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Old 06-14-2008, 07:03 PM   #1401
Roa_Aoife
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Alright...

I feel that Kath was lynched on very poor reasoning yesterday. It had nothing to do with her behavior, but rather the idea that she would make a good wolf pick. This reasoning applies to almost everyone in the village.
Borrowing Sally's vote record, the ones that voted for her are:

Lommie-->Kath at 3:30am
Greenie-->Kath at 6:11am
Lal-->Kath at 4:18pm

It is possible that the last wolf hid among these.

Of course, the last wolf may have also tried to stay clear of a bandwagon to avoid attention, which also leaves:


Roa-->Morm at 9:41am
Morm-->Shasta at 4:46pm

Obviously I cannot review myself. If someone else would like to take that on, I'd appreciate it. *looks significantly at Durelin*

Ugh... I don't want to start with Lommy. I'll get Lal first.
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Old 06-14-2008, 07:17 PM   #1402
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*slaps self in forehead* Oh Duh! I've been completely ignoring this point until now. Celuien and Rikae both knew the last wolf on the final Day. Now, Rikae didn't post anything but nonsense, but Celuien had sometime before Durelin handed her over in which she posted various opinions. Durelin, you knew how she was working in general- can you look through her posts on Day 5 to see if there's any possible connections to the still living?
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Old 06-14-2008, 07:24 PM   #1403
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I find it very odd that Durelin is still alive and to a lesser degree Lal. Gwath is an odd choice indeed. Due to the fact that I am in the process of moving and what not I'm not sure how much time I can dedicate to ferreting out the lone wolf but I will try...more than likely I will go with my gut. Roa is a bit concerning to me, again.
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Old 06-14-2008, 07:46 PM   #1404
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Lalaith Analysis

Day 4 (Known to be a de-gifted ordo)

Post 1 - Pops in to say that she doesn't have time to do a list. Feels very uncomfortable about Lommy.

Post 2 - Votes Nilp

Post 3 - List:

Good: Phantom
Probably Good: Brin, Legate, Gwath, Morm, Celuien
No Idea: Eonwe, Lhuna, Durelin, Kath, Sally, Shasta
Bit Worried: McCaber, Isabelkya
Really Worried: Roa
Very, very worried: Lommy
Evil: Rikae, Nilp

Post 4 - Gives reasons for beng worried about Roa: Believes Roa to be a very loyal and protective team member, and she seemed to be protecting Rikae the previous Day.

Post 5 - Decides to give reasons for being worried by Lommy later. Agrees with Izzy, says she's trying to be helpful.

Post 6 - Reasons for suspecting Lommy: summed up to a bad feeling and instinct

Post 7 - Banter

Post 8 - Points out that we have very good odds, suspects Nilp was an original wolf, points out that the wolf made in the next Night will have been innocent up until Day 5

Post 9 - Responds to Izzy, wonders why Izzy doesn't trust phantom


Day 5 (possibly Turned)

Post 1 - Checking in, sees that phantom outed her, and declares that she is still an ordo

(I always am a bit suspicious of people who declare themselves to be ordos- no one else can know that for sure really, so there's no point in saying it. Of course, that may just be me, but I've seen so many wolves do it....)

Post 2 - Agrees that this is getting boring. Votes Celuien. Apologizes for suspecting Lommy on the previous Day, doesn't believe Lommy is the new wolf because she was under too much suspicion

Post 3 - Response to Rikae


Day 6

Post 1 - Wishes more people had made lists like Lommy had, continues to believe Lommy is innocent, makes a list:

Likely: Sally, Gwath, Shasta, Legate, Kath

Likely but risky: Morm, Roa

Unlikely: Eonwe

Very Unlikely: Lommy, Lal

Wonders about looking the Grimoire. Says she would have picked Kath, Legate, Morm, or Roa. Thinks Rikae would have avoided potential Rangers.

(Lists like this one that conveniently place oneself out of suspicion also bother me.)

Post 2 - Apologizes for leaving Durelin off her list, slightly mistaken response to Roa, agrees that morm should be on his own list

Post 3 - Says she's going to read the Grimoire

(Just a note about the rules- I don't believe we are allowed to use evidence on threads outside of this one, including the Grimoire.)

Post 4 - Evidence from the Grimoire

(Not repeating, because again, I'm not sure we can use this legally.)

Post 5 - Asks if Rikae knew about Legate's time problems on Night 5

Post 6 - Correction on response to Roa, Says that while morm has changed, he's changed to being more normal. Adds Shasta to list.

(Not sure how morm seeming more normal than when he was known to be innocent has much to do with anything- I know I picked him as a wolf because of how normal he could seem while being evil.)

Post 7 - Votes Kath


Lal seems markedly different between Day 4 and Day 5. Her tone changes from assuring to confusing. Some of her behaviors really raise my eyebrows.



Morm, why?
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Old 06-14-2008, 09:01 PM   #1405
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Ha - that's a coincidence, as I was in the process of having a quick look at Roa, I find that she's looked at me.

What I've noticed about Roa is that she has been very keen throughout, to point out that Rikae was not picking out a 'lone wolf', but a team member to play with Celeuien and Durelin. A player who she thinks would be similar in profile.
Now on one level this is a good point, and helpful. I think a lot of us were thinking in terms of 'who would be a good lone wolf' - I know I was. I'm not totally sure of the rules on scrying order but I think Roa is right, Rikae would not have known that her wolf had been scried when she made her scry.
However, it is also worth bearing in mind that Roa herself might make a good 'lone wolf', but does not at all fit the character profile of low-posting quiet team wolf that she's been at such pains to draw up over the past couple of days. Coincidence? Hmmm. I'm seeing why Morm was worried about her yesterday.
Although I don't trust him either.
I'm off to re-read the thread once again. It is a pain about so many of the players being absent. I don't know what to think about that. Are either Legate or Eonwe in danger of modfire today? I can't remember if they actually posted, I'll check that too.)

