Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Kitanna]

So, I have to return to work tomorrow and may make it home before deadline, but that would leave me no time to read the posts I had missed, so once again I'll be voting early.

Durelins' first post yesterday included this list:

I want to look at:
Kitanna
Eonwe
Mith
Ka

Later she added more names:

Anyway, my new handy-dandy list of the others (I hope all), in no particular order:
Eomer
Nilp
Shasta
Mith
Sally
Nogrod
Eonwe
Ka
Formendacil

This next list covers a much greater range (obviously).

She's seem skeptical of Mith and her involvement with Nerwen, saying Mith had picked up on one of Nogrod's theories. But she ends the post with

Speaking of which...based on the wolf kills, I'd say we must have a Nogwolf...

Of course this could have been speculation on Durelin's part based on past experiences.
Her next post shortens the list:

Shasta
Mith
Sally
Eomer
Nogrod

In all three of Durelin's lists Mith is the only constant.

But I have some theories I have been milling over in regards to Durelin's death and her activities chiefly yesterday.

1) She dreamt of Mith, confirmed her hacker behavior and voted for her.
2) She dreamt of Shasta, confirmed hacker behavior, but like my Nogrod theory (see below) didn't want to draw attention. But this doesn't make any sense with her vote for Mith.
3) She had plans to dream of Mith or Shasta and voted for the one she was planning to dream of, thus making a Mithwolf (Shastawolf) and partners semi-nervous.
4) She dreamt of Nogrod and found him guilty of hackery, but didn't want to throw a lot of suspicion his way in fear of drawing hacker attention. This again does not account for her Mith vote except that, again, she didn't want to draw attention to herself.
5) Aside from one Nogwolf comment which may well have been in jest, perhaps Durelin didn't dream of a wolf and this was just what she put together.

Theories 2 and 5 (and to a degree 4) are the most unlikely, but given the fact we don't have anything definite in regards to the dreams I suppose anything is possible. It's likely that 1 may be correct or even 3. Durelin either dreamt or wanted to dream about Mith and this made a Mithwolf and partners worried, thus causing the death of Durelin. Since Mith was a constant in Durelin's list yesterday I am inclined to believe theory 1 is correct.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

A thousand apologies cousin Nilp. Rest assured I punished myself by climbing to the top of the highest tree in the land, sitting there for two nights in the driving wind and rain, haunted by the memory of your innocent voice.

Well, it's true I probably didn't have to reveal, but let me make it more clear. Three people at the end of the day were all voicing some suspicion of me (Nogord, Form and Boro). I really didn't want to be lynched because (and the Nilp vote proves it) my intuitions have not yet proved to be competent. I'd feel horrid if I took an innocent down with me (in this game, where the rules are so kind to the Hunter) so that's why I just made sure.

If Shasta is not a wolf then surely the wolves would have wanted to kill me while I so strongly suspected Shasta. The only reason they would have not to kill me then would have been if Durelin was obviously the Seer. Take Durelin's suspicions at face-value, and if they don't get us anywhere Shasta is definitely a wolf. Of course, being that Durelin had Shasta as a top suspect, we probably have very strong leads either way.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

A thousand apologies cousin Nilp. Rest assured I punished myself by climbing to the top of the highest tree in the land, sitting there for two nights in the driving wind and rain, haunted by the memory of your innocent voice.

Well, it's true I probably didn't have to reveal, but let me make it more clear. Three people at the end of the day were all voicing some suspicion of me (Nogord, Form and Boro). I really didn't want to be lynched because (and the Nilp vote proves it) my intuitions have not yet proved to be competent. I'd feel horrid if I took an innocent down with me (in this game, where the rules are so kind to the Hunter) so that's why I just made sure.

If Shasta is not a wolf then surely the wolves would have wanted to kill me while I so strongly suspected Shasta. The only reason they would have not to kill me then would have been if Durelin was obviously the Seer. Take Durelin's suspicions at face-value, and if they don't get us anywhere Shasta is definitely a wolf. Of course, being that Durelin had Shasta as a top suspect, we probably have very strong leads either way.

Prepare to spend two more nights up in a very tall tree, then, Eomer my friend.

I do wonder, however. Given that you are the Hunter, and given that you did very strongly suspect me near the end of yesterday (a valid assumption would be that you were hunting me that night), why did the wolves not attack you while you were focused on someone who was not a wolf? It seems to me it would have been the perfect time to get rid of you.

Of course I realize that the above takes into account that I am innocent. Well, of course it does, I'm the only person I'm sure is innocent.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

why did the wolves not attack you while you were focused on someone who was not a wolf? It seems to me it would have been the perfect time to get rid of you.

Why indeed?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Why indeed?

....

I'm afraid I still don't understand you.

