Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[Estelyn Telcontar]

...that's what I keep telling myself.

Only one werewolf in the game now.

Only one vote for me toDay.

It's simple - just vote for the one!

Today I will be looking for the one person of whom I am most suspicious. Unless I get killed instead, either by lynching or by wolf, then I will concentrate on the next one.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Saucepan, the conclusions in your last post puzzle me. I can't follow your reasoning, which brings me to my own conclusion that you are trying to scatter any suspicion the rest of us would have about you.

...was Elempi chosen because he had one of the Wolves on his “probably innocent” list.

Please explain any logic that you have used to come to this conclusion.

Elempi’s choice as nightly kill, to my mind, most strongly implicates Kath and Esty.

Your suspicion of me has no logic that I can recognize.


Since your reasoning is not understandable to me, I must consider you a prime candidate who is trying to distribute suspicion elsewhere.

[Mithalwen]

Here ..no time ... and i thought LMP was the last wolf! Rethinking.. back later..

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by The Dark Lady

The village slept, and the unhappy spirits slept uneasily in their graves, and the gravedigger dreamt of his death, and in his dream a child screamed, and a red-haired man looked blindly to his past, and a hound howled; and they returned to him, and a woman wept; and he heard the faint tap dance of rolling dice.

This leapt out at me from the narration of our gravedigger’s death. Not sure if it means anything, but if there are clues to be found they may be here. Any red-haired men present?

I am afraid that I can’t read much into the votes for Eomer yesterday. Ang voted based upon his “honey-trap”, but could that have been a convenient pretext for him to attack his fellow Wolf? He has himself stated that his “declaration of ploy” was in itself a ploy to encourage votes for Eomer. Then again, the same might be said of the votes cast by the phantom and Mithalwen, both of whom indicated that they were relying upon Ang’s reasoning (although TP has given some further explanation for his vote today – ex post facto, as it were). By the time that Diamond voted, Eomer’s fate was pretty much sealed and, to the extent it was not (because there were a few votes that might have changed), she has the excuse that she voted to save herself (although I suppose that this might in itself be regarded as suspicious).

As for the other votes, I agree with the phantom that Kath’s stands out most. But it could go either way. Either she was sufficiently unconcerned about herself not to make her own position more secure (which would indicate innocence) or she did not want to give the impression that she was trying to save herself (which might suggest Wolfishness). It should be noted that Boro, an innocent, could have voted on Day 1 in a manner more likely to save himself, for Diamond for example, but did not.

Eek! When I read Roa’s damning analysis of Estelyn, I was all but ready to vote for her (Esty, that is), particularly as it ties in with much of my own thinking with regard to our milkmaid. Then I saw Roa’s analysis of me …

I particularly recall similar hatchet jobs being done on me twice in past games. One was produced by an innocent Diamond, the other by a guilty Kath. In both cases, I was innocent, I might add. The one time that I was a Wolf, I left very little material to enable such a hatchet job to be done. Take that as you will, but I must comment on some aspects of Roa’s analysis:

Originally Posted by Roa

The first thing that jumped out at me was his stance on phantom, which changed quite suddenly.

I explained yesterday the way my thinking on the phantom has gone. I still currently believe him innocent, albeit with a paranoid imp on my shoulder stubbornly telling me how much a Wolfish phantom would love it that I think him innocent and how foolish I will look if he does turn out to be our remaining Wolf …

Originally Posted by Roa

His reasons for voting LMP are heavily flawed at best and completely bogus at worst. He said himself that heavy statements of innocence would attract his attention, and Diamond did this more often than phantom did, to be sure.

My reasoning on “heavy statements of innocence” was that, if the Wolves were in competition rather than playing as a team, then they would be more concerned than normal to avoid being killed (thus losing) and so might defend themselves more vigorously than normal if in danger of being lynched. I would not regard an individual’s declaration of innocence prior to any suspicion being cast in their direction as particularly Wolfish. Quite the opposite, in fact, given the attention that it would be likely to attract (and indeed has, in Diamond’s case, attracted). Hence my concerns with regard to Elempi’s (and your) reasoning over Diamond.

Originally Posted by Roa

He also keeps pushing his "the wolves are at each other's throats" idea through all of it. Why? What purpose did it serve?

