WWXXXV: Werewolves among the Wolf-men

[Brinniel]

"And xyzzy, it is too late for that...even before you stated this, votes had been placed. However, I do not find you wolvish for this, though you are not completely in the clear. But I think a wolf would be more clever than to put out such an absurd statement...

"I am voting now:

++tgwbs

"And I know some of you have suspected him as well..."

[Nogrod]

"I think I will join this wagon toDay...

++ Xyzzy

From Isabell we can get some readouts anyway and Xyzzy's last comments make him look pretty bad. I'm much more hopeful with this now than I was twenty minutes ago."

[Nogrod]

"Maybe Xyzzy just couldn't make a rivalling case that would have sounded believable enough?"

[Mithalwen]

Time is against me to resolve this logic problem .. but Xyzzy's no lynch plan is ludicrous - and I don't know about TGWBS but his maths is better.

++ Xyzzy

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

The outlaws turned to Xyzzy, who has been sitting quietly in the corner, listening to their talk and looking from one on another like a little animal when a pack of wolves approaches.
The grim faces of the outlaws did not seem at all comfortable.
"You were just waiting for us to kill each other," the guy who be short spoke, "right? Hiding in the shadows, so that no one notices you!"
"But - "
"You are a werewolf! We know it!" yelled Rikae, picking up a stone and throwing it at Xyzzy. The man raised his hands to cover his face, but the stone hit him in cheek. "No!" he shouted with pain, but at that moment also the others were picking up stones from the ground. "Catch this!" shouted Macalaure. Stones were flying from all sides, and slowly, Xyzzy slumped down to the ground and fell asleep.

"He's dead," said Nogrod. "He cannot harm us anymore."
"But could he?" said Lhuna, coming closer to the dead body. No change was to be seen on the face of the dead. "He was innocent!" shouted Isabellkya. "Innocent, and you killed him! Fools! Now there are still two of them wolves around!"
Silence fell on all. "But -" said Brinn. "But – what are we going to do, then?"
Nogrod looked at the young outlaw sideways. "What should we do? Sleep, as always. You don't have to act like a little girl, even though you look like one!"
Surprisingly to everyone, Brinn blushed. "Hey, what is it?" said Nogrod. "What's that, m'boy?"
"I am a girl," said Brinn.
"Whoa!" shouted Macalaure. "A girl?"
Brinn turned on him, looking angered. "Yes! And so what? Heck, forget it! Does it matter? I can fight, I can swear, I can live in the wilderness."
"I always thought him – her – strange," said Rikae. "Oh, you look like a man indeed, my girl."
Mithalwen nodded. "Everyone of us is an outlaw. Our fates are manifold."
"Not everyone is just an outlaw," spoke Nogrod's voice, reminding them of their main concern. "And where is Gil-Galad and the Dwarf, anyway?"
All looked to the entrance as if they expected the two to enter at that very moment. But the entrance was empty, only a sudden cold wind of the incoming night's wind blew inside, stealing heat of their bodies.
"Let's go to sleep," said Lhuna, picking up a blanket that Xyzzy left in the corner. "I am terribly tired. Maybe they will come back later at night."

The inhabitants of Amon Rûdh – dead:

Ibun son of Mîm, killed by a Werewolf on Night 1
Shasta alias Saeros, outnumbered and stabbed on Day 1
Xyzzy the Outlaw, stoned to death on Day 2

The inhabitants of Amon Rûdh – living:
Mîm the Petty Dwarf, outside the hill for an unexpectably prolonged period
Rikae
Nogrod
Macalaure
Isabellkya
Brinniel
Lhunardawen
Gil-Galad, outside the hill for an unexpectably prolonged period
the guy who be short
Mithalwen

Night 3 begins. Outlaws, stay low. Two Captains, you may talk. Wolves, you may plot. Whoever has anything to send to me, please do so as soon as possible.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Sun rose above Doriath in the east and its light goldened the crown of Amon Rûdh. It was a sunny, windy morning and just light clouds were moving swiftly in the skies.
Eight outlaws were sleeping in the halls of stone. Closest to the entrance was lying Mithalwen, curled in a coat of fur. Right on the other side of the main hall there was Nogrod's place, the old man was about to awake, as he was used to in the early hours. Behind a junction in one of the shorter corridors leading out of the room, Brinn's face was hardly seen under a pile of quilts.
In the long corridor leading down to Mîm's hidden smithy, Macalaure slept restlessly. He was muttering something to himself in his sleep, rolling from one side to the other. Even deeper in the mountain, Isabellkya was breathing low near the entrance to the Dwarf's chamber, blocked by a stone now when its occupant was away.
The guy who be short slept alone in one of the smaller halls, a sword lying by his side. But his sleep was a deep one, despite the morning hour, so even if something was happening, he probably won't rise to defend himself. In a nearby room Rikae was lying, holding her staff even in deep sleep.
Lhunardawen rested comfortably on a large pile of sacks full of straw, her tangled black hair spread all over and also full of straw that somehow got out of the sacks.

The only ones who were not present already were Gil-Galad and Mîm. But all the other outlaws were here, alive, some asleep, but first yawnings were already heard as the early risers awoke. Their third day in Amon Rûdh has dawned.

The inhabitants of Amon Rûdh – dead:

Ibun son of Mîm, killed by a Werewolf on Night 1
Shasta alias Saeros, outnumbered and stabbed on Day 1
Xyzzy the Outlaw, stoned to death on Day 2

The inhabitants of Amon Rûdh – living:
Mîm the Petty Dwarf, outside the hill for an unexpectably prolonged period
Rikae
Nogrod
Macalaure
Isabellkya
Brinniel
Lhunardawen
Gil-Galad, outside the hill for an unexpectably prolonged period
the guy who be short
Mithalwen

Day 3 begins. Nightly walkers, stop talking. Everyone, awake!

[Nogrod]

Nogrod woke up and eager to find ot some news he took a swift glance around him... he counted the sleeping outlaws. Everyone's here... the dwarves chamber..., he half ran there only to see everyone deep in sleep. Now where else...

Finally Nogrod came to sit by the pool in the early morning sunshine. No one was dead but Mîm and Gil hadn't returned either.

And everythnig looks so nice and neat, like there was no struggle, no nothing... Maybe our wolves missed this Night by sleeping over it? Or Gil is one and away and the second one missed this Night alone? This needs to be thought... as soon as I can get myself wake well enough...

Nogrod fell into his thoughts which neared half-sleep, but he would wake up in a short time...

[the guy who be short]

Guy was woken earlier than his usual time by nightmares of werewolves. He sat up, bolt upright, and looked around in fear.

Nogrod looked over at him and smiled. "Everybody's alive! They're all still sleeping, but I've counted; nobody's missing save Mim and Gil. Most peculiar..."

Guy didn't entirely trust him and counted himself. So it is true, he thought. We were lucky last night, but this night has been even better! Although... this lack of nightly death does make it difficult to calculate who the wolves may be. We have no records or insight into how they think.

"I think you're right," he said to Nogrod, who was the only other one awake, though one or two others were stirring. "The wolves must have slept through this night, for there is no hint of any struggle. It does indeed seem that we have inexperienced or flippant wolves, taking the night before into account too.

