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Old 02-04-2011, 06:50 AM   #201
Mithalwen
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We have known roles - Legate was a cobbler (got something right) and Wilwa a common or garden innocent. Bad news for the village is that they lost 3 non wolves in a night.
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Old 02-04-2011, 06:53 AM   #202
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Sorry, but I'm now going to end this "I know you can't trust me on this issue, but maybe you could be so nice as to consider..." etc. stuff and will go straight into how this game is now. You can then think yourselves whether you consider it worthwhile or not. Up to you.


Residents of Mandos:

Mänwe - ordinary innocent (N3 dream)
Nogrod - the seer
Blind Guardian - innocent whose role has been taken away
Feanor of the Peredhil - ordo or cobbler
Aganzir - Beren (also N1 dream)
Shastanis Althreduin - Lúthien
Thinlómien - ordo or cobbler
Nessa Telrunya - ordinary innocent (N4 dream)
Loslote - ordinary innocent (N5 dream)
Mithalwen - unknown innocent

In the living thread are still:

Glirdan
A Little Green
elronds_daughter
Nerwen
satansaloser2005
the phantom
- a cobbler (N2 dream)
Boromir88
Anguirel


So 8 players.

3 wolves (until either Wilwa or Legate were wolves) and at least one cobbler (tp). Unless Mith is the ranger, there are four innocents including the ranger and the hunter.

Be that as it may, the most probable scenario seems to be there are 3 wolves + 1-2 cobblers (wilwa or Legate could have been cobblers but probably not wolves) vs. 3-4 goodies.

Looking at how easily the wolves have handled the lynches thus far there is no reason to believe they'd fare any worse toDay with the remarkably smaller village where they are even able to take some risks toDay to meet their ends.

In any case, they need only two non-wolves killed and they win, while the chances that the villagers manage to actively lynch one of them are slim indeed, in not just nonexistent.

So in practise the thing that could grant us some added time is the hunter getting killed and taking one wolf down with her/him.

Here: enter the cobblers who know their math.

My prediction: the phantom will try to get lynched toDay to give the wolves a non-hunter to the gallows to make it safe for the wolves (and he'd love to get in here to spend even the last Night among us here - basically to brag; I presume ). And why not, if there is another cobbler, s/he might try the same... (whom, if identified correctly by the ranger would lead to the odd situation where the ranger's best bet would be to protect a cobbler...)

A ranger-save could prolong the game with at least one Day as well.

Although the wolves might drive for a double-lynch as well toDay.


All in all, I'm not too optimistic about the general situation, but I am slightly optimistic that we can come up with decently believable chart of the roles down there among the living with the aid of which we could try to help the villagers with the lynch - if they can pull their act together that much as to get one wolf contending for the lynching for real. Without that there's no way we can help them now.


EDIT: X'd with Rikae & Mith - So Legate was a cobbler! Good news for a change.
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Old 02-04-2011, 07:40 AM   #203
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YesterDay's voting:

Ang -> Lottie
Green -> Sally
Nerwen -> Elron
Sally -> Lottie 2
Lottie -> Wilwa
Glirdan -> Ang
NONWOLFMith -> Lottie 3
COBBLERtp -> Elron 2
Elron -> Boro
++ Ang -> Lottie 4

I'm somehow uneasy with Fea there.It may be I'm paranoid as she basically did well to prevent the double-lynch. But something still bugs me.

The reason for it I can see though: with Fea's decision it is clear Elron, whom many of us suspected more or less, was saved. Also Fea's claim to do that to prevent a double-lynch 9 minutes before the DL when there were still 7 votes possibly coming looks a bit odd and casts a doubt on to her motives behind the move.

This is what she said 9 minutes before the DL when changing her vote from Nerwen (voted Elron) to Anguirel (voted Lottie):
Quote:
I don't want to allow for a double lynch, so I'm going to change my vote since I haven't trusted Lottie in quite some time.
The interesting thing here is that the dead votes thus far had been:

Fea - Nerwen --> ed
Lommy - Greenie --> sally
Agan - Nerwen --> ed
Nog - Angu --> Lottie

And Shasta hadn't voted. The probability that if he turned around to vote was high he'd gone with Agan in voting Nerwen as well (thus giving our extravote against Elron). With changing her vote Fea made it sure our extravote would not go against Elron.

