lottie but Pitchie in the end. So those things that made him look so suspicious...

The only thing that bothers me with this interpretation is that it makes Shasta quite a reckless seer. That for sure merits some consideration as well. Is there any better explanation to his dream from N1?


Anyway, bedtime for me as I have an early morning call (1.20am now), but I should have plenty of time later the Day to do some real digging for the first time in this game.

EDIT: X'd with Pitchie
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Old 10-07-2010, 04:22 PM   #130
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And anyway, if half the village votes for someone, then it isn't quite so random Legate seems to think (or would like us to think?). Even if all the wolves were included (which I doubt), it would still leave at least four innocents thinking him suspicious - most probably five or even six (I agree at least one wolf must have bite the chance). So what were you aiming at Legate claiming that randomness? You can't say Shasta wasn't looking suspicious with his odd to and fro with Lottie and "out of the blue" suspicions (made incredibly poorly) on Pitch?
No, not at all. By "randomness" I was referring to the fact that we are unable to track Wolves very well from the lynch - since basically everybody has voted for the same person. But actually I have revised my point about this since then, as there are at least a few votes that stand out in one way or another. But still, it is "randomness" in the sense that we can't say "well this vote made the difference between lynching person X and person Y, what does it say about the voter?"

The wonder about so many people voting Shasta was unrelated to this. I can see why people suspected him, especially e.g. Pitch's questioning of his points was justified, I think (regardless of Shasta's innocence, the points he raised had objectively poor grounds), but I am more like wondering - and I said that if you have read correctly - that I thought Lottie far more suspicious, and wondered why of these two who were in the center of things, people mostly picked Shasta.

I must say now, that from the recent posts I feel a bit better about skip and Nog - the former gives a sort of believable explanation of his thoughts (an explanation less likely for a Wolf to make up, I think) and the latter's response to me sounds also rather genuine. I am getting somewhat more concerned about Boro, but that is mostly because of his strong pressing against Pitch.

As for Shasta's dream, I find it equally possible that he dreamed of guilty Pitch or innocent Nerwen. I see that Boro's points are rather convincing, but still they are not 100% and I am inclined to believe Pitch innocent, so it seems more acceptable for me to think that Shasta dreamed of innocent Nerwen. But nothing is set in stone, I am not going to put anything down as given now. I will however keep considering these two as the most likely options.

EDIT: x-ed with Nogrod
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Old 10-07-2010, 04:40 PM   #131
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No, not at all. By "randomness" I was referring to the fact that we are unable to track Wolves very well from the lynch - since basically everybody has voted for the same person. But actually I have revised my point about this since then, as there are at least a few votes that stand out in one way or another. But still, it is "randomness" in the sense that we can't say "well this vote made the difference between lynching person X and person Y, what does it say about the voter?"
The wonder about so many people voting Shasta was unrelated to this. I can see why people suspected him
Okay. I think I see now what you mean. I read it differently in the beginning ("random" added to how you claimed Shasta was "in no way suspicious").

But as I think we see, the issue seems now to be what Shasta said, and did he leave any hints; did he dream of an innocent or a wolf; did he play carefully or recklessly etc.? And I think a few of us should take an independent look back there so that we could compare what people see.

Okay, off for now.
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Old 10-07-2010, 04:43 PM   #132
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Firstly, hats off to the Ranger and sharp intuition.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
If I know Shasta he would have left at least one clue for us to the one dream he had. When he was the ranger he always left behind clues to his protections. Now the problem is just finding it.
I haven't found anything, beyond what's already been stated: Strong suspicion and a vote for Pitch, some mild suspicion toward Greenie, and apparent trust of Nerwen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Also, he says it will be too easy to see a Wolf among Shasta and Lottie, and he straightaway dismisses the possibility of them being Wolves both. Just seems a bit too sure, in a similar matter to Ozban. The point is that he does not even question the possibility of their wolfishness on the basis of "no, I think it's just banter" (like Ozzy did) or something concrete, but just "it's too easy". I mean, what kind of a reasoning is that?
I thought it rather evident why they were unlikely to be packmates: Lottie's vote for Shasta seemed too unnecessarily reckless to have been wolf-on-wolf.

Also, I was very curious what skip would say to explain his comment about possibly voting for Shasta and not wanting to give the reasons. That, though I didn't want to say so at the time, was another point in favor of my voting for Shasta. I thought skip could be intimating he was the Seer, especially when coupled with something I'd seen from him earlier. And skip's explanation for that comment was that he had wondered if Lottie wasn't the Seer. A disaster all way round.

x/d with Nog
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Old 10-07-2010, 05:54 PM   #133
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Sorry I'm just waking up from having slept as I worked and have to work again so I will be absent for the better part of the Day.

First off, props to the Ranger! Great intuition on their part

With Shasta being the Seer, I have three possible scenarios running through my mind.

1) He dreamt of Pitch who is a Wolf.

2) His trust in Nerwen (which I had originally thought to be wolfish) could have been because he dreamt of her.

3) Lottie is a Wolf for having had no real suspicion of him in the first place.

Now, it is quite possible that two or all three of these scenarios is right, and it's even more probable that they're all wrong.

However, I am more inclined to believe that at least one of them is correct and that is that the second one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta
In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment and most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler).
That is all he ever had to say on the subject of Nerwen (which I do believe I mentioned in my vote post ). Why else bring it up?

For now I must depart and getting for work, I'll be back on afterwards and post some more and get caught up before leaving for eight hours
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Old 10-07-2010, 06:26 PM   #134
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Glirdan View Post
With Shasta being the Seer, I have three possible scenarios running through my mind.

1) He dreamt of Pitch who is a Wolf.

2) His trust in Nerwen (which I had originally thought to be wolfish) could have been because he dreamt of her.

3) Lottie is a Wolf for having had no real suspicion of him in the first place.

Now, it is quite possible that two or all three of these scenarios is right, and it's even more probable that they're all wrong.

