Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

The Players:

Anguirel
Boromir88
Diamond18
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Estelyn Telcontar
Kath
littlemanpoet
Mithalwen
mormegil
Nogrod
Roa_Aoife
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

The Rules:

Days and Nights will last 24 hours each, with periods beginning and ending at approximately 10:00 PM (EST; GMT-5). Game-related PMs, e-mails, IMs, etc. - except to the moderator - are strictly banned during any part of the game. This includes wolf-to-wolf communication. Ghosts may communicate with each other, of course, but do remember that the Dead may not contact the Living.

There are 13 players. Two are wolves. They are unaware of each other's identities. There are no Gifted villagers.

During the Day period, villagers will publicly communicate suspicions, posit theories, test ideas, and behave in whatever fashion seems best to them. There is no minimum post requirement. However there will be no moderatorial intervention should the villagers choose to lynch a fellow player for quietness. Votes are semi-retractable: they may be revoked only once during each Day period. The second vote is final. All votes should be posted as

++PLAYER NAME

or

--PLAYER NAME.

Edits are strictly forbidden; any edits will result in immediate and unceremonious death: no narration, no warning. No edits. Double, triple, or quadruple post if you feel the need, but resist the urge to edit, even for spelling. All votes must be cast before the given deadline. Any posted after will be ignored by the moderator during tallying; the moderator will specify if a vote has not been counted among others. Do not delete posts. There will be no double-lynching; if a tie occurs, a decision will be made by the moderator with the flip of a coin: heads represents the first choice totalled, tails represents the second.

During the Night period, the two wolves will not communicate. They may not PM each other, as they do not know each other. Each wolf will PM only one choice of kill to the moderator; think carefully before sending a PM, as decisions are final. Should the wolves conveniently agree on a kill, the choice will be upheld without question. Upon disagreement, a decision will be made by the moderator with the flip of a coin: heads represents the first choice received, tails represents the second. Only one toss will occur.

All players must be invisible at all times.

---

Discussion Thread

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

A raven perched above the gate, glaring sullenly at the pounded dirt road, daring the riders to turn, to pause and to look past the shadows of twilight.

It was an entrance that only a tortured soul could so lovingly, so masterfully, produce: a barred gate, its supports painstakingly molded into the intertwining forms of snakes and chains, the twisted handles jeweled with ruby eyes. The dirt of the road extended beyond the high stone walls only as far as the wind could blow it over the time softened stonework of the wide, twisting drive. Dying trees were ornaments of a time long passed, and a small castle crumbling ruins now, overlooked the thorned flowerbeds, the dried out streams, and the murky ponds from the top of a low, overgrown hill.

The raven called to the two travellers and winged away from them, turning its back without concern, leaving them halted, uncertain, at the foot of the hill, looking from each other to the ivy-grown walls and beyond to the ruined towers atop the land.

"We must move on... it will soon be dark." A murmur. The wind had that special quality of lingering, of whispering, and the horses danced.

"Bad luck, that... tomorrow?"

"Yes... we shall together explore in the daylight." A last, lingering, ray of afternoon crowned the ruined castle. A moment later, the building was sillhouetted. A moment later, the travellers were gone.

The next night the Dark Lady waved a hand dismissively, glancing at her newest slaves with unhidden disdain, stroking the ebony head of the bird perched beside her. The room was cold; she sat crowned in silver and onyx and her black robes faded into the shadows. Her hair was long, black, a cape of silken night. Her skin was moonlight and her eyes were jeweled death. Her slaves had only ever met those haunting orbs once; it was enough to break the strongest soul to stare into the abyss. They had not been weak. Now, she reflected, they were powerless. They had suspected nothing... they would learn quickly to regret such oversight.

They had moved on toward the village, the simple village, the thatched, castle village which had once paid tribute to her greatness and her beauty. The people of that village had offered everything and now... they would become nothing.

Scholars and dismal laborers. They shared none of the greatness of their forebears of old. Weak. Helpless. She laughed derisively. Ordinary. And these twain had joined them. They slept amongst them, broke bread with them, and at the very break of dawn, they had unwittingly returned to her.

The raven had been waiting. The gate had been open. They had been afraid. And they had chanced it. They found her in the tower, her eyes ablaze in the morning light, the infinite blackness of them drawing them to her. They had arrived at dawn and they would leave at dawn.

