WW XXIX Dor-en-Gaur

[Rikae]

Wait a minute; what's the vote count now? Durelin's safe, Morm dies?

[Boromir88]

If Morm's a wolf, I think this really speaks a lot to the innocence of these 3 (Firefoot, Thinlo, and Durelin - who I now have no choice but to trust her at least for now). If Morm is not a wolf, I think these three are in some bad light.

Also, I would hope people will start paying attention to this Mith and Lal back and forth 'fued' going on.

[Thinlómien]

Don't feel bad, Dury, you did what you had to: you had first reached 3 votes, so you'd have died unless morm got more votes, like he did.

It may still change...

edit: xed
Rikae, I think it's morm 4, Dury 3

[Durelin]

I think I have 3 and morm has 4...

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Hmm... I'm messing this up. Actually, even if I'd been earlier, that wouldn't have helped.

Good point Lal, Mith might be the cobbler since she's posting her confused role-speculation all the time... maybe to get us confused? As interesting that theory is, I still think it's more probable that she's innocent innocent.

edit: xposting with the last 2 posts

Plus there was all the obvious umming and ahhing over the roles when Nogrod's narration was pretty clear. The only thing I've got confused on as new to this is what Rangers do in the day. I'm disappointed actually.

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Also, I would hope people will start paying attention to this Mith and Lal back and forth 'fued' going on.

I am paying it lots of attention!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

The only thing I've got confused on as new to this is what Rangers do in the day.

That depends on the ranger, there is (or I have not noticed at least ) a general pattern...

[Boromir88]

++Morm

[Nogrod]

Time's up. No voting anymore.

Computing...

[Nogrod]

Morm the Tall Doctor is dead - even as I didn't quite believe it at the first sight. I had to run all the stuff again to be sure as the PC has been in the hands of Lommy all evening...

Morm was an innocent villager.

Wolves do your worst with planning, Rangers send me your picks... and others...

Narration to follow shortly as I manage it.

[Nogrod]

The villagers gathered at the Inn in the morning but were puzzled by the fact in front of their eyes. The Inn was not open.

The reason for it was soon found out and as the news from the Town Fletcher's and Eiliniel's Witty Brother's destiny reached the villagers, they were getting really upset.

Happily the Frivolous Serving-Wench opened the Inn and all had a possibility to go through all this shock from behind a pint.

It was basically everyone for his or her own against everyone else. The initial votes were spread even wider than the first Day: more than 2/3 of the people got a vote in the earlier hours. But this Day, it seemed, people were not going to change their views so easily as yesterDay.

When the night was drawing close it seemed that the Superstitious mathematician was gathering the votes but then out of nothing a bandwaggon against the Tall Doctor emerged.

"He's not at the top of my list, but he's certainly above Durelin and Lommy" said the Homeless Waif.

"Would there be enough votes for morm?" asked the Ugly Little Shepherdess. The Mathematician was just happy to join the voting.

Eiliniel retracted her vote for the Homeless one and joined in. Simultaneously The Ugly Little Shepherdess raised her hand in agreement. "My vote for the Mathematician was just to save my neck but I would even more like to see this man lynched", she added.

It was at the last moments of the Day when the Serious Jester came forwards calling "Let's get on with it!"

The Tall Doctor was amazed. He had been only slightly suspected during the Day but now, on the final hours of the Day the Village seemed to have risen against him.

"Don't be fools, even if I have changed my way of being...", he tried but to no avail. The villagers were on him.

"It's time to go with my gut feelings" Eiliniel said and draw her small dagger in front of the confused Doctor. "Yeah, I would not regret you go as I would these others in danger. So die you must" called the Ugly Shepherdess and draw her own knife too.

"Just because I act differently than my forefathers?" the Tall Doctor questioned the villgers, but to no good.

"Quit the crap Doc. Taste this!" With a single blow the Serious Jester had separated the Tall Doctor's head from the rest of his body.

There was an awkward silence as all the villagers were looking at the twitching body of their former Tall Doctor. Mormegil was dead and his body stayed the way it had been, a human body.

The Villagers had been wrong again.