However, I am more inclined to believe that at least one of them is correct and that is that the second one.
It's certainly plausible that the second interpretation is correct. But what I can't understand is Shasta's persistent targeting of Pitch, which otherwise appears inexplicable. To me, Pitch looked (and still does look) fairly good otherwise.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Glirdan View Post
That is all he ever had to say on the subject of Nerwen (which I do believe I mentioned in my vote post ). Why else bring it up?
Possibly for the reason he said: Nerwen agreed with him about the Cobbler.
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Old 10-07-2010, 06:43 PM   #135
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First off - what the hey? What was that? That bandwagon has got to be one of the silliest bandwagons I've seen in a long time (and the fact that I've seen sillier is just sad. ). And by 'that bandwagon', I mostly mean the...five, was it, people who voted close to each other, towards the end. Did you guys see no problems in this situation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by skip spence View Post
But Lottie, I think you should explain to us again why you found Shasta suspicious.
I said repeatedly yesterDay: Total. Gut. Feeling. I thought he felt off. As it happens, I was right - he was off. Just in the wrong sort of way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
OK then, that makes sense... especially as I had the same idea at the time, although her repeated disclaimers about having no proof, possibly being mistaken etc. made me doubt it - but then again, these could have been meant to keep the wolves from guessing her. Then, when you wrote those mysterious lines, I thought it could be you, or at least it was probably one of you two... and together, we got the real Seer lynched in the process. Bigtime failure.
Yeah, I realized later that my disclaimers could look Seerish. After I noticed that, my 'plan' was to lynch Shasta, who was supposed to be a wolf, and then maybe/hopefully the wolves would kill me instead of the real Seer. Yeah. That went well. Now pardon me while I go head-desk for a few minutes...

EDIT: xed with Zil
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Old 10-07-2010, 07:11 PM   #136
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Final Post Count from yesterDay:

Lottie -> Shasta
Shasta -> Pitch
Legate -> Lottie
Inzil -> Shasta 2
Glirdy -> Shasta 3
Skip - > Shasta 4
Pitch - > Shasta 5
Boro - > Nerwen
Greenie - > Shasta 6
Nog - > Shasta 7
Ozzy - > Legate
Wilwa - > Wilwa

Did not vote:
Eonwe, Nerwen

Out of those who voted for Shasta, I'm more inclined to believe that a Wolf is hiding in the later voters, more so in Greenie and Nog. At the time of their voting, Shasta had already garnered enough votes to have him lynched seeing as after Boro had voted, it only left those two along with Ozzy and Wilwa. Even if they had all voted for the same person and had tied up the votes, our Mod Goddess would have flipped a coin as there are no double lynchings, therefore, still a fifty/fifty chance of Shasta being lynched. The placement of both those votes just seems to safe.

I don't know if any of that make sense to anybody else, but I've always had a hard time writing my thoughts out in coherent sentences for this game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
The worst thing about the Seer-lynch yesterDay is that it was totally random (obviously, as half of village voted for him), so basically we don't even have any clear lead from the lynch.
I hate to be the one to blatantly point out the obvious, but all Day 1 lynches are completely random unless a Seer were to stupidly reveal themselves on Day 1 for one Wolf. And what do you mean, "the worst thing about the Seer-lynch"? You mean there WAS something good in lynching our Seer on Day 1? Because if there is I would very much like to hear what. I see no upside to having lynched our Seer yesterDay. Yes I know I was one of those advocating for it, but that is because I actually had suspicions of him on Day 1.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Ozban sort of stood out as the negative example - he voted while there was no real chance of lynching me, and was doing it in the sort of "normal" way, as if his vote could still accomplish something, but most of all with the sort of "alibistic" style the Wolves sometimes have, saying "my hands are clean from the blood of this one".
I see you're point at the end. Yet he could simply be a mere innocent who did not want to join the mob. May I ask why you are more suspicious of him then say, Wilwa, who not only did the exact same thing as he, but even more so as she was the last to vote?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
I don't like especially Glirdan and Skip there, their votes are in the sort of convinient place: somewhere in the middle, neither initiators, but still not just the "whatever random last nails to the coffin at the time when it doesn't matter anymore". I have been somewhat suspicious of those two already yesterDay
Well that's funny because I just went back through your posts and nowhere do you mention having any form of opinion on myself and I think you only mentioned Skip once and that was asking to hear more of him in post #45

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
If I know Shasta he would have left at least one clue for us to the one dream he had. When he was the ranger he always left behind clues to his protections. Now the problem is just finding it.
I agree and I think this might be it:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta
In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment and most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler).
He never had any real suspicion behind Pitch and never mentions Nerwen in any of his posts afterwards. I'm inclined to believe that, if there was hint, it was towards Nerwen. Shasta is no fool when it comes to this game and would be subtle about leaving his hints, and I think that's about as subtle as it comes. He didn't want to draw attention to Nerwen.

Here's a thought. Maybe it was Nerwen who the Ranger protected? The Wolves would be smart and go through the game thread and examine every last post and think of the possible meanings, especially after having Shasta revealed as the Seer. They already know that Nerwen is innocent, so why not tie up any loose threads and be done with her so that we couldn't have a known innocent? Maybe the Ranger also picked up on it and that's who he/she chose to protect?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Skip
\Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not. I felt that there was a distinct possibility that she was the Seer and that she dreamt of a Shasta-wolf, and as his subsequent reaction did not console me that was the best I could come up with at that point.
Interesting, I never thought of this possibility....But now that we know, it is quite possible that we have ourselves a Lottiewolf attempting a bluff at a Seer and had that ruined Day 1 (well, not ruined if she is a Wolf seeing as it did end up lynching the Seer). Or possibly the Cobbler. Hmmmm.....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
What I find curious is that people voted Shasta rather than her, as she was definitely far more suspicious than Shasta, who, of course in retrospect, didn't really do anything...
What I find curious is that you seem to fail noticing that there were some of us who had actual suspicions of him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
And joins the sort of suspicion bandwaggon on Shasta and Lottie.
If by join the bandwagon you mean I went with something that I had actually thought to be suspicious to begin with, then yeah, I guess I did that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
wondered why of these two who were in the center of things, people mostly picked Shasta.
If you would like to know, I generally found more suspicion in Shasta than I did in Lottie and even posted about it with my vote. However, as it stands, I will most certainly like to look into Lottie a little more toDay (if I have the time) after yesterDay's events. But you, sir, are raising my eyebrow more and more and would also like to take a closer look at you as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
I am getting somewhat more concerned about Boro, but that is mostly because of his strong pressing against Pitch.
Perhaps his strong pressing against Pitch would have something to do with the fact that our dead Seer was strongly against Pitch. I don't know just a theory. I find this suspicion rather disconcerting.

Okay, now to get caught up on the OTHER posts that have been made since I started writing this.

In other words, I know I've cross posted with x amount of people since my last.