Again, I explained this yesterday. It is, in any event, an idea which is no longer relevant, save (possibly) in the analysis of Eomer’s vote and the votes cast yesterday for him.

Originally Posted by Esty

Saucepan, the conclusions in your last post puzzle me. I can't follow your reasoning, which brings me to my own conclusion that you are trying to scatter any suspicion the rest of us would have about you.

Please explain any logic that you have used to come to this conclusion.

Your suspicion of me has no logic that I can recognize.

My analysis was based upon Elempi’s list at #208, which you yourself highlighted as possibly being an important clue.

A Wolf might well choose to kill an innocent who had included that Wolf on his “probably innocent” list, since the death prompts the conclusion that he/she had no reason to kill that villager.

My view, however, is that the Wolf is more likely to have killed an innocent who regarded him/her as nether particularly guilty-looking nor particularly innocent-looking (for the reason I explained - it leaves less of a trail). Hence my concentration on those whom Elempi was unsure about. Since I am inclined to trust Ang and Nogrod for the time being, and already had more reason to be concerned about you and Kath, Elempi’s list points me towards the two of you.

The phantom was following similar reasoning in his post #263, save that, unlike me, he draws no conclusions from the analysis.

Originally Posted by Esty

Since your reasoning is not understandable to me, I must consider you a prime candidate who is trying to distribute suspicion elsewhere.

Look, I’m just trying to indicate where my current thoughts are leading me. It’s up to you whether you think my reasoning has any merit or not.

I must devote myself to my loyerly duties for a while. At present, however, my current “list” is:

Main suspect: Estelyn
Could go either way: Kath, Roa, Diamond
Tending to think innocent: The phantom, Nogrod, Mithalwen, Anguirel

I'll probably be pilloried for having such an extensive "innocent" list. I usually am. But I have little reason other than fear of the consequences to suspect any of those last four at the moment.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Of one thing we can be sure - a lone wolf will fight hard to stay alive toDay. That may not be loud, but I should think it will be discernable. Saucy, your strange suspicion of me makes me feel like you're fighting now. I can't think of any other reason for you to put me at the top of your list.

Others will have to judge which person they think is acting suspiciously today.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Let every eye negotiate for itself
And trust no agent; for beauty is a witch
Against whose charms faith melteth in blood.

--From Much Ado About Nothing (II, i, 178-180)

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Estelyn

I can't think of any other reason for you to put me at the top of your list.

Er - because those I suspected most yesterday were Elempi, Eomer, you and Roa. Two of those are now dead and you look more suspicious to me at the moment than Roa. As I said, her analysis of you echoed much of what I had been thinking. Despite her analysis of me, that makes me more comfortbale with her and less with you.

[Anguirel]

I had rather be a canker in a hedge than a rose in his grace; and it better fits my blood to be disdained of all than to fashion a carriage to rob love from any: in this, though I cannot be said to be a flattering honest man, it must not be denied but I am a plain-dealing villain. I am trusted with a muzzle and enfranchised with a clog; therefore I have decreed not to sing in my cage. If I had my mouth, I would bite; if I had my liberty, I would do my liking: in the meantime, let me be that I am, and seek not to alter me.

I'm getting rather tired of Much Ado, Dark Floozy. Slip us some History or Tragedy; save the comedy for after the death of your second wolf, I would, when this really will be Much Ado About Nothing...

Sauce said exactly the same about LMP's death as the phantom, down to the very categorisation of suspects, at greater length. This fairly superfluous reasoning does make me wonder.

However, I am not at all suspicious regarding his denunciation of LMP - it's perfectly in character for an innocent Sauce, earnestly trying to find a wolf, who just can't help suspecting, practically against his will, his own foe.

We have a great advantage in numbers as it stands, and even if we bag another wolf today that will not, I understand, free us from the Dark Deary's sport. So I'm tempted to relax and revert to a bit of grudge-fulfillment. I can't really be bothered to wolf-hunt when it leads not to victory, Silmarils and luthien, but to a Beckettian anti-climax.

I remain entirely unconvinced about Diamond's guilt and now also am pretty certain of Kath's innocence...

[Nogrod]

So the other wolf was a careful one...