[Kitanna]

It's time for me to vote. Given what we can gather from Durelin and her death over Eomer's last night I think the hackers guessed she may she the seer. She never came outright with her suspicions, but she hinted in certain directions. Given her suspicions and her voting I'd say she either dreamt of Mith or Nogrod (possibly both) as a hacker. That would give them cause to kill her.

Originally Posted by Eomer

If Shasta is not a wolf then surely the wolves would have wanted to kill me while I so strongly suspected Shasta. The only reason they would have not to kill me then would have been if Durelin was obviously the Seer. Take Durelin's suspicions at face-value, and if they don't get us anywhere Shasta is definitely a wolf. Of course, being that Durelin had Shasta as a top suspect, we probably have very strong leads either way.

This points toward Shasta as a wolf as well. Since why would the hackers want to attack a hunter who will drag down one of their own? But I will save this for another day.

++ Mith

Based on Durelin's lists and vote from yesterday chances look good she had a dream involving an evil Mith.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nog

or then Form but somehow I'm feeling he's not a wolf.

That's funny because I, on the other hand, have an inexplicable feeling that he is a wolf.

Kitanna kept screaming wolf to me on day 1, and pretty much also later. However, the way she behaved made me think she might be the seer who hadn't dreamed of a wolf yet and tried to make it clear. Her vote post was forced, on day 2 she said she was even more confident about Nerwen, she keeps phrasing her posts in a seerish way &c &c.
Therefore I tried not to really suspect nor defend her - rather observe a wolf without accusing for a while than cause a gifted to have to reveal or be killed - but now with Dury dead she cannot be the seer.
She looks like she has something to hide, and she also looks like she was deliberately trying to appear as the seer.
Durelin might have dreamed of her and found her innocent, but I wanted to bring this up anyway.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Later she added more names:
QUOTE]Anyway, my new handy-dandy list of the others (I hope all), in no particular order:
Eomer
Nilp
Shasta
Mith
Sally
Nogrod
Eonwe
Ka
Formendacil

[/QUOTE]
If I remember correctly, this was just a list of people with no certain kind of interaction with Nerwen?

Originally Posted by Shasta

I do wonder, however. Given that you are the Hunter, and given that you did very strongly suspect me near the end of yesterday (a valid assumption would be that you were hunting me that night), why did the wolves not attack you while you were focused on someone who was not a wolf? It seems to me it would have been the perfect time to get rid of you.

This post makes me a bit uncomfortable. As if Shasta was pretending to be very innocent by bringing this up himself before anyone else does it.
Though the hunter isn't always perfectly honest about his (top) suspects, so the wolves might have avoided attacking Eomer also if Shasta is innocent, for they couldn't have known if he was hunting a wolf he was suspecting "just a little".

Some thoughts about day 3.

I trust Eomer's claim. He and Shasta's little quarrel doesn't look staged, and I find also Shasta probably innocent.

Mith is more likely a wolf than Nogrod.

I don't know what to think of Nerwen's Agan/Nilp/Form brawl now. Nilp and I are innocent, so does it make Form innocent as well? Did Nerwen throw in some names randomly or would she name one of her fellow wolves there? Nerwen is surely bold enough to do it, but that doesn't mean she did it. Then again Form might have been the one turned on night 3. I have no idea.

I wonder if Durelin could have dreamed of Nilp and found him innocent?

Originally Posted by Dury #298

Aganzir makes good points about Nilp I guess, but I'm just not feeling it.

Self-admitted incredible idecisiveness in the same post might also indicate that she hadn't dreamed of wolves at all.

Mith, cyber sheep dog is a lovely term.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I haven't completely dropped my suspicions of Agan, but I'm leaning more on cobbler rather than hacker due to what we've learned about Nerwen.

Actually, I was once a cobbler and Nerwen a wolf. She was the only one out of the four that I defended.

Originally Posted by Nog

Somehow she manages to look quite innocent post by post but still I just can't rid myself from the idea she's a wolf.

Exactly my thoughts when I first read this last night.

edit: xed with Kit

[Boromir88]

Shasta is reminding me of when I was the seer, wolf-Nogrod kills me and then steps in and twists what I said to convince everyone I dreamed he was innocent. Only, in this case Shasta is pushing for Kitanna's innocent. I've felt Kit has looked pretty innocent, but it always raises my brow when someone steps in to assure us who the seer dreams of, once the seer has been killed. (You can thank Nogrod for that).

Here are some things I do know. Durelin's been the seer before, and from past experience she likes to spend her Night 1 dream on a high-profile player. Someone who will probably be around for a while, talk a lot, and influence the village....someone like moi (and before that gets twisted - No, I'm not saying I'm innocent and Durelin dreamed of me).

Also, Durelin will leave clues for us to follow, knowing that any day she could be found by the wolves. So, I would guess she mentioned the person she dreamed of on Night 1 during the Day. The tricky part is finding the real clues, and whose identity she is revealing.