EDIT: Okay I was wrong, x'ed with Zil and Lottie
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Old 10-07-2010, 07:19 PM   #137
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He never had any real suspicion behind Pitch and never mentions Nerwen in any of his posts afterwards. I'm inclined to believe that, if there was hint, it was towards Nerwen. Shasta is no fool when it comes to this game and would be subtle about leaving his hints, and I think that's about as subtle as it comes. He didn't want to draw attention to Nerwen.
I'd just like to say that, if Pitchie is a dream'd wolf, a packmate would press the Nerwen-dream. But in general Glirdy's tone in this game has been very non-wolfish, and I'm inclined to trust him...or at least, not vote him.
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Old 10-07-2010, 07:59 PM   #138
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Okay, well I sadly must depart for work shortly and will be unable to post until I get off. Hopefully some conversation might happen whilst I'm away
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Old 10-07-2010, 08:31 PM   #139
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Lottie - I don't know what to think. What I find curious is that people voted Shasta rather than her
That was the strangest thing to me about the voting yesterday. I mean usually there's a pretty wide spread and you can be lynched with 3 or 4 votes, but that has got to be one of the biggest Day 1 bandwagons I've ever seen.

I haven't seen that type of vast majority agreement in the village, unless the Seer stepped out to reveal a wolf. Usually once someone gets 1 or 2 votes, with the close nature of Day 1 someone who doesn't agree will step up to defend and warn against a bandwagon. There was no one who did, which means either villagers took the easy vote for someone they thought was acting weird or the wolves bandwagoned the heck out of that to push Shasta as the clear lynch.

For myself, my random vote became more frustration than anything. Because when I went to do a vote count the votes were: Shasta - 3, Pitch - 1and Lottie - 1. I wasn't suspicious of any of those choices and was trying to put another name into the list. At the time my strongest suspect was Nogrod, not particularly strong reasons though. I couldn't get this image out of my head that Nog had this gigantic smirking grin on his face every time he posted. No joke about that, I just imagine him having this massive smirk across his face all Day 1. The reason I didn't vote for him is simply because I think someone is up to something doesn't mean they are necessarily evil. And with Day 1's I tend to let the people who look up to something go and do their thing, just watch them until I can figure them out, and then vote for someone who hasn't left any real impressions.

Then before I even know it Shasta's got another two votes giving him 5 and by that time I basically threw my hands up for the night. He was all but dead and buried. That's the shame about the lynch is by that point when Shasta has the 5 votes, everyone's vote after is virtually useless. I was hoping to try and add some competition and make the last voters votes mean more as they'd be faced with a more difficult choice, but before I could blink Shasta went from 3 to 5 and you can stick a phorc in him at that point.

That Day 1 would make a good psych study though, because usually once you get one dissenter those after the dissenter are more likely to dissent themselves. However, no one dissented, and without a dissenter the rocks just keep piling. Morrrre weight!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
Yeah, I realized later that my disclaimers could look Seerish. After I noticed that, my 'plan' was to lynch Shasta, who was supposed to be a wolf, and then maybe/hopefully the wolves would kill me instead of the real Seer. Yeah. That went well. Now pardon me while I go head-desk for a few minutes...
Oddly enough I actually believe those were your intentions. Complete and total failure on your part. I've been there and done that too though, so yeah, know the feeling.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Glirdan View Post
He never had any real suspicion behind Pitch and never mentions Nerwen in any of his posts afterwards. I'm inclined to believe that, if there was hint, it was towards Nerwen. Shasta is no fool when it comes to this game and would be subtle about leaving his hints, and I think that's about as subtle as it comes. He didn't want to draw attention to Nerwen.
And that's what makes me the most wary. I mean would a seer Shasta who dreamt of a Pitchwolf continually just pile on weak, unreasoned suspicions like that on Day 1? Quite bold and reckless indeed and heck if I'd know that.

The only scenario I can come up with that would be Shasta did not dream of Pitch is something that probably would belong in Werewolf twisted lore . That is, Shasta was doing some twisted double bluff in looking like the seer, but giving a wrong clue to throw the wolves off. I mean when I try to bluff to be the seer, I pick one person for random junk reasons and if I'm right I hope the wolf is nervous enough to bite and if I'm wrong then obviously the wolves know I'm not the seer. So, with Shasta actually being the seer, in order to still look seerish but protect himself from the wolves, his continued pressing on Pitch was almost like a false clue or red herring. And that he was suspicious of Pitch, but hadn't dreamed of him and possibly telegraphing his next dream?

I want to point out that my previous post, which went through Shasta's posts was NOT a "lynch Pitch campaign." We have a dead seer, I want to try and figure out what his 1 dream was so we could get something useful from the mess. The fact still remains he only suspected Pitch for what at the time to everyone else looked like complete junk reasons. I have no clue what it means, or whether his dream was Pitch or not. That's not the purpose of my post, my purpose was to try to organize the Seer's posts into one and find out what, if any, clues were in them.

Edit: crossed with Glirdan
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Old 10-07-2010, 08:40 PM   #140
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First off, I'd like to say I don't completely understand why Shasta was voted for by soooo many people. I didn't really think he was that suspicious (his case against Pitch was weird, I'll get back to that, but not *that* suspicious) and then everyone just pounced on him. I mean a couple votes would have made sense, but like 7? Seriously...

So I initially thought that Pitchwolf must have been Shasta's dream, but the more I think about it the more it seems way too obvious to me. I don't know if Shasta would be quite so obvious, since that would paint a huge target on his head for the wolvies. An innocent Nerwen dream seems more likely to me, I'll look at his posts again though once I've slept.

And...I'll stop there. I'm going to go sleep and I have the day off tomorrow (save for a nice little pile of homework) so I should be on fairly regularly.

x'ed with Boro
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Old 10-07-2010, 08:41 PM   #141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Nerwen - Nerwen, a question. Whom would you have voted in case you happened to be around earlier? I know it doesn't matter so much anymore and you can make up whatever you wish, but anyway I would like to hear the answer...
All right. I would have probably voted for Lottie or Greenie (i.e. a throwaway– Nog can make of that what he likes). No, not Shasta. I'm not just saying this to play that annoying game of, "Ooo, look, I kept my hands clean by not voting, now I will act like this makes me morally superior". While I did agree that his and Lottie's interactions might be wolf-on-wolf, I also thought if it was only one of them, Lottie was more likely.

On that note, I think the "Shasta looks wolfier" meme of yesterDay needs examining. I couldn't see that at the time and I don't see it now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
I share the anticipation of hearing what Lottie has to say. She tends to be "naturally suspicious" (as I think I phrased it yesterDay) and so her looking that way is no news and says nothing about her lupinity. Also I think that the probability of her being a wolf rested on the scenario of them having a wolf-on-wolf yesterDay.
No, not at all. Why do you think that?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
I see Legate keeps repeating this "Shasta was in no way suspicious-looking" -mantra - and it makes me worried. It does feel like the wisdom of the Owl of Minerva only taking to flight after the fact - or of someone who wishes others not to see the facts as they are - namely what Boro brought forwards from yesterDay.