Unhappy fools; her eyes closed, affording her quivering minions a moment's release from the concentrated hatred in her gaze. They have fallen and now shall rise again, stronger than before, strong with the power I have given them, strong with the moonlight and silver and blood and claw, and the blind fools... The blind fools will pay.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Day One has begun.

[the phantom]

I have a few things to say. Most of them are obvious, but I'm a loudmouth and feel the need to fill up space.

1) The WWs don't know each other, therefore all votes are meaningless. Everyone will vote the way an innocent would vote, because the only thing anyone knows is who they are, and so everyone will try and preserve their own life.

2) Kills might be meaningful.

3) One of the WWs might kill his/her buddy. I'm thinking there might be a way to very slightly increase the chances of this happening, but the instant I say it the ploy won't work. Which leads me to my next point-

4) THINK before posting anything strategic!! We have very very very few chances to do something good strategically because Fea has done all she can to make it a pure luck-based village. I can think of two somewhat positive strategies to use against the WWs, but the moment I explain them they will no longer be viable. Remember that! Some things are better kept to yourself. Don't tell us "watch for this-and-that WW behavior" because as soon as you say it you can no longer watch for it. Just execute whatever you think of, and cross your fingers and hope that a few other villagers are doing the same. Only talk strategy if it is a strategy that is not hurt when voiced.

5) And most importantly, I am not a Werewolf. You may put me down next to your own name on your proven innocent list.

[Boromir88]

5) And most importantly, I am not a Werewolf. You may put me down next to your own name on your proven innocent list~the phantom

That's good enough for me...

Known innocents:
The Phantom

Unknown:
Anguirel
Diamond18
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Estelyn Telcontar
Kath
littlemanpoet
Mithalwen
mormegil
Nogrod
Roa_Aoife
The Saucepan Man

That makes things a lot easer...I say we lynch Roa, I have an unfinished score to settle with her.

[Anguirel]

Very interesting. A selection of extremely loud villagers have been gathered, and are now being rapidly encouraged not to talk.

Well, I could shrug, say "suits me" and go back to my essay on Quixotism, Chivalry and Society, then return in the evening after a certain amount of wine and vote at random. It is tempting. I'm no one special. What difference can I make?

Bah humbug! phantom, I see one element of strategy that can helpfully be talked about.

The kills of the wolves, it seems to me, are rarely going to be unanimous, though a wolf in their right mind might well try their best to pick a target they thought their unknown partner was pursuing. This means there's going to be a frustrated wolf around a lot of the time. Will werewolfs try and put failed kills into action by day through persuasion?

And these rumours that we're being manipulated by some evil Daaaark Laaady. Pah. No ho paura. But it does take Mithalwen out of the running, surely...I don't see a blonde stooping to the employ of a brunette...

Then again...safe not to make assumptions...

Shall we try a day of blind lynch-mob behaviour and see what happens? Boro, I'm happy to lynch Roa if you like...

Remember everyone, we're the strongest village in history. We have no Seer, which gives the wolves, already diminished and confused, nothing to aim at! If you think about it, the cards are all on our side.

[littlemanpoet]

Just letting you all know I'm here.

For the lynching.

Feel free.

But you'd be wasting your vote.

Of course that means nothing to you that I say that.

Cry havoc ye gods of war and werewolf!

Avast.

Anguirel, I'll lynch you yet.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

While thinking to myself "Nothing to post..." I thought I'd throw in this little thought.

It's tempting to accept that we can't really get anywhere without luck. Is this going to lead us into a situation whereby we will be in exactly the same predicament on Day Two as we are in on Day One? And thence to Day Three similarly?

The wolves are not on the same page, so until we catch one we are puzzling over a muddled script. When/If we do catch one, we might make clearer guesses.

[The Saucepan Man]

Did anyone think to enquire whether the Wolves are working as a team or as lone hunters?

I did. And my understanding is that they are working alone. Which means that they are in competition.

This, I think, is a very useful piece of information. I paused to consider before deciding whether to set out my thoughts on how this might affect the situation, as I don’t want to give the Wolves any guidance as to how to behave to avoid detection. On balance, however, since any Wolf worth his or her salt (and every potential Wolf here is worth his or her salt) will be able to work it out, I thought it would be more advantageous to do so than not to do so. So, my preliminary thoughts based on this information are as follows.

