WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Look better: Sally
Look worse: Shasta, Nogrod, Brinn, Lommy (If I have the time, I will give these fellas a closer look toDay)

If Pitch is wolf 2 and Wilwa is wolf 3, I'll be damned if wolf 4 is not among those four.


Will do.

Mnemo, Pitchie, Wilwa, and Lommy. I'd bet that's our pack.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Intriguing idea. There is the problem that you guys can't verify what I say, then, until I die, but it might work. Of course, my supporting "the plan" could easily be taken as a wolf realizing what a tight spot I was in and seeing a good way to avoid it, so I'm not going to try to push it, but if everyone else wants to, I'd be willing to go along...or would be, if I hadn't already voted.

And, okay, 2/3 makes sense.

Yeah, I thought of it after I'd voted as well. Of course we could still pull it off if we coordinate our efforts but there is the question of whether we can trust you.


Now if we'd known there was a seer you'd be trusted and protected yadda yadda and the plan would work perfectly but unfortunately in this situation, not so much.

[Loslote]

If it helps, Legate called the role the ,,birthday dreamer'' (with the funny commas and everything) and I was forbidden to reveal on Day 1.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

If it helps, Legate called the role the ,,birthday dreamer'' (with the funny commas and everything) and I was forbidden to reveal on Day 1.

Hmmmm. Interesting indeed. I wonder if the 'regular' gifteds were given the same instructions. *shrugs* And weird on the name. The one-time dream makes sense now though, so good on that.

[satansaloser2005]

*hears crickets*

All right, I think I'll head off for a while then. I'm attending a concert at college (because the duck is a musical genius, etc. and I promised our other friend I'd go) so I'll be unavailable for some time after I leave.

You know, no one's analyzed me properly this game. I'm very sad.

[Loslote]

Morsul --> Morsul
Lottie --> Bes
Nerwen --> Nienna
Wilwa --> Nienna
Eomer --> Sally
Bes --> Lottie
Boro --> Wilwa
Pitch --> Sally
Mac --> Wilwa
Greenie -->Sally (3)
Sally --> Wilwa (3)
Lommy --> Nienna (3)
Nogrod --> Nienna (4)
Nienna --> Wilwa (4)
Brinniel --> Sally (4)
Shasta --> Nienna (5)

Since Nienna was innocent, and I think Wilwa and Lommy are furry, let's see how this played out.

After Nerwen, Wilwa was second to vote Nienna, putting her in the lead (though admittedly there were only two votes, neither very helpful, at the time.) Then Eomer voted Sally, and Boro voted Wilwa. Next Pitchie voted Sally, and then Mac voted Wilwa. Greenie put Sally in the lead, then Sally tied it with a vote for Wilwa, and Lommy voted Nienna to bring it to a three way tie. Nog, Nienna, and Brinn voted for Nienna, Wilwa, and Sally, respectively, and then Shasta broke the tie and voted Nienna.

Both Lommy and Wilwa voted for Nienna. Wilwa put Nienna in the lead, and Lommy tied her with Sally and Wilwa. Pitchie voted for Sally, tying her with Nienna. Not sure what, exactly, this means, but it sure doesn't disprove my "Mnemo, Pitchie, Wilwa, Lommy pack" idea.

EDIT: xed with Sally

[satansaloser2005]

You know, I'm wondering how likely it is that Shasta is a wolf, or at least a really clever one. He could have left Nienna to die since she reached the tie number first, but he voted for her anyway. If I was a wolf in his position I'd have just let nature take its course but he didn't. Had anyone not voted at the end of the Day that might have posed a threat to a Wilwolf packmate?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nienna, with additions

Morsul --> Morsul
Lottie --> Bes
Nerwen --> Nienna
Wilwa --> Nienna
Eomer --> Sally
Bes --> Lottie
Boro --> Wilwa
Pitch --> Sally
Mac --> Wilwa
Greenie -->Sally (3)
Sally --> Wilwa (3)
Lommy --> Nienna (3)
Nog-->Nienna (4)
Nienna-->Wilwa (4)
Brinn-->Sally (4)

Sorry, have to actually go through the list to check. Nope, everything else was out. So why did he make the extra step to vote Nienna? It seems so weird to me.