I suspected Shasta for real yeaterDay - and was wrong, and sadly know better now. But him being the seer quite so explains the "out of the blue" consistent attacks on Pitchie - and the oddish case he made against him, and why he didn't vote for Lottie but Pitchie in the end. So those things that made him look so suspicious...
Oh, yes, I understand why Shasta looked suspicious– and obviously voting for him can't in itself be a sign of guilt– but the thing is, everything you could say about him you could also say about Lottie, and then some. (No, I'm not saying Lottie's necessarily guilty, either– just making a point.) So, I'm honestly quite puzzled why he was the one lynched.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
The only thing that bothers me with this interpretation is that it makes Shasta quite a reckless seer. That for sure merits some consideration as well. Is there any better explanation to his dream from N1?
It's been said already– he could have dreamed me as an innocent. However, let us suppose Shasta did in fact dream Pitch– perhaps he was trying to provoke Mr Agreeable Wolf into a response? Or trying to leave a trail back to him in case he died? A bit clumsy, yes, but it was my jewel's first time as a Seer.

EDIT:X'd with Wilwa.
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Old 10-07-2010, 09:09 PM   #142
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Here's a thought. Maybe it was Nerwen who the Ranger protected? The Wolves would be smart and go through the game thread and examine every last post and think of the possible meanings, especially after having Shasta revealed as the Seer. They already know that Nerwen is innocent, so why not tie up any loose threads and be done with her so that we couldn't have a known innocent? Maybe the Ranger also picked up on it and that's who he/she chose to protect?
No reason why it couldn't have played out that way. Only a few know for sure though.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Glirdan View Post
Perhaps his strong pressing against Pitch would have something to do with the fact that our dead Seer was strongly against Pitch. I don't know just a theory. I find this suspicion rather disconcerting.
Seconded. We don't know what Shasta was up to, but his dreaming a Pitchwolf must at least be a strong possibility. Why is someone discussing that a cause for alarm?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen View Post
All right. I would have probably voted for Lottie or Greenie (i.e. a throwaway– Nog can make of that what he likes).
I think you've said why Lottie would have been an option for you, but out of curiosity, why Greenie?
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Old 10-07-2010, 11:09 PM   #143
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I think you've said why Lottie would have been an option for you, but out of curiosity, why Greenie?
I didn't like the way she said Lottie sounded "very genuine", or whatever it was. I know one can't expect everyone to see things the same way, but I thought it pretty obvious that Lottie, whatever her role, was up to something, and that the reasons she gave for suspecting Shasta were quite contrived– c.f. her own explanation toDay.

At least, they're the people I was thinking about when I signed off yesterDay. I might have thrown some others into the mix if I'd been around later.

I maintain that bandwagon was weird, and that those saying, "yes, but he WAS suspicious!" are missing the point. Everyone involved was moderately to highly experienced– did it really occur to none of you that a big, near-unanimous bandwagon on Day One probably wasn't the best idea?*

Apparently not. So– I say there was some pretty skilful manipulation going on yesterDay. We may be able to find traces.




*If someone's extremely suspicious, that's different– but once again, I don't see that Shasta was.
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Old 10-07-2010, 11:31 PM   #144
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Nerwen's explanation makes a lot of sense, and Greenie hadn't been untalked about - more than one person commented on her post. Coupled with her late bandwagon-vote, she doesn't exactly make my list of people I'm not voting for - which, in case anyone was wondering (doubtful ) consists primarily of:

Glirdy and Zil as not-evil;
Boro and Nerwen (as intelligent).

Not-trusted:
Pitchie because of uncertainty as to whether Shasta dreamed him evil or not;
Nog because he makes me uneasy;
Legate because he seems just a bit too smooth (don't really suspect him for it, but don't trust him because of it, either);
Ozzy because I don't know him well enough to read him yet (and I can just see the wolves pulling off a brilliant double-bluff by making a newbie seem totally well adjusted);
Everyone Else because I haven't noticed anything about them.

SO yeah. Not going to vote for People I Am Not Voting For. Probably not Ozzy, Nog, Pitchie, or most of the people I haven't noticed. Which leaves Legate, Greenie, or a random sub-ish person. Preferably not random sub-ish person.

I'll be on again in the morning, but I don't know how much. It won't be sleep time for another hour or so, either, so I'll be around...some...toDay...
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Old 10-08-2010, 01:48 AM   #145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
Nerwen's explanation makes a lot of sense, and Greenie hadn't been untalked about - more than one person commented on her post. Coupled with her late bandwagon-vote, she doesn't exactly make my list of people I'm not voting for - which, in case anyone was wondering (doubtful ) consists primarily of:

Glirdy and Zil as not-evil;
Boro and Nerwen (as intelligent).

Not-trusted:
Pitchie because of uncertainty as to whether Shasta dreamed him evil or not;
Nog because he makes me uneasy;
Legate because he seems just a bit too smooth (don't really suspect him for it, but don't trust him because of it, either);
Ozzy because I don't know him well enough to read him yet (and I can just see the wolves pulling off a brilliant double-bluff by making a newbie seem totally well adjusted);
Everyone Else because I haven't noticed anything about them.

SO yeah. Not going to vote for People I Am Not Voting For. Probably not Ozzy, Nog, Pitchie, or most of the people I haven't noticed. Which leaves Legate, Greenie, or a random sub-ish person. Preferably not random sub-ish person.
Hang on. Why Legate and Greenie over the others in you "not-trusted" list?
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Old 10-08-2010, 01:54 AM   #146
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Hang on. Why Legate and Greenie over the others in you "not-trusted" list?
Because the only reason not to trust Pitchie is that he might have been dreamed. Other than that, he looks fine to me. Ozzy is just a "what it" sort of suspicion - hardly a good reason for a vote. And Nog just makes me feel uneasy, which he usually does anyway, so I'm not reading all that much into it. And I do not want to randomly vote for someone I've got no read on on Day 2.
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Old 10-08-2010, 02:17 AM   #147
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I don't have so much time now, replying to some posts, but not to all... will look at the rest when I come back...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Glirdan View Post
I hate to be the one to blatantly point out the obvious, but all Day 1 lynches are completely random unless a Seer were to stupidly reveal themselves on Day 1 for one Wolf. And what do you mean, "the worst thing about the Seer-lynch"? You mean there WAS something good in lynching our Seer on Day 1? Because if there is I would very much like to hear what. I see no upside to having lynched our Seer yesterDay. Yes I know I was one of those advocating for it, but that is because I actually had suspicions of him on Day 1.
There is of course nothing good at lynching the Seer, but the worst (which is worse than "bad", in case you were wondering) is that it cannot even give us much material to analyse. There would have been something sort-of positive if we could at least get clues from it. But this is pointless, as I have already concluded that there already is something to find there. See above...