That scenario would then aptly explain her clear joy after the results came and her change of mind had actually prevented a double lynch (quite improbable at the time she changed her mind?):
Quote:
Aaaaand double lynch successfully avoided. You're welcome.
If we'd have time, I'd sure wish to check her for possible cobblery. But it may be we can't afford it at this point of the game. And if she is the other remaining cobbler, then we have a problem here trying to efectively help the village if she can throw in a last minute vote while most of the active dead are from Europe and thus harldy able to stay up to the DL to try and counter that...

I'm sorry Fea if you're not a cobbler, but I hope you see why I have come to these suspicions.


On another note. I am a bit disappointed with how the lynching of Lottie in fact went. While reading it yesterday in a hurry it felt like there were things going on and that we might be able to read something from it - but it does look more confusing now...

Well, we still have time to read and think.
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Old 02-04-2011, 08:18 AM   #204
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Things are starting to happen?

What do you think of Ang's performance there?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ang on #673
I lean towards advising Glorfindel to come out, really. We have so little other information.
Now as is, the identity of the ranger would be the second last piece the wolves are missing from their puzzle - and it woud grant them a secure & non-hunter Night kill giving them the victory if they just lynch someone right toDay.

But then again, if Mith is not the ranger (which I was kind of hoping for for a few reasons we might discuss later) as she hasn't claimed to be it, then a ranger-Ang could have been the one protecting her, and thus his suggestion might be a trap for the wolves or cobblers to come forwards promoting it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ang #671
I distrust the phantom with extreme prejudice. I don't like his immediate if typical attempt to claim the Day's direction and steer it towards Elron, a vulnerable, easy-to-lynch candidate whom he knows many people (me for instance) vaguely suspect. As in WW I itself, our "two luminaries", phantom and Boro, the great statistical plotters, are at war. It is very unlikely that both are guilty. At the moment I would also say that neither are wolves, and that phantom is, after all, a Cobbler.

Which means we cannot dismiss that aboriginal question. Was Nogrod telling the truth?
Once again going both ways... Is this Ang the wolf signalling to tp that they are now confident about him (note the added comment on me being right initially when telling him to be the cobbler), and telling him to stay away from Elron? Maybe even telling him to stay away from Boro as well? He even goes to underline his pointing to tp in the end of the same post:
Quote:
damnation, I seem genuinely only to suspect the phantom now. Consumed in obsession. And I don't even think he's a wolf, just a Cobbler.
Or is he just making the innocent's (ranger's?) fair POV that it might be I was right and that tp is the cobbler, and that he fairly thinks Elron is a "vaguely suspected easy lynch". (Then again it would be the wolfy-way of trying to save your mate.)

Also, after hearing about Legate having been a cobbler he ponders whether that puts an end to my believability.But still feel the need to post once more to state this:
Quote:
there's probably still a cobbler around, even if I'm pretty sure his name is phantom
And that in a post where he also speculates whether we still have two or three wolves around, claiming not to understand the maths and thus being not too aware of the direness of the situation... (which a wlf would know exactly, that this is more or less the decisive Day - and getting the name of the ranger would be crucial...)

I can see Ang both ways but right now I'm more tempted to lean towards him being a crafty wolf. It's not a wide margin though and partly rests on my quite unfounded assumption that Elron could be a wolf, and that he's better in maths than that.

What do you think?
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Old 02-04-2011, 08:34 AM   #205
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Okay, they are at it now!?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
if Glorfy's alive, looking at the desperate situation and need for some type of tangible roles...now is as good of a time as any for Glorfy to step out.


What I said...


*Yells to the game-thread: "Don't listen to them Glorfindel!!!"*

Yes, we'd need her/him here, but only if we have a game to go on in the first place. And now it will only pay for the wolves to know her/his identity.

The ranger can protect her/himself to be sure, but as the wolves know s/he was protecting Mith the Night before the chances are good s/he protected her/himself last Night. So s/he woud be killable the coming Night...


Please hunter, make yourself the target and hit it right!
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Old 02-04-2011, 08:38 AM   #206
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Boro continues...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
The most manipulative and mis-leading player this entire duration has been the phantom. Lynch him, even if he may only turn up cobbler.
See the plan now?

Lynch the phantom (not the hunter), out the ranger and kill her/him at Night (not the hunter) as s/he will probably not be able to self-protect... = Wolf Victory!
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Old 02-04-2011, 08:51 AM   #207
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Sextuple posting? Shutting up for a while now...

