WW XXIX Dor-en-Gaur

[Mithalwen]

Ahhh the name's Blonde ..licensed to be dumb ..and everyone knows that accountants don't add up normally (cf the one accountancy joke....)

[Boromir88]

Lommy, Rune left the notes of the ranger's protections, but the man with the list (at least here in the Day 2 narration):

The other one was sitting by his table beside the window and held a piece of paper in his hand. In his other hand there was a pen, and written to the paper were numbers one, two and three. He was staring at the paper and thinking. Both villagers were frantically going through the discussion of the last Day: what had been said and by whom. A lot might depend on their judgement

Is most assuredly me who sends in my list of the 3 most suspicious people.

[Mithalwen]

So is that something you update? I wondered if the crossing off was becasue Morm was dead ..not that I found him sus myself....

[Thinlómien]

Lal, I don't quite get your point. What is this master plan of wolves you speak about?

And I checked the narration... Never mind what I just said about the list-guy, I was obviously wrong...

edit: mass x-posting, since Lal's last post

[Boromir88]

As often as I feel I need to update it Mith...but please let's do get back to the day business.

Lal, your last post definitely show some great desperation. I'm not sure why you mention this:

Remembering what Rune said, we can trust nobody in this game. Still, I don't think I would vote for him.

Why would we wish to remember what Rune said? Rune was out to confuse and to only benefit the wolves, so I don't wish to take his advice of 'not trusting anyone.' Without the Seer this game is purely about trust.

And Anguirel might be one funny guy (who could forget his quivering zabaglione?) but I am really, really thrown by his need to 'reveal' at a moment when there was no need which makes me think it was a feint.

You seem to think that one only must reveal when they are in trouble. Actually that's only part of the situation for the gifteds. The gifteds should reveal themselves when they feel it's the best time to do so (i.e. either their life is in danger or they believe their revealment will help the village).

Lal your last post looks all too much like a desperate wolf just trying to drag everyone down with you. Trying to get us worried that we can't trust anyone here, and there's some wolf plot brewing up here. The situation we are in this village is about trust, you're burning Lal and you're trying to take everyone down with you to put doubt in our minds about everyone else in this village...hmm looks like a wolf to me.

[Mithalwen]

Farael and Kath have posted less than people who have been dead for a couple of days - part of me says that to have 2 quiet wolves in one game is unusual it would explain why Gil was the "quiet one " lynched. I know alot of peopel had decided he was innocent but in a panicky village it is generally possible to get an erraticpalyer who hasn't posted much lynched....

Just thinking aloud here ....

[Mithalwen]

Is it statistically better for Ang to kill today maximaising our chances of getting a wolf and therefore halving the potential wolf kills tonight .... of course more chance of hitting the ranger .....

and in case Lal claims to be ranger 2 as her next strategy... would a ranger be quite that clueless about the role?

[Thinlómien]

Mith? Gil was not lynched. He was killed by the wolves last night.

What are you trying to say?

EDIT: xed with Mith's latest post

[Thinlómien]

But Lal was clueless what rangers do during the day, and that is not something you generally get in your role instructions...

[Mithalwen]

yes Lom you are right ..it meant to say why teh wolves chose him of the quiet ones to kill instead of engineering a lynch .... I knew what I meant ....which is not a lot of good for anyone else ....

but I do think that if you have a role you find out what you do.....

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

yes Lom you are right ..it meant to say why teh wolves chose him of the quiet ones to kill instead of engineering a lynch .... I knew what I meant ....which is not a lot of good for anyone else ....

Ok, now I see what you meant and I'm pretty sure I got the point...

[Boromir88]

Ang if you are not that confident I would ask you to hold your kill for tonight as you have 1 choice. Where I can send in 3 and the probabilities that one of those is a wolf I think is extremely high. So if the wolves dare kill me I have a much better chance to take one down with me than you would on one choice. Though you are the one with the decision and you make the one you think would be best.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

It was a bad (and very suspicious) mistake, I'll grant you that. But it was an honest mistake - I just wasn't paying attention. That's all I'm going to say about it.