Dead:
Volo – The Cryptic Lens Grinder – (ordo) hanged on Day1
Macalaure - Eiliniel's Witty Younger Brother Who's Always Right – (ordo) killed to his bed on Night2
Roa_Aoife - The Town Fletcher – (ordo) killed from behind while dozing off in the middle of her room on Night2
Celuien - The Innkeeper – (Ranger) throat slit on Night2
Mormegil – The Tall Doctor - (ordo) beheaded on Day2

Alive:
Durelin - The Augur of the Village
Rikae - A Superstitious Mathematician
Thinlómien - An Ugly Little Shepherdess
Kath - A Weawer
Rune son of Bjarne - A Moonshiner
Boromir88 - The Serious Jester
Mithalwen - A Frivolous Serving-Wench
Lalwendë - Eiliniel, A Retired Village Idiot
Farael – A Moose Tamer
Anguirel - Gorlim's Lighthearted Brother, Anguirel the Merry
Firefoot - A Homeless Waif
Eomer - A Beekeeper
Gil-Galad - A Confused Philosopher

Night3 is on...

[Nogrod]

The Villager with the list sat beside his table again. He had just crossed out one name from his list and now just fiddled with his pen looking unfocusedly for his own mirror image from the window-glass. It was already dark outside.

The Villager with the golden dagger was sitting by the fireside this Night too. He had been wrong, so very wrong! Now should he try again this Night or leave it be? He knew the risks. Shaking his head for a hundreth time he continued staring the fire.

..................
The two remaining Rangers had crept into the Night already and had both taken their positions, watching, and even more so, listening to the Night ready for any sound or movement. And the hooded one was out as well, his eyes and ears hungry for any knowledge about what was going on. He had been able to learn some good stuff last Night. And now it felt his prayers had been answered again as he suddenly recognised the figure of a Ranger in front of a house. He fell back to the shadows and studied the Villager standing tall beside the other villager’s door from afar. He couldn’t make out who it was as the ranger was cloaked, but he was pretty sure it was the same one he had seen in front of another house last Night. But this was good anyway, he thought. Enough to help his masters.

...................
The three met at the square once again as the world had fallen into the quiet and stillness of the wolf’s hour. Now even the two smaller ones looked more confident.

“Ok, mates. How about we meddle a little with the villagers’s heads like we planned? You’re ready to stick with the plan?” The two nodded eagerly to their leaders suggestion, sharing a twisted grin. “We’ll be off!” called the one aloud. “Hssst...” whispered the other. They both winked an eye to the alpha-wolf and were on their way as quietly as they could. And it was a good performance. The leader-wolf nodded in appreciation and then turned on it’s heels to make for it’s own task.

..................
The Villager with the golden dagger suddenly rose up from his chair beside the fireplace. He had decided. He ran in to the Night with a clear aim. He would succeed this time. He had thought of it now, enough.

.................
The Beekeeper heard the familiar noise through his dream. It was only the first sting that got him awake. Suddenly he realised that there were thousands of Bees around him, in full frenzy, stinging him from all over. He tried to shove them off. He tried to cry for help but there was none at the place. Only the giant werewolf grinning at the doorway heard his cries. And the cries died down pretty soon. Eomer's body still vibrated a little when the werewolf left the house.

On it’s way back home it picked a note from the well and grinned maliciously after reading it.

.................

The Villager never quite realised how they had got in without him noticing. Maybe he had been thinking too heavily again? But now he was tied to his bed and a sack was pulled over his head.

He heard two wolves adjusting something, climbing on his bed and chuckling amicably to each other. Then the sack was pulled off from his head.

“Here’s a little puzzle for you, Philosopher. Now don’t get confused this time.” The wolf told him, bringing it’s foul-smelling mouth just too near to his face.

“Is the world determined or is there a thing called chance?”, grinned the other one as the first one pulled back and the sight was revealed to him.

There was a pendulum adjusted to the roof and the thing that hanged from the rope was a giant axe. And then there were those pulleys and stuff. He cursed himself from never been too interested in the empirical sciences to approve what the wolves had created.