But the other then? After reading toDay through I must say that there are a couple of names that have caught my attention.

Esty: First and foremost the way she has changed her style toDay after being suspected. She hasn't looked at all just a girl who want's to have fun lately. Also her clinging to tp's innocence in the beginning (as Roa pointed out), but more so her abandoning that posture toDay as there is no other wolf left.

Kath: Overcareful. Her vote yesterDay: just after I had voted for her and quite loudly proposed that a wolf would like to bandwaggon here more than in normal games just to save themselves (as the waggons are much harder to "read" here), she votes contrary to that suspicion with at least a seeming risk. I'm not sure she was in anything like grave danger yesterDay anyhow, so I might regard that choice quite safe. The possible Eomer-point (this is the weak one here).

Spm: I'm still a bit uneasy with his pregame-PM and lmp's death, if it can be seen as pointing anywhere, would point at Spm. I do not believe Spm is framed here to look guilty. But I might believe Spm to have done that himself to say he has been framed. Also his quite bold words of happiness at the fresh grave would make him look innocent and pure, not the least as lmp had moved him to the innocent list (which Spm now tries to downplay as a source!), but from Spm I might also believe that kind of trickery.

I'll try to look at these a bit more closely toDay. I think we might have the one wolf here.

But I will also try to have time to look at those who have somewhat flied under my radar this far. It seems to be a high time for me too to have opinions about you others...

Originally Posted by Ang

I can't really be bothered to wolf-hunt when it leads not to victory

? Playing only to win? How sad...

[Nogrod]

Darn anti-edit rules! With Esty there in my post above should be quotation marks around: as there is no "other wolf" left. Looks pretty confident without them. And I'm not.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Hey, staying alive is the prerequisite to having fun! I'm just trying to stick around for a bit...

[The Saucepan Man]

I really ought to be loyering, but when one is sitting at one’s desk with internet access, it is difficult to resist the temptation to keep returning.

Anguirel, stop fiddling while Rome burns. I don’t for one minute believe that this game will continue after the death of the final Wolf, so please let’s do our best to find said villain as soon as we can. We may have the advantage in numbers for now, but there is little sense in squandering it unnecessarily.

Originally Posted by Ang

Sauce said exactly the same about LMP's death as the phantom, down to the very categorisation of suspects, at greater length. This fairly superfluous reasoning does make me wonder.

I was conscious of that at the time I posted. I would, however, have been loathe to explain how the analysis had affected my thinking without going through it. And Esty would have had even more cause to jump on me for my apparent lack of logic …

Originally Posted by Ang

… and now also am pretty certain of Kath's innocence...

Care to explain why? Is this because her vote yesterday seems unmotivated by any desire to save herself? Or is there anything else that makes you so certain?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Esty: First and foremost the way she has changed her style toDay after being suspected. She hasn't looked at all just a girl who want's to have fun lately.

I noticed that too. An innocent under pressure might act the same way, I suppose, but the change is quite striking.

[Anguirel]

Sauce, have you not seen this, or do you simply disbelieve it?

Originally Posted by Dark Lady

You'll find out who wins when there's one person left and I let you know what his or her role is.

So I intend to fiddle all I like. Qualis artifix perebo!

[Anguirel]

Ahem, that should be qualis artifex perebo. Also, Sauce, your assumption about Kath's vote is right, and I also feel her general mood is out of "assassination" and into "unassuming and preoccupied". At the moment.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Sauce, have you not seen this, or do you simply disbelieve it?

The latter. I see no point in prolonging the game beyond the death of the second Wolf, and so firmly believe that we will be told as and when the last lupine kicks the proverbial bucket.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Ang

I notice Nogrod is no longer entirely saintly in the phantom's view. Care to tell, o phantom, why you were previously so sure that you warned Mith off him?

I'm not sure if he went down in my eyes- I just sort of reshuffled my list a bit and made it more difficult to break into my top top category. But like I said before, every time I reread I want to nudge everyone slightly one way or the other from where I had them before.

Later today I promise I'll try to go over at least two or three people's posts and firmly categorize them. Nogrod will be one of them, just for you.