Admitting that you look suspicious doesn't make you less so.

Another thing I noticed now, looking at your defense of Durelin, is that you first admit she could be bluffing "to stay alive for one more day" but dismiss this as unlikely since she'd be found out quickly; however, in this game, staying alive for one more NIGHT would be uppermost in a wolf's mind; it would mean an extra kill. You seem to have conveniently forgotten that. At any rate, you then absolve Durelin of possible guilt and suspect those who don't trust her. It's a typical lupine pseudo-analysis of a furry friend.

You're right; if Durelin's a wolf there are two more wolves out there - and I think I've found one of them.

++Firefoot

EDIT - X'd with Boro and lots of other people.

[Mithalwen]

I am trusting the declared gifted and know I am innocent.

Ergo I am looking at Farael, Firefoot, Rikae, Lommy,Lal, and Kath.

3wolves, 1 Ranger, 2 ordos.

I am inclined to trust Lommy and Lal still looks the most wolvish but I am looking at all as I read through but I am running out of time......

[Boromir88]

I think either Firefoot is an innocent that made a mistake and Rikae's jump on it is a wolf move to try and draw people away from Lal. Or Firefoot made a wolf slip and Rikae is correct and therefor innocent...hmm which one is it? I doubt both are wolves.

[Anguirel]

It amazes me that Lal and Rikae are both persisting with conspiracy theories; one would think wolves would avoid such stubbornness to avoid implicating each other...perhaps one is a misguided innocent. But the game has been going their way for some time and they are conceivably overconfident.

I've decided to trust Firefoot for now as so many of my suspected foes have tried to use her as a catspaw. I trust neither Farael nor Lommy, with Lommy being the more suspicious of those two to me; I think Rikae said something about her seeming innocent because she was enjoying things so much, which doesn't follow to me - looks like covert gloating.

I shall stay my knife till after the lynch. And I'll vote to lynch

++LALWENDE

for now.

[Boromir88]

After some thorough consideration...I'm finding it difficult to believe Farael is a wolf. I just don't see a wolf not being involved in this kind of situation. It just doesn't seem like something a wolf would be doing in this spot.

Though I am more inclined to believe Rikae is the wolf here. Let's remember that Firefoot has been someone that has faced considerable pressure and tough suspicion the last two days...therefor perhaps the wolves were confident they could make a case against her and when Firefoot makes an admittingly suspicious looking slip that makes it easier for them. I'm thinking Firefoot made a mistake (an innocent one) and the wolves from the start were planning on trying to get her lynched as she has been facing tough heat this entire time in the village. I mean Firefoot did make a bad mistake, but wolves have to be very cautious with what they say, Firefoot doesn't seem like the type of person that would let something slip if she was a wolf. I'm not absolving Firefoot, but I'm more inclined to believe Rikae is the wolf in this spot.

With that being said, I find the most suspicious person today being Lalwende and this is probably the most confident I've felt this entire time (or even in a long time):

++Lalwende

[Mithalwen]

I am inclined to hang fire on Farael.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I think either Firefoot is an innocent that made a mistake and Rikae's jump on it is a wolf move to try and draw people away from Lal. Or Firefoot made a wolf slip and Rikae is correct and therefor innocent...hmm which one is it? I doubt both are wolves.

That's tricky indeed. Like Ang, I was almost ready consider Firefoot innocent before that, but now I'm not so sure anymore...

That is actually the reason why I'd be more comfortable with lynching Lal than with lynching Rikae...

And I'd really, really wish to hear more from Farael to make any assumptions about him. For example, he's the only one who's not accepted Ang's claim (because he hasn't been here) - and thus we can't be 100% sure of Anguirel's innocence. I'd also like to hear Farael's opinions on other people than me, since that would help me to conclude is he a wolf or not.