Maybe he knows what Legate's other secret event is? Perhaps it's making a lynch random in the event of an x+-way tie? Heck if I know, but it looks awkward.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

You know, I'm wondering how likely it is that Shasta is a wolf, or at least a really clever one. He could have left Nienna to die since she reached the tie number first, but he voted for her anyway. If I was a wolf in his position I'd have just let nature take its course but he didn't. Had anyone not voted at the end of the Day that might have posed a threat to a Wilwolf packmate?

Actually, by that point, everyone else had already voted. Maybe Shasta was unsure if the person lynched was going to be the first to get the points, or a coin flip, or something else entirely, so he voted just in case. Or, my preferred theory: Shasta's an ordo who wanted to vote because that's what he's supposed to do and he didn't care what the implications were.

EDIT: xed with Sally, who said much the same thing.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Actually, by that point, everyone else had already voted. Maybe Shasta was unsure if the person lynched was going to be the first to get the points, or a coin flip, or something else entirely, so he voted just in case. Or, my preferred theory: Shasta's an ordo who wanted to vote because that's what he's supposed to do and he didn't care what the implications were.

Yeah, that's possible too. But he knew the first to count would go, because didn't it happen another Day? Meh, I don't know; I just found it strange.



EDIT: Happy 2,500 posts to me!!!!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Yeah, that's possible too. But he knew the first to count would go, because didn't it happen another Day? Meh, I don't know; I just found it strange.

It's possible that he thought he knew, but didn't have time to check and didn't want to run the risk.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

It's possible that he thought he knew, but didn't have time to check and didn't want to run the risk.

Very good point. To be fair I'd likely err on the side of caution as well in that case. Whatever his leaning either he was intentionally ensuring that Nienna died or just voting because he knes it wouldn't make a difference and he had to.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Very good point. To be fair I'd likely err on the side of caution as well in that case. Whatever his leaning either he was intentionally ensuring that Nienna died or just voting because he knes it wouldn't make a difference and he had to.

In any case, I don't think Shasta is a wolf. I've already said who I think the wolves are. Now it's just picking apart minute points...

[Loslote]

I'm off, then, and probably won't be on again for a few hours. I will almost definitely be on before deadline, though.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

In any case, I don't think Shasta is a wolf. I've already said who I think the wolves are. Now it's just picking apart minute points...

Well we can always agree to disagree, at least on one point. I'm nearly certain that one of Lommie and Wilwa is a wolf, I'm just not completely convinced they both are. If one of them isn't, I'm going to put Shasta as a fourth, but I'll agree both of them are on my top suspects list. *shrugs* And yes, the details.


EDIT: x'd with Lottie. Dearie, see you later toDay. Oh, and have a good night (assuming it's evening for you). Can't have you doing a victory (or completely screwed) dance on little to no sleep, can we?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, sorry Nienna: but I'm sure you realise that you were a decent lynch choice and are helping the progress of the expedition. Our knowledge increases, even with incorrect lynches.

I don't see what we can lose by trusting Loslote for one day. So, unless something crazy happens, I will be voting Pitch today. And I considered Pitch innocent before, hmm....

Too much brandy renders me useless for now. I will probably see you tomorrow to add a vote for Pitch. Until then: enjoy life, fellow players.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, I'm off in a few minutes. You won't be hearing from me for three hours or so, so be productive and behave yourselves while Mummy's away.

[Nogrod]

Hey Mac, you say I'm suspicious because of being consistent without no obvious malintent. Let me ask you what would you have said if I had been inconsistent with an obvious malintent?

What this tells me is that you have first decided that you would like to walk me to the gallows and then come up with reasons afterwards. Sad. So sad.

And Brinn, you asked me something yesterDay... I had to go back and look as the last half an hour I only had sporadic access to reading as we were sharing the computer.

Well you can look at my posts #489 and #541 to begin with. I'll just copy a part of #541 here...

Originally Posted by me

You go deep and far and make it laborious to defend Nienna; looking at the reservations you seem to carefully put in every other place as if to not openly or actually defend her...

You "don't care to see her lynched toDay", but still you make awful lot about it trying to sway us from lynching her...

Talking about Nienna - Mac made the point I was wondering earlier on her reaction earlier toDay

To me that looks like a desperate try to sway the people from looking otherwise. I mean really, from the three Lottie-voters left she's ready to bet there are "at least" two wolves there? Hasty or evil?

So Mac also: it was not only consistent but also piling up during the Day. Sadly it was wrong as well.


Okay. I try to stay up long enough to make a summary of what I saw in relation to Pitch going through the thread.