Heh, I'm trying not to get too carried away with my theory - and I admit it might be wrong at least on some of the concerned - but if Ang, Boro and Elron are the wolves (and Fea the second cobbler), I'm claiming some bragging rights for this.

Anyway, when I come back I try to see this from some other angle not to get stuck with what now looks like a good theory, well decent... at least plausible. Anyway the first wholesome theory that is backed by some real "evidence".

If someone has time s/he could check whether what I said would make sense looking at the votings and the possible leering behaviour around them / saving Elron.
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Old 02-04-2011, 08:53 AM   #208
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Okay. I'm going to rock some suspension of disbelief (even though I'm not a cobbler).

Nog: what do YOU think we (the Dead) should be doing right now, and what do YOU think they (the Living) should do toDay?
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Old 02-04-2011, 09:10 AM   #209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil View Post
Nog: what do YOU think we (the Dead) should be doing right now, and what do YOU think they (the Living) should do toDay?
Well there is a simple answer to both of your questions. The problem is to be succesful with them.

We the dead should try and come up with the most accurate view of the situation there among the living as possible aka. who are the wolves and how they try to play it out as they need only two innocents dead?

The living should pull their act together and get at least one wolf on top of the lynching list (first or second most votes but not more than one vote's difference if second) - then we could try to help near the DL by giving the extravote to lynch the suspected baddie.

That should be the top priority - and the only thing that would immediately affect the game giving us more time. Otherwise we need to just pray for a hunter-kill. Sadly neither is totally under our own control: if the goodies don't give us a probable wolf for us to vote with a consequence (one added vote being enough), then no can do; if the wolves don't kill the hunter / s/he is not lynched, then no can do.


Heh, I just saw Nerwen's post... one more candidate for cobblery...


EDIT: just saw Nerwen posting a second post which looks quite reasonable... *sigh*
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Old 02-04-2011, 09:32 AM   #210
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I doubt the ranger would have protected themself last night assuming I was the previously protected one. HAving failed once the wolves would have wanted a certain kill especially since their target was widely spoken of as innocent. I have only once been lynched as an innocent and my voting decisions tend to be better at endgame when I have a cleared picture. Glorfy would have been certain enough I were doomed and would't have wasted a self protect.
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Old 02-04-2011, 10:41 AM   #211
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mithalwen View Post
Glorfy would have been certain enough I were doomed and would't have wasted a self protect.
Good point, that's true indeed. I didn't think about that, but it does not actually change the fact that the wolves wish to have the ranger's identity.

First of all, they might try to suggest sending the ranger to Mandos to gather knowledge via a lynch - with the false pretense that they have already bagged one wolf and that they have time for it (which they don't - even if they had bagged one wolf already, which they haven't either - compare to the speculation about it being reasonable to think they have done it already *Nerwen*), thus leaving the village unprotected for two Nights...

Or depending on the general mood, if it goes against lynching the ranger (why they haven't openly suggested it yet), the identity of the ranger known would help them determine whom s/he might protect if not her/himself... critical things if the ranger is still alive and they need a "clean shot" the next Night to win immediately.


But all this raises some doubts in me for my initial theory anyway.

So what do you think, how probable it is the innocent villagers really think they have gotten one wolf already? If they were confident about that, it would be more understandable they speculated about the ranger themselves s well (so not everyone calling for the ranger to come out would be bad per se, but only unthoughtful... although even that leaves me puzzled as to why don't they see how on the edge they are, were it that way.

Let me speculate. Looking at it that way, an innocent confident on one wolf already bagged would have it 2-6. Looking at how many have died (add the popular meme I am a cobbler & the case Legate), they'd probably think there is one cobbler left there.

So 2-1-5?

Losing two innocents before toMorrow (lynch & Nightkill) would mean toMorrow numbers would be like 2-1-3 (end of game most probably) or 2-4 (chances to play). But the ranger would be back only the Day after that... so they'd think they'd have to hang on without any knowledge for a full Day after that with either of the odds above.

As I said, quite puzzling. If an innocent thought of the odds for survival they'd need to go for a wolf and fast, even if they thought they were one wolf down. And there Boro says let's lynch the phantom even if he is just a cobbler! The "ranger method" is basically too slow now as s/he would be back there only two Days from now giving the wolves ample chances to kill people with no ranger around protecting them. And with Mith gone there is no other news the ranger might give them.