(PS - if the Grimoire stuff was out of bounds, I'm sorry. I haven't played werewolf more than twice in the last 18 months or so, and was reading it partly to get a grip on some of the players who have joined since my heyday.)
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Old 06-14-2008, 09:06 PM   #1406
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Silmaril

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
(Just a note about the rules- I don't believe we are allowed to use evidence on threads outside of this one, including the Grimoire.)
The classical question...

I think the main question is what we count as "evidence".

If someone fex. defends her voting early with "I had no possibility to get online after that moment" and then someone picks the same person posting on other threads (or hanging on the messenger or Facebook) after that and brings that fact forwards, then it would surely count as evidence outside the game and thence wrong (even if in this particular case the one lying would have been quite unethical or unsporty herself as well).

But we all remember things from previous games, from RL, from our overall experience with others and use that kind of reasoning all the time at least when we form our personal suspicions and trusts. Sometimes it might be quite bad - as in one of my first games when Sleepy Ranger was the mod and wrote something in the death-scene that people knowing him better were able to interpret as pointing to The Ka and she was lynched by that information and turned out a werewolf.

I'd say that is not evidence in the strict sense of the word though and as such is not prohibited by the rules.

But I'd encourage people to articulate their ideas by "in-game" based suspicions or good feelings even if those suspicions / good feelings actually arise privately from a much wealthier pool of knowledge (or after actually searching other games / threads). That makes the games more sportsmanlike and in its own way makes this game more open to new players as well.

So if you suspect someone or feel good about someone for any outside-of-the-game basis do still try to formulate them into an in-game argument.

This is an eternity-problem. I know.
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Old 06-14-2008, 09:19 PM   #1407
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Roa, you will neither understand nor agree, but I will articulate what I can. You seem to be trying to wrest control of the village and to sway popular opinion with early retoric. The problem is, you specialize in this and do it very well. So in and of itself it's not suspicious and acutally is fairly normal. However, my concern is the vibe you are sending me. I am putting myself in the 'lone wolves' place right now and thinking of how I would behave and it's strikingly similar to how you are. You present a good case on Lal, it's well fashioned and logical, but that's part of the problem...you seem almost too emotionless for me, you don't seem lost, if you know what I mean and the only person not lost right now is the last wolf ergo you are a suspect in my mind. Savvy?
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Old 06-14-2008, 09:24 PM   #1408
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Yep, Legate did post once, and Eonwe actually posted quite a lot.
I wonder why he didn't vote?
*Looks up*
Thanks for the clarification, Nogs.

So, other thoughts:
Sally is very cheerful and helpful, and seems to have escaped suspicion altogether so far. Perhaps another player who knows her better can have a look at her.
I am also worried about all these players being so quiet - Eonwe, Legate and Shasta. Particularly Shasta.


Next, I am going to look again at Morm. This may however be in a few hours.
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Old 06-14-2008, 10:19 PM   #1409
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DAY 5

Post #1222 (6:32pm)
Says our odds aren't going to get much better, compliments master Phantom on his de-wolfing of Durie, and says he'll wait to say more until Durie returns. (Lommie, in post #1227 (6:42pm), says he could still speak his mind before Durie returns)

I agree with Lommie here, that he could have spoke without Durie present (it would have given us more to work with). But it's irrelevant now, sadly.


Post #1258 (11:46pm)
Wonders if Rikae's “reveal” was to save Cailin or if it was coincidental. Thinks Rikae wouldn't have gone to so much trouble to save a replaceable wolf. Asks Durie if she knows Cellie is a wolf or if she's just guessing/suspicious.

Gwath's being a little co-dependent at this point. Hold on though, he explains why later. (And unfortunately, when I found him suspicious it was because I missed his explanation post. Crap!)


Post #1259 (11:59pm)
Clears up his vote for Rikae from the previous Day.


Post #1260 (12:10am)
Pulls up Izzy's suspicion list from the previous Day (containing Lommie, Roa, Lal, and Morm). Says that one of these could be the wolf, or else someone could be setting it up to look that way. Doesn't know who to vote, and says the last few days of being instructed by gifteds has reduced his reasoning capacity.

He puts up information, and then presents both sides of what could have happened the previous Night. So far, it's unhelpful and he's not really saying anything (and by that, I don't mean he's not being unhelpful to us, but that he's not giving the wolves a reason to kill him).


Post #1274 (9:34am)
Explains why he's been so anxious to talk to Durie, saying that he wants to make sure that Durie wasn't being lied to about Cellie's wolfishness before he voted for her. Says Morm is trying too hard to make him look suspicious, and says we should all consider that Rikae may have lied to her pack.

Now, this makes sense, but if I was a wolf I would have taken this opportunity to accuse Gwath later, not kill him in the Night. (Again, sorry Gwath, I missed this post, and it definitely makes sense, but we all believed Durie because she wouldn't probably release information without being sure of it, so you understand why I could see the wolf using it to frame you....hmmmm, who else did you say it was again? )


Post #1276 (9:58am)
Still not certain, wants to poke around and discuss more before lynching Cellie.

And that is why I could (before) see him being suspicious, because we'd been handed a wolf and he was trying to maybe lynch someone else. So I don't know why the wolf would have killed him instead of keeping him around in hopes some idiot (like me) would suspect him; it would have been an easy enough case to put together. Blah.


Post #1277 (10:23am)
Says he believes Durie, but still wants to know how she knows Cellie's a wolf. Votes Cellie.

Already discussed. He's overly inquisitive, and the wolf could use that against him later. Why kill him? (which brings us to....)

DAY 6

Post #1325 (9:17pm)
Check-in post


Post #1328 (9:25pm)
Chatty Kathy-ing. Says if he was the EW, he'd have scried Roa.

Hmmmm....


Post #1330 (9:33pm)
Confusion about when the last wolf was scried, as well as why Eon and Kath are considered to have been known innocents on Day 4.

Nothing here, except for again, he's not posing a threat to the wolf.