[satansaloser2005]

Nog, go to bed!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Hey Mac, you say I'm suspicious because of being consistent without no obvious malintent.

The placement of your vote is still very bad. Since you are not stupid, you know that. You still joke about this obvious, valid point, which only makes you more suspicious in my eyes.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So Mac also: it was not only consistent but also piling up during the Day.

As I said before, that proves nothing in either way.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

The placement of your vote is still very bad.
...
You still joke about this obvious, valid point, which only makes you more suspicious in my eyes.

Having two other players + the mod in my place around the DL after first preparing food for the people and then socialising the last hours with them by dinner eg. not seeing the thread in something like four hours or so (and with one working computer and another with a cranky internet connection for the last hour) kind of gives me not too many options to strategically look after the placement of my vote to look especially good in your eyes (like I would consider that in the first place if I was at home with all peace and the PC to myself)... or to think about it too much as there was little chance to read all the stuff that happened during the last hours / minutes.

I thought we made our situation clear yesterDay.

As I said before, that proves nothing in either way.

Agreed. But that's kind of a lousy counter-argument / rhetorical trick, as it's hard to see how anything one says can be "proven" in a WW-game (things confirmed with death notwithstanding)...

What are you up to man?

[Nogrod]

Okay, I have never tried this kind of analysis before... let's see if it helps anyone but me.

So a + means the one thinks Pitchie more good than evil, a 0 means something like neutrality, and a - means the one thinks him more suspisious than not.

I have not taken known innocents abroad but Greenie seemed to suspect Pitchie quite (to the end) a lot and Inzil was more or less wavering. I have included Mnemo though just to show the perspective.

And the mentionings are in the order they appeared on that Day...

Day1

Mac: + (gives an innocent feel)
Mac: - (might be suspicious)
Lommy: 0 (inclined to like him but is he too agreeable?)
Morsul: + (feels innocent)
Nog: - (three people: considerate and reasonable, thus dangerous)
Boro: - (four people: expecting more from but far from seeing it)
Mnemo: - (Pitch & Inzil; feel a bit off, maybe a vote, wants to hear more)
Mac: - (too quick with declaration of innocence; not sure anymore) sure?
Mnemo: - (Pitch & Inzil; giving her the closest thing to a wolvish vibe)
Eomer: - (will probably vote for someone out of seven candidates; no reason given for Pitch being there)
Mac: + (would like to avoid voting him alongside five others - while not voting eight others)
Mac: + (he looked first innocent, then less and yet more innocent again)
Nog: - (Pitch & Inzil; looks helpful rather than is, careful indeed)

Day2

Mac: - (bandwagoning on him on D1, throws stuff but claims it a vibe-thing)
Mnemo: 0 (Pitch & Inzil: wants to make a deeper look at them)
Nog: - (agree with Mac it looks bandwagonish… seems very careful not to rub anyone the wrong way. Some very odd posts)
Lottie: - (looks suspicious, but doesn't have anything solid yet)
Nog: -(puts a lot of effort to look like he's discussing people but ending up round and about with everyone, restating earlier points - as it is a list post)
Mac: (says earlier two times and here as well that he will look at Pitch closer...)
Bes: - (after Macanalysis ending up willing to vote him he says he might have considered me or Pitchie as well)
Mnemo: - (makes a damning analysis: silly jumpiness & posting in chunks)
Lommy: - (leaning guilty list: he's one of the five, no explanation given)
Mac: 0 (needs to "verify his own suspicion" but doesn't like the way people suspect him)
Lommy: - (comments on votes given; wouldn't be so sorry if Pitch died, because there's something fishy in his posts)
Nog: - (some of his posting looks odd and over-careful, giving two examples #110 & #127 of wishing especially to look contributing, well-tuned and friendly and careful not to rub anyone the wrong way)
Sally: - (lists him along the "possible wolves", not wolves though or those she doesn't have anything)
wilwa: - (could vote him among others; makes her feel uneasy and is iffy)
Nog: - (speculating on voting possibilities and restating things already said)
Wilwa: 0 (thought she might go with Pitch but decides to stick with Boro)
Sally: - ("another bad vibe, to be honest; I had evidence but can't remember what it was right now, so basically he's just acting strange and I don't like it")
Bes: - (will not vote but stays with the same three suspect; Mac, Nog & Pitch)