That said, Mr Nogrod, I have a few metaphorical bones to pick with you. But I'll get there soon..."

[Nogrod]

"Ahh, guy... well if you are so sure about the order of the oncominmg lynches then why not. But I'm afraid we need to give a few thoughts to this before we enter the world of metaphors. I mean we still have the two lupine creatures unidentified and sleep seems to haunt us all here. You know..."

Nogrod made a pause while he tried to articulate carefully what he was about to say.

"Have you ever wondered about the spiritual world? I mean the world of pure information and the routes the Valar uses to organise it? I had a dream that there was a disturbance in the spiritworld last Night, in the world of energy and data. I do see funny dreams every once in a while..."

Nogrod shook his head and half-laughed to his own words.

"But just think if our wolves need something like a spiritual support from the master of Angband to break this charm under which we all sleep the Nights - to make their misdeeds? Now if there was actually a disturbance in that field of energy they might have failed not because of their own fault?

I know you may think this an old man talking others the contents of his own age-old imagination... But this I still wonder... whether it's so easy I think you wish to think. I mean I thought the same thought first myself and felt relieved. But that was before I remembered my dream last Night.

And there's always the possibility that we have just forgotten any number of small details we should now hold clearly in front of our minds...

So you see, I'd really like to give this some thought before I trust my first reaction..."

Nogrod fell quiet for a while.

[Brinniel]

Brinn awoke tangled in quilts after an uneasy night of dreaming that every one of the outlaws were being viciously attacked by the wolves. She was unhappy after yesterday, having her gender exposed....now everyone would think her as a wimpy little girl. She sighed and pulled off her hood, running her fingers through her closely cropped hair. Replacing the hood, Brinn wandered over to where tgwbs and Nogrod sat, still half asleep. She looked around at the sleeping others and began a head count...eight of them. Wait, eight? All of them were still alive. And there was no evidence of a struggle.

"So the werewolves did not attack?" Brinn muttered. "But what does this mean? Could it be that our wolves are sleepers....Izzy maybe, and Gil-Galad who is still away? Or perhaps the wolves are more clever and actually chose not to attack in order to fool us all into thinking they are actually sleepers..."

Brinn rubbed her eyes, feeling rather frustrated.

"A death last Night would've almost been welcome. At least then we would have a clue on who the wolves could be. But now, I'm completely stumped."

[the guy who be short]

Guy frowned. "Would a werewolf really decide to kill nobody to trick the village? I do not think it likely, Brinn. It is always in their interests to kill, I think.

And Nogrod, I do sometimes have dreams of a similar nature to yours. A disturbance in the spiritworld would prevent the wolves from awakening at night, as the power of Morgoth would be unable to reach them. However, I had no such dream, no knowledge of such a breach in the spiritworld last night. Did anybody else have such dreams?"

[the guy who be short]

Guy looked at Nogrod once again and voiced his thoughts.

"Something you said yesterday caught my attention as I was mulling over the events of yesterday in my dreams. You said

But [guy] might just be Androg whose special mission is to get rid of Beleg - whom he mistook me earlier toDay and then backed off when he realised yhay no bandwaggong was starting.

This caught my attention for two reasons.

Firstly, the claim that I was attempting to create a bandwagon is clearly wrong. Note that, in the time between my feeling you were guilty and changing my mind to feel you were not guilty, you and I and Rikae were the only ones present. It is true to say that no bandwagonning was starting, but only because nobody was there to join a bandwagon! If I had sought to start a bandwagon, surely I would not have changed my mind before most people had had a chance to think about what I'd said. Indeed, Rikae, the only other person awake at the time, did actually start to suspect you, so if anything, you must say that a bandwagon was starting.

The second thing I noticed is your talk of this Androg character, whom you seem to have invented. I do not know why, but the reasons I can think of are: to distract us, or because you know he exists. In the former case, you are a wolf, and in the latter, you are against the interests of the village.

Now, this may sound farfetched to some, but I know you are very cunning, Nogrod. If you were a wolf, I could see you planning your vote for me and the reasoning for it the next day to make you seem innocent - a perfect disguise!

When I awoke this morning, the fact that none had died cast doubt into my mind, for I could not see you forgoing a kill through idleness, Nogrod. However, your claim to have experienced spiritual difficulties in awakening at night fits my thought that you are a wolf.

And now, what do you say in your defence? For often your honeyed tongue convinces me that my thoughts are wrong, and so I wish to hear what you say before I come to any final conclusion."

Satisfied, Guy crossed his arms and settled back onto a wall.

[Nogrod]

"I don't know guy... this is interesting indeed. I've done some calculations as I started fearing exactly the same black plan of Morgoth in here which Brinn suggested. But if the wolves were that cunning that they intentionally skipped one Night to enhance the general mood of lynching the quiets they must have stopped short in their thinking. I mean it is a beautiful plan from the face value of it, it's just pure genius to make us run like madmen to lynch the quiets and run out of lynches. That story would have been told for centuries.

But there is a problem here in this plan and that is that we have already gained one more Day if things go badly and if we get it right toDay the last wolf is in trouble indeed with so many of us around left.

Now my initial thought is the following - and as an intial thought it will be subject to change as I have more time to think and you others voice your points I haven't possibly considered. We might do well to lynch either Gil or Izzy toDay.

But if toDay brings us no gain, we should do well to at least ready ourselves to refocus on the next Day. Happily there should be three Days to get it right at least one time - toDay that's already neatly 1/3 possibility and increasing, and to that hopefully some brain-activity can be added to adjust the ratio.

But there is now the downside I've been a bit worried all the time although it has passed my mind only seldomly. And that is that if Turín's and Nienor's fates are intertwined in the drastic manner I'm afraid they are, then losing one of them loses two of us and then we only have two Days left if we don't catch a wolf before it.

But two Days we have for sure... if anything's sure in this crazy cave..."

Immediately Nogrod realised that he and the short guy had been seaking on top of each other.

"Sorry guy, I'll come to your questions in a short while."

With that Nogrod stood up and went inside to get his pipe trying to awaken the remeberance of what guy had said while he himself had been busy talking...

[Nogrod]

"What have I been talking about? 1/3? My brain seems to be abandoning me... 2/9 I mean... so one from every 4½... not so promising but better than when we started. If that is any joy to anyone in the first place. Odds and security do not walk hand in hand everytime..."

[Nogrod]

Nogrod came back puffing his pipe and sat back down to the boulder he had sat on earlier. Guy looked at him questioningly, waiting for his answer. After puffing a few small smokerings Nogrod took the pipe from his lips and looked at guy.

"Now let's think back a little. You remeber Shasta we lynched the first evening? It turned out he was Saeros - an archenemy of Turín our other protector and helper. But there was nothing about cobblery or something like that in any evidence we have - little though that evidence is. Now we have another helper as well, Beleg. Now I just wonder whether he has a similar kind of archenemy among us... that would be Androg then, wouldn't it?

Now what is their nature and part in this madness we're in? I have no knowledge of that but I would be amazed if they were allied with Morgoth's forces. I can see Saeros hating Turín or Androg hating Beleg but it's a bit farfetched to think them allying with the Dark powers just to get rid of these two honourable men.