And the wolves know there are three of them so none of the above really puzzles them, but they may try to play on that.

But trying to separate possible innocent speculation from the malicious ones, what do you think - especially Mith and other "latest arrivals" - is there a feeling there that they have rid themselves of one wolf already? (I'm especially thinking about Ang here and whether I should reconsider what he said back there - needs to check it myself as well.)
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Old 02-04-2011, 10:47 AM   #212
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Welcome Mith!

Quote:
Originally Posted by phantom
We will find out about Nessa today. If she's guilty then Green, Nerwen, Phantom, or Ang will receive an extra vote.
Liar. Odd for wolf and even for non-wolf. So Green, Nerwen, phantom or Ang will receive the extra vote because Lommy wasn't a wolf - but I'm not fond of it at all... Let's see. There are eight people alive, and unless Nog or Lottie was a wolf it means all the wolves are still there. Thus if they lynch an innocent today and kill one tonight, it's 3-3 tomorrow. Which means we should probably strive to get a suspected wolf lynched instead of delivering messages... Even though it will muddy up things for the innocents. Hmm. Will have to think about it.

I am paranoid about everyone (except Shasta, Mith and Fea). Yes, even the phantom - although I'm sure he isn't an ordo. Either he's a cobbler, or he's the hunter or the ranger who wanted to stay alive as long as necessary and is now trying to get himself killed... I wouldn't put it past him to scheme like that even if it confused the rest of the village. But this time he looks much worse than when I last saw him do it.

I'm going to do some delving into the early days now.
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Old 02-04-2011, 10:51 AM   #213
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
If an innocent thought of the odds for survival they'd need to go for a wolf and fast, even if they thought they were one wolf down. And there Boro says let's lynch the phantom even if he is just a cobbler!
Exactly. I really dislike that. They've kept phantom alive long even though he's been looking mighty suspicious and only now that they really need to get a wolf are they starting to think about lynching him...
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Old 02-04-2011, 11:09 AM   #214
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If my hunch is correct then Glorfindel has the nous to go their own way.
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Old 02-04-2011, 11:11 AM   #215
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Right now it looks like Boro and Nerwen are playing for lynching the phantom. And lynching a cobbler would be very good for the wolves toDay - unless the ranger comes to the fore and the general mood could be made to lynch her/him fr unrealistic hopes for info.



On yet another thing (I promised to stop with this begging, but this is actually worth mentioning to you "doubting Thomases").

If I'm not the seer, what do you think the actual seer is doing right now?

S/he's been overtly quiet even if all reason says s/he would have some news to ease the innocent's tough situation. No responsible seer would go quiet toDay.

So a false reveal coming up? Possibly. But the wolves have it good now and probably even forget to think about that - which would actually mean they at least see I was the seer and have it comfortable with it. What kind of puzzles me is that the innocents seem to have forgotten the seer as well: people say I was not the seer but no one is talking about the "real" seer coming forwards. Where is s/he lurking when the village needs her/him?

Remember: Ang and Boro started speculating about the ranger coming forwards, not the seer. Shouldn't they have called the seer to give them some information? No, they said they need the ranger to come forwards for information!!!

Also, when the seer enters here he calls himself that - and you know no one else has said it but me. Why? Because I am the seer. That's also why no one comes forwards in the living thread.

And it would be a tough mission to pose as a seer there as the fake-one should have a believable history of five dreams with exact roles (if two of the 3-4 ordinary innocents have special roles that's a tough call for the faker as the innocents will imediately realise if it goes wrong).

If there is a false revelation, let me predict it will have a host of dead players with it with the apology of "sorry guys but they just died before I got to reveal them"...
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Old 02-04-2011, 11:17 AM   #216
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir View Post
I'm going to do some delving into the early days now.
Agan: Before you continue on making the points I have already made, please read first what I have said toDay. I think the situation is pretty much dire and we need not waste time parrotting each other. Like this:
Quote:
if they lynch an innocent today and kill one tonight, it's 3-3 tomorrow. Which means we should probably strive to get a suspected wolf lynched instead of delivering messages...
Bingo!

