Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously - Page 10 - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Glirdan · 02-13-2006, 05:13 PM

Well, even though Malka's death is tragic (our poor, beloved Seer is gone), we all did make some extra cash (

).

As for SpM's suggested double lynching plan, I'm all for it because it then gives me a 50:50 chance of finding the Wolf if we don't get him/her toDay. As he said, all are equally suspicious, yet I find that Kath and Gil are probably the two we really ought to look at toDay. Those two have been in suspcion but not enough to cause to much trouble, which would complete (I believe) Marcolie's plan: quiet:Naria; loud:TGWBS and in between: Gil or Kath. However, that does not mean we need to wholly forget Garin and Spawn. I believe that Garin is either being a very smart Wolf by being extremely loud or just a very innocent villager. Spawn, on the other had, has flown under everyone's radar and hasn't attracted much suspicion until yesterDay. So, what do we do?

Gil-Galad · 02-13-2006, 05:21 PM

its probably going to be a double-lynch between me and Kath, i'm surprised i've lasted this far... my onl fault was that i didn't read Malka's post... i made an error on my part though

**The Saucepan Man** · 02-13-2006, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glirdan

So, what do we do?

I suggest we wait and see how many agree with the double lynch plan. It needs pretty much unanimous consent (or at least an overwhelming majority) to succeed. Then we can work out who we should go for today out of the four unkowns. I have my own views, but I will not air them until all (or almost all) have said whether they are in favour of a double lynch and we have agreed, at least in outline terms, how we will do it.

I might add, Glirdan, that if we are to go for the double lynch, you will have the key role. As the only person we can fully trust, we will need you to hold your vote to the very end to ensure no Wolf/Cobbler chicanery (or to unilaterally lynch whoever might be the cause of such chicanery).

If anyone isn't going to be able to vote reasonably early today, they should say so.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

my onl fault was that i didn't read Malka's post...

Just how much did you read?

Gil-Galad · 02-13-2006, 05:43 PM

well apaprently Malka was seer... i wasn't too sure on who she dreamed of... when i re read after voting, i saw that guy was voted wolf and you were innocent...

**The Saucepan Man** · 02-13-2006, 05:49 PM

Of course, time zones might create a problem. Some may have to vote before all have arrived and said whether they agree with the plan. That makes things difficult. But it can still work.

My idea is as follows:

Two known innocents and two unknowns vote for one candidate.

The other two known innocents and the other two unknowns vote for the other candidate.

Glirdan holds his vote to the end and, if all goes according to plan, doesn't vote. If anyone hasn't voted by that stage, he uses his discretion to ensure the best possible result. Would that be feasible for you Glirdan?

Any thoughts? Is there any better way of doing it?

Glirdan · 02-13-2006, 05:50 PM

Saucy, I can not hold my vote until the very end. I will not have a chance to come back on. I might not be able to vote at all. I will try my best to vote, but (due to time zone restrictions, school, band and parents) I may not be able to. So, if I cast my vote, it will be for one of the two that I voiced major suspicion of earlier (Gil or Kath).

Edit- Cross posted with Saucy.

In answer, that seems like a fine plan because then, you might not need my vote unless it comes to a worst case scenario.

Here's a side-note about Form. If he tries to make us not double lynch, it's safe to say he's the Cobbler. I also suggest that we should wait for him to vote if possible.

Gil-Galad · 02-13-2006, 05:50 PM

yeah i probably won't be able to get on, so i'm voting now

++Kath

**The Saucepan Man** · 02-13-2006, 06:05 PM

Well, my plan is clearly not going to work.

I guess that we shall just have to see where we are towards the close of the day tomorrow. I shall try to hold my vote until near the end of the day, but I can't guarantee anything. And I guess you can't trust me 100% either.

OK, so who do I think we should lynch today? I stand by what I said towards the end of the day yesterday concerning the four unknowns (so go back and read my contributions here and here if you want to know).

The only thing that I would add is I think it more likely that Gil-Galad didn't bother to read much of what had been said before he voted yesterday, rather than his vote being some elaborate double-bluff. As such, I am inclined to view him, for now at least, as innocent (although still a possible Cobbler). If he is a Wolf, he deserves to win for being so convincingly naive ...

I also have a serious nagging doubt about spawn. While TGWBS went out of his way to put the case for Kath's innocence, he said very little about spawn. He only really mentioned her among groups of other people, for example when he expressed the view that none of those who voted for Abercrombie were likely to be Wolves. Now, we all know TGWBS to be a subtle and crafty Wolf. I tend to think that this would be more his style when trying to clear a fellow Wolf.

Plus the fact that spawn has never really attracted serious supicion still concerns me. We have been notably bad at catching Wolves in this village. We would probably never have suspected TGWBS had it not been for malkatoj. I can well imagine that the other Wolf has been equally as slippery. And dancing spawn is more than capable of carrying it off.

As matters stand, I would be inclined to lynch spawn and Kath.

Glirdan · 02-13-2006, 06:18 PM

Quote:

And I guess you can't trust me 100% either.

On the contrary my friend. I now trust you completely. I'm quite sorry for attacking you so ferociously at the beginning, but, that's what this is all about, right?

And I must also agree with you on the matter of Gil. I don't think that two Wolves would have been so quiet.

Now I must also say that Spawn and Kath are both unnerving me. They post enough, yet just barely enough to stay out of suspicion. I believe, just as you Saucy, that we should concentrate on these two. Garin is probably, as he ha been saying for quite some time now, just been framed by the Wolves. Gil is probably either the Cobbler or just a very confused villager.

So, what do we do from here?