Post #1333 (9:46pm)
Thanks Roa and I for clearing up his questions.


Post #1336 (10:17pm)
Says Legate and Shasta would be good picks, but maintains he would have picked Roa, as she could just keep being loud and avoid suspicion.

Okay, so he brings up other suspects but keeps clinging to Roa as his main suspect. Maybe that's what got him killed? Either Roa or a frame-up job for her, one of the two.


Post #1347 (12:21am)
Says he'll be gone toMorrow. Speaks of his “fan club” and how Rikae probably didn't know about his lynching track record. Asks me why I thought he knew roles. Says Lal is probably not a wolf, and counts her as innocent as Durie.

On the contrary, Rikae could easily read old games and find out your history; she applied for EW, so she had plenty of time on her hands. But irrelevant now, obviously.

The thing I'd like to bring up here (though it isn't about why Gwath died) is that we should NOT consider Lal innocent. It's likely, but the only known role is Durie (and our own, to each of us of course). That leaves each person with 8 suspects, and while we each may find certain people suspicious/innocent, we can't guarantee anyone but Durie. Just my opinion on the matter, nothing more. Rikae's twisted (she's definitely proven it, silly girl) and I wouldn't put it past her to take that much of a risk on Lal.

And another thing. Gwath wouldn't have been here toDay anyway; why kill him last Night instead of getting rid of a more active player and dealing with him the next Night? That's what really bothers me about his death; it was unnecessary.



Post #1362 (9:49am)
Says it's too quiet. Still says he would have picked Roa if he was the EW. Votes Roa.

Still clinging to his suspicion of Roa, although he doesn't mention her in detail a lot. So he's mostly operating off his own choice and hunches; not a bad idea necessarily, but he stuck to her like Krazy Glue and I wonder if Roa would have made that obvious of a kill. You tell me.
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Old 06-14-2008, 10:26 PM   #1410
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Two posts are better than one....?

's anyone here? (Not sure if you're all mid-post or if you're away, since the last post was an hour ago)


Well, I'll wait a bit, and while I do.

Why didn't Eon vote yesterDay? We all know he was around for a while, he posted a bit, but he didn't vote. Why? Sorry, it always irks me a bit when people don't vote and there's a tie. (Not to say anything against Legate of course, as he told us all he wouldn't be around) I'm sure there was a good reason, I'd just rather like to hear it, know what I mean?
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Old 06-14-2008, 10:28 PM   #1411
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Third time's the charm

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalaith View Post
So, other thoughts:
Sally is very cheerful and helpful, and seems to have escaped suspicion altogether so far. Perhaps another player who knows her better can have a look at her.

Indeed, please do. Seriously, please do. I'm afraid that if no one suspects me, I'll be wolf killed, and I really don't want that. So suspect me....anyone....

*is slightly kidding, but not really*
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Old 06-14-2008, 10:48 PM   #1412
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Quad post....anticapation (of posts), anticipation, it's killing me....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife View Post
Alright...

I feel that Kath was lynched on very poor reasoning yesterday. It had nothing to do with her behavior, but rather the idea that she would make a good wolf pick. This reasoning applies to almost everyone in the village.
Borrowing Sally's vote record, the ones that voted for her are:

Lommie-->Kath at 3:30am
Greenie-->Kath at 6:11am
Lal-->Kath at 4:18pm

It is possible that the last wolf hid among these.

Of course, the last wolf may have also tried to stay clear of a bandwagon to avoid attention, which also leaves:


Roa-->Morm at 9:41am
Morm-->Shasta at 4:46pm

Obviously I cannot review myself. If someone else would like to take that on, I'd appreciate it. *looks significantly at Durelin*

Ugh... I don't want to start with Lommy. I'll get Lal first.


Hmmmm. Where IS Durelin by the way? And Eon....and Greenie and Lommie and....and Legate. Is he going to be gone again toDay? (Fine by me if he is, but his post was a little vague so I don't know when he'll be gracing us with his presence again. Hope everything's going all right, by the way)


I agree. I think that lynching Kath was somewhat rubbish; she was marginally suspicious but I personally found many others more suspicious than her. Bah, too late now, isn't it? Let's just not make the same mistake again toDay, savvy?
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Old 06-14-2008, 11:00 PM   #1413
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Bingo, five in a row

All right, I'm going home then. I'll try to check in before I pop over to church in the morning, or else I'll come by after and see how things are going. And while I'm at home I promise I'll make an analysis of Lal, and hopefully Roa and Greenie as well. Don't know about Eon, as he hasn't said too much, but I'll try. Good night everyone!


Oh, and if Legate IS gone toDay, we can definitely discuss him (what there is to discuss that is) but let's not lynch him when he's not here to respond to whatever we might say about him. I don't think it's fair to him if he's been busy and comes back to post only to find himself lynched. You lot are all decent though, and I don't think that will be a problem. Just stating my feelings on it, in case it does come up.
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Old 06-14-2008, 11:39 PM   #1414
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I don't have much time, so just a few points.

Firstly, Lal, I make a terrible lone wolf. I'm good as a team member or a leader. But I have a tendency to get myself lynched, either because people assume it's safer to kill me off, or because I tend to make more enemies than friends with my harsh analysis.

Secondly, Sally, you weren't there, but I have done the whole "kill off the people who suspect me because no one would ever believe I'd do something so obvious" trick in the past. That was the only game of werewolf I ever lost.

Thirdly, Morm, yes, I do chime in with early rhetoric because A. I like rhetoric, I find it helpful to the village as a whole, and B. the deadline is 2 hours before I get off of work- early is really the only time I have. I'm not trying to control the village, I'm trying to help. I'm tying to work through an analysis of everyone, but I have limited time. Everyone is free to take from the analysis what they want.