Eomer amuses me. He feels frighteningly familiar... Boro amuses me. A lot. There's something about Formendacil's attitude I like. Kitanna is boring, and her vote is even more boring. The Sixth Wizard amuses me. Nogrod's role is just too Nogrod. I want to see how long Nilp keeps his role up. Elf-warrior's first post amuses me.~Durelin, Day 1, post 60

Traditionally Durelin spends her first dream on a high-profile player and several of those players are named here. Eomer, The Sixth, EW, and myself all amuse her. We're all lumped together under "amusing her," so I doubt she dreamed (On Night 1) of any of us.

Now she says different things about Form, Nogrod, and Kitanna. She ends up voting for Kitanna, so I think that eliminates Kit. She mentions Nogrod's role (wannabe moderator) just fits Nogrod too perfectly, there's no feeling or statement of innocence/guilt, it's just a neutral statement. But, with Form she says there's just something about his attitude she likes. Is that our clue to her Night 1 dream?

I would say Form fits the type of player Durelin would dream about early on. Also, I would imagine each day she would leave us some hint as to who she voted for. She only had 3 posts on Day 1...her first post was completely RPG IC, there are no people mentioned, and so if there is a clue it's a cryptic one. That is something I will not be able to uncover. Her last post she votes for Kit on the grounds of stirring up trouble against Nerwen, and Durelin felt Nerwen was an easy Day 1 wolf lynch. On Night 1 at least she didn't dream of Kit or Nerwen.

Thus is it her 2nd post on the Day where she gives us the hint? She lumps several people together, makes a neutral statement about Nogrod, but with Form there's just something about him she likes.

As for her other dreams, Durelin (like any seer) would follow her suspicions, or dream of someone she doesn't know about. She missed Day 2 entirely, so on Day 3, there could be several clues to her dreams. Based on what she said, I have a feeling she had not dreamed of a wolf yet:

I want to look at:
Kitanna
Eonwe
Mith
Ka~Durelin, Day 3, post 252

I agree with Nogrod (and why I'm wary about Shasta's analysis), is why would Durelin say she wants to look at Kitanna if she dreamed of Kitanna and found her innocent?

Also, Nogrod and Boro haven't been getting nearly enough attention. But really, I feel good about Nogrod's vote, because I like sticking to principles. And I liked Boro's attitude on Day 1 anyway. Day 2 I need to look at...obviously.

Here she mentions the two loud-mouths, but I doubt she's dreamed of either of us. First off she says we have not been getting enough attention. Secondly her reason for liking Nogrod is very concrete (his vote), and for me, she is unsure. Also later on she would go on to say about Nogrod:

It just seems so right for Nogrod to be a wolf right now.~Day 3, post 298

I am going to assume for now that Rikae, Kitanna, Aganzir, and Boro are innocent, because they were at least sorta fairly consistently after Nerwen~Durelin, Day 3, post 295

Here are four people she's assuming are innocent. And she is assuming for now, another reason I don't buy the supposed fact that Durelin dreamed of Kitanna.

Now this is interesting:

Too bad Shasta and Eomer can't just duel and get a few things out of the way.~Durelin, Day 3, post 309

(bold - my emphasis)
When the seer dreams of another gifted, does the seer find out or is it just " ____ is innocent." I feel pretty embarassed because I've been the seer a few times and right now am having a total mind blank to whether the seer finds out the role, or just guilt/innocence.

Because then there is this from Durelin after Eomer reveals:

*sigh* Yes, yes, we figured by now you were someone important, the way you were acting...

Does Durelin sigh because one of our gifted had to reveal? The hunter is often times more dangerous when known then when unknown. Or does Durelin also sigh because she dreamed of Eomer, and thus found out he was the hunter...Hence why she leaves the "dueling" clue in post 309.

This doesn't look good for Shasta, but something I'm unsure about is whether Durelin dreamed of a wolf, because:

Well it took me absolutely forever to go back and read through things. And I am extremely clueless.~Day 3, post 295

Kitanna's analysis could be correct though, that she was onto at least one wolf, and the wolves wanted to silence her. This doesn't make Shasta or Mith look good.

I've probably cross posted with several of people, because this took a lot of time, so I'll just say it now.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

....

I'm afraid I still don't understand you.

It wasn't the perfect time; in fact, it was a very bad time for you to attack me last night Shasta. And you knew it, you... diabolical wolf you!!! String him up!

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Mith, cyber sheep dog is a lovely term.

Thank you. I don't know why someone said my vote came out of the blue, I moaned about it the day before - and have always found it annoying in previous games - if finding Nogrod's playing style annoying were the only qualification, I would have been a wolf in every last game we have played. I don't quite know what he means by being considerate but if he thinks the feelings I expressed were insincere, he is sadly deluded.

