Mandos Thread: DEAD ONLY! - WW LXXXVI

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think Angu's quote meant more like 'Good ol' boy, I know you're the seer and have dreamed of Boro, let's win this now!'

Hmm... that is a possibility. Although it's hard for me to see anyone looking at tp as the seer... and taking in al the other things Ang has done I must say I'm leaning towards the interpretation I made in my previous post.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Just check this: What else is this but trying to tell the phantom that "I'm now straight-talking to you"? No veils, no foolery: "come with us on this and we'll win..." See even the first bolded part. It is a straight call to the phantom and the phantom only. "I'm addressing you here..."

Or 'Hey seer, what are you trying to suggest?' If Ang, Boro & Nerwen are the wolves, your point about Angu trying to hint at the phantom about the wolves' identity is invalid.

I'm not sure I like Nog sowing doubt about the gifteds... Because yes I still trust Angu, and ed.

[Nogrod]

Explain this exchange to me in other terms than Ang being a wolf with Boro:

Originally Posted by Ang

it's kind of late, what can I say. I'm sure the wolves know what you're into

You seem to want to scrutinise Boro, probs to the point of death, without exactly saying as much. Could you do me a favour and put that plan on hold? I want to lynch somebody really helpful and pleasant instead.

Answered by tp:

Originally Posted by tp

No, no- I don't want to kill Boro! That's probably the worst tactical move we could possibly make.

Agreement reached?

[Nogrod]

I do like being right, but I hate being right when there's little you can do with it...

[Aganzir]

'Why did you wait till now and are speaking in code? As if the wolves wouldn't realise what you're doing...'
I don't know about the second sentence though.
And phantom's response: 'Yeah Boro is the hunter and probably hunting me, stay clear of him!'

[Mithalwen]

I am very touched that Milord Anguirel is making my social life his top priority... such a thoughtful chap.... And I trust him . The timing explains why he didn't protect Fea.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

'Why did you wait till now and are speaking in code? As if the wolves wouldn't realise what you're doing...'
I don't know about the second sentence though.
And phantom's response: 'Yeah Boro is the hunter and probably hunting me, stay clear of him!'

Where is that and what does it relate to? I tried to refresh the page but couldn't find that...

[Nogrod]

Mith: read #283 and tell me how that is written by an innocent Ang...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Where is that and what does it relate to? I tried to refresh the page but couldn't find that...

Sorry, that was just me paraphrasing Angu & phantom's exchange that you quoted. I should probably go to sleep.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nog

If someone held a revolver on my forehead and demanded for a take on the wolves I'd probably say Ang, Boro and Nerwen... (or Elra swopping places with Nerwen as Ang did protect Elron quite boldly earlier).

The thing is, I've spent literally the entire game trusting Ang and Boro. And if I'm that intensely wrong, it'll be the first time I've misread either of them that problematically. I mean, I've never been wrong about either of them. So I'm inclined to keep trusting them. It's not like it's to my detriment to be mistaken... I'm already dead.

[Aganzir]

Boro - phantom
Glirdan - Boro
Green - sally

Left: Angu, Nerwen, phantom, ed, sally

If both Boro, Glirdan and Greenie are innocent, the wolves have almost certainly won. They and the cobbler(s) can just jump on one of the bandwagons. Maybe orchestrate a double-lynch or something.

[Aganzir]

I must say I'm not overly fond of Angu asking ed who she's going to hunt... Lie, girl! Just to be on the safe side!

[Nogrod]

*Enter a reasonable villager who rallies the other to vote for Boro!*

Just a daydream I'm afraid.


Okay, looking back it could as well be Boro, Ang and Sally (thus the suggestion of getting rid of Greenie and defending Sally mildly).

Elron might be the real hunter then, just to inexperienced to be drawn in with the example of a senior? Exactly the thing the wolves wished to know.

Okay. Let's see.

Boro -> tp
Glirdy -> Boro
Greenie -> Sally

So those who have till votes are:

Ang (I say a wolf)
phantom (cobbler clearly in agreement with Ang)

These two can give two votes to anyone they see fit and will probably vote in concerto, esecially if needed.

That leaves us

Elron - a game changer? Sadly no I think.
Sally - could se something but hardly the one to go against the overall mood (and could be the third wolf anyway - thus voting with Ang & tp?).