Okay. I need to be off for now though (hmph, just as some others finally join in... ), but I'll be back later.
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Old 02-04-2011, 11:18 AM   #217
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If Blind Guardian was the seer we lost some dreams. Replacement may either have had dreams that revealed nothing useful or information not appropriate to reveal. After all we have at least 2 good gifteds left and I would not expect the seer to "out" Glorfindel or the Hunter.
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:19 PM   #218
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Silmaril

Good job Anguirel. I am not very surprised, and I doubt we're going to see a counter reveal (although I kind of hope for one)...

I wonder if he'll join us tonight.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
I'm sorry Fea if you're not a cobbler, but I hope you see why I have come to these suspicions.
And how do you think she could have known Lottie was innocent and ed a wolf? As a cobbler, she couldn't. It sounds almost like Nog *gasp* knows ed is a wolf! (Remember we never checked him for wolvery ).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Noggins
as the wolves know s/he was protecting Mith the Night before the chances are good s/he protected her/himself last Night.
I don't quite see how the former leads to the latter.

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Originally Posted by Nog
Bingo!
Forgive me if I overlooked your posts even though they shine so nicely with shoe-polish, but I failed to see you say anything about dropping the message sending plan.
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:27 PM   #219
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Anguirel must be a wolf

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ang on #686
We probably still have a hunter, too. If s/he and Glorfindel reveal there will be a flurry of reaction and maybe some rival claimants, but I think in shifting the terms of debate this would actually be helpful. After all, a revealed hunter can look after themselves to an extent; wolves late in the game are very cautious about attacking them. I've known hunters be very useful out in the open...
The hunter is the only one who can fight back. If the hunter reveals the wolves know to stay away from her/him - and we lose.

Also looking at the way Boro started going after the phantom for real (a build up and then voting him) and tp starting this more agressive defence all seem to fit.


Agan: sorry about that "parroting" -remark, but I was just getting offline after almost five hours of work with the thread feeling I had finally gotten us forwards and you seemed to totally ignore what I had done (especially the things which I thought important eg. the actual suspicions) and only restated few of the general things I had stated already... but the way you stated them looked like you presented them as your own ideas thus letting me understand you hadn't read anything I had posted. Which frustrated me quite a lot. Sorry.

Mith said:
Quote:
If Blind Guardian was the seer
Do you have a reason to believe that? Like his/her (?) enthusiasm to help the village afterwards? Or something that would outweigh the things speaking on behalf of me being the seer? That would have to be quite an outstanding case indeed. Couldn't you Mith present it to us if you think so?


Okay, I know I start slowly to sound like myself on D2 *frowns* but the inactivity of most and the ignorance & open willingness to not even consider anything I say does make me feel less interested to put up an effort.


EDIT: X'd with Agan
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:30 PM   #220
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Oops! *Ang's revelation*

Well that... gives food for thought.
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:32 PM   #221
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Thumbs up

Haven't read your post yet but I totally cracked up at the title! :----D Like, how much more cobblerish can you get?
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:38 PM   #222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir View Post
Good job Anguirel. I am not very surprised, and I doubt we're going to see a counter reveal (although I kind of hope for one)...

I wonder if he'll join us tonight.
This is a complicated game, but to your question there probably is a quite a straightforward answer.


If Ang is the ranger he will join us as the wolves and cobbler(s) will talk it that way. And unless the hunter performs miracles (if given a chance) we have lost when the next Day dawns.

If Ang is a wolf he will not join us. But if the real ranger then counter reveals s/he either comes here or is then known to the wolves.

Not that complicated at all?


EDIT: X'd with Agan again
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:38 PM   #223
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but the way you stated them looked like you presented them as your own ideas thus letting me understand you hadn't read anything I had posted. Which frustrated me quite a lot. Sorry.
Nah no harm done - I was rather just writing down my thoughts and even though I didn't phrase it that clearly, what to do with the messages was the thing I was the most interested in (and still am).

Quote:
Okay, I know I start slowly to sound like myself on D2 *frowns* but the inactivity of most and the ignorance & open willingness to not even consider anything I say does make me feel less interested to put up an effort.
I'm sorry Nog but there's nothing you can do to make me trust you... I just read over day 2 and if I had had any doubts, I feel worse about you than ever. (But I'm so so sorry for you if you're actually the seer... )
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:42 PM   #224
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how much more cobblerish can you get?
Tell me how it helps the village that the wolves can avoid the hunter for sure?

Tell me also how it helps the village if the ranger leaves the village unprotected for two Nights in a row?