Day3

Eomer: + (because of the Mnemo voting him)
Nog: + (because of the Mnemo voting him and him voting Mnemo)
Mac: + (the voting + the wolves picking Inzil: "Safe to say, I think, that the wolves would not have chosen him if Pitch was one of them")
Wilwa: + (Mnemo voted him at a time that he very well could have been lynched)
Lottie: 0 (seems innocent, maybe too much so?) [later put him into slightly suspected category in a list]
Nerwen: + (Mnemo's vote was unlikely a wolf-on-wolf)
Mac: + (with evidence and feeling Pitch is "quite good")
Wilwa: - (reconsiders: his vote on D1 tied Mac with Mnemo and on D2 it might have been a give-up)
Lommy: + (quite convinced he's an ordo: no bad vibes + Mnemo-stuff)
Shasta: - (agrees with Wilwa, could vote for him with three others)


A few thoughts to follow...

[Nogrod]

Everyone can see what people thought of Pitch, but the more interesting thing to me is who didn't say things about him or when they did if they did. I've been a wolf quite many times and claim to know how it "usually" goes. Some stick to the front and interact with each other - even voting each other - while others are ignored... and it's the last issue I'm now interested about.


Interestingly Brinn has not said a word about Pitch in the whole game! And her happiness in claiming the moral highground toDay hasn't made me feel better of her.

Nerwen was quiet about Pitchie D1 and 2 and only commented yesterDay that Mnemo's vote probably was not a wolf-on-wolf.

Boro and Eomer belong to the similar kind of a club: Boro makes a slight point of waiting more from four posters (Pitch included) but never returns to Pitch after that; Eomer says later on D1 that he could vote one of seven in his list (Pitch included) and then the next time he mentions him it's his beginning post where he says that because of the voting Pitch is more likely innocent.

Morsul says early on D1 that Pitch feels innocent and after that there is no mention of Pitch in his posts.

Not everyone mentioned here is a wolf - and not all people have time or a habit to make summaries or lists. But I'd bet a lot that there is at least one in there.


Shasta and Wilwa were independent enough (alongside Greenie) to suspect Pitch still yesterDay when most of us others were happy with the double w-on-w not being believable. That would talk good of them, to me at least.


Mac has really been going to and fro with Pitchie. Or has he?

Looking at it from the Devil's advocate's perspective he starts on D1 with mild suspicion, then when others suspect Pitch as well he starts backtracking and speaking in favour of him later on to the Day. On D2 he's mildly critical of him (as the general mood was that) but doesn't like the way others suspect Pitch. On D3 he starts bringing forwards theories why Pitch is innocent (wolves choosing Inzil) and saying that with both "feeling and evidence" he's quite good...

And then toDay he says this...

Originally Posted by Mac

I don't mean to criticise those who want to analyse Pitch, and I'm aware that I'm contradicting my comment about a boring Day, but aren't you counting your chicken before they're hatched? All your work could, in theory, be for nothing.

I can see that possibility and would hate that being true, but we have to try when we have time and while we're alive...

So now good night. See you later in the Day!

[Nerwen]

Well. I'll not deny I'm very surprised by this latest turn of events– but with hindsight, Pitch being a wolf does make sense– it would explain why Mnemo made such a weird and implausible case against him.

By the way, do you realise he started the "Mr Agreeable" thing? He said something on Day One about how "wolves often try to seem agreeable"... just as Mnemo insisted that in anyone else her own behaviour would scream "YAY I'M A WOLF!"

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Yeah, I thought of it after I'd voted as well. Of course we could still pull it off if we coordinate our efforts but there is the question of whether we can trust you.

Now if we'd known there was a seer you'd be trusted and protected yadda yadda and the plan would work perfectly but unfortunately in this situation, not so much.

I don't think this plan is worth the risk, Sally. We'd indeed have to trust Lottie 100 per cent– and if she is a wolf after all, we could well be down several innocents before we get around to lynching her.

EDIT:X'd with multiple Nogs since last reading.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I don't think this plan is worth the risk, Sally. We'd indeed have to trust Lottie 100 per cent– and if she is a wolf after all, we could well be down several innocents before we get around to lynching her.

Fair enough, which is why I just explained the plan and wasn't like "Guyz, we ttly gotta do dis nao! Kthnxbye!" (Sorry, I completely couldn't resist.)


Anyway back now. Gonna snag a bit of late dinner and then I'll look things over again.

[satansaloser2005]

No one on? This makes me sad.


Also, I hit 2,500 posts at some point today. Yay!