Which leaves Nerwen to fight for us, unless she is the last wolf (Ang suggesting tp lynching her would talk for her innocense though).


So the chance of there being a real contest toDay with the voting - and thus us having a chance to play a role there is pretty thin. It would require both Nerwen being a goodie and having time and energy and eye to this and launching a major attack there - compelling enough for the other innocents to follow.

Wait, it might be there is only Elron as an innocent with a vote left besides Nerwen. If they both voted for Boro he would gather 3 votes.

Hey, that would mean that if Boro is a wolf (1 vote), Sally is a wolf (1 vote) and as tp is the cobbler (1 vote) now friends with Ang, they'd need to pick someone else!

And what Ang said would support that! He was looking for new suspects like Nerwen or Greenie as they'd hate to lose one of those already having votes?

Together Ang, Sally & tp could give 3 votes to someone thus tying it up with Boro/Sally, if Nerwen and Elron both voted for one of them. Great! Our extravote could make a difference there!

Well, now how likely is that?

Originally Posted by Fea

The thing is, I've spent literally the entire game trusting Ang and Boro. And if I'm that intensely wrong, it'll be the first time I've misread either of them that problematically. I mean, I've never been wrong about either of them. So I'm inclined to keep trusting them.

Now you both Fea and Mith can't be cobblers... there's only one unknown cobbler left.

[Aganzir]

Nah. I think it's more likely Angu is telling the truth. My wolves are Nerwen and Greenie (who have kept a nice distance to each other, just look at their posts they're so conveniently 'hullo I'm a wolf and this is my fellow, I'm not really suspecting her but I want to take a look at her some day, whoops I'm so busy it will have to wait, well never mind!'), and probably Boro.

I think phantom is a cobbler who has pegged Boro as a wolf and is now trying to make the innocents believe he's the seer.

But if both he and Nog are cobblers, where's the real seer?

[Aganzir]

Whoops well now there's stuff going on.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mith: read #283 and tell me how that is written by an innocent Ang...

Well it isn't . It is written by an innocent Aganzir.

[Nogrod]

IF ANG IS NOT A WOLF I WILL EAT A HAT IN A LIVESTREAM PERFORMACE IN THE INTERNET!

That is so bad!

And looking at how Elron goes we might forget her helping us as she is just stargazing there...

*headdesk*

That's it then.


The ranger is our only hope fr one more Day - unless she gets lynched toDay.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Well it isn't . It is written by an innocent Aganzir.

I think he was talking about his own post in this thread.

This is hilarious (or would be if so much didn't depend on it). Phantom's reveal doesn't look any more innocent than Nog's...

Nerwen? Sally? Anyone? Where's the real seer?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Nerwen? Sally? Anyone? Where's the real seer?

Here.

And has been all the time.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think he was talking about his own post in this thread.

This is hilarious (or would be if so much didn't depend on it). Phantom's reveal doesn't look any more innocent than Nog's...

Nerwen? Sally? Anyone? Where's the real seer?

The phantom.... I remember him playing like this another time as an innocent. And I still trust Ang because I can't see any of the others saving me,

[Mithalwen]

Sally has to be a wolf doesn't she? She has contributed nothing that I can remember.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Here.

And has been all the time.

I just realised the smiley looks like the Muskrat from the Moomin books.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

The phantom.... I remember him playing like this another time as an innocent. And I still trust Ang because I can't see any of the others saving me,

Me too - he was the hunter and pretended to be the cobbler so that even us wolves believed him. He was lynched towards the end of the game and he took one of us with him. That time it was more like 'You know I'd save you, [insert wolf about to be lynched]!' while in this game he's been making points that are simply wrong.

And given how innocent you looked, I'm not surprised you were attacked. I could have protected you, too.

[Nogrod]

I'm very sorry. I was badly mistaken.

I said the seer-revelator would explain he had not much to tell as those he had dreamt of had died already. I didn't realise he could also do this to end the gmae for certain:

Originally Posted by tp

I wish so badly that I could produce good news about remaining voters (Nerwen and Sally for instance), but instead I only know the innocence of those who have already voted (Glirdan & Boro) and thus I cannot hope to gain their voting assistance.

And see the pressure they're bringing on poor Elron... They should be ashamed of themselves, grown men!