Nilpaurion Felagund · 02-13-2006, 06:21 PM

I rather doubt you are the Cobbler, Sauce. So I think the last vote can be yours--if you can do a holding pattern 'til the end of the DAY, that is.

And yes, that means I agree with the double-lynch. I mean, crikey, I was the one who first suggested it!

So, is it Kath and spawn, then? I trust spawn to be innocent, if that helps.

Garin looks innocent to me, but I'm not very sure. Gil-galad is very confusing, and has succeeded in avoiding serious suspicion so far. Since most of us thought that the Werewolves's plan is to have the loudmouths kill off each other, I think he's a perfect Werewolf.

Glirdan, you really are the Hunter? I knew I still got it.

Nilpaurion Felagund · 02-13-2006, 06:33 PM

I just noticed that I am persistent in defending spawn. Does that make me the Cobbler?

**The Saucepan Man** · 02-13-2006, 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glirdan

So, what do we do from here?

Can you hold your vote until later in the day? That would be the best thing. If not, I suggest that you vote for spawn, to give Kath and spawn one vote each.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nilp

I rather doubt you are the Cobbler, Sauce.

The feeling is mutual, my dear fellow.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nilp

I just noticed that I am persistent in defending spawn. Does that make me the Cobbler?

So no, it doesn't. But do you have any particular reason (other than personal

) for believing spawn to be innocent? If so, please declare it as, while I am not convinced that she is a Wolf (I am not convinced about anyone), she is high in my suspicions at the moment, for the reasons that I have given.

Glirdan · 02-13-2006, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Can you hold your vote until later in the day? That would be the best thing. If not, I suggest that you vote for spawn, to give Kath and spawn one vote each.

I will try and hold off, but I may have to vote very soon. Don't worry though, I will take your advice and vote for spawn. I blieve that this plan of yours will actually work out my firend. I believe it will.

Nilp, I have not even come close to suspecting you. If anything, you've confused me this entire time. However, if anyone is the Cobbler, I don't think it's you. If it's anyone, I think it would be Form or Gil.

Now, I really wish someone else would say something other than us three. It's really unnerving me even though five of us are proven innocent.

mormegil · 02-13-2006, 07:13 PM

Sorry I've been very busy today. For what it's worth the double lynching idea makes sense to me and I think I will be able to vote late as it is a time that works fairly well for me. For my own opinion Kath is one that should go and possibly Gil. I just don't feel good about him and his vote yesterday, while explained, still seems odd enough.

mormegil · 02-13-2006, 07:20 PM

Sorry for the double but I just need to express that I'd still like to kill Form out of principle but I realize this is foolish and we shouldn't but I still want to.

**The Saucepan Man** · 02-13-2006, 07:38 PM

Morm, what are your thoughts generally on the four unknowns? I would like to hear your views on each of them, based on what has gone before, if you have the time. Why Kath? Do you think that Gil was bluffing? If not, why don't you feel good about him? What about spawn? Garin?

Sorry if it seems like I'm pressing you, but the more we share our opinions today the better chance we have of actually bagging a Wolf, rather than two innocents. So I would like to hear everyone's views on these matters if possible.

Nilpaurion Felagund · 02-13-2006, 07:39 PM

Quote:

But do you have any particular reason (other than personal

) for believing spawn to be innocent? If so, please declare it . . . (SpM)

Because she wouldn't lie to me.

(I hope . . . )

Enedwaith, about the Cobbler, if he's among the innocent, we don't care. If he somehow ends up in revealing himself, he's toast, we ignore him, but we don't have to kill him. If he or she is among the unknowns, he or she will die enedwaith, so why worry?

Yeah, the Cobbler can screw the voting up. So can the last Werewolf. But I think if they have the gall to do that toDAY, then woohoo! They're dead tomorrow!

Hey, vy ze vay, if Kath is the last Werewolf, how come we're getting kills? I mean, she's off in Iceland since the 10th, right?

**The Saucepan Man** · 02-13-2006, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nilp

Because she wouldn't lie to me.

Now surely you know her better than that ...

Am I to take it that this is your only reason for not suspecting spawn?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nilp

Hey, vy ze vay, if Kath is the last Werewolf, how come we're getting kills? I mean, she's off in Iceland since the 10th, right?

Good point, but she only said that she would be away for Day 5. And, even if she is away, I am sure that (if she is a Wolf) there are ways and means.

Glirdan · 02-13-2006, 08:07 PM

Well, I can't hold off any longer. I will cast my vote and it shall be for

++Spawn

Good luck my fellow friends. If neither of them end up being a Wolf, I will try my best to find the last on, even thought he/she'd be pretty stupid to do so. Good Day!!

Nilpaurion Felagund · 02-13-2006, 08:08 PM

I give up.

I'll vote for whoever you want me to vote. Even if it's *gulp* spawn.

So, tell me who I'll vote for. I'll be back in a few hours.

Vzv, Sauce, here is my comprehensive theory of her innocence. It works only for me, I think.

There are three possibilities for spawn

1. She's a Werewolf, and we get her DAY 1.
2. She's a Werewolf, and we don't get her DAY 1. She wins.
3. She's innocent, gets mistaken for a Seer, and killed by Werewolves NIGHT 4 or NIGHT 5.

Since she didn't fall under any of the given categories, I'm confused.

Quote:

Good point, but she only said that she would be away for Day 5. And, even if she is away, I am sure that (if she is a Wolf) there are ways and means. (SpM)

Well, she hasn't been posting of late.

And she told me in a PM that she'll be gone for more than a day.

Gil-galad is the one, I tells ye!