Eomer, why do you never factor in the Ranger when you consider the wolves choice of kill? Admittedly there isn't a lot of sense in guarding a Hunter who are only useful (as gifted) when they get killed but I can't see why they would make a known Hunter a priority.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Boro, you shame us all with that wonderful post. Excellent stuff.

Edit: Mith. Fair point, and I had spent too much time going over the various possibilities of last night in my head, but I'm not sure I, or the wolves, would want to complicate things. Thinking about the Ranger protection, we enter the horrific realm of bluffs. The Ranger could easily assume that the wolves would avoid me last night and protect someone else (just a pity it wasn't Durelin). Who knows what to think when there are 3 sides to the story? But I notice you are trying to buy Shasta another day.

[Mithalwen]

Usually the Seer finds out the exact role, some mods just say innocent/ guilty but that is usually stated in the rules.

Anyway back to work ...

[Mithalwen]

Oh I don't know sometimes warwar is more fun than jawjaw ... "String him up" is nice and succinct!

[Boromir88]

Boro, you shame us all with that wonderful post. Excellent stuff.~Eomer

Ya well now I might just scrap everything I've concluded about Durelin's dreams and start over. I kind of looked over Durelin's post 298:

Eomer bothers me. He's channeling phantom-ness.

I don't know why if she dreamed you were the hunter she would say that. Unless she was trying to remain hidden, and didn't want to make it appear like she knew your role? Or she wanted to keep suspicion on you because she knew you were the hunter?

Shasta and Mith are my two top suspects. I don't think both of them are hackers. I agree with Eomer that Mith seems like she's trying to give Shasta another day. I don't see why a wolf would be doing that for another wolf. I think one is the spammer trying to sacrifice herself today to keep the hacker alive one day longer.

Finding out Mith's identity would reveal a lot about sally (who made the deciding vote into Nilp's death) and Nogrod. I say Nogrod because he's been a crafty wolf before who has sacrficed his partners to make himself look innocent. I think I'm getting too far ahead of myself, as I'm basing all this off the two people who I think are guilty.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I edited my post above, and I realised that maybe Mith missed it. Just to let you know.

Shasta and Mith both seem like excellent lynching targets today. I must depart now, though, and possibly won't be back, so I'm voting for Shasta.

++SHASTA

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Edit: Mith. But I notice you are trying to buy Shasta another day.

Am I? Other than being a thorn in your side (which considering you have been a thorn in mine all game, I slightly enjoyed) I haven't paid much attention to him. I will remedy that now and study him earnestly ....

Edit- oh yes I did miss it - you see I did actually have to go to work... so bless you for pointing it out.

[Boromir88]

I bet you all are going to love me today. Boro's got lots of time on his off day and would like to keep this an active day, and not resign ourselves to "Well Shasta or Mith will get it today, here's my vote, bye."

Eomer is the hunter. I see no reason to doubt it, so I won't be talking about him. So here comes everyone else not named Eomer, Mith, or Shasta)

Kitanna:

Votes:
Day 1- Nerwen
Day 2- Agan
Day 3- Eonwe
Day 4- Mithalwen

Her voting doesn't ring any alarms. I did say on Day 2 vote for Agan (after she said Nerwen grew in suspicions from the previous day) was odd. Now that Nerwen is a known wolf, why didn't you proceed to go after Nerwen? Most of the time she's voted early and it looks like a well-concluded decision.

Right now, I trust Kitanna and that is mostly due to her posting. Her analysis/theories of Nerwen's death and Durelin's dream are thorough, and make sense to me because they don't look misleading. I willalso say if we find out she is correct about Mith, I would trust her for probably the rest of the game.

Aganzir:

Votes:
Day 1- The Sixth
Day 2- The Elf-Warrior
Day 3- Nilp

Her three votes have lynched three innocents, that's not a very good track record, but so far in this game who has a good track record? Also, Agan's been very consistant, we know her biggest suspects and usually she follows up on them with a vote. Except on Day 2, but I think that was a realization there wasn't enough support to get Nerwen lynched. Where it feels like Kitanna is voting a little cautiously, Agan is not, and that speaks towards Agan's innocence.

I've felt good about Aganzir on Day 1 and Day 2, but these last two I've become less sure. Particularly what she said about Shasta today in 367:

This post makes me a bit uncomfortable. As if Shasta was pretending to be very innocent by bringing this up himself before anyone else does it.
[...]
Some thoughts about day 3.

I trust Eomer's claim. He and Shasta's little quarrel doesn't look staged, and I find also Shasta probably innocent.

Shasta makes you a bit uncomfortable with a post, but then a few sentences later Shasta's probably innocent? I wonder Agan, if you changed sides over night (whatever night it was)?