Crack only after that, if you can.
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:42 PM   #225
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If Ang is the ranger he will join us as the wolves and cobbler(s) will talk it that way. And unless the hunter performs miracles (if given a chance) we have lost when the next Day dawns.

If Ang is a wolf he will not join us. But if the real ranger then counter reveals s/he either comes here or is then known to the wolves.
I don't know. He might protect himself, or the wolves might not want to risk him doing that and will choose another kill.

Generally I don't think a wolf would fake-reveal as the role that can be proven, but it's so late now (and in the worst case they don't need to survive long to win) that they might even think about it. Still, it doesn't seem very likely. Angu was considered pretty innocent. (Yes I believe his claim.)
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:43 PM   #226
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Well I was right about Ang. was sure he was Glorfindel.

And it is only a theory about BG. But frankly I find almost anything easier to believe than Nogrod really being the seer.
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:46 PM   #227
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Tell me how it helps the village that the wolves can avoid the hunter for sure?

Tell me also how it helps the village if the ranger leaves the village unprotected for two Nights in a row?
You mean, the hunter will go after Angu instead of a suspected wolf, trusting the wolves to attack her? I wouldn't do that.

And yeah, dying is the price you often have to pay for being a known innocent, at least for a while (and thus narrowing down the village's chances of catching a wolf).

Anyhow I wasn't laughing at the content, it was just freaking hilarious that soon after Angu's ranger reveal my cobbler suspect no 1 titles his post "Anguirel is a wolf!"
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:46 PM   #228
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Originally Posted by Aganzir View Post
I just read over day 2 and if I had had any doubts, I feel worse about you than ever. (But I'm so so sorry for you if you're actually the seer... )
If you are looking at those early Days blindly, what do you think you will find? Even with the knowledge I have offered it might be hard to find anythnig crucial from there - although I do encourage anyone to try.

But there are things happening now - and this is most probably the last Day of the game - so I'm wondering why do you use an hour to read D1&2 when the plots are finally being played out now?
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:47 PM   #229
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And it is only a theory about BG. But frankly I find almost anything easier to believe than Nogrod really being the seer.
Exactly. There are two options: BG was the hunter, or the seer. It's 50-50.
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:49 PM   #230
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But there are things happening now - and this is most probably the last Day of the game - so I'm wondering why do you use an hour to read D1&2 when the plots are finally being played out now?
Because I consider it worth my while, silly. I need some coherency, some background.
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:56 PM   #231
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Where did you pull this from? I don't understand a word of it
Quote:
Originally Posted by Agan
You mean, the hunter will go after Angu instead of a suspected wolf, trusting the wolves to attack her? I wouldn't do that.
Okay. I try this one more time as we seem not be talking about the same thing.

Wolves win straight if two non-wolves are the next two dead (a doublelynch toDay or a lynch and a succesful Nightkill).

Which are the obstacles: the ranger (can save someone during the Night) and the hunter (can take one of them with if lucky/good).

What have Boro and Ang been doing toDay: trying to out the hunter and the seer.

I find Ang's "hunter should reveal" the most vicious one. What would follow if the hunter revealed? The wolves would know whom to avoid killing.

If the ranger reveals the wolves know if s/he is the correct one. Then they will talk the villagers to lynch the ranger and leave the village unprotected for two Nights. And there will be no Day when the ranger could go back as the game is over.

Clear enough now?
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Old 02-04-2011, 02:07 PM   #232
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Originally Posted by Aganzir View Post
I'm sorry Nog but there's nothing you can do to make me trust you...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mith
But frankly I find almost anything easier to believe than Nogrod really being the seer.
Well, if that is your attitude, don't ask toMorrow why we lost.

I'm not going to defend my position the whole Night another time, but I do beg you ask yourselves, what is the reason behind your conviction that no proof will turn it over or can even question it?

You should start by reading what I said toDay as you clearly haven't. (Especially Agan's comments and questions reveal she has not even bothered )


Btw. if I was a cobbler I would be gloating already...
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Old 02-04-2011, 02:15 PM   #233
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Where did you pull this from? I don't understand a word of it
Okay. I try this one more time as we seem not be talking about the same thing.
Ahh I thought you meant Angu's reveal would have helped the wolves to avoid the hunter which made very little sense. As I see it, your questions didn't have much to do with my post that you quoted.