“Fitting symbol, now isn’t it?” said the first one as the second pushed the pendulum into motion. "Time and all...", it grinned. The pendulum swang from one side to the other and was coming downwards with every swing as it also gathered speed...

Gil-Galad gazed at the pendulum in horror as the wolves left sneering to him. “Let’s see how you can think yourself away from this one?”, they laughed as they went.

After a couple of minutes of horrorful anticipation the swinging axe at last came low enough to go through his skull.

.................
The hooded Villager was in a good mood. There had been no distractions in the Night and he had managed to slip the note revealing one Ranger’s Nightly protectionates in to the well at the square. He was going home, getting an earned hour of rest before the hassle of the Day would begin.

But then he heard the steps. They were approaching him from behind. And they were coming in fast. He turned around and saw someone running towards him at full speed.

“Wait a moment Moonshiner! It’s cloudy now and your time has come!”

The Moonshiner turned and ran. But the pursuer was faster. In a question of seconds he was overtaken and the golden dagger flashed in the night. The dagger fell into his back making him howl from pain. He dropped to his knees while the next hit only cut his ear off.

There was blood running everywhere. “Why? What’s this?” he managed to cry before the third blow hit his shoulder, breaking the collarbone. “Pleease!” he wailed to his attacker as the fourth hit went through his side into the bowels. His mind was getting farther and farther away from the here and now as the fifth slash of the dagger opened his stomach.

“I have only wished them to win... The Gaur was magnificient! The power, the command... I’m so sorry I didn’t manage to help them more...” The sixth one slit his throat open and he was a living being no more.

To ease his frustration the Villager with the golden dagger still slashed and hacked the now dead body of Rune, the Informer. Soon he was hacked in pieces but the enraged villager was also losing his strength.

“Darn cobbler! That served you right!” he yelled to the mashed body of the Moonshiner and ran home.


Dead:
Volo – The Cryptic Lens Grinder – (ordo) hanged on Day1
Macalaure - Eiliniel's Witty Younger Brother Who's Always Right – (ordo) killed to his bed on Night2
Roa_Aoife - The Town Fletcher – (ordo) killed from behind while dozing off in the middle of her room on Night2
Celuien - The Innkeeper – (Ranger) throat slit on Night2
Morm - The tall Doctor - (ordo) beheaded on Day2
Eomer - A Beekeeper – (ordo) stinged to death by his own Bees on Night3
Gil-Galad - A Confused Philosopher – (ordo) sliced by the pendulum on Night3
Rune son of Bjarne - A Moonshiner – (Informer/cobbler) hacked to death with the golden dagger on Night3


Alive:
Durelin - The Augur of the Village
Rikae - A Superstitious Mathematician
Thinlómien - An Ugly Little Shepherdess
Kath - A Weawer
Boromir88 - The Serious Jester
Mithalwen - A Frivolous Serving-Wench
Lalwendë - Eiliniel, A Retired Village Idiot
Farael – A Moose Tamer
Anguirel - Gorlim's Lighthearted Brother, Anguirel the Merry
Firefoot - A Homeless Waif


Day3 has started. Please start talking...

[Firefoot]

I'd say that we need to catch a wolf today... Otherwise this village could very well be done for. At least the guy with the golden dagger didn't chop up an ordo tonight - the cobbler was a useful one to be rid of.

So I’ve been thinking, and it suddenly hit me just how suspicious Lalwendë seemed. She’s seemed so logical and helpful and eager to catch a wolf that I’ve just been passing her by, but I’m starting to wonder if she really might be a wolf, especially after taking a closer look at her posts.

On Day 1, she was basically just throwing a lot of ideas out there in a “this person might be suspicious, but then this person might also…” etc. sort of way. She also did quite a bit of commenting on others’ ideas, but usually in a rather vague way like “this person brings up an interesting idea.” And when she made accusations, they don’t exactly look like she means them.

Like, look at these two quotes, both taken from page two.