Rikae:

Votes:
Day 1- Nerwen
Day 2- Elf-warrior
Day 3- Formendacil

It worries me that Rikae has slipped into the background, but her voting doesn't look all that suspicious. Her reason for voting for EW looked innocent. Her vote for Formendacil was on a "hunch," but that doesn't make it suspicious, as she RL has been taking up her time. That won't give her a free pass for the rest of the game, but for today I think there are far more wolvish looking people than Rikae.

And more will come later...

[Nogrod]

So why are Shasta and Eomer still alive?

I must say the wolves are real clearvoyants if they noticed Dury being the seer as it seems to be hard enough to find even one piece of hint from her posts even afterwards with the knowledge that she was the seer.

Neither do I believe the explanation that the wolves feared the ranger. Basically if the ranger protects the hunter s/he meddles with the hunter's work itself. From respect to other's duties the ranger should not do it.

So either of them is a wolf himself? That would explain them being alive toDay.

Okay. If Eomer isn't the hunter he's a spammer or hacker as at the first look at least I can't come up with a reason why an innocent would pose as the hunter. But in that case our hunter knows it and probably should come forwards with the issue. Killing the hunter is always risky for the wolves and getting the werewolves one down would be a good thing. But surely that is then something the hunter should decide.

But just because there would be a real hunter among us who could always disprove Eomer's claim the idea of posing as a hunter would sound a pretty stupid act to pull in not so dangerouis situation after all. I mean as a last effort in a really tight spot why not try, but it wasn't that bad. And it would be a win-win choice for the village as the real hunter could always say: "I'm the hunter, lynch me and I'll take that liar to death with me". And s/he would then be our hero.

So I must say it looks more likely then that Shasta is the wolf and Eomer speaks truthfully. That would mean the wolves were afraid to kill Eomer just because of the danger it presented to Shasta.

Or then it just never occured to the wolves they might catch two innocents with one kill in the first place.

It's sad but true that we oftentimes come up with great, wild and complicated plans during the Days to explain the actions or the lack of them while most of the wolves just play much more down to earth game not always coming up with those absolutely great masterplans... or noticing the real advantages.

But yes alongside Mith I'd be ready to vote Shasta as well toDay.

EDIT: X'd with Boro - and agree, let's not only say let's lynch either Mith or Shasta. We can do other thingsa as well and we should.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I bet you all are going to love me today. Boro's got lots of time on his off day and would like to keep this an active day, and not resign ourselves to "Well Shasta or Mith will get it today, here's my vote, bye."

Oh well that is very gracious of you Mr 88 since you were so keen to see me dead yesterday

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I don't know why someone said my vote came out of the blue, I moaned about it the day before - and have always found it annoying in previous games - if finding Nogrod's playing style annoying were the only qualification, I would have been a wolf in every last game we have played.

Now that you're around Mith please tell me what have I done to deserve this?

[Mithalwen]

Oh don't fret Nogrod it is only during the games that I could cheerfully murder you ....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Oh don't fret Nogrod it is only during the games that I could cheerfully murder you ....

Thanks... I mean, as you said, this wasn't actually the first time.

[Mithalwen]

all those times watching the minutes ticking away into seconds and wondering what in Arda it will take for you to make a decision..... and then you claim dithering is a matter of principle rather than a lifestyle choice....

[Rikae]

Well, all that comes to mind at the moment is the following:
I don't like the way Shasta tries to sum up Durelin's dreams for us, nor the way Formendacil basically repeats his words about Kitanna.

However, I also don't see why Aganzir says Shasta was trying to look innocent by being the first to say something that Eomer had already said.

Why did Boro forget THE Ka?

It seems quite possible the wolves didn't suspect Durelin was the seer at all, meaning she hadn't expressed suspicion toward any of them. I'm not saying that's definitely the case, but Durelin basically fit the profile which might have led the wolves to kill Kath - a strong player attracting little attention in this game and leaving little in the way of leads.

I'm going to go through the previous days' posts if I can possibly find the time. For now, though THE Ka finds it suspicious:

Kitanna~eh. I'm still uneasy about her, especially because of the way Shasta and Formendacil dismiss her.
Aganzir~Neg-repping and spamming do go well together...
Shastanis Althreduin~ I will have to look at him more closely. Really, he needs to be properly analysed, though I'm not sure I have time.
Boromir88~ToDay he seems quite sensible and sincere, at least.
Eomer of the Rohirrim~ He seems honest enough, although at this point I don't want to take anything for granted.
Nogrod~I was a little worried about his relative silence, but toDay he seems back to his old self, complicated conspiracy theories and all. I'm inclined to think he's innocent for now.
satansaloser2005~Not getting much of a read on her, as usual.
THE Ka ~ No idea. Flying under the radar a bit.
Eönwë ~ Another that has fallen off the radar. There is far too much of this going on...
Formendacil~I thought him likely to choose Kath as a kill yesterDay, and he seems to be taking a very controlled, rather ... hypnotic? ... tone. I just have a bad feeling about him.
Mithalwen~Not looking especially suspicious to me at the moment, and I find myself wondering where that bandwagon yesterday came from.