So it must be something different and thence I thought - and indeed expressly said it yesterDay - that we should not lynch Androg as I believe he will be counted as an innocent in the end. So your theory about me preparing a vote for you in advance kind of falls down at the same time.

But if you manage to convince me that you are not indeed Androg, the situation is different and then I could vote you for sure. Your hastiness to jump on this "incompetetive wolves"-theory, your very detailed defence of my note about your eagerness to jump on me yesterDay and the sudden change, your pre-emptive defence with your theory that I was preparing a vote for you - which was faulty as I showed you - all speak that you're a bit hasty now. I know you young men are always hurrying to action and to conclusions but I just need to think again whether that's only your recklessness or something more sinister..."

With that Nogrod smiled to the guy and took a deep inhale of smoke resulting in violent coughing.

"Gah... I should quit this smoking... But anyhow. You managed to waste my yesterDay's precious waking hours talking about myself and at the same time you managed to lure many others into that as well. Now I think I have more pressing matters to think than these. I'm sorry lad, but I really think we should concentrate on the wolves. Or is the distraction your plan, so a cobbler then after all even if I'm not yet ready to buy that explanation?"

[OOC: Darn metaphors... But I tried to say it in RPG-style. It seems that I didn't succeed or then tgwbs is trying to make a mountain out of a molehill for whatever reason of his. The reputation system was dismantled and then readjusted during our Night as some of you must have noticed. The Downs were offline during that project. I actually checked the times just now and it actually seems to have lasted only something like 1½ hours but as I hadn't been online in the morning (RL) and then just tried to get in a few times before it actually opened again 4PMGMT - I thought that it might have lasted for god knows how many hours - and thence my suspicions. So now I think the no-kill was either due to mistake or deliberate plan - not the "condition of the 'Downs".

I will delete this OOC answer to guy if Legate wishes after people have seen this. I just don't want to delve into explaining this in RPG-style and using the next half an hour to it - and then the rest of the Day arguing about this metaphore with guy...]

[the guy who be short]

Guy yawned. "I think I need another nap soon, but before I go, I shall reply to you, Nogrod.

I think what you say about Saeros does make sense actually - It would have been nice if you had articulated it earlier. If you did, I missed it. I presumed Saeros was simply a cobbler-type person.

You said:

I thought that we should not lynch Androg as I believe he will be counted as an innocent in the end. So your theory about me preparing a vote for you in advance kind of falls down at the same time.

I do not see why you thinking we should not lynch Androg on Day 2 disproves my theory that you planned a controversial vote before Day 1 - not necessarily for me, before the Day had begun - to appear to be an innocent trying to save his own skin. The two are sompletely distinct in my eyes; doubtless there is a link you have not explained, but I cannot see it. Please tell us what it is.

The last thing I said before your reply was a test of sorts. You have failed it. I believe that, if you were innocent, you would have accepted that I was not trying to start a bandwagon yesterday given the circumstances and you would probably have apologised. Instead, you have ignored this issue. This makes me feel you misrepresented me on purpose, and your eagerness to ignore the issue today makes me feel even surer about your wolvishness."

He turned to address the rest of the group.

"I must go rest for several hours now. I feel that I shall vote for Nogrod before the end of Day. However, I would like to see what some non-Nogrod people make of last Night's occurences first."

[Nogrod]

"Oh, I do apologise for one thing guy. It is this Androg-thing. I thought you were saying I would use that Androg-stuff to ground my vote-to-come on you toDay, not that I would use it to explain my earlier vote... Sorry. That was a misunderstanding. But then again I see no reason why I should come up with multiple different versions of my reasons to explain my vote on you on Day1 as I had already given my reason. For honest people the actual reason is enough. If it's not understood one may have to explain it a few times but that normally suffices - as I thought it had done in the end. So that kind of interpretation of your point didn't even cross my mind.

But for the subject you raised I see no reason to make apologies for. I still think you were up to no good when you suddenly - and quite heavily jumped on me with phrases like:

I feel quite certain of your wolvery, and:
so I must conclude that you are a wolf, trying to mislead and gain trust as early as possible

Not to mention that the first of these "conclusions" was based on:

I do not know why you are so sure that there is a wolf among those who contribute so little, Nogrod. However, what you say is true: if these people are wolves, their silence means they will likely live a long time, avoiding suspicion.

Which I find especially curious because in the end of that speech you deducted that:

this would lead me to believe that the quiet trio are in fact innocents

And before and after that you have been possibly even louder in calling the lynching of the quiets and also voted for a quiet member both Days... So you used them just as a tool for your argument at that spot when you tried to get me lynched? And as no one took your bait you fell back to the "lynch the quiets" tactics - from which you're coming back to me again, right?


If you would be innocent, why would you tie these two things together? Either I'm innocent and the quiets are not or then vice versa? It sounds very much like a wolf who knows we all are innocents! And that should make me think all this again myself...

So maybe you've read my concerns (or thought about them open yourself) that Turín maybe a quiet one and thence lynching any quiets is good for you, and as you know my innocence I should be dealt with as well as I'm on your trail?

Not the worst theory I've had these past Days.


Oh and the second "I must conclude"... It was based on this discussion whether we should lynch someone who will die anyway by the higher forces if we don't have any good suspicions on anyone else:

The same could be achieved if everybody abstained from voting, so nobody was lynched at all. Village numbers could stay high for as long as possible, but in the end the Wolves would consume us all

And that surely is your own fabrication. Not lynching anyone is stupid - see what happened to Xyzzy when he tried that idea... but still you actually came back to it later and accused me of speaking such nonsense.

Now why, comes the question?

Your stuff on my "self-preservation vs. common good" was just plain ridiculous, your trial - that has succeeded very well indeed, hats off to you for that - to engage my time to solely answering your farfetched and self-fabricated points of "mine" and all these twisted arguments you've used to achieve it... Now why?


I know you're an intelligent person and that bothers me. Were you a wolf you wouldn't probably be this bold or this one-track minded... Trying to focus on actively lynching either me or Turín from amongst the quiet might be a good tactics for one wolf if the other one has slipped under everyone's radar. Or maybe my first idea of Androg was right after all and in that case you should not be lynched - if I'm guessing right the function of that role.

This is a hard one. I can't say I trust you to be a wolf but there is something that is wrong and twisted with your speeches and most probably also behind it. It would be quite fun indeed if almost in a row my family's member would catch a wolf of your family. Almost too good to be true?

But let this be the last from me to guy for a while as I need some sleep soon and to have some energy after I wake up to look at some other things as well. For that surely is the thing I'm going to do.

Even if guy is a wolf - which I really am undecided right now as fex. I think guy would not waste a kill during the Night so easily and thence the question of Gil and Izzy comes to haunt me again - there is anyway two wolves around and we should have some new ideas. Now this discussion has centered within a very small perimeter leaving many people outside any scrutiny.

Like Lhuna and some others said: we need to look at everyone. And at least under my radar there are more people right now as inside."

Nogrod nodded to those awake outside and went to his bed to have a sleep.

[Nogrod]

Nogrod tried to sleep but the sleep didn't come. His head was too full with differnt thoughts that criss-crossed his mind. Eventually he rose to sit and voiced his mind.

"I think we have an easy solution and a hard one to choose from toDay.