Fortunately, I may have more time to actually be around at deadline tomorrow. So, I'll see you then.
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Old 06-15-2008, 04:34 AM   #1415
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Ok, I’ve had a closer look at Morm.
The first thing that I noticed was that he’s participating more now. However, this isn’t necessarily a guilty thing - my own participation has been variable due to RL, plus I think a lot of us felt a bit more pro-active since wolves stopped being served up to us on a plate.
His eye of suspicion does seem to rove a bit. He starts off suspecting me, Legate and Shasta. He then goes on to give both Lommy and Roa a hard time. He eventually goes back to voting for Shasta, but then says that he’s so sure of Kath’s innocence that he’d switch his vote to Green. This part puzzles me, as Green hadn’t really seemed to register on his radar, and to me Kath really felt suspicious yesterday. (Otherwise I wouldn’t have voted for her myself )

Today I’ve felt quite sympathetic to a lot of what he's said about Roa.
Quote:
too emotionless for me, you don't seem lost, if you know what I mean
This is a good point, Roa’s been putting a lot of emphasis on who’s changed since day 4/5. Well looking through the posts I think that most of us have changed, and that’s to be expected. We all knew what to do before: vote Nilp, vote Cel, etc, and now we don’t. Roa’s been the player who’s stayed the mostly the same throughout, and I think that’s actually more suspicious.

I do however agree with this comment of Roa’s about Morm:
Quote:
how normal he could seem while being evil
Which is why I’ve just had a good look at him. Morm is a scarily good player, even when he's RL busy.
But on balance I am more worried about Roa right now. Because of this assurance thing, and also the double-think.
Quote:
Lists like this one that conveniently place oneself out of suspicion also bother me
This is precisely what Roa herself has been doing, just in a much more cunning way, by her wolf-profiling.
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Old 06-15-2008, 05:07 AM   #1416
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Some thoughts about other players.

Shasta's breezy behaviour yesterday did little to make me feel better about him.
I want Eonwe to explain why he didn't vote.
Sally I don't know what to make of. She is nice and fair to other players, which I like, but seems to vacillate a lot. YesterDay she said that she was suspicious of Kath but wanted to wait on her and give her another day. Then at the end of the Day she was so sure Kath was innocent that she was offering to eat her voting notes. What happened to change your mind so dramatically, Sally?
Her analysis of Gwath today however, was helpful - the point about him suspecting Roa and its pro/con significance was interesting.
I think Sally's point about me not being treated like a known innocent is quite reasonable. Despite what Roa said in her analysis, I did not put myself in the same category as Lommy, I said was 'fairly' rather than very unlikely as a scry. I still do think Lommy is an extremely unlikely scry and thus in my mind at least she is innocent. Given that Rikae did not know that all old wolves would be gone, when she scried her last one, and thus everyone started with a clean slate, she had no reason to think that the high suspicion of Lommy would not continue. Rikae may, as Sally says, be 'twisted', but it would have been beyond reckless, IMO, to have scried Lommy.

Anyway, aside from the innocent Durelin, this leaves Legate and Little Green. Legate I agree should be given a chance to play toDay before we focus on him. Little Green I've never played with before, and I'm finding it hard to get a feel for her. She came in for a lot of suspicion yesterday, and I need to read the thread, yet again, to try to see why.
However, it's a lovely sunny day in RL and I want to enjoy it a bit. I'll see you all later.
.
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Old 06-15-2008, 06:23 AM   #1417
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Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
Why didn't Eon vote yesterDay? We all know he was around for a while, he posted a bit, but he didn't vote. Why? Sorry, it always irks me a bit when people don't vote and there's a tie.
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I want Eonwe to explain why he didn't vote.
My internet just died! I don't know why. It just stopped suddenly, just as I opened Internet Explorer. Hopefully, though, its all sorted out, do I'll be able to post more today (and VOTE).
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Old 06-15-2008, 06:31 AM   #1418
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Roa the WW?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife View Post
Firstly, Lal, I make a terrible lone wolf. I'm good as a team member or a leader. But I have a tendency to get myself lynched, either because people assume it's safer to kill me off, or because I tend to make more enemies than friends with my harsh analysis.
Are you sure you're not just falsely reassuring us? Sounds like something a WW would say, especially since you've not been seriously suspected yet, even though if I had done such posts as you I would have been lynched on Day 1.

And I must agree with morm on this;

Quote:
Originally Posted by mormegil View Post
Roa, you will neither understand nor agree, but I will articulate what I can. You seem to be trying to wrest control of the village and to sway popular opinion with early retoric. The problem is, you specialize in this and do it very well. So in and of itself it's not suspicious and acutally is fairly normal. However, my concern is the vibe you are sending me. I am putting myself in the 'lone wolves' place right now and thinking of how I would behave and it's strikingly similar to how you are.
But I've never played any WW, so I don't know how you usually play. I'll go and check some threads......
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Old 06-15-2008, 07:03 AM   #1419
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I agree. I think that lynching Kath was somewhat rubbish; she was marginally suspicious but I personally found many others more suspicious than her. Bah, too late now, isn't it? Let's just not make the same mistake again toDay, savvy?
I would have written this first had she not beaten me to it.
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Old 06-15-2008, 07:11 AM   #1420
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Addendum

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalaith View Post
Roa’s been putting a lot of emphasis on who’s changed since day 4/5. Well looking through the posts I think that most of us have changed, and that’s to be expected. We all knew what to do before: vote Nilp, vote Cel, etc, and now we don’t. Roa’s been the player who’s stayed the mostly the same throughout, and I think that’s actually more suspicious.
ooh yes... that too.

It didn't occur to me before, but now I think about it, yes.





But then contrary to mty previous post, I must conclude that even though Roa has acted suspicious, I don't think she's a WW.
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Old 06-15-2008, 07:13 AM   #1421
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Then, on to Sally.