Originally Posted by Ang

We have a great advantage in numbers as it stands, and even if we bag another wolf today that will not, I understand, free us from the Dark Deary's sport. So I'm tempted to relax and revert to a bit of grudge-fulfillment. I can't really be bothered to wolf-hunt when it leads not to victory, Silmarils and luthien, but to a Beckettian anti-climax.

I'm not sure what to think. If Fea will indeed allow this village to continue forever, then all I'm going to do is just lynch everyone in order of my suspicions until only myself and Ang remain.

And SPM- you've been continuing on today with your "wolf-guns-for-wolf" idea. It's really getting distracting to me. Yesterday you said this-

My dear Elempi, your theory is perfectly plausible. Except for one thing. If the phantom and I were both Wolves, and had identified each other as such, then there is no way that either one of us would wish to see the other outlast him, bragging rights or no bragging rights.

Don't assume things like that. Maybe you would be a disloyal go-it-alone WW, but I would not be. Not ever.

Under normal game format (WWs know each other, Seer, Ranger, etc) the only time I sacrifice a WW is if the Seer appears to have spotted him/her.

In this format, where you can't expect anyone to know anything and the WWs don't know each other, I would never at any point feel that I had to try and kill my fellow WW.

For a WW in this village the scenarios from best to worst are-
1) WW win, both WWs survive
2) WW win, only survives himself
3) WW win, only partner survives
4) Villager win, both WWs killed

Why would I want to take my #1 and #3 options out of play purposefully? That's silly.

If you truly honestly believe that WWs should gun for each other or that you would gun for your brother/sister WW if you were one, then you just have much less of a team attitude than me.

This is why I'm a little more suspicious of you today, SPM. Frankly, I can't grasp how anyone could ever think that a WW would kill its partner purposefully when that would decrease the chances of winning by 50%. That's stupid. I'm wondering if you in fact don't agree with me but you are trying your best to enforce this silly notion on us in order to mislead us.

Please explain yourself.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

The latter. I see no point in prolonging the game beyond the death of the second Wolf

Killjoy!

++SAUCEPAN PREACHER OF THE PRESBYTERIANS

[the phantom]

I'll be back in about seven hours- four hours before the deadline.

Have fun.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Killjoy!

Profligate!

Originally Posted by the phantom

Please explain yourself.

I have explained numerous times, seemingly to your distraction, my competitive Wolf theory, why I entertained it, how I thought that it would affect the Wolves' behaviour and why I thought that it was in one Wolf's best interests to strive to eliminate the other. If you still don't understand my approach, go and re-read my posts and all that the Dark Lady has said on the matter. It's of marginal relevance now that we are down to one Wolf, so I see little point in expounding on it (and thus distracting you) further.

[The Saucepan Man]

I just thought that I'd check how active each villager has been, so I looked to see how many times each of us has posted.

As at the time of posting (and including this post), the running total is as follows:

the phantom: 53
Estelyn Telcontar: 34
The Saucepan Man: 29
Anguirel: 27
Diamond18: 23
Mithalwen: 23
Roa_Aoife: 23
Littlemanpoet: 18
Feanor of the Peredhil: 16
Nogrod: 14
Eomer of the Rohirrim: 12
Kath: 11
Boromir88: 7
Mormegil: 7
Bêthberry: 3

I fully expected the phantom and myself to top the list, and was surprised to see myself only in third place. I was also surprised to see margin by which the phantom leads, although he has chipped in with a fair few one-liners from time to time.

But what really took me back was Esty being in second place. Does anyone else find this alarming, given how quiet she has come across, before today at least?

I am also slightly concerned by Kath's low ranking, although it does not surprise me. Come on Kath, it's Day 3 now. Time to start contributing more!

And who is this Bêthberry person?

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Saucy, I'm not the only player who has PS posted to correct mistakes, since editing is not allowed. And the three brief posts that amused you yesterDay were not exactly serious contributions. Post count is not a logical factor for calculating the chance of one of us being a werewolf.

Every post you write only increases my suspicion of you - your arguments are not logical.

[Roa_Aoife]

No time, I may not be back later.

++Esty

She's my most telling suspect right now, and I don't have the time or energy to continue with SPM at the moment.