The easy one is that Gil and Izzy are the wolves and Turín indeed is no sleeper as we say but the seer who had been thence "sleeping" ie. seeing dreams. So when we were told that Beleg woke Turín up it only meant to hint that he was a seer - as that same story revealed to us that Beleg is a ranger to guard us. I mean we were never told what their roles were but to help us and revealing both roles would be logical. Revealing one role and just hinting at the laziness of another would sound more improbable...

The hard one is that the hint of Turín's sleepiness actually refers to him being not at the level of his duties and that he's failing us, but that neither of the wolves is Gil or Izzy. That would be something cunning wolves could use to their favour, taking even such drastic measures as to intentionally failing a kill as to make us kill a quiet one eg. lynch Turín and possibly with him Nienor. But that would also mean that our wolves - or at least another one of them would feel her/himself quite secure right now. And that would need setting our minds totally a new.

The hard solution would not be too foolhardy for the wolves. That means they could have thought of this and thence this scenario is possible as well.

If Turín and Nienor die as a pair as I think is probable on the grounds of the hints given to us, the wolves have 50% chance of a jackpot of two innocents killed toDay - one of them possibly the seer - if we lynch a quiet one.

And even if we managed to choose the "non-Turín" quiet toDay, the chance the next Day is pretty favourable to them as it would be 2 against 5 or 4, and with two votes they could do a lot in voting as most of us seem to have different views about the possible culprits. And they would have the chance of either lynching by Day or killing by Night two of us if Nienor or Turín is hit with those four trials (toDay, toNight, nextDay, nextNight - so a host of possibilities to hit them and lesser chances of not hitting them).

On the next Day we would probably be lost - if we weren't lost already by then. They could capitulate together any bad vote. One innocent voting another innocent would basically lead to the two wolves securing their win.

So not a bad plan indeed. Why do you guy say the wolves wouldn't skip a kill? In this situation it seems like a very good move.

If the harder solution is right I just hope the wolves have counted this far that Turín is a quiet one and that he actually isn't, as the story we were told on the first Night here could indicate also that he's just a seer dreaming his dream... and not a sleepy-gifted.

And happily even this at least to me newly discovered uncertainty - if the wolves haven't thought of this already - might make also them a bit more worried and tense about their situation.

It's coming more and more down to Turín and Beleg now. Depending on their feeling of security, their knowledge and the direness of our lynching-situation toDay from their perspective they should be really thoughtful as to when to reveal their knowledge. Hopefully not toDay but toMorrow is the last Day for it.

And let's hope Turín's sleep meant he is a seer and not that he is failing us. Indeed I feel more comfortable with this interpretation right now.

But the hard choice is selecting which of these solutions is the right one - or is there a third one...

I'll now try to sleep on it at last."

[Isabellkya]

Izzy opened her eyes and rubbed them to expel the last remnants of her slumber. She headed towards the others and took a seat. She reflected on the events of yesterDay and yesterNight. She shook her head at the ruthless slaughter of the innocent outlaw Xyzzy, as well as thanked good fortune for bringing yet another kill-free evening. She turned her gaze towards the elderly woman and found her sleeping; so she spoke to the air.

'Rikae, it is a bit suspicious that you would want to put my head on the chopping block for my ancestors; however you fail to do the same for the others who have similar ancestors. Whether that is because your eye sight is failing, or you are a fellow wolf and would rather not call attention to them; I have not yet decided. I also find your almost last minute vote switch a bit eyebrow raising. When it comes to the wolves, they typically don't care who gets the chop, as long as it is not one of their own. I find that those with purer hearts than this group of outlaws; tend to stick with their original decisions. I question why you changed, when you had thought me so suspicious and wolfish.
Some of the outlaws in this place are so filled with wind, by the time a person has collected her thoughts; the day is already done''

Izzy turned her gaze towards the old man.

'Nogrod; I get the feeling of jumpiness with you. I can't put my finger on it, but it just seems to me that you jump about in your posts and reasonings for things. I as well raise my eyebrow in your direction for theses tangents which you seem to get wrapped up in frequently. The downside of focusing on the silent ones for the chopping block, is that you forget about the vocal ones who will manipulate you in your decisions. I as well agree with Guy; in that the wolves wasting a kill to trick our group would just be a waste of a kill; and take them longer to try and make lunch meat out of us all'

She continued her circling gaze and came upon Lhuna who was sleeping, and thus spoke to the air once more.

'I agree with your thoughts on the behaviors of wolves. It would be too obvious of a strategy for a wolf to hide amongst the quiet. I think in this particular group, the wolves would be forced to contribute, as it has become a habit to look upon the silent ones, or sleepers first and fore most. I think the wolves would risk too much by trying to hide and be silent.'

'Macalaure, unless I have been mistaken, are you not yourself on the borderline of the 'silent' ones? You have either said very little, or your speeches have been of little substance.'

'Guy, you worry me a bit. Your sudden jump from a heated debate with Nogrod, to being almost chummy with him, it worries me.'


Izzy rose from the rock and stretched. She turned and headed towards the pond.

[Lhunardawen]

Tickled by the straw caught up in her once again tangled hair - it couldn't seem to stay untangled for a long time - Lhuna stirred, but kept her eyes closed and remained lying down. She was quite afraid to find out that another Outlaw had died the Night before, and wanted to delay that knowledge for as long as possible. But she caught from snippets of conversation around her that no one had been killed. No one! She couldn't quite believe it. She decided that she was probably dreaming, and fell promptly back to sleep.

Later she got up, brushed the straw from her hair with her fingers, and looked around. It wasn't a dream! She mused aloud: "But how can this be? Can't the wolves feel frightened that the odds are against them so far as numbers are concerned? There is sense in the theory that this is a strategy to get the quiets lynched...but no one would be this foolhardy a few Days into this situation! Surely the wolves would find their strength in dwindling numbers of foes, although it risks their being exposed more easily...

Think about it. Their choice of kills could be manipulated to pin the blame on the quiets if they are so cunning. It would be a waste of opportunity not to kill someone when they have the chance! That leads me to wonder if we really have inexperienced wolves among us...or something happened last Night that they did not expect, and so prevented them from making a kill."

She sat down, overwhelmed with gratefulness that no one had died, and disbelief for the same reason. She stayed quiet as she let her thoughts organise themselves into words.

[Brinniel]

Brinn listened carefully on what the others had to say. She shivered and wrapped her cloak tightly around her arms, for today was cloudy and chilly.

"We cannot say for sure what the events (or lack of) really mean. It could be a tricksy strategy of some cunning wolves, or it could simply be a mistake on their part...it is difficult to say. But if there is a quiet wolf, I have my doubts that there is more than one. tgwbs says the chances the wolves would strategically do a no-kill is unlikely, but I disagree. Yes, it would be a risky move on their part, but I think some of the reasoning Nogrod has behind this makes sense. We cannot completely eliminate the possibility.

"And guy, I do not think you started a bandwagon with your vote...that came much later after xyzzy made his odd statement. Though, that doesn't make you not suspicious. If anything, as a wolf, you could've voted him thinking he wouldn't be lynched, and try to get away with it using the simple reasoning that he is too silent and under the radar. And while I don't feel nearly as confident of your wolfishness as I did yesterDay, something about what you say makes me uneasy....call it a gut feeling if you may.