However, Ang and Gil-galad are very clever to pick up on Boro's quite vocal early suspicions of Celuien. Now I just can't quite decide whether this means they are correct and have pinpointed Boro as a wolf trying strong diversionary tactics, or whether Boro is right and Celuien is indeed a Wolf. Or if in fact this is a clever triple bluff and Anguirel and Gil-galad are both Wolves!

Which brings me back to Anguirel and Gil-galad and the 'triple bluff theory' I brought up earlier today. It was Anguirel who latched on to this after Gil-galad brought it up; of course this could be Ang double-bluffing, but if he really was an innocent taken along by Gil-galad's triple logic then this would further bolster that approach. I'll bet Gil-galad's quite pleased about that if he is guilty. So he is currently my Number One suspect.

In the second quote, she almost presents the theory as if it were her idea – even though it really wasn’t. Almost like she latched onto a plausible theory and decided to suspect the people who looked guilty according to it.

Then there was also the self-depreciatory comment:

*like I'm an expert! It's only my second game!

Which seems to say, I don’t necessarily know what I’m talking about and encourages the idea that she’s just an ordo trying to figure out which way is up. She just goes along with everything too easily.

The third thing I noticed on Day 1 was that every time a comment was leveled at her, she was quick to pass it off as nothing much, while also making too big a deal out of it:

I was just responding to your early comment about 'detesting quiet villages' - which is a fair enough thing to say, but very strongly worded, and I simply thought it a little too early to be bringing up this loud/quiet thing. Now I know Mithalwen is also in my time zone, but I thought it a little odd that she had not commented so far as it was well into lunch time...however, I have absolutely no suspicions of Mithalwen right now and I am quite prepared that she may have been in a meeting.

Especially after Boro said that “otherwise she seemed logical,” I’m not sure that much of a response was merited.

Towards the end of the Day, she took up the role as commentator, keeping the votes posted and who needed to vote yet, etc. Which is good and helpful – someone has to do it – but it also doesn’t contribute much to the game itself while keeping her active.

On Day 2, the first thing she does is shift her suspicion off of Gil, following up on her vote for him on Day 1. She branches out into her own ideas a little bit more, but then at the end of that first post goes back to her throwing out of ideas: was it this person? Or this person?

As she continues to post, her posts seem a little repetitive in content, in that she stays focusing on the same people and keeps bringing up little points against them as reasons that she’s still suspicious of them – often with reference to others’ ideas.

She also continues in the commentator role.

She eventually votes for me, and one thing I find interesting is her comments during the day like “Firefoot is seeming more suspicious to me” – and I hadn’t been posting at all in the interim. I almost get the feel that she was fobbing suspicion off on me because I wasn’t there. I might not feel like that, except that as soon as I come back and start posting again, she backs off with comments like: “Firefoot's defence is interesting. She gives a good case for switching to supporting Boro.” “Firefoot, you're convincing me. Which of course will have implications of who I go for on the next day...” And finally her revoking of her vote for me. Now, this might be a little paranoid of me, since historically when I trust people who stick up for me, the end up being wolves and I end up being used big time – they leave me around because I think they’re innocent. And that’s what I almost did with Lal.

Just the way that she doesn’t stick to her suspicions (she does for a while, and then backs off of them – she did it with both me and Gil) and the way she responds to some of the comments posted about her – I don’t like it. It also concerns me that because she is rather new at WW, people tend to pass her off. I remember one comment like “If Lalwende was a wolf, I think she’d be more nervous.” If she was a wolf, I think she’d be quite capable of using this status in her favor. I’m definitely inclined to be suspicious of her right now, and I’d like to know if you think any of this has any validity.

[Durelin]

Well, that sucked.

The "Cobbler" could inform the wolves of the Rangers' protecting choices? Then what power did the Rangers ever really have? *is angered, and wonders if the village ever had a chance...

At least it does seem that the crazy dagger wielding person might be on our side...

And at least Boromir and I are still alive. Yes, I'm going to assume he is the Hunter. There was no point in him making it up anyway.

My main suspects are Rikae and Ang.