First, the Wolves will be looking to kill each other, as well as killing innocent villagers. Indeed, I would go so far as to suggest that a Wolf's prime target at the moment will be the other Wolf. There is little advantage to an individual Wolf in having another Wolf operating independently in the village, given that there will still only be one nightly kill. Some advantage perhaps in the cover that it offers, but that is little different from the cover offered by innocent villagers. Certainly, to my mind, the disadvantages, to a Wolf, of having another Wolf operating independently outweigh any advantage. While both Wolves survive, then one is at risk of being killed by the other at night (and therefore losing), as well as being lynched during the day, and neither can be sure that their chosen nightly kill will end up dead the next morning. That the Wolves are out for each other’s blood should work to the village’s advantage while they both survive.

Secondly, since a dead Wolf is a losing Wolf, the Wolves are going to be far more afraid of dying than when hunting as a pack (where they can still end up on the winning team even if they die).

Originally Posted by Ang

Remember everyone, we're the strongest village in history. We have no Seer, which gives the wolves, already diminished and confused, nothing to aim at! If you think about it, the cards are all on our side.

I rather agree with this. We have no Gifteds to worry about. Since it is more than likely that we will kill a few innocents along the way to victory, we should not worry about doing so. It’s not like we will be killing our Seer or anything. Innocents, therefore, should not be afraid to die while we still have a significant advantage in numbers.

Very little to go on so far, so I have no suspects and no presumed innocents. I am, however, wary of the suggestion that we should focus our attention on one villager (namely Roa) as, unless that suggestion is by some chance (ie blind luck) correct, we will be making it much easier for the Wolves to avoid death.

[The Saucepan Man]

Another thought. How about we aim to make sure that each one of us has received one vote by the end of the day and leave it to blind luck who gets lynched?

Difficult to achieve, I suppose, as it will require the agreement and participation of every villager. One possibility is to have each villager vote for the person named after them on the original list in post #1, ie Ang votes for Boro, Boro votes for Di etc etc.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Would anyone like a glass of milk to go with their clueless posts?

So if we don't bandwagon against anyone, will my individual vote count for anything? Mind you, I have no one specific in mind, but am puzzled as to how we are to arrive at a consensus. As it is now, I will have to vote early and thereby have no possibility whatsoever of actually influencing the outcome of the day.

*starts trying to recall all the children's rhymes that were once used for random decisionmaking...

Saucy, your suggestion means Fea could play the game all by herself, just tossing a coin each day and letting us know what happens.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Another thought. How about we aim to make sure that each one of us has received one vote by the end of the day and leave it to blind luck who gets lynched?

Difficult to achieve, I suppose, as it will require the agreement and participation of every villager. One possibility is to have each villager vote for the person named after them on the original list in post #1, ie Ang votes for Boro, Boro votes for Di etc etc.

The problem there, as I see it, is that Fea stated that she would only take the first two to reach a tie; in other words in your scenario Boro and Di would be the two candidates for lynching and nobody else unless you have a 13 sided coin.

5) And most importantly, I am not a Werewolf. You may put me down next to your own name on your proven innocent list.

Glad to know that! I mean for just a second I thought I had better examine what you say. Now I know that I can focus elsewhere, because Fea simply wouldn't ever make you a wolf to satisfy her own morbid sense of chaos.

[Anguirel]

Weeell. If you're right, Sauce, about the wolves being in competition, that puts us in an incredibly strong position, but I must say I got no hint of that either in the narration or the rules.

So by the scenario you think we're in, if the village is reduced to four and the two wolves live, the struggle continues?

I must say I don't put credence in that. Unless this is specifically clarified by Fea, I will assume that the two werewolves regard each other as (albeit unknown and unpredictable) allies. Having what would be in effect a pair of Werebears seems to make the whole affair far too difficult for the enemy. This is an unorthodox pack, but a pack nonetheless, methinks.

I think we should recall that the, ahem, Dark Lady of the Werewolves hinted that personal animus and politics, relating to her and each other, might play some role. Would it be useful, then, to confess to any feuds we nurse against our fellow villagers? Some shadows of the past have already surfaced...Boro wants Roa hanged and LMP remembers Shamville...

[Mithalwen]

*arrives a little startled* ... sorry this is a slightly earlier start than expected and I have had little time to do more than read the rules such as they are and skim the posts ... doesn't seem that anyone has declared a dislike of Day Ones yet..

This really is a bit of a Donald Rumsfeld farewell game ... known unknowns and no doubt many unknown unknowns.... so stabbing in the dark may be order of the day.... more no doubt later but that tiresome thing called gainful employement interupts....

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Interesting idea, SPM, I had not even considered that possibility.