Originally Posted by tp

The most difficult thing for me to discern currently is if Daughter is Cobbler or Wolf. I actually considered holding off on my reveal once she looked likely to go along with me (I had hopes that she was a Cobbler and could be persuaded to vote incorrectly), but the possibility of her being a Wolf I thought was too great to allow the chance of the Dead handing her a double vote.
...
I'm at quite a disadvantage in that regard, especially with Daughter still holding her vote there and the fact that I am suggesting it is likely that there is another Wolf among our remaining voters.

Originally Posted by Ang

It's your vote today that's of absolutely crucial importance

You didn't listen, now did you?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You didn't listen, now did you?

Hmm he was talking to ed, I think?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I should add that, though it means have to swallow some gall for the millionth time today, I currently buy phantom's account more readily than Elra's. You are right, sally, in that lynching Elra does seem to be the best compromise in a way. But is a compromise what we need?

And she will kill phantom who is just a cobbler, and it's 3-3 even before the night starts. No need to worry about the ranger or anything.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Sally has to be a wolf doesn't she? She has contributed nothing that I can remember.

Hey Hurray! That's it. But not for the reason you say, but for the reason why they need to pressure Elron right now - to get the fourth vote and thus make sure neither Nerwen or us get in their way with lynching an innocent.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And given how innocent you looked, I'm not surprised you were attacked. I could have protected you, too.

Apart from the not being alive and not being the ranger thing of course ... Do you still have the Snuffkin hat?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

And who saw this coming? I did, I did!

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And she will kill phantom who is just a cobbler, and it's 3-3 even before the night starts. No need to worry about the ranger or anything.

Loslote might be a wolf if Nogrod is lying.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Hmm he was talking to ed, I think?

That was not referring to Ang but as a general comment on you and Mith basically - and all the others through this game...

Originally Posted by Agan

And she will kill phantom who is just a cobbler, and it's 3-3 even before the night starts. No need to worry about the ranger or anything.

Something interesting developing in the game-thread I presume? *Goes to see*

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Apart from the not being alive and not being the ranger thing of course ... Do you still have the Snuffkin hat?

Oh yes I have it, it's my favourite winter hat.

I'm not sure I think sally is a wolf. Green and Nerwen still look worse to me. And I still don't know what to think of Nog, he seems to be changing his wolf suspects by the minute.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Loslote might be a wolf if Nogrod is lying.

True but we haven't seen her since... the night she died?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Loslote might be a wolf if Nogrod is lying.

Try something better... well, actually you can't. We lost the game already.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

True but we haven't seen her since... the night she died?

Didn't show a lot while she was alive...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And I still don't know what to think of Nog, he seems to be changing his wolf suspects by the minute.

The situation has changed by the minute, but I think it's the endgame now and am pretty happy with Ang - Boro - Sally -trio - as I have been for the last hour or something.

I have to check the game-thread though if there is something new now.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The situation has changed by the minute, but I think it's the endgame now and am pretty happy with Ang - Boro - Sally -trio - as I have been for the last hour or something.

No I think that's impossible. If Angu wasn't Glorfindel, there would have been a counter-reveal. Yes Nerwen isn't here yet, but he would have risked getting lynched if she was Glorfindel and had countered it. Not worth it for a wolf, given that he hadn't been suspected that much.

I still say Nerwen, Greenie & Boro.

[Mithalwen]

So Ang as the sane person around here this voting ...now fo rthe the double vote and before morning for the woluf -non woluf dead vote?

[Mithalwen]

Yep..managed ot get back and check... getting to the top of threads is taking a n age

[Aganzir]

Yeah now for the double vote.

I won't stay awake for another half an hour so I should probably vote soon... I don't like the fact I don't know what's going to happen. The wolves will probably hold their votes.

[Nogrod]

How do you explain that exchange between Ang and phantom other than Ang being a wolf. Or how he lured Elron to reveal in the first place?

And actually I haven't changed my wolves that much lately. I've had Ang and Boro there for a long time (Boro for a very long time indeed). It's merely a question of the third one I've been changing my mind.

Remember, I know the phantom is a cobbler - and he is doing that now quite beautifuly after the agreement Ang told him to take.


The only thing bothering me now is that I was much more confident half an hour ago. There is something enigmatic going on in there which is either just a very clever plot, wrong third wolf I'm looking at or something. Sadly it's so late I'm not sure how sharp I am right now to spot the exact details where the devil lives...