"Of Nogrod, I'm not sure what to think. For some time, he's been coming up with so many different theories and solutions. Either he is an innocent who is honestly trying to do what he can to help, or he is wolf attempting to confuse us all..."

Brinn paused to stretch and rub her neck, which remained stiff from the previous night's sleep. After a moment, she continued:

"I know we're thinking of the possibility that a wolf could be among the silent ones, but if we choose to lynch one of them, I will not support the lynching of Gil-Galad. This is the second Day he has been gone, and currently I do not see enough evidence pointing to his guilt. If we were to lynch him, we would find little clues, as he has said so little.

"As for Izzy (who does not seem quite so silent of late), she no longer seems nearly as innocent to me as she did yesterDay. I do not like her defensive jump on Rikae. Plus, she claims Mac is on the borderline of silent when he has spoken twelve times against her five, most of which have more content (and votes) than what she has given."

Then Brinn stopped talking and began to draw in the dirt, this time with her finger. After a few minutes, she looked up.

"Here...I have made up another record of yesterDay's votes. I don't know how much help it will be, but hopefully we can make something out of it...we have little else to go off of:

Rikae: ++Izzy (Izzy: 1)
tgwbs: ++xyzzy (Izzy: 1, xyzzy: 1)
Lhuna: ++Nogrod (Izzy: 1, xyzzy: 1, Nogrod: 1)
Rikae: --Izzy (xyzzy: 1, Nogrod: 1)
Rikae: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 2, Nogrod: 1)
Mac: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 3, Nogrod: 1)
Brinn: ++tgwbs (xyzzy: 3, Nogrod: 1, tgwbs: 1)
Nogrod: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 4, Nogrod: 1, tgwbs: 1)
Mithalwen: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 5, Nogrod: 1, tgwbs: 1)

Didn't vote: xyzzy, Izzy, Gil-Galad

"Based on votes alone, I would say Nogrod and Mithalwen are most suspicious for safely jumping on the bandwagon at the last minute..."

EDIT: X-ed with Lhuna

[Lhunardawen]

Lhuna read the writings of the newly revealed girl, Brinn, as they came.

"You make a good point," she finally said when the latter was done, "about Nogrod and Mith. This makes Nogrod all the more suspicious to me than he already is. As for Mith...we have to consider that she could not fully participate in our discussions, thus her rather hasty vote. But that does not rid her of its possible consequences."

She stood up and stretched, and, as she was wont to do, started walking around.

"It's been a couple of Days, and Gil's absence is now making me uneasy. I know he has valid reasons for leaving, but all the same...we need him here. Not just to help us discover who the wolves are, but also to scrutinise him and learn if he is or is not one of them. His prolonged absence casts doubt on the possibility that he is a wolf, but he needs not be here if his partner is. I curse him to a swift and dreadful death if he actually is a lycanthrope.

"Another thing that worries me is this spectacle between Nogrod and tgwbs. I am now almost certain that one of them is a wolf - or both of them, I certainly wouldn't put it past them. I had been uneasy of Nogrod yesterDay, and I remain so, and it is strange behaviour that tgwbs should also place himself in the limelight..."

Lhuna scratched her head and frowned.

"It's confusing. They're both being hasty, Nogrod feels furry, but he makes a good point about tgwbs's inconsistency. I can't make a conclusion now, but they're both high on my list, and I'll need to see the rest of this, as well as the others.

"Brinn's now no longer as suspicious to me as before, having heard more from her - in my dreams, it seems - after I fell asleep last Night. As for the rest, not much has changed since yesterDay, but that's probably because I haven't spent enough time recalling their statements. I particularly wish to hear more from Mith toDay."

She strolled again towards the pool outside to be alone with her thoughts, but all the same trying to keep a keen ear on the voices inside the house.

[Macalaure]

Macalaure was puzzled to see everybody alive when he woke up. Has some brave man stopped the wolves another time? he wondered, but then it came to his mind that nobody saw or heard anything and it seemed clear that the wolves have been idle this night. For what reason?, he asked himself.

"It's possible that the wolves forwent their kill out of sleepiness, which would point towards Isabellkya and Gil. However, I cannot imagine that these two are exactly our two wolves. The most probable scenario would, to me, be, that one of the wolves is one of these two and the other is somebody else, whom forces from outside the circles of this world kept from pursuing his gruesome goal.

It's possible that the wolves forwent their kill due to some wicked plan. Who would be so reckless as to solely rely on his ability to mislead everybody into thinking him innocent with no real solid evidence present? This could only be an outlaw who trusts himself to twist everybody else's mind, for which he would have to be a quite vocal and confident one and one who is listened to by most."

After having said this, he gave Nogrod and Guy a suspicious look.

"Theories, theories, theories. Too much of them." he said, while looking at Nogrod, and he sighed audibly.

"This talk of Andróg and Saeros is interesting, though. As we know, Beleg's bow was taken yesterday. Might that thief be Andróg? Was it Saeros' task to steal Túrin's sword (I don't see Túrin as a seer, but very clearly as a hunter)? Might there even be Nellas among us, silently spying on us at night, when we are unaware? And if Andróg owns the mighty Belthronding now, does he know how to put it to a proper use?

(ooc, due to lack of metaphorical skill: )Concerning sleepy Túrin, I think that was purely for narrational purpose. If indeed he had been idle the Gods would not have mentioned it, because it obviously took no effect. I fail to see why the character of Túrin should be a seer."

[Nogrod]

Nogrod was getting back to his senses. Even if he had slept clearly to the afternoon only a few people had spoken. Now this is never going to work if you people imitate Gil this passionately...

"I have a few short comments, then I have to take some more sleep... but after that I'm going to make a real effort with you others.

Some people here have voiced somewhat astonishing ideas about people's voting that I just can't bear listening anymore. And the danger is that if no one corrects those thoughts someone might actually base one's vote on that kind of obviously faulty speculation.

So Izzy, you suspected Rikae because she changed her vote and said:

When it comes to the wolves, they typically don't care who gets the chop, as long as it is not one of their own. I find that those with purer hearts than this group of outlaws; tend to stick with their original decisions.

The first sentence is absolutely right but how can you then deduce the second one from it as it should be the opposite? The wolves can look consistent and stick with their decisions as they know what they're doing unlike us. It is a mark of an innocent villager thinking for the common good to be able to change one's mind when one realises that one is possibly doing a mistake. An innocent should think first and foremost who is s/he helping to lynch in concrete terms and whether it is a good decision or not - not about showing a consistent record of sticking to whatever original decision which may have been done without some knowledge s/he has gained later or which has turned out to look bad after some additional thinking."

Then Nogrod turned to Lhuna and looked at her for a while just wondering about her and what she might be up to. Finally he addressed her.

"No Lhuna, Brinn's last one was not a good point. Indeed she didn't even offer it as a point in a way I interpret you are trying to twist it... and if my memory serves me right this was not the first time you're happy to jump on repeating quite bad points if they further your personal goals, right? I don't know but I will sure check this out later toDay.