Garin · 02-13-2006, 08:13 PM

What a day I had and not one truffle. I think, I'll go into the bacon business thanks to these useless pigs.
I have to agree with Saucepan's math and go for the double lynching, It is normally something I oppose but this is a desparate time for the village, I am leaning Kath or maybe Gil or Spawn. Garin seems pretty cool. Without everone's cooperation this thing could backfire.
Obviously.
I'll just try to follow someone's lead.
Hey Nilp is Kath really not around, or was that sarcasm?

EDIT: I didn't like a comma

Nilpaurion Felagund · 02-13-2006, 08:24 PM

She really is gone. If I remember anything, she said she'll be back before her birthday (the 16th, if you would like to know--greet her, okay?)

Must go, French class is already starting! I'm late, I'm late!

Garin · 02-13-2006, 08:35 PM

Bon voyage, Nilp, and I must have cross-posted like mad because I once again got distracted by something else. You pretty much answered that already in a previous post.

Look! that dog has a fluffy tail!

Where was I? Why wouldn't Kath excuse herself from the game if she was not going to a viable member of the village for a prolonged period? That is more of a rhetorical question and not directed at Nilp.

mormegil · 02-13-2006, 08:41 PM

SpM, in answer to your questions.

1. Kath has been moderately suspicious and I thought she may have been the Hunter because of the way she treated Cailin. She defended her correct? I know TGWBS did. She wasn't around yesterday, though it seems that was known and I must admit that was on of the bigger reasons I suspected her though since we already have a vote for her it might make sense to continue.

2. Gil is...well Gil and I don't ever fully understand him. He may be trying a bluff but we won't know until he's gone. Plus we're more likely to get actual incriminating evidence from Spawn or Garin

Between Garin and Spawn I'm at a bit of a toss up so I'll cross that bridge when I get to it.

Formendacil · 02-13-2006, 09:32 PM

Interesting day...

Here I am, after a hard (well, for a lazy guy like me...) day's work, and I'm catching up on all of the Day's events... I'd almost like to go for the Double-Lynch. Morm and me! What do you say?

Oh, yeah... I don't want to die, and we're both on the "Definitely Not Werewolves" list, so even if we're Shirriff Cobblers, we don't get to die...

So, of those who ARE on the "Not Definitely Not Werewolves" list we have:

Spawn,
Kath,
Garin,
Gil-Galad

Of these four, I'm tempted to cross Garin off right away. I'd also like to cross Kath off. I don't know why. Somehow, they just seem.... I don't know... not into this game deeply enough....

Spawn definitely has the right profile for it. Relatively noisy, not intrusively so, lots of good analysis, seemingly helpful. We know she's smart enough for it. We know she's got the experience. The only question is: is she?

And... strange though it seems to be for me to say it, I have to wonder if Gil-galad might not be the Werewolf. Time and time again, villages lynch him because he's confusing, or ignore him because he's confusing, and time and time again he's innocent. What if this is the time when he actually is a Werewolf- and we were all too confident in the "Gil could never be a Werewolf" attitude to think it...

All in all, I think Spawn the best candidate for today, but forgive me! I cannot shake the idea of Gil as the dark horse candidate we've all been ignoring.

Nilpaurion Felagund · 02-14-2006, 12:09 AM

Votes:

Kath - 1 (Gil-galad)
spawn - 1 (Glirdan)

I will not vote for spawn toDAY. So, sorry, Kath

++Kath

Garin · 02-14-2006, 12:50 AM

I still think the double-lynch is a good idea but I need to make a vote sooner than later. I am surprised at Mormegil's comments but I can understand the extra stress as master smith to all of those bothersome apprentices. I will likely follow Sauce's lead but I don't want to make the clinching vote due to my status. One of us four is a wolf...
Spawn's posts have been concise but well-thought. Mostly non-incriminating, but that in itself could be incriminating.
Gil hasn't said much except the occassional poking in for a couple sentences and a quick vote. He seems purposely mysterious. Or maybe just apathetic because he is an ordo?
Kath- Well, if she is not participating she best be removed because she offers the village nothing. She will likely get my vote, but right now I want to want to wait. This might be my day's lengthiest passage. For I must truffle hunt in the morn' (My time) and will have little time to say much and should probably be sleeping already. I still think the double lynch is a good idea but if we have to lose someone it should be the non-participant.
Garin- Needs to start working-out again because he is letting himself go to pot.
Form- Mormegil has it out for him and I think the fact that Form hasn't attacked me is making Mormy suspect me. Well, this is too political for me.
I only mention Form because he has been brought up as a vote.
If I survive the day I promise we will feast on my fattest pig. Sorry, there's no truffle gravy but it seems this land is cursed.
Perhaps, you noticed.

Formendacil · 02-14-2006, 01:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garin

Form- Mormegil has it out for him and I think the fact that Form hasn't attacked me is making Mormy suspect me. Well, this is too political for me.
I only mention Form because he has been brought up as a vote.
If I survive the day I promise we will feast on my fattest pig. Sorry, there's no truffle gravy but it seems this land is cursed.
Perhaps, you noticed.

Dear me, how totally uncivil I have been... not suspecting you? Really, Garin, that is most inconsiderate of me...

How's this:

You are a filthy pig-farmer by occupation, and you're a dirty Werewolf by night. I wouldn't be surprised if those pigs of yours have had a fine feast on your victims at night! Watch out for Mad Pig Disease, if they have. Seriously, you are so evil, Sauron himself looks like Neville Longbottom.

That better?

Wouldn't want you to feel like I was no suspecting you...

dancing spawn of ungoliant · 02-14-2006, 01:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sauce

Now surely you know her better than that ...

Outrageous! (

) But Nilp is right, I wouldn't lie to him.