[Loslote]

I just got back from babysitting for three hours...so drained...will be going to bed soon. *yawns* But I will be around for a little while first.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It bothers me that so many people (Mac, Sally, Lommy, Brinn) think I look so bad, without actually saying why. Reasons, please?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What are you up to man?

Figuring out whether you're a wolf or not, of course. I seem to be the only one suspecting you, which gives you the option to not take my points very seriously, since most likely they won't lead to your lynching anyway. That's why I have to poke you a little harder.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I thought we made our situation clear yesterDay.

Alright, I didn't think of that. Vote placement is out of the window. You still voted for an innocent and not for who I think is a wolf. You're not of the hook, my friend.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Shasta and Wilwa were independent enough (alongside Greenie) to suspect Pitch still yesterDay when most of us others were happy with the double w-on-w not being believable. That would talk good of them, to me at least.

The devil's advocate says that doing w-on-w is safest when nobody else suspects that one. Also, you're forgetting that Pitch and Mnemo were doing some heavy exercise in it, too.

Originally Posted by Shasta

It bothers me that so many people (Mac, Sally, Lommy, Brinn) think I look so bad, without actually saying why. Reasons, please?

This is interesting. The reason for suspecting you (at least for me) is mostly your horrible voting record (yesterDay it was just sketchy, now it's pretty evil). A wolf, however, is always very aware of their record - bad conscience and all that. You're a little less suspicious to me now.

[Thinlómien]

Reading and commenting at the same time...

Loslote, please, next time you interpret my posts in an obscure way, can you put the numbers of the posts there so that I can find them and explain? I'm very annoyed at my computer and a radio channel called Groove FM and the last thing I need is a wishy washy case on me which I can't even defend myself against because it is unclearly presented. /end rant

Ok sorry but that really irked me. Now off to actually reply the stuff which I feel I should reply to or where I feel you were misrepresenting me:

Originally Posted by Loslote

Post 19: Here she switches her positions entirely. Suddenly she's suspicious of Mac, but not of Nog or Mnemo. Where'd that come from?

Originally Posted by me

Mac is getting weird and jumpy. (Ha! Fourth jumpy wolf!) Nog, on the other hand, seems more reasonable.

Only the fact that Mnemo is gathering more and more suspicion is making me doubtful: like I've been telling people who never listen to me (:P), if someone who is not shouting a wolf is lynched with too much of a consensus s/he's probably an innocent.

=> representation doesn't really do justice to me. Mac's and Nog's behaviour changed a bit, so I notified it, but it doesn't mean I changed my mind about them. And I certainly was still suspicious of Mnemo, just slightly worried because so many others were feeling (or "feeling") the same way.

Originally Posted by Los

Post 31: Admits that Nienna was probably innocent after her death is assured; she seems to have gotten this from the fact that Nienna was, in fact, lynched? I'm not following that one..

"Admits"? Huh, that sounds quite bad. And I got that from Shasta voting her; I just got this sudden feeling she must be innocent since Shasta voted her. I'm not claiming that makes sense, I just got a feeling like that and posted it. And I do suspect Shasta himself.

Err sorry Loslote, don't take this personally, I mean not to bash you as a person, or diss your merits in this game (after you got us a wolf!) but I just feel you're misrepresenting me which does not make me exactly happy. I believe you're innocent* and thus not purposefully making a case that seems really silly (at least to me) but I just think you're not tight (obviously ) and grasping at straws.

*although there is the possibility that Los and Pitch are both wolves, but that would be really suicidial of them and easily found out, so it doesn't really make sense.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Talking of Mr. Agreeable... there's quite little he suspected and thus there's probably quite little to read from his posts - which doesn't mean we should just not check his posting as well. We should actually read closely what he has said of other people. But I think it might be even more enlightening to see how others related to him - especially when there was something like a suspicion on him which then suddenly disappeared. So how did it actually fade? I remember myself suspecting him but soon realising basically no one suspected him anymore and then I decided to focus on others - but was it just his sweet-talking as Mr. Agreeable or were there anything outside of what he said himself that triggered the change?

If I have time, I will look at his and Mnemo's interactions with people so that I may form a sort of consistent picture - that would be interesting. I myself dropped my suspicions of Pitchwife after a few people had argued that his and Mnemo's interactions seemed unfellowish and I took their arguments as plausible, especially as I had gradually felt les and less bad about Pitchie. And once I had decided to consider him innocent for the time being, there was nothing that would've changed my mind...