[Mithalwen]

Right I am back - sorry for the short post but I have had to basically learn a new job in a week to cover for a colleague and today was her last day in so I was in early left late and had an uber short lunch break... while it is obviously less important in the scheme of things than compromising the well being of their children, people do get a bit grumpy if you mess up with their investments ( so unreasonable of them ... it is only money...) ...I do have a few ideas but I want to read through first .... .

[Estelyn Telcontar]

[Spock voice]Loyers are illogical![/Spock voice]

Careful, people - don't let Saucy mess with your heads! All I ask is that you read his posts and make your own judgement. Remember, he comes from a profession in which talking a lot without saying anything of substance is a primary ability!

[Bones voice]I'm a villager, not a loyer![/Bones voice]

I may not be able to contribute much more to this discussion, as my day is almost over, and family matters have top priority this evening. Most of you will have your prime posting time when I can't participate. I hope that you will come to the conclusion that his sudden case against me today is without basis.

Should I be lynched or killed toDay or toNight, look in his direction, for he is being very vociferous in accusing an innocent.

[Borg voice]Post count is irrelevant - you will all be assimilated.[/Borg voice]


...not by me, but very possibly by

++The Saucepan Man


Should anyone wonder why I have concentrated on SPM for toDay's argumentation, there are two reasons:

1 - His sudden attempt to brand me as guilty, with no real substance behind his reasoning. As I know myself to be innocent, I find that very suspicious.

2 - Hardly anyone else posted during the time I had available - there was really very little interaction with the rest of the villagers. I couldn't gain any new insights from posts by others.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Esty

Post count is not a logical factor for calculating the chance of one of us being a werewolf.

Crude analysis simply by reference to the number of posts most certainly is not. But, when taken into account with other factors, it is a relevant consideration. My concern about you is that you have seemed quiet while actually posting quite a lot.

Originally Posted by Esty

Every post you write only increases my suspicion of you - your arguments are not logical.

They are relevant to me. Whether they are relevant to anyone else is a matter for them. However, your increasing focus on me somehow makes me less suspicious of you. I am not so sure that a Wolf would be putting all her eggs in just one innocent target, so to speak.

One thing intrigues me. Much of the debate has focussed on Esty and I today. How did that happen? Possibly because Roa chose the two of us as the sole subjects today for her infamous and impressive analyses. And seemingly, she had made her mind up before carrying out those analyses (in my case at least).

I wonder if there may be more than one puppet-mistress plaguing this village ...

[The Saucepan Man]

Cross-posted with Esty, and her vote.

Originally Posted by Esty

All I ask is that you read his posts and make your own judgement.

That's all I ask, too.

A plea to all innocent villagers. I don't really mind getting lynched, but please don't let this become a two-horse race between Esty and me. I am not a Wolf and, while I have my suspicions of her, I am by no means certain that Esty is either. If she is not, then a two-horse race today will place the Wolf under no pressure and the votes will tell you nothing tomorrow.

I'll throw another candidate into the ring:

++Roa_Aoife

I am increasingly concerned over the way that she seemingly started of the day with the intention of bringing about this developing two-horse race.

[Anguirel]

Nice, Sauce. You are acting exactly as I, guilty or innocent, would act in your position, and bringing up important options.

But my vote for you will stand for now, though it was cast without any sincerity whatsoever. I want to watch more nail-biting in the stalls of the audience as I fiddle...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

One thing intrigues me. Much of the debate has focussed on Esty and I today. How did that happen? Possibly because Roa chose the two of us as the sole subjects today for her infamous and impressive analyses. And seemingly, she had made her mind up before carrying out those analyses (in my case at least).

I guess we all know that those who are being talked about are much more prone to be lynched than those we do not discuss. I also know Roa to be the master of that tactics: bringing people into the foreground - and if they seem to be dropping from there, lightly adjusting the situation and knocking them back to the center of the stage again. But she does that as an innocent too if she suspects someone.

But because the basic dynamics of these games seem to be that the involved ones get lynched and the silents, funnies or zero-contributors (or whatever - I'm speaking of a normal game here) do not, I always like to see to it that we reverse the trend - if there are no actual reasons to act otherwise. Now as we have killed our careful wolf here, I'm not sure whether the other one is as careful too, or whether my principles hold here in the first place.

