WW: LXXXIV - Middle Earth in Fifteen Minutes

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

This is enjoyable to watch. That is all.

*shakes fist on behalf of everyone*

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

If so, for that matter, should we "vote" whom we'd like to see Hunted, or something like that? If even just for the record...

If you like. I can't promise that I'll listen, but I'll think about maybe paying attention to what you guys think.

EDIT: xed with Eomer and I'll probably disappear for another couple of hours.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

.If so, for that matter, should we "vote" whom we'd like to see Hunted, or something like that? If even just for the record...

EDIT: x-ed more or less since my last

This sounds great. That way, we use the hunter idea to get the heir out of the way, but also get a semi-normal "vote" in which we can actually go for a wolf.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

++loslote

[Nogrod]

Shasta. I need to go to sleep in a short time. So if you are online, please answer this.

If the heir would die before she got a chance to acquire a new role would she have been reported to have died as an ordo or as the heir?

That would be quite important information indeed.

If there is a chance the heir is dead we might just go back to wolf-hunting and cut the crap. If there isn't a chance for that we're totally stuck.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It depends on what your working hypotheses about the best course of action for toDay is and thus are you

a) an ordo willing to throw the ball back to the wolves
b) a gifted willing to get lynched as to secure us the heir
c) a wolf willing to give the impression of either a or b to secure the heir to the dark side

The fact that you do it that way more or less cancels the options a and b to me.

Hmm, care to explain why?

[Thinlómien]

Wilwa - quiet, and nicely under the radar.
Lottie - is most probably <3
Boro - see what I said earlier. My top suspect atm.
Elronhubbard - slightly weird, touchy and making kind of eyebrow-raising choices. Then again, didn't we all do that first time? Difficult.
Eomer - kind of like him and his logic. I tend to suspect him too easily so for now I'm just ignoring his style.
Greenie - mostly seems like her busy and uninvolved ordo self who nevertheless brings up good points.
Inzil - seems more reliable toDay, and not only because I agreed with him about the hunter issue.
Nogrod - slightly difficult to read. I wonder if he's evil or if we just disagree. Wondering if he'd known that any ordo can be the heir if he was one himself.
Legate - difficult again. Leaning innocent, but also kind of under the radar.
Nessa - umm... no idea to be honest.

So, if I had to guess: the wolves are Boro, Nog and Nessa.

+ Boro for hunter pick

++ LOTTIE

I'm googling a few things for tomorrow's exam (the downsides of making brief notes with just noting down the terminology) and brush my teeth so I'll be keeping an eye on this thread for a moment, but then I'm off to bed. Have to wake up tomorrow!


edit: xed with everyone on this page and maybe more

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Wilwa - sweet and innocent, seemingly designed to trick me
Lottie - willing to believe she's our hunter
Boro - very hard to tell due to lack of time - I give a pass for now
Elronhubbard - she seems fishy but it's all mysterious with her
Greenie - I always think she's evil but I guess it's possible she's not a wolf
Inzil - yeah, um, tricksssy... I'll let the Hunter decide on him
Nogrod - I've played with Nogrod many times, and he seems innocent to me
Lommy - I've played with Lommy many times and I always want to kill her
Legate - really unsure about him, could go either way
Nessa - I think she could be evil and wolvish



Sorry about that, but I often like to leave a list before bed.

[Thinlómien]

Nog, Shasta is not online. I asked him to be on the visible mode so we can contact him better if needs be - that's something I prefer mods to do - and he apparently did so for his profile says he was last active some 40 minutes ago.

edit: xed with Eomer

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

If you like. I can't promise that I'll listen, but I'll think about maybe paying attention to what you guys think.

Of course, the point was mainly to get a bit of "record". Of course, we cannot give it a 100% credibility, people can outright lie, but still, it is at least more information - better than nothing.

As for me, right now I'd probably go for Nog - but let's see still for a short while. I am going to go to sleep soon-ish, in fact I can do it just as soon as I cast my vote, but I'd like to see at least reply from Nog if that's possible...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Okay, good luck village! It's been a most enjoyable night of Werewolf: cheers Shasta.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Answer your question?

No. If I was a wolf who actually read the speculation we went through the last few hours I would have claimed to be the hunter. More or less nothing to lose for the wolves but lots to gain.

And you others... you just go for that, just that easily? Isn't that what a wolf would love to do?

I mean she can be the hunter, but this one-minded agreement scares me a lot.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

No. If I was a wolf who actually read the speculation we went through the last few hours I would have claimed to be the hunter. More or less nothing to lose for the wolves but lots to gain.