Originally Posted by Shasta

"Nogrod has quite good points against Pitchie, but I still wonder about him too." Lommy, when you say "him", which "him" are you referring to? Pitch or Nog?

I was referring to Nog. (That was like "Nogrod has good points that make me suspect Pitch, but I still suspect Nogrod as well".)

It's a pity Loslote gets only one dream, not only for the obvious reasons, but also because I was thinking it would've been a brilliant bluff if she'd been a secret normal seer and she would've claimed to be a secret limited seer. Oh well.

Originally Posted by Brinn

It was a mistake to lynch Nienna, she was the easy lynch, the most obvious suspect usually turns out innocent, blah, blah, blah.

I (obviously) agree it was a mistake, but really, Sally was much more like "the obvious suspect" of the Day than her if you ask me. Speaking of which, I'm still quite torn about Sally. She's weird.

Nogrod's replies to Mac are weird, but then again, Mac is weird himself. Gar. Actually, if I have time, I would like to have a look at those two. They're been playing nice quite easily and they give me bad vibes every now and then but then I forget about it always... I think they merit a closer look.

Originally Posted by Mac

The reason for suspecting you (at least for me) is mostly your horrible voting record (yesterDay it was just sketchy, now it's pretty evil).

Yes, the voting record, and your general manner, popping in just for a while and using at least 50% of your energy to defending yourself. This Day has been much better, though; I liked your summary. But I still suspect you.

*needs to think about various stuff*

[Bes]

I'm having trouble coming up with anything like a decent counter to the arguments that favor voting Pitch today. As has been stated by others, if Pitch isn't a wolf, then Lottie will get lynched tomorrow and that's still a wolf down (probably). If Pitch is a wolf, apologies and thanks are in order, if only on my part, to Lottie. We lose Pitch, of course, and that's sad if he's innocent, but apparently how the game is played. Sorry Pitch.

++Pitchwife

[satansaloser2005]

....

So many things look wrong with that post right there. *scratches head* Odd.


Anyway I think I'll go have a look at Bes. Not feeling the greatest today so I may be around for the rest of the Day if I don't feel like heading out to church and sundry. But for now, Bes!

[Bes]

I love how literally anything anyone here does or does not do lately makes them more suspicious.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

=> representation doesn't really do justice to me. Mac's and Nog's behaviour changed a bit, so I notified it, but it doesn't mean I changed my mind about them. And I certainly was still suspicious of Mnemo, just slightly worried because so many others were feeling (or "feeling") the same way.

So when other people started feeling the same way, you backed off. I'm sorry, but that's the way you're coming off to me...

EDIT: xed with Bes

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Bes

I'm having trouble coming up with anything like a decent counter to the arguments that favor voting Pitch today. As has been stated by others, if Pitch isn't a wolf, then Lottie will get lynched tomorrow and that's still a wolf down (probably). If Pitch is a wolf, apologies and thanks are in order, if only on my part, to Lottie. We lose Pitch, of course, and that's sad if he's innocent, but apparently how the game is played. Sorry Pitch.

++Pitchwife

This post does look very strange.

Originally Posted by Bes

I love how literally anything anyone here does or does not do lately makes them more suspicious.

Only the suspicious (or strange...) things.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Shasta

It bothers me that so many people (Mac, Sally, Lommy, Brinn) think I look so bad, without actually saying why. Reasons, please?

I believe I did explain my suspicions yesterDay. And then your actions at the end of the Day looks awfully sinister which is why I'm even more worried about you.

Originally Posted by Sally

You know, I'm wondering how likely it is that Shasta is a wolf, or at least a really clever one. He could have left Nienna to die since she reached the tie number first, but he voted for her anyway. If I was a wolf in his position I'd have just let nature take its course but he didn't. Had anyone not voted at the end of the Day that might have posed a threat to a Wilwolf packmate?

Shasta was present and posting at the end of the Day before the tie occurred. If he had abstained from voting, people would've questioned it. Sure he could've said he lost track of time or something, but that would've been unsporty. So I don't think the fact that he voted at all gives any indication towards what his role may be.

Originally Posted by Loslote

If it helps, Legate called the role the ,,birthday dreamer'' (with the funny commas and everything) and I was forbidden to reveal on Day 1.

Hmm...I've heard of that role before from way back in the early days of WW. I can't recall ever seeing that role used in a game since I started playing, so I think it's been years since it's been used.