Tell me Lhuna, were you an honourable person who would not be sleeping around the deadline, wouldn't you like to hear all before you make your vote? Wouldn't it be your duty to not vote hastily but to see what is going on and try to help things turn out the good way? How would you as innocent have voted during those last minutes yourself? If you had voted for someone else than Xyzzy who was already dead at that point I'm sure there would be a throng of voices to ask you now "why you did you make such a throw-away vote, aren't you lupine then?" Trust me, I got quite enough of that yesterDay... But had you then decided to just join the waggon, there would be your kind of people asking now whether that deepens their suspicions of you because you voted so safe?

So what kind of vote in the end of yesterDay would not be suspicious to your eyes?

Aren't you using double-standards here by first stating myself to be suspicious because I didn't vote for someone who was about to be lynched (Day1 voting) and now (Day2 voting) because I did vote for the one who was getting lynched?"

Before withdrawing to his blanket he glanced at Macalaure and smiled.

"Oh Mac, you can't be serious with that proposal... Just look at me and my old bones and listen to this discussion around us. So you say I might be one who is feeling confident to twist everyone's mind into my favour while in reality everything I say seem to get half the people suspecting me.

Hah..."

Nogrod turned around under his blanket.

"This lack of arguments is killing us..." he mumbled half-sleeping.

[Rikae]

Rikae finally was awakend by the voices of the others. She tended to sleep longer, almost as if some part of her was in a place where morning came later...

"As I see it, there are 3 possibilities:
1. The thief used the bow to protect the wolves' intended victim.
You all claim that this did not hoppen because there is no sign of struggle; but it could be that someone wants us to remain uncertain about the role of the thief..."
Rikae looked at the sky accusingly...
"In that case, the wolves are likely inexperienced, and/or Beleg and the thief quite astute.
2. The wolves killed no one for strategic reasons. If this is the case, it points very strongly toward Nogrod; it's just the sort of scheme he would devise, and, as Macalaure points out, he is probably confident in his ability to control us with words alone.
3. The wolves missed the kill by accident.
This is quite likely, especially considering this; I don't know about you others, but I awoke in the middle of the night to an unnatural silence; followed by a brief but terrible storm that left everything in disarray. It washed away my emerald necklace, that I thought was safe in my bag (it was a gift from my dearest friends, and I'm quite sad to lose it); perhaps this storm also prevented the wolves from making their kill?
Regarding our protectors, I don't know how much help Beleg is to us without his bow, but, at the very least, he knows the identities of Turin and the innocent he successfully protected. If we continue to have no leads, that information could be useful, especially if we still have a ranger of sorts and Turin is a hunter. Three known innocents will give us a 1/3 chance of lynching a wolf today.
In addition, I'd just like to say that something in Lhuna's words feels deceptive; but I will have to think about it further."

[the guy who be short]

"If it's arguments you want, old man," Guy said to Nogrod, "you shall certainly get them!

First and foremost, I find the idea that the wolves could intentionally forgo a kill absurd. You say the wolves may have done this to make us lynch a quiet person, and I find this ridiculous. If they really want to get a quiet person, they can kill them in the night! Your theory is convoluted and... weird, frankly.

Indeed, you seem to spew too many distracting theories - this idea of Turin being a seer, for example. To me, and many others it seems, they are not only distracting, but don't seem to make much sense.

I acknowledge the misunderstanding about your Day 1 vote. You say you have explained it once already, and this is true. To me, however, it still seems like a wolvish plan to make you seem innocent.

Again, you repeat the accusation that I was trying to create a bandwagon against you with my accusations of you, ignoring the fact that I changed my mind about you before anybody else (other than Rikae, who supported my suspicion of you!) had joined us, thus proving that it was not my intent to create a bandwagon.

You accuse me for changing my mind about you. There was nothing suspicious about this: I presented my points which I believed pointed to your guilt. You answered them satisfactorily. I therefore changed my view about you. You youself say "It is a mark of an innocent villager thinking for the common good to be able to change one's mind when one realises that one is possibly doing a mistake" - but apparently, not in my case, eh?

I believed the quiet to be wolvish "before and after" the period of accusing you (before toDay that is), but not during the time when I suspected you, because you tried to put pressure on the quiets. This is perfectly reasonable. I don't see why this would point to my guilt in any way.

You claim that I said that you suggested not to lynch anybody. Anybody going over what I have said will find that I made no such claim, which means that once more you are seeking to misrepresent me. And, it seems, you are trying to distract the whole village again by restarting the whole lynching-somebody-doomed-to-die-anyway debate when it has no relevance. I will say it once more: your view is wrong. It is a complete waste to lynch somebody who would die anyway, which, I said, is essentially the same as lynching nobody! The statistics prove that I am right."

Guy took a deep breath, realising he had been getting ever so slightly heated.

"I feel that last night, you and your ally - who may or may not be quiet - could not kill due to the disturbance you experienced in the spiritual world. Your outlandish claim that the wolves chose to forgo a kill is simply an attempt to confuse us.

You are, dear Nogrod, oh so wolvish, slippery, contradictory and distracting. And so, without further ado,

++NOGROD

And now I shall concentrate on trying to find our second wolf.

Oh, and Brinn, I fear you misunderstood what Nogrod accused me of. He claimed my suspicion of him was an attempt to start a bandwagon against him, Nogrod, and nothing to do with my vote for xyzzy. I have, however, shown this to be a product of his own wolvish mind."

Guy settled back into his seat and took a sip from his flask, satisfied.

[Rikae]

"Guy, you say
"It is a complete waste to lynch somebody who would die anyway, which, I said, is essentially the same as lynching nobody! The statistics prove that I am right."

While I didn't want to reopen the whole statistics discussion,(everyone feel free to ignore this, it's just theory and, I admit, now irrelevant) I have to point out that the difference between two deaths in one day and in two subsequent days IS a significant one. Every day gives us more posts from all of the suspects to analyse and aid our decision. If the posts didn't matter, and every lynch was a shot into the dark relying solely on statistics, talking would be pointless. Getting an extra day means we have more information and, presumably, can vote more intelligently.

I would actually be interested in finding out what the coorelation between the number of times a person speaks and the chance that that person's role will be sucessfully discerned by others; if there is no impact, than we're indeed wasting our time.

But this is a pointless discussion anyway, so I suppose I'll drop it."

[Nogrod]

Guy's heated words woke Nogrod up. He rose up and looked at the guy guestioningly as now he was totally baffled about the young man. After rubbing his beard for a moment he walked to the guy and sat down beside him - looking him straight into the eyes.

"This satisfied smile on your face bothers me a lot, I must say. Otherwise I'm just baffled."

Guy looked at the old man waiting for some further clearance.

"We seem to disagree on some basic points as to what is good for us or what the wolves might think is advantageous to them. There's nothing bad in that and even if I still believe I have the more reasonable approach to this I admit that people may think differently and that's natural. Even though I'd like to say that some ideas are better than the others..."

Nogrod made a pause and pulled his pipe yet again. But while he started filling it he continued as well.

"I think we two have wasted too much time on this stuff already and that's bad for us all as little constructive sharing seems to be going on after everyone else either sleeps or comments our discussion. If we have time at one point or another I will answer all of your questions - by basically repeating what I have already said - but as it feels I've used most of my time to it already I think I can use my hours in a better way right now as I feel fresh and energetic.