Let's just lynch a wolf toDay and it will be all easier tomorrow... for those who're still alive. Then we can actually conclude something from the dead wolf's opinions about other players and other players' attitudes about him/her.

Am I the only one who currently feels very un-Day3? This is more like Day4 or Day5, probably because so much people have already died...

EDIT: xed with Boro and Mith

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I mean Firefoot did make a bad mistake, but wolves have to be very cautious with what they say, Firefoot doesn't seem like the type of person that would let something slip if she was a wolf. I'm not absolving Firefoot, but I'm more inclined to believe Rikae is the wolf in this spot.

I don't get it, Boro, what was I supposed to do when I saw that? Ignore it? And what innocent reason could there possibly be? Apparently Firefoot is not the type who would make a slip as a wolf, but as an ordo she would forget that two people were still alive?
It sounds more like you've already decided you don't trust me, and therefore anyone I suspect must be innocent. Excuse me if I suspect people based on evidence, rather than "just because". I didn't realise logic had gone out of style in this game.

[Mithalwen]

I am just over half way through my review ..... and at the moment I think the most likely wolf combo is Lal, Firefoot and Rikae ... but I am not certain. it is the interraction so far... Lommy "feels" honest ..and if she is a wolf -fairplay.

Kath and Farael seem too disengaged but I am less sure of Kath and may be making a very wrong assumption on Farael based on what hasn't happened today......

[Thinlómien]

I just thought of this...

Actually Rikae and Firefoot could be both wolves. Just imagine the following scene: Firepaw mad a mistake. Wolfae saw it and realised someone will spot it sooner or later. So she decided to point it out herself to look good and save what was there to be saved in the wolves' point of view: her status, if the village was to find out Firepaw was a wolf.

EDIT: xed with Mith

[Boromir88]

Rikae, all I'm saying is as cautious as we all are about what we say, wolves have to be more cautious as they are the one's that fear staying alive more. And that it wouldn't surprise me one bit if the wolves have decided to keep Firefoot around to see if they can set her up for a lynching considering she has been one of the most highly suspected people this entire village. There's no need to get angry, my decision over you and Firefoot is not final, just pointing out what I think is happening...though I could very well make it final if you wish?

Edit: x-ed with Lommy and Mith

[Firefoot]

++LALWENDE

I think there's a very good chance that she's a wolf, and there doesn't seem to be much choice for me right now, anyway.

I'll be around, though.

[Mithalwen]

I don't see me finding enough evidence to put anyone ahead of her so I will stick to my guns....

++Lalwende

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

There's no need to get angry, my decision over you and Firefoot is not final, just pointing out what I think is happening...though I could very well make it final if you wish?

And I'm one of the most highly suspected people myself, both yesterday and today. If you want to vote for me, be my guest -I'm doing my best to help; and I'm not about to hold back any thoughts or information I think might be useful just to avoid being lynched myself. If I do, at least I've had my say.

[Durelin]

I like Boro's list of suspects, though I agree with bumping Lal up on the list... Even if I still think Rikae's on the top.

So now Rikae's jumping on Firefoot, because "no one will listen to her" about me and my lies. One of them is probably a wolf, and I think it's Rikae. She has gone with convenience when it comes to voting. Hey, at least she's been consistent in that, right...

Kath is a little more suspicious to me now, perhaps cause her vote doesn't feel right. It seems too early...but then again, we get one retract.

So we have to be careful, and watch out for a Wolf who's around near the deadline... So personally, I'm still saving "both" my votes.

I'm going to go read through the thread a bit more. Sorry I was not around until now.

((My internet was out.))

[Rikae]

No, Wolfalin, I'm "jumping on" your pal because she made the most egragarious slip I have ever seen and looks even more wolfish than you. Not that you don't look wolfish, and if she's revealed for what she is you won't look quite so innocent anymore.

[Rikae]

That is to say, look so innocent to everybody else. I'm on to you.