EDIT: X'd with the last Mith and Nog

[Mithalwen]

Ah Rikae - it is a bit of a tradition for both Boromir and Durelin to suspect me... but I think I hurt Nogrod's amour propre....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

all those times watching the minutes ticking away into seconds and wondering what in Arda it will take for you to make a decision.....

It only takes others to say what they are going to do.

I could ramble on this a full essay but to cut it short I'd say that it's not always wise to vote for the one you suspect the most as that vote might A) turn out insignificant (not affect anything) or B) be downright disasterous leading to the lynching of someone you think innocent. So one needs to know the situation before one votes. That's why I also call for people to declare their intent at the last moments so that a reasonable discussion could be held at those final moments of decision. Sadly there are always people who just appear out from the blue and vote at those same last minutes. They are the ones that make the voting so hard.

Of course I'm not always able to be online at the deadline and I guess I have voted once or twice something like fifteen minutes before the DL as the situation has been clear...

and then you claim dithering is a matter of principle rather than a lifestyle choice....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

but I think I hurt Nogrod's amour propre....

Hah. And by the way Mith I actually know this literary allusion... everyone has "son propre"...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Formendacil~I thought him likely to choose Kath as a kill yesterDay, and he seems to be taking a very controlled, rather ... hypnotic? ... tone. I just have a bad feeling about him.

Kath was dead yesterday (though the intro had her in Glorfindel-mode dwelling on both sides at the same time and no doubt against the seen and the unseen she has great power!)? Oh you mean that yesterday you suspected that Formendacil would have chosen Kath the previous night?

Anyway he is certainly guarded and his original IC style hasn't totally worn off.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Hah. And by the way Mith I actually know this literary allusion... everyone has "son propre"...

errr you have lost me again .. me thinks you are over analysing ....
and while we are clearing the air, I don't see why people should justify themselves to you when as far as they know you could be a wolf. We aren't your class!!

I think sometimes you have to take a lead, if you suspect someone vote for them... all this I might vote for X if... seems manipulative and shady.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Boro

Shasta makes you a bit uncomfortable with a post, but then a few sentences later Shasta's probably innocent? I wonder Agan, if you changed sides over night (whatever night it was)?

I wrote my day 3 stuff before I commented on that point of Shasta's, which I hadn't noticed when I first read through day 4, and because I wanted to keep my post coherent I added it to where the rest of my day 4 related things were. Though it would have made more sense if I had written the day 3 things before the day 4 ones.
I think Shasta looked innocent yesterday, but today I found that post of his strange.

And no, I didn't change sides.

Originally Posted by Rikae

However, I also don't see why Aganzir says Shasta was trying to look innocent by being the first to say something that Eomer had already said.

Whoops, it was so obvious that Eomer had already said it that I forgot it.
Anyway, my main point was the following: Shasta doesn't try to downplay the fact that Eomer wasn't attacked, but brings it up himself, seemingly wondering about it. Would a wolf do it? It might be easier for him to try to hush it up, and therefore Shasta might be a wolf. Garr I cannot explain it better. It looks silly but I hope you understand.

I never bothered to take a proper look at Shasta, and although I'm feeling lazy right now, I think I could at least read through his posts. Though with Nerwen and Nilp dead I don't have any clear ideas anymore.

[Boromir88]

Why did Boro forget THE Ka?~Rikae

Not sure what you mean? I haven't gotten to Ka yet, nor Form, nor Eonwe, nor several others. I'm getting there.

Nogrod:

Votes:
Day 1- The Sixth
Day 2- Kitanna
Day 3- Mithalwen

Nogrod's votes worry me. On Day 1 he votes for The Sixth after saying in post 120:

I'm afraid that with The Sixth we get an easy wolf-victory - as well as with Nerwen.

He says he wants to avoid ties (or letting the wolves tie it), but that doesn't mean he isn't a clever wolf that didn't tie the vote so he could look innocent.

And Day 2 he casts a meaningless vote for Kitanna, on Day 2 there were a lot of tack on votes against EW, and Nogrod chose not to. Nogrod was in the position where his vote didn't matter. As an interesting note Nogrod suspects (and ends up voting for Kitanna) and today Kitanna theorizes Nogrod is a wolf, based on Durelin's posts. What to make of that?

Like Agan, I feel less sure about Nogrod, a lot will depend upon how this day, and possibly the next turn out (or well mostly when we find out about Mith's identity).

sally

Votes:
Day 1- The Sixth
Day 2- Elf-Warrior
Day 3- Nilp

And like Nogrod, I think Mith's identity would reveal a lot. On Day 1 she admits to joking about Nerwen being a hacker, and ends up voting for The Sixth. Mith votes for sally because of her vote for The Sixth. Then yesterday sally casts the last vote for Nilp and not Mithalwen.