But there is one thing I would like to voice out before I start thinking the larger picture in earnest and that is your seeming retaliatoriness and "heatedness" as you yourself described it... That is something that is always so hard to judge.

I mean I know it myself that when I'm innocent I tend to get much more agitated with someone making a case on me because I know it's false and thence this leads me to suspect that the case-maker as an evil person. That's natural and speaks on your behalf my lad.

But you should also remember that some wolves are a bit touchy as well - and I kind of remember that one of your quite recent forefathers was pretty aggressive and arrogant - should I say - when my ancestor had catched him from wolvery... So this satisfaction of yours right here and now, and your confidence. These really make me think.

We innocents don't know about things but we need to think and rethink all the time. So we seldom can be sure or satisfied with our suspicions, not to say of our decisions. Something always nags in one's head: maybe this isn't right? maybe I'm mislead, maybe I think this the wrong way?

So I'm baffled with you as you can see. I'm tending to believe my theory of Androg is right and your half-innocent half-guilty situation makes you act like you do but I'm not forgetting you."

Nogrod rose up and nodded to the guy.

"I'll go out and think now for something else. We need to see our options clearer now. You may dislike me for trying to see all the possibilities..."

With that he glanced at Mac, but smiled in the end.

"But someone needs to think them. If our wolves or just the other one of them is now safely outside any consideration - which consideration seems to involve only Gil, Izzy, the guy and myself - we need to do something about it. And as no one else here seems to be able or willing to even try to help us with bringing in new perspectives then I will try it. I'm old and my lifespan will be short anyhow."

Nogrod left the hall and wandered outside past the pool and settled himself to the crest lighting his pipe.

[Lhunardawen]

Lhuna approached Nogrod and tapped him gently on the shoulder.

"You seem to be quite in demand toDay," she said, when the old man looked around at her. "You asked me how I would have voted yesterDay had I been around nigh sundown. Simple: I would have voted whom I suspected, regardless of numbers. I build a case against someone I find suspicious after considering everyone, and when at the end of it I remain convinced that he is suspicious, I vote for him. Just like I've done the past couple of Days.

"What kind of vote would I not find suspicious? One that is backed up by previous words. Though on recalling yesterDay's events, I notice that at first you seemed to feel more uncertain of Izzy than xyzzy, and after the latter posted you expressed a greater suspicion of him. My mistake, then.

But you tell me that yesterDay I suspected you for not voting for someone who was about to be lynched. That's not true. I cared not that you did not vote for Shasta; what I was wondering about was that you changed your vote to tgwbs when Shasta's death was made certain. You spent that first Day convincing us to lynch the silents, and voted for xyzzy to show perhaps how serious you were, but when no one would listen, you changed your vote. True, you had expressed some doubt regarding tgwbs earlier that Day, but if you really were suspicious of him, I had kind of expected you to convince yourself, and us, that he was worth lynching, instead of going the xyzzy route. I might be being presumptuous in this, seeing that we've only been at this for a few Days, but then it's probably not so bad compared to how much you claim to know me."

She turned around and sought Rikae, and said, "I'm afraid I will not have the chance to hear what makes you feel that my words are deceptive, as a sleepiness that is out of this world, it seems, claims me again."

She bent low to the ground, and wrote with her finger:

++NOGROD

"There must be an end to all your deceit."

And she walked back to her bed of straw and lay down, and was fast asleep.

[Macalaure]

"The more I follow the argument between Nogrod and Guy, the more I cannot believe it's two innocents argueing here. Lynching one of them would be a shame, since they're the ones who contribute the most, but considering our numbers, I think we should be able to afford it. Also, though I can already foresee this point to be used against me: we need a proper dead body to analyse, one which leaves something that we can really analyse! And if the wolves won't supply us with one, we might have to do it ourselves. I'm very much against lynching a quiet one again today.

About Rikae, Lhuna and Brinn I feel relatively well, though I will reconsider this tomorrow. The same holds for Izzy, Gil and Mith.

I'm tempted to do analyses of Nogrod and Guy, but my forefathers laid a curse upon me never again to attempt such a thing, for the sake of their successors' sanity.

Nogrod makes a lot of theories, sometimes of questionable usefulness and sometimes of questionable quality, but always with unquestionable effort. One has to honestly acknowledge that. On many of Nogrod's positions I don't agree, while at the same time, I agree with almost all theoretical statements of Guy. This would clearly point towards a vote for Nogrod, but I've decided to not regard this and instead focus only on the way the two have been accusing one another and look who comes out as honest and who as manipulative.

I'll be back soon."

[Nogrod]

Nogrod had just gotten through with his remembrances when he felt Lhuna approach and address him.

"Sad to say but you're making a mistake here Lhuna - or then you're doing this in purpose which would be evil... I remember one case from my family's archives when all the wolves bandwaggoned my innocent ancestor in a row, in bright daylight they lynched my forefather as the others just stood by... and that was the end of that village then. It feels the same now I must admit and that makes me sad.

Also your obviously one-tracked suspicion of me should make me suspect you a lot and your timing with the guy should make me say that you're two wolves trying to secure a lynch of your liking.

But there are some things in what has been said on earlier Days that demand me to think of it further than my own feelings about you... We need to get wolves after all and I'm not so sure about you two anyhow. I do hold it possible you two are the wolves but a bit more probable is the quiets / non-present wolves scenario... whence you just are too quick to jump into bad conclusions and should learn more about the lore.

But the fact that you both set aside the obvious and easy solution that the wolves just fumbled last Night - and the one before - and were not up to their task kind of worries me in principle. Not the least as it is combined with your happiness to get rid of me... I'm not sure if either of you even mentioned the obvious way for us toDay while you can't claim you're not cognizant of it. I mean how else you explain the no-kills of the two Nights?

And to Mac and Rikae I must say this: You can't be serious when you think that in case the wolves left one kill unexecuted for strategic reasons it was me... just look at my status in this village right now - and yesterDay - and think how wise that would have been! Pure folly I say. But then again to you two it would have been a very good one indeed - or to one of you - as there seems to be no actual suspicion on you right now.

But I'll come back to this thing later as I now must eat.

So go ahead and lynch me if you so wish but I will tell you, you will have a hard Day toMorrow with zero lupines caught... I will promise to help you nonetheless toDay as much as I can. I hope you learn to appreciate it toMorrow if you can't open your eyes toDay."

With that Nogrod frowned and stood up to get his backpack. He felt sorry for himself but also for all the decent people around him. Now what's the problem, didn't I try enough?... how was it what Mother said: the world pays you back with unthankfulness...

WIth that old memory Nogrod smiled yet again. Petty people have petty thoughts... now my man don't be petty but eat up and then do what you can to help these people... You'll see whether it's enough or not and you can't do more than that.

[Mithalwen]

Mithalwen spoke having been roused by the accusations against Nogrod, and this filled her with foreboding.

"Companions, I beg you to rethink your votes for the only thing I feel confident of at this time is that Nogrod is not a wolf.

Is it not possible that who ever guarded the wolves victim two nights ago was contrary to custom able to repeat the feat. I must recall the discussions but I fear only the wolves will rejoice in Nogrod's death. "

[Nogrod]

I fear only the wolves will rejoice in Nogrod's death

"They will be the ones indeed..."