[Lalwendë]

Well I'm sticking with the prime suspects I've had since the last Day as I'm truly thrown by what happened last night and at the end of the last day. At a loss for any other breakthroughs I may as well. And why not, as inconsistency seems to be a factor shared by those both suspected and those not suspected right now. If I go in a new path I will be doomed and if I retread old ones I will be doomed. So I will stick to gut feelings and my convictions and can at least go out knowing I was tue to my own senses. Alas, no time for any analysis much tonight. (but I can do it again next time I play! Yay!) So long and thanks for all the fish...

++Firefoot

[Durelin]

That is to say, look so innocent to everybody else. I'm on to you.

And I'm shakin'...

Lal's been nice and consistent. Trying to lynch Firefoot, particularly because she conveniently made a mistake that can be "jumped on" as Rikae said. She also has expressed the thought that Lommy is innocent, while mentioning passingly Farael as still a suspect, and not mentioning Rikae at all.

I think she's setting things up nicely for the following Days...we should remember that.

[Durelin]

Okay, I didn't explain my point there very well...she might be distancing herself from Farael and Rikae, and setting up Lommy for tomorrow.

Anyway, I guess I'd better vote now.

++Lalwende

[Rikae]

OK, I know I'm putting myself on the line here if I'm wrong, but I really believe Lal is innocent. The case against her doesn't make any logical sense and I feel very strongly that there are wolves among those who are campaigning to lynch her. It feels like a mindless bandwagon and I don't understand it; there is more evidence against Firefoot, or Farael, than against her. I know I'm suspected, but try to look at the evidence on it's own merits. Remember, if we lynch an innocent today and Ang chooses badly, we'll lose the game tonight. Please read over the posts and consider your votes carefully.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Durelin

made a mistake that can be "jumped on" as Rikae said.

Actually, it was you who said that, hence the quotes. Stop putting words in my mouth.

[Thinlómien]

One thing that makes me think Lal's a wolf even more is her reactions to the current situation. If she was innocent, she'd be more desperate to stay alive, after all, if Ang decides to kill someone and gets it wrong, and the wolves slaughter 2 people at night, this lynch is a decisive one...
Now she seems to accept her defeat and death, something wolves (especially unexperienced ones) keep doing. (I know that from experience, that's just what I did when I was a wolf, and I ended up a Fenris.)

EDIT: xed with Rikae's later post

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

chooses badly, we'll lose the game tonight. Please read over the posts and consider your votes carefully.

I have and votes stays.. but I think you are my second choice so....

[Lalwendë]

No Durelin. I cannot get any handle on Lommy or Rikae as I've already said; they both seem far too confused to be trying to get away with anything. In a similar way, I can't get anything bad on you, though you are more careful. And Boro seems far too solid (though this could be a trap in itself as he is SO steadfast!). Everyone else has something or other fishy about them though. But like I've said there's been no time for much in-depth stuff for me today as there's too much going on here I'm afraid, so after yesterday's debacle I'm going to have to stick to my original suspicions; I would be lying to myself to do otherwise, sorry. It's stark but that's the way it has to be for me today.

[Durelin]

Rikae, hon, you corrected me to say that you specifically jumped on Firefoot's mistake. That's what you said. So, sorry, yes, you are right. The quotes are in the wrong place.

Ang - I think Farael's more likely than Lommy if Lal is a Wolf.

[Anguirel]

If we lynch an innocent today, Rikae, I will be highly unlikely to choose at all.

But I feel that of this trio of persecuted Firefoot accusers - Lalwende, Kath and Rikae - one is almost certainly innocent and two may be. I am increasingly certain that there is a wolf operating within the cosy consensus orchestrated by the Gifteds, tagging along with Boro, Durelin and I. I am at present inclined to think it is Lommy...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

One thing that makes me think Lal's a wolf even more is her reactions to the current situation.

That occured to me Lommy...... and I think I will leave my vote go now.... if Nog can't be prompt .. it is a frosty night and I have half an hour's drive ahead of me. goodnight and bon courage.....