She's quite nice to everyone, but she seems of late more bright and cheerful than before (I'd better go and check some posts to back up this point later on).
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Old 06-15-2008, 07:23 AM   #1422
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Originally Posted by Lalaith View Post
His eye of suspicion does seem to rove a bit. He starts off suspecting me, Legate and Shasta. He then goes on to give both Lommy and Roa a hard time. He eventually goes back to voting for Shasta, but then says that he’s so sure of Kath’s innocence that he’d switch his vote to Green. This part puzzles me, as Green hadn’t really seemed to register on his radar, and to me Kath really felt suspicious yesterday. (Otherwise I wouldn’t have voted for her myself )
morm is a tough one. He looks like he would be an excellent wolf, but now he doesn't seem like he's as careful as he would be in mormwolf mode (well, I think so). His posting has actuallly become louder and more forthright than before


Now with hextuple(or is that sextuple) WW-slaying busting! Wa-hey!
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Old 06-15-2008, 07:29 AM   #1423
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Hello all ye people, I am back!

Well, I have gone somewhat through what's been posted. I am just trying to settle my thoughts. As I haven't been much around before, let me go aloud through some things which have been no doubt mentioned here, but these are for myself.

We are a little bit like in a situation similar to a normal Day 2, because we just got one unknown Wolf (apart from the things we can conclude about his/her identity from what Rikae and/or, as someone mentioned, Celuien posted and/or how do we think Rikae might have picked her Wolf. There's the thing of course, that Cel may not have been informed by Rikae about the other Wolf at all).

As for the people who are around. Sally, it's nice from you to be so fair to everyone, however this of course has nothing to do with the game itself... let us bear this in mind. Anyway, she made good point about Roa, which has been mentioned. I have the feeling more people are going to stop by this. Roa puzzles me, as she is plainly discussing what she would or would not do, in fact, she is herself bringing up the subject "I can be a Wolf and why". There is the "I am not a good lone wolf" part - she is technically saying: "I wouldn't be a good pick", but whichever way it can be interpretated, we should remember that it's not about what Roa thinks about herself, but what Rikae could have thought about her. Then there's the point made by somebody (hey, wasn't it even Roa herself...) that Rikae did not know that this is her last Wolf, which is true. Anyway, there she is continuing, concerning the possibility of her killing Gwath while he suspected her. This is more interesting. "But I can kill a person who suspects me," says Roa to Sally, which we can read simply as: "I may have killed him!". A logically thinking person must think: why would she say that (if she's a Wolf), as it destroys one argument for her innocence? And now we may start to think: Is it just Roa, or is it pre-emptive strike because someone could say that instead of her "but Roa actually did once kill..." and then when she says it about herself, it won't look as bad as if somebody else said it; or is it something else - like that Roa-wolf simply confuses us... whatever. But anyway, then Roa continues: "This was the only game of WW I ever lost." It may be merely stating the fact. But it may be also (from Roa-wolf) a negation of the before said, as it subtly says: "I lost because of it, so (as you readers must conclude) I won't be that stupid to do it again!"
It may also be that she is simply "giving it up", or, how to say that, playing not too carefully and doing things like that, playing "the odds for me are not great, so let's just have fun with the playing, try to confuse them by posting like this and if I am lucky, they'll let me win".

Or it may be a brutal frame-up against Roa.

In that case I would suggest it coming from Morm.

Okay, anyway. I see my post has turned into a Roalysis more than anything else. There is not also probably much more I can post at the moment... the other important things are:
- I agree that likely, picking Lommy would have been quite too dangerous for Rikae.
- Eönwë I can't get much read on... I think his post is more or less the same as these ones on Days before.
- LG... hard to say anything specific...

*scratches head* Must think on the rest. But hope you have at least something from me to chew... and all... anyway, I am around. Hooray, see ya.

EDIT: x-ed with Eönwë's 1419 and after that. He looks... quite normal, I'd say. If he's a wolf, he can do it the way that he seems ordinary.
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Old 06-15-2008, 07:32 AM   #1424
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Well, that might be all I'm able to post until its almost the DL.

Bye for now.




PS. Please someone else post. I feel like I'm talking to myself. O, how I miss those Days of yore (earlier in this thread)

edit: x-ed with Legate. Someone's finally on the thread!
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Old 06-15-2008, 07:36 AM   #1425
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x-ed with Eönwë's 1419 and after that. He looks... quite normal, I'd say.
Hmmm.... What should I think of this.
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Old 06-15-2008, 08:28 AM   #1426
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I got to thinking a bit and I need some assurance from a few who have the time-line down better than I. Is there any chance that Durelin could be the last wolf? Was she de-wolfified the night that Rikae made her last pick? If so, and I think it was, then she is in the clear, if not, then we need to look at her. The reason this comes up in my mind, is it just seems odd that she is still alive.
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Old 06-15-2008, 08:34 AM   #1427
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I got to thinking a bit and I need some assurance from a few who have the time-line down better than I. Is there any chance that Durelin could be the last wolf? Was she de-wolfified the night that Rikae made her last pick? If so, and I think it was, then she is in the clear, if not, then we need to look at her. The reason this comes up in my mind, is it just seems odd that she is still alive.
Hmm... personally, I have also a little hockey in the dates, and the more the rules, so I simply went to believe what was thought to be right. But from what I collected, it was that she was de-wolved, then phantom asked her and the same day Rikae was dead, so there was no way for her to turn her back? I think she would have died, had she been targeted by Rikae the same Night as the one when she was de-wolved (that would be simply targetting by both wizards at the same Night, and there's the rule for that).
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Old 06-15-2008, 09:54 AM   #1428
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Okay, I'm here.

Kath an ordo? Well... I can't say I'm surprised. I always guess wrong.

Gwath the ordo killed? Freaky. I was suspecting him a little, and some others were suspecting him even more, and I can't see how he'd been giving gifted vibes... He was possibly killed to confuse us, or for the very reason Sally says it's odd he was killed. If I was the last wolf and feeling at least relatively comfortable, I would indeed go sporty and kill off the one who won't be participating. More discussion in the village, nicer to play. I don't know how many others here would think the same way as I in this... possibly Roa or Legate?

Gwath's kill kind of points to Roa and like morm very smartly noted, she's too cool and not confused at all. She would have been a good pick for the EW. But I think her tone is rather genuine... (Once again I can't make up my mind, it seems.)