Quote:
trying to out the hunter and the seer.
Hum?

Quote:
What would follow if the hunter revealed? The wolves would know whom to avoid killing. --- Then they will talk the villagers to lynch the ranger and leave the village unprotected for two Nights.
Going by the previous assumptions (all the wolves are alive and they lynch a non-wolf), their chance of hitting the hunter is 1/4. Not bad but not that good either - and the village could do with another known innocent. And they will never ever be able to talk the village into lynching Glorfy unless I've seriously underestimated everything.
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Old 02-04-2011, 02:18 PM   #234
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Well, if that is your attitude, don't ask toMorrow why we lost.
I won't, provided that you won't blame me for losing like you were prone to do on day 2...

Quote:
You should start by reading what I said toDay as you clearly haven't. (Especially Agan's comments and questions reveal she has not even bothered )
That's silly. In spite of what you think, I do read your posts, only I try not to get distracted by arguing with you.
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Old 02-04-2011, 02:45 PM   #235
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Here and catching up. Seems like reading the dead thread has given me enough headache, next I should read the living thread...

A few thoughts:
- good that we're one (more?) cobbler down and he won't even be able to mess stuff up here
- I admit my ignorance might be because I haven't read everything that's been said 100% carefully, but I can't see how my one vote was so disastrous yesterDay
- I doubt a cobbler/wolf would reveal as Glorfy at this point so I trust Ang unless he's said something totally silly (shall see soon)
- hi Mith hope you don't mind I say I hope you're a cobbler like I suspected
- we should definitely not vote to steer the lynch in a way that conveys false messages! the living trust us, and if we tell them that I was a wolf and they start looking for connections that don't exist toMorrow that might doom them for the whole game
- believe it or not, my to believe or not to believe debate has actually led me to almost belive Nog's claim. If he's not the seer, where is she?!

Now off to read the rants of the living.
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Old 02-04-2011, 02:48 PM   #236
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Nope I am not a cobbler. I genuinely thought you were a wolf.
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Old 02-04-2011, 02:49 PM   #237
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Going by the previous assumptions (all the wolves are alive and they lynch a non-wolf), their chance of hitting the hunter is 1/4. Not bad but not that good either - and the village could do with another known innocent. And they will never ever be able to talk the village into lynching Glorfy unless I've seriously underestimated everything.
I did some speculation over these issues earlier toDay - noticing how certain people started making the point that there has to be at least one wolf bagged (eg. they wouldn't be in that dire straits), they were talking about the ranger to come forwards for information (sic) etc. etc. If you'd have rread these you wouldn't be asking.

Also I said earlier toDay that the name of the ranger is important to them even if they don't manage to send her/him here (they'd need to sense the air whether to go for it or not - that's why they were testing the air there and preparing for the possibility) as the name could give them clues as to whom the ranger might protect (if not him/herself).

And looking at how easily they have steered the lynches thus far they'll have nothing to worry on that front - especially if tp plays along and sacrifices himself (not a hunter so safe lynch)... So the village will not gain anything with "known innocents" they can not trust anyway but the wolves will do everything with the names of the last gifteds.

And many other things...

But I have told these already. Really. I've said this all already.

Will entertain myself with tv now as talking without being heard is less fun than a mediocre scifi movie..
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Old 02-04-2011, 02:50 PM   #238
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Oh I am inclined to believe Elrond's daughter too. That vote last night. Contrary to all evidence there can't be so many cobblers and it makes sense she wouldn't be so bothered about staying alive at this point,
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Old 02-04-2011, 03:13 PM   #239
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Gah this game is really seriously headache-y. Anyway, I shall be here soon again but now I have to let Greenie post and go to sleep (sharing the computer tonight).

Seriously though, I have no idea who are the wolves and which gifted claims to believe but I guess it's not so much my problem given I'm here and they are (mostly) there.
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Old 02-04-2011, 03:32 PM   #240
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Mithalwen is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Mithalwen is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Mithalwen is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Mithalwen is lost in the dark paths of Moria.
I do trust Ang - admittedly if he were a wolf he would probably want me dead for historical reasons and wouldn't hesitate but I think his playing is consistent with being a ranger. He mention Draugluin early on which was the ranger role I played in the game he modded. And it is almost certain I was protected before I was killed and that made it more likely Ang was the ranger. I think I would be a higher priority for him than the others.
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Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace
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