Quote:
I see you're point at the end. Yet he could simply be a mere innocent who did not want to join the mob. May I ask why you are more suspicious of him then say, Wilwa, who not only did the exact same thing as he, but even more so as she was the last to vote?
It is the way it is phrased and the way they use it. The main point is not just the vote itself, but also how the people explain it. Wilwa's explanation seemed innocent, whereas Ozzy seemed more likely fake to me, see above the posts toDay where I am discussing with him.

Quote:
Well that's funny because I just went back through your posts and nowhere do you mention having any form of opinion on myself and I think you only mentioned Skip once and that was asking to hear more of him in post #45
It is possible I didn't mention you, but I was curious about you. Late in the Day, as you know, I didn't have time and so didn't post anything long where I could list my opinions on everybody.

Quote:
Here's a thought. Maybe it was Nerwen who the Ranger protected? The Wolves would be smart and go through the game thread and examine every last post and think of the possible meanings, especially after having Shasta revealed as the Seer. They already know that Nerwen is innocent, so why not tie up any loose threads and be done with her so that we couldn't have a known innocent? Maybe the Ranger also picked up on it and that's who he/she chose to protect?
That's not a bad idea, of course given if Nerwen is innocent. I am not 100% sure neither of Boro's strong suggestion that it is evil Pitch who was the dream (okay, but now I see he clarified it and said it was meant differently), nor Glirdy's who seems to suggest rather strongly that it was innocent Nerwen... but we'll see. I'll think of it when I come back.

There is something unnerving me about Lottie's recent post, if I say it shortly, sort of hypocrisy or what... it looks like that... ("oh you lynched shasta"). I know an innocent can start a bandwaggon unwillingly, but still this looks fake.

Whatever... gotta really run now! Will be back in several hours.
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Old 10-08-2010, 02:38 AM   #148
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
Because the only reason not to trust Pitchie is that he might have been dreamed.
But calling that the only reason is not unlike saying that we are now being held captive by the only evil Maia on this island* It isn't exactly a mere trifle. You went after Shasta in the first place because of his strange vehemence against Pitchwife. Others noticed it too. It seems to have been Zil and Glirdan's main reason for voting him.

And now we know Shasta was the Seer...

EDIT:X'd with Legate.





*I don't care if the rest of you have given up on ic-posting. I'll do it if I want to. Nyahhh.
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Old 10-08-2010, 04:53 AM   #149
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I actually have more time than I originally thought I would have and I am back already, so a few comments: I'm starting to feel quite well about Boro (especially his post 139, which seems both okay to me when it comes to its substance as well as it seeming genuinely innocent, which is the main point) and also Nerwen because of her posts and responses (sort of similar case). I am not still so sure about Lottie. For that matter, I would still like to know more about her picks - so is it just choosing the best possible pick for lynch since you don't actually have much of an idea about anybody, do I get it right?

For that matter, I will really have to vote soon (in, say, two hours at most), so I should just start slowly deciding... I have basically two main options right now, that being Glirdy and Lottie.

Otherwise: Boro, Nerwen, Pitch I feel quite good about at the moment, wilwa also although now she hasn't posted much and her last post was nothing special, but I probably won't be around to hear more from her; Ozban I am watching, but convinced to leave him be for the time being and just observe; skip I feel a bit better about from his early toDay posting, Nogrod has still some questionmarks but likewise he is not so heavily alarming now, Greenie and Eönwë I have very little idea about and Inzil too, with some more like gut-feeling of uneasiness with him, but that's mostly it.

I'm thinking that at least one Wolf might be among the two I am considering to vote right now, Glirdy looks a bit more likely to be a baddie to me, but we shall see. I'll check a few times if anybody posts anything, and then I will have to vote and go.
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Old 10-08-2010, 06:29 AM   #150
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Okay, time to vote is getting near for me. Actually upon reading her posts, I am now inclined to vote Lottie toDay. Seriously, especially her toDay's posts are just... bad. (And that said, the suspicion for the strange way she behaved in relation to Shasta yesterDay still holds, of course, too.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
First off - what the hey? What was that? That bandwagon has got to be one of the silliest bandwagons I've seen in a long time (and the fact that I've seen sillier is just sad. ). And by 'that bandwagon', I mostly mean the...five, was it, people who voted close to each other, towards the end. Did you guys see no problems in this situation?
This is one of the things. I know and can understand, like I have said already, that an innocent can start a bandwaggon which ends up with lynching the Seer, and she does not even know what she does will turn into a bandwaggon (of course she does not!). She can also still scorn the people for lynching the Seer. Of course, she has the right to, it is a harm to everyone in the village. But this way Lottie does it is incredible hypocrisy, I say. "Did you guys see no problem in the bandwaggon I have started?" I mean, I am really curious what would you say had you been around yesterDay at that time. Only if you said "wait, now I am beginning to doubt whether I voted well", I would be able to let you pass with the above. But generally if you vote for somebody, you want them lynched, right? But this way... no word about one's own role in the stuff, although I don't expect you to come crying and begging us for forgiveness, still this is like totally forgetting that you were the one who started it all.

Quote:
Yeah, I realized later that my disclaimers could look Seerish. After I noticed that, my 'plan' was to lynch Shasta, who was supposed to be a wolf, and then maybe/hopefully the wolves would kill me instead of the real Seer. Yeah. That went well. Now pardon me while I go head-desk for a few minutes...
I just don't believe it. That looks fake. There's been, btw, already about half a dozen people claiming they voted as they did because they thought somebody was the Seer or something... but this one looks just the least credible of all. It looks fabricated. (And just as a sort of addendum, these rolleyes-smileys all over the place also don't add to the credibility.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
I'd just like to say that, if Pitchie is a dream'd wolf, a packmate would press the Nerwen-dream. But in general Glirdy's tone in this game has been very non-wolfish, and I'm inclined to trust him...or at least, not vote him.
This is one typical thing the Wolves just do: "btw, you people might also want to start suspecting this one, because he did XY, you know. But actually I am not suspecting him. I am just saying, so that you know." Don't like it either.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
Nerwen's explanation makes a lot of sense, and Greenie hadn't been untalked about - more than one person commented on her post. Coupled with her late bandwagon-vote, she doesn't exactly make my list of people I'm not voting for - which, in case anyone was wondering (doubtful) consists primarily of:

Glirdy and Zil as not-evil;
Boro and Nerwen (as intelligent).