Also, on further inspection: when does the game end? Who can win? I really want to assume nothing and suspect that every word (and omitted word) in Fea's introduction hides vast trickery and deceit.

[Anguirel]

Point taken, Eomer. So the fact there's no reference to the endgame means we're probably going to be stuck as the Dark Lady's pawns for the rest of eternity.

Oh, well. I could think of worse fates. Esty, whip me up a nice buttercream and jam tart while I dredge up a sonnet for a bit of literary analysis, will you?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hasn't the Everybody does; moderator wins thing been done before?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Everybody does? Well, we do lots of stuff. Did I mean 'dies'? Of course.

*looks sheepish and shakes fist at anti-editing law*

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Esty

Saucy, your suggestion means Fea could play the game all by herself, just tossing a coin each day and letting us know what happens.

Well, as it stands, aren't we more or less going to be metaphorically tossing a coin ourselves, on Day 1 at least ...?

Originally Posted by morm

The problem there, as I see it, is that Fea stated that she would only take the first two to reach a tie; in other words in your scenario Boro and Di would be the two candidates for lynching and nobody else unless you have a 13 sided coin.

The only reference that I can find is in post #1:

There will be no double-lynching; if a tie occurs, a decision will be made by the moderator with the flip of a coin: heads represents the first choice totalled, tails represents the second.

Using a coin suggests that the tie will be two-way, but does not preclude the possibility of more than two villagers being tied at the end of the day and each one being at risk of random lynching.

Originally Posted by Ang

I must say I don't put credence in that. Unless this is specifically clarified by Fea, I will assume that the two werewolves regard each other as (albeit unknown and unpredictable) allies. Having what would be in effect a pair of Werebears seems to make the whole affair far too difficult for the enemy. This is an unorthodox pack, but a pack nonetheless, methinks.

My understanding derives from my pre-game enquiries. Although, knowing this particular Dark Lady, I wouldn't put it past her to have answered my enquiry with the specific aim of causing confusion.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by me

Using a coin suggests that the tie will be two-way, but does not preclude the possibility of more than two villagers being tied at the end of the day and each one being at risk of random lynching.

Actually, the reference to the first and second choices totalled indicates that you may be right. We could do with some clarification on this point ...

[Kath]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Actually, the reference to the first and second choices totalled indicates that you may be right. We could do with some clarification on this point ...

Though with Fea's disappearance we won't have it for some time.

Even with the level of blind luck we're having to work with here, there are still ways of working out who the wolves are without the usual voting record and association analyses. We may also benefit from the lack of any Gifted players as we needn't worry about having pegged the Seer as a wolf (which a number of people here have done).

Originally Posted by Ang

Would it be useful, then, to confess to any feuds we nurse against our fellow villagers? Some shadows of the past have already surfaced...Boro wants Roa hanged and LMP remembers Shamville...

Perhaps this could be a way to decide the lynch toDay. If everyone lists who they have a grudge against, for whatever reason, we could lynch the person the most people have grudges against. This way, when it got to say Day 3, we might avoid the usual problem of falling back onto past games and unsettled scores.

[Anguirel]

Lady Kath, I'm not certain so precise a grudge-listing would grant me a particularly long life...but it's certainly an idea...

OK, I'm willing to co-operate. phantom and Boro me ol' pals: Remember the Fen of Serech, otherwise known as the tenth village...

Or perhaps it would be Quath. Hmmm...spoilt for choice...

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Well, we could tackle the matter from the other side - each of us declares whether or not s/he is a werewolf! Really, people - are we going to trust phantom's word that he isn't?!

I, of course, am not a wolf. Milkmaids are always symbolic of innocence and purity, and literary milkmaids are always fair of face, with tidy hair, starched white aprons, soft clean hands, nary a trace of perspiration, and not a whiff of the animals with whom they spend much of their day...

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by SPM

How about we aim to make sure that each one of us has received one vote by the end of the day and leave it to blind luck who gets lynched?

Originally Posted by Esty

Saucy, your suggestion means Fea could play the game all by herself, just tossing a coin each day and letting us know what happens.

Do you really trust Fea to "flip a coin"?

She will be killing whoever she wishes throughout this game. When the WWs make their picks, she will kill the one she feels like killing.

Not that I'm complaining. As surpreme mod-god she has that right, and will no doubt choose kills that she feels will make this venture more entertaining.

Rest assured, despite all claims to the contrary, our host's lovely hands are unlikely to come into contact with any coins during the course of this slaughter.