Well, well, according to Sauce, I've been acting like a good innocent should and that's why I'm now suspected to be a wolf? I guess it makes as much sense as anything here on the last Days. Besides, I myself have been wrong with my accusations so many times that I can't really blame you who think that I'm a wolf.

Anyway, I think a double lynching is a good idea. I'm just a bit frustrated to know that the other one (i.e. me) will be innocent. I'm inclined to agree with mormegil here (what a surprise...) that we should lynch Kath and Gil toDay.

It would be still possible to do that even though I already have one vote, but whatever you decide, I vote accordingly.

So, is it already agreed that I'm a goner, or shall I go back to do more research about other unknowns?

**The Saucepan Man** · 02-14-2006, 05:27 AM

Current votes:

Kath - 2 (Gil and Nilp)
Spawn - 1 (Glirdan)

Votes to come - 6 (SpM, Formendacil, mormegil, spawn, Garin, Kath).

Quote:

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

But Nilp is right, I wouldn't lie to him.

It is, as you know, in the nature of a Wolf to lie to those who are innocent. And that includes telling us that you would not lie to Nilp ...

As I am sure you will understand, spawn, I cannot necessarily accept your statement at face value.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

So, is it already agreed that I'm a goner, or shall I go back to do more research about other unknowns?

No, it is not a foregone conclusion as far as I am concerned. As I said, I would like to hear more thoughts from everyone on the unknowns.

Incidentally, you may rest assured that I personally probably have as much at stake as you do here. If we choose wrongly, the Wolf will kill again. He or she will not go for Glirdan but rather, I suspect, for me.

dancing spawn of ungoliant · 02-14-2006, 05:55 AM

Isn't it silent here? Stupid time zones...

I went through all TGWBS' posts, but couldn't find anything that would have pointed at someone being more suspicious than another - except maybe his post #214:

Quote:

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cailín

Innocents:

Nilp
TGWBS
Glirdan
Kath
Saucepan Man

While I support the majority of those, Cailin, I would like to ask why you consider Glirdan to be innocent, taking into account the points I have made against him earlier today.

For myself, I see the werewolves as mormegil, Glirdan, and either Garin or a quiet villager such as wayne, Gil or Marco.

But then again, you can expound that in so many ways that I doubt it's very helpful after all. Might even make me look guilty.

Oh, and to clarify my last post:

Quote:

Originally Posted by myself

Well, well, according to Sauce, I've been acting like a good innocent should and that's why I'm now suspected to be a wolf?

That's what Sauce said yesterday (#318), but toDay at least Formendacil and Garin seem to have been thinking along those lines. Just wanted to point out that my last post wasn't directed at anyone in particular.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now I must also say that Spawn and Kath are both unnerving me. They post enough, yet just barely enough to stay out of suspicion.

Now, I must admit that I don't quite understand the way you compare my and Kath's posting records.

Here's the post count of those alive:

The Saucepan Man 54
Garin 45
mormegil 35
Glirdan 32
dancing spawn of ungoliant 24
Nilpaurion Felagund 23
Formendacil 16
Gil-Galad 12
Kath 9

Besides, the amount of posts itself doesn't make someone look guilty or innocent, I think, but the contents of the posts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sauce

As I am sure you will understand, spawn, I cannot necessarily accept your statement at face value.

Of course you can't. It's okay.

mormegil · 02-14-2006, 08:57 AM

So SpM have you come up with our official plan yet?

dancing spawn of ungoliant · 02-14-2006, 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nilp

1. She's a Werewolf, and we get her DAY 1.
2. She's a Werewolf, and we don't get her DAY 1. She wins.
3. She's innocent, gets mistaken for a Seer, and killed by Werewolves NIGHT 4 or NIGHT 5.

4. She's innocent and lasts till the end whether it is the villagers or wolves who win. What happened to your research?

*sigh* It would be so much nicer if the last wolf could just reveal him/herself. It would save us from a lot of trouble, really, but I guess that ain't going to happen. Therefore, I might just continue talking to myself since everybody else seems to be on some inconvenient time zone.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Sorry, I don't have time to analyse Gil today.

Did he really lack the time to do an analysis or didn't he want to because it would have looked too bad for Gil? I don't know if I should be suspicious of him or not, although...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gil

well apaprently Malka was seer... i wasn't too sure on who she dreamed of...

...I'd like to lynch him just for this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

I knew we should have gone for malka... Kill her tonight, will you, fellow wolfy?

Wolfy? Whom would TGWBS call wolfy? Is that more masculine or feminine word? Yes, I'm getting paranoid here, but it's so quiet.

**The Saucepan Man** · 02-14-2006, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mormegil

So SpM have you come up with our official plan yet?

Sorry, but my legal duties are taking up rather a lot of my time today. I should have more time in 2 hours or so.

I have been looking back on the events of the past few Days (again

), and all I have time to say for now is that dancing spawn does come across very much as innocent. That is one of the reasons for my concern about her - but really. If she is a Wolf, she has been doing a fantastic job of hiding it. I am beginning to doubt my earlier assessment of her. And my initial concerns about Garin are beginning to re-establish themselves. Just on the basis of some of the things that he has said. If he is a Wolf, he has been taking risks. But, who knows? Anyone else care to take a look at him?

One thing is for sure. We do need to make some decisions. Since you all seem to be trusting me (which will be the death of me tonight

), I think that everyone but me should vote no later than half an hour before the deadline, allowing me to cast the final vote (if needed). Anyone who does not do that will look very suspicious in my eyes.

Oh and, for what it's worth, I am pretty certain now that you are the Cobbler, morm. Do you know who your ally is?

Garin · 02-14-2006, 11:00 AM

Posted by Form:

Quote:

You are a filthy pig-farmer by occupation, and you're a dirty Werewolf by night.