Not-trusted:
Pitchie because of uncertainty as to whether Shasta dreamed him evil or not;
Nog because he makes me uneasy;
Legate because he seems just a bit too smooth (don't really suspect him for it, but don't trust him because of it, either);
Ozzy because I don't know him well enough to read him yet (and I can just see the wolves pulling off a brilliant double-bluff by making a newbie seem totally well adjusted);
Everyone Else because I haven't noticed anything about them.

SO yeah. Not going to vote for People I Am Not Voting For. Probably not Ozzy, Nog, Pitchie, or most of the people I haven't noticed. Which leaves Legate, Greenie, or a random sub-ish person. Preferably not random sub-ish person.
And then this last one with the list of people... agreeing with Nerwen and sort of emphasising "pardoning" her (cf. what's been said about agreeable Wolves here, and Wolves can be really nice and pardon people, especially since they know who is innocent and who probably really didn't mean anything wrong by what they did, etc.)...

And where did this Greenie suspicion come from anyway? I don't see her even in Lottie's list. Isn't it per any chance picking on what Nerwen just said about suspecting her, or a slip of mind where she noted to herself - as a Wolf - "Nerwen seemed to suspect Greenie, from now on I am pretending to trust her because of that explanation" and accidentally then messing it up in her head and writing her among the suspects? I can see that happening to a Wolf...

All in all, my vote probably goes there... just going to look if perchance anybody didn't post meanwhile and then I go...
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Old 10-08-2010, 06:30 AM   #151
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Okay, for epic triple-post...

++Lottie

Vote well, village, and hopefully see you on the following Day... (and in the best case, with a dead Wolf there.)
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Old 10-08-2010, 06:31 AM   #152
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I keep thinking about the "who did Shasta dream?" question. I think it has to be either me (innocent) or Pitch (wolf).

In support of the theory that it was me we have the fact that the wolves and Ranger both picked the same person, suggesting that they were following the same line of reasoning. Now, the wolves, unlike the Ranger obviously wouldn't have seen me as a "dreamed innocent" if they knew that the Seer's dream had been one of them.

In support of the theory that it was Pitch, we have Shasta's otherwise inexplicable "case" on him. We also have, perhaps, the fact of the huge bandwagon. I'm still not sure who was driving the thing, but it surely had wolfish involvement– could the wolves have picked him as the Seer, and taken the opportunity to get rid of him?

Reading through yesterDay, I can't see any good reason for Shasta to act as he did unless he'd got a wolf– and yet Pitch nowhere sounds wolfish, except perhaps in his vote-post.

As for the Shasta-voters... actually they all look quite suspicious after another read-though. I'm not sure what to think yet.

EDIT:X'd with 2 Legates.
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Old 10-08-2010, 07:12 AM   #153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
That Day 1 would make a good psych study though, because usually once you get one dissenter those after the dissenter are more likely to dissent themselves. However, no one dissented, and without a dissenter the rocks just keep piling. Morrrre weight!
Hmm, perhaps this is what I should do my honours thesis on? But yes, it was a super strange bandwaggon. Look at this:

Lottie -> Shasta
Shasta -> Pitch
Legate -> Lottie
Inzil -> Shasta 2
Glirdy -> Shasta 3
Skip - > Shasta 4
Pitch - > Shasta 5
Boro - > Nerwen
Greenie - > Shasta 6
Nog - > Shasta 7
Ozzy - > Legate
Wilwa - > Wilwa

Looking at just the placement of the votes I'd say Skip, Pitch, Greenie and Nog have the worst ones. (though I would need to look at their actual reasoning before I could say whether it was actually suspicious) And has anyone realised that nobody else yesterday had more than one vote. Shasta was not that suspicious, at least not so much more so than Lottie. So I don't understand. I'm going to go back and take a closer look at all this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
First off - what the hey? What was that? That bandwagon has got to be one of the silliest bandwagons I've seen in a long time (and the fact that I've seen sillier is just sad. ). And by 'that bandwagon', I mostly mean the...five, was it, people who voted close to each other, towards the end. Did you guys see no problems in this situation?
This is one of the things. I know and can understand, like I have said already, that an innocent can start a bandwaggon which ends up with lynching the Seer, and she does not even know what she does will turn into a bandwaggon (of course she does not!). She can also still scorn the people for lynching the Seer. Of course, she has the right to, it is a harm to everyone in the village. But this way Lottie does it is incredible hypocrisy, I say. "Did you guys see no problem in the bandwaggon I have started?" I mean, I am really curious what would you say had you been around yesterDay at that time. Only if you said "wait, now I am beginning to doubt whether I voted well", I would be able to let you pass with the above. But generally if you vote for somebody, you want them lynched, right? But this way... no word about one's own role in the stuff, although I don't expect you to come crying and begging us for forgiveness, still this is like totally forgetting that you were the one who started it all.
I agree with Legate's point. Like she's saying "what were you guys thinking when you agreed with me about his suspiciousness?". Seriously? Anyone who actually voted for him is not allowed to say "what were you guys thinking". You vote for someone, you obviously want them dead, you can't chastise other people who also voted for them. Admittedly the later voters do look worse, but putting all the blame on them is silliness.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen View Post
It's been said already– he could have dreamed me as an innocent. However, let us suppose Shasta did in fact dream Pitch– perhaps he was trying to provoke Mr Agreeable Wolf into a response? Or trying to leave a trail back to him in case he died? A bit clumsy, yes, but it was my jewel's first time as a Seer.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
And that's what makes me the most wary. I mean would a seer Shasta who dreamt of a Pitchwolf continually just pile on weak, unreasoned suspicions like that on Day 1? Quite bold and reckless indeed and heck if I'd know that.
Ok, I know that it looks too obvious to be Pitch, but are we seriously going to gamble with this? There's a chance that he was Shasta's dream, that should be enough to lynch him. We know Shasta obviously had a dream, and I would think he'd leave some sort of clue somewhere.

See one thing that goes through a wolf's head when they are choosing who to kill is to look for Seer hints that point to them. If we hadn't of killed Shasta and Pitchwolf was indeed his dream just think of what may have happened last Night. Pitchwolf and his mates looking for possible Seers, see Shasta's blatant attack on him, and maybe think "wow, he could be the Seer, but if we kill him and we're right than that will point straight to Pitch" or "he could be the Seer, but Shasta would never be that obvious, he's bluffing". I actually think it would be a smart thing to be overly obvious about a dream like that, it may have protected him from the wolves. Savvy?

And I have to say, knowing Shasta, that if Pitchwolf was his dream and we decide to ignore the hints, Shasta will mass murder us out of frustration.

x'ed with Nerwen, and just had a thought, Nerwen would be a likely Night 1 dream for Shasta, but I still think we shouldn't let Pitch get by
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Old 10-08-2010, 07:33 AM   #154
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After reading whole thread through again, I tend to suspect Lottie. Especially his toDay's posts sound crooked. Then again, I'd say that if Lottie'd be a wolf, she wouldn't cast a vote first. And even without any firm accusation, just a "gut-feeling"? Such an approach seem to risky for a wolf to try it.