Ang's helped along suspicion of me quite a lot. So did Rikae, though indirectly enough that it did not look like she was "reliating." In her earlier posts yesterDay she actually declared that I was "probably an ordo." But by the end of the Day, when my fate was looking grim, she switched her vote from morm to myself, because I looked the "most wolfish" of the fore-runners.

Rune started the suspicion of me. And we all know what side he was on now.

Ironically, with all Ang's talk of influence, I think he is quite aware he normally has a good bit, himself, even if people "suspect" him.

Still, I think it's quite possible one of the mormegil voters was a Wolf... But, I believe it's more probable that the wolves would have preferred to sit back and see what happened, rather than actively participate in such a mess. It seems that is actually one of the best tactics for a Wolf - to sit back and let the villagers ruin things for themselves, which everyone does...because we just have no clue.

I want to know why Eomer was chosen by the Wolves. Gil seems obvious - he was largely assumed innocent, so he was good for the Wolves to get out of the way. But what about Eomer? Maybe just because. I'll go over more things and be back...

(Cross post with Firefoot)

[Firefoot]

I'm rather surprised that Boro is still alive, as well. I would have thought the wolves would have gotten him out of the way over either of their two picks - as Durelin said, most people did assume Gil was innocent, but he also didn't contribute as much as some. And Eomer hasn't been as vocal as I would expect of him, either.

[Thinlómien]

Gil was killed by wolves? Weird. I wonder if this has ever happened before; usually the wolves like to keep him around because of the confusion-element. But I'm in a way pretty glad he was: he was a very difficult person to form a picture of.

The backstabber-Bond got it a bit better toNight (at least I and Ang can stop cobbler-speculating ), but s/he kinds of makes me nervous... I mean, if we lynch an innocent today, the rangers fail their protections next Night and the 007 decides to kill someone next Night and gets it wrong, the wolves win the game toMorrow.

Firefoot, I think you have good points about Lal, but... You wrote that analysis during the ww-night, right? (Hey, it rhymed. ) How could you be so sure you wouldn't be killed (in which case you would have been doing work in vain), unless you're a wolf...? I know some innocent people do these things during the nights, but it makes me just wonder why do they bother... I mean, if they have the thoughts in their heads, why don't they write them down only after they're sure they're still alive...? It doesn't make that much difference, if you post an analysis 5 minutes after the "dawn", or one hour and five minutes, in my opinion...

Anyway, I must say I'm pretty confused about the situation right now. Almost 1/3 of us are wolvish! I agree with Ff, we'd better lynch a wolf toDay.

EDIT: xed with Durelin and Firefoot

[Firefoot]

Because I was bored and waiting around for about an hour after school for the Day to start (it only took me about half that time, though)... and I also hoped that with as much suspicion as was on me yesterday, the wolves wouldn't think it was worth it to kill me in the night. And writing stuff down helps me think.

[Lalwendë]

On the contrary Firefoot. I'm wishing I'd left my vote where it was. This is similar to what happened in my first game not so long ago. I analysed my way out of a gut feeling vote and lost out on the wolf. And that wolf was also someone who laid quite low and was nice to everyone. I allow myself to be persuaded too much. And this seems to have been carefully planned out, going on so quick after the Day opens. I'm next in line to some plotting I fear. It's a bit convenient unfortunately that I've just messed up a fair bit so I won't be looking too good now.

After my analyses seem to have gone wrong I'm thinking I might just go all out for gut feelings. Plus I've already been called a dead fish for trying to analyse; which is something I can't help doing seeing as that's my day job. That accusation's quite unjustified, especially as those who have criticised me for inputting analysis have sometimes done it themselves. I wonder, are they getting numpty at the newbie daring to jump in at the deep end or are they trying to bat me away from what they are up to? Either way that's very wolvish.

Also unfair is suggesting I'm just picking up other people's ideas - after all, we only have each other to look to in the early Days. And Eomer made a good suggestion - and I did not leave him uncredited at all.

I did not back off my suspicions towards Gil. I'm a bit shocked and taken aback that he wasn't who I thought he was - a ringleader. Yet some of my prior suspects remain and I will be looking at them more closely if I can eventually make any sense out of what's happened to those I had on my list. Or should I just resort to emotional feeling? It's not really got us very far yet, has it?