But I still find the enemy that lurks in the shadows, under any radars that could give me an idea about it's hiding place to be the most creepy enemies. And in a situation of general doubt would like to vote that way.

I'll go back to the thread now.

[Mithalwen]

One of hte reasons that I was suspecting LMP before his death was that having caught a wolf on this side of the Atlantic who definitely falls in to the flamboyant category it might be more likely that our other wolf might be more likely to be a north american assasin type. However it depends how genuinely random the second wolf was ... and we can't be certain that Eomer whetehr Eomer was "chosen" or "random". As a mod, it is tempting to restart the random selection if the balance looks wrong. However with no gifteds and a high calibre group of players it is less likely to be tempted to tinker than if you draw very experienced gifted versus a team of wolves who are novice, notoriously absent, isolated by timezone, or vice versa

Since while there are some players who actively seem to prefer having a special role, others may be less avid but still highly competent. This means that I can't rule any of you out. However I feel more suspicious of Diamond, Esty, SpM and Kath than the rest.

I changed my vote for Nogrod, partly because Ang seemed so certain and even if he were a wolf disposing of his rival, it would advantage us all to get rid of a wolf.

And I did a quick last look at Noggins posts and while they were few they seemed normal. And Eomer had been almost as quiet....

Oh , sorry if I have missed anyone else mentioning this, but I do think it likely that Morm was Eomer's choice of victim given their history.

[Nogrod]

I took a quick skim over Estelyn and looked also Roa's bit on her. I think that from Roa's points the one calling attention to Esty's trust on tp is noteworthy whereas her point on Estelyn bandwaggoning is a bit more hazy... it looks to me more an evil eye cast on her than Estelyn being so suspicious on that particular thing.

The points Roa made about her frothiness, "Newbie defence", one-liners, pessimism about logic, lending the points of others... Well I can't see them as actual points to suspect her. The load of it makes one think, surely, but anyhow.

What Roa did was something I have called "A Devil's Advocate" -view over someone. Looking at someone's posting with the evil eye, trying to see any suspicious things you could find and gathering them to a summary. She has done that before, and I have done those - not to speak of the master of the art Spawn... I guess we all have done those as both innocents and villains. So making of them does not make one suspicious, but the reactions to them do count.

But then again, after that was posted I think a few important things happened. More important ones that were included in Roa's analysis - the reactions, as I said. And these are why I have started to suspect Estelyn somewhat.

After Roa's analysis tp included Estelyn in his "needs to be examined closely" -list with Di. Then Esty came in and changed her way of play considerably by starting to give different scenarios from where to look and even included tp in her lists (only mentioning him as among those who voted for Eomer, but that was possibly the first time she mentioned tp without saying she trusts him!).

And she continues by analysing Spm (girl's who just wanna have fun don't go analysing Spm of all possible people!). And just after a while she goes to say about tp:

always to be taken seriously as a possible threat.

Quite noteworthy might also be the fact that after she had been notified about her change of attitude she readjusted again, bringing lighter jokes in her posting - but still she seems to be wholeheartedly taking part by casting suspicion over already suspected targets, mainly Spm as he has been suspected the most after herself toDay.

Also this should be noted, although it's an old story, it should be quoted in its entirety here:

Well, I think I was chosen mainly because I so seldom participate in WW games, the trophy bird of paradise in Fea's glass menagerie, so to speak. That keeps this game from being a collection of the usual suspects, who have all played with or against each other many times. Perhaps she thought that would make me less calculable for the strategic experts...

Would an innocent say it this way?

She surely tops my suspicion list this far.

But I will be coming with some thoughts about others in a moment.

[Mithalwen]

Arrgh

I have been reading and rereading and getting nowhere and I must vote soon.

Since I can not be certain of the innocence of any of you - and in these circumstances that is a compliment - I must think of the lesser evil... the odds are not good of picking a wolf. So thoughts on you all:

Ang Not a priority, his posts are delightful and I would like more of them. If I were to be mean, I don't think he has survived as a wolf yet. To do so would mean a lot to him especially this game. He is not high up on my suspect list but if he would be a more flamboyant type . Eomer and Ang is one of the least probable combos I think.. but see my earler post for reasons why this line of thinking is far from fool proof.