And you others... you just go for that, just that easily? Isn't that what a wolf would love to do?

I mean she can be the hunter, but this one-minded agreement scares me a lot.

Well it's not at least that I'd completely trust her, but I figure that if she is not the Hunter, it will show by that she does not take anybody with her, no? I think that was one thing there. But in any case, at least for now there is no counter-claim... at least for myself (and I think Europeans in general), I am not going to wait for it (not to speak of that it could've been Greenie or somebody who's away...)

It will remain to be seen in the future whether it was a good choice...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Hmm, care to explain why?

Because the wolves have all to gain from a revealment. Read back what we discussed the last two hours or so.

Revealments are a no-no because we don't know what's the result - with the case of the hunter we'll know the result, but the milk has been spilt already by then when we know if we get it wrong.

A wise wolf would take the initiative in this kind of case as the probability with conflicting revelations seems to favour the one who revealed first.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well it's not at least that I'd completely trust her, but I figure that if she is not the Hunter, it will show by that she does not take anybody with her, no?

Yes it will, and the wolves will have bagged the heir in the worst scenario as well...

It will remain to be seen in the future whether it was a good choice...

A good choice for who?

[Thinlómien]

Nog, seriously, what does a wolf gain from fake-revealing as the hunter? We know they were a wolf, so we get clues. Yes, they get the heir, but given that we cannot really play so that our first aim is not to let them have him (otherwise we'd just be lynching ordos) the chance is rather big anyway.


xed with Leg and Nog

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Because the wolves have all to gain from a revealment. Read back what we discussed the last two hours or so.

Revealments are a no-no because we don't know what's the result - with the case of the hunter we'll know the result, but the milk has been spilt already by then when we know if we get it wrong.

A wise wolf would take the initiative in this kind of case as the probability with conflicting revelations seems to favour the one who revealed first.

Well, as unpredictable as revealments are, in this case, we can get either wolves or the hunter revealing, because the others would have the sense not to, and the kill the hunter gets gives us some stable info as to their role and gets the heir out of the equation and on our side.

I'm all for a hunter-reveal.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Because the wolves have all to gain from a revealment. Read back what we discussed the last two hours or so.

Revealments are a no-no because we don't know what's the result - with the case of the hunter we'll know the result, but the milk has been spilt already by then when we know if we get it wrong.

A wise wolf would take the initiative in this kind of case as the probability with conflicting revelations seems to favour the one who revealed first.

Okay, point taken... but what better thing can we do right now anyway, once she has revealed? Wait for the next Day if there isn't a counter-claim?

Also, I must say, there is one reason why I'd be inclined to think she is not a Wolf, because (with all respect, Lottie ), in the scenario you outline, do you think she would be the "initiative-Wolf"?

EDIT: x-ed since the quoted

[Thinlómien]

Now that I'm certain what "historicism" means and who Juhani Suomi is, I'm off to sleep. My exam starts in nine hours.

Good luck Lottie!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nog, seriously, what does a wolf gain from fake-revealing as the hunter? We know they were a wolf, so we get clues.

If she manages to get the real hunter to reveal it's a mess. But yes, you're right. If she's a wolf and the real hunter stays low now we'll have something. The wolves would gain a lot more by revealing as some other role, that's actually true.

But they get the heir. That's something as well. A new wolf is the hardest to track and we lose our chance of getting the one. If that one is alive in the first place...

Okay, I don't like this at all and I need to go to sleep. I'll relocate and hopefully vote then.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I wouldn't be that cruel. If the Heir had already died I'd have said something (and it wouldn't have been a nice-sounding something, either, if you'd taken out my special role!).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, fine, here we go...

++Lottie

*crosses fingers*

Good Night, folks.

[elronds_daughter]

Hrmmm. This heir business is incredibly confusing.

I suppose I don't see much harm in the hunter-reveal, even if Lottie's is fake. If she's the hunter, we'll know, and odds seem fairly good that she'd get a wolf on her way out, and then we can resume playing as usual, with all this heir stuff over and done with. If she's a wolf, we'll know it and start playing with a more normal mentality (if this can ever be called "normal"), albeit at a disadvantage.

Either way, though, the heir will be out of the way and everyone's confusion will lessen considerably (mine probably most of all).

Right. Much to think about before I vote. Hopefully Supreme Overlord Shasta will be around soon to answer the questions directed his way...I would rather not vote without the answers.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I wouldn't be that cruel. If the Heir had already died I'd have said something.