Yes, thank you, um, that is much better Form, I guess. But, I might be filthy but I am neither a pig farmer nor wolf. The pigs sniff out truffles.

Quote:

And my initial concerns about Garin are beginning to re-establish themselves. Just on the basis of some of the things that he has said.

I understand you are pressed for time Sauce but I wish you had expounded. I also fail to see how Spawn seems innocent.

**The Saucepan Man** · 02-14-2006, 11:27 AM

... but, in the meantime ...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garin

I also fail to see how Spawn seems innocent.

Perhaps you could expund on this. As far as I can see, all that you have said on this subject today is:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garin

Spawn's posts have been concise but well-thought. Mostly non-incriminating, but that in itself could be incriminating.

**The Saucepan Man** · 02-14-2006, 12:53 PM

Well, it's really buzzing around here, isn't it?

I have reviewed the thread once more, and I am afraid that it has got me little further. Any one of the four unknowns could be a Wolf. But here is where I am.

I, personally, am discounting Gil-Galad. He has acted how I would expect him to act. And I put his recent behaviour down to not paying attention, rather than a bluff. TGWBS frequently mentioned him as being a possible Wolf, often in the same breath as he mentioned Naria (the quiet ones together). I don't think that he would have commented about both of his compadres in this way so frequently. Finally, I just don't think that two Wolves out of three would have voted so infrequently. If Gil is a Wolf, hats off to him (and his fellows).

I could go either way with Kath. I have found little more to go on than I set out earlier. However, I still think that she should be one of our lynch candidates today. She is currently contributing nothing. She already has two votes. And there are reasonable grounds on which to consider her guilty.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garin

I also fail to see how Spawn seems innocent.

My suspicions of dancing spawn are based almost entirely on the little that TGWBS said about her and the fact that she has avoided suspicion throughout much of our ordeal. But there is another good explanation for that. I have been through everything that she has said and done and found nothing in it (other than her voting record, which is similar to that of Garin and also my own) that seems Wolfish. On the contrary, everything that she has said, I would expect an ordinary, innocent villager to say. I wonder if, in suspecting her, I am simply guilty of over-analysis?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garin

I understand you are pressed for time Sauce but I wish you had expounded.

I will now. First off, my inclination to think Garin innocent is based almost entirely on the fact that he looks so suspicious. I mentioned earlier his association with almost all of the dead innocents. Admittedly, if he is a Wolf, he has been playing boldly, killing at night those he stated as his suspects (or voted for) or those who suspected him. But look how this has turned out for him? He is now regarded as most probably innocent by many because of it.

Then there are some of the things that he has said:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garin on Day 2

I agree with others that those who made isolated votes should be watched closely. Votes late and unexplained are even more suspicious than votes for the innocent.

That would include Naria. Obligatory suspicion cast in the direction of a fellow Wolf? And not only her either - it's a generalisation about the quiet ones. Yet, he never voted for her, or even really came close to doing so. On the day that she was lynched, he voted instead for Marcolie.

And what about his treatment of Cailin?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garin on Day 3 (in separate posts)

I'm not going to waste the whole day defending myself to Cailin, who seems to have a awful mean streak that seems quite predatory …

*******************
I'll admit it, if I was a wolf I would have taken out Cailin and not the vague giggling-kitten. She has it out for me and I am not sure why, It just seemed Valier was just following her lead to a certain death. I looked at the photo of Cailin on the photo page to try to get a feel for her aggression and don't see the pretty young woman acting so aggressively if not for a lupine identity. I'm confused and as angry as SpM right now for the way the village is acting. I will continue to disregard her suspicions and propose we weed out the non-participants.

*******************

I keep wanting to call Cailin, Anguirel by accident and couldn't understand why. Now I know why, because she seems so ANGry. I expect her to behave with the same bluster when she returns and won't vote for her until she does so.

*******************
I apologize if seem to get too personal, I am just reacting to someone who wished me dead. This is why I tried to keep my mouth shut this game, I forget how young and sensitive some of the Downs members are. Anyways, best of luck to you. I plan to keep to my pledge not to post a retribution vote and hope there is not a double lynch in the making.

I didn't think much of this at the time, as I suspected Cailin myself. But others found it strange and, looking back, it certainly is. Throughout Day 3, Garin kept going on about how mean and angry Cailin was. As far as I can see, she did very little to deserve such an accusation, other than to suspect him. He also said that he would not vote for her in retribution, but ended up doing an about-turn and doing just that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garin on Day 3

I think it a mistake to target Sauce at this time. He has these long posts that might reveal his identity if we are patient.

Now this might look like something an innocent would say. But it is also something that a Wolf might be thinking if he was considering whether I might be Gifted. A way of saying something Wolfish, but making it look innocuous? Perhaps he has been taunting us?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garin on Day 4

Well, I didn't want to mention this because it makes me look suspicious in its own right. I think it quite obvious that the wolves are trying to set me up. TWO nightly deaths in a row from people that have either voted for me or raised suspicion of me in their last breaths? I am hardly that bold, especially since suspicions of me came early.

Garin said this early on Day 4, shortly following the revelation of Marcolie's death. Was he taking the opportunity to reinforce in our minds the notion that he was looking way too suspicious to be guilty?

Then there is his seeming reluctance, on Day 4, to accept that malkatoj was the Seer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garin on Day 4

I'd like to believe Malkatoj but she has accused someone who no one else has suspected ...

I don't want to believe that TGBWS is a wolf because he seemed to be one of the first to vote for Naria in the game, It could have been a wolf thing but I won't be surprised if we are falling into a trap.