And speaking of the EW's picks - it frustrates me when people suggest that the last wolf would be similar to the earlier picks. It's outright silly to assume that. Rikae could have picked anyone. I can't see why she would have picked someone who would fit with the earlier wolves and her styles. If I was her, I probably wouldn't have been that obvious. I might have to go back to see who have assumed Rikae to behave this way - because if you ask me, it's not only silly, but also suspicious to assume that.

The kills here baffle me. Why is Durelin alive? Why Lalaith? Why I? Why sally and Legate and Eönwë who've all been suspected very little? I'm inclined to think the wolf is someone not very much suspected and s/he's trying to drive us crazy by killing those we suspect and leaving those we don't. If that is the case, I'm really looking at Roa.
(One option of course is that the wolf is over-eager to avoid the ranger. I can understand s/he might be a bit panicky about that, but this seems crazy.)

lastly, I can't believe I trust morm. The world has changed. And speaking of trusting, I do not trust sally. There's something about her that makes me wary, (but on the other hand, I think she behaves just like her innocent self).
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Old 06-15-2008, 10:43 AM   #1429
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Well, I have been going somewhat through yesterDay's posting and also thinking. To sum things up: I don't find anything particularly suspicious about LG, and I have started to ponder whether Shasta could not be the last Wolf. I mean, the reasons have been stated here: most of all probably his FUR (Flying Under Radar). However, I wish to wait until he shows up and speaks somewhat more. On the other hand, not sure if Rikae would have picked him... I don't think she would as a last Wolf... but as a member of pack, maybe...?

What I am positive on is that she would certainly pick somebody who was not likely a Gifted.

When reading, I was also at the beginning somewhat uncomfortable about Lalaith, thinking about the possibility of her being a Wolf. I mean, if Rikae knew it was her last pick, she may have wanted to go for sure pick (not de-gifting) and even picking Lalaith would have created confusion in the village for a while even if she became suspected - and remember Rikae had (or thought she has) three Wolves at the time, thus, she may not have counted with particularly Lal being the one to remain till the end, but to be one of them for long enough time. However, I guess while reading the thread I was slowly pushed away from this thinking and comforted by almost everybody saying that Lal is likely innocent. Right now I am willing to give her the benefit of doubt, but really...! *finger raised in warning*
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Old 06-15-2008, 10:56 AM   #1430
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Gah. I have to leave early one Day, and when I come back for the next one I see I received three votes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lal (speaking about morm)
His eye of suspicion does seem to rove a bit. He starts off suspecting me, Legate and Shasta. He then goes on to give both Lommy and Roa a hard time. He eventually goes back to voting for Shasta, but then says that he’s so sure of Kath’s innocence that he’d switch his vote to Green. This part puzzles me, as Green hadn’t really seemed to register on his radar, and to me Kath really felt suspicious yesterday.
This is much along the same lines with what I thought about morm's behaviour yesterDay after I had left. If he is a wolf, he knew Kath was innocent and guessed that she'd probably be lynched and wanted to look good by declaring his trust in her
innocence. On the other hand, if he was an ordo and really thought Kath innocent, he would have wanted to switch his vote to me... I see my logic still isn't working.

I'll make a list (for change), because otherwise I'm bound to forget considering someone.

Shasta - My own husband who voted for me. *angry murmur* On a slightly more serious note, I can't get a read on him.

Lommy - Hasn't done anything suspicious and I have considered her innocentish this far (and still have no real reason to suspect her), but I don't know, something in the tone of her latest post, and the fact that she's brilliant in fooling those who think they know her well enough to catch her if she's bluffing... So to say, I'm not as easy about her than I was, but don't truly suspect her yet either.

Eönwë - Still can't get a read on him, but at least he hasn't seemed wolfish this far.

Sally - I'm not very suspicious about her either, but the very fact that I am not makes me uneasy about her. (What a logic, again!)

Dury - Innocent, obviously. (No idea why she's on my list.)

Roa - Puzzles me, as before. Seems genuine, but I bet she would even if she actually wasn't.

Legate - He seems much more composed toDay than he did earlier in the game. I don't know whether I should draw conclusions on that or not, because no one posts in an exactly same way throughout an entire game.. Other than that, I haven't much to say about him.

Lal - Still looks very innocentish.

Morm - Very puzzling. I don't know, he might very well be the last wolfie. The way he flip-flopped with his suspicion yesterDay was odd, considering the way he usually seems so certain about one suspect and concentrates on that one.

That's all for now, as I haven't much more to say. I'm off to think.


EDIT: x-ed with Leggie. Hooray, someone's here!!
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Old 06-15-2008, 11:04 AM   #1431
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Legate, I would never give up until the seer revealed me if I was a werewolf. It's a little insulting that you'd suggest so.

In a more serious note: Of course I keep going back to the 4/5 changes. It's the only solid information we have. As for my comments about being a wolf:

Quote:
Roa puzzles me, as she is plainly discussing what she would or would not do, in fact, she is herself bringing up the subject "I can be a Wolf and why". There is the "I am not a good lone wolf" part - she is technically saying: "I wouldn't be a good pick", but whichever way it can be interpretated, we should remember that it's not about what Roa thinks about herself, but what Rikae could have thought about her. Then there's the point made by somebody (hey, wasn't it even Roa herself...) that Rikae did not know that this is her last Wolf, which is true.
Actually, Lal was saying that I was emphasizing the "team wolf" aspect over the lone wolf aspect because I would make a good lone wolf pick. Which is untrue, and Rikae who has played with me as a wolf more than once would know that.

Quote:
I got to thinking a bit and I need some assurance from a few who have the time-line down better than I. Is there any chance that Durelin could be the last wolf? Was she de-wolfified the night that Rikae made her last pick?
No, there is no chance she could be the last wolf. I'm surprised you asked this. Phantom declared that he descried the Night before the duel. There is no way that Rikae could have scried her again. Honestly, it's a little sloppy of anyone to try to make her suspicious by this route. I don't know why the last wolf hasn't killed Durelin yet, either, but we have a known innocent among us.