Nerwen is a dead wolf, I'm highly suspicious of Mith, and sally is connected to both of them. sally, why Nilp and not Mith?

THE Ka:

Votes:
Day 1- Rikae
Day 2- Eonwe
Day 3- No vote?

In post 61 and 71 she stresses that her vote will be random. Overly defending yourself? Then her Day 1 vote is for Rikae, and she admits she could come up with better reasoning. Of course who ever has good reasoning, on Day 1, to vote for someone? I just don't like in her two previous posts she says her vote will be random.

And on Day 2 she defends Eonwe's vote (for Mith, after Eomer's on Day 1) but ends up voting for Eonwe in the very same post. I want to hear some more thoughts about Ka, because she sounds to just be talking herself into a circle and confusing herself (see post 190), but I don't like her two votes. Then she doesn't vote on Day 3. Ka's got me utterly confused. On one hand she is voting safe (she avoids the bandwagon on Day 1 and voted for Eonwe early), but would a wolf not vote? Now I'm talking myself into a circle when it comes to THE Ka.

to be continued...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

We aren't your class!!

I'm not sure which one of us should thank God the louder for that...

Gah, sorry. I just couldn't resist that one...

I think sometimes you have to take a lead, if you suspect someone vote for them... all this I might vote for X if... seems manipulative and shady.

If it just was that simple... but it's a small consolation to have voted proud and right while losing the game. And sure I basically vote for those I suspect, it's only that sometimes one needs to be content with a second or third choice (or even with just "rather him than her" -choice).

But okay. I'll quit rambling and try to do something more productive.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Boro88

I agree with Nogrod (and why I'm wary about Shasta's analysis), is why would Durelin say she wants to look at Kitanna if she dreamed of Kitanna and found her innocent?

Have you not thought thought that maybe she's just trying to hide her identity, and not saying the identity of the true wolves for fear of being killed in the night? It might have been a tactic to keep the wolves off her scent (what?!). Maybe she dreamed about her but just didn't want to make it look like she had a radical change of mind, which always looks suspicious, unless there is a good reason behind it.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Have you not thought thought that maybe she's just trying to hide her identity, and not saying the identity of the true wolves for fear of being killed in the night? It might have been a tactic to keep the wolves off her scent (what?!). Maybe she dreamed about her but just didn't want to make it look like she had a radical change of mind, which always looks suspicious, unless there is a good reason behind it.

It's possible, but the seer should remember that she can be killed also for other reasons than being suspected the seer, and therefore it should be more important that she left sufficient hints for the villagers to find after her passing.

Anyway, Eönwë, unless I'm completely mistaken this (edit: the previous, not the one I'm quoting next) was your first post today.

My internet is dying, so I had better vote quickly.

++Nilpaurion Felagund

I will explain when I can...

Can you now?

Not that I particularly suspect you, I just want to hear your reasoning since you promised to explain it.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm not sure which one of us should thank God the louder for that...

Gah, sorry. I just couldn't resist that one...

That would be me..couldn't resist that either. Trying to teach me philosophy was like teaching a cow to sing (doesn't work and annoys the cow).

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

... but the seer should remember that she can be killed also for other reasons than being suspected the seer, and therefore it should be more important that she left sufficient hints for the villagers to find after her passing.

That is true - after all the wolves may have picked her because she had been relatively quiet, hadn't drawn suspicion, and didn't incriminate them.... this theory works for me ... but then I would say that wouldn't I? Want to go home soon, so to try and cheer Nogrod up after my cruelty (though why I should spare the feelings of my would be executioner I don't know), I will probably vote for Shasta for self preservation.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Not that I particularly suspect you, I just want to hear your reasoning since you promised to explain it.

You know what?
I really don't know why I voted Nilp. Come to think of it, it was more a feeling. There are some I would much rather have voted.

I miss him already.

i just didn't want to throw my vote away, and at the time I posted, whoever I voted for would not be affected. If I would have been there later I would have voted Mith, probably. Shasta and Eomer also seen suspicious, but I enjoy the Shasta and Eomer show. I just hope they as are innocent as they are entertaining.

[Rikae]

Shastanalysis:

Day 1:

Post #27:
IC. “Nerwen is mostly harmless.... some of us aren't harmless at all.”

Now, it's a minor thing, but somehow the latter addition, knowing Nerwen was a wolf, seems just slightly more likely to come from someone who knew this.

Day 2:

Post #142
IC, expresses confusion about ranger preventing kill and McCaber being modfired.

Now, again, maybe I'm just looking through wolf-colored glasses here, but what better way to distance himself from the night's events?