He carried on in the same vein for much of the day, even after TGWBS admitted his Wolfishness. Did he initially take this position because he thought that there might be some way to save TGWBS? Sounding us out to find out whether anyone felt the same way? He voted pretty early for TGWBS, but at the same time kept questioning malkatoj's declaration.

Ah well. there we have it. Not conclusive, but then none of the cases are. However, I have come round to the view that our lynchees for today should be Kath and Garin.

If spawn is a Wolf, I will be otherwise preoccupied for a very long time in kicking myself.

I will have to leave shortly, but I hope to be back an hour and a half before the deadline. We should try to agree on our lynchees at that point and then agree how everyone should vote. As I said, all votes should be in by half an hour before the deadline (although we cannot rely on Kath turning up to vote). I will be able to hold my vote until just before voting closes.

If you cannot avoid voting in the meantime, please try to vote in a way that still allows a double lynch.

dancing spawn of ungoliant · 02-14-2006, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sauce

And my initial concerns about Garin are beginning to re-establish themselves. Just on the basis of some of the things that he has said. If he is a Wolf, he has been taking risks. But, who knows? Anyone else care to take a look at him?

I was already wondering if everybody had cleared him...
I may have to vote within an hour, I hope that I have more time, though, but I can take a look at Garin if an analysis from a suspect will do. It won't be that profound because of the lack of time, but I can try.

Quote:

If she is a Wolf, she has been doing a fantastic job of hiding it. I am beginning to doubt my earlier assessment of her.

Oh, I get it.

Edit: Sauce got there first.

Garin · 02-14-2006, 01:19 PM

Rebuttal: I read anger into Cailin, I really did, perhaps it was a reactionary response to her accusations.
I have made many posts but haven't said a whole lot, it is my style, I've strived for quality over quantity but it pales in comparison to others.
I said i would follow Saucepan's lead. Does that mean I should vote for myself. I was inclined to vote for Kath.
My feelings about Spawn: It could be a sneaking in under the radar tactic.
EDIT: Whatever this 'radar' thing is.

dancing spawn of ungoliant · 02-14-2006, 01:29 PM

Nice analysis, Sauce.

All I can add is what I already said in my post #270. I found it funny that shortly after Márcolië had said that her main suspects were Naria and Garin, Garin went to cast his vote for Márcolië just because her post #259 looked wolvish to him.

I'm up for lynching Kath and Garin toDay.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garin

My feelings about Spawn: It could be a sneaking in under the radar tactic.

So you mean that I have done nothing else that would look suspicious to you, right? It's hardly my fault if you don't pay enough attention to me from the beginning.

02-13-2006, 05:13 PM	#361
Glirdan Energetic Essence Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Where Lark Nor Eagle Ever Flew Posts: 3,285	Well, even though Malka's death is tragic (our poor, beloved Seer is gone), we all did make some extra cash ( ). As for SpM's suggested double lynching plan, I'm all for it because it then gives me a 50:50 chance of finding the Wolf if we don't get him/her toDay. As he said, all are equally suspicious, yet I find that Kath and Gil are probably the two we really ought to look at toDay. Those two have been in suspcion but not enough to cause to much trouble, which would complete (I believe) Marcolie's plan: quiet:Naria; loud:TGWBS and in between: Gil or Kath. However, that does not mean we need to wholly forget Garin and Spawn. I believe that Garin is either being a very smart Wolf by being extremely loud or just a very innocent villager. Spawn, on the other had, has flown under everyone's radar and hasn't attracted much suspicion until yesterDay. So, what do we do? __________________ *I'm going to buy you a kitty, I'm going to let you fall in love with the kitty, and one cold, winter night, I'm going to steal into your house and punch you in the face!* Fenris Wolf

02-13-2006, 05:21 PM	#362
Gil-Galad Psyche of Prince Immortal Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Above a Parapet Obvious exits are: North, South, and Dennis Posts: 4,733	its probably going to be a double-lynch between me and Kath, i'm surprised i've lasted this far... my onl fault was that i didn't read Malka's post... i made an error on my part though __________________ Love doesn't blow up and get killed.

02-13-2006, 05:43 PM	#364
Gil-Galad Psyche of Prince Immortal Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Above a Parapet Obvious exits are: North, South, and Dennis Posts: 4,733	well apaprently Malka was seer... i wasn't too sure on who she dreamed of... when i re read after voting, i saw that guy was voted wolf and you were innocent... __________________ Love doesn't blow up and get killed.

02-13-2006, 05:49 PM	#365
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	Of course, time zones might create a problem. Some may have to vote before all have arrived and said whether they agree with the plan. That makes things difficult. But it can still work. My idea is as follows: Two known innocents and two unknowns vote for one candidate. The other two known innocents and the other two unknowns vote for the other candidate. Glirdan holds his vote to the end and, if all goes according to plan, doesn't vote. If anyone hasn't voted by that stage, he uses his discretion to ensure the best possible result. Would that be feasible for you Glirdan? Any thoughts? Is there any better way of doing it? __________________ Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind!

02-13-2006, 05:50 PM	#366
Glirdan Energetic Essence Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Where Lark Nor Eagle Ever Flew Posts: 3,285	Saucy, I can not hold my vote until the very end. I will not have a chance to come back on. I might not be able to vote at all. I will try my best to vote, but (due to time zone restrictions, school, band and parents) I may not be able to. So, if I cast my vote, it will be for one of the two that I voiced major suspicion of earlier (Gil or Kath). Edit- Cross posted with Saucy. In answer, that seems like a fine plan because then, you might not need my vote unless it comes to a worst case scenario. Here's a side-note about Form. If he tries to make us not double lynch, it's safe to say he's the Cobbler. I also suggest that we should wait for him to vote if possible. __________________ *I'm going to buy you a kitty, I'm going to let you fall in love with the kitty, and one cold, winter night, I'm going to steal into your house and punch you in the face!* Fenris Wolf

02-13-2006, 05:50 PM	#367
Gil-Galad Psyche of Prince Immortal Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Above a Parapet Obvious exits are: North, South, and Dennis Posts: 4,733	yeah i probably won't be able to get on, so i'm voting now ++Kath __________________ Love doesn't blow up and get killed.