I'm not really fond of Legate either, he's still seems somehow... someone described it as "too smooth". His toDay's post did fix his reputation partly, but I shall still observe him closer than the others.

Pitch never sounded wolfish, but that scenario of him being dreamt unnerves me. eventhough it seems to me more likely, that Nerwen was dreamt about. From Shasta's formulation of his trust towards her... Still can't now. (Actually I begin to think it's motto of this whole game: Do something when you know nothing. )

Those last two votes, Nog n Greenie, are quite suspicious. Reading through Nog's posts, he remains active, but refrains from attacking anybody. Now I'd really need comparison with some of his older games, whether it's totaly normal or not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
Let this not be forgotten toMorrow if Shasta is innocent!
This speaks for him though, doesn't it?

Serching for traces of some manipulation, as Nerwen suggested, I tend to think that it wasn't Nog's doing. I'm convinced though, that among Shasta-voters were at least one, more likely two wolves.

If there has been any silent intrigues, I'd say that Zil and Gilr were most active at accusing pauvre Seer. It may be genuine, of course, but in a way it seem too concentrated on Shasta, leaving Lottie out, why? Cover?

Also...
Quote:
Originally Posted by skip spence View Post
You know, I'm fine with ...

++Shasta
What the hell???
I don't know. Seems too carefree, too crowd-loving if you know what I mean.

And...
Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
Not that it makes any difference now..

++ Shasta

Because of what I've said before, don't have the time or energy to repeat everything.
Same.

In the end Eönwë was only one of us that defended Shasta. For that he has my trust. As much as is possible in this game.

Truth is, sadly I know none of you, in-game at least. So it's hard to guess peoples intentions, without comparision with their previous styles.

Later...
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Old 10-08-2010, 07:44 AM   #155
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X'ed previous with Wilwa.

You seem quite bloodthirsty ya know?
Your logic is sound though.
Is it your Lupine hunger?
About that we should ponder.
Or you may really fear for your skin.
In that case, we shall protect your kin.
Considering danger upon our head,
we need now more to be said.
Only then we may truth discern,
And to Nargothrond return.

Later...
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Old 10-08-2010, 07:52 AM   #156
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Quote:
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I keep think about the "who did Shasta dream?" question. I think it has to be either me (innocent) or Pitch (wolf).

In support of the theory that it was me we have the fact that the wolves and Ranger both picked the same person, suggesting that they were following the same line of reasoning. Now, the wolves, unlike the Ranger obviously wouldn't have seen me as a "dreamed innocent" if they knew that the Seer's dream had been one of them.
Hmm, usually the early kills are either set for who the wolves think the Seer is, or to be trailless. We know the former option wasn't on their mind last night.

The ranger's mind was on the same page as the wolves last night, but I don't think the seer dream would have been much of a consideration. Like you said, if one of the wolves thought they were dreamed, then they wouldn't be considering killing a "dreamed innocent." But even if they didn't think one of them was Shasta's dream, with how trailless and little Shasta's posts were, they couldn't find any obvious clues that would lead us to the "dreamed innocent" to be all that concerned about killing the "dreamed innocent." That's a bit jumpled, but in summary, I think now you're over-complicating it.

Quote:
In support of the theory that it was Pitch, we have Shasta's otherwise inexplicable "case" on him. We also have, perhaps, the fact of the huge bandwagon. I'm still not sure who was driving the thing, but it surely had wolfish involvement– could the wolves have picked him as the Seer, and taken the opportunity to get rid of him?

Reading through yesterDay, I can't see any good reason for Shasta to act as he did unless he'd got a wolf– and yet Pitch nowhere sounds wolfish, except perhaps in his vote-post.
I agree that band-wagon had wolvery written all over it. With regards to Pitch, the only thing that looks more worse for him is his first response to Lottie (about Shasta) was...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch, #48
On the Shasta-Lottie thing: Basically, Lottie's saying "I do suspect him in earnest, but I could be wrong" - and of course she could, such is the lot of an ordo, therefore it's trivial and she might as well not have bothered to say it. Peppering her suspicion with disclaimers like that does have a smell of wolvish caution, and it doesn't help that I don't see anything remotely worrying in that quote of Shasta she started her suspicion from.
He would later adjust his tune to suspecting Shasta more and eventually voting for him. Of course people change and waffle back and forth, but it may be worthy to point out. He first seems to regard the Lottie-Shasta trifle as a trivial row between 2 innocents, but changes to suspecting Shasta.

I'm beating on the same drum about that band-wagon (and I'm skeptical of Nogrod suggesting it was justified because Shasta was so obviously suspicious), but Nerwen's absolutely right that's got wolf prints all over it. I think Legate, or Nerwen, or someone had mentioned this early but worth saying again. When you have that type of attention and battle between two people usually there is a much mroe even split and division, and there was none, which suggests wolves pushed a bandwagon onto Shasta.

Now this doesn't mean they were protecting a bandwagon against a wolf-Lottie, maybe they saw an opportunity to implicate both by getting a bandwagon against Shasta, but at the same time framing an innocent-Lottie to make it look like they were protecting her.

I can't tell who drove it either, but I do know this. Greenie gives her 4 possibilities and seems to take the side that Lottie looks more innocent than Shasta. Nerwen interprets it differently and seems to think of the two Shasta looks more innocent (correct?) So there's the split, and you've got Shasta of course saying Greenie's reasons for defending Lottie were junk.

Greenie and/or Nerwen could be wolves here to put more focus on the two, however for now I think they were both commenting on the first spark of action in the day that wasn't cobbler talk. What's more suspicious is everything after the split of opinion, everyone piles onto Shasta.

The talk evolves into a "wolf on wolf" between Lottie and Shasta, and in those situations it really should be 50-50, with how people interpret things differently, but instead it was all a thumbs up for Greenie's post and Shasta looks more suspicious. Which, is also suspicious, I mean what was so spectacular about Greenie's post (no offense Greenie)? What it essentially was is...here's 4 possibilities between Lottie and Shasta, any one of them is equally possible? I also recall a lot of Shasta is getting very aggressive and defensive (so latching onto Lottie's self-admitted "gut feelings") to pile against Shasta.

That whole situation after Greenie and Nerwen's differing opinions (and it's important to add Legate's vote for Lottie because he felt of the two Lottie was more suspicious) is wolvish. You should see a continued even-split in votes and what we get is consistent several pats on the back for Greenie's post, and a move to "Lottie and Shasta look wolf-on-wolf...Shasta looks like the wolf more than Lottie!)