Still. I appreciate you are possibly quite annoyed at me with my insistence that Gil was at the root of this, and then my vote for Morm which was wrongly done. Whatever. I've chosen wrong and now I'll no doubt pay for it. I'll be deciding how to continue overnight.

[Thinlómien]

I'm pretty confident the three wolves will be found from the following list:
Rikae - A Superstitious Mathematician
Lalwendë - Eiliniel, A Retired Village Idiot
Farael – A Moose Tamer
Anguirel - Gorlim's Lighthearted Brother, Anguirel the Merry
Firefoot - A Homeless Waif
(That wasn't in any particular order.)

I believe Durelin's and Boro's claims of giftedness. I know I'm innocent.

I think Mith's innocent, because I just can't picture a wolf telling me the wolves have 3 kills per Night when they really have 2.
Kath seems very innocent and the only thing that bugs me about her is that she's still alive; she was pretty widely-trusted yesterday.

Of those I list as possible wolves, I think the wolf trio most probably consists of Farael, Lal and Rikae, because Ang doesn't strike me as particularly wolvish and I think Firefoot was genuinely innocentish late yesterday. But I'm not sure at all here, and I will be watching that quintet (half of the village ) very closely.

EDIT: xed with Ff and Lal

[Lalwendë]

Lommy, there's a 30% chance of getting a Wolf this time out. But then if there are two Rangers left, a Hunter and one 'Golden Blade' then there's also a 40% chance of getting one of them. I don't know...I suppose it boils down to whether we want to try and identify who the people who need protecting might be and work from that basis or if we want to just 'wolf-spot' or if we just go for it? Whatever we do, the odds are 7:3 in our favour if we discount special roles, but much worse if we also want to avoid killing someone we are really going to need on the next night! There are only 3 Ordos now.

Maybe we have to start looking at those who have never been nominated before?

[Thinlómien]

But Lal, you must take into account that there's a smaller possibility than 40% that we lynch a gifted, since two of them are known to us, and we're not going to lynch them, are we? (This is, of course, assuming that Boro and Dury are what they say they are and we other villagers trust them.)

[Firefoot]

Still. I appreciate you are possibly quite annoyed at me with my insistence that Gil was at the root of this, and then my vote for Morm which was wrongly done. Whatever. I've chosen wrong and now I'll no doubt pay for it. I'll be deciding how to continue overnight.

Annoyed with you? No. Somewhat suspicious? Yes. But you're still not my top suspicion, and I'm not even sure if I'm convinced by my own logic. It was just a theory that struck me.

I'm inclined to think that Lommy is innocent, and I'm willing to believe Boro's and Durelin's claims. I'm also thinking that Kath is probably innocent. So in rough order, here is my suspicion list.

Rikae
Anguirel
Lalwendë
Mithalwen/Farael
Kath
Lommy
Boro/Durelin

I really want to have a closer look at both Rikae and Ang today.

[Rikae]

Well, I seem to be the top suspect here. Fine, go ahead and lynch me if you must. I'm going to say what I think while I'm here, maybe it'll be helpful.

I did notice one thing I found interesting:
Durelin said:

In her earlier posts yesterDay she actually declared that I was "probably an ordo." But by the end of the Day, when my fate was looking grim, she switched her vote from morm to myself, because I looked the "most wolfish" of the fore-runners.

I went from thinking her an ordo directly to voting for her? Sounds like she must have missed this post.

Oh, but she didn't::

Rikae's reaction is interesting. The arguments she lays against me are much better than those she laid against morm...why didn't she vote for me?

Durelin is in a very cozy position right now; immune from lynching and most likely protected by a ranger. It was very coincidental, too, the way two gifteds were up for lynching days one and two! I'm inclined to believe Boro, because of the hinting Mith pointed out (although even that could be contrived), but I'm not at all sure Durelin is what she claims to be.

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think Mith's innocent, because I just can't picture a wolf telling me the wolves have 3 kills per Night when they really have 2.

That seems even more fishy to me.