02-13-2006, 06:05 PM	#368
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	Well, my plan is clearly not going to work. I guess that we shall just have to see where we are towards the close of the day tomorrow. I shall try to hold my vote until near the end of the day, but I can't guarantee anything. And I guess you can't trust me 100% either. OK, so who do I think we should lynch today? I stand by what I said towards the end of the day yesterday concerning the four unknowns (so go back and read my contributions here and here if you want to know). The only thing that I would add is I think it more likely that Gil-Galad didn't bother to read much of what had been said before he voted yesterday, rather than his vote being some elaborate double-bluff. As such, I am inclined to view him, for now at least, as innocent (although still a possible Cobbler). If he is a Wolf, he deserves to win for being so convincingly naive ... I also have a serious nagging doubt about spawn. While TGWBS went out of his way to put the case for Kath's innocence, he said very little about spawn. He only really mentioned her among groups of other people, for example when he expressed the view that none of those who voted for Abercrombie were likely to be Wolves. Now, we all know TGWBS to be a subtle and crafty Wolf. I tend to think that this would be more his style when trying to clear a fellow Wolf. Plus the fact that spawn has never really attracted serious supicion still concerns me. We have been notably bad at catching Wolves in this village. We would probably never have suspected TGWBS had it not been for malkatoj. I can well imagine that the other Wolf has been equally as slippery. And dancing spawn is more than capable of carrying it off. As matters stand, I would be inclined to lynch spawn and Kath. __________________ Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! Last edited by The Saucepan Man; 02-13-2006 at 06:08 PM. Reason: Adding the links to previous posts

02-13-2006, 06:21 PM	#370
Nilpaurion Felagund Scion of The Faithful Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines] Posts: 5,312	Hmmm . . . I rather doubt you are the Cobbler, Sauce. So I think the last vote can be yours--if you can do a holding pattern 'til the end of the DAY, that is. And yes, that means I agree with the double-lynch. I mean, crikey, I was the one who first suggested it! So, is it Kath and spawn, then? I trust spawn to be innocent, if that helps. Garin looks innocent to me, but I'm not very sure. Gil-galad is very confusing, and has succeeded in avoiding serious suspicion so far. Since most of us thought that the Werewolves's plan is to have the loudmouths kill off each other, I think he's a perfect Werewolf. Glirdan, you really are the Hunter? I knew I still got it. __________________ フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...

02-13-2006, 06:33 PM	#371
Nilpaurion Felagund Scion of The Faithful Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines] Posts: 5,312	Hehe. I just noticed that I am persistent in defending spawn. Does that make me the Cobbler? __________________ フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...

02-13-2006, 07:13 PM	#374
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,636	Sorry I've been very busy today. For what it's worth the double lynching idea makes sense to me and I think I will be able to vote late as it is a time that works fairly well for me. For my own opinion Kath is one that should go and possibly Gil. I just don't feel good about him and his vote yesterday, while explained, still seems odd enough. __________________ When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators. -- P. J. O'Rourke

02-13-2006, 07:20 PM	#375
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,636	Sorry for the double but I just need to express that I'd still like to kill Form out of principle but I realize this is foolish and we shouldn't but I still want to. __________________ When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators. -- P. J. O'Rourke

02-13-2006, 07:38 PM	#376
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	Morm, what are your thoughts generally on the four unknowns? I would like to hear your views on each of them, based on what has gone before, if you have the time. Why Kath? Do you think that Gil was bluffing? If not, why don't you feel good about him? What about spawn? Garin? Sorry if it seems like I'm pressing you, but the more we share our opinions today the better chance we have of actually bagging a Wolf, rather than two innocents. So I would like to hear everyone's views on these matters if possible. __________________ Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind!

02-13-2006, 08:07 PM	#379
Glirdan Energetic Essence Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Where Lark Nor Eagle Ever Flew Posts: 3,285	Well, I can't hold off any longer. I will cast my vote and it shall be for ++Spawn Good luck my fellow friends. If neither of them end up being a Wolf, I will try my best to find the last on, even thought he/she'd be pretty stupid to do so. Good Day!! __________________ *I'm going to buy you a kitty, I'm going to let you fall in love with the kitty, and one cold, winter night, I'm going to steal into your house and punch you in the face!* Fenris Wolf

02-13-2006, 08:13 PM	#381
Garin Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Ciudad de Lago del Sal Posts: 331	What a day I had and not one truffle. I think, I'll go into the bacon business thanks to these useless pigs. I have to agree with Saucepan's math and go for the double lynching, It is normally something I oppose but this is a desparate time for the village, I am leaning Kath or maybe Gil or Spawn. Garin seems pretty cool. Without everone's cooperation this thing could backfire. Obviously. I'll just try to follow someone's lead. Hey Nilp is Kath really not around, or was that sarcasm? EDIT: I didn't like a comma __________________ I am a sick man ... I am a spiteful man. I am an unpleasant man. I think my liver is diseased. Fyodor Dostoevsky "Notes From the Underground" Last edited by Garin; 02-13-2006 at 08:18 PM.