One thing away from the band-wagon yesterday, to say to is about Wilwa's self-vote. It may be the frustration of having a meaningless vote, but it looks pretty weird and flippant. More like a cobbler signal to the wolves though than a wolf casting a meaningless vote. She said she never had the chance to vote for herself, seems to have wanted to and now was as good of a chance as any, but also find yourself a good opportunity to say "Here's your cobbler wolvsies," Wilwa?

Pre-edit: because I've got distracted by an outside convo and this post has taken longer than anticipated, so I'm sure I've crossed. Nerwen's post that I reply to here is the last one I read.
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Old 10-08-2010, 08:02 AM   #157
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wilwarin538 View Post
I agree with Legate's point. Like she's saying "what were you guys thinking when you agreed with me about his suspiciousness?". Seriously? Anyone who actually voted for him is not allowed to say "what were you guys thinking". You vote for someone, you obviously want them dead, you can't chastise other people who also voted for them. Admittedly the later voters do look worse, but putting all the blame on them is silliness.
To some extent I do see Lottie's point– she just cast the first vote, whereas the actual bandwaggoning happened later. All the same, it wasn't as if she'd made an early semi-random vote and everyone jumped on it– she in fact played quite a role in building up suspicion on Shasta.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wilwarin538 View Post
Ok, I know that it looks too obvious to be Pitch, but are we seriously going to gamble with this? There's a chance that he was Shasta's dream, that should be enough to lynch him. We know Shasta obviously had a dream, and I would think he'd leave some sort of clue somewhere.
I concur. But it's a bit of a dilemma– do we lynch Lottie, who has behaved suspiciously, or Pitch, who hasn't at all, but who has a major piece of evidence against him?
I'm thinking at the moment it should be one of those two. At least they're not mutually exclusive as villains.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilwa
And I have to say, knowing Shasta, that if Pitchwolf was his dream and we decide to ignore the hints, Shasta will mass murder us out of frustration.
Unless his head explodes first...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilwa
x'ed with Nerwen, and just had a thought, Nerwen would be a likely Night 1 dream for Shasta, but I still think we shouldn't let Pitch get by
I forgot to say that in my last post, but it's bugging me too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozban View Post
After reading whole thread through again, I tend to suspect Lottie. Especially his toDay's posts sound crooked. Then again, I'd say that if Lottie'd be a wolf, she wouldn't cast a vote first. And even without any firm accusation, just a "gut-feeling"? Such an approach seem to risky for a wolf to try it.
Actually, casting the first vote is something wolves quite like to do– nobody can really blame you when that person is lynched and turns out innocent. And "gut-feeling" is something wolves can fall back on when they can't fake-up a better case on an innocent.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozban View Post
I'm not really fond of Legate either, he's still seems somehow... someone described it as "too smooth". His toDay's post did fix his reputation partly, but I shall still observe him closer than the others.
I don't like the way Legate went back and forth and seemed to contradict himself yesterDay... but that's all I've got on him at the moment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozban View Post
If there has been any silent intrigues, I'd say that Zil and Gilr were most active at accusing pauvre Seer. It may be genuine, of course, but in a way it seem too concentrated on Shasta, leaving Lottie out, why? Cover?
It could be. Those two, from memory, were in fact the ones who most pushed the notion that "if one of them's a wolf it's Shasta". ANd Zil was quite twisty.

EDIT:X'd with Boro and Ozban-turned-poet.
EDIT2: word left out.
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Old 10-08-2010, 08:24 AM   #158
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Here's something from early in the Day that I meant to comment on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by skip spence View Post
Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not.
Fair enough, and the point did occur to me too– though I rejected it when she started saying "but I could be wrong". However, why didn't Shasta's flimsy accusation of Pitch also strike you as Seerish?
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Old 10-08-2010, 08:45 AM   #159
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Well, I have to vote now, so–

++Pitchwife the (hopefully) Furry Furrier

Good luck!
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Old 10-08-2010, 09:21 AM   #160
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My Not going to vote for List because they aren't coming off as cobblery or wolfy.

Legate
Lottie
Nerwen
Greenie


Because out of the entire Shasta-Lottie thing they come out looking the most innocent. Nerwen and Greenie could be wolves who wanted to draw attention to it, but it looks more like just commenting on the first real action of the day. What happens afterwards is far more suspicious. Legate because he was the only one who voted (and said) for Lottie, saying she looked more wolvish. He could be a wolf just evening the votes up and seeing whatever way the wind blows, but he was the only one who actually stepped up for Shasta and put some action behind his words by voting for Lottie.

Lottie, I seriously think she is an innocent bystander caught up in a sneaky wolf plot. Because the other thing that is suspicious yesterday is how the convo turned into Lottie and Shasta being "wolf on wolf attack." Leaving the door open for when Shasta turned up innocent the wolves can just say "That must mean Lottie's the wolf!" for the same equally weak reasons that were used against Shasta.

Cobbler suspects and could possibly vote for if I'm not entirely confident in a wolf.

Wilwa
Nogrod


I mentioned Wilwa and my last post and shall wait for a response, but right now that self-vote looks like a cobbler signaling wolves more than anything.

I didn't say much about Nogrod yesterday because I thought then he was acting differently, "different" as in strange and cobblery. However, I didn't want to draw much attention to it because it wouldn't be the first time the seer pretended to be the cobbler to protect from being killed at night. We know now Nog isn't the seer so all of his strange behavior and today insistance to look at those he thinks chose the "moral high ground" to not vote for Shasta just looks straight up cobblery. I mean if I was the cobbler, I would definitely assume there were some wolves hiding in all those Shasta votes, and not knowing who they would be, would try to get attention to those who didn't bandwagon.

The rest of the bunch who are neither coming off as people I would not want to vote for nor the cobbler, and thus possible wolves who I may cast a vote for...

Glirdan
Skip
Inzil
Pitch
Ozban
Eonwe


I don't think I've left out anyone if I did they will also fall under this last list since that means I've clearly forgotten that you are even in this village.

Of 'em Inzil and Pitch look the most wolvish. Pitch for Shasta's posts and how he changed his position on the Shasta-Lottie affair. I'd like to hear from him, but he seems under the weather today. Hope you feel better, but I'll consider it only equally fair treatment to vote for you without being able to come on and say anything in defense. I will now and forever refer to this act as giving someone "The Shasta treatment."

Inzil because he was one of the ones who gave a pat to Greenie's post and vote Shasta. Even if it was only the 2nd vote on him, on Day 1, 2 votes usually a bandwagon doth make and that sparked the end result.
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