[Pitchwife]

About sally's Hunter plan - nice idea, in a way. If you'd keep me alive long enough, I might even try to talk myself out of the noose. On the other hand, if you mislynch the Hunter in the meantime and they just happen to have none of the real wolves on their list at the time, I'd still die.
The obvious drawback is that as long as both Lottie and I remain alive, you won't be able to trust either of us (not that you can trust Lottie anyway), so you'll have to disregard everything I say. Talking to the walls of my prison cell while being pointedly ignored by the outside world would become pretty tedious after a while.

No, the logical way to proceed is quite simple. When a Seer reveals and names a wolf, you lynch the named person (unless there's a believable counter-reveal). When it turns out the Seer was lying, you lynch the Seer. Everything else is just confusing yourself and complicating your work.

And as a matter of personal taste, I prefer the noose (or the spoon) to going to jail. So, for the furthering of science and progress,
++Pitchwife

[Thinlómien]

Analysing everybody but myself, Loslote and Pitchspoon, partly based on my own research and partly on summaries by others...

Boromir88
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: very low
interactions with Mnemo: hardly any interaction
interactions with Pitch: very little interaction to point to any direction
voting record: Day1 no vote, Day2 Inzil, Day3 Wilwa
conclusion: his slight interaction with the wolves don't point at any direction, it could be avoiding interaction or just random. His voting record could be suspected - on the two first Days it's pretty terrible and whatever Mac says, him starting the Wilwa-wagon yesterDay doesn't make him look particularily innocent. If Wilwa is a wolf, of course, then it's different, but I'm not making that assumption (yet). Anyway, his general manner seems to me very innocent, so his slightly questionable voting record (especially as he has aknowledged it himself) or the lack of interaction with known wolves (especially as that doesn't even suggest anything per se) doesn't sway it. Far more innocent than guilty, but if he keeps doing bad stuff, I might have to reconsider.

Eomer of the Rohirrim
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: medium
interactions with Mnemo: granted, he put her on the lead with votes on Day1, but all his suspicions could've been wolf-on-wolf, she was good with him
interactions with Pitch: Eomer wavers on Pitch until puts him into the innocent category because of his interactions with Mnemo and then he stays there
voting record: Day1 Mnemo, Day2 Mnemo, Day3 Sally
conclusions: I'm quite torn about his interactions with the known wolves. It would all be quite bold (pursuing another fellow and declaring another innocent), but the problem is that Eomer is capable of that. His voting record looks quite good, but then again it is not too good to exclude him from wolvery. He's definitely still on my suspect list, but I think I'm going to drop aggressiveness against him for now because there's nothing really incriminating in his posts.

Morsul
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: very low
interactions with Mnemo: looks slightly as if Mnemo could've been casting some shoddy wolf-on-wolf suspicion on him
interactions with Pitch: some buddiness (but is that merely because they started wwing at the same time?)
voting record: Day1 Mac, Day2 Loslote, Day3 Morsul
conclusion: now this is interesting... Morsul's interactions with the wolves look a bit bad and his voting record wavers between good and bad. The Day2 vote was quite fishy, but I'm not sure a wolf-Morsul would vote himself... It's tough, I don't suspect him really but he's definitely fallen from the "tsut tsut innocent baby" category to somewhere lower...

Brinn
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: high
interactions with Mnemo: almost nothing
interactions with Pitch: hardly anything, except that Pitch flip-flopped on Brinn's innocence
voting record: Day1 Nerwen, Day2 Loslote, Day3 Sally
conclusion: her interactions with the wolves could be interpreted either way. Combined with her not-so-good-looking voting record, it really makes me wonder. It is notable what Mac wondered about her votes. She's really now near the top of my suspicion list if not there, her manner has been kind of disturbing all the time and all this evidence is not making her look any more innocent. (And I can totally see a wolf Brinn protecting an innocent Nienna.)

Nogrod
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: medium
interactions with Mnemo: she seems to trust him, he doesn't trust her
interactions with Pitch: goes with the popular trend of suspecting Pitch and then letting go of it
voting record: Day1 Roa, Day2 Mnemo, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: his interactions with the wolves don't really tell us much: they seem both innocent and lupine at the same time. I still don't like his frenzy-attack on Roa on Day1 and his vote for Mnemo didn't matter. Also if at least one of Sally&Wilwa is a wolf, he definitely bears watching. For now, I wouldn't be too aggressively for bashing him, but I'm definitely watching him.