Why is my lack of confusion suspicious? I've never been uncalm in a game before unless I'm upset with someone. Right now I have noone to be upset with. Morm, you aren't acting confused. Lal, you aren't acting confused. In fact, the only ones acting confused are Eonwe and Lommy. Possibly Sally.

If I behaved in an uncalm manner, you would call me jumpy, and accuse me of being a wolf. Since I'm not being jumpy, you accuse me of being a wolf for being overly calm. This is definitely the first that's ever happened.

Also, I don't deny that I would make a good wolf pick. That would be silly. Of course I do, and it's best I admit to it. Rikae thought she had a team. She may have wanted me on it. I can't analyze myself, though, which is why I specifically asked Durelin to do so, since I know she's innocent and not the last wolf. (I think the last one is afraid of me. Doesn't want to kill me in the Night because I'm onto his/her trail *coughmormcough* so instead they are trying to get me lynched.)

I find it interesting that once I expressed suspicion in Lal's direction, she decides to start looking for reasons to suspect me. The same goes for morm. I can accept that he just doesn't trust me. That's for the best. I'm more concerned by the people who do trust me, because I wouldn't trust me. The only people moving with a purpose in this village are me, morm, and Lal. Since I know what my purpose is, they are at the top of my list.

Edit: crossed
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Old 06-15-2008, 11:48 AM   #1432
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Legate, I would never give up until the seer revealed me if I was a werewolf. It's a little insulting that you'd suggest so.
Well I did not mean really "give up", I was thinking of better words to explain that, but simply... I meant you may try to be a little more careless, or, how to better explain that, daring. Not that you would throw the game away, but simply that you may not be that much calculative and such... you know.

Quote:
Actually, Lal was saying that I was emphasizing the "team wolf" aspect over the lone wolf aspect because I would make a good lone wolf pick. Which is untrue, and Rikae who has played with me as a wolf more than once would know that.
Well, my point was rather that this is not that much of a point, the main thing was the second part.

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(I think the last one is afraid of me. Doesn't want to kill me in the Night because I'm onto his/her trail *coughmormcough* so instead they are trying to get me lynched.)
Hm, that's quite far-fetched-seeming, I think. Why? In the current situation, I'd think the wolf wants to lynch anyone but not himself, while at the same time causing as little suspicion for himself as possible.

In any case, since my first post toDay, my thoughts were (if I put it in the really extreme way): "if Roa is lynched and innocent, Morm should be lynched the next Day". Which is what I think more people would think, including the Wolf. It will be very short-sighted for Morm to get you lynched, as he'd be one to go after you. That's one thought I have about this.
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Old 06-15-2008, 12:16 PM   #1433
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I have a feeling I'm not getting a grasp on this village. *sigh* So, let's see what I'm thinking...

Greenie - I still have no reason to suspect her. She seems genuine, but I'm afraid she's slipping under my radar. Her vote yesterDay was so suspicious that it actually looks innocent. The wolf would be more careful, I think.

Shasta - Another of these "seems innocent but slips under the radar" -types. I find it hard to believe that he'd actually be the last wolf, but everything's possible...

Eönwë - Seems very innocent. Or then he's fooling us all.

Sally - Nice girl. She acts kind of wrong at times (focuses on odd things, echoes other people's suspicions a bit too much) but she seems very relaxed and like her usual self. She either is really innocent, or then she has taken one more step to the direction of becoming a master bluffer.

Roa - The tone is genuine and she makes sense. Her defense of herself is reasonable and thought-provoking. Is she too good to be good? I can't shake the feeling Rikae might have wanted to pick her, nor the thoguyht that these kills looks like something Roa could (would?) make.

Legate - *sigh* I wish I could trust him, but I can't. There's an innocentish tone in his posts but I have the feeling that I might be ignoring him with possible catastrophic results. Yeah, this must be the first game ever he's slipping under my radar. I guess I don't suspect him, but I'll keep an eye on him. (By the way I just realised I can type without looking at the keyboard. Yay! )

Lalaith - Something in her manner bugs me a little, but I can't say what. It's more uncomfortability than suspicion, though.

Mormegil - I think he seems very innocent but since everybody's been suspecting him I have the nagging feeling of what if I'm wrong...

So, "top suspects": Roa, Sally, Lalaith
But I really don't suspect even them, not much, at least.


edit: xed with Legate
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Old 06-15-2008, 12:23 PM   #1434
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Hm, that's quite far-fetched-seeming, I think. Why? In the current situation, I'd think the wolf wants to lynch anyone but not himself, while at the same time causing as little suspicion for himself as possible.
I don't think it's far-fetched. The lone wolf will be nervous. The odds are against him. He wants to remove threats. He can't just go with the flow- he has to to make sure that attention is focused elsewhere. So he'll find a way to point the finger at others and keep the focus there. And he'll point towards the more dangerous players first.

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In any case, since my first post toDay, my thoughts were (if I put it in the really extreme way): "if Roa is lynched and innocent, Morm should be lynched the next Day". Which is what I think more people would think, including the Wolf. It will be very short-sighted for Morm to get you lynched, as he'd be one to go after you. That's one thought I have about this.
Actually, I have been thinking along the same lines, which is why Lal is more suspicious to me right now than morm. Especially with the way she agrees with him and yet finds him suspicious at the same time. If I'm lynched and found innocent, then everyone looks at morm, who would probably be lynched, getting rid of two strong players in one move, while be able to kill the people with the least amount of evidence at Night. She's distancing herself.
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Old 06-15-2008, 12:27 PM   #1435
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For Lal, on Kath: Kath was on my “unlikely wolf” list. See here:
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
Kath: she's slipped through unnoticed so far, so she'd be a good pick, too good of a pick actually, and that's why I think she wouldn't have been selected
Although I found her a bit suspicious (as I do pretty much everyone else) there were, as I stated, others I found a lot more suspicious. Once I reviewed her posts again I suspected her even less than before, which is why I posted what I did at the end of the Day.