Thanks for the info. Allright. We're deep in trouble.

- We don't want to lynch an ordo as the numbers are dwindling fast.
- We don't want to lynch a wolf as it would only give them a new one we had no take on thus far and we'd be unsure whether we lynched a wolf or not and thus couldn't basically read anything from the death.
- In terms of numbers we'd like to kill a gifted, but the lack of knowledge on the dead would give us little else (ie. something to deduce from). Unless it is the hunter we kill, but that way we risk 2/3 chance of killing one more innocent (or gifted) with the same blow.

So who should we lynch? All the options look bad.

If there were reasons to believe the heir is already dead I would have gone for the wolves whatever the consequences, just out of pure frustration.

But now Lottie-option is starting to look like the only one available (unless there is a competing revealment). If she's a wolf, that's masterly played.

As I need to leave this early, I would have liked to leave another option for those who vote after me, if there'd be some new evidence, but as she seems to have already 5 votes out of 11 possible, and one for Lommy and another for Eomer it looks like a done deal. *blah*

Well as it is so, I'll vote for a wolf then (with the working hypothesis that Lottie is lynched and is either the hunter or a wolf).

Eomer is up to no good.

Lommy's going for Boro bothers me.

Legate's detachment bothers me.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I suppose Lottie's the big choice... I REALLY wonder what she meant, but..

++Lottie

She did ask for it.

[elronds_daughter]

Nog, I'm starting to see your point about all this blind agreement...

[Nogrod]

Writing of the previous post took me over half an hour (at this time of night) as my computer seems to just get jammed, jammed, jammed, jammed...

So without further ado.

++ Eomer

He's most probably a wolf and ripe for taking with you Lottie - had you powers for that. You'll find the reason from the thread (not from me though) if you just read closely enough.


On another note. If I'm not around toMorrow, do remember that those with confident understanding of the game-mechanics are more likely those who have gone through different options together. My learning curve toDay is a prime example of what happens when one just plunges in and starts to think in situ.


Okay. I hope Lottie is the hunter and picks well.

I fear she is the hunter and picks badly - and I have a nagging feeling she could be a wolf from a bold bunch (see killing Sally last Night and "throwing the ball back to us").

Well, nothing to be done about that now.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I fear she is the hunter and picks badly - and I have a nagging feeling she could be a wolf from a bold bunch (see killing Sally last Night and "throwing the ball back to us").

Hmm, I don't see that likely being the case (her being a wolf), the wolves really wouldn't have all that much to gain by doing that. Yeah, they get the Heir, but then the village would know right away that Lottie wasn't the real hunter, so we'd look at her posts tomorrow and maybe be able to narrow down her mates, and we'd still have all 3 of our original Gifteds. Atleast with lynching the Hunter the wolves can hope that another innocent is taken down with them, but if the Hunter is left up for them to kill then they are the only one's at risk.

Plus, I would think if she was lying the real Hunter would have come forward and said something by now, so that they could be sure to be the one lynched instead of the fake one (gosh, that is a weird thing to say, wanting to lynch the real Hunter instead of the known wolf ). Actually, that's another reason Lottie is likely not a wolf. The real Hunter could have easily come forward, been lynched instead, and taken her down with him (giving the Heir to the village, and accomplishing nothing positive for the wolves).

So basically I still think this was a good idea. We just hope Lottie is lucky enough to take a wolf, and then we get the Heir (so we still have all of our Gifteds), then tomorrow we can just start playing like usual.

I don't think I'll be able to come on again, I am so sorry at my awful participation, hopefully Day 3 will be better for me.


++Lottie

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But now Lottie-option is starting to look like the only one available (unless there is a competing revealment). If she's a wolf, that's masterly played.

...

Well as it is so, I'll vote for a wolf then (with the working hypothesis that Lottie is lynched and is either the hunter or a wolf).

If you think I'm a wolf, why did you vote for someone you thought was a wolf? Clearly, if your other option is to wolf-hunt, wolf-hunt the person you've repeated claimed to think is a wolf - me, and if I turn out to be the Hunter, yay, if I turn out to be a wolf, you've still done what you said you would do - wolf hunt.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I suppose Lottie's the big choice... I REALLY wonder what she meant, but..