02-13-2006, 08:24 PM	#382
Nilpaurion Felagund Scion of The Faithful Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines] Posts: 5,312	Garin: She really is gone. If I remember anything, she said she'll be back before her birthday (the 16th, if you would like to know--greet her, okay?) Must go, French class is already starting! I'm late, I'm late! __________________ フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...

02-13-2006, 08:35 PM	#383
Garin Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Ciudad de Lago del Sal Posts: 331	Bon voyage, Nilp, and I must have cross-posted like mad because I once again got distracted by something else. You pretty much answered that already in a previous post. Look! that dog has a fluffy tail! Where was I? Why wouldn't Kath excuse herself from the game if she was not going to a viable member of the village for a prolonged period? That is more of a rhetorical question and not directed at Nilp. __________________ I am a sick man ... I am a spiteful man. I am an unpleasant man. I think my liver is diseased. Fyodor Dostoevsky "Notes From the Underground"

02-13-2006, 08:41 PM	#384
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,636	SpM, in answer to your questions. 1. Kath has been moderately suspicious and I thought she may have been the Hunter because of the way she treated Cailin. She defended her correct? I know TGWBS did. She wasn't around yesterday, though it seems that was known and I must admit that was on of the bigger reasons I suspected her though since we already have a vote for her it might make sense to continue. 2. Gil is...well Gil and I don't ever fully understand him. He may be trying a bluff but we won't know until he's gone. Plus we're more likely to get actual incriminating evidence from Spawn or Garin Between Garin and Spawn I'm at a bit of a toss up so I'll cross that bridge when I get to it. __________________ When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators. -- P. J. O'Rourke

02-13-2006, 09:32 PM	#385
Formendacil Dead Serious Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Perched on Thangorodrim's towers. Posts: 3,309	Interesting day... Here I am, after a hard (well, for a lazy guy like me...) day's work, and I'm catching up on all of the Day's events... I'd almost like to go for the Double-Lynch. Morm and me! What do you say? Oh, yeah... I don't want to die, and we're both on the "Definitely Not Werewolves" list, so even if we're Shirriff Cobblers, we don't get to die... So, of those who ARE on the "Not Definitely Not Werewolves" list we have: Spawn, Kath, Garin, Gil-Galad Of these four, I'm tempted to cross Garin off right away. I'd also like to cross Kath off. I don't know why. Somehow, they just seem.... I don't know... not into this game deeply enough.... Spawn definitely has the right profile for it. Relatively noisy, not intrusively so, lots of good analysis, seemingly helpful. We know she's smart enough for it. We know she's got the experience. The only question is: is she? And... strange though it seems to be for me to say it, I have to wonder if Gil-galad might not be the Werewolf. Time and time again, villages lynch him because he's confusing, or ignore him because he's confusing, and time and time again he's innocent. What if this is the time when he actually is a Werewolf- and we were all too confident in the "Gil could never be a Werewolf" attitude to think it... All in all, I think Spawn the best candidate for today, but forgive me! I cannot shake the idea of Gil as the dark horse candidate we've all been ignoring. __________________ I prefer history, true or feigned.

02-14-2006, 12:09 AM	#386
Nilpaurion Felagund Scion of The Faithful Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines] Posts: 5,312	Here goes . . . Votes: Kath - 1 (Gil-galad) spawn - 1 (Glirdan) I will not vote for spawn toDAY. So, sorry, Kath ++Kath __________________ フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...

02-14-2006, 12:50 AM	#387
Garin Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Ciudad de Lago del Sal Posts: 331	I still think the double-lynch is a good idea but I need to make a vote sooner than later. I am surprised at Mormegil's comments but I can understand the extra stress as master smith to all of those bothersome apprentices. I will likely follow Sauce's lead but I don't want to make the clinching vote due to my status. One of us four is a wolf... Spawn's posts have been concise but well-thought. Mostly non-incriminating, but that in itself could be incriminating. Gil hasn't said much except the occassional poking in for a couple sentences and a quick vote. He seems purposely mysterious. Or maybe just apathetic because he is an ordo? Kath- Well, if she is not participating she best be removed because she offers the village nothing. She will likely get my vote, but right now I want to want to wait. This might be my day's lengthiest passage. For I must truffle hunt in the morn' (My time) and will have little time to say much and should probably be sleeping already. I still think the double lynch is a good idea but if we have to lose someone it should be the non-participant. Garin- Needs to start working-out again because he is letting himself go to pot. Form- Mormegil has it out for him and I think the fact that Form hasn't attacked me is making Mormy suspect me. Well, this is too political for me. I only mention Form because he has been brought up as a vote. If I survive the day I promise we will feast on my fattest pig. Sorry, there's no truffle gravy but it seems this land is cursed. Perhaps, you noticed. __________________ I am a sick man ... I am a spiteful man. I am an unpleasant man. I think my liver is diseased. Fyodor Dostoevsky "Notes From the Underground"

02-14-2006, 08:57 AM	#392
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,636	So SpM have you come up with our official plan yet? __________________ When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators. -- P. J. O'Rourke

02-14-2006, 01:19 PM	#399
Garin Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Ciudad de Lago del Sal Posts: 331	Rebuttal: I read anger into Cailin, I really did, perhaps it was a reactionary response to her accusations. I have made many posts but haven't said a whole lot, it is my style, I've strived for quality over quantity but it pales in comparison to others. I said i would follow Saucepan's lead. Does that mean I should vote for myself. I was inclined to vote for Kath. My feelings about Spawn: It could be a sneaking in under the radar tactic. EDIT: Whatever this 'radar' thing is. __________________ I am a sick man ... I am a spiteful man. I am an unpleasant man. I think my liver is diseased. Fyodor Dostoevsky "Notes From the Underground" Last edited by Garin; 02-14-2006 at 01:33 PM.