Macalaure
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: high
interactions with Mnemo: not much, but slightly positive
interactions with Pitch: Mac flip-flops on Pitch in an eyebrow-raising manner, but Pitch gave him the third vote on Day1
voting record: Day1 Inzil, Day2 Mnemo, Day3 Wilwa
conclusion: ok, I think I'm dropping my suspicions of him for now. Giving Mnemo the fourth vote on Day2 and Pitch trying to get him lynched speak for his innocence quite clearly, whatever fishiness there is here or there.

sally
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: medium
interactions with Mnemo: rather fishy friendliness and banter (although as we all know they are RL friends)
interactions with Pitch: slight suspicion from her towards him, he votes her on Day3
voting record: Day1 Roa, Day2 Lottie, Day3 Wilwa
conclusion: if there wasn't Pitch's vote for Sally (like Mac said he could've voted Nienna based on what he had said before), I would be very very worried of Sally - trying to save Mnemo and having wolf-on-wolf like suspicions of Pitch - but now I guess I have to consider her quite innocent.

Nerwen
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: low
interactions with Mnemo: she did make a case against her
interactions with Pitch: she considered him innocent based on Mnemo's guilt
voting record: Day1 Mac (didn't count), Day2 Mnemo, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: her consistent suspicion against Mnemo looks good, exonerating Pitch based on that doesn't (although half of the village did that). Looks more innocent than guilty, but I don't like it that people take her innocence for granted.

Bes
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: very low
interactions with Mnemo: not much
interactions with Pitch: some mutual suspicion
voting record: Day1 Mac, Day2 no vote, Day3 Lottie
conclusion: well, this doesn't sway my opinion to any direction. Generally he seems so confused that if he's a wolf I think he's fellows would've already helped him out and clarified the rules for him.

Shasta
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: high
interactions with Mnemo: he defended her
interactions with Pitch: not much except some late-emergent suspicion against him on Day3
voting record: Day1 Inzil, Day2 Nerwen, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: it really looks quite bad, but possibly too bad to be bad.

wilwa
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: high
interactions with Mnemo: Wilwa defended Mnemo when the situation was really open
interactions with Pitch: she almost voted him but sticked to her suspicion of Boro
voting record: Day1 no vote, Day2 Boro, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: I can totally understand why people suspect her, it indeed looks quite bad. The only problem with suspecting her is the same that I have with suspecting Shasta: it looks too obvious.

So...

innocent
Bes
Mac

innocentish
Boro
Nerwen
Sally

in the middle
Eomer
Morsul
Nogrod

suspiciousish
- (interesting...)

suspicious
Brinn
Wilwa
Shasta


edit: xed with the five last posts

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Loslote

So when other people started feeling the same way, you backed off. I'm sorry, but that's the way you're coming off to me...

I didn't back off, but I started to doubt. That's true and I don't deny it. However, if I had been a wolf who didn't want to sacrifice a fellow Mnemo, I would've been awfully short-sighted to give her the second vote early on and suspect her relatively loudly and then start having vague doubts and turning my boat later... It's really just what I said: it doesn't bode well if the village agress too much about lynching somebody because then it means there's no one who wants him/her to live ie probably no fellow wolves ergo s/he's probably innocent. I'm glad that wasn't the case with the Mnemo suspicion, but it looked like that at that point.

[satansaloser2005]

Sorry about disappearing; my internet died.

Anyway, I'm very confused. Every time I think I've pinned down the pack(tm) I see someone else who looks suspicious to me. Gah!

My list at the moment. Sorry if it's not very well-defined.

Guilty
Pitch

Very suspicious
Wilwa
Shasta

Suspicious
Lommie (bordering on the very suspicious, but I kept my above list to two people....she's interchangable with the other two but that's how I'm feeling now)
Brinn (also very close to the above list, but not enough to be at the top)
Bes (but I'm willing to accept that it's just because he's new)

A bit suspicious
Boro (because of how he flipped on me so hard....other than that just hunching)
Morsul (Meh....I'm not comfortable with his Nilp move....could have been to make sure we wouldn't kill him, but I don't know)

Could go either way (meaning I need to look at them because I can't decide)
Nerwen
Eomer
Nog
Mac

Innocent
Lottie
Sally


I think a big problem with this list is that I had to keep looking at it in order to make sure I had everyone. Which means I'm ignoring people. I hate that.