And no, SPM, let's not tie everyone. The Dark Lady already has enough power without us handing her every bit of it. Let's at least be in control of the one area in which we have power (the lynch). The only way I'd ever support your random lynch plan is if I was the favorite to be lynched. In that case, I would definitely cry out for a mass tie and random lynching.

I think about the most useful thing we can do today is look at the list and decide who the "Dark Lady" would choose as WWs. Any thoughts?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Kath

If everyone lists who they have a grudge against, for whatever reason, we could lynch the person the most people have grudges against. This way, when it got to say Day 3, we might avoid the usual problem of falling back onto past games and unsettled scores.

That makes sense.

Originally Posted by Ang

phantom and Boro me ol' pals: Remember the Fen of Serech, otherwise known as the tenth village...

Ah yes- the village where you were the Ranger and Boro, Lal, and I survived to win as WWs. Surely you don't still have a grudge from that. You had a successful protection the 2nd to last night, so I don't see a reason for you to feel to down about your performance in that village.

Heh- I just thought.... you as the Ranger have a grudge against Boro and I as WWs, and you and Boro as WWs (WPenguins actually) have a grudge against me as the Hunter. Er- fake Hunter actually. A brilliant move on my part, I must say.

Do I have a grudge against anyone? I can't think of one right off hand. If anyone thinks of a grudge that I should have against someone just let me know.

[Anguirel]

Fair dos. Here's what I think about the Fearewolf credentials of each villager.

Anguirel - I'd be quite likely. I've killed Fea as a wolf before in WWJIII, though I was eventually defeated. I also eventually got her strung up from beyond the grave in WWI.

Boromir88 - few personal motives here except what a terrifying wolf he always makes.

Diamond18 - Skittles and Diamond's near-perfect innocence so far makes this plausible.

Eomer of the Rohirrim - Clearly a no-brainer. Of course Fea would love Eomer as her bondsman. But she might also like him to save the day heroically as a villager. Not so much of a no-brainer.

Estelyn Telcontar - Well, I'm not sure I'd be able to resist. Would Fea?

Kath - Though she's a deadly operator, I could see Fea going after slightly more risque wolves.

littlemanpoet - WWIII, the Eorling Mead Hall and ATM make a strong connection here...

Mithalwen - similar to Esty. But Mith does make such a delightful heroine.

mormegil - plausible on account of his habitual loudness, but no particular history of antagonism here that I remember.

Nogrod - a career too chequered to be true?

Roa_Aoife - all I can say is whatever side Roa's on, Fea will be angling to break her victorious track record...

the phantom - sort of similar to Eomer, with a darker twist

The Saucepan Man - is our Dark Lady as sadistic as she sounds? Not that much of a feud here, so similar case to Boro

Conclusions - pretty scant.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'd like to remind you that I have a 100% record of being an innocent villager.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Oh, and a 100% record of being on the winning side too!

[the phantom]

And I have a 100% record of Esty being in every game that I mod.

So, Ang, if I'm reading your list correctly, based on mod-preference you would recommend lynching Esty- and yourself. How selfless of you. I will add you to my little list.

My current lynch list-
Ang
Di
Esty
morm

People I won't be voting for today-
Boro
Eomer
Kath
lmp
mith
Nogrod
Roa
tp
SPM

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Moi?! On your lynch list? How did that happen?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Esty

Moi?! On your lynch list? How did that happen?

Because if I was modding I would've made you a WW. Without a doubt.

[Boromir88]

But your not modding

[Anguirel]

phantom, your dogma is pretty inflexible at the moment. That makes me think you more likely to be innocent - so far.

However, your assertions that Fea is going to pick everything rather than randomise it exaggerate our plight, I feel. Besides, let's look at what the Lady actually said -

Originally Posted by Dark Lady

There was a reason each of you were chosen. You all know me. You also know each other, at least to a point.

Though I didn't directly choose the wolves, you may not want to assume it was a completely random choice.

That implies elements of luck and preference - perhaps randomised shortlists which were then manipulated, but in any case no reason to brand Esty a wolf immediately...

[Diamond18]

Hello, hello again, sha-boom I'm hoping we'll meet again....

Who do I have grudges against? Who would I most like to throw sharp and pointy items at? EOMER! Eomer! Ha ha ha ha haaaaa! And Boromir. He knows I swore to have my revenge on him, and no, I have not yet gotten it, good sir.

But really, I think that tp is a wolf, because, look at the moderator. End of story!