Diamond We know she has a ruthlessly cunning mind even if she has not been a werewolf previously. First day posting was a bit over the top, as were the Diamond's rule stuff - marker of novice wolf. Closer to my offender profile to balance Eomer in being female, american ... wolfing style uncertain evidement... Bit too keen to get Boro lynched.... Boro didn't seem that suspicious to me and his instincts for the game are very astute ... I can't help thinking that wolves would be keener to get him out of the way than innocents.

Esty High post count was a factor in my gaining Fenris Wolf status. Lots of sound but ..... not substantial ...and frothy is another of "my words"
May be necessary to lynch her because she is too much of an unknown quantity. Nasty perhaps but pragmatic....

Kath The assassin wolf par excellance would be an excellent contrast to Eomer - she has a knack of never being quite the most suspicious person. She has been very quiet - maybe if she was wolfish she would have made her presence felt more.

Nogrod Could say much the same again .... been around more, posts seem true to form but experienced enough now to "play the part"

Phantom Still Loud but the idea of TP and Eomer both being wolves doesnt work for me yet ..

time.....time..time..

Roa Her analysis are plausible (and I would point out that I am not anti proper analysis - ie examining evidence and drawing conclusions, what annoys me is people just saying what others have said without making any points. That just clogs up the thread and makes someone look present without actually giving anything of themselves away. We all know wolves who have done this I am sure) .... but then she can do this as a wolf .... again I am not quite convinced of Eomer and Roa as a wolf pairing. Both are so high profile ..but that could be a bluff and there is no seer .....

Sauce Wouldn't actually kill him for being a lawyer .... but it has to be born in mind that lawyers are trained to present cases....... and he could certainly play the helpful villager as well as any...

[Mithalwen]

I have to decide and this is the choice I feel is most pragmatic. There are two deciding factors .... how suspicious they seem and how well I know their style of play (we have so little concrete evidence that subjectivity has to fill in...) so though I am not convinced absolutely it has to be

++Estelyn Telcontar

Besides I am lactose intolerant .... all that waving glasses of milk around is making me queasy.....

[Nogrod]

I just came back and here's the tally - we should start seeing these too.

Ang – Spm (Spm1)
Roa – Estelyn (Spm1, Estelyn1)
Estelyn – Spm (Spm2, Estelyn1)
Spm – Roa (Spm2, Estelyn1, Roa1)
Mith – Estelyn (Spm2, Estelyn2, Roa1)

It's all open with Di, Kath, tp and myself to vote.

[Anguirel]

And another summary from me -

Anguirel - Should have, and could have, contributed more today, I know. Am voting unhelpfully and feeling generally a bit inert and cavalier. Who knows, this rusting spring could see action yet.

Diamond18 - Was until recently the general favourite of the village for lynching, though now Esty, interestingly one of her main accusers, is drawing much of the attention she formerly attracted. To me she seems vintage Audrey, but I haven't much liked her quietness today, I admit, nor the quietness of others about her.

Estelyn Telcontar - I tend to feel she's attracting paranoia votes, unfortunately. The point Roa and Nogrod made about her use of language talking about her inclusion seems to me rather unlikely evidence. Her dogged pursuit of Diamond, in a typical misguided innocent manner, made her look fairly innocent to me before.

Kath - Comes across as pretty relaxed, but is getting silenter and silenter. Like the phantom though I really can't envisage Eomer pursuing his presumed fellow wolf, unless he thought his own fate was close at hand and wanted to improve her position.

Mithalwen - a wee bit Machiavellian on her last post re: Esty? Seems uncharacteristic. Is buying into the two-horse race. Hmmm. She could just really want to know the truth about the milkmaid.

Nogrod - Quality and not quantity seems his current maxim, but he is providing plenty of the former and I'm finding him useful as a veteran foe of Roa's. He's not going to be blinded by analysis. But like Sauce and LMP, he might oppose it just because.

Roa_Aoife - Were I seriously pursuing a wolf at the moment, I'd probably gun for Roa, having some basic agreement with Sauce and Nogrod that her building up of two candidates is pretty convenient.

the phantom - I'm not yet as certain about him as he appears about me. In fact, if the opportunity arises, I might well help lynch him, partly because his honed mind strips forth things that even non-wolfs like to be discreet about...and we have many feuds, of course. But at least he's quite funny.