I meant I was the Hunter, Ness.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Loslote

If you think I'm a wolf, why did you vote for someone you thought was a wolf? Clearly, if your other option is to wolf-hunt, wolf-hunt the person you've repeated claimed to think is a wolf - me, and if I turn out to be the Hunter, yay, if I turn out to be a wolf, you've still done what you said you would do - wolf hunt.



I meant I was the Hunter, Ness.

Clever, you

[Loslote]

Aren't you going to miss me?

[Loslote]

Also, I hunted Zil last Night, and I'm hunting Nog toDay.

Adieu, ma ville!

[elronds_daughter]

Well, it seems there's nothing can be done about it now.

++ Lottie

for lack of any better ideas.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Deadline, since I have things I Need to do and no one's changing their votes, I'm sure. You lynched Lottie. Now, I can't reveal her role for whatever reason, but Nogrod also died and he was an ordo.

Night 3 begins.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm sorry for the delay. I've been trying to load this page since Night ended.

To compensate, I'll just tell you that Aragorn smacked the wolves on the noses with a rolled up newspaper when they tried to kill someone.

Day 3 begins.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

That does not surprise me.

Westu, Aragorn, hal!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hey, so at least something positive! I guess we could sort of take it the way that this compensates well for the loss of Nog yesterDay. Still, I think whatever the outcome of yesterDay's lynch was, at least we got the business with the Heir done. Now we still need to catch our first Wolf, but now at least we can start playing "properly", like not thinking about whether or not to lynch Wolves or whatnot...

As for the Aragorn-action, definitely it bought us more time. Whether it was a coincidence or not that somebody was targeted and protected, I think might be shown, but after reading this and the last bit of yesterDay, I actually have a certain suspicion now.

In any case, I hope toDay is going to be successful - we definitely should not go to any kind of inactivity, quite the opposite, as now we finally can do something. I am going to review some things and will be around from time to time during the day...

EDIT: x-ed with Eomer

[A Little Green]

A total of two posts this far? Are you kidding me? Anyway, I have really limited time toDay - I'll have to be gone for good in an hour, which sucks. I might be back before DL but can't be sure so I'm going to vote super-early to be on the safe side.

I'll read the end of yesterDay again now to get some proper idea of what happened - I've skimmed it but that's all - but one thing first. Well, two. No, three, actually. First, yay for the Hunter thing working (but not yay for Nog being an ordo). Second, yay for the Ranger! Third, sorry, Eomer, for voting for you twice in a row with terrible reasons, I was pretty sure you were the Hunter. Well, obviously I was wrong.

[A Little Green]

Wilwa - Good vibes from the little I've seen.
Boro - Hmm. I'd like a closer look if I have time, there's a vague nagging something I can't put my finger on.
Elronhubbard - Could go either way. Maybe leaning good, though I'm not at all sure.
Eomer - Leaning good.
Legate - I agree with whoever it was who said there's something off about his list. He's being fishy. He's always kind of wishy-washy, but it looks calculated this time. Another I'd take a closer look at if I had the time.
Inzil - Sneaky as ever, I have no idea.
Lommy - Good vibes from her too.
Nessa - I'm uneasy with her. She's the third I would like a closer look at.

So if I had to hazard a guess at who our three villains are, I'd say Legate, Nessa and Boro - but knowing the general accuracy of my guesses I'm probably wrong about at least one and probably two. I'm not surprised if Zil and/or Hubbard are wolves. However, if the wolves are Wilwa, Eomer and Lommy, I'm going to eat my hat.

[A Little Green]

Right, I had a quick look at Boro - with only five posts from him it didn't take that much time. He's busy, obviously, which might explain a lot. He votes Nessa on Day 1, not based on any valid reason I can detect. Quite a lot of people voted randomly that Day, but I still don't like it. Day 2 he votes Lommy based on an argument about her pointing out the silliness of voting Nerwen being fishy. He had suspected Lommy already on Day 1 because her RL conversation with me (that she related in her first post) had a fishy tone.

So? I was about to write "could be wolf, could be innocent" but realised that's a bit Captain Obvious-y.. His consistence on Lommy looks odd - the way he suspects her for something on Day 1 and a completely different thing the next. Brings me in mind of a wolf who has decided on a suspect and tries to be consistent with it. It's kind of weird that pretty much the only one he suspects is Lommy, and both times based on a different detail. Then again, it could also be that he's innocent, and the Day 1 suspicion guided him to read the next thing she said as wolvish as well? Argh.

I think my conclusion will be "leaning bad". I wish I had time to look at Leggy or Nessa, I think I'll try if there's still no one around when I post this..