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Boro

But your not modding

Ah, but that doesn't make my observation useless. Both Ang and I have stated that we would have an extreme desire to make Esty a WW if we were modding. Surely marking someone as an attractive WW means something.

Originally Posted by Ang

However, your assertions that Fea is going to pick everything rather than randomise it exaggerate our plight, I feel.

Oh, well. I'm just speaking my mind.

Originally Posted by Ang

That implies elements of luck and preference - perhaps randomised shortlists which were then manipulated

Fea doesn't have to tell the truth if she doesn't want to. She can subtly mislead us or outright lie to us.

Originally Posted by Di

But really, I think that tp is a wolf, because, look at the moderator.

Too obvious and predictable. And don't give me the bluff-option. It's just plain old too predictable- not what Fea would want for this village.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by tp

Both Ang and I have stated that we would have an extreme desire to make Esty a WW if we were modding. Surely marking someone as an attractive WW means something.

Well, I suppose. But I never get to play with Esty, I don't want her to die right away. So there. That's logic for you.

Boromir, on the other hand, now here's a fellow I've played with several times, and who killed me second to last time, when I was the Seer and had dreamt of him and had spent half the night writing up an eviscerating analysis of him. That's why I think I shall be voting for him toDay.

So there, there's my completely random and petty reasoning, ha ha!

Now I'll hang around a bit, talking lots of nonsense, before writing my vote in stone and hightailing it out of here.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Thanks, Di! Here I was thinking I'd finally let myself get talked into participating in a WW game for the first time since a year ago only to get lynched on the first day...

Now, I enjoy getting called "attractive" by young men, but does it have to be in the context of "attractive werewolf?!

[Diamond18]

Okay, so, here's the self defense portion of today's posting.

I can echo Esty's sentiment:

I'd like to remind you that I have a 100% record of being an innocent villager.

But unlike Esty I have several games under my belt which makes this stat far more impressive. In fact, I've lost count of how many games I've played in thus far, but I've been lily-white in every single one of them. I think it's been upwards of ten or so games.

So, there is a rule in WW, which it would do you well to consider:

Said Rule

Diamond18 is not evil. She has never been evil. She will never be evil. So let it be written, so let it be done. Or not done, depending on how you are interpreting the word "it" in this context. If "it" is "a moderator assigning an evil role to Diamond" then "not done" is the proper phraseology.

Thank you for your time.

[Kath]

If we're going on petty reasoning the only person I have is morm, but I have no grudge against him, we've just played too many games together to assume we're on the same side.

Oh, and I suppose I could have something against Ang, but since I got him lynched from beyond the grave I'm pretty sure we can call that quits.

[Nogrod]

An interesting mix of randomness and hidden determinism we have here...

The problem surely is that both ends seem to eliminate free will and reasonable decision making by our part. But as always I would carry the card of reasoning here, even against all odds.

I agree with the phantom that we should not give any more of our limited powers to the Dark Lady and her random-machinery / personal picks.

That would call for actual points made against people here, hopefully cases with arguments. They will be tough to make in a game like this where the dynamics are so different (as long as we have two wolves alive, even the Nightly kills will not tell us much, if anything).

Looking at the grudges is a nice idea, but it probably has only entertainment value (that should not be underestimated, thoug) and it might steer the voting somewhat. Unfortunately it has about nothing to do with getting the wolves.

Thinking whom Fea might pick as wolves - if and when she has hand picked them with some level of randomness - could be a better approach. But with this entourage, it will be very hard (and thence again, enter randomness).

Then there is the traditional way of looking at peoples posting and looking at them again... Laborous but making the game much fun and challenging. And surely we wish to answer Fea's challenge: can you reason your way out when everything is geared up to maximise the absence of clues?

The first one I came up with concerns Spm. He says:

Did anyone think to enquire whether the Wolves are working as a team or as lone hunters?
I did.

Now Spm might be a thorough player who even as an ordo will think through all possible variations before the game and PM the mod in advance to get clearance for any issues that have been unclear to him.

I do not deny that possibility. But... and but. What it looks like is a person who has been appointed as a wolf and who then had an interest to know as that thought would have easily come into a wolf's mind. And a wolf would need to know it.

I do not say entertaining ideas on what the villains will do is bad for villagers, quite the contrary. But somehow asking via PM that question in advance sounds a bit too exhaustive preparation for an ordo-game.

Why did he speak about it openly then? He would have guessed someone might make note of it as I do here? I don't know... maybe he just wanted to look helpful and thoughtful. Which he is indeed, if he is an ordo!