Nogrod uttered in a half-answer to Mith from between the bites of dry meat he was gnawing sitting on his blanket.

"But before this is over for toDay I wish to first remind you all of a few things as I know - and have seen already toDay - that some of you are keen to take your weapons up and make your statements early enough.

Remember. We have two wolves here. Together they may pile up my votes to four if both guy and Lhuna are innocent and that's hard to overcome even if you came back to your senses. So hold it for a while now.

What is this lunacy now that everyone forgets our basic situation? If I'm going to be lynched toDay - or killed during the Night - please be careful to check who keyed this concentration.

And I think the next voter for me - if there is one - should be looked at very closely toMorrow after you've finally learned my innocence for that person surely knows that in this lazy place three votes will secure the wolves their pleasure.

Indeed one of the main reasons for all this is this darn sleepiness here - and I would add, laziness... but it's hard to point that one thing especially to anyone in particular as it seems to pervade this whole cave."

Nogrod took another bite and made one more remark.

"On Night1 Beleg was able to outwit the wolves and on the next the wolves failed to even try. That seems to be quite clear. So what is our first and the most reasonable lynching project?

How can you forget this?

I wished myself to have other discussions toDay as it would be both boring and not contributing to our case if we just discussed whether we lynch Gil, Izzy or Mith."

With that he glanced at Mith apologetically.

"Sorry Mith, I approve of your words but in the name of our common survival I can't rule you out either just because you made a sensible speech...

And if someone wishes to maintain the second option as I myself might be ready as well - that the wolves intentionally gave a kill away, then look at those who were the most secure in the end of Day2 and how they have reacted to things toDay.

That's my short advice right now. I try to have something more detailed on in a while."

Nogrod took the last bit of the meat and fell back to think.

[Isabellkya]

Izzy stood up from where she had been sitting in deep thought. She could hear the voices of the others drift towards her, and had even seen the exchange between Lhuna and Nogrod. She stretched her arms above her head, and gazed around at the others.

'It seems I have arrived at a roadblock in my mind. At this particular time, Nogrod, Rikae, and Guy are foremost in my thoughts. I will have to go over my thoughts again, however it seems to me that both Rikae and Nogrod seem to be slightly ignoring each other. Whether this is because they are comrads in wolfishness, or because they find the other not suspicious; I have not decided upon yet.'

'The ongoing 'heated' discussion between Nogrod and Guy is a bit eyebrow raising. As I said earlier, Nogrod seems to have quite the number of tangents, and it is all well and good; however it is only successful in tying to drive us off course. Guy's heatedness in these discussions, is a bit disarming. One can understand frustration, but when it shows up almost every time; it makes one think that the two of them are cohorts and staging this little production for our benefit.'

'So I have three possible wolves in my foremost thoughts, however we only have two; correct? So I think that Nogrod is definately a wolf, and we must rid him of our group.'

++Nogrod

Izzy walked over to her bed and laid down for a nap.

[Nogrod]

Nogrod frowned...

"What did I say?

Well you can thank these people toMorrow if the worst happens."

[Mithalwen]

"I fear then it is 'Goodnight Tinuviel' if noone changes their mind..." Gah

[Rikae]

"I'm sorry, Mithalwen, but I don't really understand what you mean by that statement. How does a ranger's inability to protect the same person twice in a row prove that Nogrod is not a wolf?
Besides, if I read the narration correctly, a different person had the bow on night 2; in which case, the same person could possibly have been twice protected (if the wolves even went after the same victim twice, which isn't really a given, either).

I'm not so sure about Nogrod's suspiciousness, though, either. Yes, he's involved in a heated debate ; yes, he's jumping all over the place with crackpot theories ; but, after all, isn't that the Nogrod we know?

I am actually quite concerned about Lhuna; who seems to be using her words in a calaculated and manipulative manner to bring about a pre-determined result; and Mithalwen, who has had long enough to catch up but continues to speak in a safe fashion - humorous, non-controversial, and brief; her style seems calculated to generate vague positive feelings toward her and lull others into unthinking trust.

I don't know why Macalaure has set up this choice between Nogrod and Guy; it hardly seems obvious to me that they are the only reasonable choices; nor that one of the two must be a wolf.

The day is drawing to a close, but I have to admit, I am far from reaching a decision."

EDIT: X'd with Izzy, Noggie & Mith.

[Nogrod]

Nogord raised his face to look at Mith.

"Oh don't you worry about that. Nienor is safe if I die. But I think that's the only good news there will be."

Then he tried to make a brave face.

"And anyhow there are still you Mith, Mac, Rikae, Brinn and myself to vote. That makes five. I'm just concerned that if Gil is a wolf and appears from somewhere... Anyhow we should not spread our votes or give them too hastily but discuss them first.

So let's be optimistic about that?"

[Brinniel]

"Guy, you said that I misunderstood Nogrod's accusation, but I was really wasn't trying to relate and respond to it. I commented about your vote because it was more like thinking out loud.

"To me, Lhuna seems sincere with her words, and I find it more likely she is innocent. If she actually does turn out to be a wolf, then a cunning wolf she is indeed.

"As for Nogrod...

"Now threatened, Nogrod is attempting to prove everyone of his claimed innocence, even giving us strategies on how to find the wolves toMorrow. His words are convincing I admit, but I refuse to fall for it. It seems more like a wolf who is making one last desperate attempt to throw us. Of course, if he does turn out innocent we will all have regrets (except for the wolves, of course). But lynching someone who is supicious and noisy like Nogrod will be more useful than voting for someone silent like Gil-Galad, who we have no clue about. Because wolf or not, we will finally have something to analyse. There is always a risk in lynching someone, and I am quite willing to take this one."

EDIT: X-ed with Rikae and Nogrod

[the guy who be short]

Guy looked around, glad that most of the village had finally woken up. "I'm satisfied," he said to Nogrod, "because I'm about 90% certain I've identified a wolf in you, and more or less everything you say strengthens this belief. However, there is still one other wolf to find, and I've been putting my mind thereto.

If I'm correct in my presumption of why there was no wolf kill last Night (i.e. one quiet wolf not saying anything, and Nogrod being unable to convey the decision due to spiritual difficulties), then the other wolf must be quiet.

Unfortunately, the "quiet list" is quite extensive, including Izzy, Gil and Mith. Of these three, I do not think a wolf-Mith would strongly defend Nogrod at such a time, so she seems innocent but misguided. I have felt Izzy to be innocent for a while, so her vote at this time seems to me to point to her innocence. However, she could have decided to vote for him after his urge to look carefully at the third voter for him, sacrificing him to appear innocent. What I find most likely, though, is the absent Gil being Noggy's ally.

Of the others, Mac has seemed innocent for a long time. I do not think wolf-Lhuna would vote for Noggy at such a crucial time. Rikae and Brinn I am both unsure of; parts of their behaviour make me feel they are guilty, and other parts make me feel they are not.

In conclusion, if Noggy is a wolf, I think the second wolf is most likely Gil, then Izzy. There is a small chance it may be Rikae or Brinn, but I find this unlikely. I think Mac, Lhuna and Mith are probably innocent."