Post #144
“Things that caught my eye”. Doesn't see a wolf in the “Agan/Form/Nilp brawl”. Nilp is the “odd one out”, something “off” in THE Ka's attitude. Seems to be expressing mild suspicion towards a lot of people: Formendacil, Nilp, THE Ka, Sally, Boromir, Kath, Eonwe, Elf-Warrior, Eomer... the questioning of Eomer's suspicion of Mith looks fairly reasonable. Insinuates Eonwe lied about his vote (with little justification I can see, as I pointed out later). Finds Eomer and Eonwe most suspicious, Mith and Nerwen not suspicious, Nogrod “not so suspicious”.

As a wolf would he actually list Nerwen as “not suspicious”? I'm not sure...

Post #193
Translates chatspeak. Discusses possibility of wolf-on-wolf voting with Nilp and Kitanna. Says he will look to see who was conspicuous enough to attract the attention of the wolves and the ranger.

Feels helpful and rather innocent here.

#198
Vote count. Points out it's the second day in a row EW voted without explanation.

#200
“I decided to do something different, and leave the wolves and Ranger”

#205
Wouldn't mind seeing Eonwe gone, he and Eomer are most suspicious, EW “isn't being actively unhelpful” and might just be having issues.

Two posts ago he was pointing out EW's suspicious behavior... hmm.

#208
Kath won't be modfired if she doesn't want to vote toDay.

#209
Translates Nerwen.

#214
Votes for Eonwe

Day 3

#250
“Why Kath? She hasn't even gotten to play yet!”
Sounds innocent enough, actually. I've noticed Shasta is one of the first to post most days – maybe because of his time zone...? And it might make him seem unduly prominent or focused on the nightly events. *takes off wolf-colored glasses*

#253
Was just thinking he'd like to hear more from Durelin (after she posts) will go make himself useful.

#266
To Eomer: “Well aren't we perceptive, considering that EW made exactly 5 posts in this topic; two of them banter, two of them votes, and the last making a note of his gender. Clearly, pure evil right there.”

Interesting, considering his original responses to EW (“oh dear” and pointing out the two unexplained votes).

#269
Argues with Eomer over the “asking the village to lynch him” thing re: EW.

Not sure what to make of this. It seems he's deliberately misinterpreting, sort of.

#271
More argument with Eomer. Annoyed at kill and lynch because both were people who couldn't play because of RL issues.

This sounds like the Shasta I know from other games, and I can understand where he's coming from on this, I suppose. He could say the same thing as a wolf, though, too. Especially if – were he the new wolf, might he not have had a say in the nightly kill? Nah, probably unlikely.

#275
More arguing with Eomer. I would say that a wolf wouldn't be this passionate and attention-grabbing, if I hadn't done exactly that as a wolf myself. In fact, the lynching of innocents tends to look even more offensively stupid to wolves, so it's easy to take the “moral high ground” like this.

#277
To Eomer: “isn't it a common wolf tactic to redirect suspicion onto the person suspecting you? :P”

#280
Would suspect Eomer even more if Eomer were quiet. EW seemed to be having RL issues..,, etc, etc,'

Rereading this argument is giving me a headache. No comment.

#283
Another episode of the Shasta/Eomer show. *yawn* Wouldn't say “loads” of people suspected EW. What Eomer says he would do as a wolf doesn't matter, because there isn't proof.

#304
Why he's suspicious of Eomer and not me. Sold his car during night 3, so might as well stay home and post. Likes Mith's point on Nogrod. Banter.

The car thing makes me feel better about him.

#308
Answers Eomer

#319
Sarcastic remark about voting me for being unhelpful.

#323
Votes for Eomer

Conclusion:
He looks less wolfish than he did before. 6 out of 10 on the wolvery scale, I say.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Now, again, maybe I'm just looking through wolf-colored glasses here, but what better way to distance himself from the night's events?

[...]

*takes off wolf-colored glasses*

Are you also not just distancing yourself from wolfishness by saying that you are wearing "wolf-colored glasses" (coloured for me, obviously). Maybe those "wolf-colored glasses" of yours are actually how you see at night when you kill... (lol, a wolf in sunglasses). Anyway, this seems slightly suspicious to me, using a tactic you criticise yourself.

Or maybe I'm just looking at this through wolf-coloured glasses.

[Aganzir]

If Shasta has been a wolf from the beginning, I volunteer to be cooked and promise to bring also salt and pepper with me.

I doubt he is a wolf even now. He looks innocent, and the most suspicious thing I could see was the "why wasn't Eomer killed" thing I have talked about.

No one has seemingly considered that the wolves left Eomer alive because in addition to not being sure if he was hunting one of them, then they could also frame innocent Shasta?

I'd rather not vote him today.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

There are some I would much rather have voted.

Who be those?

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I miss him already.

I don't. It was very nasty of him to be so suspicious.

edit: xed with Eönwë