The Saucepan Man - I haven't done anything out of "sheer devilry" for some time, but my act now regarding Sauce is a regress to the diabolical. Partly I'm interested to see if he comes out with anything when under pressure. It's called the "Torquemade Torture Procedure..."

And my vote stays on Sauce, with twenty minutes to change my mind...

[Anguirel]

--the Saucepan Man, ++roa_aoife

[Anguirel]

Argh. Sorry, dear target, in my haste I forgot to capitalise you...

[the phantom]

The voting thus far-

Ang for SPM (1)
Roa for Esty (1)
Esty for SPM (2)
SPM for Roa (1)
Mith for Esty (2)
Ang take back SPM (1)
Ang for Roa (2)

[Nogrod]

Our first Day suspicion getters by vote count were:
tp 3 votes - 1 takeback (D1), 0 votes (D2)
Di 3 votes (D1), 3 votes - 1 takeback (D2)
Spm 2 votes (D1), 0 votes (D2), 2 votes - 1 takeback (D3 –so far)

It’s nice to see the trend here.

tp was highly suspiced on Day1 but after that no one has “dared” to vote him – or has been affirmed by his innocence.

Di gained votes on Day1 and on Day2 but now it seems no one thinks her suspicious.

Spm has a nice curve: highly suspected on Day1, left in peace in Day2 and now in the frontline again.

Those who have gained suspicion after Day1 are:
Kath 0 votes (D1), 2 votes (D2)
Estelyn 0 votes (D1), 1 vote (D2), 2 votes (D3 – so far)
Roa 0 votes (D1), 0 votes (D2), 2 votes (D3 – so far)

Kath had a “peak” on Day 2 after remaining in the shadows on Day1. ToDay she’s again laying low.

Estelyn was clearly handled with care on Days 1&2 but seems to be gaining on suspicion as the game clearly starts to wind up.

Roa went under everyone (no one daring to challenge her?) both of the first Days but now seems to be gearing up with votes.

Those who have been mildly suspected and once voted for – albeit the votes have been taken aback:
Ang 1 vote - 1 takeback (D1), 0 votes (D2)
Nogrod 0 votes (D1), 1 vote - 1 takeback (D2)

Ang was ranted over on Day1, after that it's been very quiet...

Nogrod I can't comment here, I think.

No one has seriously suspected:
Mith 0 votes (D1), 0 votes (D2)

Mith seems too good to be true?


~~~~~~
I guess we all had something like the hunch of this but if we add to this the voters we might have more information...

Then it starts to look like this:

tp 3 votes - 1 takeback (D1) Ang, Spm, Kath; tb by Spm, 0 votes (D2)

Di 3 votes (D1) Roa, lmp, tp, 3 votes - 1 takeback (D2) lmp, esty, Roa; tb by lmp

Spm 2 votes (D1) Nogrod, Boro, 0 votes (D2), 2 votes - 1 takeback (D3 –so far) Ang, Esty; tb by Ang

Kath 0 votes (D1), 2 votes (D2) Eomer, Nogrod

Estelyn 0 votes (D1), 1 vote (D2) Kath, 2 votes (D3 – so far) Roa, Mith

Roa 0 votes (D1), 0 votes (D2), 2 votes (D3 – so far) Spm, Ang

Ang 1 vote - 1 takeback (D1) lmp, 0 votes (D2)

Nogrod 0 votes (D1), 1 vote - 1 takeback (D2) Mith

Mith 0 votes (D1), 0 votes (D2)

~~~~~~~
I'll try to comment this one soon. Need some thinking and a cigarette...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by myself

tp was highly suspiced on Day1

suspiced? (those anti-edit rules...)

[the phantom]

What to do.... what to do....

Here's who I already know that I'm not going to vote for today for one reason or another-
the phantom (duh)
Ang
Mith
Nogrod
SPM

So that leaves-
Di
Esty
Kath
Roa

I will try my best to give each of the four a read-over sometime in the next three hours. I haven't read all the posts that have been made today, but I'll get to them as soon as I can (I'm bogged down with a large and unexpected project).