For Morm, on Durie: The Day of the wizard duel, Phantom said that Durie had been turned, and we know that Rikae scried the last wolf on that Night. So in short, yes, we know for sure that she's innocent. There's no way (at least the way I understand the rules) that she could have been turned back; if Rikae had scried her (instead of the last wolf) she'd be dead anyway, so we know she's clean. Good point though, asking why she's still alive. Probably because the wolf thinks she'll be protected by the ranger, although I would be slightly tempted to try her, as she is a known innocent and the more of those we have around the less chance the wolf has to hide amongst suspicion. (By the way, I'm sure this has been answered already, but I typed this post before I got back on the Internet to check the thread, so sorry if I'm parroting someone)

For Durie, randomly: Heh. I keep trying to type your name as Dure, but I keep thinking “Dur” as in “Duh” and....well, that's just not terribly nice. So I think I'll have to call you Durie. (Not that you were seriously insulted earlier, but it is kind of a kiddish nickname, so I figured I'd explain. ) Now, enough of randomness, back to game discussion.

For Legate, on my defense(ish) of him: No problem, dearie. I got lynched once while I was in class; it came out of nowhere and I didn't get to say anything in my defense/suspicion. I just figured it's fair to let everyone have a chance to speak. Same with Shasta yesterDay, as he wasn't home. Ack, it still bothers me that Gwath's dead when he wouldn't have even been here. (oooo....thought)

For everyone, on Gwath: You don't think....you don't think they thought he was the ranger, do you? Nah.... But why else would they kill him instead of an active player? Bah.

Back to Legate, on his thoughts on Roa: Oooo, good point. I actually caught that last night, but I was reading posts on my way to bed (at like 3am heh) so I didn't feel like doing anything about it. She's making comments almost as if she were saying “hey, look, I'm acting like a wolf....or am I?” Curious, indeed. I need to look into this quite a bit, but as I've said she and Morm are my top suspects so maybe I'm a little biased.

For everyone, on me: I'm a bit overloaded today, just so you know, so I'll probably show occasional signs of....*gasp*....intellect. Maybe. *double gasp* That and I'm a bit cranky, so if I sound testy please don't take it personally, I'm just rather tired this weekend.




EDIT: Technically, X'd with everything since....*looks*....Morm's #1426. And, yes, I did parrot. Drat. Anyway, off to catch up.
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Old 06-15-2008, 12:30 PM   #1436
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Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
Roa - The tone is genuine and she makes sense. Her defense of herself is reasonable and thought-provoking. Is she too good to be good? I can't shake the feeling Rikae might have wanted to pick her, nor the thoguyht that these kills looks like something Roa could (would?) make.
... *sigh* So now being thoughtful and reasonable is suspicious? "Too good to be good?" Really? Is that what it comes too? "Oh Roa is calm, reasonable, and helpful- she must be evil." I can't win...

Edit: Crossed
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Old 06-15-2008, 12:36 PM   #1437
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife View Post
... *sigh* So now being thoughtful and reasonable is suspicious? "Too good to be good?" Really? Is that what it comes too? "Oh Roa is calm, reasonable, and helpful- she must be evil." I can't win...
Poor Roa.
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Old 06-15-2008, 12:37 PM   #1438
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Quote:
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... *sigh* So now being thoughtful and reasonable is suspicious? "Too good to be good?" Really? Is that what it comes too? "Oh Roa is calm, reasonable, and helpful- she must be evil." I can't win...

Edit: Crossed



....And I can't get suspected, at least not for any reason. Normally I have no problem getting people to look cross-eyed at me, but this game....blast, I just want to survive.



EDIT: Erm, just kidding. Yay for Lommie's suspicion list naming me!
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Old 06-15-2008, 01:55 PM   #1439
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Well I now didn't know what to think of my dear Sally, because her post made me uneasy a little (the explanatory thing about her view on Kath and also her agreeing with me on Roa... I was little worried it it's genuine; however on second reading it doesn't seem as bad as I thought on first reading), however as she says she is tired, I can well imagine that this is because she is tired. Hm, and her parroting, she says that herself... okay, why am I even writing this, I am thinking as I write... the post of sally's makes me think even more that she is innocent.

And:
Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
For Legate, on my defense(ish) of him: No problem, dearie. I got lynched once while I was in class; it came out of nowhere and I didn't get to say anything in my defense/suspicion. I just figured it's fair to let everyone have a chance to speak. Same with Shasta yesterDay, as he wasn't home. Ack, it still bothers me that Gwath's dead when he wouldn't have even been here. (oooo....thought)
I actually did not mean it as having any in-game value. It was simply a thing for also me to remind of, that however fair one is or what, that does not tell anything about his or her wolfiness or unwolfiness. Anyway...

Isn't it good to be lost in the wood / Isn't it bad, so quiet here?
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Old 06-15-2008, 02:04 PM   #1440
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Well I now didn't know what to think of my dear Sally, because her post made me uneasy a little (the explanatory thing about her view on Kath and also her agreeing with me on Roa... I was little worried it it's genuine; however on second reading it doesn't seem as bad as I thought on first reading), however as she says she is tired, I can well imagine that this is because she is tired. Hm, and her parroting, she says that herself... okay, why am I even writing this, I am thinking as I write... the post of sally's makes me think even more that she is innocent.

And:


I actually did not mean it as having any in-game value. It was simply a thing for also me to remind of, that however fair one is or what, that does not tell anything about his or her wolfiness or unwolfiness. Anyway...

Isn't it good to be lost in the wood / Isn't it bad, so quiet here?


Well, darling, Lal did ask me to explain myself. (see her post 1416) And as usual I'm happy to oblige.




I think I'll look at Eon and see what there is to....well, to see....heh. And you're right; it's too quiet. Perhaps I can remedy that situation for you.
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