But what's getting to me was the way Firefoot suddenly turned up late on last night and all that sheer havoc broke out. I flipped open the computer lid for a quick nose at the vote while I was watching a film and I was just thrown completely. Then Durelin even ended up doing her reveal like Boro was forced to do on the first Day. Firefoot was one of the first few to vote for Boro and then came in afterwards (like I said yesterday before she returned with this chaos) Post 170 has a very odd, (torturous?) 'explanation' of why this vote was swapped.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm inclined to believe Boro, because of the hinting Mith pointed out (although even that could be contrived), but I'm not at all sure Durelin is what she claims to be.

I agree with you here. Durelin could be a bluffing wolf. If the rangers don't know each other, she can easily bluff she's one of them, and no one can prove her bluffing. I mean, the Ranger #1 thinks she must be ranger #2, and the ranger #2 thinks she must be the ranger #1.

EDIT: xed with Lal

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But Lal, you must take into account that there's a smaller possibility than 40% that we lynch a gifted, since two of them are known to us, and we're not going to lynch them, are we? (This is, of course, assuming that Boro and Dury are what they say they are and we other villagers trust them.)

So really we are basing our sums on a base of 8 possibles? So there's a 25% chance we lynch a gifted if we leave Durelin and Boro out of it.

I must go to bed now!

[Firefoot]

It was very coincidental, too, the way two gifteds were up for lynching days one and two!

I don't think that this is necessarily significant. At the outset of the game, there were 5 good gifteds compared with 10 ordos (Naria, of course, never showed up). This combined with the fact that gifteds tend to look more suspicious than ordos (which makes sense; they have something to hide as well) makes it entirely possible for two gifteds to have come up for lynching - especially with as many people received votes yesterday. At most, Durelin only ever had three or four votes - hardly a majority among 14 people - so it's not like we've had both gifteds end up the runaway leaders.

I'm not sure that all this x% chance of lynching of gifted is correct reasoning, anyhow; hopefully, at least, our remaining gifteds would be able to let us know before it was too late... if we came close to lynching yet another one.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

our remaining gifteds would be able to let us know before it was too late... if we came close to lynching yet another one.

You know Firefoot, something in you behaviour makes me really uneasy at times. That comment, for example. That attitude and the light-heartedness you speak about gifted revealing... It just doesn't sit right with me.

When it comes to lynching someone, I think this village will, sooner or later, have much more than two rangers...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I'm not sure that all this x% chance of lynching of gifted is correct reasoning, anyhow; hopefully, at least, our remaining gifteds would be able to let us know before it was too late... if we came close to lynching yet another one.

Preparing for your own "revelation" if it becomes necessary?

[Rikae]

Looking at the wolf kills:




Eomer -

#1 – Thinks Boro, Mac and Lommy suspicious for being too trusting; agrees with Roa and Rune re: overconfidence, agrees with Morm re: a swift lynch

#2 – Thinks Volo “the cocky wolf”; agrees with Farael's suspicions of Lommy; wolves won't mention each other by name if they can help it.

#3 – Suspects Firefoot because of her suspicions of Gil and Boro.

#4 – Wants Mac lynched; wants to keep Boro around.

#5 – Doesn't want to vote Volo, who's “almost daring us to vote for him”; might vote Mac instead

#6 – Votes for Volo. Suspects Volo, Firefoot and Lommy

#7 – Thinks there's a “good werebear” and a seer.

#8 – Notes that wolves went after two Gil-Galad voters.

#9 – Question about seer.

#10 – Still thinks wolves were going for a possible seer.

#11 – Elaborates on Gil-wolf theory.

#12 – Self defense

#13 – Votes for Rune

Going by the theory that the wolves are eliminating threats (since it's the only theory we have so far), his suspects were:

Dead:
Gil
Volo
Mac
Rune - evil, but did the wolves know it?

Alive:
Boro - but before he revealed himself
Firefoot
Lommy

Still, these were his Day 1 suspects; Day 2 he suspected Rune, so it looks most like the wolves knew Rune's role.

I'll look at Gil now, just a minute...

[Thinlómien]

Always remember the possibility of a set-up or a double-bluff...

Anyway, I think the wolves would be after possible gifteds (they're the ones that may make choices that are not affected by the wolves, unlike the lynches for example) or generally trusted ones (especially if the wolves themselves have been under suspicion - something worth keeping in mind) at this phase, rather than after "threats". I might be wrong - since I obviously can't read their minds - but this is my guess.

[Rikae]

Gil:




#1 – Paranoia, jumping on Firefoot's “bandwagon”

#2 – Votes Boro for suspicions of Cel

#3- Suspects Boro and his supporters.

#4 – Question about Boro's revelation

#5 – Wonders if Boro might be bluffing but will not vote for him

#6 – Odd post about “the key to surviving is to strike a balance”; trust nobody

#7 – Votes Farael for slipping under the radar

Gil's suspects:

Boro
Farael

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Always remember the possibility of a set-up or a double-bluff...

Well, looking at Gil's suspects now, neither makes much sense...although I think it's unlikely they would have considered Gil a threat. It could be they thought he was gifted, though.

Anyway, I think the wolves would be after possible gifteds (they're the ones that may make choices that are not affected by the wolves, unlike the lynches for example) or generally trusted ones (especially if the wolves themselves have been under suspicion - something worth keeping in mind) at this phase, rather than after "threats". I might be wrong - since I obviously can't read their minds - but this is my guess.

Of course, Gil wasn't trusted. I see they simultaneously killed Eomer and disproved his theory about Gil - what do you make of that?

[Thinlómien]

I have no idea. Maybe they're just trying to confuse us, and get our thoughts away from wolf-hunting to death-speculating...?

[Rikae]

Death speculating is wolf hunting. We should use every bit of information we have.

For that matter, we should look at Rune, he might have known who the wolves were, or they might have known what he was.

[Thinlómien]

1) If the wolves were aware of the cobbler's identity, then we should watch Kath. In her post #233 she summarises almost everyone, but curiously, Rune's left out. Now I guess this was because she thought it was difficult to say anything about him and left him the last and then just forgot about it. Now the possibility of the wolves knowing the identity of the cobbler just gives more insight why could it have been so difficult... Admitted, I feel pretty much clinging at straws here, but I just thought I'd say that aloud.

2) Farael should speak up. All we know about him is that he's convinced that I'm a wolf. That's a beautiful situation for a wolf-Farael to be in!

[Rikae]

I noticed that too, Lommy, and wondered about it. I thought she might be sending some kind of hint, actually. On the other hand, it's easy to forget. I realized that I had left Eomer out of my list yesterday just before I posted; and somebody else (can't remember now) left someone out of their list as well.

Farael...is not himself and admits it. I think he's clever enough to use that admission as cover - "no wolf would admit to acting different!". I also think he was clearly trying to behave as people have come to expect him to, until he was called on being different. It's weird and unnerving to have Farael lurking on the fringes, instead of in the thick of things.
Of course, I felt the same way about Morm, and he turned out innocent.

(In case you haven't noticed, I try to look at both sides of things. I realize that's considered "evil". )

[Thinlómien]

Now, I'm pretty assured sleep will help me a lot more than rereading... It's almost 2:40 AM here... I'll be back after I've slept enough.

I reread the whole yesterday. I think Firefoot is probably innocent, however weird she has been today: I can't picture a wolf doing the things she did late yesterDay. If she'd been wolf, why wouldn't she have voted me or Durelin (before Dury came out that is).

Rikae's and Lalwendë's yesterdays left me with a wary feeling.

Mith and Kath still seem innocent, and I still trust Boro.

Farael's weird... as I said I'd like to hear more from him... especially what he thinks about others than me...

Durelin and Anguirel are very difficult... but I'm slightly inclined to believe in the first one's innocence...

Good night!

EDIT: xed with Rikae

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

(In case you haven't noticed, I try to look at both sides of things. I realize that's considered "evil". )

No Rikae, it's considered flip-flopping... trust me, I have experience on that...

Anyway, good night-y, or whatever phase of day you guys happen to have...

[Rikae]

Good night!